At Izumo Taisha Grand Shrine, the 2026 Kamiari Festival opens with the Kamimukae Shinji and Kamimukae-sai (the rites welcoming the gods) at 7:00 p.m. on Wednesday, November 18, and runs until the Karasade-sai (the rite sending the gods off) at 4:00 p.m. on Wednesday, November 25 (Izumo Taisha, “2026 Izumo Taisha Festival Calendar”). For the night of the Kamimukae-sai itself, Izumo City had already reached an estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) of 100.0% and a share of properties with no visible listed inventory of 100.0% (N=50 properties, 1,447 rooms) as of the October 4 observation, 45 days before the stay date, and it never dipped below 99.7% through the latest observation on October 18, 31 days out. By contrast, the night before, Tuesday, November 17, was still filling, climbing +7.6pt from 85.7% at 45 days out to 93.3% at 30 days out, and neighboring Matsue City moved from 97.9% to 98.8% for November 18 (N=52 properties, 3,161 rooms), not as fully closed as Izumo. This article compares the booking curves of Izumo City and Matsue City for each stay date across the Kamiari Festival period (November 16-26) within a 45-day lead time, and maps out the opportunities for pre- and post-event stays and for referring guests to the neighboring city, from the angle of where the demand goes once Izumo City is closed out. Price levels are not covered; the analysis focuses on occupancy and inventory pickup.

Scope: Izumo City, all property types, N=49-54 properties (fixed cohort per stay date, approx. 1,420-1,470 rooms); Matsue City, all property types, N=51-53 properties (approx. 3,160-3,190 rooms); Shimane Prefecture business hotels, N=33 properties, 3,656 rooms. Occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory (estimated OCC), and the “sold-out property rate” is the estimated share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and similar channels. Both are defined at the end of the article. This article does not cover price metrics. Data as of October 19, 2026 (last observation date: October 18).

The Kamiari Festival Schedule — 2026 Rites Confirmed in the Official Festival Calendar

First, the schedule that frames the analysis. According to Izumo Taisha’s festival calendar, the 2026 Kamiari Festival rites are as listed below, and the Izumo Tourism Association also gives the festival period as Wednesday, November 18 to Wednesday, November 25. Kamiarizuki itself (the tenth month of the old lunar calendar) runs from Monday, November 9 to Tuesday, December 8, with the Second Karasade-sai on Friday, December 4. The tourism association expects congestion around Izumo Taisha during the festival and will publish traffic and parking availability information specifically for Thursday, November 19 and Saturday, November 21 through Monday, November 23, which is also a useful clue for reading where lodging demand peaks.

Source: Izumo Taisha, “2026 Izumo Taisha Festival Calendar”; Izumo Tourism Association, “About the Izumo Taisha Kamiari Festival” (see the references at the end of the article)

Izumo City Booking Curves — 11/18 Stayed at 100% from 45 Days Out to the Latest Observation

We start with Izumo City. The chart below overlays the build-up of estimated OCC from 45 days before the stay date to the latest observation for the night of the Kamimukae-sai (Wednesday, November 18), the night before (Tuesday, November 17), the day after (Thursday, November 19), and, for comparison, the Wednesday one week earlier (November 11) and two weeks earlier (November 4). November 18 started at 100.0% with a sold-out property rate of 100.0% at 45 days out (N=50 properties, 1,447 rooms) and was still at 100.0% and 100.0% on October 18, 31 days out; even its lowest point in the observation window, 37 days out, was 99.7% with a sold-out property rate of 98.0%. At the first observation on October 5, only the single 45-day point was available, but two further weeks of observation showed no inventory reopening, so it is fair to read the market as having locked shut at 45 days out.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The night before, Tuesday, November 17, by contrast, moved from 85.7% with a sold-out property rate of 48.1% at 45 days out (N=54 properties, 1,467 rooms) to 93.3% and 63.0% at 30 days out, adding +7.6pt in 15 days. With the sold-out property rate up +14.9pt, the spillover of demand onto the eve is still in progress, with properties closing out one after another. The day after, Thursday, November 19, stood at 99.7% and 94.2% at 45 days out and 99.0% and 94.2% at 32 days out, close to November 18 in level, but its sold-out property rate dipped to 90.2% at one point. When the sold-out property rate rises and falls while estimated OCC barely moves, it reflects individual properties opening and closing a few rooms, so the reopening of previously closed inventory happened on this day-after side. For the difference between what estimated OCC and the sold-out property rate measure, see Estimated OCC vs Sell-Out Rate: Tokyo Business 77.7% vs Capsule 93.8%.

Overlaying the two comparison Wednesdays makes the Kamimukae-sai stand out. The previous Wednesday, November 11, started high at 92.1% at 45 days out (N=52 properties) and reached 96.4% at 24 days out, but its sold-out property rate went from 44.2% to 65.4%, so a third of properties still have inventory. Wednesday, November 4, two weeks earlier, was at 66.5% at 45 days out, 78.3% at 30 days out, and 85.8% with a sold-out property rate of 47.2% at 17 days out: a normal weekday build-up. In other words, looking at mid-November Wednesdays in Izumo City at 30 days out, November 4 was at 78.3%, Tuesday, November 17 at 93.3%, and November 18 at 100.0%; only the night of the rite closes out on a different level altogether. For reference, September actuals put Izumo City’s monthly average estimated OCC at 91.7% (N=modal 52 properties, 32-54 depending on the day), and the holiday nights of September 20 and 21 reached 100.0% just before the stay date. Filling close to capacity at the last minute is not unusual in this city, but hitting 100% at 45 days out and staying there is a different pattern from a holiday weekend. How early the eve of a single-day event closes out in the same city is also covered in Izumo Ekiden 2026: Race-Eve OCC 98.8% at 45 Days Out.

The Whole Festival Period — Izumo Closes 11/18-22, Matsue Keeps Capacity from 11/23

Next, the chart below lines up estimated OCC at 45 days out for Izumo City and Matsue City for each stay date from Monday, November 16 to Thursday, November 26, a window widened around the festival period. In Izumo City, the five nights from November 18 to Sunday, November 22 had all reached 99.1% or higher at 45 days out, and Saturday, November 21 was at 100.0% with a sold-out property rate of 100.0% (N=51 properties), closed out the same way as the 18th. The holiday on Monday, November 23 was at 93.2%, Wednesday, November 25 (Karasade-sai) at 87.5%, and Thursday the 26th at 73.9%; once the peak of the rites passes, the market opens up step by step.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Matsue City looks different. With more than twice Izumo City’s room count (3,161 rooms), Matsue on November 18 stood at 97.9% with a sold-out property rate of 78.8% at 45 days out and 98.8% and 80.8% at 31 days out: high, but just under 20% of properties still have listed inventory. For the night before, November 17, estimated OCC rose +4.4pt from 89.1% to 93.5%, yet the sold-out property rate stayed flat at 42.3%, a pattern where rooms fill but properties do not close out. On Saturday, November 21 and Sunday the 22nd, Matsue was close to closing too, at 97.4% to 98.3% and 97.1% to 98.4%, but the holiday on November 23 moved from 79.9% to 83.1%, Tuesday the 24th from 82.9% to 85.0%, and Wednesday the 25th from 77.9% to 78.8%: Matsue City retains capacity for the second half of the festival. The table below summarizes both cities at 45 days out and at the latest observation.

Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory). Izumo City N=49-54 properties, Matsue City N=51-53 properties (fixed cohort per stay date). The latest observed lead time ranges from 17 to 39 days depending on the stay date. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Two points stand out in this table. First, after Izumo City closed out November 18-22, Matsue City still had inventory at 2.0% to 26.9% of properties on the same nights (19.2% to 26.9% on the weekdays of the 18th to 20th), so it can serve as an outlet for demand Izumo cannot absorb. Second, in the second half of the festival, November 23 with the Enmusubi Taisai and the 25th with the Karasade-sai saw sold-out property rates of only 80.0% and 67.9% even in Izumo City (96.2% on the 24th in between), leaving room in both cities to build demand from visitors targeting these rites.

Shimane Prefecture Business Hotels — On 11/18, Properties Open and Close While Rooms Keep Tightening

Izumo City’s business hotels alone do not have enough properties for a fixed cohort, so we check the property-type view with business hotels across Shimane Prefecture (N=33 properties, 3,656 rooms). For November 18, estimated OCC went from 88.7% with a sold-out property rate of 66.7% at 45 days out to 91.3% and 54.5% at 31 days out: estimated OCC tightened +2.6pt while the sold-out property rate fell 12.2pt. In a 33-property cohort, one property is worth about 3pt, so over two weeks the equivalent of four properties reopened inventory they had closed. The reopening of closed inventory that was not visible in Izumo City’s all-type figures was happening among business hotels prefecture-wide.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Against the surrounding dates, the night before, November 17, went from 78.0% to 84.9% (sold-out property rate 21.2% to 33.3%) and the day after, November 19, from 89.2% to 90.9% (54.5% to 48.5%), while the previous Wednesday, November 11, went from 83.7% to 88.4% and November 4, two Wednesdays earlier, from 57.8% to 70.2% (17 days out). The holiday on November 23 went from 72.4% to 74.9% and November 25 (Karasade-sai) from 68.7% to 71.3%, with sold-out property rates of only 15.2% and 15.2%, in the 10-20% range. From the business hotel perspective, festival demand concentrates on the two nights of November 18 and 19, after which pickup returns to something close to a normal weekday. For how Shimane business hotels build up in ordinary periods, Shimane Obon 2026: Only Aug 15-16 Dip shows cross-sections at 45, 30 and 14 days out.

For Revenue Managers of Hotels in Izumo and Matsue — Implications and Action Plan

Action Plan (Starting 30 Days Before November 18)

All decision-trigger figures are aggregates from this article (data as of October 19, 2026). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Kamiari Festival Demand

Putting the Izumo City and Matsue City booking curves for the Kamiari Festival period together, three yardsticks emerge. The first is whether a date is closed at 45 days out: Izumo City on November 18 and 21 reached an estimated OCC of 100.0% and a sold-out property rate of 100.0% at 45 days out, and no inventory reopened over the following two weeks. The second is how much room is left to build on the adjacent nights: the night before, November 17, was at 93.3% at 30 days out and the day after, November 19, at 99.0%; the levels differ, but by sold-out property rate, 37.0% and 5.8% of properties respectively still have inventory. The third is the sold-out property rate of the neighboring city: Matsue City stayed at 80.8% even on November 18, so it can absorb demand Izumo cannot. Because both cities retain room to build from November 23 onward, after the peak of the rites, the properties that closed out on the 18th have the most to gain from building their sales around three opportunity frames: pre- and post-event stays, the later rites, and referrals to the neighboring city.

About the Data

References and Sources