Lunar New Year (Chinese New Year) 2027 falls on Saturday, February 6. The holiday periods of four markets — mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea — overlap on the four days from February 6 to 9, and in Hokkaido and Nagano, at the height of the ski season, the inbound peak and the domestic peak arrive in the same week. Lining up prefecture-level data from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey for 2025 (when Lunar New Year fell at the end of January) and 2026 (when it fell in mid-February) shows that the line-up of prefectures where foreign guest nights grew in February changed substantially, driven by the position of the holidays and shifts in the market mix. This article first confirms three years of holiday calendars from primary sources, then reviews the movement in February prefectural statistics, the market mix in the first half of 2026, and the estimated settled ADR and number of listed properties for February 2027 in six prefectures, giving operators and DMOs the material to plan which market to capture in which week.

Lunar New Year 2027 Is February 6 — Four Markets’ Holidays Overlap Feb 6–9

First, let us align the key dates. Lunar New Year’s Day (the first day of the first lunar month) fell on Wednesday, January 29 in 2025 and Tuesday, February 17 in 2026, and falls on Saturday, February 6 in 2027 — moving from late January to mid-February and then to early February over three years. Based on government announcements, each market’s holidays are shown in the table below. China’s 2027 schedule had not been published as of this writing, since the General Office of the State Council usually issues its notice in early November; however, under the revised National Holidays and Commemorative Days regulations that took effect in 2025, the Spring Festival holiday is four statutory days starting from New Year’s Eve, which in 2027 falls on Friday, February 5. Taiwan’s Directorate-General of Personnel Administration has set seven days from Thursday, February 4 to Wednesday, February 10 in its 2027 calendar; Hong Kong’s gazette notice dated May 15, 2026 designates Saturday, February 6, Monday, February 8 and Tuesday, February 9; and South Korea has confirmed four days from Saturday, February 6 to Tuesday, February 9 (the Seollal holiday plus a substitute holiday) based on the Korea AeroSpace Administration’s 2027 lunar calendar. Korea’s Seollal (설날) falls on Sunday, February 7, one day later than in China, because the time of the new moon crosses midnight differently due to the time difference; this does not affect how the holidays overlap.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from notices of the General Office of China’s State Council, Taiwan’s Executive Yuan Directorate-General of Personnel Administration, the Hong Kong SAR Government Gazette, the Korea AeroSpace Administration’s 2027 Lunar Calendar, and others (see References)

The 2027 overlap differs in character from the past two years. In 2025, South Korea’s holiday ran Jan 25–30, China’s Jan 28–Feb 4 and Taiwan’s Jan 25–Feb 2, so the peak clustered in the last week of January and trailed into early February. In 2026, China and Taiwan had 9-day breaks from Feb 14–15 to around Feb 23, with South Korea’s 3-day holiday (Feb 16–18) falling inside them. In 2027, by contrast, even though China’s notice is not yet out, all four markets include Saturday, February 6 to Tuesday, February 9 in their holidays. In other words, the second week of February 2027 is “four days when Greater China and South Korea travel at the same time,” preceded by Taiwan (and China, around New Year’s Eve) arriving early on Feb 4–5. Overlaying Japan’s calendar, National Foundation Day on Thursday, February 11 falls in the latter half of the week, and at ski areas and snow resorts domestic weekend demand builds on Feb 6–7 and Feb 13–14. How occupancy builds in a week when overseas and Japanese holidays overlap one day apart is examined, using five prefectures with a high share of Taiwanese guests, in Double Ten 2026 x Japan’s Long Weekend: Okinawa 90.8% OCC on Oct 10.

February Statistics Move with Holiday Timing — The Prefectures That Grew Swapped Between 2025 and 2026

Using the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey data on foreign guest nights by prefecture, we compare February YoY changes in 2025 and 2026. Nationwide, February totaled 13,788,140 person-nights in 2025 (+16.8% YoY) and 14,037,770 in 2026 (+1.8%). January moved sharply in the opposite direction, from 15,235,390 person-nights in 2025 to 12,833,880 in 2026 (−15.8%). With Lunar New Year shifting from late January to mid-February, February 2026 should have enjoyed a tailwind from demand moving over from January, yet the national total rose only 1.8%. The backdrop is the shrinking Chinese market: Chinese guest nights in February fell 39.4% from 2.84 million to 1.72 million, nearly offsetting growth from Taiwan (+39.4%), South Korea (+24.6%) and Hong Kong (+9.7%).

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (foreign guest nights by prefecture; 2025 final figures, 2026 second preliminary figures)

By prefecture, the number with February above the prior year was 38 of 47 in 2025 and 37 in 2026 — nearly the same total, but a different line-up. The 10 prefectures whose February went from positive in 2025 to negative in 2026 were Hokkaido, Akita, Ishikawa, Yamanashi, Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi, Kyoto, Nara and Okayama, with large swings: Hokkaido from +43.2% to −7.3%, Aichi from +43.8% to −14.6%, and Shizuoka from +26.3% to −20.3%. These largely overlap with prefectures that had a high share of Chinese guests in February 2025 (Shizuoka 43.3%, Osaka 33.8%, Yamanashi 31.8%, Aichi 31.3%, Gifu 31.3%): even though Lunar New Year fell in February, the decline in Chinese guests won out. Conversely, the nine prefectures whose February went from negative in 2025 to positive in 2026 were Ibaraki, Gunma, Kanagawa, Shiga, Hiroshima, Kochi, Saga, Oita and Miyazaki, with prefectures in Kyushu (Saga, Oita, Miyazaki), Chugoku–Shikoku (Hiroshima, Kochi) and northern Kanto (Ibaraki, Gunma) standing out.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2024 and 2025 final figures, 2026 second preliminary figures; sampling design changed to a room-count basis from January 2026 data)

What matters here is that the assessment changes depending on whether January and February are viewed separately or combined. Hokkaido’s February alone was −7.3%, but January–February combined was even weaker at −13.1%, showing that the Lunar New Year shift was propping up February. Nagano was +12.5% for February alone and −2.3% for January–February, recovering in February what it lost in January. Fukuoka was roughly flat at +11.7% in February and −0.2% for the two months, while in Kyushu, with its many Korean guests, February far outweighed January’s decline: Kagoshima +68.5% in February and +27.6% for the two months, and Oita +22.2% and +13.2%. Given that the position of Lunar New Year can move single-month YoY figures by ±20 points, when reading market strength from monthly statistics it is practical either to compare years in which the holidays fall in the same month or to evaluate January and February combined.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (foreign guest nights by nationality; February 2025 covers facilities with 10+ employees, February 2026 covers facilities with 20+ rooms)

Market Mix in H1 2026 — Within an Overall −2.0%, South Korea and Taiwan Grew for Six Straight Months

According to estimates published by the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) on July 15, 2026, visitor arrivals to Japan in January–June 2026 totaled 21,084,800, down 2.0% YoY. By market, South Korea had 5,675,100 (+18.6%), Taiwan 3,972,200 (+20.9%), Hong Kong 1,298,500 (+2.2%) and China 2,058,200 (−56.4%). Growth from South Korea and Taiwan could not fully fill China’s decline, leaving the total slightly below the prior year, but on a monthly basis South Korea and Taiwan exceeded the prior year in all six months from January to June. Hong Kong grew +19.6% in February and +28.5% in June but fell below the prior year in some months, such as January (−17.9%) and April (−14.3%), making it the market most sensitive to the timing of Lunar New Year and Easter. China stayed below half of the prior-year level in five of the six months — e.g., −60.7% in January and −57.3% in June — the exception being February (−45.2%).

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from JNTO Visitor Arrivals monthly estimates (published February–July 2026)

Overlaying this market mix on each prefecture’s dependence on Lunar New Year shows that the read on which markets will come in February 2027 differs by prefecture. Among the 18 prefectures in the table, those where Greater China (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong) accounted for more than 50% in the February 2025 nationality breakdown (facilities with 10+ employees) were Miyagi (77.3%), Niigata (65.8%), Hyogo (64.9%), Shizuoka (61.2%), Gifu (57.6%), Yamanashi (56.6%), Aichi (56.4%), Ishikawa (54.8%) and Kumamoto (53.8%); of these, Taiwan is the main market for Miyagi and Niigata, and China for Shizuoka, Aichi and Hyogo. Likewise in the table, those with a South Korean share above 30% are the four Kyushu prefectures of Oita (54.0%), Kagoshima (51.5%), Fukuoka (44.8%) and Kumamoto (34.2%); outside the table, Miyazaki, Nagasaki, Saga, Ehime, Yamaguchi and Tokushima also exceed 30%, showing that Korean guests are concentrated in Kyushu and Chugoku–Shikoku. Hokkaido (Greater China 49.7%, South Korea 15.5%), Osaka (47.6%, 17.7%) and Okinawa (45.6%, 26.0%) are diversified, drawing both, while Tokyo (35.7%, 10.0%), Kyoto (40.9%, 7.3%) and Nagano (43.7%, 1.5%) have higher shares of Western and Australian guests, so the impact of Lunar New Year is relatively small.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, Reference Table 1 (February 2025 covers facilities with 10+ employees; February 2026 covers facilities with 20+ rooms. Populations differ, so YoY figures are for reference only). Type: prefectures with a Greater China share of 50% or more are classed as “Greater China,” those with a South Korean share of 30% or more as “Korea,” and all others as “Diversified”

Looking at movements by nationality in February 2026 by prefecture, even in prefectures where China fell by around 50% or more — Aichi (−70.8%), Shizuoka (−61.6%), Kumamoto (−60.3%), Osaka (−58.3%), Gifu (−58.2%) and Kyoto (−53.9%) — Taiwan grew sharply in places such as Osaka (+63.5%), Hyogo (+91.9%), Okinawa (+79.0%) and Kagoshima (+151.2%), and South Korea doubled in Yamanashi (+103.2%), Niigata (+104.5%), Gifu (+98.2%) and Kagoshima (+120.0%). Although these are reference figures based on different populations, the core of travelers who use the Lunar New Year holidays to visit Japan has shifted from China to Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong. In planning capacity for February 2027, it is closer to reality to set aside the assumption that “Lunar New Year = China” and design for Taiwan’s 7-day break, South Korea’s 4-day break and Hong Kong’s 4 days as separate demand streams. Where Taiwanese guests’ stays are concentrated by prefecture is covered in Where Taiwanese Visitors Stay in Japan: 54.6% Outside Major Metros.

Capacity for February 2027 — Estimated Settled ADR and Listed Properties in Six Prefectures

So how much of February 2027 is already priced in? Using MetroEngines Research data, we took the February 2027 listed price (all-plan average, tax-inclusive), estimated settled ADR and number of listed properties for Hokkaido, Nagano, Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Okinawa, and compared them with January and March. As of the survey (mid-October 2026), the number of properties listing prices for February 2027 on OTAs and elsewhere was 1,504 in Hokkaido, 1,240 in Nagano, 1,910 in Tokyo, 1,002 in Osaka, 1,793 in Kyoto and 1,669 in Okinawa; the properties covered by the estimated settled ADR calculation (verified categories: business, city, resort, ryokan and capsule) numbered 711, 579, 977, 572, 526 and 441 respectively. Because the month is four months out, the ADR sample is roughly 10–30% smaller than in an actual month (February 2026) — 20–30% smaller in Hokkaido and Nagano — and all figures below will shift as listings are added and prices adjusted.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and HotelBank Editorial Team (estimates based on listed rates as of mid-October 2026; estimated settled ADR is a tax-exclusive equivalent, area median)

Hokkaido’s estimated settled ADR for February 2027 is ¥15,300 — 1.18x January’s ¥12,900 and 1.30x March’s ¥11,700 — making it the only one of the six prefectures where February clearly exceeds the surrounding months. Hokkaido has historically shown a seasonal pattern of February above January, but the ratio was 1.16x in 2025 actuals and 1.03x in 2026 actuals. Reaching 1.18x already at the listing stage for 2027 suggests that February rates, when the peak ski season coincides with the four markets’ holidays, are already priced in at least at 2025 levels. By category, Hokkaido resort hotels list ¥21,700 for February (120 properties), above January’s ¥19,900 and March’s ¥16,500, and ryokan are also highest in February at ¥13,800 (185 properties). Business hotels are at ¥13,900 in February (336 properties), 1.20x January, indicating that expectations for February demand are also reflected in limited-service hotels in urban areas such as Sapporo.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and HotelBank Editorial Team (October 2026 onward are estimates based on listed rates at the time of the survey; all categories, estimated settled ADR, area median; number of properties varies by month from 672 to 960)

Nagano presents a different picture. Its estimated settled ADR for February 2027 is ¥14,300, slightly below January’s ¥14,600 and nearly level with March’s ¥14,000. In Nagano, January, which includes the New Year holidays, is close to the annual peak, and the seasonal pattern of February below January also appears in 2025 actuals (0.96x) and 2026 actuals (0.89x). The 2027 ratio of 0.98x puts February relatively higher than in the past two years; resort hotels list ¥20,200 for February (107 properties), short of January’s ¥21,900 but above March’s ¥19,000. Ryokan are at ¥16,000 (320 properties), with February the highest of January–March. Nagano’s foreign guest nights in February rose 12.5% in 2026, and by nationality it is one of the few prefectures where Greater China grew across the board — Taiwan +29.2% and China +6.5%. One could argue that the potential for the four-market Lunar New Year concentration to lift Nagano’s February is not yet fully reflected in prices.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and HotelBank Editorial Team (estimates based on listed rates as of mid-October 2026. Niseko and Nozawa Onsen have fewer than 10 properties in the ADR sample and are for reference only)

At the municipal level for ski resorts, Kutchan’s estimated settled ADR for February 2027 is ¥46,400 (17 properties) and Niseko’s is ¥34,400 (8 properties), both about twice March levels. In the Niseko area, the step between January–February high-season rates and March spring-skiing rates is already clearly listed, so rather than leaving room for a special premium only in the Lunar New Year holiday week, high prices are priced in across the high season as a whole. Hakuba is at ¥28,200 in February (26 properties), with little difference from January and March, and Yamanouchi is at ¥16,900 in February (88 properties), 1.14x March — the Nagano side has not set monthly steps as sharp as Niseko’s. Nozawa Onsen has only 9 properties in the sample and is for reference only, but its February listing is below both January and March. For the “total cost per ski day” combining lodging rates in these ski areas with lift tickets, see also Lift Ticket + Ski Lodging 2026-27: ¥14,800 Nozawa to ¥70,800 Rusutsu.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and HotelBank Editorial Team (estimates based on listed rates as of mid-October 2026; estimated settled ADR, area median, tax-exclusive equivalent)

In urban areas, Tokyo’s February 2027 is ¥15,400, 1.13x January but short of March’s ¥18,600. Kyoto is ¥13,600 in February, nearly the same as January, with March at ¥22,800 — a step driven by pre-cherry-blossom demand. Osaka is ¥10,400 in February (1.03x January) and Okinawa ¥13,200 (1.18x January). For Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto, spring demand from March onward is the main event, and February is the trough of the year. The four-market Lunar New Year concentration is naturally positioned as demand that fills this February trough in urban areas, and should be considered separately from a structure like Hokkaido’s, where February itself is the peak.

For reference, comparing February 2025 and February 2026 room occupancy rates in the Japan Tourism Agency statistics, the all-facility rate fell in Hokkaido from 68.0% to 65.0%, Osaka from 76.2% to 70.1% and Okinawa from 62.1% to 59.7%, while it rose in Nagano from 41.8% to 44.1%, Tokyo from 75.4% to 76.8% and Kyoto from 56.1% to 59.1%. Hokkaido resort hotels were nearly flat, from 67.9% to 67.5%, so even with Lunar New Year falling in February, the occupancy uplift was limited. The 2026 figures include the change in sampling design and so are not a strict comparison, but the pattern of Taiwan and South Korea compensating for China’s decline also appears in occupancy.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, room occupancy rates (2025 final figures, 2026 second preliminary figures)

Which Market to Capture in Which Week — Planning for February 2027

To sum up, February 2027 can be distilled into four points: the four markets converge on Feb 6–9; China’s notice is not yet published, but its holiday will spread around New Year’s Eve on Feb 5; the core of Lunar New Year demand has shifted to Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong; and Hokkaido’s February rates are already priced high, while Nagano and urban areas still have room. Breaking this down by week, the plan for operators and DMOs looks like this.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from government holiday announcements, the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey and MetroEngines Research

Market priorities should vary by each prefecture’s type of Lunar New Year dependence. For the Korea-type Kyushu prefectures, the 2027 Seollal holiday is four days — longer than 2026’s three — and starts on a Saturday, making pre-holiday stays more likely. In prefectures such as Yamanashi, Niigata and Gifu, where Korean guests doubled in February 2026, the Seollal dates overlap completely with Greater China’s, so bookings from Taiwan and Hong Kong and from South Korea may compete for the same dates, and early sales allocation will determine success. Greater China-type Miyagi, Niigata, Hyogo and Shizuoka should build around Taiwan’s 7-day break (Feb 4–10) and adjust latter-half inventory once China’s notice is out. The diversified prefectures of Hokkaido, Osaka and Okinawa are where demand on Feb 6–9 will be thickest due to the four-market overlap, and domestic weekend demand coincides as well, so completing early sales to domestic guests during January is a prerequisite for protecting rates in the holiday week.

From a DMO’s perspective, the fact that February 2026 statistics look “flat year-on-year despite Lunar New Year falling in February” is itself a signal of a change in the market mix. A straightforward plan would be to reorganize February promotional slots built on the assumption of Chinese demand to match the holiday schedules of Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong, and in 2027 to concentrate them on the six days from Feb 4 to 9. When measuring results with monthly statistics, 2027 is an unusual year in which February can be compared with February 2026 as a month containing Lunar New Year, and January can be compared between months without Lunar New Year (January 2026 vs. January 2027). Establishing baselines in a year when holiday positions align will also make evaluation easier when Lunar New Year returns to January in 2028 (January 26).

Summary

Lunar New Year 2027 falls on Saturday, February 6. Taiwan’s 7-day break (Feb 4–10), Hong Kong’s holidays (Feb 6, 8 and 9) and South Korea’s 4-day break (Feb 6–9) are confirmed, and China’s holiday will also start from New Year’s Eve on Feb 5. In the Japan Tourism Agency statistics, February YoY changes in foreign guest nights moved by ±20 points or more by prefecture between 2025, when Lunar New Year fell at the end of January, and 2026, when it fell in mid-February: prefectures with high Chinese shares such as Hokkaido, Aichi and Shizuoka turned negative, while prefectures with high Korean and Taiwanese shares in areas such as Kyushu and Tohoku turned positive. In H1 2026, within total visitor arrivals of 21.08 million (−2.0%), South Korea and Taiwan grew for six straight months, and the main drivers of Lunar New Year demand have shifted from China to Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong. Estimated settled ADR for February 2027 is already priced at ¥15,300 in Hokkaido — 1.18x January and 1.30x March — while Nagano, at ¥14,300, is level with the surrounding months, and in urban areas spring demand from March onward is the main event, with February a trough. For operators and DMOs, February 2027 is a year in which the four markets and domestic weekend guests overlap on the four days of Feb 6–9; an effective plan is to set market priorities by prefecture dependence type and revisit latter-half inventory allocation once China’s notice is out in November or later.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. When is Lunar New Year 2027? Has China’s holiday been decided?
A. Lunar New Year’s Day 2027 (the first day of the first lunar month) is Saturday, February 6. China’s General Office of the State Council usually announces the following year’s holidays in early November, so they had not been published as of this writing (October 2026). Under the revised regulations that took effect in 2025, the Spring Festival holiday is four statutory days starting from New Year’s Eve, which in 2027 falls on Friday, February 5. Taiwan’s seven days (Feb 4–10), Hong Kong’s Feb 6, 8 and 9, and South Korea’s four days (Feb 6–9) have already been announced.

Q. Why didn’t foreign overnight stays grow in February 2026, even though Lunar New Year fell in that month?
A. In the Japan Tourism Agency statistics, foreign guest nights in February 2026 rose just 1.8% YoY nationwide. There was a tailwind from Lunar New Year shifting from late January to mid-February, but Chinese guest nights fell sharply (−39.4%), nearly offsetting increases from Taiwan (+39.4%), South Korea (+24.6%) and Hong Kong (+9.7%). The higher a prefecture’s share of Chinese guests, the more likely its February turned negative.

Q. Have Hokkaido prices for February 2027 already risen?
A. Based on estimated settled ADR from listed rates as of mid-October 2026, Hokkaido’s February 2027 is ¥15,300, 1.18x January and 1.30x March. A seasonal gap similar to the February ÷ January ratio in 2025 actuals (1.16x) is already priced in at the listing stage. Listed prices for future months will change with sales conditions, so please treat these as current reference values.