Executive Summary — Rates Skew to Karuizawa, Occupancy Skews to Business and City Hotels

To state the conclusion first: Nagano Prefecture’s investment opportunity lies in the gap between its “rate hierarchy” and its “occupancy hierarchy.” Resorts and castle towns such as Karuizawa, Achi, Omachi and Matsumoto top the estimated settled ADR rankings, while the room occupancy rates in the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics (final 2025) are highest for urban property types — business hotels at 75.7% (10th nationally) and city hotels at 76.1% (8th) — with ryokan at 27.2% and resort hotels at 37.7% sinking into the 40s nationally. In other words, the higher-rate property types have more empty rooms and the lower-rate types are fuller; urban properties offer upside in rates, while resorts and ryokan offer upside in occupancy, and each becomes an investment theme.

In addition, the prefecture’s estimated settled ADR grew strongly in winter: +24% YoY in December 2025 and +19% in January 2026 (+11% in February). Resort hotels rose 22.9% YoY in January and ryokan 27.8% in December, making this a year in which rates in winter-type areas capturing ski demand stepped up a level. Please read on with this division of roles in mind: summer Karuizawa and winter Hakuba and Nozawa lift the prefecture’s rates, while year-round Nagano City and Matsumoto sustain occupancy with business demand.

Rate Tiers by Municipality — Dividing the 26 Municipalities with Estimated Settled ADR into Four Tiers

First, let us examine the prefecture’s rate structure. In MetroEngines Research’s municipal data, 62 of Nagano’s 73 municipalities have a calculable estimated settled ADR, but this article ranks only the 26 municipalities with 5 or more covered properties on an estimated-settled basis (villages with fewer than 5 covered properties, such as Aoki, Matsukawa, Koumi and Otaki, are treated as reference values and excluded from the ranking because their prices are set by just 1–2 properties). The “Feb index” and “Aug index” columns show each month’s level with the average of the latest 12 months (October 2025–September 2026) set at 1.00, and are used to classify seasonal type.

Rates fall into four tiers. Tier 1 is Karuizawa (¥27,000) and Achi (¥23,000), both above ¥20,000. Both are summer-type, but whereas Karuizawa jumps to ¥38,100 in August, Achi swings little (Feb index 0.90, Aug index 1.16), reflecting the overlap of year-round demand at Hirugami Onsen and summer stargazing tourism. Tier 2 is the ¥13,000–16,000 group of Takayama, Omachi, Komagane, Matsumoto, Komoro, Shimosuwa and Chino. Matsumoto, despite having the deepest sample in the prefecture at 107 covered properties, holds ¥14,400 (+5.3% YoY) — 31% above the prefectural capital, Nagano City (¥11,000). A second city out-pricing its prefectural capital is something only five cities nationwide achieve.

Tier 3 is the ¥11,000–13,000 group of Kiso, Hakuba, Chikuma, Nozawa Onsen, Shinano, Yamanouchi and Nagano City, where the winter-type Hakuba and Nozawa Onsen sit alongside Yamanouchi, a year-round type that leans toward winter. Hakuba is ¥12,000 in September but ¥19,500 in February (index 1.36); Nozawa Onsen is ¥16,000 in February (1.22) and Yamanouchi ¥14,400 (1.13), so the September snapshot ranking does not reflect the true strength of winter-type areas. Tier 4 is the sub-¥11,000 group of Suwa, Miyota, Azumino, Shiojiri, Ueda, Iiyama, Iida, Otari, Saku and Ina — areas where business and leisure demand are mixed. Among these, Suwa has the second-largest summer peak in the prefecture with an Aug index of 1.45, with rates nearly doubling only in the month of the Suwa Lake Festival fireworks.

Five municipalities posted YoY declines: Shimosuwa, Kiso, Nozawa Onsen, Shinano and Otari. What they have in common is either few covered properties or a snapshot outside the peak month of a winter- or summer-type area. Otari (-14.8%) is winter-type with a Feb index of 1.23, so September can be read simply as off-season pricing held lower than the prior year. Shinano (-21.4%) and Shimosuwa (-5.4%) are strong in summer with Aug indices of 1.22 and 1.31, leaving upside if year-round rates can be smoothed. Because off-peak rates in such towns lag well behind their peak-month levels, they should be seen as areas with large room to lift annual ADR through operational improvement.

Summer, Winter and Year-Round Types — How “Peak Months” Diverge Over 25 Months

Next, we overlay the prefecture-wide monthly trend against the prior year. Laying the 25 months from September 2024 to September 2026 on a January–December axis, Nagano Prefecture’s estimated settled ADR shows two peaks: August and December–January. August was essentially flat at ¥13,700 in 2025 and ¥13,700 in 2026 (-0.3% YoY), whereas the winter peak rose clearly, to ¥14,100 in December 2025 (+23.8% YoY) and ¥13,800 in January 2026 (+19.3%). The latest month, September, was ¥11,800 (+3.7% YoY); by property type, growth was led by business hotels (+11.6%), followed by resort hotels (+8.8%), city hotels (+5.0%) and ryokan (+4.7%).

Overlaying the seasonal indices by municipality, three types separate clearly. Karuizawa rises to 1.61 in August and falls to 0.85 in February, and Suwa is 1.45 in August and 0.80 in February — these are “summer-type” areas that make their annual profit in summer. Hakuba (1.36 in February, 0.90 in August) and Nozawa Onsen (1.22 in February) are “winter-type.” Nagano City, at 0.97 in February and 1.05 in August, is nearly flat throughout the year — a “year-round type.” Matsumoto, at 1.20 in August and 0.81 in February, falls into the summer type under this article’s criteria. Yamanouchi leans toward winter at 1.13 in February, but because Shiga Kogen ski demand mixes with year-round demand at Yudanaka and Shibu Onsen, it is classified as year-round under this article’s criteria (an index of 1.15 or higher in February or August).

For investment decisions, differences in seasonal type matter more than the level of rates itself. Summer-type areas tend to generate around 30% of annual revenue in the one or two months around August, so profitability is determined by having enough rooms to capture that peak and an operating structure that can contain fixed costs in the off-season. In winter-type areas, skiers stay longer and rates concentrate in December–February, overlapping Lunar New Year and Western winter holidays, so the year’s results shift depending on which week overseas holidays fall in — as with Lunar New Year 2027 (February 6). Year-round Nagano City and Matsumoto have smaller seasonal swings, so yields depend on choosing locations that capture both weekday business demand and weekend leisure demand.

Room Stock Within 2 km of Six Key Stations — Matsumoto +28% Over 10 Years, Suwa and Yudanaka Shrinking

What about the supply side? For a 2 km radius around each of Nagano, Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Hakuba, Kami-Suwa and Yudanaka stations, we counted lodging properties with 10 or more rooms, split into listed and active (properties with sale prices confirmed on major booking sites in the most recent 3 months).

The Nagano Station 2 km area has 45 active properties / 3,836 rooms, with business hotels accounting for 2,660 rooms, or 70%. The 10-year trend is a modest +6.1%, from 3,695 to 3,921 rooms; even with large additions such as APA Hotel Nagano (アパホテル〈長野〉, 185 rooms) in 2021 and Toyoko Inn Nagano-eki Higashi-guchi (東横INN長野駅東口, 239 rooms) in 2023, the total has stayed roughly constant. The Matsumoto Station 2 km area has 33 properties / 3,545 rooms, growing +27.6% from 2,799 rooms in 2017 to 3,572 — the largest increase of the six areas. Toyoko Inn Matsumoto-eki Higashi-guchi (東横INN松本駅東口, 333 rooms) in 2020, Tabino Hotel lit Matsumoto (たびのホテルlit松本, 176 rooms) in 2021 and Onyado Nono Matsumoto (御宿 野乃松本, 168 rooms) in 2022 opened in quick succession, yet estimated settled ADR still holds at ¥14,400 (+5.3% YoY), demonstrating the depth of Matsumoto’s demand.

By contrast, the Kami-Suwa Station area shrank from 1,194 to 1,129 rooms (−5.4%) and the Yudanaka Station area from 788 to 723 rooms (−8.2%). Both are dominated by ryokan: at Kami-Suwa, ryokan account for 466 of 1,065 active rooms, and at Yudanaka 657 of 681. Areas where supply is shrinking while rates rise (Suwa +3.5%, Yamanouchi +2.8%) are typical of places where acquiring and renovating existing ryokan still leaves room to lift both rates and occupancy; this is addressed in Scenario C later in the article. In the Hakuba Station area, only 52 of the 124 listed properties had confirmed sales in the most recent 3 months — less than half — directly reflecting the structure of a winter-type area with many small properties that suspend sales in summer.

The Karuizawa Station 2 km area has 38 active properties / 1,891 rooms, with resort hotels accounting for 1,567 rooms, or 80%. Small properties dominate — 30 properties / 745 rooms have 50 rooms or fewer — and only one has more than 200 rooms. Following Grandistyle Kyu-Karuizawa (グランディスタイル旧軽井沢, 65 rooms) in August 2025, the opening of Regent Karuizawa (58 rooms, IHG) has been announced for 2028, further thickening the small, high-rate tier.

Estimated Occupancy and Booking Curves by Property Type — 88% in September, 91% for Business and City Hotels

We verify demand through occupancy. Occupancy estimated from inventory depletion on major booking sites (OTA-listed inventory basis, estimate) was 88.4% for Nagano Prefecture overall in September 2026 (507 properties / 18,893 rooms) and 92.5% in August (557 properties / 19,508 rooms). By property type, business hotels (91.2%) and city hotels (91.1%) were high, with ryokan somewhat lower at 86.1%. In September, prefecture-wide estimated occupancy rose to 96–99.5% for the nights of the 19th–22nd during the five-day holiday of September 19–23, while non-holiday weekdays (Monday–Friday nights) ran at 84–90% and Sunday nights at 81–85%.

This estimate is the depletion rate of inventory sold on major booking sites, and runs higher than the Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy, which uses all rooms as the denominator. By property type in the JTA Overnight Travel Statistics (final 2025), Nagano ranks near the top for business hotels (75.7%, 10th nationally) and city hotels (76.1%, 8th), whereas ryokan (27.2%) and resort hotels (37.7%) rank 43rd and 40th, and the prefecture overall, at 39.0%, is the lowest of all 47 prefectures. The prefecture’s structure — in which small ryokan, pensions and minshuku guesthouses make up the majority of properties — drags the average down, so when choosing investment targets one must read the distribution by property type rather than the “39% prefectural average.”

We also look at how bookings accumulate. The September 2026 monthly-average booking curve (about 690 properties / 21,946 rooms, LT45–1) progressed from estimated occupancy of 64.1% at 45 days before arrival to 70.1% at 30 days, 77.5% at 14 days, 80.5% at 7 days and 88.4% on the day before. August (about 552 properties / 19,620 rooms) went from 68.1% at 45 days to 92.5% on the day before; the curve runs nearly parallel to September’s but around 4 points higher overall. The prefectural norm is for just over 60% to be filled 45 days out, with the remaining just-under-30% accumulating in the final two weeks; because so much demand moves late, there is room to capture rate through a stepped pricing design.

The Empty Price Band — Only Three Properties Each in the ¥15,000–25,000 Band at Nagano and Matsumoto Stations

Overlaying the rate hierarchy and supply at the property level shows which price bands are thin on rooms. For active properties within 2 km of Nagano, Matsumoto and Karuizawa stations, we grouped the median estimated settled ADR over the latest 12 months into bands (multiple listings of the same property were consolidated).

In the Nagano Station 2 km area, 21 properties / 1,696 rooms are concentrated below ¥10,000 and 12 properties / 1,266 rooms in the ¥10,000–15,000 band, while the ¥15,000–25,000 band has just 3 properties / 313 rooms and there is not a single property at ¥25,000 or above. Matsumoto Station is similar: 22 properties / 2,134 rooms below ¥10,000, 3 properties / 474 rooms in the ¥15,000–25,000 band, and only 1 property / 88 rooms at ¥25,000+. In both cities, business-hotel estimated occupancy exceeds 90% and business-type estimated settled ADR is growing 11.6% YoY, yet the ¥15,000–25,000 upper-midscale band remains a supply gap. By contrast, the Karuizawa Station 2 km area is thickest in the ¥25,000–40,000 band (11 properties / 1,098 rooms), with 3 more at ¥40,000+; its gap is instead in the mid-price ¥10,000–15,000 band (4 properties / 111 rooms).

Site Assessment — Double-Digit Land Price Gains in Karuizawa; 80% of Nagano Station-Front Rooms in Flood-Inundation Zones

We checked land prices and disaster risk — the prerequisites for site acquisition — using the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Real Estate Information Library. In the 2026 official land price publication, the commercial site in front of Nagano Station (Nagano 5-2, Minami-Nagano) was ¥385,000/㎡ (+3.5% YoY) and the one in front of Matsumoto Station (Matsumoto 5-2, Fukashi 1-chome) ¥245,000/㎡ (+2.1%), both modest increases. By contrast, Karuizawa’s official land price point (Karuizawa 5-1, Higashi-Nozawahara) was ¥228,000/㎡ (+15.7%), and in the prefectural land price survey as of July 2026, the commercial point in Kyu-Karuizawa (Karuizawa 5-1, Yashiki east side) was ¥435,000/㎡ (+16.0%), showing outsized gains within the prefecture. Land in Karuizawa is now priced at or above the level of Nagano’s station front, creating a structure in which land cost determines yield, as discussed in Scenario B below.

Flood-inundation zones are easy for investors to overlook. Overlaying the maximum-scenario flood-inundation zones on the locations of active properties, 27 of the 45 properties / 3,122 of the 3,836 rooms (81% of rooms) within 2 km of Nagano Station lie inside a zone, mostly in the Susobana River’s 0.5 m to under 3.0 m depth rank. The inundation zone of the Chikuma River main stream extends east of the station’s 2 km radius (toward Naganuma and Toyono), so the station front is not affected; but given that eastern Nagano City was flooded by Typhoon Hagibis (No. 19) in 2019, anyone considering a site along the Chikuma River should build inundation depth and evacuation planning into acquisition conditions. Within 2 km of Matsumoto Station, 32 properties / 3,475 rooms lie within the zones of the Metoba, Susuki and Ta rivers, again mostly at 0.5 m to under 3.0 m. Within 2 km of Karuizawa Station, 20 properties / 1,066 rooms fall within the Doro River zone, but 16 properties / 967 rooms are in the shallow 0 to under 0.5 m rank, so the practical impact appears limited.

Being inside an inundation zone is an inherent feature of station-front locations, and many existing hotels operate under the same conditions. For investment decisions, the key question is whether the cost of countermeasures — designs that place no guest rooms or machine rooms on the ground floor, water-stopping for underground parking, and a business continuity plan (BCP) — can be built into the business plan.

New Supply — 953 Rooms in 2026, with 159 Rooms in Otari and 194 in Sakudaira Standing Out

We check the supply pipeline using two sources. New properties in Nagano Prefecture identified by MetroEngines Research on the basis of confirmed listings on major booking sites totaled 78 properties / 460 rooms in 2025 and 77 properties / 953 rooms in 2026 (as of October 23). However, 60 of the 78 properties in 2025 and 51 of the 77 in 2026 are vacation rentals and cottages with 5 rooms or fewer, with whole-house rentals in Hakuba, Karuizawa and Azumino pushing up the count. Narrowing to 30+ rooms gives the table below: in 2026, in addition to Hotel Route-Inn Grand Saku (ホテルルートインGrand佐久, 194 rooms, June) and AB Hotel Chino (ABホテル茅野, 121 rooms, September), a 159-room lodging facility is scheduled for completion in Chikuni-Otsu, Otari, in December.

The 159 rooms in Otari correspond to the renovation of Hakuba Alps Hotel (白馬アルプスホテル), which connects directly to the Hakuba Norikura Onsen ski area. According to the operator’s announcement, management of the hotel was transferred to Plan・Do・See from April 2026 for a major renovation, with full post-renovation operations scheduled to begin in December 2026, and it has started appearing on major booking sites as “THE ALPS HOTEL HAKUBA.” Because the post-renovation room count cannot be confirmed in published materials, this article treats the 159 rooms from the Building Dynamics Statistics as a provisional figure. Otari’s estimated settled ADR is ¥8,000 in September (-14.8% YoY) but ¥12,900 in February, placing it in a winter-type price band close to Hakuba’s ¥19,500 in February. Whether a mid-sized ski-in hotel can push its rates toward Hakuba’s level will be a litmus test for gauging investment room in winter-type areas.

The other source is MLIT’s Building Construction Starts Statistics. Construction starts of lodging-use buildings in Nagano reached 178 in 2024, the most since 2019, but total floor area was only 23,390㎡ — a third of 2022 (69,302㎡) — and the average per building shrank to 131㎡. This shows that the increase in building count is driven by construction of small vacation rentals and villas, and that large supply in terms of room count is limited. Compared with 513㎡ per building in 2022 (135 buildings), mid-to-large hotel starts appear to have run their course in 2023–24, and current construction-start data do not indicate a concern that 100-room-class supply will pile up around stations or in hot-spring towns in 2026–27.

REIT Holdings and the 2027 Gokaicho — Actual Results Investors Can Reference

According to each investment corporation’s portfolio list (as of October 19, 2026), listed hotel REITs hold 10 properties / 850 rooms in Nagano Prefecture, with a total acquisition price of ¥25,415 million. Acquisition price per room is ¥29.9 million, mixing high-rate resorts in Karuizawa and Tateshina with business hotels in front of Nagano Station and in Shiojiri, Suwa and Chino. Lining up the August 2026 property-level results disclosed by each investment corporation, Smile Hotel Nagano posted 96.8% occupancy and ADR of ¥13,363, and Tateshina Grand Hotel Takinoyu (蓼科グランドホテル滝の湯) 98.3% occupancy and ADR of ¥56,958, recording high occupancy by capturing August summer-type demand.

These actual results can be compared with this article’s estimated settled ADR on the same tax-exclusive equivalent basis (this article’s ADR is an estimate; validated against REIT-disclosed results, the median error is about 7%). For example, Nagano City’s estimated settled ADR is ¥11,000 in September and ¥11,600 in August, so Smile Hotel Nagano’s August ADR of ¥13,363 sits just under 20% above the city median. Against Chino’s August estimated settled ADR of ¥15,200, Tateshina Grand Hotel Takinoyu’s ¥56,958 is far above, showing that the large hot-spring resort on the Tateshina Plateau operates in a price band separate from the city median. For investors, the gap between an area median and an actual property offers a real-world example of “how much rate premium location, scale and facilities can command.”

In Nagano City, the Gokaicho (public unveiling) of Zenkoji Temple’s Maedachi Honzon is scheduled for 77 days from April 4 to June 19, 2027. During the 2022 Gokaicho, Nagano City’s estimated settled ADR was ¥8,300 in May, +24% above the January–March average of ¥6,600 that year. However, spring 2022 coincided with the lifting of pandemic movement restrictions, so it is hard to read as the effect of the Gokaicho alone. We have estimated room stock within 3 km of the temple and the required ADR for new development in a separate article, so here we point out only what bears on investment decisions. Nagano City is a year-round type with a normal-period estimated settled ADR of ¥11,000, and has just 3 properties / 313 rooms in the ¥15,000–25,000 band within 2 km of the station. Therefore, not only for the 77 days of the Gokaicho, a realistic investment opportunity lies in renovating or repositioning existing hotels in time for a spring 2027 opening, as upper-midscale capacity to capture rising business-demand rates (prefectural business-type +11.6% YoY).

Development and Acquisition Scenario Estimates — About 6% for Urban New Builds, 7% for Acquiring and Renovating a Winter-Type Ryokan

Based on the data above, we ran simple estimates of a representative investment scenario for each area type. For construction cost, this article assumes ¥2.4 million per tsubo for steel-frame midscale and ¥3.3 million per tsubo for luxury (the national average for lodging use in MLIT’s Building Construction Starts Statistics was ¥1.955 million per tsubo in 2024), and compounds construction-period inflation using Turner & Townsend’s forecasts (+5.3% in 2026, +5.0% in 2027). For GOP margin, referring to the 38.9% actual for operated properties disclosed by Invincible Investment Corporation (fiscal period ended December 2024), we adopted 35% as a conservative first-year value for new openings (30% for ryokan acquisition). Land prices use the official land price values from the previous section, and floor area ratios are 500% for the commercial district in front of Nagano Station and 80% for low-rise residential zoning in Karuizawa.

Scenario A is a 100-room upper-midscale hotel in front of Nagano Station, assuming ADR of ¥16,000 — the lower end of the ¥15,000–25,000 band identified as a gap in the previous section — and year-round occupancy of 78%. Total investment is ¥2.47 billion before inflation and ¥2.71 billion after, taking the GOP yield from 6.5% to 5.9%. Because existing business hotels in this market run at estimated occupancy above 90%, 78% year-round is a conservative assumption; the upside factor is whether large hot-spring baths or breakfast can command rates in the high ¥15,000s. Scenario B is a 30-room luxury property in Karuizawa: even with ADR of ¥55,000 and year-round occupancy of 62%, the ¥700 million land cost and ¥3.3 million/tsubo construction cost weigh heavily, and the yield stops at 4.1%. Securing yield in Karuizawa tends to come down to two options: acquiring and renovating an existing property in Kyu-Karuizawa, or targeting a price band of ¥80,000+ ADR.

Scenario C assumes acquiring an existing 80-room ryokan in a winter-type area such as Hakuba or Otari at ¥10 million per room and investing ¥8 million per room in renovation. Operating 120 winter days at ADR ¥25,000 and 85% occupancy and 245 summer days at ADR ¥11,000 and 55% occupancy yields revenue of ¥323 million and, at a 30% GOP margin, a yield of 6.7% — the highest of the three scenarios. Against actual estimated settled ADR in February of ¥19,500 for Hakuba and ¥12,900 for Otari, a winter ADR of ¥25,000 is above the current median, but it is within reach for a property with features such as ski-in access or rooms with private hot-spring baths. The same type of estimate holds for ryokan in Kami-Suwa and Yudanaka, where supply is shrinking, and if the acquisition price falls below ¥10 million per room, yields rise further.

In the sensitivity analysis, a 10% drop in ADR lowers the yield by 0.6 points, and a 5-point drop in occupancy lowers it by 0.4 points. Because Nagano City is a year-round type with small seasonal swings, the yield holds at 5.0% even if both occur together. In summer- and winter-type areas, the same −10% has a larger impact if concentrated in peak months, so for Scenarios B and C we recommend examining sensitivity with peak-month rates separated out.

Two-Axis Sensitivity — Scenario A: ADR × Occupancy; Scenario C: Winter ADR × Acquisition Price per Room

Because one-axis sensitivity alone makes it hard to see “how far things can deteriorate and still be acceptable,” we built GOP yield grids on two axes: ADR and year-round occupancy for Scenario A, and winter ADR and acquisition price per room for Scenario C (other assumptions as in Table 11; the shaded cell is the base case).

In the Scenario A grid, the pessimistic case of ADR ¥13,000 and 68% year-round occupancy gives 4.2%, the base case 5.9%, and the optimistic case of ADR ¥19,000 and 88% gives 7.9%. Because yield is proportional to ADR × occupancy, a 10% (¥1,600) drop in ADR is equivalent to about 8 points of year-round occupancy. In a market where station-front business hotels run at around 90%, there are only about 10 points of occupancy upside, and at ADR ¥13,000 even 88% occupancy gives just 5.4%, below the base — so the downside risk at this location lies on the rate side rather than occupancy. Going after the ¥15,000–25,000 gap, ADR ¥17,500 at 83% gives 6.9%, approaching 7%.

Scenario C is highly sensitive to acquisition price. Holding winter ADR at ¥25,000, an acquisition price rising to ¥14 million per room gives 5.5%, while falling to ¥6 million gives 8.6%. On the other hand, setting winter ADR at Hakuba’s February median of ¥19,500 gives 5.8% at a ¥10 million acquisition, and at Otari’s February median of ¥12,900 it falls to 4.7%. For ryokan acquisitions in winter-type areas, yield is largely determined by two factors: whether winter ADR can be set above the local median after renovation, and how far the acquisition price per room can be held down.

Conclusion — Which “Type” to Invest In in Nagano Prefecture

Judging lodging investment in Nagano Prefecture by prefectural averages is misleading. Estimated settled ADR spreads 3.4x across municipalities, from ¥27,000 in Karuizawa to ¥7,900 in Saku; room occupancy by property type ranges from 75.7% for business hotels to 27.2% for ryokan; and peak months split into 14 summer-type, 4 winter-type and 8 year-round municipalities. Overlaying these three axes, investment opportunities can be organized into three. First, upper-midscale properties in the ¥15,000–25,000 band in year-round Nagano City and Matsumoto (a gap band with only three properties in each city, where business-type rates are growing by double digits YoY). Second, acquisition and renovation of existing ryokan in hot-spring towns and ski areas such as Kami-Suwa, Yudanaka and Hakuba, where supply is shrinking while rates rise (around 7% yield in simple estimates). Third, in Karuizawa, where land prices are rising by double digits, a strategy of repositioning existing properties rather than building new, targeting the mid-price band below the supply concentrated at ¥25,000+.

On the risk side, acquisition terms and opening timing must account for the fact that station-front locations at Nagano and Matsumoto are widely included in maximum-scenario flood-inundation zones, and that 100-room-class new supply continues in business-oriented areas in 2026 — such as 194 rooms in Sakudaira and 121 in Chino — while in winter-type Otari an existing hotel of around 159 rooms reopens after renovation. On the other hand, as the Building Construction Starts Statistics show, large hotel starts ran their course in 2023–24, and with the demand and supply events of the 2027 Zenkoji Gokaicho and the 2028 Regent Karuizawa ahead, we expect a phase of rising rates across existing stock to continue.