According to “The Current State of Nouhaku” published by Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF, data as of February 3, 2026), 673 areas were running nouhaku (農泊) — stay-based rural tourism in Japan’s farming, mountain and fishing villages — as of the end of FY2024, drawing 8.676 million guest nights. That already clears the 7.00 million guest nights the Basic Plan for the Promotion of a Tourism Nation set for FY2025, a year ahead of schedule. The next marker is the 12.00 million guest nights written into the Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas for FY2029. This article overlays that official statistic with our own lodging inventory and pricing data to map where Japan’s rural-stay capacity sits, how large it is, and how it moves during the September–November harvest season.
- — 673 areas, 8.676 million guest nights (FY2024). Japan passed the 7.00 million guest nights targeted for FY2025 ahead of schedule; the next markers are 12.00 million guest nights and ¥220.0 billion in revenue by FY2029.
- — Capacity stands at 5,742 properties, an average of 8.5 per area. Across the ten prefectures with the most nouhaku areas we count 4,784 minshuku, pensions, vacation rentals and ryokan, with Nagano alone accounting for 1,448.
- — There is room on the occupancy side. Final full-year 2025 figures put occupancy at 38.2% for ryokan and 29.6% for simple lodgings, against 75.3% for business hotels and 74.1% for city hotels.
- — Harvest season builds demand at the same lead time. At LT87, occupancy in Nagano moves from 64.7% on June 13 to 75.6% on October 10 (+10.9pt); Gifu gains +14.9pt. Average listed prices rise alongside.
- — Pricing latitude varies by property type. In Nagano the 2025 intra-year swing was 21.0% for ryokan and 26.2% for vacation rentals, against 6.8% for minshuku and 11.2% for pensions. Smaller properties still have seasonal headroom.
Metric Definitions Used in This Article
- ADR (average daily rate): an estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying a property-type correction factor to the lowest published plan rate each property lists on OTAs and elsewhere (double occupancy, per-room, tax-included). Cross-checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent three months), the median error is roughly 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual transacted rates and accounting figures. Area-level ADR is the median across the properties covered (the level of a typical property in that area).
- Listed price: the average of all plans published on OTAs and elsewhere (double occupancy, per-room, tax-included, spanning room-only through meal-inclusive plans). Because it is measured on a different basis from ADR, the two should not be compared directly.
- OCC (occupancy): sold rooms as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory). It reflects how far inventory offered on OTAs has sold through and differs from a property’s true overall occupancy.
- LT (lead time): days remaining until check-in. LT0 = same day.
- Guest nights: the unit used for total overnight stays. One person staying one night counts as one guest night. MAFF and Japan Tourism Agency statistics use this per-person unit. The listed prices and ADR in this article are per-room amounts, so the units differ.
- Data sources: MetroEngines Research, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japan Tourism Agency
673 areas, 8.68 million guest nights — 1.5x the pre-pandemic level
MAFF tracks guest nights in nouhaku areas by fiscal year. The series starts at 1.903 million guest nights across 206 areas in FY2017, expands to 5.892 million across 515 areas in FY2019, falls to 3.906 million in FY2020, then recovers to 6.108 million in FY2022, 7.942 million in FY2023 and 8.676 million across 673 areas in FY2024. That is 1.47 times the FY2019 level and 4.6 times FY2017.
Breaking FY2024 down, Japanese guest nights came to 7.927 million and foreign guest nights to 748,000. The foreign share was 8.6%, above the 6.4% recorded in FY2019. With inbound demand concentrated heavily in the three major metropolitan areas, that figure shows real overnight volume also accumulating on the rural side.
Source: MAFF, “The Current State of Nouhaku” (as of February 3, 2026) and “FY2024 Performance Survey of Nouhaku Areas” (conducted October 2025); compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
It is worth anchoring the scale. In the final full-year figures for 2025 from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, national guest nights totaled 661.11 million (+0.3% year on year), of which 179.92 million were foreign visitors (+9.4%). The 8.676 million guest nights in nouhaku areas amount to roughly 1.3% of that national figure. Because one series is compiled by fiscal year and the other by calendar year, this is not a strict share — but it places nouhaku’s position within national lodging demand at the right order of magnitude.
7 million was a waypoint; the horizon is 12 million guest nights in FY2029
Two targets of different character sit over nouhaku. The first is the Basic Plan for the Promotion of a Tourism Nation (cabinet decision of March 31, 2023), which set “7 million annual guest nights in nouhaku areas by FY2025.” The Nouhaku Promotion Action Plan (covering FY2023–FY2025) carries the same 7 million figure, alongside a 10% share for inbound travelers. The second is the Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas (cabinet decision of April 11, 2025): “12 million guest nights and ¥220.0 billion in revenue by FY2029.”
FY2024’s 8.676 million guest nights already exceeds the first level, with revenue recorded at ¥159.8 billion. Against the second target of 12 million, roughly 38% of growth headroom remains from the FY2024 base. Since the targets carry different horizons and sources, they are best read against their respective plan periods rather than collapsed into a single achievement rate.
| Item | FY2024 result | Target | Target year / basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total guest nights | 8.676M | 7.00M | FY2025 / Basic Plan for the Promotion of a Tourism Nation (cabinet decision, March 31, 2023) |
| Total guest nights | 8.676M | 12.00M | FY2029 / Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas (cabinet decision, April 11, 2025) |
| Revenue | ¥159.8bn | ¥220.0bn | FY2029 / Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas |
| Share of inbound travelers | 8.6% | 10% | FY2025 / Nouhaku Promotion Action Plan |
| Number of nouhaku areas | 673 | — | As of end of FY2024 |
| Lodging properties in nouhaku areas | 5,742 | — | As of end of FY2024 |
Source: MAFF, “The Current State of Nouhaku” (as of February 3, 2026); compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
Dividing those 5,742 lodging properties across 673 areas gives an average of 8.5 per area. Dividing guest nights by property count gives roughly 1,511 guest nights per property per year, or about 4.1 per day. Nouhaku is structurally a wide, thin scattering of small-scale capacity. Read the other way, that means the headroom per area and per property is large.
It helps to view the 12 million target as the product of area count and guest nights per area. FY2024 delivered 8.676 million guest nights across 673 areas, or 12,891 guest nights per area per year. The table below lays out that identity as a grid — adding areas horizontally versus deepening volume per area. It is arithmetic decomposition only, and does not indicate which combination will materialize.
| Nouhaku areas | 12,891 guest nights/area (FY2024 actual) | 14,500 guest nights/area | 16,000 guest nights/area |
|---|---|---|---|
| 673 areas | 8.676M (actual) | 9.759M | 10.768M |
| 750 areas | 9.668M | 10.875M | 12.000M |
| 850 areas | 10.957M | 12.325M | 13.600M |
Arithmetic decomposition based on the identity “total guest nights = nouhaku areas × annual guest nights per area.” It is neither a forecast nor an outlook on target attainment. The shaded cell is the FY2024 result (673 areas, 12,891 guest nights/area, 8.676M); the bold cell is the combination that exactly matches the FY2029 target of 12 million guest nights. Source: MAFF, “The Current State of Nouhaku” (as of February 3, 2026); compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
Where the capacity sits — Niigata and Miyagi lead with 26 areas each
Broken out by prefecture, Niigata and Miyagi tie at 26 areas each, followed by Kumamoto with 24, Nagano and Kagoshima with 23 each, Gifu 22, Chiba and Shizuoka 21 each, Mie 20 and Okayama 19. By region, Kanto (Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Yamanashi, Nagano and Shizuoka) is thickest at 136 areas, followed by Chugoku-Shikoku 101, Kyushu 100, Tohoku 92, Hokuriku 65, Kinki 59, Hokkaido 55, Tokai 50 and Okinawa 15. Rice-growing regions, livestock belts and fruit-producing areas fill the top of the list — but Chiba and Shizuoka, both within easy reach of the Tokyo metropolitan area, sit at the same level, which is notable.
Source: MAFF, “The Current State of Nouhaku” (as of February 3, 2026; nouhaku area counts as of end of FY2024); compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
So what lodging actually exists in those prefectures? Within the scope MetroEngines Research covers, we tallied properties with confirmed operations by type. The table below isolates the types that most readily serve as nouhaku capacity — minshuku, pensions, farm inns, vacation rentals, cottages and lodges — plus ryokan.
| Prefecture | Nouhaku areas | Minshuku | Pension | Farm inn | Vacation rental | Cottage | Lodge | Ryokan | Subtotal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagano | 23 | 150 | 461 | 11 | 31 | 62 | 125 | 608 | 1,448 |
| Shizuoka | 21 | 169 | 202 | 0 | 46 | 14 | 7 | 524 | 962 |
| Niigata | 26 | 65 | 78 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 70 | 288 | 513 |
| Kagoshima | 23 | 112 | 20 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 5 | 94 | 273 |
| Chiba | 21 | 73 | 53 | 0 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 134 | 302 |
| Gifu | 22 | 36 | 24 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 281 | 378 |
| Kumamoto | 24 | 23 | 33 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 237 | 306 |
| Mie | 20 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 237 | 309 |
| Miyagi | 26 | 18 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 137 | 185 |
| Okayama | 19 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 68 | 108 |
Nouhaku area counts from MAFF (end of FY2024). Property counts from MetroEngines Research (properties with confirmed operations as of August 2026, N=4,784). Source: MAFF, “The Current State of Nouhaku” / MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
Nagano stands out with 150 minshuku, 461 pensions and 608 ryokan, totaling 1,448 properties across those seven types. Shizuoka follows with 962, Niigata 513 and Gifu 378. Properties classified specifically as “farm inns,” by contrast, number just 128 nationwide (343 rooms), and Nagano’s 11 is the only double-digit count among the leading prefectures. Most of nouhaku’s lodging function is carried not under the farm-inn label but within existing categories — minshuku, pensions, ryokan and vacation rentals.
Nationally, we count 1,829 minshuku (14,582 rooms), 1,911 pensions (15,265 rooms), 825 vacation rentals (2,205 rooms), 405 cottages (3,698 rooms), 397 lodges (5,077 rooms) and 128 farm inns (343 rooms) — 5,495 small-scale properties with 41,170 rooms in total. Ryokan add 7,753 properties and 179,897 rooms. This is not directly comparable with MAFF’s 5,742 lodging properties in nouhaku areas, because the populations differ (nouhaku areas also contain hotels, while properties not listed on OTAs fall outside our tally) — but it establishes the national scale of the small-scale lodging segment nouhaku rests on.
The capacity has slack — occupancy of 38.2% for ryokan and 29.6% for simple lodgings
Final full-year 2025 figures from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey put national occupancy at 61.6%. By property type, business hotels reached 75.3%, city hotels 74.1% and resort hotels 56.9%, against 38.2% for ryokan and 29.6% for simple lodgings. Many minshuku, pensions, vacation rentals and farm inns operate under a simple-lodging license, which means the property types serving as nouhaku capacity retain substantial room-night slack relative to urban hotels. We break down how demand composition differs across property types in City Hotels: 45.9% of Guest Nights Are Foreign — Ryokan +3.7%.
| Property type | Occupancy | Relationship to nouhaku |
|---|---|---|
| Business hotel | 75.3% | Mainly urban |
| City hotel | 74.1% | Mainly urban |
| All types | 61.6% | — |
| Resort hotel | 56.9% | Also located in nouhaku areas |
| Ryokan | 38.2% | Core nouhaku capacity |
| Simple lodging | 29.6% | Covers minshuku, pensions, vacation rentals and similar |
Source: Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (2025 full-year final figures, published July 6, 2026); compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
Against the FY2029 target of 12 million guest nights, the fact that existing properties hold this much unused capacity is an important premise. Rural lodging can accumulate operating nights without adding large new supply.
Harvest-season price bands — around ¥20,000 per room for minshuku and pensions, ¥50,000–70,000 for vacation rentals
For the September–November harvest window in 2026, we compiled listed prices by property type across the prefectures with the most nouhaku areas. All figures below are per-room rates at double occupancy (tax-included, average across all plans) — not per-person amounts.
| Prefecture | Minshuku | Pension | Ryokan | Vacation rental | Cottage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagano | ¥20,215〜20,909 n=76〜108 | ¥23,052〜23,263 n=229〜331 | ¥33,379〜34,748 n=459〜541 | ¥68,793〜69,732 n=246〜292 | ¥36,331〜37,243 n=80〜104 |
| Shizuoka | ¥19,725〜20,585 n=85〜139 | ¥25,211〜26,291 n=132〜174 | ¥44,961〜48,324 n=408〜483 | ¥51,018〜53,087 n=317〜366 | ¥43,855〜45,558 n=36〜48 |
| Niigata | ¥16,417〜17,043 n=40〜55 | ¥19,640〜20,299 n=25〜34 | ¥36,296〜37,306 n=207〜239 | ¥50,892〜56,981 n=26〜29 | Ref. only n=12〜13 |
| Chiba | ¥18,292〜19,997 n=37〜52 | ¥18,322〜19,632 n=24〜44 | ¥37,702〜40,276 n=97〜127 | ¥60,334〜64,927 n=251〜341 | ¥40,782〜42,862 n=48〜61 |
| Gifu | ¥19,857〜23,306 n=31〜41 | ¥25,487〜26,552 n=15〜19 | ¥36,624〜40,782 n=208〜244 | ¥40,047〜48,462 n=78〜89 | ¥30,772〜35,612 n=20〜27 |
| Kumamoto | ¥21,765〜22,546 n=17〜21 | ¥23,510〜24,071 n=28〜38 | ¥43,867〜46,334 n=204〜237 | ¥26,639〜27,053 n=80〜97 | ¥26,713〜27,359 n=18〜21 |
| Kagoshima | ¥12,769〜13,706 n=64〜80 | ¥17,552〜18,486 n=17 | ¥35,222〜37,282 n=77〜82 | ¥29,011〜31,976 n=129〜157 | ¥20,307〜24,870 n=37〜44 |
| Miyagi | ¥20,162〜20,239 n=18〜21 | Ref. only n=8〜11 | ¥35,010〜37,216 n=102〜115 | ¥46,217〜47,081 n=67〜73 | Ref. only n=10 |
Low–high range of monthly listed prices for September, October and November 2026. n is the range of properties with observed prices in each month. Cells with n<15 are marked “Ref. only” and show no figure. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
Minshuku range from ¥12,800–13,700 per room in Kagoshima to ¥19,900–23,300 in Gifu; pensions run from ¥17,600–18,500 in Kagoshima to ¥25,500–26,600 in Gifu. Dividing simply by two occupants gives roughly ¥6,400–13,300 per person, close to the ¥13,196 per guest night average lodging spend MAFF reports for nouhaku areas in FY2024. One caveat: MAFF’s figure is actual spending in nouhaku areas, whereas the listed prices here are averages of published rates, so the two rest on different bases.
Vacation rentals, by contrast, form a band around three times the minshuku and pension level — ¥68,800–69,700 per unit in Nagano and ¥60,300–64,900 in Chiba. Because vacation rentals and cottages are sold mainly by the whole unit, the price shown at double occupancy is effectively a per-unit rate. For groups and multi-generation parties staying in rural Japan, this type sets the ceiling on price. We dig into how far producing regions can push rates during harvest in Japan Wine Region Hotels 2026: Harvest ADR ¥10,136–¥19,644.
| Prefecture | Sep ADR | Oct ADR | Nov ADR | Properties in ADR calculation | Listed price (Sep) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gifu | ¥13,232 | ¥14,812 | ¥14,829 | 324〜371 | ¥28,523 |
| Nagano | ¥13,807 | ¥14,329 | ¥14,024 | 700〜794 | ¥29,334 |
| Shizuoka | ¥13,484 | ¥13,262 | ¥13,872 | 745〜847 | ¥33,235 |
| Kumamoto | ¥13,254 | ¥13,061 | ¥13,455 | 353〜392 | ¥25,881 |
| Mie | ¥12,638 | ¥12,445 | ¥12,752 | 307〜347 | ¥30,543 |
| Niigata | ¥12,056 | ¥12,168 | ¥12,129 | 357〜404 | ¥23,686 |
| Chiba | ¥12,016 | ¥11,906 | ¥12,157 | 365〜405 | ¥34,489 |
| Miyagi | ¥11,892 | ¥12,074 | ¥11,821 | 270〜288 | ¥25,897 |
| Okayama | ¥11,347 | ¥11,596 | ¥11,644 | 171〜184 | ¥22,155 |
| Kagoshima | ¥9,523 | ¥9,566 | ¥9,606 | 288〜306 | ¥17,898 |
ADR is the median estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent) across all property types. Listed price is the all-plan average (per room, double occupancy, tax-included) and rests on a different basis. September–November 2026 figures are estimates based on listing levels at the time of the survey. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
On a prefecture-level ADR (estimated settled rate) basis, harvest-season levels top out at ¥13,200–14,800 in Gifu and ¥13,800–14,300 in Nagano, while Kagoshima sits at ¥9,500–9,600. These figures include properties outside nouhaku, so they are not nouhaku-only rates — but they are worth holding as the market level in the prefectures where nouhaku areas cluster.
Harvest-season sell-through — at equal lead time, the October and November long weekends stand out
To see how much real demand builds during harvest season, comparing sell-through at an identical lead time works better than comparing monthly averages. Here we take six prefectures with many nouhaku areas, select five Saturday check-in dates, and line up occupancy (estimated, based on OTA listing inventory) at LT87 — 87 days before check-in — for each. The comparison set covers two off-peak dates, June 13 and July 11, and three harvest dates, September 12, October 10 and November 21. Note that in 2026 Sports Day falls on October 12 and Labor Thanksgiving Day on November 23, making both October 10 and November 21 the opening day of a three-day weekend.
Occupancy at LT87 for each check-in date (estimated, based on OTA listing inventory). Nagano covers 36,061–38,757 rooms across 1,173–1,366 observed properties; Niigata covers 20,834–25,529 rooms across 443–509 properties. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
In all six prefectures, the two three-day-weekend openers — October 10 and November 21 — rank near the top. Nagano moves from 64.7% on June 13 to 75.6% on October 10 (+10.9pt); Gifu from 66.1% to 81.0% (+14.9pt); Niigata from 81.7% to 87.6% (+5.9pt). Miyagi reaches high levels on both harvest dates, at 85.2% on September 12 and 85.6% on October 10. Kagoshima runs lower overall at 47–61%, but its highest of the five dates is November 21 at 60.9%.
Average listed prices at the same LT87 point rise during harvest as well. Nagano goes from ¥31,200 on June 13 to ¥35,100 on November 21, Shizuoka from ¥35,200 to ¥42,200, and Gifu from ¥33,300 to ¥37,100. Sell-through and price move in the same direction, which makes the harvest-season long weekends a window where rural areas can build both demand and rate.
| Prefecture | Jun 13 (off-peak) | Jul 11 (off-peak) | 9/12 | Oct 10 (3-day wknd) | Nov 21 (3-day wknd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagano | 64.7% ¥31,221 | — | 69.1% ¥30,806 | 75.6% ¥34,221 | 71.1% ¥35,117 |
| Niigata | 81.7% ¥27,949 | — | 74.6% ¥26,273 | 87.6% ¥33,705 | 71.5% ¥27,827 |
| Shizuoka | 66.8% ¥35,212 | 67.2% ¥37,362 | 66.4% ¥34,040 | 77.6% ¥41,831 | 72.3% ¥42,194 |
| Gifu | 66.1% ¥33,266 | 61.3% ¥31,618 | 69.8% ¥30,934 | 81.0% ¥38,126 | 76.3% ¥37,110 |
| Miyagi | 70.3% ¥29,140 | 68.7% ¥28,860 | 85.2% ¥34,292 | 85.6% ¥38,004 | 80.3% ¥35,498 |
| Kagoshima | 47.5% ¥23,504 | 49.2% ¥23,508 | 49.3% ¥21,035 | 55.5% ¥22,485 | 60.9% ¥25,336 |
Upper figure = occupancy at LT87 (estimated, based on OTA listing inventory); lower figure = average listed price at the same point (per room, double occupancy, tax-included). July 11 is omitted for Nagano and Niigata because observed properties at that point covered only around 20% of properties in each prefecture. Occupancy is an estimate based on how far inventory offered on OTAs has sold through and differs from a property’s true overall occupancy. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
The full lead-time curve is worth checking too. Tracking four Nagano dates from LT90 to the present, October 10 starts high — already 75.9% when observation begins — and reaches 82.8% by LT45. September 12 starts at 69.6% at LT90 and reaches 74.4% at LT45, while off-peak June 13 begins at 65.4% at LT90 and only reaches 74.1% after passing LT30. Harvest-season long weekends clearly start moving inventory early. That pattern has an autumn-specific counterpart: resort destinations fill earlier on long weekends while urban hotels fill earlier on weekdays, a reversal in booking lead time that shows up across the season.
Nagano, all property categories. LT (lead time) = days until check-in; moving right approaches the check-in date. Occupancy is an estimate based on OTA listing inventory. The base is 1,218–1,366 properties in Nagano (varying by date), counting only properties with an observed price on OTAs at each lead-time point. Observed property counts decline as the check-in date approaches. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
The pricing headroom left in small properties
So far we have confirmed that harvest season builds demand and lifts listed prices. What about by property type? To work from a consistent base of actual results, the chart below indexes monthly listed prices in 2025 to the annual average = 100 and plots four property types in Nagano.
Monthly listed prices for January–December 2025, indexed to the annual average = 100 (per room, double occupancy, tax-included, all-plan average). Observed properties: 89–136 minshuku, 259–353 pensions, 498–557 ryokan, 131–224 vacation rentals. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
Taking the gap between the highest and lowest month of the year, Nagano ryokan swing 21.0% (about ¥28,000 in March to about ¥33,800 in August) and vacation rentals 26.2% (about ¥56,700 in June to about ¥71,500 in August), while minshuku move just 6.8% (about ¥17,900 in March to about ¥19,100 in December) and pensions 11.2%. Shizuoka shows the same pattern — 7.5% for minshuku against 24.0% for ryokan and 47.5% for vacation rentals. In Niigata the gap narrows somewhat, at 11.6% for minshuku and 13.6% for pensions against 13.9% for ryokan, but vacation rentals swing widely at 67.9%.
| Prefecture | Minshuku | Pension | Ryokan | Vacation rental |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagano | +6.8% | +11.2% | +21.0% | +26.2% |
| Shizuoka | +7.5% | +20.4% | +24.0% | +47.5% |
| Niigata | +11.6% | +13.6% | +13.9% | +67.9% |
| Gifu | +22.1% | +9.0% | +19.7% | +29.8% |
Difference (%) between the highest and lowest month of monthly listed prices, January–December 2025. Niigata vacation rentals are reference-only, based on just 13–25 observed properties. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
Minshuku and pensions publish essentially flat rates year-round. That leaves room to build rate in periods where demand clearly forms, such as harvest season. Given that MAFF pairs its FY2029 targets — 12 million guest nights and ¥220.0 billion in revenue — it is natural to read both paths as intended: growing guest numbers, and raising the rate per guest night. The season-linked pricing that ryokan and vacation rentals already practice is a realistic revenue opportunity for small properties too.
MAFF’s performance survey adds another dimension: 62% of nouhaku areas support Japanese-language registration on online booking sites, and 56% have foreign-language capability in place. Wi-Fi has reached 72% and Western-style toilets 76%. As booking channels and multilingual support advance, inventory that is currently invisible becomes visible to the market. The path from an 8.6% inbound share toward 10% and beyond runs along the same line.
At the municipal level — 58–69 properties in Fuefuki, 27–32 in Obama
For the nouhaku areas MAFF presents as case studies, we checked lodging stock at the municipal level. At that granularity, however, observed property counts often fall into single digits: Yazu in Tottori, Taiki in Mie, Bibai in Hokkaido, Asuka in Nara and Mima in Tokushima all had fewer than 10 properties with observable prices, so we have withheld figures for them. The table below covers the six municipalities where 10 or more could be confirmed.
| Municipality | Total properties | Rooms | Main composition | Listed price (Sep–Nov) | Observed properties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuefuki, Yamanashi | 50 | 2,168 | 35 ryokan, 10 hotels | ¥37,514〜38,272 | 58〜69 |
| Nantan, Kyoto | 13 | 88 | 3 minshuku/farm inns, 2 guesthouses | ¥43,299〜48,199 | 24〜28 |
| Obama, Fukui | 21 | 314 | 9 ryokan, 8 minshuku/farm inns | ¥27,123〜30,059 | 27〜32 |
| Saku, Nagano | 18 | 1,021 | 7 hotels, 4 ryokan | ¥14,567〜15,707 | 18〜20 |
| Otawara, Tochigi | 6 | 146 | 3 ryokan, 2 hotels | ¥13,796〜17,079 | 12〜13 |
| Sabae, Fukui | 9 | 618 | 5 hotels, 3 ryokan | ¥13,883〜14,640 | 11 |
Total properties and rooms cover properties with confirmed operations within the scope MetroEngines Research tracks. Listed price is the low–high range of monthly values for September–November 2026 (per room, double occupancy, tax-included, all-plan average) and includes every property type in the municipality. Observed properties is the range of properties with an observed price in each month and does not match the property master count. Source: MAFF, “The Current State of Nouhaku” (case-study areas) / MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team
Fuefuki, home to Isawa Onsen, is large in scale with 35 ryokan and 2,168 rooms, and its listed prices are correspondingly high at ¥37,500–38,300. Nantan — which includes the Kayabuki-no-Sato thatched-roof village in Miyama — is the opposite: 13 properties and 88 rooms in total, centered on three minshuku and farm inns plus two guesthouses. Even so, its listed prices sit high at ¥43,300–48,200, a sign that whole-unit rentals and small-party accommodation are pulling the band upward. Obama has a balanced mix of 9 ryokan and 8 minshuku and similar properties, with prices at ¥27,100–30,100.
Even within the same “nouhaku area” label, municipalities built around onsen ryokan and those built around farm inns and old folk houses have entirely different capacity profiles. That difference, invisible in prefecture-level averages, is worth holding onto when treating nouhaku as a market.
Summary — where nouhaku stands, in numbers
To draw the threads together. First, nouhaku has reached a scale of 673 areas, 5,742 properties and 8.676 million guest nights (FY2024), passing ahead of schedule the 7 million guest nights the Basic Plan for the Promotion of a Tourism Nation set for FY2025. Against national guest nights of 661.11 million in 2025, that is a share in the low single-digit percentage points — around 1% — and the next markers are 12 million guest nights and ¥220.0 billion in revenue by FY2029.
Second, capacity is distributed unevenly. Niigata and Miyagi lead with 26 areas each, followed by Kumamoto 24, Nagano 23 and Kagoshima 23. In our data, those top ten prefectures hold 4,784 minshuku, pensions, vacation rentals, ryokan and similar properties, with Nagano alone accounting for 1,448. Nationally, 1,829 minshuku, 1,911 pensions and 825 vacation rentals, among others, carry nouhaku’s lodging function in practice.
Third, demand genuinely forms in the September–November harvest window. Compared at the same lead time (LT87), the October 10 and November 21 long weekends rank near the top in all six prefectures, with Nagano up 10.9pt and Gifu up 14.9pt against the off-peak baseline. Average listed prices rise at the same time, so demand and rate move in the same direction.
Fourth, pricing design differs by property type. Ryokan move rates across a 21.0% band within the year in Nagano and vacation rentals 26.2%, while minshuku vary by only 6.8% and pensions 11.2%. Building rate in periods where demand clearly forms is a realistic revenue opportunity — and one consistent with government targets that pair guest numbers with revenue. With ryokan occupancy at 38.2% and simple lodgings at 29.6%, nouhaku capacity retains headroom on both rooms and rate.
⚠ Note on ADR and listed prices for future dates: The ADR, listed prices and occupancy figures for September–November 2026 in this article are estimates based on sales inventory and prices published on OTAs and elsewhere as of the survey date (August 27, 2026). They shift as new plans are added and prices adjusted closer to check-in. Current levels will not necessarily be the levels realized.
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References and Sources
■ Government statistics and official documents
- Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, “The Current State of Nouhaku” (Rural Development Bureau, Urban-Rural Exchange Division, as of February 3, 2026) — nouhaku area counts, guest-night trend, targets, lodging property counts, reception-environment readiness
- Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, “FY2024 Performance Survey of Nouhaku Areas” (conducted October 2025) — included in the document above
- Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2025 full-year figures, final)” (published July 6, 2026) — 661.11 million guest nights, occupancy by property type
- Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey”
- Basic Plan for the Promotion of a Tourism Nation (cabinet decision, March 31, 2023) — FY2025 target of 7 million guest nights
- Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas (cabinet decision, April 11, 2025) — FY2029 targets of 12 million guest nights and ¥220.0 billion
- Nouhaku Promotion Action Plan (plan period FY2023–FY2025) — 10% target share for inbound travelers
■ Market data
- MetroEngines Research — property and room counts by type, monthly listed prices, estimated settled ADR, booking curves and occupancy (based on OTA listing inventory, estimated)
■ Data sources
MAFF, “The Current State of Nouhaku” (as of February 3, 2026; nouhaku area counts, guest nights, revenue and lodging property counts are FY2024 results); Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey,” 2025 full-year final figures (published July 6, 2026); and OTA listing inventory and price data collected by MetroEngines Research (property and room counts by type cover properties with confirmed operations; prices are 2025 January–December actuals plus listing levels for September–November 2026 as of the survey date; sell-through is listing inventory by lead time).
■ Calculation assumptions
Listed price is the all-plan average per room at double occupancy (tax-included); ADR is the median estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), derived by applying a property-type correction factor to the lowest published plan rate. Occupancy is an estimate based on how far inventory offered on OTAs has sold through. Properties per area (8.5) and annual guest nights per property (approx. 1,511) are simple divisions of FY2024 results. The path decomposition table is arithmetic organization based on the identity “total guest nights = nouhaku areas × annual guest nights per area,” and is not a forecast.
■ Limitations and caveats
MAFF and Japan Tourism Agency statistics use guest nights (one person, one night) as their unit, while the listed prices and ADR in this article are per room, so the two cannot be compared directly. Nouhaku results are compiled by fiscal year while the Japan Tourism Agency’s national figures are by calendar year, so the periods differ. Our prefecture- and municipality-level aggregates include properties outside nouhaku and are not nouhaku-only rates or occupancy. Cells with fewer than 15 observed properties are marked as reference-only and show no figure. Prices and occupancy for September–November 2026 are estimates based on listing inventory as of the survey date (August 27, 2026) and will change before check-in.