Booking curves compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team as of November 1, 2026 for business hotels in Shimogyo Ward, Kyoto City (the Kyoto Station area) show that Saturday, November 21 — the first night of November’s three-day weekend — had already reached an estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) of 99.1% at 21 days before the stay date. By contrast, Monday, November 23 (Labor Thanksgiving Day), the final night of the same holiday weekend, stood at 84.3% at 23 days out — a gap of roughly 15 points from the first night. Friday the 20th, the eve of the weekend, was at 92.3%, and Sunday the 22nd, the middle night, at 95.1%. Holiday-weekend demand is concentrated on Saturday and Sunday and does not carry over to Monday, the day guests head home. In this article we compare the booking curves for these four nights with the surrounding weekends at the same lead time, overlay the day-of-week profile shown by October’s final results and the seasonal shape of estimated settled ADR for business hotels across Kyoto Prefecture, and lay out what revenue managers running business hotels in Shimogyo Ward should check over the remaining three weeks.
Coverage: business hotels in Shimogyo Ward, Kyoto City, N=69–70 properties (7,637–7,701 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites). For comparison: all properties in Shimogyo Ward, N=202–209 (12,257–12,373 rooms), and all properties in Higashiyama Ward, N=119–120 (2,809–2,810 rooms). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled-price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of: November 1, 2026.
• ADR (average daily rate) = an estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent) calculated by applying segment-specific adjustment factors to the lowest-priced plan each property publishes on OTAs (per room, 2 guests per room, tax included). Cross-checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual settled prices and accounting figures.
• Area-level ADR (prefecture / municipality) is the median of the estimated settled rates of the covered properties (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they refer to the per-room rate for 2 guests per room (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy) = the share of rooms sold out of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracks OTA published prices for approx. 168,000 properties in Japan, of which approx. 27,000 have verified operations)
- — 99.1% at 21 days out: Shimogyo Ward business hotels (N=69) on Sat 11/21, the first night of the three-day weekend, were at an estimated OCC of 99.1% as of November 1, 2026. From 91.9% at 45 days out, the night ran more than 10 points ahead of the surrounding Saturdays (79.8% and 81.2%).
- — Final night 11/23 at 84.3%: The final night, Monday (holiday), was at 84.3% at 23 days out — about 15 points below the first night — and its 82.5% at 30 days out was below a regular Monday, 11/16 (86.0%). There is room to revisit pricing for this night as a “Monday” rather than a “holiday.”
- — Middle night 11/22 tracks Saturday: Sunday the 22nd at 30 days out (93.7%) was 6–11 points above the surrounding Sundays (87.1% and 82.8%). Leaving the usual Sunday discount logic in place would mean selling mid-holiday demand too cheaply.
- — November is the highest-rate month of the year: Estimated settled ADR for Kyoto Prefecture business hotels peaked for the year in November 2025 at ¥21,610 (N=314). The current estimate for November 2026 is ¥24,716 (N=321); the question is less “will rooms fill” than “at what price were they filled.”
Booking Curves for the Four Holiday Nights — Saturday Pinned at the Ceiling, the Final Night Weekday-Like
First, let us track the progress of each of the four holiday nights from 45 days before the stay date to the latest observation point. Saturday, November 21 was already at 91.9% at 45 days out, rose to 97.7% at 30 days, and reached 99.1% at 21 days out (as of November 1) — a level at which virtually no inventory remains. The gain from 45 days to 21 days was 7.2 points, but the correct reading is that the high starting point left little headroom, not that the pace was slow.
Monday the 23rd (holiday), by contrast, went from 74.4% at 45 days out to 82.5% at 30 days and 84.3% at 23 days. Its 9.9-point gain is the second-largest of the four nights after Friday, but the level itself has stayed nearly 15 points below Saturday throughout. Sunday the 22nd, the middle night, gained 8.8 points from 86.3% to 95.1%, and Friday the 20th, the eve of the weekend, gained 10.2 points from 82.1% to 92.3%, so Friday and Sunday move in step just behind Saturday. In sum, demand over the three-day weekend has a three-tier shape: “Saturday at the top, Friday and Sunday side by side, and only Monday one step lower.” For this holiday weekend, our analysis that lines up business hotels, city hotels and ryokan across all of Kyoto Prefecture at the 30-day snapshot and works back from the previous Saturday and the middle and final days to build a sales calendar —Kyoto’s Labor Thanksgiving three-day weekend: first night 11/21 at 98.3% for business hotels and 75.1% sold-out share at 30 days out— is worth reading alongside this article’s Shimogyo Ward analysis.
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Shimogyo Ward business hotels, N=69–70 properties, 7,637–7,701 rooms; observations from 45 days before each stay date to the latest point)
Looking at the same four nights across all Shimogyo Ward properties (N=202–209, 12,257–12,373 rooms), the shape does not change. Saturday the 21st went from 93.4% at 45 days out to 99.2% at 21 days, and Monday the 23rd (holiday) from 78.5% to 85.6% — the final night is only a little over 1 point higher than the business-hotel-only figure. In other words, the weakness of the final night is not unique to business hotels; it is a shape common to the entire lodging market around Kyoto Station.
| Stay date | 45 days out | 30 days out | Latest observation (days remaining) | Gain (45 days out → latest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/20 (Fri) Business | 82.1% | 90.0% | 92.3% (20 days out) | +10.2pt |
| 11/21 (Sat) Business | 91.9% | 97.7% | 99.1% (21 days out) | +7.2pt |
| 11/22 (Sun) Business | 86.3% | 93.7% | 95.1% (22 days out) | +8.8pt |
| 11/23 (Mon, holiday) Business | 74.4% | 82.5% | 84.3% (23 days out) | +9.9pt |
| 11/20 (Fri) All properties | 84.1% | 90.2% | 91.9% (20 days out) | +7.8pt |
| 11/21 (Sat) All properties | 93.4% | 98.0% | 99.2% (21 days out) | +5.8pt |
| 11/22 (Sun) All properties | 88.8% | 94.8% | 96.3% (22 days out) | +7.5pt |
| 11/23 (Mon, holiday) All properties | 78.5% | 84.2% | 85.6% (23 days out) | +7.1pt |
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis; business N=69–70 properties, all properties N=202–209; as of November 1, 2026)
Comparing with Surrounding Weekends at the Same Lead Time — the Holiday Effect Is Concentrated on Saturday and Sunday and Does Not Reach Monday
How special the four holiday nights are becomes clearer when they are lined up against the surrounding weekends at the same lead time. Here we use “30 days out” as the fixed point, since all 12 nights have an observation there. Saturday the 21st stood at 97.7% at 30 days out, 7–8 points ahead of the previous Saturday, the 14th (90.9% at the same lead time), and the following Saturday, the 28th (89.6%). Going back to 45 days out the gap is even wider: 91.9% for the 21st versus 79.8% for the 14th and 81.2% for the 28th. The holiday Saturday was running more than 10 points ahead of the surrounding Saturdays from an early stage.
This lead, however, does not carry over to Monday. Monday the 23rd (holiday) at 30 days out (82.5%) was below the non-holiday Monday the 16th at the same point (86.0%), sitting between it and Monday the 30th (78.9%). In other words, the final night of the three-day weekend is not “high because it is a holiday”; if anything, it is pacing the same as, or slightly weaker than, a regular Monday. Sunday the 22nd at 93.7%, on the other hand, was 6–11 points above Sunday the 15th (87.1%) and Sunday the 29th (82.8%), so for Sunday the holiday effect is clearly visible.
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Shimogyo Ward business hotels, N=69–71 properties, 7,637–7,727 rooms; estimated OCC at 30 days before each stay date)
Behind this lies how holiday itineraries are built. If many travelers arrive in Kyoto over Saturday and Sunday and treat Monday as a travel-home day — sightseeing only, or leaving the night before — then final-night demand looks more like a weekday. This pattern is also tied to the fact that the peak of the autumn-leaves season is still ahead. Kiyomizu-dera (清水寺) announces on its official website that its autumn special night viewing runs from November 21 to 30, and night viewings have been reported for Eikando (永観堂) from November 11 to December 6 and for To-ji (東寺) from October 31 to December 13 (see the references at the end of the article). Since illumination periods continue beyond the holiday weekend, lodging demand does not end with the holiday either and has room to spread into the following week and beyond.
For comparison, looking at Higashiyama Ward — the core of Kyoto sightseeing (all properties, N=119–120, 2,809–2,810 rooms) — at the same lead times, Saturday the 21st went from 88.2% at 45 days out to 97.4% at 21 days: 3–4 points below Shimogyo Ward business hotels (91.9%) at the starting point, but nearly level with them most recently. For the final night, the 23rd, Higashiyama Ward was at 80.4% at 45 days and 86.5% at 23 days, consistently 2–6 points above Shimogyo Ward business hotels (74.4% → 84.3%). Station-area hotels follow a “fill up early, leave vacancies on the final night” pattern, while sightseeing-area hotels follow a “fill gradually and hold up on the final night” pattern.
| Stay date | Shimogyo business, 45 days out | Shimogyo business, 30 days out | Higashiyama all properties, 45 days out | Higashiyama all properties, 30 days out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/13 (Fri) | 78.1% | 89.1% | — | — |
| 11/14 (Sat) | 79.8% | 90.9% | — | — |
| 11/15 (Sun) | 78.7% | 87.1% | — | — |
| 11/16 (Mon) | 77.4% | 86.0% | — | — |
| 11/20 (Fri) | 82.1% | 90.0% | 80.3% | 87.9% |
| 11/21 (Sat) | 91.9% | 97.7% | 88.2% | 95.1% |
| 11/22 (Sun) | 86.3% | 93.7% | 86.4% | 92.2% |
| 11/23 (Mon, holiday) | 74.4% | 82.5% | 80.4% | 84.7% |
| 11/27 (Fri) | 82.2% | 89.5% | — | — |
| 11/28 (Sat) | 81.2% | 89.6% | — | — |
| 11/29 (Sun) | 77.1% | 82.8% | — | — |
| 11/30 (Mon) | 73.2% | 78.9% | — | — |
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Shimogyo Ward business N=69–71 properties, Higashiyama Ward all properties N=119–120; estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis; as of November 1, 2026)
Day-of-Week Profile from October’s Final Results — Troughs on Monday and Sunday, Saturday at 97.5%
Whether the final-night weakness is a one-off can be checked against results for the most recent completed month. Averaging daily estimated OCC for October 2026 by day of week for Shimogyo Ward business hotels (N=68–70 properties, 7,632–7,798 rooms), Saturday was highest at 97.5%, followed by Wednesday 95.7%, Thursday 95.4%, Friday 95.1% and Tuesday 94.2%, with Sunday 92.4% and Monday 91.7% the lowest. The monthly average was 94.7%, and the gap between Saturday and Monday was 5.8 points. By individual day, the high was Saturday, October 10 at 99.7% and the low was Monday, October 5 at 88.4%; the day-of-week trough falling on Monday matches the holiday-weekend curve. For business hotels across Kyoto Prefecture, we also confirmed inKyoto business hotels in September: Saturday 89.6%, Sunday 82.1% — excluding holidays, Sunday dips to 76.1%that Sunday was the trough in September’s day-of-week estimated OCC and that the trough deepens further when holidays are excluded; the day-of-week shape with troughs on Sunday and Monday has persisted through the autumn.
What stands out is that some weekdays were also near the ceiling, such as Wednesday, October 21 at 99.5% and Thursday, October 22 at 98.8%. In autumn Kyoto, the gap between weekdays and weekends is structurally small, and the market as a whole is nearly full for the month. When occupancy is this high, differences between properties shift from “whether they fill” to “at what price they fill.” That is why the next section examines the seasonal shape of estimated settled ADR.
| Day of week | Days | Average estimated OCC | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 4 | 91.7% | 88.4% | 94.4% |
| Tuesday | 4 | 94.2% | 91.5% | 97.0% |
| Wednesday | 4 | 95.7% | 93.8% | 99.5% |
| Thursday | 5 | 95.4% | 89.0% | 98.8% |
| Friday | 5 | 95.1% | 91.6% | 98.2% |
| Saturday | 5 | 97.5% | 92.8% | 99.7% |
| Sunday | 4 | 92.4% | 89.2% | 96.4% |
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Shimogyo Ward business hotels, N=68–70 properties, 7,632–7,798 rooms; daily estimated OCC for October 2026 on an OTA-listed inventory basis; monthly average 94.7%)
Estimated Settled ADR for Kyoto Prefecture Business Hotels — November Is the Highest Month of the Year
On price, we overlay estimated settled ADR for business hotels in Kyoto Prefecture (N=312–329 properties) against the prior year. In the finalized 2025 monthly series, November was the annual high at ¥21,600, 7.8% above April’s ¥20,000 and 2.13 times January’s ¥10,100. Of Kyoto’s two peaks — autumn leaves and cherry blossoms — autumn was the season in which business hotels sold at higher rates.
Comparing the finalized months of 2026 (January–September) with the same months a year earlier, spring was above the prior year — March +6.7%, April +1.3%, May +10.5% — while summer saw a run of months below it: June −9.8%, July −13.0%, August −15.6% and September −2.4%. With the spring peak higher and the summer trough deeper than last year, the seasonal swing is widening. On this trajectory, the current estimate for November, based on sales to date, is ¥24,700 (N=321), above last year’s final figure — but this number can change with further sales, and a straightforward comparison with the final figure must wait until the month closes. October’s ¥20,800 (N=320) is likewise a current estimate. For how the year-on-year gap for business hotels narrowed to −2.4% in September’s final figures, and how the gap for city hotels widened in the same month as the two segments diverged, seeKyoto’s finalized September: business hotels narrowed to −2.4%, city hotels at −14.6% — the YoY gap in estimated settled ADR that split from Augustfor details.
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kyoto Prefecture business hotels, N=312–329 properties; estimated settled ADR, tax-excluded equivalent; 2025 and January–September 2026 are final, October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales)
| Month | 2025 (final) | 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | ¥10,148 N=312 | ¥9,773 N=319, final | -3.7% |
| February | ¥9,941 N=313 | ¥9,641 N=319, final | -3.0% |
| March | ¥15,904 N=318 | ¥16,969 N=329, final | +6.7% |
| April | ¥20,038 N=318 | ¥20,308 N=328, final | +1.3% |
| May | ¥13,820 N=320 | ¥15,278 N=329, final | +10.5% |
| June | ¥10,659 N=319 | ¥9,616 N=324, final | -9.8% |
| July | ¥11,752 N=318 | ¥10,230 N=325, final | -13.0% |
| August | ¥11,846 N=318 | ¥9,993 N=325, final | -15.6% |
| September | ¥11,992 N=319 | ¥11,701 N=327, final | -2.4% |
| October | ¥18,068 N=319 | ¥20,762 N=320, current estimate | — (compared once final) |
| November | ¥21,610 N=314 | ¥24,716 N=321, current estimate | — (compared once final) |
| December | ¥13,224 N=315 | ¥14,230 N=315, current estimate | — (compared once final) |
Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR for Kyoto Prefecture business hotels, tax-excluded equivalent; YoY compares finalized months only; October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales and may change)
For Revenue Managers Running Business Hotels Around Kyoto Station (Shimogyo Ward) — Implications and Action Plan
1. For Saturday, November 21, the question has shifted from “will it fill” to “at what price was it filled.”With market estimated OCC at 99.1% at 21 days out, if your hotel still holds unsold rooms that night, it is more likely that your conditions are out of step with the market than that the market has not sold out. Even with rooms remaining, this is not a moment to catch up by cutting prices; rather, it is the time to check — using last November’s final estimated settled ADR of ¥21,600 and the current estimate of ¥24,700 as yardsticks — whether your Saturday settings have drifted from those levels.
2. It is realistic to treat the final night, Monday the 23rd (holiday), as a “Monday” rather than a “holiday.”Its 82.5% at 30 days out is below the regular Monday the 16th (86.0%), and this coincides with October’s Monday average of 91.7% being the day-of-week trough. If settings that simply apply holiday rates remain in place, there is room to rebuild the multi-night conditions from Sunday the 22nd and the price ladder for single-night stays on the 23rd from the same perspective as other weekdays. The fact that Higashiyama Ward holds 86.5% even on the 23rd shows that final-night demand sits on the sightseeing side; for station-area hotels, an option is to position the night not as “the night before heading home” but as “a final night that makes the next morning’s travel easy.”
3. Sunday the 22nd can be designed as a Saturday-equivalent night.Its 93.7% at 30 days out is 6–11 points above the surrounding Sundays (87.1% and 82.8%), and its curve resembles Saturday’s. If settings that discount Sunday under normal weekend logic remain, mid-holiday demand will be sold too cheaply.
4. The weekend after the holiday (the 28th and 29th) remains open as capacity for the peak of the autumn-leaves season.Saturday the 28th at 30 days out (89.6%) is 8 points below the 21st at the same point, and Sunday the 29th (82.8%) and Monday the 30th (78.9%) are lower still. With Kiyomizu-dera’s special night viewing running until the 30th and Eikando’s until December 6, there is room for demand that could not be captured over the holiday to slip into the following week, and one option is to build up these nights as the second half of the autumn-leaves season.
| Time horizon | Action | Decision trigger (against the figures in this article) | Aim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today to this week (approx. 20 days remaining) | Check your own pickup for the 21st (Sat) and 22nd (Sun) against the market curve | If your 21st remains well below the market’s 99.1% and your 22nd well below 95.1%, review sales conditions (multi-night stays, room types, plan mix) rather than price | Avoid rushing to sell in a market near the ceiling |
| Today to this week | Reset the rate ladder for the 23rd (Mon, holiday) from a weekday perspective | If your 23rd has not reached the market’s 84.3% (23 days out) and is still held at holiday rates | Reduce missed final-night business |
| Within 2 weeks (approx. 7–14 days remaining) | Decide multi-night conditions for the 22nd–23rd and inventory allocation for last-minute single-night demand on the 23rd | Given that the market’s 23rd has gained only 1.8 points, from 82.5% at 30 days out to 84.3% at 23 days out, allocate without relying on late pickup | Position inventory to match Monday-type demand |
| Within 2 weeks | Check pre-holiday demand for the 20th (Fri) | If your hotel has not kept pace with the market’s 20th, which rose 10.2 points from 82.1% at 45 days out to 92.3% at 20 days out | Capture holiday-eve demand |
| Looking ahead to next month (28th–30th, early December) | Build up the late autumn-leaves nights (28th and 29th) separately from the holiday | If the market’s 28th (Sat) stays at 89.6% and 29th (Sun) at 82.8% at 30 days out, bring forward messaging built around the illumination period | Make the post-holiday trough shallower |
| Looking ahead to next month | Compare your November ADR results with the market’s final figures | Once November’s estimated settled ADR is finalized at month-end, compare the change from last year’s ¥21,610 with your own rate of change | Set the starting point for the December and next-spring price calendars |
Source: Prepared by the HotelBank Editorial Team (decision-trigger figures refer to the values compiled in this article)
Summary — A Yardstick for Reading the Holiday Weekend in “Three Tiers”
For business hotels in Shimogyo Ward, November’s three-day weekend is not a single block of peak demand but splits into three tiers. The first tier is Saturday, which ran more than 10 points ahead of the surrounding Saturdays from 45 days out and hit the ceiling at 99.1% at 21 days out. The second tier is Friday and Sunday, at 92.3% and 95.1% respectively, tracking just behind Saturday — with Sunday showing a holiday effect 6–11 points above the surrounding Sundays. The third tier is the final night, Monday, whose 84.3% looks more like a regular Monday than a holiday, consistent with Monday being the trough in October’s day-of-week profile.
Applying this three-tier structure to your own curve also sets the order of what to check. Treat each as a separate question: for Saturday and Sunday, the soundness of price and sales conditions; for Monday, weekday-based settings and multi-night design; and for the weekend after the holiday, building it up as capacity for the second half of the autumn-leaves season. With the market’s estimated settled ADR peaking for the year in November, this is a month in which results will be decided less by filling rooms itself than by “which tier was filled, and at what price.”
About the Data
| Item | Description |
|---|---|
| Definition of estimated OCC | OTA-listed-inventory-based occupancy = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of properties that list 30% or more of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; N= in the article is the number of properties). This is an estimate based on the depletion of inventory sold on OTAs and differs in definition from actual room occupancy (it tends to read higher because rooms not listed are counted as sold). |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before each stay date to the latest point. The latest observation for each stay date is as of November 1, 2026 (November 20 = 20 days out, 21 = 21 days out, 22 = 22 days out, 23 = 23 days out). |
| Definition of estimated settled ADR | The settled-price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × segment factor, ensemble of multiple channels). Past months are final values; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error versus published operating results: 6.6%. |
| Breakdown of covered properties | Shimogyo Ward business hotels N=68–71 properties (7,632–7,798 rooms; varies by stay date), all Shimogyo Ward properties N=202–209 (12,257–12,373 rooms), all Higashiyama Ward properties N=119–120 (2,809–2,810 rooms), all based on listings on major booking sites. Kyoto Prefecture business hotel estimated settled ADR N=312–329 properties (varies by month). The October day-of-week tally covers the 31 days from October 1 to 31, 2026. |
| Data as of | Data as of: November 1, 2026. Because sales and inventory change daily, the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. |
References and Sources
| Source | Referenced content |
|---|---|
| Otowasan Kiyomizu-dera (音羽山 清水寺) official website | Dates of the autumn 2026 special night viewing (November 21–30) |
| Kyoto Autumn Leaves Light-Up & Special Night Viewing Complete Guide (tabi-mag) | 2026 night viewing periods for Eikando (November 11–December 6) and To-ji (October 31–December 13) (information as of reporting; see each temple’s official announcements for the latest) |
| Cabinet Office: About “National Holidays” | Holiday classification of Labor Thanksgiving Day (November 23) |
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