In the Economy Watchers Survey for September 2026 (Reiwa 8), published by the Cabinet Office on October 8, 2026, the current-conditions DI for services within household activity rose 3.7 points from the previous month to 50.5, crossing the 50 “no change” line for the first time in seven months, since February (50.9). The overall current-conditions DI was 47.0 (+0.6 month on month), its fifth straight monthly rise, while the outlook DI stalled at 47.4 (−0.9). This article sorts 158 comments from respondents working in lodging and travel (73 on current conditions, 85 on the outlook) by region and judgment, checks “the gap between September’s five-day holiday and weekdays” in 12 representative prefectures using MetroEngines Research estimated occupancy, and considers how a holiday peak should be built into a monthly budget.
• ADR (average daily rate) = an estimated settled room rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying a property-type correction factor to the lowest plan price each property publishes on OTAs (per room, two guests per room, tax included). Checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent three months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual settled prices and accounting figures.
• ADR at the area level (prefecture, city/ward) is the median of the estimated settled rates of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in that area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for two guests per room (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy rate) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracks OTA public prices for about 168,000 properties in Japan, of which about 27,000 have confirmed occupancy data)
- — Services DI 50.5: September’s current-conditions DI (seasonally adjusted) rose 3.7 points month on month, above 50 for the first time in seven months, since February. The outlook DI fell to 48.5 (−2.7).
- — 31 of 73 current-conditions comments say “no change”: Published comments from the four lodging and travel occupations split 27 improving and 15 worsening. Tohoku had no worsening comments, while Kinki was □6 / ▲4 — judgments divided by region.
- — Holiday minus weekday: up to +11.5pt: Estimated occupancy during the five-day holiday (Sep 19–23) exceeded weekdays by 11.5pt in Tochigi, but the lift to the monthly average was only +1.9pt (12 representative prefectures, September 2026).
- — Ryokan show a gap of about 20pt: The ryokan holiday-minus-weekday gap was +22.8pt in Fukuoka, +21.3pt in Ishikawa and +19.0pt in Miyagi. Business hotels in Hokkaido and Miyagi ran higher on weekdays than during the holiday.
- — Top outlook reason: prices and rising costs, 17 comments: 20.0% of the 85 lodging and travel comments. Autumn foliage and fall outings, and year-end / bonenkai parties / banquets, follow with 15 each.
How to read the DI — 50 is the dividing line; respondents compare with three months ago on a five-point scale
The Economy Watchers Survey asks 2,050 people working on the front lines of retail, food service, services, housing, business and employment across Japan (1,793 valid responses in the September survey, a 87.5% response rate) each month, from the 25th to month-end, to rate “current economic conditions compared with three months ago” and “the outlook two to three months ahead” on a five-point scale: ◎ (better), ○ (somewhat better), □ (unchanged), ▲ (somewhat worse) and × (worse). The DI assigns each answer a score of 1, 0.75, 0.5, 0.25 or 0, averages them and multiplies by 100, so if everyone answers □ the DI is 50. In other words, 50 is not the line between “good” and “bad” but the line of “unchanged from three months ago”; above 50 means respondents seeing improvement outnumber those seeing deterioration. In September the overall breakdown (unadjusted) was ◎1.6%, ○17.3%, □52.3%, ▲23.1% and ×5.7%: just over half answered “unchanged,” with 18.9% on the improving side and 28.8% on the worsening side.
The Cabinet Office’s overall assessment was: “The economy is showing signs of picking up. Looking ahead, although uncertainty from the situation in the Middle East remains and there are concerns about the impact of natural disasters, the pick-up is expected to continue” (Cabinet Office, summary of survey results). In this survey the lodging industry falls under “services” within “household activity,” with respondents from resort hotels, city hotels, resort ryokan and travel agencies placed in each region.
September DI — Services at 50.5 lift the total; outlook down to 48.5
The current-conditions DI (seasonally adjusted) rose from 40.8 in April to 47.0 in September, climbing for five straight months since May. Services led the way: 42.8 in April → 44.3 in May → 46.4 in June → 46.4 in July → 46.8 in August → 50.5 in September, jumping 3.7 points in September after small gains through August. Food service rose only slightly to 46.7 (+0.5), and housing fell sharply to 40.3 (−5.8), so household activity as a whole rose only to 46.8 (+1.3).
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026 Results” (seasonally adjusted)
| Category | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | MoM change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 40.8 | 43.6 | 44.0 | 45.7 | 46.4 | 47.0 | +0.6 |
| Household activity | 40.5 | 43.8 | 43.5 | 45.4 | 45.5 | 46.8 | +1.3 |
| Retail | 40.9 | 44.4 | 42.8 | 45.0 | 44.7 | 45.5 | +0.8 |
| Food service | 34.6 | 44.5 | 41.8 | 47.5 | 46.2 | 46.7 | +0.5 |
| Services | 42.8 | 44.3 | 46.4 | 46.4 | 46.8 | 50.5 | +3.7 |
| Housing | 31.5 | 34.8 | 38.4 | 41.9 | 46.1 | 40.3 | ▲5.8 |
| Corporate activity | 41.5 | 43.7 | 45.6 | 46.6 | 48.2 | 47.1 | ▲1.1 |
| Employment | 41.4 | 41.5 | 43.9 | 46.1 | 48.8 | 49.0 | +0.2 |
Source: Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026 Results,” current-conditions DI (seasonally adjusted)
The outlook DI tells a different story. The total fell from 48.3 in August to 47.4 in September (−0.9), and services, which had risen to 51.2 in August, dropped to 48.5 (−2.7). Food service fell sharply to 43.9 (−3.8). Current conditions are improving, but more respondents are cautious about two to three months ahead; the reasons are counted later in this article.
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026 Results” (seasonally adjusted)
| Category | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | MoM change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 39.4 | 40.7 | 45.7 | 45.8 | 48.3 | 47.4 | ▲0.9 |
| Household activity | 39.8 | 40.9 | 45.7 | 45.7 | 48.0 | 47.0 | ▲1.0 |
| Retail | 40.8 | 40.9 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 47.0 | 47.3 | +0.3 |
| Food service | 38.9 | 42.4 | 46.0 | 42.9 | 47.7 | 43.9 | ▲3.8 |
| Services | 39.6 | 42.6 | 46.8 | 47.3 | 51.2 | 48.5 | ▲2.7 |
| Housing | 31.4 | 31.4 | 38.2 | 38.0 | 42.2 | 41.0 | ▲1.2 |
| Corporate activity | 37.9 | 40.4 | 45.9 | 46.0 | 49.1 | 47.8 | ▲1.3 |
| Employment | 40.1 | 39.2 | 44.8 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 48.4 | ▲0.2 |
Source: Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026 Results,” outlook DI (seasonally adjusted)
Comments from lodging and travel — 31 of 73 current-conditions comments say “no change,” with judgments split by region
Alongside the survey, the Cabinet Office publishes a regional “collection of reasons for economic judgments,” listing major and distinctive answers with each respondent’s occupation and judgment symbol. Extracting the four occupations — resort hotels, city hotels, resort ryokan and travel agencies — yields 73 current-conditions comments and 85 outlook comments. Because the collection does not include every answer, the counts below are “the number of published comments,” not the distribution of all respondents. Respondents are anonymous, and this article does not attempt to identify any property or company.
The 73 current-conditions comments break down as ◎6, ○21, □31, ▲12 and ×3, with 27 on the improving side outnumbering 15 on the worsening side. By region, Tohoku had ◎2, ○2, □5 and nothing on the worsening side, and Chugoku was similar at ◎1, ○3, □3. By contrast, Kinki had □6 and ▲4 with only one improving comment, and Shikoku and Northern Kanto each had two ▲ — cautious voices stand out in western Japan and northern Kanto.
| Region | ◎ | ○ | □ | ▲ | × | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaido | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | – | 6 |
| Tohoku | 2 | 2 | 5 | – | – | 9 |
| Northern Kanto | – | 3 | – | 2 | – | 5 |
| Southern Kanto | – | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Koshinetsu | 1 | 1 | 3 | – | – | 5 |
| Tokai | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | – | 8 |
| Hokuriku | – | – | 2 | – | – | 2 |
| Kinki | – | 1 | 6 | 4 | – | 11 |
| Chugoku | 1 | 3 | 3 | – | – | 7 |
| Shikoku | – | 1 | – | 2 | – | 3 |
| Kyushu | – | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Okinawa | – | 2 | 1 | – | 1 | 4 |
| Total | 6 | 21 | 31 | 12 | 3 | 73 |
Source: Tallied by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026: Reasons for Economic Judgments (Current)” (resort hotels, city hotels, resort ryokan, travel agencies; N=73)
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026: Reasons for Economic Judgments (Current)” (N=73)
By occupation, city hotels lean toward improvement with ◎5 and ○7, while resort hotels center on “unchanged” with □7 and ×2. Travel agencies account for 28 comments, 14 of them □, with rising prices and poor weather as the main topics. On the outlook, travel agencies tilt cautious at □19 and ▲10, while city hotels have ○12, with many expecting improvement based on bookings for autumn foliage, bonenkai parties and the year-end.
| Respondent occupation | Current conditions (vs. three months ago) | Outlook (2–3 months ahead) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | ○ | □ | ▲ | × | Total | ◎ | ○ | □ | ▲ | × | Total | |
| Resort hotel | – | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | – | 15 |
| City hotel | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | – | 24 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 6 | – | 30 |
| Resort ryokan | – | 3 | 3 | 1 | – | 7 | – | 1 | 4 | 1 | – | 6 |
| Travel agency | 1 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 10 | – | 34 |
Source: Tallied by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026: Reasons for Economic Judgments (Current and Outlook)” (current N=73, outlook N=85)
Reading the reasons, September comes down to three themes: “the first five-day holiday in 11 years (September 19–23),” “events and tournaments” and “weather.” Of the 73 comments, 23 mention the holiday (◎2, ○8, □11, ▲2). Most respondents describe the holiday itself as a positive, but the 11 □ comments read it as “busy during the holiday, but unchanged over the month.” Twelve comments mention events or tournaments, and 14 mention weather or disasters such as typhoons, prolonged rain and earthquakes.
| Region | Judgment | Respondent | Reason (excerpt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tohoku | ◎ | City hotel (manager) | “There is demand from various large events and the holidays, and both advance bookings and short-lead pickup are strong.” |
| Tohoku | ◎ | City hotel (staff) | “Inbound individual bookings remain strong. Use by guests from Europe and North America is also strong.” |
| Tohoku | ○ | Resort ryokan (staff) | “Sales are up about 27% versus three months ago, with particularly large growth in accommodation sales.” |
| Tohoku | □ | Resort hotel (staff) | “Guest numbers were high during the long September holiday, but on a monthly basis things are not good.” |
| Hokkaido | □ | Resort hotel (owner/executive) | “Room rates are rising, but guest numbers are gradually declining, mainly among guests booked through travel agencies.” |
| Northern Kanto | ○ | City hotel (manager) | “Average spend per guest is up in both rooms and food & beverage, so things are somewhat better.” |
| Southern Kanto | ○ | City hotel (owner/executive) | “September had a great many events, centered on a large gaming-related event, and sales are growing.” |
| Koshinetsu | ◎ | City hotel (staff) | “With the long September holiday and events such as idol concerts, there was a very large flow of guests from outside the prefecture.” |
| Koshinetsu | ○ | Resort ryokan (owner/executive) | “Thanks to the long holiday this year, sales grew very strongly. And because the holiday was long, many guests came from far away.” |
| Koshinetsu | □ | Resort ryokan (owner/executive) | “The weather was bad in September, and one cancellation after another came from guests who had planned to stay.” |
| Tokai | ◎ | City hotel (employee) | “Even when the rate is ¥2,000–3,000 higher, the number of guests does not fall.” |
| Tokai | ○ | Resort hotel (manager) | “With the Asian Games and Asian Para Games being held, room occupancy is very high.” |
| Tokai | □ | City hotel (general manager) | “As soon as we raise room prices, bookings weaken.” |
| Hokuriku | □ | City hotel (staff) | “Rooms are holding up well, led by inbound. Banquets depend on whether events are being held.” |
| Kinki | ○ | City hotel (rooms staff) | “Overlapping with the Halloween season, theme-park-related lodging demand remains strong.” |
| Kinki | □ | Resort hotel (owner/executive) | “This year we have been able to offset the decline in group guests with growth in individual guests. During the long holiday in particular, individual guests kept us close to full day after day.” |
| Kinki | □ | City hotel (sales staff) | “Bookings for the long September holiday did not grow as much as expected. Normally holidays bring more guests, but Saturday pickup in particular has been sluggish.” |
| Kinki | ▲ | City hotel (front desk) | “Inbound group business was strong in September, but room rates for business trips and leisure have fallen.” |
| Chugoku | ◎ | City hotel (general manager) | “Room bookings for September have grown more than 10% year on year since the month began.” |
| Chugoku | □ | City hotel (rooms staff) | “We sold at high occupancy and high rates, mainly for domestic leisure, but in normal periods there is no major change in either volume or rate compared with three months ago.” |
| Chugoku | □ | Resort hotel (deputy manager) | “During that period there were many overnight guests and many general visitors, but partly because of the weather, other days were quiet.” |
| Shikoku | ▲ | City hotel (owner/executive) | “Lodging demand is steady or strong, but local banquet demand is weak.” |
| Kyushu | ▲ | City hotel (staff) | “Weekdays were weak this month, and we made many rate adjustments.” |
| Kyushu | × | Resort hotel (general affairs) | “Banquets were cancelled after the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake, and the outlook is still uncertain.” |
| Okinawa | ○ | Resort hotel (senior managing director) | “Fine weather during the long September holiday improved the situation, and guest numbers are recovering overall.” |
| Okinawa | × | Resort hotel (planning staff) | “Rooms sold were up 19% year on year in June, but in September they turned negative, down 0.4% year on year.” |
Source: Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026: Reasons for Economic Judgments (Current)” (interviews by regional survey bodies; excerpts selected by the HotelBank Editorial Team)
Checking against our data — the “five-day holiday peak” and weekdays in estimated occupancy for 12 representative prefectures
We test the front-line sense that “the holiday was good, but the month was unchanged” using MetroEngines Research occupancy (estimated from OTA-listed inventory). For one representative prefecture in each of the 12 regions, we took daily estimated occupancy for September and August 2026 across all property types and compared the average for the five-day holiday (September 19–23), the weekday average excluding the holiday, and the Saturday/Sunday average excluding the holiday. Occupancy is an estimate based on how inventory sold on OTAs is absorbed and differs from a property’s actual overall occupancy. The number of properties and rooms covered is shown in the table (based on listings on major booking sites).
| Region / representative prefecture | Properties / rooms | Aug avg. | Sep avg. | 5-day holiday (9/19–23) | Sep weekdays (excl. holiday) | Sep Sat/Sun (excl. holiday) | Holiday − weekday (pt) | Holiday lift to monthly avg. (pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaido / Hokkaido | 679／53,149 | 89.6 | 90.3 | 92.5 | 90.4 | 88.4 | +2.1 | +0.3 |
| Tohoku / Miyagi | 168／13,217 | 89.8 | 87.9 | 93.0 | 86.9 | 86.8 | +6.1 | +1.0 |
| Northern Kanto / Tochigi | 315／13,513 | 85.4 | 81.2 | 90.8 | 79.3 | 79.2 | +11.5 | +1.9 |
| Southern Kanto / Tokyo | 805／104,583 | 88.2 | 89.8 | 92.3 | 89.8 | 87.8 | +2.5 | +0.4 |
| Koshinetsu / Nagano | 507／18,893 | 92.5 | 88.4 | 95.2 | 87.1 | 87.0 | +8.1 | +1.3 |
| Tokai / Aichi | 328／33,635 | 82.5 | 90.4 | 97.3 | 89.6 | 87.4 | +7.7 | +1.2 |
| Hokuriku / Ishikawa | 192／14,302 | 83.5 | 84.2 | 92.6 | 82.6 | 82.5 | +10.0 | +1.6 |
| Kinki / Osaka | 410／59,647 | 80.8 | 80.4 | 89.6 | 79.0 | 76.8 | +10.6 | +1.8 |
| Chugoku / Hiroshima | 215／14,797 | 87.9 | 88.5 | 94.0 | 89.6 | 80.3 | +4.4 | +0.8 |
| Shikoku / Ehime | 141／7,986 | 85.0 | 82.8 | 92.4 | 82.5 | 75.7 | +9.9 | +1.7 |
| Kyushu / Fukuoka | 381／28,935 | 89.6 | 88.3 | 91.1 | 87.8 | 87.7 | +3.3 | +0.5 |
| Okinawa / Okinawa | 708／36,220 | 85.5 | 86.7 | 90.5 | 85.7 | 86.7 | +4.8 | +0.8 |
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (occupancy estimated from OTA-listed inventory; average of daily values, 30 days for September and 31 for August; holiday lift = September average minus the average if the five holiday days were at the weekday level)
The gap between the five-day holiday and weekdays was largest in Tochigi (+11.5pt), Osaka (+10.6pt), Ishikawa (+10.0pt) and Ehime (+9.9pt), and smallest in Hokkaido (+2.1pt), Tokyo (+2.5pt) and Fukuoka (+3.3pt). In prefectures with small gaps, business demand already fills weekdays to around 90%, leaving little room to build during the holiday. Conversely, in prefectures where weekdays run around 80%, the holiday adds about 10 points. Yet the lift that a five-day peak gives to the monthly average is only +1.9pt even in Tochigi, +1.8pt in Osaka and +0.4pt in Tokyo. When a Tohoku resort hotel respondent says “on a monthly basis things are not good,” this arithmetic is exactly what they mean. The daily peak over the five holiday days and the dip on the Thursday after the holiday are tracked as daily values for 7 areas × 4 property types in Silver Week 2026 Actuals: Peak 98.3% on Sep 20, Post-Holiday Thursday 83.1%.
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (occupancy estimated from OTA-listed inventory; coverage as in the table above, 4,849 properties and 398,877 rooms across 12 prefectures, based on listings on major booking sites)
Comparing August and September monthly averages, Aichi rose 7.9 points from 82.5% to 90.4%. This coincides with the Asian Games and Asian Para Games, matching a Tokai respondent’s remark that “room occupancy is very high.” Tokyo (88.2 → 89.8) and Okinawa (85.5 → 86.7) were also higher in September, while Nagano (92.5 → 88.4), Tochigi (85.4 → 81.2) and Ehime (85.0 → 82.8) fell from the summer-holiday month of August — the five-day holiday sat between the summer peak and the autumn trough. On the rate side, which this article does not cover, business hotels’ estimated settled ADR rose year on year in 44 prefectures in the same September; how to read Aichi and Osaka separately is covered in Business Hotel Estimated Settled ADR, Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY, Median +7.9%.
Splitting by property type makes the gap even clearer. For ryokan, the holiday-versus-weekday gap reaches around 20 points: Fukuoka +22.8pt (holiday 90.5% / weekdays 67.7%), Ishikawa +21.3pt (93.6% / 72.3%) and Miyagi +19.0pt (94.8% / 75.8%). For business hotels the gap is in single digits apart from Osaka (+10.2pt) and Ehime (+10.1pt), and in Hokkaido (−1.5pt) and Miyagi (−0.3pt) weekdays were actually higher. A resort ryokan respondent saying “thanks to the long holiday, sales grew very strongly” and a city hotel respondent saying “in normal periods there is no major change in either volume or rate compared with three months ago” are the same September seen from different property types.
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (occupancy estimated from OTA-listed inventory; ryokan shown only for prefectures with 15 or more properties; N properties / rooms for each prefecture in the table below)
| Region / representative prefecture | Business Holiday / weekday | City Holiday / weekday | Ryokan Holiday / weekday | Resort Holiday / weekday |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaido / Hokkaido | 92.4／93.9 −1.5pt · N=222 / 25,913 rooms | 89.8／91.4 −1.6pt · N=35 / 8,550 rooms | 95.5／86.2 +9.3pt · N=164 / 7,210 rooms | 93.0／84.0 +9.0pt · N=84 / 9,065 rooms |
| Tohoku / Miyagi | 92.2／92.5 −0.3pt · N=58 / 8,464 rooms | 94.8／89.7 +5.1pt · N=10 / 1,047 rooms | 94.8／75.8 +19.0pt · N=62 / 2,365 rooms | 93.7／71.9 +21.8pt · N=10 / 902 rooms |
| Northern Kanto / Tochigi | 83.6／80.2 +3.4pt · N=59 / 4,863 rooms | – | 96.1／79.7 +16.4pt · N=117 / 5,118 rooms | 95.1／80.1 +15.0pt · N=26 / 1,720 rooms |
| Southern Kanto / Tokyo | 92.6／90.5 +2.1pt · N=539 / 78,439 rooms | 92.3／89.7 +2.6pt · N=54 / 17,294 rooms | 95.9／90.2 +5.7pt · N=19 / 561 rooms | 91.5／83.7 +7.8pt · N=12 / 1,024 rooms |
| Koshinetsu / Nagano | 94.7／91.3 +3.4pt · N=75 / 6,922 rooms | 94.9／91.0 +3.9pt · N=15 / 1,446 rooms | 95.6／83.8 +11.8pt · N=199 / 4,867 rooms | 95.8／85.4 +10.4pt · N=54 / 3,875 rooms |
| Tokai / Aichi | 97.4／90.9 +6.5pt · N=172 / 25,672 rooms | 96.4／87.0 +9.4pt · N=22 / 3,640 rooms | 96.3／80.8 +15.5pt · N=77 / 1,610 rooms | – |
| Hokuriku / Ishikawa | 92.4／87.2 +5.2pt · N=70 / 9,335 rooms | – | 93.6／72.3 +21.3pt · N=74 / 3,131 rooms | – |
| Kinki / Osaka | 89.1／78.9 +10.2pt · N=285 / 47,820 rooms | 91.9／79.7 +12.2pt · N=34 / 7,905 rooms | 92.9／78.9 +14.0pt · N=21 / 417 rooms | – |
| Chugoku / Hiroshima | 93.7／91.4 +2.3pt · N=93 / 11,030 rooms | 95.5／88.8 +6.7pt · N=14 / 1,662 rooms | 96.3／84.6 +11.7pt · N=38 / 978 rooms | – |
| Shikoku / Ehime | 90.2／80.1 +10.1pt · N=50 / 5,232 rooms | 93.4／85.5 +7.9pt · N=10 / 1,304 rooms | 98.4／89.2 +9.2pt · N=36 / 993 rooms | – |
| Kyushu / Fukuoka | 91.2／89.9 +1.3pt · N=175 / 22,893 rooms | 91.9／85.5 +6.4pt · N=22 / 2,949 rooms | 90.5／67.7 +22.8pt · N=52 / 950 rooms | 90.3／75.4 +14.9pt · N=12 / 755 rooms |
| Okinawa / Okinawa | 88.4／86.6 +1.8pt · N=134 / 12,582 rooms | – | – | 93.1／86.2 +6.9pt · N=182 / 16,530 rooms |
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (occupancy estimated from OTA-listed inventory, September 2026. Categories with fewer than 10 properties shown as “–”. Okinawa ryokan hidden due to small sample)
Why the outlook DI fell — prices and rising costs 17, weather and disasters 11, the Middle East and oil 12
To see why the outlook DI fell, we classified the 85 lodging and travel comments by the words they contain (one comment can fall into several categories). The most common was prices and rising costs, with 17 comments (20.0%), followed by autumn foliage and fall outings (15) and year-end / bonenkai / banquets (15), then disasters, weather and typhoons (11), inbound (8), the Kyushu Fukko Oen-wari travel subsidy (7), the Middle East and overseas situation (6) and crude oil, fuel and energy (6). Across all 1,351 comments from every sector, prices and rising costs appeared in 433 (32.1%), the Middle East and overseas situation in 90 and interest rates in 73; lodging and travel comments mentioned interest rates only once, and instead had many more mentions of weather and the autumn demand season.
| Words in outlook reasons | Lodging & travel (of 85) | Share | All sectors (of 1,351) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prices and rising costs (incl. price hikes, labor costs, thrift) | 17 | 20.0% | 433 | 32.1% |
| Autumn foliage, fall outings, peak season | 15 | 17.6% | 43 | 3.2% |
| Year-end, bonenkai parties, banquet demand | 15 | 17.6% | 107 | 7.9% |
| Disasters, weather, typhoons, earthquakes | 11 | 12.9% | 116 | 8.6% |
| Inbound | 8 | 9.4% | 42 | 3.1% |
| Kyushu Fukko Oen-wari (travel subsidy) | 7 | 8.2% | 8 | 0.6% |
| Middle East and overseas situation | 6 | 7.1% | 90 | 6.7% |
| Crude oil, fuel, energy | 6 | 7.1% | 37 | 2.7% |
| Group demand | 6 | 7.1% | 10 | 0.7% |
| Weak yen, exchange rates | 3 | 3.5% | 43 | 3.2% |
| Consumption tax (food tax-rate cut) | 2 | 2.4% | 21 | 1.6% |
| Interest rates | 1 | 1.2% | 73 | 5.4% |
Source: Tallied by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026: Reasons for Economic Judgments (Outlook)” (classified by words; multiple categories possible)
Reading the same 85 comments by judgment symbol, the 26 ○ and ◎ comments cite advance bookings for autumn foliage, bonenkai parties and inbound, while the 21 ▲ comments point to prices, the weak yen, the Middle East and the weather. The 17 comments mentioning prices and rising costs break down as □8, ▲6 and ○3 — nearly half of respondents acknowledge rising costs but still answer “unchanged.” Of the six that mention oil and energy, two are ○, and some voices report success in passing on prices, such as “For now it isn’t feeding straight into costs, and recently we have been able to absorb it through selling prices” (Southern Kanto, city hotel, □).
| Region | Judgment | Respondent | Outlook reason (excerpt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tohoku | ◎ | City hotel (staff) | “Autumn foliage is at its best, and bookings are very strong.” |
| Northern Kanto | ○ | City hotel (owner/executive) | “Inbound has doubled year on year.” |
| Southern Kanto | ○ | City hotel (owner/executive) | “Purchase prices keep rising unchecked, and margins are shrinking. The energy outlook is also unstable.” |
| Koshinetsu | □ | City hotel (staff) | “With many events scheduled in the city, bookings from outside the prefecture are already in, more than 10% above the same month last year.” |
| Tokai | ○ | Resort hotel (owner/executive) | “With fewer hotels and ryokan accepting group tours, we expect to enjoy a survivor’s advantage.” |
| Kinki | □ | City hotel (rooms staff) | “After Halloween in October, the booking pace is slower than last year, making it hard to pre-sell high-priced plans.” |
| Kinki | ▲ | City hotel (sales staff) | “Rates may fall as people put off travel and hold back on items that have gone up in price, but as a tourism industry we are hopeful about inbound.” |
| Chugoku | ○ | City hotel (rooms staff) | “With the autumn outing season arriving and inbound activity picking up, we expect high occupancy to continue until mid-December.” |
| Kyushu | ◎ | City hotel (staff) | “Many bookings are already in. In both volume and rate, this will be the busiest season of the year.” |
| Kyushu | ○ | Resort hotel (manager) | “In September, travel demand was held back ahead of the Kyushu Fukko Oen-wari subsidy starting in October.” |
| Okinawa | ▲ | Resort hotel (planning staff) | “As of the end of September, rooms booked for December are down 11% year on year, and the decline is widening.” |
Source: Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026: Reasons for Economic Judgments (Outlook)” (excerpts selected by the HotelBank Editorial Team)
The Bank of Japan’s Tankan (September 2026 survey, published October 1), a survey of companies, points the same way. The business conditions DI for “accommodations, eating & drinking services” among large enterprises was 38 for current conditions (down 8 from 46 in the previous survey) and 34 for the forecast (−4); among small enterprises it was 12 for current conditions (−6) and 18 for the forecast (+6). For large enterprises, both current conditions and the forecast declined. The Tankan asks companies about their business judgment each quarter, whereas the Economy Watchers Survey is answered monthly by individuals on the front line, with reasons readable by region. In the September in which large-enterprise accommodations and food service fell 8 points in the Tankan, the Watchers services DI rose 3.7 points. Put together, they read as: “On the ground, September alone was good thanks to the holiday and events, but companies’ quarterly judgment weighed rising costs and an uncertain outlook more heavily.”
Implications for operators — how to budget for the gap between the holiday peak and the monthly average
First, a holiday peak moves the monthly average by only about 2 points. Across all property types in the 12 prefectures, the holiday lift was at most +1.9pt (Tochigi) and at least +0.3pt (Hokkaido). Rather than raising the monthly budget on the strength of the holiday, setting the level for the 19 non-holiday weekdays and 6 weekend days first and budgeting the five holiday days separately as an add-on will bring forecasts closer to actuals. Even without discussing room rates, occupancy arithmetic alone explains the feeling that “the holiday was good, yet the month fell short.”
Second, where the upside lies differs by property type. For ryokan and resorts, the holiday-versus-weekday gap is large — roughly 6 to 23 points depending on the prefecture — so the upside lies in building weekday demand (multi-night stays, workations, weekday-only experience products). Business hotels already run around 90% on weekdays, leaving only a few points of holiday upside, so the division of roles is rate over volume during holidays and stabilizing corporate and multi-night business on weekdays. Osaka business hotels ran 78.9% on weekdays and 89.1% during the holiday, a 10.2pt gap, so some urban prefectures still have weekday room to fill. How deep the ryokan trough gets after a holiday is shown as a 39.7pt gap in Tochigi Ryokan & Resorts: Estimated OCC 99.7% Over the September Five-Day Holiday, 60.0% on Early-October Weekdays (estimates, September–October 2026, Tochigi ryokan and resorts).
Third, the outlook factors are specific to each region. In Kyushu, respondents said September demand was “held back” ahead of the Kyushu Fukko Oen-wari subsidy starting in October, and the collection records both the expected rise in bookings from October and a pullback after it ends. Kansai cites the booking pace after Halloween and pre-selling high-priced plans; Tohoku and Northern Kanto cite autumn foliage and lodging coupons; and Okinawa gives a concrete figure of December rooms booked down 11% year on year. Overlaying the factors cited by respondents in your region onto your own property’s booking curve is probably the most practical way to read the outlook DI.
Finally, the survey’s results for each month are published in the second week of the following month. The October survey (published in early November) will show current conditions for an October without a five-day holiday, and the outlook for the year-end and New Year period. Whether the services DI can stay at 50 in a month without a holiday peak will be the next checkpoint for gauging the strength of autumn demand.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. If the Economy Watchers Survey DI is above 50, does that mean lodging demand is “good”?
A. No. 50 is the line of “unchanged from three months ago.” Above 50 means more people said things improved than said they worsened; it shows direction, not whether the level is good or bad.
Q. Do the counts of respondent comments represent the distribution across the whole industry?
A. No. The collection of reasons for economic judgments contains comments that each regional survey body selected as major or distinctive, and the 73 and 85 in this article are the numbers published.
Q. Is the occupancy rate in this article the same as the Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy rate?
A. No. The occupancy rate here is estimated from how inventory listed on major booking sites is absorbed, and differs in scope and method from the room occupancy rate in the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey. For long-term monthly comparisons, please use the Japan Tourism Agency’s statistics.
Related Articles
- Hotel Occupancy, Sep 2026: Okinawa 86.7%, Osaka 80.4%, Kanagawa 84.2% — Reading Them Against JTA Figures
- Silver Week 2026 Actuals: Peak 98.3% on Sep 20, Post-Holiday Thursday 83.1% — Daily Check Across 7 Areas × 4 Property Types
- Business Hotel Estimated Settled ADR, Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY, Median +7.9% — Reading the Five-Day Holiday, Aichi and Osaka
- Tochigi Ryokan & Resorts: Estimated OCC 99.7% Over the September Five-Day Holiday, 60.0% on Early-October Weekdays — Filling a 39.7pt Trough
- Miyagi Business Hotels, September: Thursday 95.2%, Sunday 86.4% — 82.8% on Sundays Excluding the Holiday, and How to Fill a Weekday-Type Trough
- Mie Prefecture, Final September Estimated Settled ADR: Business +19.9%, City +11.8%, Ryokan −0.1% — Property-Type Gaps Split by the Five-Day Holiday
- Kyushu Travel Subsidy Tested at Equal Lead Time — Saturday OCC Gap of 1.1pt vs. Six Non-Subsidy Prefectures, +6.2pt on November Weekdays
- Silver Week 2026: Sep 20 Filled First, Final Night Sep 23 at 78.5% Estimated OCC — Inventory Sell-Through Across 14 Prefectures × Property Types
- Aichi Business Hotels, September: Thursday 92.5%, Sunday 84.8% — a Weekday-Type Trough That Also Shows on Fridays
- Ibaraki’s September Silver Week: Ryokan and Business Hotel Occupancy Diverged by up to 21.9pt — the Last Two Holiday Nights Didn’t Move From 45 Days Out
- Tokyo Business Hotels: Sunday-Night Estimated OCC 85.5% in August, 85.7% in September — Filling the Week’s Weakest Night From 30 Days Out
- Silver Week 2027 Is Only a Three-Day Weekend — the 2027 Holiday Calendar and the “Night Before a Holiday” Worth Pricing
References and Sources
■ Data sources
Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey (September 2026)”: current-conditions and outlook DIs (seasonally adjusted) and the collection of reasons for economic judgments (current and outlook); Bank of Japan, “Tankan (September 2026 survey)”; and MetroEngines Research daily estimated occupancy by prefecture × property type (based on OTA-listed inventory, August and September 2026, 4,849 properties and 398,877 rooms across 12 representative prefectures, based on listings on major booking sites).
■ Calculation assumptions
The five-day holiday is the average of the five nights from September 19 to 23; weekdays and weekends are averages of days excluding the five holiday days. The holiday lift to the monthly average is “the September average minus the September average if the five holiday days were replaced with the weekday average.” Comment counts tally the published comments from the four occupations — resort hotels, city hotels, resort ryokan and travel agencies — by judgment symbol, and outlook reasons were classified by the words in the text (one comment may fall into several categories).
■ Limitations
The collection of reasons for economic judgments consists of published comments selected by each regional survey body and is not the distribution of all respondents. Estimated occupancy is based on how OTA-listed inventory is absorbed and differs in scope and method from a property’s actual overall occupancy and from the room occupancy rate in the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey. Each representative prefecture is one prefecture per region and does not represent the whole region. Categories with fewer than 10 properties are not shown.
- Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026 Results”: summary (published October 8, 2026)
- Cabinet Office, “Economy Watchers Survey, September 2026 Results”: main report (watcher1.pdf)
- Cabinet Office, same survey: reasons for economic judgments (current conditions, by region; watcher2.pdf)／Same (outlook; watcher3.pdf)／Same, CSV versions (watcher4.csv, watcher5.csv)
- Bank of Japan, “Tankan (September 2026 Survey) Summary” (published October 1, 2026)
- Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey”
- MetroEngines Research — daily estimated occupancy by prefecture × property type (based on OTA-listed inventory, August and September 2026, 4,849 properties and 398,877 rooms across 12 prefectures)