HotelBank Editorial Team compiled the estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent) for city hotels and business hotels in Kyoto Prefecture as of November 4, 2026, and set it against the finalized figures for the same month a year earlier. September 2026 was still on the downward track that began in June: city hotels came in at ¥20,179 (N=61), down 14.6% from ¥23,624 (N=58) a year earlier, and business hotels at ¥11,701 (N=327), down 2.4% from ¥11,992 (N=319). October, finalized in early November, broke that run. City hotels reached ¥32,868 (N=63), up 12.4% YoY, and business hotels ¥19,704 (N=326), up 9.1%, the first month above the prior year in five months. The notable point of this release is that both categories turned at the same time. Business hotels had already narrowed their decline from −15.6% in August to −2.4% in September, but city hotels had posted double-digit declines through September. This article reads the June–October finalized figures by month and by ward, overlays the current November estimate and booking curves for the autumn foliage season, and sets out what to check when pricing the peak month.

Coverage: Kyoto Prefecture city hotels N=55–64 properties and business hotels N=312–329 properties (varies by month; N= is shown with each figure). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent), and occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of: November 4, 2026.

June–October Finalized Figures — October Wiped Out Four Months of YoY Declines at Once

First, we track the YoY change month by month between finalized months. City hotels were ¥17,738 in June (N=57, −14.6% YoY), ¥17,420 in July (N=58, −16.8%), ¥19,662 in August (N=59, −10.2%) and ¥20,179 in September (N=61, −14.6%), staying 10–20% below the prior year throughout the summer. Business hotels widened their decline from −9.8% in June (¥9,616, N=324) to −13.0% in July and −15.6% in August, then recovered to ¥11,701 (N=327, −2.4%) in September. That was the picture visible when this theme was set. The month-by-month breakdown of June, when both categories turned negative YoY together, is covered in Why Kyoto ADR Broke in Early Summer 2026.

The October finalized figures, however, point the other way for both categories. City hotels reached ¥32,868 (N=63), 12.4% above ¥29,248 (N=58) in October last year, and business hotels reached ¥19,704 (N=326), 9.1% above last year’s ¥18,068 (N=319). Last year October was 1.24 times September for city hotels and 1.51 times for business hotels; this year the multiples were 1.63 and 1.68, a larger autumn step-up. This reads as prices given up in the summer being recovered in the autumn demand season. No single cause can be identified, but the October finalized figures at least rule out the view that Kyoto rates are in a structural decline.

Table 1: Estimated settled ADR for city and business hotels in Kyoto Prefecture (tax-excluded equivalent, finalized). YoY compares finalized figures with finalized figures.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Overlaying the two years, as the two charts below show, the 2026 line runs almost on top of the prior year from January to May, sinks below it from June to September, and breaks above it in October. Spring peaks were roughly in line with last year: April city hotels were ¥29,986 (N=58) in 2026 against ¥32,625 (N=57) in 2025, and business hotels ¥20,308 (N=328) against ¥20,038 (N=318). This year’s distinguishing features are therefore both the deeper spring–summer trough and the higher autumn peak.

Figure 1: Estimated settled ADR for Kyoto Prefecture city hotels (tax-excluded equivalent), year-over-year overlay. November 2026 onward (dashed) is an estimate based on current sales and must wait for month-end finalization. N=55–64 properties.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Figure 2: Estimated settled ADR for Kyoto Prefecture business hotels (tax-excluded equivalent), year-over-year overlay. November 2026 onward (dashed) is a current estimate. N=312–329 properties.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

September and October by Ward — Where the Declines Concentrated and Where Rates Turned Up First

The prefecture-wide figure is, however, only an average of how each ward of Kyoto City moved. Restricting to wards and cities with at least five properties and comparing September and October YoY, city hotels in Shimogyo Ward (N=22) swung from −13.6% in September to +11.6% in October, Nakagyo Ward (N=9) from +0.6% to +33.7%, and Higashiyama Ward (N=7) was above the prior year in both months at +10.5% in September and +7.3% in October. September’s decline was concentrated in Shimogyo Ward, which includes the Kyoto Station area, while Higashiyama Ward held last year’s level through the summer.

Business hotels show a similar pattern. Shimogyo Ward, with the most properties (N=117), was −6.2% in September and +9.4% in October; Nakagyo Ward (N=82) −3.3% and +8.9%; and Minami Ward (N=50) −13.0% and +7.3%. The wards with the largest September declines saw comparatively modest October rebounds. By contrast, Higashiyama Ward (N=23) was +7.9% in September and +33.5% in October, and Sakyo Ward (N=6) +1.1% and +19.5%: wards close to sightseeing areas posted bigger autumn gains. In the north of the prefecture, Maizuru City (N=13) and Fukuchiyama City (N=7) ran at +9% to +17% in both September and October, but at price levels in the ¥6,000–7,000 range they move in a separate market from Kyoto City.

Table 2: Estimated settled ADR by ward/city (tax-excluded equivalent, finalized). Only wards and cities with N=5 or more properties in both 2025 and 2026 are shown. In wards with small N, individual properties can swing the figure, so read them with a margin.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

To sum up, the June–September YoY decline did not occur evenly across the prefecture. It was deep in wards with many limited-service hotels around the station and shallow in sightseeing-oriented wards such as Higashiyama and Sakyo. The October rebound was also led by the sightseeing-oriented wards. The same headline, “Kyoto −14.6%,” means different things depending on which group a property’s location is closer to.

November Current Estimate and Booking Curves — The Foliage Season Is Already Selling at High Levels

Behind this is autumn foliage demand. November estimated settled ADR is ¥35,114 for city hotels (N=64) and ¥24,341 for business hotels (N=321). Both are estimates based on current sales and will move as the month’s sales progress. For reference, last November’s finalized figures were ¥31,958 for city hotels (N=58) and ¥21,610 for business hotels (N=314), but a current estimate cannot be compared directly with a finalized figure, so whether November beats last year must wait for month-end finalization. At a minimum, the current estimate shows sales progressing in the same band as November 2025, the peak of the second half of that year (city ¥31,958, business ¥21,610).

Table 3 and the booking curve in Figure 3 look at November by stay date. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) runs from 45 days before the stay date up to the latest observation (November 3), using fixed cohorts of 37 properties / 5,576 rooms for city hotels and 195–196 properties / 19,127–19,191 rooms for business hotels. On Saturday, November 21, the first day of the 3-day weekend, city hotels were at 95.4% 45 days out, 97.6% 30 days out and 99.0% at the latest observation (18 days out), essentially full throughout. Business hotels went from 93.2% (45 days out) to 97.9% (30 days out) to 99.5% at the latest observation, so for this date the question is how to sell the remaining rooms rather than how much room there is to sell.

The contrast is Monday, November 23 (national holiday), the last day of the 3-day weekend. City hotels went from 82.9% (45 days out) to 84.5% (30 days out) to 86.2% at the latest observation (20 days out), and business hotels from 76.6% to 82.2% to 83.8%, leaving a gap of 13–16 points between the first and last days of the same holiday weekend. On Wednesday, November 18, a weekday, city hotels went 84.8% → 87.7% → 89.7% and business hotels 79.3% → 86.6% → 90.9%, while the following Wednesday, November 25, went 90.0% → 91.9% → 93.3% for city and 85.6% → 91.3% → 93.3% for business hotels: weekdays in the later half of the month, closer to peak foliage, are progressing faster than those in the first half. Weathernews’ third foliage forecast, released October 30, puts peak viewing in Arashiyama around November 23, and the strength of late-month weekdays appears consistent with that forecast. The same 3-day weekend curve narrowed to Shimogyo Ward around Kyoto Station is tracked by stay date in Kyoto Station Business Hotels, Nov 3-Day Weekend.

Table 3: Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for key stay dates in November 2026. City hotels 37 properties / 5,576 rooms; business hotels 195–196 properties / 19,127–19,191 rooms. Latest = observed November 3 (days remaining until the stay date shown).

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Figure 3: Booking curves for Kyoto Prefecture business hotels (estimated OCC based on OTA-listed inventory, from 45 days before the stay date to the latest observation). 195–196 properties / 19,127–19,191 rooms. The right end of each line is its latest observation.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Note also that finalized October estimated OCC averaged 92.3% for the month for city hotels (37 properties / 5,084 rooms, as of October 1) and 93.9% for business hotels (197 properties / 19,421 rooms), reaching 99.2% and 99.7% respectively on Saturday, October 10, the first day of that month’s 3-day weekend. It is worth noting that October’s ADR rebound was not rate bought at the expense of occupancy; rates rose while occupancy stayed high.

For Revenue Managers at Kyoto City and Business Hotels — Implications and Action Plan

Table 4: Action plan. All items are guidelines to be considered after checking market aggregates against your own results; no outcome is guaranteed.

Summary — Read It on Three Axes: Ward, Month and Position Within the Holiday Weekend

Kyoto Prefecture’s estimated settled ADR ran 10–20% below the prior year for several months from June to September 2026, then turned in the October finalized figures to +12.4% for city hotels (¥32,868, N=63) and +9.1% for business hotels (¥19,704, N=326). The yardsticks for looking back over this half-year come down to three. First, ward: in the same month, Shimogyo and Minami wards versus Higashiyama and Sakyo wards differed even in the sign of their YoY change. Second, month: both the summer trough and the autumn peak were larger than last year, widening the annual price range. Third, position within the holiday weekend: with estimated OCC 13–16 points apart between the first and last days, as on November 21 and 23, pricing a holiday weekend as a single block is too coarse. Where the current November estimate (city ¥35,114, business ¥24,341) lands at month-end will be decided by the sum of each property’s pricing with these three points in mind.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. What caused September estimated settled ADR to fall below the prior year?
A. The data in this article alone cannot pin it to a single cause. By ward, the decline was concentrated in Shimogyo and Minami wards while Higashiyama Ward was above the prior year, so reading it through location-specific supply and demand is more useful in practice than talking about the prefecture-wide average.

Q. Can November’s ¥35,114 be said to have beaten last year’s ¥31,958?
A. No. The November value is an estimate based on current sales, while last November is a finalized figure. Because the bases differ, the YoY judgment must wait for November to be finalized.

Q. Does estimated OCC mean the same as my property’s occupancy rate?
A. No. Estimated OCC is based on OTA-listed inventory and counts unlisted rooms as sold, so it runs higher than actual room occupancy. Use it as an indicator of the shape of market booking progress.

About the Data

References and Sources