Comparing the settled September 2026 estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent) for hotels and ryokan in Mie Prefecture with the same month a year earlier, business hotels rose +19.9% to ¥7,633 (N=93 properties) from ¥6,365 (N=95) in September 2025, and city hotels rose +11.8% to ¥8,472 (N=17) from ¥7,575 (N=17). Ryokan, by contrast, were essentially flat (−0.1%) at ¥15,564 (N=207) versus ¥15,576 (N=202). In August all three segments had been below the prior year — Business −1.6%, City −12.0%, Ryokan −7.0% — so September is where their paths diverged. This article examines the background to that split using the September 2026 calendar (the five-day holiday from September 19 to 23) and last year’s monthly shape, together with estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory), and sets out benchmarks that revenue managers running properties in Mie can hold their own numbers against.
Coverage: Mie Prefecture business hotels N=93, city hotels N=17, ryokan N=207 (all properties in the settled September 2026 aggregation). Price figures in this article are estimated settled ADR (the achieved-rate level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of October 22, 2026.
• ADR (average daily rate) = an estimated achieved rate (tax-exclusive equivalent), calculated by applying segment-specific adjustment factors to the lowest-plan level each property publishes on OTAs (per room, two adults, tax-inclusive). Checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual achieved rates and accounting figures.
• Area-level ADR (prefecture / municipality) is the median of the estimated achieved rates of the covered properties (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for two adults (tax-inclusive).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracking OTA public prices for approx. 168,000 properties, of which approx. 27,000 properties in Japan are confirmed in operation)
- — Business +19.9%, City +11.8%, Ryokan −0.1%: Mie’s settled September 2026 estimated settled ADR split by segment (N=93 / 17 / 207 properties). In August, all three were below the prior year.
- — Last September was a “trough”: In September 2025, Business (¥6,365) and City (¥7,575) were both the third-lowest month of the year (10th highest), so the double-digit growth also reflects a low base.
- — Four holiday nights at 94–99% estimated OCC in both segments (September 19–22, 2026, based on OTA-listed inventory). Volume arrived equally, but it was Business and City that carried it into monthly rates.
- — The next peak is November 21 (Sat): Business was already 96.6% full at T-45 and 98.9% at T-32 (Ryokan 97.6%). Revisiting price bands for the remaining rooms is the first priority.
Settled September YoY — Split at Business +19.9%, City +11.8%, Ryokan −0.1%
Start with the comparison between settled months. The table below lines up Mie’s estimated settled ADR by segment for June through September 2026 against the same months a year earlier (all settled figures). Business hotels had been tracking close to last year — June ¥6,101 (−6.5% YoY), July ¥7,065 (+1.2%), August ¥7,696 (−1.6%) — before jumping to ¥7,633 (+19.9%) in September. City hotels were below the prior year for three straight months (June −12.8%, July −4.5%, August −12.0%) and then turned positive in September at ¥8,472 (+11.8%). Ryokan, meanwhile, went June −6.6%, July −3.9%, August −7.0%, September −0.1% — narrowing the gap, but not reaching positive territory.
| Segment | Stay month | 2026 (N) | 2025 (N) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business | Jun | ¥6,101 (93) | ¥6,524 (96) | −6.5% |
| Business | Jul | ¥7,065 (94) | ¥6,983 (96) | +1.2% |
| Business | Aug | ¥7,696 (93) | ¥7,825 (95) | −1.6% |
| Business | Sep | ¥7,633 (93) | ¥6,365 (95) | +19.9% |
| City | Jun | ¥6,628 (16) | ¥7,600 (17) | −12.8% |
| City | Jul | ¥7,769 (16) | ¥8,135 (17) | −4.5% |
| City | Aug | ¥8,065 (17) | ¥9,164 (17) | −12.0% |
| City | Sep | ¥8,472 (17) | ¥7,575 (17) | +11.8% |
| Ryokan | Jun | ¥14,292 (207) | ¥15,310 (216) | −6.6% |
| Ryokan | Jul | ¥15,365 (207) | ¥15,985 (211) | −3.9% |
| Ryokan | Aug | ¥17,869 (205) | ¥19,218 (205) | −7.0% |
| Ryokan | Sep | ¥15,564 (207) | ¥15,576 (202) | −0.1% |
Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, settled). N = number of properties aggregated. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Note, however, that city hotels are a thin sample at N=17, small enough that a change in pricing at one or two properties can move the median. Rather than the +11.8% figure itself, it is more reasonable to read the change in direction: “three consecutive months below the prior year came to an end in September.” Business hotels (N=93) and ryokan (N=207) are deep enough for a prefecture-level aggregate, so both level and direction can be read there. Business hotel ADR was also above the prior year in 44 prefectures nationwide in September; to place Mie’s +19.9% within the national distribution, see Business Hotel ADR Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY, Median +7.9%.
Overlaying the Monthly Shape by Year — Last September’s “Trough” Became This Year’s “Peak”
To understand +19.9% growth, you need to see where the base — last September — sat. Business hotels’ monthly estimated settled ADR in 2025 peaked at ¥7,338 in April and ¥7,825 in August, while September, at ¥6,365, was a trough: the third-lowest of the 12 months (10th highest). City hotels were the same: September 2025 at ¥7,575 fell sharply from ¥9,164 in August and was likewise the third-lowest month of the year (10th highest). In other words, last September settled for both segments as “the trough after the August peak ended.”
In 2026, on the other hand, business hotels’ September (¥7,633) is the third-highest of the nine settled months January–September, after March (¥7,904) and August (¥7,696), and city hotels’ September (¥8,472) is second only to March (¥8,662). A trough month replaced by a peak month is what inflated YoY into double digits. The chart below overlays 2025 and 2026 on a January–December axis, making the September crossover easy to see.
Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent). Solid line = settled; dotted line = estimate based on current sales (subject to change). Business N=88–98 properties, City N=15–18 properties. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Note that October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales, and a straightforward comparison with settled figures must wait for each month to close. The dotted lines in the chart are reference lines showing “the level selling right now” and are not used in any YoY calculation.
Ryokan have a different annual shape. In 2025, ryokan had two peaks — August (¥19,218) and December (¥19,586) — and September (¥15,576) was the second-lowest month of the year (11th highest). In 2026 the drop from August (¥17,869) to September (¥15,564) has the same shape, and September ranks only seventh of the nine settled months. For ryokan, September was a “trough” both last year and this year; the trough-to-peak shift seen in Business and City did not happen.
Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent). Solid line = settled; dotted line = estimate based on current sales (subject to change). Ryokan N=195–225 properties. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The Five-Day Holiday, September 19–23 — Business and Ryokan Both Held 94%+ for Four Straight Nights
So what turned the trough into a peak? The strongest candidate is the calendar. According to the Cabinet Office’s list of national holidays, in 2026 Respect for the Aged Day fell on September 21 (Mon) and Autumnal Equinox Day on September 23 (Wed); September 22 (Tue), sandwiched between them, became a holiday under Article 3, Paragraph 3 of the National Holidays Act, creating a five-day holiday from September 19 (Sat) to 23 (Wed). In 2025, Respect for the Aged Day was September 15 (Mon) and Autumnal Equinox Day September 23 (Tue), split into a three-day weekend (September 13–15) and a standalone holiday. The calendar difference very likely changed “how high the peak was” in September, but not all of the ADR growth can be attributed to it, so here we limit ourselves to checking, with estimated OCC results, how concentrated holiday demand actually was.
Looking at daily estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) in September 2026 for a fixed cohort of Mie business hotels (N=63–66 properties, 6,921–7,144 rooms, based on major booking-site listings): September 18 (Fri), the day before the holiday, was 84.4%, followed by 99.3% on the 19th (Sat), 99.8% on the 20th (Sun), 99.9% on the 21st (Mon, holiday) and 94.7% on the 22nd (Tue, holiday) — holding in the mid-to-high 90s for four straight nights — before dropping to 73.7% on the final day, the 23rd (Wed, holiday). The ryokan cohort (N=91–129 properties, 2,415–3,369 rooms) went from 73.9% on the 18th to 98.0% on the 19th, 99.8% on the 20th, 99.5% on the 21st and 98.4% on the 22nd, then fell back to 78.5% on the 23rd. Four consecutive near-sellout nights in both segments clearly differ from other weekends in the month (for example, September 12 (Sat): Business 91.8%, Ryokan 85.2%; September 26 (Sat): Business 92.5%, Ryokan 85.7%). How bookings built toward this holiday, tracked at 31 days before arrival, was covered earlier in Mie Silver Week: Sep 20 Ryokan 97.5% at T-31, Sep 23 Just 66.1%.
Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory), September 2026, Mie Prefecture. Business N=63–66 properties, Ryokan N=91–129 properties. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
| Stay date | Calendar | Business est. OCC | Ryokan est. OCC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 (Fri) | Day before the holiday | 84.4% | 73.9% |
| Sep 19 (Sat) | Holiday day 1 | 99.3% | 98.0% |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Holiday day 2 | 99.8% | 99.8% |
| Sep 21 (Mon, Respect for the Aged Day) | Holiday day 3 | 99.9% | 99.5% |
| Sep 22 (Tue, national holiday) | Holiday day 4 | 94.7% | 98.4% |
| Sep 23 (Wed, Autumnal Equinox Day) | Final holiday day | 73.7% | 78.5% |
| September average | 30 days | 85.2% | 78.8% |
| September average (26 days excl. Sep 19–22) | — | 83.1% | 75.7% |
Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory), Mie Prefecture, September 2026. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
What stands out here is that, in terms of estimated OCC, the four holiday nights filled up almost identically in Business and Ryokan. The contribution to the monthly average — the gap versus the 26-day average excluding the four holiday days — was +2.1pt for Business and +3.1pt for Ryokan, actually larger for ryokan. Yet monthly estimated settled ADR split at +19.9% for Business and −0.1% for Ryokan. The “volume” of demand concentration reached both segments equally; the difference lies in whether it was reflected in the month’s “rate.”
There are several candidate explanations. One is how each segment moves prices: business and city hotels commonly reprice day by day at short lead times, which makes it easier to pass four consecutive nights of concentrated demand straight through to rate. Another is the ryokan annual shape itself: Mie ryokan have a two-peak pattern — ¥17,869 in August and rising again toward December — so September is structurally a trough month. Even if the four holiday nights sold at high rates, it is natural to conclude that this was not enough to lift the median for the whole month to last August’s level. These are, however, hypotheses read from the shape of settled figures and cannot verify the pricing intent of individual properties.
Estimated OCC by Day of Week — September Business: Sat 90.3%, Sun 76.5%; Ryokan: Sat 86.0%, Fri 74.3%
Looking at the normal day-of-week shape beyond the holiday effect: in September 2026, business hotels were highest on Saturday at an average 90.3% (4 days), followed by Thursday 89.3% (4 days) and Tuesday 86.3% (5 days), with Sunday lowest at 76.5% (4 days). Monday’s 87.8% includes the September 21 holiday, so Monday as a regular weekday should be read as lower than that. Ryokan peaked on Saturday at 86.0% (4 days), followed by Monday (including the holiday) at 81.1%, then Sunday 79.7% and Tuesday 78.8%, with Friday lowest at 74.3% (4 days). Business hotels show weekday business-travel demand lifting Thursday and Tuesday and a dip on Sunday; ryokan concentrate on Saturday with Friday not fully filling — different day-of-week peaks within the same prefecture. For another example of September’s day-of-week shape viewed excluding the holiday, Fukuoka Business Hotels Sep: Sat 92.8%, Sun 89.2% — 85.7% Ex-Holiday is a useful comparison.
This day-of-week shape is the premise for “which days you can push rate” in non-holiday weeks. Applying the same repricing calendar to business-hotel Saturdays and Thursdays in the 90s and Sundays in the 70s will produce different results.
The Next Demand Spike — November 21 (Sat) Already at 98.9% Business, 97.6% Ryokan
The question raised by September’s five-day holiday — whether demand concentration carries through to rate — applies directly to the next peak. In Mie in November, November 21 (Sat) to 23 (Mon, Labor Thanksgiving Day) is a three-day weekend, and according to Kanko Mie’s event listings, Rounds 11 and 12 of the All-Japan Super Formula Championship (the 25th JAF Suzuka Grand Prix) take place at Suzuka Circuit on November 21 (Sat) – 22 (Sun). The table below compares November Saturdays and a weekday on the booking curve (observed from 45 days before the stay date to the latest point).
| Stay date | Business T-45 | Business latest | Ryokan T-45 | Ryokan latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 (Sat) | 76.5% | 90.3% (T-11) | 76.6% | 89.6% (T-11) |
| Nov 7 (Sat) | 65.1% | 83.0% (T-18) | 77.2% | 85.2% (T-18) |
| Nov 14 (Sat) | 68.3% | 82.8% (T-25) | 78.4% | 87.7% (T-25) |
| Nov 18 (Wed) | 54.0% | 63.7% (T-29) | 68.0% | 73.5% (T-29) |
| Nov 21 (Sat, first day of 3-day weekend) | 96.6% | 98.9% (T-32) | 95.2% | 97.6% (T-32) |
| Nov 22 (Sun, middle day of 3-day weekend) | 67.8% | 73.2% (T-33) | 84.6% | 89.4% (T-33) |
Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory), Mie Prefecture. Business N=63 properties, 6,988 rooms; Ryokan N=116–119 properties, 3,392–3,450 rooms (based on major booking-site listings). Figures in parentheses are the lead time of the latest observation. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
November 21 (Sat) started at a different level from other Saturdays, which sat in a 65–78% band at T-45: Business was 96.6% at T-45 and 98.9% at the latest point (T-32), and Ryokan went from 95.2% to 97.6%. Whereas September’s five-day holiday “reached sellout close to arrival,” November 21 was already full from the first day of the observation window — reflecting the nature of demand such as race spectators, whose plans are fixed early. The following day, November 22 (Sun), shows Business at 73.2% (T-33), no different from other Saturdays’ pickup, while Ryokan is higher at 89.4%. Even within the same three-day weekend, Business concentrates on the first night while Ryokan carries through to the middle night — another segment difference. There are 30 days from this article’s data date to November 21, and inventory may still move, so this is limited to a description of current sales.
For Revenue Managers Running Business Hotels, City Hotels and Ryokan in Mie — Implications and Action Plan
Operational insights
1. Read YoY together with “where last year sat.” Business hotels’ +19.9% is also the flip side of last September (¥6,365) having been the third-lowest month of 2025. Even if your September grew sharply YoY, whether that is a rebound from a market-wide trough or a property-specific improvement can only be separated by putting the market’s settled figure of ¥7,633 (N=93) alongside your own results. For city hotels, the market’s settled figure of ¥8,472 rests on a thin N=17, so use direction (three months of YoY declines came to an end) rather than level as the benchmark.
2. The difference came not from “volume” but from “reflection in rate.” On the four nights of September 19–22, estimated OCC reached 94–99% for both Business and Ryokan, yet monthly estimated settled ADR split at Business +19.9% and Ryokan −0.1%. On sold-out nights, the price band at which rooms filled determines the month’s rate. Reviewing how far your achieved rate on the four holiday nights differed from regular weekends shows how much more you can capture on the next holiday.
3. For ryokan, take as given that September is a structural trough. Mie ryokan follow a two-peak shape, falling from ¥17,869 in August to ¥15,564 in September, and last year had the same shape. Rather than framing September’s YoY decline as “no growth despite the holiday,” reframing it as “how much of the holiday sitting on a trough month did we convert into rate” leads more directly to the next decision.
4. The next peak is November 21 (Sat), already at 98.9%. It was 96.6% at T-45 — full from the first day of the observation window. The timing of actions differs between nights that reach sellout close to arrival, like the September holiday, and nights that fill early. Together with day-of-week estimated OCC (Business: Sat 90.3%, Sun 76.5%; Ryokan: Sat 86.0%, Fri 74.3%), keep a map of which nights to target for rate and which for occupancy.
| Horizon | Action | Decision trigger (tied to figures in this article) | Aim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today – this week | Benchmark your September results against the market’s settled figures | If your September ADR YoY falls short of the market’s Business +19.9% / City +11.8% / Ryokan −0.1% | Determine whether your property kept pace with the market rebound |
| Today – this week | Compare achieved rates on the four holiday nights (Sep 19–22) with a regular Saturday | If your four holiday nights sold out like the market (estimated OCC 94–99%) but rates were no different from a regular Saturday | Size the room to convert demand concentration into rate |
| Within 2 weeks | Review remaining inventory and price bands for Nov 21 (Sat) | If you still have rooms left while the market is already at 98.9% (Business) / 97.6% (Ryokan) at T-32 | Sell the last rooms on an early-filling night at higher price bands |
| Within 2 weeks | Set Nov 22 (Sun) price and inventory allocation separately from Nov 21 | If market Business pickup for Nov 22 is 73.2% (T-33), more than 25pt behind Nov 21 | Don’t leave the middle night priced like the first night; go after occupancy |
| Toward next month | Rebuild your day-of-week repricing calendar around September’s DOW pattern | If your Sundays (market Business 76.5%) or ryokan Fridays (market 74.3%) are still priced the same as Saturday | Target occupancy on weak days and rate on strong days separately |
| Toward next month | Re-check the “position” of the prior year once October settles | Given that last October (Business ¥6,723 / City ¥7,603 / Ryokan ¥16,436) was not a trough, even if growth falls short of September’s | Avoid misreading slower growth as weaker performance |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading YoY
Mie’s settled September split by segment: Business ¥7,633 (+19.9%, N=93), City ¥8,472 (+11.8%, N=17), Ryokan ¥15,564 (−0.1%, N=207). Three yardsticks help apply this to your own property. First, where last year sat: last September was the third-lowest trough of the year for both Business and City, and that low base underlies the double-digit growth. Second, whether demand concentration reached rate: on the four nights of the five-day holiday, estimated OCC hit 94–99% for both Business and Ryokan, but it was Business and City that carried it into monthly rates. Third, the segment’s annual shape: ryokan have a two-peak pattern with August and December as peaks, so September is structurally a trough, and the holiday did not change that shape. The next peak, November 21 (Sat), is already at 98.9% Business and 97.6% Ryokan, filling early in a different pattern from September. When you see a YoY number, asking in turn “where was the base?”, “at what price did the sold-out nights fill?” and “should my segment treat this month as a trough?” allows decisions that are not swayed by the size of the growth rate.
About the Data
| Estimated OCC | Occupancy based on OTA-listed inventory = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of properties listing at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; the N shown in the text is the number of properties). This is an estimate based on how OTA-sold inventory is consumed and differs in definition from actual room occupancy (rooms not listed are counted on the consumed side, so it tends to read high). Target month: September 2026 (Mie Prefecture, Business N=63–66 properties / Ryokan N=91–129 properties). |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest point. November target dates: Mie Prefecture, Business N=63 properties / 6,988 rooms; Ryokan N=116–119 properties / 3,392–3,450 rooms (based on major booking-site listings). |
| Estimated settled ADR | Achieved-rate level (tax-exclusive equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × segment factor, ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are settled figures; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error of 6.6% against published operating results. YoY compares settled figures only. |
| Coverage N | Properties aggregated for estimated settled ADR: Mie Prefecture business hotels N=88–98, city hotels N=15–18, ryokan N=195–225 (varies by month; each month’s N is shown in the text and tables). Segments follow our own hotel classification (business hotel / city hotel / ryokan). |
| Data date | Data as of October 22, 2026. Sales and inventory change daily, so figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. |
References and Sources
Cabinet Office, “About National Holidays” (list of national holidays for 2026) [Japanese]: https://www8.cao.go.jp/chosei/shukujitsu/gaiyou.html
Kanko Mie, “2026 All-Japan Super Formula Championship” event listing (Suzuka Circuit area events; lists the 25th JAF Suzuka Grand Prix, November 21–22, 2026) [Japanese]: https://www.kankomie.or.jp/event/38471
Mapple Travel Guide, “Silver Week 2026 is a five-day holiday” [Japanese]: https://www.mapple.net/original/208425/
Related Reading
- Mie Silver Week: Sep 20 Ryokan 97.5% at T-31, Sep 23 Just 66.1%
- Mie Silver Week Peak Settled at T-45 (93.6%): T-45/T-30/T-14 Calendar
- Mie Silver Week: Middle Nights Sold Out, Closing Sep 23 Ryokan 73.7%
- Business Hotel ADR Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY, Median +7.9%
- Hiroshima City Hotels +18.9% in Sept, Business +12.1%: ADR Rebounds
- Fukuoka Business Hotels Sep: Sat 92.8%, Sun 89.2% — 85.7% Ex-Holiday
- Hokkaido Business Hotels Aren’t Weekend-Led: Thu 95.4% Ties Sat 95.4%