Over the 2026-27 year-end and New Year period, government offices close from Tuesday, December 29, 2026 through Sunday, January 3, 2027; anyone who takes Monday, December 28 off gets a nine-day break starting Saturday, December 26. Looking at monthly room rates for Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto, Hokkaido and Okinawa as compiled by MetroEngines Research in mid-October, Tokyo’s estimated settled ADR falls 22.0%, from ¥17,500 in December 2026 (N=1,077 properties) to ¥13,700 in January 2027 (N=1,029). Against the finalized figures for the same months a year earlier, December is up 10.6% and January up 3.5%, so the year-end peak itself is being set higher than last year. Monthly averages, however, hide both the single-night spike on December 31 and the weekday trough in January leading up to Coming of Age Day.

This article first pins down December and January estimated settled ADR for the five markets, both year on year and as a month-to-month step. It then plots daily listed prices by segment from December 26 to January 4 to establish whether the peak falls on New Year’s Eve, New Year’s Day, or December 30, the peak of the homecoming rush. Finally, using last year’s finalized occupancy (Japan Tourism Agency) and daily prices, it examines how weekdays were filled up to the Coming of Age Day three-day weekend (January 9–11, 2027), and sets out a day-by-day pricing design to help operators decide which nights to defend and which to bring back down early.

Monthly Estimated Settled ADR — Year on Year and the December-to-January Step in 5 Markets

Start with monthly levels. Table 1 sets the five markets’ estimated settled ADR for the prior-year period (December 2025 and January 2026, finalized) beside the current season (December 2026 and January 2027, based on listings at the survey date). Tokyo is ¥17,500 in December against ¥13,700 in January, a month-to-month step of −22.0%, deeper than last year’s −16.6%. This is less because January has fallen than because December is up a sharp 10.6% year on year; January, too, is 3.5% above last year’s finalized figure. Kyoto goes from ¥17,400 in December to ¥13,600 in January (−22.1%), almost the same step as Tokyo, but its year-on-year changes diverge: −2.7% in December and +2.9% in January, meaning December is being priced below last year’s strong close.

Osaka’s step, by contrast, is a shallow −4.8%. December is set low at −5.0% year on year while January is +5.8% above last year, so the year-end peak has been held down and January thickened. Hokkaido is the only one of the five markets where January is higher than December (+4.5%), and its year-on-year changes stand out at +31.0% for December and +24.7% for January. Hokkaido’s January sample, however, is smaller (N=746) than December’s (N=831), and may be pulled up by the mix of properties that post snow-season pricing early, so current levels should be read with upside bias in mind (the gap between listed and settled winter rates in Hokkaido is compared across five prefectures in Snow Country Winter ADR at 40–50% of Listed; Only Hokkaido Up in Feb). Okinawa is almost flat at ¥11,500 in December and ¥11,200 in January, with mild year-on-year gains of +5.1% and +1.3%.

Figure 1. Estimated settled ADR in 5 markets — prior year (finalized) vs current season (listing-based)

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

N = number of properties covered in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / Dec 2026 / Jan 2027. Dec 2026 and Jan 2027 are estimated settled ADR based on listings at the survey date (October 2026) and will change as stay dates approach. Year-on-year changes compare with finalized months.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Splitting by segment makes the composition of the step clearer (Table 2). Tokyo business hotels go from ¥17,100 in December (+12.2% YoY) to ¥13,200 in January (+5.3%), while city hotels go from ¥28,500 (−9.3%) to ¥23,200 (−12.3%): within Tokyo, business hotels are above last year and city hotels below. Kyoto business hotels are well above last year’s finalized January (+12.1%), whereas Kyoto ryokan sit at ¥30,300 in December (−9.1%) and ¥30,300 in January (−3.4%), with virtually no step between the two months. Ryokan hold their level across months and have a seasonal shape distinct from the deep step of city-type hotels. Osaka ryokan are also priced strongly for January (+25.7% YoY) and should be read separately from city-type pricing.

Segments with fewer than 20 properties, or containing a month below 60% of the series median, are not shown (resorts in Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto; city hotels and ryokan in Okinawa; ryokan in Tokyo).

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Daily Listed Prices Dec 26–Jan 4 — All 5 Markets Peak on New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day; Dec 30 Is Not the Peak

Figure 2 draws the shape of the peak that monthly figures cannot show, using daily listed prices (area median of each property’s all-plan average). Tokyo, all segments, starts at ¥37,800 on Saturday, December 26, dips to ¥33,800 on Sunday, December 27, then climbs in steps: ¥36,600 on Tuesday, December 29, ¥38,600 on Wednesday, December 30, and ¥44,100 on Thursday, December 31. New Year’s Day is ¥36,200, 0.82x New Year’s Eve, followed by ¥33,300 on Saturday, January 2, ¥26,900 on Sunday, January 3 and ¥23,500 on Monday, January 4, falling quickly back to weekday levels toward the end of the holiday. December 30, when outbound homecoming trains are most crowded, is only the step before New Year’s Eve in terms of room rates.

This shape is common to all five markets. In Kyoto, December 31 (¥55,700) and January 1 (¥55,900) stand at almost the same height, while in Hokkaido (¥40,200 → ¥40,800) and Okinawa (¥37,200 → ¥38,200) New Year’s Day is slightly higher. Osaka peaks at ¥27,500 on New Year’s Eve and drops to ¥24,300 (0.89x) on New Year’s Day. In other words, the night urban lodging demand is priced highest is the night the year turns, which does not coincide with the homecoming peak. In last year’s (2025-26) final listed prices, too, the all-segment peak in all five markets was December 31, so the shape has not changed. Differences in how many days the peak lasts by segment (4 days for city-type, 8 for onsen) are covered in New Year 2026-27 Japan Hotel Rates Peak Dec 31: City 4 Days vs Onsen 8.

Figure 2. Daily listed prices Dec 26–Jan 4 — area medians, 5 markets, all segments

Area median of listed prices (all-plan average, tax included, 2 guests per room) as of mid-October 2026. Properties covered vary by day: Tokyo 1,880–2,028, Osaka 1,016–1,085, Kyoto 1,637–1,850, Hokkaido 1,289–1,563, Okinawa 1,726–1,941.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Where the Peak Sits by Segment — One Night for City-Type, Two Nights (NYE and New Year’s Day) for Resorts and Ryokan

By segment, the position and width of the peak look different. Table 3 shows, for 5 markets × 4 segments, the peak date, December 30 and January 1 as multiples of New Year’s Eve, and New Year’s Eve as a multiple of the January weekday level. Business and city hotels peak on New Year’s Eve in all five markets (only Okinawa business hotels have New Year’s Day marginally higher, at 1.02x); December 30 stays at 0.79–0.97x of New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day at 0.72–0.99x. Tokyo business hotels reach ¥39,800 on New Year’s Eve, 2.18x the January weekday level of ¥18,200, and Kyoto business hotels hit 2.20x: the more urban the hotel, the higher and more concentrated the single-night spike.

Resorts and ryokan, by contrast, set New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day at nearly the same height. Hokkaido resorts list ¥72,700 on December 31 and ¥73,700 on January 1, Okinawa resorts ¥62,100 and ¥62,600, and Kyoto ryokan ¥82,100 and ¥83,600, all peaking on New Year’s Day. Osaka ryokan price New Year’s Day at 1.18x New Year’s Eve, so their peak actually sits on New Year’s Day. For segments selling half-board stays built around seeing in the new year and the first sunrise, the peak extends from New Year’s Eve night through New Year’s Day night, and Saturday, January 2 holds at 0.9–1.0x New Year’s Eve. This contrasts with city-type hotels in Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto, which drop to around 0.6–0.8x on January 2.

What stands out against last year is the change in multiples. Tokyo business hotels are nearly unchanged at 2.18x versus last year’s close of 2.13x, but Osaka business hotels are at 1.69x versus 2.02x last year, and Kyoto business hotels at 2.20x versus 2.42x, so the New Year’s Eve premium is being set below last year’s close. With two and a half months still to go before the stay dates, there is room for prices to rise toward the last minute, and also room for them to fall depending on how sales go.

Figure 3. Tokyo “multiple of January weekday” by segment, Dec 26–Jan 12 — business hotels, current season vs prior year

Tokyo listed prices by segment divided by each segment’s January weekday level (average of January 5–8, 2027). The dashed line indexes prior-year (2025-26) final listed prices for business hotels the same way.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

N = properties covered as of December 31. Segments with fewer than 10 properties omitted. The denominator for the multiple of January weekday is the average listed price for January 5–8 (2027 for the current season, 2026 for the prior year).

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Indexing Hokkaido by segment (Figure 4) shows that even its city-type peaks are low and long. Hokkaido business hotels are only 1.32x the January weekday level on New Year’s Eve, easing gradually to 1.31x on January 1 and 1.23x on January 2. City hotels spike at 1.67x on New Year’s Eve, but resorts and ryokan sustain a plateau of 1.3–1.4x from December 31 through January 2 and still hold 1.07–1.18x on Sunday, January 3. Compared with Tokyo business hotels returning to 1.00x on January 3, Hokkaido, where snow-resort demand runs into the first half of January, has little need to treat the last day of the holiday as a night to drop.

Figure 4. Hokkaido “multiple of January weekday” by segment, Dec 26–Jan 12

Hokkaido listed prices by segment divided by each segment’s January weekday level (average of January 5–8, 2027). Business N=311–369, City N=62–74, Resort N=115–128, Ryokan N=165–230 (range of daily property counts, December 26 to January 12).

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The January Trough — Last Year’s Finalized Occupancy Fell 13.7pt in Kyoto and 10.1pt in Osaka; Hokkaido and Okinawa Held

So how should the weekdays between the end of the holiday and the Coming of Age Day weekend be handled? We test this with last year’s finalized figures. Room occupancy in the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey fell 6.8pt nationwide from December 2025 to January 2026, from 59.5% to 52.7%. As Table 4 shows, the decline varied by market: Kyoto went from 67.0% to 53.3% (−13.7pt), Osaka from 72.9% to 62.8% (−10.1pt) and Tokyo from 78.2% to 70.7% (−7.5pt), so the trough was deepest in the three markets with a high share of city-type hotels. By accommodation type, Kyoto city hotels fell 19.3pt (73.9% → 54.6%) and Osaka city hotels 10.7pt (71.1% → 60.4%), indicating that the leisure and homecoming demand that supported high year-end rates does not last into mid-January.

In contrast, Hokkaido (59.5% → 57.9%, −1.6pt) and Okinawa (51.9% → 51.4%, −0.5pt) kept occupancy almost the same in December and January. Some accommodation types are even higher in January: ryokan went from 37.0% to 42.4% in Hokkaido and from 21.0% to 37.5% in Okinawa. Tokyo ryokan also rose, from 38.4% to 46.8%. January is thus a month when city-type limited-service hotels slacken while onsen and resort properties retain demand from New Year shrine visits, snow and those seeking warmth. That estimated settled ADR was flat from December to January in Hokkaido (+4.5%) and Okinawa (−2.3%) is consistent with this occupancy pattern.

Accommodation-type columns show room occupancy (%) for December → January. From January 2026 data, the sample stratification basis changed from number of employees to number of rooms, so comparisons with January 2025 may include the effect of this revision.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency, Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2025 annual figures; January 2026 second preliminary figures)

How did daily prices move? Figure 5 indexes last year’s listed prices (last observed values) for January 3–12 to the January weekday level. Tokyo, all segments, fell from 1.22x on Saturday, January 3 to 1.02x on Sunday, January 4 and 0.97x on Monday, January 5, followed by a flat trough of 0.96–1.05x across January 5–8. It then jumped to 1.47x on Saturday, January 10, the first day of the Coming of Age Day weekend, and the holiday ended at 1.29x on Sunday, January 11 and 1.02x on Monday, January 12 (holiday). Business hotels alone hit 1.55x on January 10, with Osaka at 1.51x and Kyoto at 1.45x: the three urban markets all closed around 1.5x. Hokkaido (1.24x) and Okinawa (1.22x) added little for Coming of Age Day; their troughs are shallow to begin with, so their peaks are low too.

The same shape is already in place in current listings. The 2027 Coming of Age Day weekend runs Saturday, January 9 to Monday, January 11, and business hotels are listing January 9 at 1.48x the January weekday level in Tokyo, 1.45x in Kyoto, 1.37x in Osaka, 1.26x in Hokkaido and 1.19x in Okinawa. Compared with last year’s close, only Osaka is lower, by 0.14x, which can be read as a night with room left to rise toward the last minute. For resorts and ryokan, January 9 is listed at 1.11–1.14x in Hokkaido and 1.17x for Kyoto ryokan, a smaller premium than city-type hotels.

Figure 5. Prior-year “multiple of January weekday”, January 3–12 — 5 markets, all segments (final listings)

Listed prices for January 3–12 in 2025-26 (last observed values, all segments) divided by each market’s January weekday level (average of January 5–8, 2026). Properties covered: Tokyo 1,521–1,598, Osaka 820–853, Kyoto 1,405–1,512, Hokkaido 1,105–1,288, Okinawa 1,533–1,636.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

What to Defend and What to Bring Back Early — A Day-by-Day Pricing Design for 5 Markets

Here we turn the evidence so far into a design operators can apply to daily pricing. Three premises underpin it. First, the city-type peak is the single night of New Year’s Eve, with December 30 a step below. Second, the last day of the holiday, Sunday, January 3, is followed by the first working day, and in last year’s final listings city-type hotels had already fallen to January weekday levels on the last day of the holiday (Sunday, January 4, 2026). Third, the night most worth defending in the first half of January is the first day (Saturday) of the Coming of Age Day weekend, when city business hotels closed last year at 1.45–1.55x the January weekday level. Based on these, Table 5 summarizes “nights to defend,” “bridge nights” and “nights to bring back early” for each of the five markets.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Table 6 estimates, using business hotel listed prices, how large the “room to raise late” in Table 5 actually is. The January weekday level is approximated by dividing Table 3’s December 31 listed price by the current-season multiple, and then multiplied back by last year’s closing multiple and by the midpoint between the current and prior-year multiples. Returning to last year’s closing multiple would put December 31 about ¥5,000 higher in Osaka and about ¥3,600 higher in Kyoto, and the Coming of Age Day Saturday (January 9) about ¥2,100 higher in Osaka and ¥1,300 higher in Tokyo. Conversely, Tokyo’s December 31 is set at 2.18x, above last year’s close (2.13x), so returning to last year’s level would mean about ¥900 lower. In Hokkaido and Okinawa the multiples differ little, and the range stays under ¥1,000 either way. Last year’s close reflects last year’s demand and there is no guarantee this season will reach the same multiples, so this table should be read as a guide to how much upside to leave in place.

Estimates based on listed prices (area median of all-plan averages, 2 guests per room, tax included), not estimated settled ADR. January weekday level = Table 3’s December 31 listed price ÷ current-season Dec 31 multiple (for Okinawa, whose peak is New Year’s Day, December 31 is estimated as the January 1 listed price ÷ 1.02). Midpoint = average of the current and prior-year closing multiples. The January 9 multiples are current listings (as of mid-October 2026) and last year’s final listing for Saturday, January 10. Values are rounded to the nearest ¥100, so differences are computed after rounding.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

For city-type operators, year-end revenue is decided over three or four nights including New Year’s Eve. Rather than pricing December 30 high “because it is the homecoming peak,” keeping December 30 one step below December 31 without collapsing the gap is more consistent with last year’s close. Saturday, December 26 is the first day of the nine-day break on this season’s calendar, and in Tokyo it is listed at ¥37,800, higher than Saturday, January 9. Because this night also depends on whether people take leave, the decision to defend or lower it should be made using the booking pace that becomes readable from mid-November (from 45 days before the stay).

For the January trough, a design that fills nights first rather than cutting prices to fill them is likely to work better. City hotels in Kyoto and Osaka recorded January occupancy of 54.6% and 60.4% last year, more than 10pt below December, so there is room to strip the year-end premium entirely from the January 5–8 weekdays and use multi-night and early-booking offers to build a path through to Saturday, January 9. Last year the Coming of Age Day Saturday closed at 1.45–1.55x the January weekday level for city business hotels — the only night in the first half of January where a premium close to year-end levels holds. To protect it, the direction that stabilizes monthly revenue is not to “lower” January 4–8 but to design them as weekdays from the outset.

Resorts and ryokan, conversely, already show in current listings a design that prices New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day at the same height and holds the plateau through January 2. In Hokkaido and Okinawa, January occupancy is nearly unchanged from December and estimated settled ADR is flat, so the post-holiday price step-down can be smaller than for city-type hotels. The growing number of properties placing their peak on New Year’s Day night — among ryokan in Hokkaido, Okinawa and Kyoto — suggests that the “value of New Year’s Day,” such as the year-end dinner and the first sunrise, has started to be reflected in rates, and is an element that can be extended further.

Summary

Looking at the five markets’ 2026-27 year-end period both monthly and daily, behind the monthly step (−22% in Tokyo and Kyoto) lie two shapes: a city-type peak standing on the single night of New Year’s Eve, and a resort/ryokan plateau extending from New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day. December 30, the homecoming peak, is not the top in any market, and on January 3, the last day of the holiday, city-type hotels return to weekday levels. The January trough is deep in Kyoto, Osaka and Tokyo and shallow in Hokkaido and Okinawa. For operators, the decision boils down to three points: how to defend the three or four nights including New Year’s Eve, whether January 5–8 can be designed as weekdays from the outset, and how to capture the Coming of Age Day Saturday, the only premium night in the first half of January. Some markets (business hotels in Osaka and Kyoto) are currently listed at multiples below last year’s close, so pricing should leave room to rise in the final weeks, read together with the booking pace available from mid-November.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Which night has the highest hotel rates over the year-end and New Year period?

In the five markets of Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto, Hokkaido and Okinawa, business and city hotels peak on December 31 (New Year’s Eve). For resort hotels and ryokan, New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day are almost the same height, and resorts in Hokkaido and Okinawa and ryokan in Kyoto list New Year’s Day slightly higher. December 30, the peak of the homecoming rush, is 0.79–0.97x of New Year’s Eve and is not the peak.

Q. How far do room rates fall in January?

Monthly estimated settled ADR falls 22.0% in Tokyo, from ¥17,500 in December to ¥13,700 in January, and 22.1% in Kyoto. Osaka (−4.8%) and Okinawa (−2.3%) see shallow declines, while Hokkaido is higher in January (+4.5%). Last year’s finalized occupancy also fell in the urban markets, by 13.7pt in Kyoto and 10.1pt in Osaka, while Hokkaido and Okinawa were nearly unchanged.

Q. How much of a premium can the Coming of Age Day three-day weekend command?

In 2027 it runs Saturday, January 9 to Monday, January 11. Last year (January 10, 2026), final listed prices for business hotels were 1.55x the January weekday level in Tokyo, 1.51x in Osaka and 1.45x in Kyoto. Current listings are at a similar level, 1.48x in Tokyo, 1.45x in Kyoto and 1.37x in Osaka, while Hokkaido (1.26x) and Okinawa (1.19x) tend to carry a thinner premium.

Q. Should Hokkaido and Okinawa also cut prices sharply after the holiday?

The step-down can likely be smaller than for city-type hotels. Japan Tourism Agency room occupancy from December 2025 to January 2026 was nearly unchanged, at −1.6pt in Hokkaido and −0.5pt in Okinawa, and estimated settled ADR is flat from December to January (Hokkaido +4.5%, Okinawa −2.3%). Hokkaido resorts and ryokan are still listed at 1.07–1.18x the January weekday level on Sunday, January 3.

Q. Will the year-end prices visible now stay as they are?

No. The December 2026 and January 2027 figures are estimates based on listings as of mid-October 2026 and will move up or down as stay dates approach, with new plans and price adjustments. Business hotels in Osaka and Kyoto are listing New Year’s Eve at multiples below last year’s close (Osaka 2.02x, Kyoto 2.42x); returning to last year’s level would put December 31 about ¥5,000 higher in Osaka and about ¥3,600 higher in Kyoto (Table 6).