The three-day weekend from Saturday, November 21 to Monday, November 23, 2026 (Labor Thanksgiving Day) will be the last long weekend of autumn, and it arrives in a year when the foliage is expected to peak slightly late: Weathernews’ first forecast puts peak colors in Kyoto’s Arashiyama around November 24. How that shift in peak timing moves ryokan bookings was first mapped on a September 25 snapshot, before the night of November 21 reached LT45, in Japan Fall Foliage 2026: Nagano 9 Days Late, Ryokan Bookings Checked, which looked at five prefectures on an occupancy basis (OTA-listed inventory, estimated). This article is its follow-up, switching the metric to the remaining-room rate. Remaining-room data from major booking sites compiled by MetroEngines Research as of October 9 show that Kyoto ryokan (113 properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs) have reached a median three-night remaining-room rate of 18.2%, while Nagano ryokan (306 properties) stand at 32.0% and Tochigi (142 properties) at 28.0%: with 43 days still to go before the stay dates, booking progress already differs by market. This article breaks five prefectures — Kyoto, Nagano and Tochigi, plus Gifu (Takayama) and Kanagawa (Hakone) for comparison — down by property type (ryokan, resort, city and business hotels), and sets them alongside the October three-day weekend (Oct 10-12) and the Oct 31-Nov 3 stretch that includes Culture Day, to show where this weekend sits among the autumn holidays.
- — Kyoto ryokan have an 18.2% remaining-room rate (property median, N=113, as of October 9, 2026). They are followed by Kanagawa at 20.8%, Gifu 25.4%, Tochigi 28.0% and Nagano 32.0%.
- — All five prefectures fill from the first night. The night of 11/23 (Mon, holiday) has the most rooms left: 43.9% at Kyoto ryokan and 52.3% in Nagano (property average).
- — Kyoto’s November weekend is ahead of Culture Day. At 43 days before the stay, its remaining-room rate is lower than Culture Day’s (27.3%) at 22 days out.
- — Listed prices are +52.6% in Kyoto and +42.7% in Kanagawa (vs. the regular weekend night of 11/14, all property types, at T-45). Nagano, Gifu and Tochigi are at -1.4% to +7.8%, in line with a normal weekend.
- — In the October long weekend, 20-37% of sell-outs came in the final week. Segments with more than 40% of rooms left, such as Tochigi business hotels (42.9%), have the most room to capture demand.
Metric Definitions Used in This Article
- Remaining-room rate: Rooms on sale on major booking sites as a share of each property’s total rooms (room basis). The core metric in this article uses only properties with a track record of listing at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs, and is shown as the median and mean of property-level remaining-room rates. Ratios based on the number of rate plans are never used.
- LT (lead time): Days until check-in. LT0 = the day of arrival. This article’s snapshot is October 9, 2026, so the night of November 21 is LT43.
- Zero rooms observed: Remaining rooms on major booking sites were observed at 0 for that stay date. Properties showing zero rooms from 45 or more days before the stay include observations made while their OTA allocation was still small, so this article does not call them “sold out” and instead says “zero rooms observed.”
- Listed price: Rate per room for two guests sharing one room (tax included). The listed price on a booking curve is the average of the inventory still on sale at that point.
- ADR (average daily rate): An estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying property-type correction factors to the lowest rate plan each property publishes on OTAs (two guests per room, per-room rate, tax included). Checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent three months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual achieved rates and accounting figures. Area-level ADR is the median across the properties covered.
- Data source: MetroEngines Research (tracks about 168,000 properties in Japan, of which about 27,000 with confirmed activity on major booking sites are analyzed)
How the sample is defined — counting only properties with at least 30% of rooms on OTAs
When reading holiday booking progress through remaining rooms, the first thing to fix is the sample. A property that lists only 10-20% of its rooms on major booking sites looks like it has zero rooms left as soon as that small allocation fills, so averaging remaining-room rates by property makes the market look “full” earlier than it really is. This article analyzes only properties that listed at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs during the observation period. Across the five prefectures (all property types, including minshuku, vacation rentals and other categories), 4,145 properties have remaining-room observations for the nights of 11/21-23, and 2,730 of them, with 78,714 rooms, meet the 30% allocation condition. The breakdown by type is shown in the table below. Segments with single-digit counts, such as Kyoto resorts (4 properties) and Gifu city hotels (1 property), are listed in the table but left out of the comparisons in the text.
| Prefecture | Type | Registered properties | With observations | OTA allocation ≥30% (analyzed) | Rooms analyzed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | Ryokan | 473 | 173 | 113 | 1,714 |
| Resort | 27 | 11 | 4 | 246 | |
| City | 93 | 56 | 15 | 1,538 | |
| Business | 771 | 295 | 120 | 11,372 | |
| All types | — | 1,099 | 639 | 18,565 | |
| Nagano | Ryokan | 1,392 | 428 | 306 | 5,966 |
| Resort | 325 | 106 | 54 | 2,446 | |
| City | 39 | 16 | 6 | 569 | |
| Business | 561 | 150 | 84 | 7,407 | |
| All types | — | 1,310 | 893 | 20,489 | |
| Tochigi | Ryokan | 458 | 184 | 142 | 4,189 |
| Resort | 80 | 39 | 26 | 1,135 | |
| City | 19 | 14 | 5 | 627 | |
| Business | 262 | 120 | 67 | 5,334 | |
| All types | — | 560 | 427 | 10,517 | |
| Gifu | Ryokan | 541 | 202 | 145 | 2,604 |
| Resort | 22 | 13 | 7 | 626 | |
| City | 14 | 11 | 1 | 43 | |
| Business | 253 | 107 | 56 | 4,687 | |
| All types | — | 479 | 331 | 8,783 | |
| Kanagawa | Ryokan | 611 | 242 | 169 | 3,313 |
| Resort | 99 | 48 | 27 | 1,433 | |
| City | 56 | 39 | 13 | 1,644 | |
| Business | 422 | 196 | 99 | 12,225 | |
| All types | — | 697 | 440 | 20,360 |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (as of October 9, 2026. Kanagawa and Gifu are prefecture-wide totals and include areas outside Hakone and Takayama. “Registered properties” is the sum of registered properties counted by municipality within each prefecture; “With observations” means properties with remaining-room observations for the nights of 11/21-23; “OTA allocation ≥30%” is this article’s analysis sample. “All types” includes minshuku, vacation rentals, pensions and other categories; the all-types registered count is omitted.)
Three caveats apply. First, at this stage, 43 days before the stay, false positives remain: properties that deliberately keep their OTA allocation small can appear to have zero rooms left. The 30% condition removes most of them, but not all. Second, the last observation date for remaining rooms differs by property, and the share of properties observed within the most recent seven days ranges from 73% to 91% by prefecture. The rest may still carry values observed in September or earlier. Third, the October three-day weekend was only one to three days away at the time of writing, so its figures are close to final. They are not on the same footing as the LT43 snapshot of the November weekend, so a same-LT comparison is made separately later in the article using booking-curve metrics.
Progress as of October 9 — Kyoto ryokan at 18% rooms left, Tochigi business hotels at 43%
Start with the overall picture by property type. Ryokan remaining-room rates (three-night average, property median) progress in this order: Kyoto 18.2%, Kanagawa 20.8%, Gifu 25.4%, Tochigi 28.0% and Nagano 32.0%. The share of properties with zero rooms observed on at least one of the three nights reaches 76% (86 of 113) for Kyoto ryokan and 70% in Kanagawa, but only 51% in Nagano and 52% in Tochigi. Six weeks before the stay, Saturday inventory at ryokan in Kyoto and Hakone already looks quite thin.
Business hotels, on the other hand, split clearly by prefecture. Kyoto’s 120 business hotels have a median remaining-room rate of 14.8%, further along than its ryokan, showing that in foliage season Kyoto’s limited-service hotels also absorb leisure demand. By contrast, Tochigi’s 67 business hotels have a median of 42.9%, and only 25% have shown zero rooms. Ryokan in Nikko and Nasu fill first, while limited-service hotels around Utsunomiya keep room to capture demand right up to the weekend. Among resorts, Nagano (54 properties), Tochigi (26) and Kanagawa (27) have samples large enough to compare, with medians of 34.3%, 27.0% and 25.7%. In Nagano and Kanagawa, resorts have more rooms left than ryokan (32.0% and 20.8%), while in Tochigi the two are at roughly the same level as ryokan (28.0%). Resorts in Nagano and Kanagawa start booking later than ryokan, making them the segment with the most room to move over the remaining six weeks.
| Prefecture | Type | N | Remaining-room rate, median | Remaining-room rate, mean | Zero rooms observed on ≥1 of 3 nights | Zero rooms on all 3 nights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | Ryokan | 113 | 18.2% | 23.5% | 86 (76%) | 29 |
| Resort | 4 | 46.9% | 50.4% | 1 (25%) | 1 | |
| City | 15 | 12.3% | 14.6% | 9 (60%) | 2 | |
| Business | 120 | 14.8% | 21.4% | 76 (63%) | 14 | |
| Nagano | Ryokan | 306 | 32.0% | 35.1% | 155 (51%) | 18 |
| Resort | 54 | 34.3% | 40.4% | 21 (39%) | 3 | |
| City | 6 | 20.1% | 19.5% | 5 (83%) | 0 | |
| Business | 84 | 30.0% | 32.9% | 30 (36%) | 2 | |
| Tochigi | Ryokan | 142 | 28.0% | 32.7% | 74 (52%) | 9 |
| Resort | 26 | 27.0% | 40.9% | 9 (35%) | 1 | |
| City | 5 | 22.6% | 33.2% | 2 (40%) | 0 | |
| Business | 67 | 42.9% | 50.3% | 17 (25%) | 1 | |
| Gifu | Ryokan | 145 | 25.4% | 31.7% | 89 (61%) | 22 |
| Resort | 7 | 47.4% | 52.1% | 1 (14%) | 1 | |
| City | 1 | 10.9% | 10.9% | 1 (100%) | 0 | |
| Business | 56 | 29.8% | 36.1% | 36 (64%) | 2 | |
| Kanagawa | Ryokan | 169 | 20.8% | 25.6% | 118 (70%) | 26 |
| Resort | 27 | 25.7% | 30.4% | 13 (48%) | 0 | |
| City | 13 | 17.5% | 18.6% | 10 (77%) | 1 | |
| Business | 99 | 20.8% | 27.0% | 79 (80%) | 3 |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (as of October 9, 2026, three-night average for 11/21-23. Only properties whose OTA allocation is at least 30% of total rooms. “Zero rooms” includes observations from 45 or more days before the stay.)
Which of the three nights fills first — first-night-led everywhere, with a two-step Saturday-Sunday pattern only in Kyoto
Does a three-day weekend fill from the first night (Saturday) or from the middle night (Sunday)? Breaking remaining-room rates down by night shows that in all five prefectures, November 21 (Sat) is furthest along and November 23 (Mon, holiday) has the most rooms left: a “first-night-led” pattern. Because the day after the holiday, the 24th (Tue), is a weekday, Monday-night demand behaves much like a normal Sunday night. At Kyoto ryokan, the remaining-room rate (property average) is 23.0% for Saturday, 26.4% for Sunday and 43.9% for Monday: the Saturday-Sunday gap is small, and the gap opens sharply on Monday. The share of properties with zero rooms on the October 9 snapshot is also 24% for Saturday, 34% for Sunday and 6% for Monday, so Kyoto shows a “two-step Saturday-Sunday” pattern, with multi-night demand concentrated in the two weekend nights.
Kanagawa ryokan are at 19.0% for Saturday, 27.3% for Sunday and 46.9% for Monday, heavily skewed toward Saturday. Hakone is an overnight trip from the Tokyo area, and guests who stay one night on Saturday and go home book first. Nagano ryokan are at 34.3%, 41.3% and 52.3%: Saturday and Sunday are 14-15 points higher than Kanagawa, but the Monday gap narrows to about 5 points. Business hotels are furthest along on Saturday in every prefecture, and outside Kyoto, 30-70% of rooms remain for Sunday and Monday nights, so Sunday and Monday are where there is room to adjust the price gap against a normal weekend.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (ryokan, property-average remaining-room rate, as of October 9. N = Saturday 55, 220, 104, 96, 123 / Sunday 70, 246, 108, 109, 120 / Monday 99, 263, 131, 115, 144 properties, for Kyoto, Nagano, Tochigi, Gifu and Kanagawa respectively)
| Prefecture | Type | 11/21 (Sat) | 11/22 (Sun) | 11/23 (Mon, holiday) | Share of properties with zero rooms at snapshot Sat / Sun / Mon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | Ryokan | 23.0% (N=55) | 26.4% (N=70) | 43.9% (N=99) | 24% / 34% / 6% |
| Resort | 42.6% (N=4) | 44.2% (N=4) | 64.5% (N=4) | 0% / 0% / 0% | |
| Business | 17.1% (N=69) | 25.7% (N=90) | 37.1% (N=104) | 36% / 10% / 8% | |
| Nagano | Ryokan | 34.3% (N=220) | 41.3% (N=246) | 52.3% (N=263) | 18% / 10% / 6% |
| Resort | 37.1% (N=43) | 47.3% (N=40) | 57.6% (N=48) | 19% / 8% / 6% | |
| Business | 28.3% (N=65) | 38.6% (N=69) | 51.1% (N=69) | 6% / 3% / 1% | |
| Tochigi | Ryokan | 26.9% (N=104) | 36.2% (N=108) | 51.4% (N=131) | 23% / 11% / 3% |
| Resort | 33.7% (N=19) | 45.2% (N=23) | 56.6% (N=24) | 11% / 9% / 4% | |
| Business | 50.2% (N=58) | 58.6% (N=52) | 67.6% (N=58) | 2% / 6% / 0% | |
| Gifu | Ryokan | 29.6% (N=96) | 38.5% (N=109) | 53.8% (N=115) | 29% / 18% / 6% |
| Resort | 47.2% (N=6) | 46.2% (N=6) | 71.6% (N=7) | 0% / 0% / 0% | |
| Business | 30.8% (N=28) | 48.7% (N=42) | 56.2% (N=54) | 32% / 2% / 0% | |
| Kanagawa | Ryokan | 19.0% (N=123) | 27.3% (N=120) | 46.9% (N=144) | 45% / 28% / 10% |
| Resort | 21.2% (N=20) | 30.8% (N=21) | 62.4% (N=20) | 25% / 10% / 0% | |
| Business | 14.0% (N=47) | 33.8% (N=62) | 57.9% (N=86) | 36% / 6% / 1% |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (night-by-night remaining-room rates are property averages. The 30% allocation condition is applied to each night separately, so N does not match the three-night-average table. “Share of properties with zero rooms” is the share of properties with 0 rooms left on the October 9 snapshot, which is defined differently from the “share of properties with zero rooms observed” in the next section (properties that hit zero at least once during the observation period).)
Where it sits among the autumn holidays — October weekend near final, Culture Day mid-way, November weekend early
The same procedure was run on the October three-day weekend (Oct 10-12) and on Oct 31-Nov 3, which includes Culture Day. The three periods, however, are at different distances from their stay dates. At the time of writing, the October weekend was one to three days away, so its remaining-room rates are close to final. Oct 31-Nov 3 is mid-way at 22-25 days out, and the November weekend is early at 43-45 days out. On that basis, ryokan remaining-room rates (median) stand at Kyoto 11.5%, Nagano 8.3% and Gifu 4.5% for the October weekend, Kyoto 27.3% and Nagano 22.5% for Culture Day, and Kyoto 18.2% and Nagano 32.0% for the November weekend. For Kyoto ryokan alone, the November weekend, still 43 days away, has already fallen below Culture Day’s rate (27.3%) at 22 days out. In other words, bookings for the weekend that coincides with peak foliage are running about three weeks ahead of Culture Day.
| Prefecture (ryokan) | October weekend 10/10-12 1-3 days before stay, near final | Culture Day 10/31-11/3 22-25 days before stay | Foliage weekend 11/21-23 43-45 days before stay | Share of properties with zero rooms observed on the first night 10/10 / 10/31 / 11/21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | 11.5% (N=130) | 27.3% (N=137) | 18.2% (N=113) | 83% / 33% / 70% |
| Nagano | 8.3% (N=345) | 22.5% (N=360) | 32.0% (N=306) | 91% / 61% / 39% |
| Tochigi | 8.9% (N=153) | 23.9% (N=156) | 28.0% (N=142) | 87% / 44% / 48% |
| Gifu | 4.5% (N=139) | 15.0% (N=147) | 25.4% (N=145) | 94% / 71% / 54% |
| Kanagawa | 6.7% (N=175) | 20.8% (N=179) | 20.8% (N=169) | 91% / 55% / 65% |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (ryokan with OTA allocation of at least 30%, remaining-room rate is the property median of the period average, as of October 9, 2026)
The share of properties with zero rooms observed on the first night tells the same story. On the first night of the October weekend, 10/10 (Sat), 83% of ryokan in Kyoto, 91% in Nagano and 94% in Gifu reached zero rooms, close to their final state. Working backward from 45 days before this October weekend was covered by type in Tochigi’s October three-day weekend (ryokan N=149-150, estimated OCC observed in late September) and Nagano’s three-day weekend (ryokan N=280, observed September 20), which use different metrics and samples from this article’s property-level remaining-room rate. On the first night of Culture Day, 10/31 (Sat), the share is 33% in Kyoto and 61% in Nagano; for 11/21 (Sat), it is 70% in Kyoto and 39% in Nagano. In Kyoto, the first night of the November weekend is ahead of the first night of Culture Day at 22 days out, making it clear that the three-day peak-foliage weekend is moving faster than the four days around Culture Day (November 3 is a Tuesday holiday, and Monday the 2nd in between is a working day). Over the four Culture Day nights, the share of Kyoto ryokan with zero rooms was 33/39/31/32%, an almost flat “spread-out” pattern, whereas the November weekend shows a “two-step Saturday-Sunday” pattern of 70/65/29%, so the night-by-night shape differs too.
To compare at the same LT, booking-curve metrics are used. Lining up the inventory-based remaining-room rate on major booking sites at 45 days before each stay, Kyoto ryokan (128 properties, 2,276 rooms) were at 27.0% for 10/10, 31.5% for 10/31 and 16.7% for the regular weekend night of 11/14, against 7.3% for 11/21: at T-45, the November weekend was the furthest along of the autumn holidays. Kanagawa ryokan (163 properties, 3,998 rooms) show the same pattern, at 18.0% for 10/10 versus 8.0% for 11/21. Nagano ryokan (274 properties, 6,382 rooms) were at 17.3% for 10/10 versus 21.1% for 11/21, so at T-45 the October weekend was slightly further along. This inventory-based rate counts only the inventory listed on OTAs, so it comes out lower than the property-level rate with the 30% allocation condition. It is used only for relative comparison at the same LT, not for levels.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (ryokan, remaining-room rate based on inventory listed on major booking sites, at 45 days before each stay date. Properties covered: Kyoto 128, Nagano 274, Tochigi 146, Gifu 139, Kanagawa 163)
Following the booking curve for the first night of the October weekend, 10/10 (Sat), from 45 days to 2 days out gives a reference line for when remaining rooms get absorbed. For all property types (listed on major booking sites; Kyoto 752 properties, 32,502 rooms, and so on), the remaining-room rate at T-45 was 14.0% in Kyoto, 20.4% in Nagano and 25.9% in Tochigi; by T-30 it had fallen to 8.0%, 13.2% and 19.9%, and by T-2 to 1.2%, 2.9% and 2.8%. In the two weeks from T-45 to T-30, 20-40% of remaining rooms disappeared (Kyoto 43%, Nagano 35%, Tochigi 23%), and what was left at T-30 was absorbed step by step through T-14, T-7 and T-2. For the November weekend, that means the first crunch is the two weeks to October 22 (T-30), with absorption continuing into early November.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (night of 10/10 (Sat), all property types, remaining-room rate based on inventory listed on major booking sites, LT45-LT2)
At the property level, too, the timing of when ryokan reached zero rooms over the October weekend skews late. Of the property-nights that reached zero rooms within 45 days, the share that did so between 7 days out and the day of arrival was 37% in Kyoto, 33% in Tochigi, 25% in Gifu, 23% in Kanagawa and 20% in Nagano. How a long weekend finally fills is largely decided in the final week. Properties that still have rooms in the LT43 snapshot of the November weekend therefore structurally retain room to capture demand in the last week.
| Prefecture (ryokan, 3 nights of October weekend) | Property-nights reaching zero rooms within 45 days | 31-45 days out | 15-30 days out | 8-14 days out | 7 days out to day of arrival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | 123 | 16% | 30% | 17% | 37% |
| Nagano | 343 | 30% | 31% | 20% | 20% |
| Tochigi | 165 | 20% | 26% | 21% | 33% |
| Gifu | 121 | 30% | 31% | 14% | 25% |
| Kanagawa | 223 | 24% | 35% | 18% | 23% |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (ryokan with OTA allocation of at least 30%, three nights of 10/10-12 counted by property × stay date. Zero-room observations from 45 or more days out are excluded.)
Rates — Kyoto and Hakone +21-53% over a regular weekend, Nagano, Gifu and Tochigi roughly normal
Rates were checked on two snapshots. The first is the listed price on the booking curve, comparing the night of 11/21 (Sat) with the regular weekend night of 11/14 (Sat), both at 45 days out. Across all property types, Kyoto was at ¥91,200 against ¥59,800 for the regular weekend (+52.6%), and Kanagawa at ¥62,500 (+42.7%): the two markets that coincide with peak foliage show wide gaps. By contrast, Nagano is at -1.4%, Gifu +1.2% and Tochigi +7.8%, so the long weekend is barely reflected in listed prices. For ryokan alone, Kyoto is +34.6% and Kanagawa +20.5%, while Gifu is -10.3%, below a regular weekend, with Nagano at +3.5% and Tochigi +4.1%. Because the listed price is the average of remaining inventory, and cheaper plans sell first and push up what remains, Kyoto and Hakone, with low remaining-room rates, tend to come out high, which needs to be discounted. Even so, the fact that Gifu ryokan price the long-weekend night below a regular weekend suggests discounts and early-booking plans may be applied unchanged to the holiday dates, an area that can be reviewed in the remaining six weeks.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (all property types, average listed price of remaining inventory on major booking sites, two guests per room, tax included, at 45 days before each stay date)
The second is the monthly estimated settled ADR. The November 2026 figures are estimates based on listed price levels at the time of the survey: Kyoto ¥26,400 (+6.5% YoY, N=588), Nagano ¥13,700 (+10.0%, N=765), Tochigi ¥12,900 (+4.2%, N=379), Gifu ¥14,300 (+14.5%, N=360) and Kanagawa ¥15,600 (+0.0%, N=557). Kyoto has a monthly seasonality that jumps from ¥21,400 in October to ¥26,400 in November, making November its highest month of the year. Gifu and Nagano show strong YoY growth of +14.5% and +10.0% (November 2026 is an estimate based on listed price levels at the time of the survey and November 2025 an estimate after the fact, so this is not a strict like-for-like comparison; for reference, both prefectures are also up around 9% YoY on a listed-price basis), in contrast with listed prices for the long-weekend dates staying at normal levels. If monthly ADR is growing while long-weekend listed prices are no different from a regular weekend, the holiday dates alone may be priced relatively cheaply.
| Prefecture | 11/21 (Sat) listed price All types, at T-45 | 11/14 (Sat) regular weekend | Difference | Ryokan 11/21 vs 11/14 | Nov estimated settled ADR YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | ¥91,250 | ¥59,803 | +52.6% | ¥68,627 → ¥92,342 (+34.6%) | ¥26,410 (+6.5%, N=588) |
| Nagano | ¥34,412 | ¥34,902 | -1.4% | ¥37,985 → ¥39,312 (+3.5%) | ¥13,678 (+10.0%, N=765) |
| Tochigi | ¥37,416 | ¥34,719 | +7.8% | ¥46,805 → ¥48,737 (+4.1%) | ¥12,884 (+4.2%, N=379) |
| Gifu | ¥37,720 | ¥37,255 | +1.2% | ¥44,112 → ¥39,570 (-10.3%) | ¥14,335 (+14.5%, N=360) |
| Kanagawa | ¥62,530 | ¥43,815 | +42.7% | ¥55,266 → ¥66,616 (+20.5%) | ¥15,577 (+0.0%, N=557) |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (listed price is the average of remaining inventory at T-45, two guests per room, tax included; estimated settled ADR for November 2026 is an estimate based on listed price levels at the time of the survey, tax-excluded equivalent)
Implications for operators — levers by inventory stage, with 43 days to go
Splitting long-weekend inventory into three stages by remaining-room rate clarifies which levers to pull: properties below 20% (most ryokan in Kyoto and Hakone), properties at 20-40% (ryokan in Nagano, Gifu and Tochigi, and resorts in each prefecture), and properties with 40% or more left (business hotels in Tochigi, Gifu and Nagano, and Monday nights in general).
| Inventory stage | Typical segments | Multi-night conditions / minimum stay | Releasing cancelled inventory | Half-board vs. room-only mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 20% left | Kyoto and Hakone ryokan (Saturday), Kyoto city and business hotels | Keep a two-night condition on Saturday and use it to capture Sunday and Monday nights. Accept one-night-only stays only once remaining rooms are down to single units | In the October weekend, 20-40% of sell-outs happened in the final week. Re-list cancellations the same day, starting with the highest-priced plans | Steer remaining inventory to premium half-board plans and close room-only. In markets where listed prices are +21-53% over a regular weekend, pull discount plans from the holiday dates |
| 20-40% left | Ryokan in Nagano, Gifu and Tochigi; resorts in Nagano, Tochigi and Kanagawa | Keep the two-night minimum on Saturday, and open a separate allocation for one-night Sunday-in, Monday-out stays. In prefectures where about half of Monday-night rooms remain, this is where demand can be captured | Allocate released inventory to Saturday first. Sunday and Monday already have rooms left, so mixing in released rooms there erodes price | Keep half-board as the core, and—assuming the foliage peaks late—offer an in-between “breakfast included, dinner out” plan for Sunday and Monday nights only |
| 40% or more left | Business hotels in Tochigi, Gifu and Nagano; Monday nights in each prefecture | Drop multi-night conditions and accept one-night stays. Leisure demand for Sunday and Monday nights overflows from ryokan, so the real window is late October onward, when ryokan inventory gets thin | Widen the OTA allocation itself. Properties listing less than 30% of their rooms look sold out even on long weekends and miss opportunities | Lead with room-only and position breakfast-included as the upgrade. In prefectures where listed prices match a regular weekend, there is room to raise Saturday only, in steps |
Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Inc. and HotelBank Editorial Team
The key point of this framework is to treat segments with high remaining-room rates as “segments with the most room to capture demand.” As the October weekend’s booking curve shows, 50-70% of the rooms remaining at T-45 are absorbed from T-30 onward. Segments with more than 40% of rooms left, such as Tochigi business hotels, are positioned to catch the demand that flows over once ryokan fill, and can increase long-weekend pickup depending on how they design multi-night conditions and OTA allocations. Conversely, for segments with thin remaining inventory, such as Kyoto and Hakone ryokan, steering what is left to premium plans and re-listing cancellations faster translates directly into rate.
For properties: plan-name tips for this theme
Most common selling points in published plan names for Kyoto × ryokan × autumn leaves (N=295) —
Kaiseki course 62%Seafood 34%Wagyu / brand beef 30%Open-air onsen 12%Crab 12%Discount 9%
Examples of actual names (anonymized):
- [10 Value Days] 10% OFF! [Autumn, Annex Bath] Every room with an onsen view bath: savor the autumn dawn kaiseki!
- [Special Week] 10% OFF! [Autumn, Annex Bath] Every room with an onsen view bath: savor the autumn dawn kaiseki!
- [Autumn, Annex Bath] Every room with an onsen view bath, new floor: indulge in a full course of seasonal red snow crab!
*Trends based on a tally of published plan names; they do not show that naming causes sales. For a deeper look at market × naming, see our naming benchmark and event articles.
Summary
Seen on the October 9 snapshot, the three-day weekend of November 21-23 has ryokan in Kyoto and Hakone at around 20% rooms left 43 days before the stay, ahead of where the Culture Day holiday stood at 22 days out. Ryokan in Nagano, Tochigi and Gifu have around 30% left, and business hotels in Tochigi more than 40%. By night, all five prefectures are first-night-led, Kyoto alone shows a two-step Saturday-Sunday pattern, and Monday night has the most slack everywhere. Rates in Kyoto and Hakone are +21-53% over a regular weekend, while Nagano, Gifu and Tochigi are at normal levels, so YoY growth in monthly ADR coexists with normal long-weekend listed prices. In the October weekend, 20-40% of sell-outs happened in the final week, and the remaining six weeks offer the most room to capture demand in the segments with the highest remaining-room rates. Note that these figures are an in-progress snapshot and include false positives from properties that restrict their OTA allocation and appear to have zero rooms, as well as remaining rooms at properties with older observations. We plan to rerun the same procedure once the stay dates are less than 30 days away and update the snapshot.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. Is it already impossible to book a Kyoto ryokan for the November 21-23 three-day weekend?
As of October 9, the 113 Kyoto ryokan that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs had a median remaining-room rate of 18.2%, and 70% had shown zero rooms for Saturday night. However, properties at zero from 45 or more days before the stay include observations made while their OTA allocation was small, so they have not necessarily stopped accepting guests. In the October weekend, 20-40% of sell-outs happened in the final week, and availability, including released cancellations, keeps moving until the last minute.
Q. Which night of the three-day weekend is easiest to book?
In all five prefectures, the night of November 23 (Mon, holiday) has the highest remaining-room rate: 43.9% (property average) at Kyoto ryokan and 52.3% in Nagano. Because the 24th is a weekday, Monday-night demand is close to a normal Sunday night.
Q. How much more do long-weekend rates cost than a regular weekend?
On listed prices at 45 days before the stay (all property types, average of remaining inventory), the night of November 21 was +52.6% in Kyoto and +42.7% in Kanagawa compared with the regular weekend night of November 14. Nagano (-1.4%), Gifu (+1.2%) and Tochigi (+7.8%) were roughly the same as a regular weekend. Note that the listed price is an average of remaining inventory, and it rises as cheaper plans sell first.
⚠ Note on forward-dated data: The remaining-room rates, listed prices and November 2026 estimated settled ADR in this article are interim figures based on inventory and prices published on major booking sites as of the October 9, 2026 survey, and will change as check-in approaches through additional inventory releases, cancellations and price adjustments. Properties showing zero rooms from 45 or more days before the stay include observations made while their OTA allocation was small, and are not confirmed sell-outs.
Related Articles
- Nov 21-23 Foliage Weekend: Oita Ryokan 10.9% Left, Hiroshima 52.2%
- Culture Day 2026: Nov 2 Bookings Track a Regular Monday, Kyoto 74.8%
- Yamanashi Oct 3-Day Weekend: Ryokan 96.4% First Night vs 62.5% Last
- New Year 2026-27: Take Dec 28 Off for 9 Days, Booking Pace from Nov 11
- Japan Fall Foliage 2026: Nagano 9 Days Late, Ryokan Bookings Checked
- Nov 2026’s Only Long Weekend Is Nov 21-23: Prices Peak in 4 of 7 Areas
- Tochigi Oct 3-Day Weekend: Ryokan Night 1 86.5% vs Final Night 64.9%
- Nagano Oct 3-Day Weekend: Final Night at 69.1% OCC, 45 Days Out
- Gifu Ryokan Oct Long Weekend: 92.1% Est. OCC at T-45, Weekend 79.1%
References and Sources
■ Data sources
Remaining rooms by property × stay date (room basis) observed by MetroEngines Research on major booking sites, booking curves by stay date (inventory-based remaining-room rate and listed price), and monthly estimated settled ADR. All snapshots as of October 9, 2026.
■ Calculation assumptions
The remaining-room rate sample is limited to properties with a track record of listing at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs during the observation period, shown as the median and mean of property-level rates (2,730 properties and 78,714 rooms across five prefectures, all types; type comparisons cover four types: ryokan, resort, city and business). The same condition is applied to each night in the night-by-night breakdown. Listed prices are averages of remaining inventory for two guests per room, tax included; estimated settled ADR is tax-excluded equivalent.
■ Limitations
These are interim figures with 43 days to go, and include false positives from properties that restrict their OTA allocation and appear to have zero rooms, as well as properties whose last observation is older (the share observed within the most recent seven days is 73-91% by prefecture). Because the October weekend is close to final, same-LT comparisons with the November weekend were made using inventory-based metrics. Kanagawa and Gifu are prefecture-wide totals, and the November 2026 estimated settled ADR is based on listed price levels at the time of the survey.
- 2026 autumn foliage forecast: later than usual nationwide, Kyoto’s Arashiyama around November 24 — Weathernews (Travel Voice, September 4, 2026) [Japanese]
- Weathernews, “First Autumn Foliage Peak Forecast” (released September 3, 2026) [Japanese]
- Cabinet Office, “About National Holidays” (2026 holidays: Labor Thanksgiving Day November 23, Culture Day November 3, Sports Day October 12) [Japanese]
- Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” [Japanese]
- MetroEngines Research — remaining-room observations on major booking sites (room basis by property × stay date, properties with OTA allocation of at least 30%), booking curves, estimated settled ADR (as of October 9, 2026)