Settled ADR estimates in Aichi Prefecture jumped a full step above the prior year in September 2026. For city hotels (N=31 properties), the settled figure was ¥18,141, up 53.7% from ¥11,803 in September 2025; for business hotels (N=321 properties), it was ¥11,701, up 53.2% from ¥7,638. Settled August had been below the prior year — city −10.0%, business −3.6% — so both the sign and the size of the YoY change flipped within a single month. The driver was the overlap of the 20th Asian Games (Aichi-Nagoya), which opened on September 19, with a five-day holiday run that began on opening day: estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for both city and business hotels in the prefecture stayed pinned above 95% during the Games. This article decomposes the jump using YoY between settled months, then — referring to how Osaka’s rates came back in the year after the Expo — sets out how to fold an event month into the following year’s baseline and where to place the post-event rate floor.

Scope: Aichi Prefecture city hotels N=31 properties and business hotels N=321 properties (as of September 2026). The price metric in this article is the settled ADR estimate (the contracted price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of: October 23, 2026.

Settled September YoY — From Below Last Year in August to +53%, With City and Business Jumping by the Same Margin

Start with the comparison between settled months. The settled ADR estimate for Aichi city hotels ran at +4.5% to +20.5% YoY in January–May 2026, but then fell below the prior year for three straight summer months: −2.0% in June, −1.9% in July and −10.0% in August. Business hotels followed the same pattern, at +2.0% to +12.3% in January–May and slightly below the prior year in June–August at −0.1%, −1.2% and −3.6%. The August dip largely reflects a high base in August 2025 (city ¥13,368 and business ¥8,149 were both among the highest monthly values of 2025), and should not be read as a collapse in demand within the prefecture.

September, however, does not sit on that trajectory. City hotels reached ¥18,141 (prior year ¥11,803, +53.7%) and business hotels ¥11,701 (prior year ¥7,638, +53.2%) — two categories whose price levels differ by about 1.5x moved up by almost the same ratio. With the average YoY for January–August 2026 at just +5.7% for city and +2.7% for business, September’s jump is an outlier sitting 40–50 points above that trend. Compared with the January–August 2026 averages (city ¥12,585, business ¥7,786), the settled September figures are 1.44x for city and 1.50x for business. For where this +53% sits nationally, our Business Hotel ADR Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY, Median +7.9% lines up all 47 prefectures side by side.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Aichi Prefecture city hotels, N=30–32 properties. October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales and may change)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Aichi Prefecture business hotels, N=302–329 properties. October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales and may change)

In the year-over-year chart, the 2024 and 2025 lines run broadly parallel despite month-to-month bumps; September 2025 was up 18.0% for city (¥10,004→¥11,803) and 9.0% for business (¥7,005→¥7,638). The 2026 line ran just above or slightly below the 2025 line through August, then broke out in September. The dotted line from October onward is an estimate based on current sales — city ¥19,400 (N=31) and business ¥12,586 (N=310), close to September’s height — but because the Games continued until October 4 and this is a snapshot mid-sale, a simple comparison with settled values has to wait until the month settles.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (settled ADR estimate between settled months, tax-excluded equivalent. City N=30–31 properties, business N=319–329 properties)

Daily Estimated OCC in September — 80s on the 1st–14th Before the Opening, Pinned Above 95% From the 19th

Tracking estimated OCC day by day for the same September (based on OTA-listed inventory; Aichi city hotels 21–23 properties / 3,504–3,674 rooms, business hotels 171–175 properties / 24,654–26,210 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites) makes the intra-month structure clear. On September 1–14, city hotels averaged 80.4% and business hotels 84.8%, a shape no different from a normal month, with just one peak on Saturday the 5th (city 86.6%, business 88.8%). From the 15th, however, the picture changed: city hotels began rising before the opening — 93.8% on the 15th, 95.6% on the 16th and 96.6% on the 17th — reaching 97.5% on opening day, Saturday the 19th, and a monthly high of 99.4% on Sunday the 20th. Business hotels traced the same curve, hitting 98.5% on the 16th and 99.9% on the 20th, leaving almost no listed inventory.

Two layers of demand overlapped in this period. One is Games-related stays — athletes, officials and media — and the rise in estimated OCC from the 15th–18th, before the opening, reads as this layer arriving early. The other is general spectators and tourists: in 2026, a five-day holiday run from Saturday the 19th to Wednesday the 23rd (Autumnal Equinox Day), spanning Respect for the Aged Day and a citizens’ holiday, coincided with the opening, and the 99% readings on the 20th–21st can be seen as the result of both layers stacking up on the same days. On the 23rd, the last day of the holiday run, occupancy eased to city 89.7% and business 91.7%, but from the 24th it stayed in the 92–96% range for city and 95–98% for business, holding at city 95.6% and business 96.7% through the 30th. The 19th–30th averages were city 95.4% and business 97.2%, which works out to 11.6 and 9.7 points above the pre-opening (1st–18th) averages of city 83.8% and business 87.5%. How far inventory disappeared at the property level on September 20, the day after the opening, is traced on a remaining-room basis in Asian Games 2026: 96% of Aichi Hotels Sold Out Sep 20, Chita Has Room.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (September 2026, estimated OCC by stay date. City N=21–23 properties, business N=171–175 properties. Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date up to the most recent)

The monthly settled ADR estimate reached +53% because these near-sold-out days continued for 12 days in the second half of the month, pulling the monthly average up toward the high second-half rates. Taking only the normal sales conditions of the 1st–14th, it is natural to assume the underlying rate trend was an extension of January–August, and September is more accurately treated as “a month in which half the days were exceptional.”

Osaka in the Year After the Expo — Rates Returned Not to the Event Year but to the “Trend Line of Two Years Earlier”

In thinking about how to fold an event-month spike into next year’s plan, the largest recent precedent is Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, held from April 13 to October 13, 2025. For Osaka Prefecture city hotels (N=83–97 properties), the settled ADR estimate for April–September 2025, overlapping the Expo period, was up 27.6% to 47.6% YoY, and the six-month average rose sharply by 33.4% from ¥12,103 to ¥16,144. Business hotels (N=484–504 properties) moved even more, with the same six-month average up 43.5% from ¥8,951 to ¥12,846.

Looking at settled figures for April–September 2026, the year after the Expo, however, the city six-month average was ¥12,579, down 22.1% from 2025, and business was ¥8,917, down 30.6% — the event-year level fell away almost entirely. What matters here is where it fell to. Compared with pre-Expo 2024, the 2026 level was +3.9% for city and −0.4% for business: both categories had returned almost exactly to their level of two years earlier. By month, city hotels in 2026 varied — +7.2% vs 2024 in April–May, −6.0% in June, +15.4% in September — but business hotels stayed within a range of −5.5% to +6.5% vs 2024 in every month from April to September. The path shown by Osaka’s settled figures is that rates built up in an event year do not become the next year’s baseline, and the rate floor returns to the pre-event trend line. How to translate this path into monthly base ADRs and minimum rates on the Osaka side is set out in Osaka Jul-Sep Settled ADR: City Down 22-25%, Business 32-34% YoY.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Osaka Prefecture, settled ADR estimate for settled months, tax-excluded equivalent, simple average of April–September in each year)

Applying this framework to Aichi’s September, the path Osaka followed suggests that the starting point for September 2027 should not be ¥18,141, but the pre-event September 2025 level (city ¥11,803, business ¥7,638) plus the trend observed in January–August 2026 (city +5.7%, business +2.7%) — that is, around ¥12,500 for city and around ¥7,800 for business. Of course, the Games lasted about half a month while the Expo ran for half a year, and because Aichi’s event period was under a month, the next-year pullback may also come out smaller than Osaka’s. But that difference is about “how many days spiked,” not “how large the spike was,” and the point that per-day rates return to the pre-event trend line is likely to hold.

For Revenue Managers Running City and Business Hotels in Aichi — Implications and Action Plan

Action Plan by Time Horizon — This Week, Within Two Weeks, Next Month

Source: Prepared by HotelBank Editorial Team (decision triggers are based on the market figures presented in this article; checking them against your own results is assumed)

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading an Event Month

September 2026 in Aichi was a month in which rates rose by the same ratio regardless of category price level: city ¥18,141 (+53.7%) and business ¥11,701 (+53.2%). The yardsticks for handling these figures can be organized into three. First, split the month. Estimated OCC was in the 80s on the 1st–14th and above 95% on the 19th–30th; a normal period and an exceptional period coexist within the month, and the monthly average is pulled up by the second-half outliers. Second, set next year’s baseline on the line of the pre-event year plus the trend. Osaka’s settled figures for the year after the Expo show a path of −22.1% to −30.6% vs the event year but roughly flat vs two years earlier; event-year rates did not become the next year’s expectation. Third, use the settled value for the same month last year as the reference point for the post-event rate floor. Current estimates for October–December are snapshots mid-sale; placing the floor yardstick on the line of last year’s settled values (city ¥12,996–¥13,798, business ¥7,681–¥8,416) plus the trend avoids deep cuts dragged down from September’s highs. The Games closed on October 4. The coming months will test how well the memory of an exceptional month is translated into next year’s plan.

About the Data

Frequently Asked Questions

References and Sources

■ Data sources

Monthly settled ADR estimates for city and business hotels in Aichi and Osaka Prefectures (January 2024–December 2026, tax-excluded equivalent), estimated from OTA and other sales data collected by MetroEngines Research, and estimated OCC by stay date for Aichi Prefecture in September 2026 (based on OTA-listed inventory, fixed cohort). The Games period is based on information published by Aichi Now and the organizing committee.

■ Calculation assumptions

YoY is calculated only between settled months (the same month in 2025 and 2026). The January–August trend is the ratio of simple January–August averages in each year (city +5.7%, business +2.7%). The reference level for September 2027 (around ¥12,500 for city, around ¥7,800 for business) is a guide obtained by applying this trend to the settled September 2025 value and is not a demand forecast. The Osaka comparison uses the simple April–September average for each year.

■ Limitations

October–December 2026 values are current estimates mid-sale and have not been compared with settled values. Estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as sold and therefore runs higher than actual room occupancy. Property counts vary by month (Aichi city 30–32, business 302–329). Osaka’s Expo and Aichi’s Asian Games differ in length, so the way rates come back the following year will not necessarily be the same.