Nagoya Business Hotels: Asian Games OCC 86.4% at T-45 vs 59.1% After

Posted: 2026.11.02

Comparing inventory movements at 54 business hotels (10,279 rooms) in Naka Ward, Nagoya, across the 20th Asian Games (held September 19 – October 4, 2026) and the periods before and after, the big difference was not how hotels sold out at the last minute but how much room the market had left 45 days before the stay date. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for stay dates during the Games averaged 86.4% at T-45, with only 10.4pt added by the day before arrival. For October 5–14, after the Games, it climbed 33.8pt, from 59.1% to 92.9%. This article uses that difference in shape to show how hotels can switch the way they release inventory between event periods and normal periods.

Scope: business hotels in Naka Ward, Nagoya. Inventory distributions cover N=44–54 properties; booking curves cover N=44–48 properties (8,109–8,976 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of October 31, 2026.

Key Takeaways

— Estimated OCC at T-45 was 86.4% during the Games vs 59.1% after (Games: Sep 19 – Oct 4, 2026; post-Games: Oct 5–14; N=45–47 properties). Pickup to the day before arrival was 10.4pt vs 33.8pt: in an event period, demand comes in earlier.
— Inventory ran out 8+ days before arrival on 19.2% of property-nights during the Games vs 5.4% after (fixed cohort of 54 properties, 10,279 rooms). Run-outs 1–7 days before were almost identical at 24.7% and 24.5%.
— "70% of normal-period nights sell out at the last minute" is a misreading. Of the 71.4% for October 1–14, 54.2 points are property-nights where zero inventory was first seen on the stay date itself; limited to 1–7 days before, the share is only 17.2%.
— Estimated settled ADR was ¥16,800 in September 2026 (N=75), +78.2% YoY. Because this is a monthly level, whether early run-outs left money on the table must be checked against each hotel’s own date-level data.
— Looking ahead, Saturday November 14 already shows estimated OCC of 99.7% with 15 days to go (observed October 30, 2026), above the Games-period average of 92.5% at the same lead time.

Distribution in 14-day windows: "70% last-minute sell-outs in normal periods" is a misreading

Start with the baseline numbers. Counting property-nights in 14-day stay-date windows, the share where zero listed inventory was first observed "within 7 days" of arrival was 42.3% for September 15–28 (44 properties, 614 property-nights) and 71.4% for October 1–14 (53 properties, 732 property-nights). The share where zero was observed more than 45 days out was 32.1% and 15.6% respectively. At first glance, the former looks like an event period that sold out early and the latter like a normal period that sold out at the last minute.

But it is too early to read this contrast as "event period vs normal period." First, the October 1–14 window includes the last four days of the Games. Of the 114 property-nights with zero observed more than 45 days out, 67 were stays on October 1–4; for those four days alone the share is 32.2%, a Games-like level. Limited to October 5–14, it drops to 9.0%, so the impression changes a lot depending only on how the window is cut. Conversely, the September 15–28 window includes four pre-opening days, and September 15–18 came in at just 11.4%.

Table 1: When zero listed inventory was first observed (business hotels, Naka Ward, Nagoya)
Stay-date window	Properties	Property-nights	First zero on stay date	1–7 days before	8–30 days before	31–45 days before	More than 45 days before (incl. relisted)	Zero never observed
Sep 15–28 (14-day window)	44	614	22.3%	20.0%	18.2%	5.2%	32.1%	2.1%
of which Sep 15–18 (pre-opening)	44	176	21.6%	49.4%	13.6%	4.0%	11.4%	0.0%
of which Sep 19–28 (Games)	44	438	22.6%	8.2%	20.1%	5.7%	40.4%	3.0%
Oct 1–14 (14-day window)	53	732	54.2%	17.2%	9.3%	2.2%	15.6%	1.5%
of which Oct 1–4 (Games)	52	208	40.9%	8.2%	13.9%	1.4%	32.2%	3.4%
of which Oct 5–14 (post-Games)	53	524	59.5%	20.8%	7.4%	2.5%	9.0%	0.8%

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Second, "within 7 days" needs to be split. Of the 71.4% for October 1–14, 54.2 points are property-nights that still had inventory the day before and first showed zero in the stay-date observation. On the stay date, sales cut-off and sell-out overlap, so these cannot be used to judge a sell-out. Limited to 1–7 days before, the share is 17.2%, hardly different from 20.0% for September 15–28. In other words, it is not that "70% of normal-period nights sell out at the last minute"; the natural reading is that most normal-period nights reached the stay date with inventory still open the day before.

Third, a property-night with zero observed more than 45 days out does not necessarily mean a sell-out. Observations more than 45 days before the stay date include the state before inventory has been loaded and may not reflect booking progress (observation coverage: 99.7% for the 44 properties / 98.7% for the 53 properties). In fact, inventory reappeared at some point between T-45 and the day before on 164 of 197 such property-nights (83.2%) for September 15–28 and 87 of 114 (76.3%) for October 1–14. Calling these "early sell-outs" and discussing missed pricing opportunities would start from the wrong premise. From here on, the comparison is redone using only observations from T-45 to the day before.

Comparing the same 54 properties: the event-period difference shows up 8+ days out

To put the comparison on the same footing, we fixed the 54 properties (10,279 rooms) that listed inventory of at least 30% of their rooms during the pre-opening window of August 31 – September 13, and tracked the same group through every period. The test has two steps: "was inventory still open the day before?" and, if not, "when did it last run out?" Inventory that disappeared and came back is counted at the last run-out, so apparent early sell-outs caused by relisting are excluded.

Table 2: How inventory ended for the same 54 properties (judged on observations from T-45 to the day before)
Stay-date period	Property-nights	Open the day before	Ran out 1–7 days before	Ran out 8–30 days before	Ran out 31–45 days before	None from T-45	Total 8+ days before	Listed inventory at T-45 (% of rooms, median)	Listed inventory day before (% of rooms, median)
Aug 31 – Sep 13 (pre-opening)	756	90.7%	8.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.5%	36.3%	10.3%
Sep 14–18 (just before opening)	270	36.3%	48.5%	11.5%	0.7%	3.0%	15.2%	20.0%	0.0%
Sep 19 – Oct 4 (Asian Games)	851	56.2%	24.7%	6.3%	3.3%	9.5%	19.2%	6.4%	0.8%
Oct 5–14 (post-Games)	534	70.0%	24.5%	2.1%	0.6%	2.8%	5.4%	33.1%	3.9%
Oct 18–24 (Asian Para Games)	371	59.0%	31.3%	4.3%	0.3%	5.1%	9.7%	15.7%	0.8%
Oct 25–30	322	77.0%	21.7%	0.6%	0.0%	0.6%	1.2%	35.3%	4.0%

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

What stands out during the Games is that inventory ran out 8+ days before arrival on 19.2% of property-nights, more than three times the post-Games 5.4%. Meanwhile, the share that ran out 1–7 days before was almost the same: 24.7% during the Games vs 24.5% after. What grew in the event period was not last-minute sell-outs but the group of nights whose inventory disappeared early. During the Asian Para Games (October 18–24), the 8+ days share was 9.7%: smaller, but in the same direction. Inventory between the two Games and during Para Games week is examined from a prefecture-wide view in Aichi Hotels After the Asian Games: Para Games Week Hits 82% Occupancy.

Another point not to miss: even during the Games, 56.2% of property-nights still had inventory open the day before. That said, the median listed inventory the day before was just 0.8% of rooms, very thin compared with 3.9% after the Games and 10.3% before opening. Many properties got close to selling out but kept a small amount of inventory to the end. The likely background is how little inventory was listed at T-45 in the first place: the median was 6.4% of rooms during the Games, against 36.3% before opening and 33.1% after.

The narrow listings also show up in property counts by date. The number of properties where listed inventory of at least 30% of rooms was seen at least once fell from an average of 46.3 before opening to 19.3 during the Games, with a low of 9 out of 74 on Friday September 25. The average was 39.7 after the Games and 27.6 during the Asian Para Games. Low counts like these can come from rooms already being sold, or from hotels limiting listings to hold rooms for groups and officials or to favor their own channels, so inventory numbers alone cannot separate the causes.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Booking curves: the Games period was largely decided by T-45, normal periods build late

The way the market as a whole progressed shows clearly in the shape of the booking curves. Estimated OCC for the Games period moved from 86.4% at T-45 to 87.5% at T-30 and 92.7% at T-14, reaching 96.8% the day before. For October 5–14, after the Games, it was 59.1% at T-45, 65.8% at T-30, 76.0% at T-14 and 92.9% the day before; half of the 33.8pt pickup, 16.9pt, came in the final two weeks. Curves comparing city and business hotels across Aichi for October are analyzed in Aichi October Booking Curves: City–Business Gap Narrows 8.0pt to 1.8pt.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Table 3: Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) at fixed lead times, period averages
Stay-date period	Sample	T-45	T-30	T-14	T-7	Day before	Pickup
Aug 31 – Sep 13 (pre-opening)	N=44–46	59.4%	62.9%	69.6%	76.4%	87.1%	+27.7pt
Sep 14–18 (just before opening)	N=46	75.7%	76.9%	86.1%	91.8%	97.7%	+22.0pt
Sep 19 – Oct 4 (Asian Games)	N=45–46	86.4%	87.5%	92.7%	94.1%	96.8%	+10.4pt
of which Sep 24 – Oct 4 (excl. holidays)	N=45–46	85.2%	86.2%	91.6%	93.4%	96.5%	+11.3pt
Oct 5–14 (post-Games)	N=46–47	59.1%	65.8%	76.0%	83.3%	92.9%	+33.8pt
Oct 18–24 (Asian Para Games)	N=47	79.2%	83.9%	88.3%	90.7%	96.0%	+16.8pt
Oct 25–30	N=47–48	59.0%	65.2%	75.6%	82.6%	91.9%	+32.9pt

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

One caveat is the overlap with public holidays. September 19–23 was the Silver Week holiday run, so the Games-period average includes a holiday effect. Still, excluding the holidays, September 24 – October 4 shows the same shape: 85.2% at T-45 and 11.3pt pickup. By day of week, the T-45 average for Sunday–Thursday stays was 85.1% during the Games vs 57.7% after, and for Friday–Saturday 89.3% vs 64.8%, so the gap was larger on weekdays. Rather than extra weekend demand, demand came in earlier across the board, weekdays included.

Note that, by definition, this estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as consumed. The 86.4% at T-45 does not mean 86.4% of rooms had been sold at that point; it means that little inventory was available to buy on OTAs and similar channels. So this level is best used not as a number to compare directly with a hotel’s own sales, but as a yardstick for "how many rooms are still available to buy on OTAs in the market."

Price: September estimated settled ADR +78.2% YoY, but not enough to judge missed revenue

Overlaying price on the inventory movements, the level in the month containing the Games stands out clearly. Estimated settled ADR for business hotels in Naka Ward was ¥16,800 in September 2026 (N=75, final), up 78.2% from ¥9,400 (N=78) a year earlier. In August, just before, it was ¥8,700 (N=75), 11.1% below ¥9,800 (N=78) a year earlier, which makes September’s jump all the more striking. Across Aichi, September was ¥11,700 (N=321), up 53.2% from ¥7,600 (N=324), while Tokyo in the same month was ¥13,400 (N=914), up only 2.2% from ¥13,100 (N=894). (For final September figures by hotel type and how to set next year’s baseline, see Asian Games September: Aichi City ADR +53.7%, Business +53.2% YoY.)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

However, this is a monthly level. It does not show whether properties whose inventory ran out early sold cheaper than those that kept inventory open until the end. Estimated settled ADR is canonical at the monthly level, and whether closing inventory early meant lost revenue cannot be judged from market aggregates. In other words, an early run-out is not "evidence of missed revenue" but "the starting point for a hypothesis" to be checked against a hotel’s own data. Levels for October onward must wait for month-end finalization to be read on the same basis, so they are not included in the YoY comparison here.

Applying it to November: some dates already don’t look like normal days

These yardsticks also work for current sales. Comparing figures observed on October 30, 2026 with averages at the same lead time, Saturday November 14 showed estimated OCC of 99.7% with 15 days to go and a sold-out property rate (estimated share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and similar channels) of 79.2%, above the Games-period average of 92.5%. Saturdays November 21 and November 28 also exceeded the Games average at 92.5%, and November 26–27 are close to it. On the other hand, many weekdays are close to the post-Games average, so the month as a whole is not running high.

Table 4: Upcoming November dates (observed October 30, 2026; N=48 properties / 8,976 rooms)
Stay date	Days to go	Estimated OCC	Sold-out property rate (est.)	Games average at same lead time	Post-Games average at same lead time
Sat, Nov 14	15 days	99.7%	79.2%	92.5%	75.1%
Sun, Nov 15	16 days	89.6%	12.5%	92.1%	74.2%
Sat, Nov 21	22 days	92.5%	43.8%	90.0%	69.9%
Thu, Nov 26	27 days	84.7%	12.5%	88.6%	67.3%
Fri, Nov 27	28 days	86.4%	8.3%	88.2%	66.6%
Sat, Nov 28	29 days	92.5%	37.5%	87.9%	66.1%

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

These figures reflect sales as of now and may change. Identifying the demand drivers is beyond the scope of this article, so check them against local event calendars and your own booking mix.

For revenue managers at business hotels in Naka Ward, Nagoya: implications and action plan

Implication 1: The key decisions come before T-45. During the Games (September 19 – October 4, 2026), the market had already reached estimated OCC of 86.4% at T-45, and added only 1.1pt from there to T-30. Setting prices and listed inventory for published tournament and major event dates should start without waiting for T-45.

Implication 2: Don’t treat late-stage inventory in normal periods as "leftovers." After the Games, the market added 16.9pt in the final two weeks, and 70.0% of property-nights still had inventory open the day before. On dates where demand gathers late, there is more to gain from adjusting the price of remaining inventory day by day than from cutting inventory early.

Implication 3: Check early run-outs against your own results. In the market, 19.2% of property-nights ran out of inventory 8+ days before arrival during the Games, but that in itself says nothing about whether it was good or bad. Lining up when your inventory ran out, the selling price at that time, and the market pickup afterward lets you examine, date by date, whether there was room to price higher.

Implication 4: Holding a small amount of inventory is an option even in event periods. Even during the Games, 56.2% of property-nights kept inventory open until the day before, at a median of 0.8% of rooms. How much inventory to hold for last-minute demand and resale of cancellations should be considered as part of event-period planning.

Action plan (by timing)
Timing	Action	Trigger (figures from this article)	Aim
Before T-45	Overlay published tournament and event dates on the stay calendar and review initial price and listed-inventory settings date by date	During the Games (Sep–Oct 2026), the market had reached estimated OCC of 86.4% by T-45	Avoid late decisions and identify the dates to act on first
T-45	Compare your own pace with the two market levels and sort dates into "event-type" and "normal-type"	Market near 86.4% suggests event-type; around 59% suggests normal-type	Switch subsequent pricing and inventory holding by date
T-45 to T-30	For event-type dates, check price tiers before closing inventory and review the lowest-priced inventory first	During the Games, the market added 1.1pt from T-45 to T-30 (86.4% → 87.5%)	Consider selecting demand through price rather than a blanket stop-sell
T-30 to T-14	For normal-type dates, check for slow pickup and consider promotions or price changes only on dates that keep lagging	After the Games, the market added +10.2pt over the same span (65.8% → 76.0%)	Avoid cutting prices too early
T-14 to day before	Keep inventory open and keep pricing on normal-type dates; on event-type dates, consider holding a small amount of inventory to the end	After the Games, the market added +16.9pt from T-14; even during the Games, 56.2% of property-nights kept inventory open the day before	Leave room to capture late demand
After the stay	Record by date when your inventory ran out and the rate achieved over the same span, and review them alongside final monthly figures	Market share of run-outs 8+ days before: 19.2% during the Games, 5.4% after	Build your own benchmarks for the next event

Summary: three yardsticks to tell event periods from normal periods

To sum up, there are three reusable yardsticks. The first is the market level at T-45: this time, 86.4% during the Games vs 59.1% after, a 27.3pt gap. The second is pickup from T-45 to the day before: 10.4pt during the Games, 16.8pt during the Asian Para Games and 33.8pt after the Games, directly reflecting how early demand arrived. The third is the share of nights where inventory ran out 8+ days before, with 19.2% during the Games and 5.4% after as reference points.

Use these three to sort event-type dates from normal-type dates, then spend time on early price and inventory design for the former and on late-stage pricing for the latter. If you also check how your own inventory ran out and the rates you achieved, date by date, you will be able to tell before the next opportunity whether early run-outs meant lost revenue.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. During the Asian Games, when did business hotels in Naka Ward, Nagoya fill up?

A. For stay dates during the Games (September 19 – October 4, 2026), estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) averaged 86.4% at T-45, with only 10.4pt added up to 96.8% the day before. For October 5–14, after the Games, it rose 33.8pt from 59.1% at T-45 to 92.9% the day before. During the Games, most of the outcome was decided by T-45.

Q. Does it mean 70% of normal-period nights sell out at the last minute?

A. No. Of the 71.4% of property-nights in the October 1–14 window where zero listed inventory was first observed "within 7 days," 54.2 points first showed zero on the stay date itself. Limited to 1–7 days before, the share is 17.2%, hardly different from 20.0% for September 15–28.

Q. Can property-nights with zero inventory more than 45 days out be treated as early sell-outs?

A. Not as they are. Observations more than 45 days out include the state before inventory is loaded; inventory reappeared between T-45 and the day before on 83.2% of such property-nights for September 15–28 and 76.3% for October 1–14. This article limits observations to T-45 through the day before and compares based on when inventory last ran out.

Q. Can estimated OCC at T-45 be compared directly with my hotel’s occupancy?

A. Estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as consumed, so the Games-period 86.4% at T-45 does not mean "86.4% were sold"; it shows that little inventory was available to buy on OTAs and similar channels. It is better used as a yardstick for how many rooms remain available in the market than compared directly with your own sales.

Q. Does September’s price rise show revenue missed through early sell-outs?

A. No. Estimated settled ADR for business hotels in Naka Ward was ¥16,800 in September 2026 (N=75), up 78.2% from ¥9,400 a year earlier, but this is a monthly level. Market aggregates cannot show whether properties that ran out early sold cheaper, so line up when your inventory ran out, the selling price, and the market pickup afterward, date by date, to check.

About the Data in This Article

Estimated OCC: occupancy based on OTA-listed inventory = 100 − 100 × rooms remaining on OTAs ÷ total rooms. The sample is a fixed cohort of properties listing at least 30% of total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date). It is an estimate based on how inventory sold on OTAs is consumed and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it reads higher because unlisted rooms are counted as consumed).
Booking curves: based on observations from 45 days before the stay date up to the latest.
Estimated settled ADR: the settled price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × hotel-type factor, an ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are final; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error of 6.6% against published operating results.
Scope: business hotels in Naka Ward, Nagoya. Table 1 covers properties with listed inventory of at least 30% of rooms in each 14-day window (44 and 53 properties). Table 2 fixes the 54 properties (10,279 rooms) that met the same condition in the August 31 – September 13 window. The curves and Tables 3 and 4 use fixed cohorts by stay date, N=44–48 properties (8,109–8,976 rooms). Figure 1 shows the number of properties meeting the condition out of 72–74 observed. Estimated settled ADR: Naka Ward N=75–78 properties, Aichi N=321–324, Tokyo N=894–914.
Table 2 criteria: "Open the day before" means property-nights with listed inventory on the day before the stay date (or the latest observation if none that day). "Ran out" is the point at which listed inventory reached zero without reappearing. Sold-out property rate is the estimated share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and similar channels.
Period definitions: based on the Asian Games running September 19 – October 4, 2026 and the Asian Para Games October 18–24, 2026.
Data as of October 31, 2026. Sales and inventory change daily, so the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval.

References and Sources

■ Data Sources

MetroEngines Research inventory and price observation data for accommodation (based on listings on major booking sites). For business hotels in Naka Ward, Nagoya, we aggregated listed inventory by stay date (observations from T-45 to the day before), estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) and monthly estimated settled ADR (final). Tournament dates are based on the official website and materials published by Nanzan University.

■ Calculation Assumptions

The inventory distribution (Table 1) uses properties with listed inventory of at least 30% of rooms in each 14-day window (44 and 53 properties); how inventory ended (Table 2) uses a fixed cohort of 54 properties (10,279 rooms) that met the same condition on August 31 – September 13, 2026; booking curves and Tables 3 and 4 use fixed cohorts by stay date (N=44–48 properties). "Ran out" is judged at the point listed inventory reached zero without reappearing, which excludes apparent early sell-outs caused by relisting.

■ Limitations and Caveats

Estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as consumed, so it reads higher than actual room occupancy. Inventory data alone cannot tell whether a fall in listed inventory reflects sales or reduced listings to hold rooms for groups and officials or to favor own channels. Estimated settled ADR is a monthly level and cannot show whether an individual property’s early run-outs meant missed revenue on price. Prices from October onward are not yet final and are excluded from the YoY comparison.