The Okayama Marathon 2026 (the 10th edition) will be held on Sunday, November 8, 2026, starting and finishing at Okayama Prefectural Sports Park. Looking at booking progress for hotels in Kita Ward, Okayama City (all property types, 31 properties / 4,040 rooms) as of October 29, the race eve of Saturday, November 7 has climbed from an estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) of 80.7% at 45 days out to 88.5% at the latest reading (10 days out). By contrast, Sunday, November 8 — the night after the race — stood at 57.5% at 45 days out and only 67.7% even at the latest reading (11 days out), leaving a 20.8pt gap to the race eve. This article reads this “race eve fills, race night stays open” structure against the booking curves of the same weekdays one week earlier and one week later and against September–October day-of-week actuals, and lays out what to do in the remaining 10 days.
Scope: Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types, N=31 properties (4,040 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites); supplementary set: Okayama Prefecture business hotels, N=48 properties (6,251 rooms). This article analyzes occupancy (booking progress); occupancy figures are estimates based on OTA-listed inventory, with definitions at the end of the article. Booking curves are based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest available reading. Data as of: October 29, 2026.
• ADR (average daily rate) = estimated settled rate (tax-exclusive equivalent), calculated by applying segment-specific adjustment factors to the lowest plan price each property publishes on OTAs (per room, 2 guests, tax-inclusive). Checked against property-level actuals disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual settled rates and accounting figures.
• ADR at the area level (prefecture / municipality) is the median of the estimated settled rates of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for 2 guests (tax-inclusive).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuous tracking of OTA public prices for about 168,000 properties, of which about 27,000 are confirmed as operating)
- — Race eve, Sat Nov 7, was at 80.7% at 45 days out: estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) for Kita Ward, all property types (N=31 properties / 4,040 rooms), was already 80% committed at 45 days out and reached 88.5% at 10 days out. The gain over the most recent 10 days is small, around 1pt.
- — Race night, Sun Nov 8, is at 67.7% (11 days out): the gap to the race eve went from 23.2pt at 45 days out to 22.2pt at 30 days out to 20.8pt at the latest reading — essentially locked in as the race comes within 10 days.
- — The race lift is about 7pt on the eve and +1.7 to 5.5pt on race night: compared at the same lead time with the weeks before and after, race night sits at almost the same level as the following Sunday, Nov 15.
- — Sundays run at 79.5% even in normal weeks: in the day-of-week averages for September 1 – October 28, 2026, Sunday is the only day in the 70% range. A 10–15pt drop from Saturday is a normal weekend in Kita Ward, and Okayama Prefecture business hotels (N=48) show a 21.3pt eve-to-race-night gap as well.
- — Focus the playbook on race night’s headroom: offer an extra night to guests already booked for the eve, sell Nov 7–8 two-night stays, and if race night has not reached the low 70s at 4 days out, add rate conditions limited to race night.
Race Scale and the Shape of Lodging Demand — “Day-Before Check-In, Sunday Morning Start” Creates Race-Eve Stays
First, the source of demand. According to materials published by Okayama Prefecture, the Okayama Marathon 2026 starts at 8:45 a.m. on Sunday, November 8, with a marathon (42.195km) and a fun run (5.6km). Capacity is 16,400 runners in total (15,000 for the marathon and 1,400 for the fun run), and 34,478 people applied — more than twice the capacity. Runner check-in takes place only on the day before, Saturday, November 7, and the “Okayama Marathon EXPO” runs around the main venue from that day through race day. In other words, the standard flow for runners from afar is to arrive in Okayama on Saturday, complete check-in, and head to the start line early Sunday morning, so lodging demand is structurally concentrated on the Saturday race eve. Assuming the same “one night before the race” flow, our article 12 Marathons Oct-Feb: Start-Area Rooms compares how many rooms lie within 5km of the start line for 12 races nationwide.
Whether to stay on Sunday night after finishing, on the other hand, is up to each runner. The time limit is 6 hours, so many runners finish in the afternoon and split into those who head straight home and those who stay another night to recover. This “race-night choice” is exactly the part that hotels can move with their own actions. Below, we look at how this hypothesis shows up in booking data.
Booking Curves for Race Eve (Sat Nov 7) and Race Night (Sun Nov 8) — A Gap of 20pt+ Fixed Since 45 Days Out
Tracking estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) for Kita Ward, all property types (N=31 properties / 4,040 rooms) from 45 days before the stay date, Saturday, November 7 went from 80.7% at 45 days out to 85.2% at 30 days out to 88.5% at the latest reading (10 days out), adding +7.8pt over 35 days. It touched 89.2% at 14 days out along the way, and has been nearly flat in the 88–89% range over the past two weeks. Sunday, November 8, by contrast, went from 57.5% at 45 days out to 63.0% at 30 days out to 67.7% at the latest reading (11 days out). Its gain of +10.2pt is larger than the eve’s, but the level itself has stayed more than 20pt lower. The gap between the two nights was 23.2pt at 45 days out, 22.2pt at 30 days out and 20.8pt at the latest reading — narrowing slightly but essentially fixed.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types, N=31 properties / 4,040 rooms; estimated OCC = OTA-listed inventory basis; lead time within 45 days)
Overlaying the curves for the previous weekend, Saturday, October 31 and Sunday, November 1, makes the character of the race eve clear. October 31 (Sat) stood at 61.8% at 45 days out and 71.3% at 30 days out — well behind November 7 — but reached 86.8% at 10 days out and 91.5% at 3 days out. That is +15.5pt over the 20 days from 30 to 10 days out; a normal Saturday is a “fills in the final two weeks” type. November 7 moved only +3.3pt (85.2%→88.5%) over the same 20 days, and at 10 days out its lead over a normal Saturday has narrowed to just 1.7pt. What defines the marathon eve is less the height of its final occupancy than “how early it is 80% committed at 45 days out.”
Overlaying the Sundays the same way, November 1 (Sun) went from 49.5% at 45 days out to 55.3% at 30 days out to 66.8% at 10 days out to 73.4% at 4 days out — a normal Sunday also picked up close in. November 8, at 67.7% at 11 days out, is only 1.9pt above November 1 at the same lead time (65.8%), so race-night demand can be summed up as “slightly stronger than a normal Sunday, but without the eve’s tendency to commit early.” The pattern of demand concentrating on the eve and not fully spilling over to race night was also seen in our booking curve analysis of the Shimonoseki Kaikyo Marathon eve (Oct 31), held in the same early-November window, and appears to be a shape common to race-eve demand.
| Stay date | 45 days out | 30 days out | Latest (observed LT) | 45 days out → latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 — race eve | 80.7% | 85.2% | 88.5% (10 days out) | +7.8pt |
| Sun Nov 8 — race night | 57.5% | 63.0% | 67.7% (11 days out) | +10.2pt |
| Fri Nov 6 | 55.5% | 61.3% | 76.3% (9 days out) | +20.8pt |
| Sat Oct 31 — week before | 61.8% | 71.3% | 91.5% (3 days out) | +29.7pt |
| Sun Nov 1 — week before | 49.5% | 55.3% | 73.4% (4 days out) | +23.9pt |
| Sat Nov 14 — week after | 63.9% | 72.8% | 81.8% (17 days out) | +17.9pt |
| Sun Nov 15 — week after | 53.3% | 57.9% | 65.0% (18 days out) | +11.7pt |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types, N=31 properties / 4,040 rooms; 30 properties / 4,030 rooms for Nov 14 and 15. Estimated OCC = OTA-listed inventory basis. “Latest” is the value at the closest lead time observable for each stay date; the further out the stay date, the longer that lead time)
Lining up the nights at the same lead time measures the size of the race effect. Comparing Saturdays at 17 days out, November 7 stood at 88.7% versus 81.3% for October 31 and 81.8% for November 14, a race-eve lift of about 7pt (+7.4pt / +6.9pt). Comparing Sundays at 18 days out, November 8 stood at 66.7% versus 61.2% for November 1 and 65.0% for November 15, a lift of only +5.5pt / +1.7pt. Being almost level with the following Sunday, November 15, suggests that race-night demand is not yet fully reaching the people who would “stay because of the race.”
September–October Actuals by Day of Week — Sundays in Kita Ward Run 10pt+ Below Weekdays
To separate whether race night’s low level is specific to the race or reflects the market’s baseline, we organized past actuals by day of week. Averaging estimated OCC for Kita Ward, all property types, from September 1 to October 28, 2026 by weekday (OTA-listed inventory basis, as of the day before each stay date, 25–31 properties), mid-week is highest at 91.8% on Tuesday, 92.5% on Wednesday and 92.8% on Thursday, followed by 88.3% on Friday and 89.1% on Saturday, while Sunday, at 79.5%, is the only day in the 70% range. Monday, at 86.8%, also takes a beat to recover from Sunday. Central Okayama is a market weighted toward business travel, and its normal baseline is “strong on weekdays, weak on Sundays” rather than a leisure-weekend market. The same Sunday dip was seen among Okayama Prefecture business hotels in August, and how to fill it is covered in Okayama Business Hotels: Wed 92.4% vs Sun 74.6%, a 17.8pt Sunday Gap.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types; estimated OCC for each Saturday and the following Sunday in September–October 2026 = OTA-listed inventory basis, as of the day before each stay date, 25–31 properties. September 20 is a Sunday within a holiday weekend)
Tracking the Saturday-to-Sunday gap week by week, October shows 6.2pt for Oct 3→4, 5.6pt for Oct 10→11, and 15.0pt each for Oct 17→18 and Oct 24→25. September likewise shows gaps of 9.1–16.9pt, excluding Sep 19→20, which fell on a holiday weekend (Saturday 97.6%, Sunday 100.0%). In other words, “Sunday 10–15pt below Saturday” is a normal weekend in Kita Ward, and the 20.8pt gap on the marathon weekend can be read as wider than usual by the amount the race has pushed up the eve. Looking at Sunday alone, November 8’s latest 67.7% is below the September–October Sunday average of 79.5%, but the previous Sunday also picked up close in (November 1 rose 6.6pt in six days, from 66.8% at 10 days out to 73.4% at 4 days out), so it is too early to call race night “weak” on its current level alone. Rather, what defines race night is that much more close-in headroom remains than on the eve.
| Day of week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average estimated OCC (Sep 1 – Oct 28) | 86.8% | 91.8% | 92.5% | 92.8% | 88.3% | 89.1% | 79.5% |
| Number of days | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types, 25–31 properties; estimated OCC as of the day before each stay date = OTA-listed inventory basis. Includes Sundays and Mondays within holiday weekends)
Same Shape for Okayama Prefecture Business Hotels — Race Eve 89.7%, Race Night 68.4%
To confirm this is not only a central-city, all-property-type phenomenon, we tracked the same four nights for business hotels across Okayama Prefecture (N=48 properties / 6,251 rooms). November 7 (Sat) went from 77.1% at 45 days out to 83.6% at 30 days out to 89.7% at the latest reading (10 days out), and November 8 (Sun) went from 55.7% to 62.0% to 68.4% (11 days out). The latest gap of 21.3pt is almost the same as for Kita Ward, all property types (20.8pt). The previous Saturday, October 31, stood at 65.5% at 45 days out, 87.5% at 10 days out and 92.3% at 3 days out — again, a normal Saturday caught up close in and topped 90% — and the following Saturday, November 14, reached 85.1% at 17 days out, within 3.4pt of November 7 at the same lead time (88.5%). At the prefecture level for business hotels too, the race effect on the eve shows up in “how early” rather than “how high,” and race night stays more than 20pt lower — the structure is unchanged.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Okayama Prefecture, business hotels, N=48 properties / 6,251 rooms; estimated OCC = OTA-listed inventory basis; lead time within 45 days)
Putting this together, three facts emerge. First, the Saturday race eve was 80% committed at 45 days out, and the gain over the most recent 10 days is small, around 1pt. Second, the Sunday race night is at 67–68% at the latest reading and has stayed more than 20pt below the eve, but this is also a market where the previous Sunday (November 1) gained 6.6pt between 10 and 4 days out. Third, Sundays normally run 10–15pt below Saturdays, and race night’s lift over the following Sunday at the same lead time is only +1.7pt. The logical focus for action, therefore, is not selling out the last 10% of an almost-full eve, but turning race night’s “headroom” into bookings from runners and their companions.
For Revenue Managers Running Hotels in Kita Ward and Okayama Prefecture — Implications and Action Plan
Operational Insights
1. If your race-eve curve is below the market’s 88.5% (10 days out), the cause is more likely missed bookings than weak demand. The market was already 80.7% committed at 45 days out. If your November 7 has tracked clearly below the market at the same points, your rate conditions were likely less attractive in late September to early October, when runners were booking, and what to tighten in the remaining 10 days is “how you sell the remaining rooms” rather than “revising conditions.” Conversely, if you are at or above the market, there is little need to fill with additional discounts, given that the market’s gain over the last 10 days is small, around 1pt.
2. Race night fills first at hotels that offer a “reason to stay.” The market level for Sunday is 67.7% (11 days out), almost the same as the following Sunday at the same lead time (65.0%). That Sunday is at a normal level despite the race suggests runners have not encountered anything that prompts them to consider staying after the finish. Whether you show runners and companions from afar — at the eve booking-confirmation stage — that a post-race Sunday stay makes sense (late checkout, information on bathing and stretching facilities, Monday-morning travel options home) will make the difference.
3. Sell the eve’s last 10% as “two nights.” An eve at 88.5% paired with a race night at 67.7% means there is ample capacity on race night to absorb a second night offered to the same guest. Re-presenting the eve’s single-night availability as a Nov 7–8 multi-night condition creates a structure where the eve’s remaining inventory fills race night at the same time. Given that a normal Sunday in Kita Ward runs 10–15pt below Saturday, Sunday vacancy is a chronic issue not limited to race weekends, and this two-night offer can serve as a trial for addressing it.
4. Also consider the shoulder nights, Fri Nov 6 and Mon Nov 9. Friday rose close in, from 55.5% at 45 days out to 76.3% at 9 days out, leaving room for overlapping demand from runners arriving early and from volunteers and race staff. If the eve is close to full, preparing multi-night stays that exclude the eve — two nights from Friday, or Sunday–Monday — provides somewhere to redirect inquiries that could not get the eve.
| Timing | Action | Decision trigger (tied to figures in this article) | Aim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today – Nov 3 (T-9 to T-5) | Overlay your own Nov 7 and Nov 8 curves on the market checkpoints (45 days out 80.7 / 57.5%, 30 days out 85.2 / 63.0%, latest 88.5 / 67.7%) and identify your gap on each night | If your race night is below the market’s 67.7%, make race night the main battleground | Prioritize the remaining 10 days |
| Today – Nov 3 (T-9 to T-5) | Offer an extra race-night stay (e.g., with late checkout) to guests already booked for the eve via booking-confirmation messages | If your eve is at or above the market (88% range) and your gap to race night is as wide as or wider than the market’s 20.8pt | Create a “reason to stay” on race night from existing guests |
| Today – Nov 3 (T-9 to T-5) | Also sell the eve’s remaining rooms under a “Nov 7–8 two-night” condition, showing both single-night and multi-night options | If about 10% of eve inventory remains and, given the market’s small gain of around +1pt over the last 10 days, you judge there is no need to rush single-night sales | Use eve inventory to fill race night at the same time |
| Nov 4 – 6 (T-3 to T-1) | Check race-night progress daily against how much a normal Sunday rises close in (Nov 1: 66.8% at 10 days out → 73.4% at 4 days out); if it is not rising, add rate conditions limited to race night (designed around late arrival and late departure) | If your Nov 8 has not reached the low 70s at 4 days out | Capture all of the close-in headroom |
| Nov 4 – 6 (T-3 to T-1) | For the eve’s final inventory, using as a yardstick the fact that a normal Saturday reached 91.5% at 3 days out, consider holding back a few rooms for last-minute requests (added companions, earlier arrivals) | If your eve is already above the market’s 88.5% | Optimize how the eve sells out |
| Nov 7 – 8 (race weekend) | At eve check-in, inform guests verbally and with signage whether and on what terms they can extend to race night, and be ready to accept same-day extension requests after the finish. Afterwards, compare race night’s final result with the September–October Sunday average of 79.5% and keep a record | As long as race night has rooms left | Prevent last-day misses and prepare for next year |
Source: Prepared by HotelBank Editorial Team. All trigger figures are the estimated OCC for Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types (N=31 properties) presented in this article
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading an Event Weekend
Ahead of the Okayama Marathon 2026, booking progress in Kita Ward, Okayama City shows the race eve of Saturday, November 7 at 80.7% at 45 days out → 88.5% at the latest reading, and race night, Sunday, November 8, at 57.5% → 67.7%, holding a gap of more than 20pt as the race comes within 10 days. The yardsticks this article used to read the weekend come down to three.
The first is “comparison with the weeks before and after at the same lead time,” which measures the race lift as a difference rather than a level. A lift of around +7pt for Saturday at 17 days out versus +1.7 to 5.5pt for Sunday at 18 days out shows that the race works completely differently on the eve and on race night. The second is “the close-in gain of a normal weekend”: October 31 (Sat) rising from 71.3% at 30 days out to 91.5% at 3 days out, and November 1 (Sun) from 66.8% at 10 days out to 73.4% at 4 days out, provide a benchmark for estimating how much headroom remains on race night’s current 67.7%. The third is “the normal day-of-week shape”: Kita Ward is a market where Sunday runs at 79.5%, about 10pt below Saturday, so race night’s low level reflects both a race-specific issue and the market’s baseline.
Applying these three to your own curve naturally sets the priorities for the remaining 10 days: how to sell the eve’s remaining inventory and how to create a “reason to stay” on race night. And since Sunday weakness is chronic, the results of this two-night offer and extension flow will also inform Sunday strategies for next year and beyond, not just for race weekends.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. When is the Okayama Marathon 2026, and when does lodging demand peak?
A. The race starts at 8:45 a.m. on Sunday, November 8, 2026, and runner check-in takes place only on the day before, Saturday, November 7. Because runners from afar arrive in Okayama on Saturday to check in, lodging demand is structurally concentrated on the Saturday race eve.
Q. How far along are bookings in Kita Ward, Okayama City for the race eve, Saturday, November 7?
A. Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) for Kita Ward, all property types (N=31 properties / 4,040 rooms) is 80.7% at 45 days out, 85.2% at 30 days out and 88.5% at 10 days out (as of October 29, 2026). The night was 80% committed at 45 days out, and the gain over the most recent 10 days is only about 1pt.
Q. Why is race night, Sunday, November 8, harder to fill?
A. Race night stands at 57.5% at 45 days out and 67.7% at 11 days out, more than 20pt below the eve throughout. Beyond the fact that staying another night after finishing is up to each runner, Kita Ward is a market where Sundays are weak to begin with: in the September–October day-of-week averages, Sunday is 79.5%, about 10pt below Saturday.
Q. How much does the marathon lift occupancy?
A. Compared at the same lead time, Saturday at 17 days out shows November 7 at 88.7% versus 81.3% for the previous Saturday (October 31) and 81.8% for the following Saturday (November 14), a race-eve lift of about 7pt. Sunday at 18 days out shows November 8 at 66.7% versus 61.2% for November 1 and 65.0% for November 15, so the race-night lift is only +1.7 to 5.5pt.
Q. What should hotels prioritize in the remaining 10 days?
A. With the eve already close to 90% full, the focus is race night. The three core actions are: offer an extra night to guests booked for the eve, also sell the eve’s remaining rooms as Nov 7–8 two-night stays, and add rate conditions limited to race night if November 8 has not reached the low 70s at 4 days out.
About the Data
| Estimated OCC | Occupancy based on OTA-listed inventory = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; N= in the text is the number of properties). This is an estimate based on how OTA-sold inventory is being absorbed and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it reads high because rooms not listed are counted as sold). Written in the text as “estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis).” |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest reading. Checkpoints are 45 days out, 30 days out and latest (the closest lead time observable for each stay date). |
| Day-of-week actuals | For each stay date from September 1 to October 28, 2026, estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) as of the day before the stay date, averaged simply by day of week. Covers 25–31 properties in Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types (varies by stay date). Includes Sundays and Mondays within holiday weekends. |
| Properties covered | Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types: N=31 properties / 4,040 rooms (30 properties / 4,030 rooms for Nov 14 and 15). Okayama Prefecture, business hotels: N=48 properties / 6,251 rooms. Both are fixed cohorts based on listings on major booking sites. |
| Race information | Race date, events, capacity, number of applicants and check-in schedule are based on materials published by Okayama Prefecture and Okayama City (see the references at the end of the article). |
| Data as of | Data as of: October 29, 2026. Sales status and inventory change daily, so the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research
■ Data Sources
Observation data on OTA-listed inventory and prices continuously collected by MetroEngines Research: booking curves by stay date for Kita Ward, Okayama City, all property types (fixed cohort of 31 properties / 4,040 rooms; 30 properties / 4,030 rooms for Nov 14 and 15) and Okayama Prefecture business hotels (48 properties / 6,251 rooms), and estimated OCC as of the day before each stay date for Kita Ward in September–October 2026. Race information is from materials published by Okayama Prefecture and Okayama City and the official race website.
■ Calculation Assumptions
Estimated OCC is calculated as 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Booking curves use only observations within 45 days of the stay date; points beyond 45 days are not used. The race lift is measured as the difference from the same weekday in the weeks before and after at the same lead time. Day-of-week actuals are simple averages of the values as of the day before each stay date (8–9 days per weekday).
■ Limitations and Caveats
Estimated OCC is an estimate based on how OTA sales inventory is being absorbed and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it reads high because rooms not listed are counted as sold). The figures are a snapshot as of October 29, 2026 and will change in the period remaining before the race. The lift is an observed difference and does not separate out factors other than the race (other events, business travel demand).
References and Sources
| Okayama Prefecture, “About the Okayama Marathon” (race outline, runner application results and upcoming schedule; prefectural press club materials) (Japanese) | pref.okayama.jp (PDF) |
| Okayama City press release, “Photo Panel Exhibition Looking Back on the Okayama Marathon” (stating that the 2026 race is the 10th edition; March 25, 2026) (Japanese) | city.okayama.jp (PDF) |
| Okayama Marathon official website (traffic restriction information for race day, Sunday, November 8) (Japanese) | okayamamarathon.jp |
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