Under the official government calendar, Japan’s 2026-27 year-end and New Year holiday runs six days, from Tuesday, December 29 to Sunday, January 3. The two days before it, Saturday, December 26 and Sunday, December 27, fall on a weekend, leaving just one working day in between: Monday, December 28. In other words, anyone who takes December 28 off gets a nine-day break from December 26 to January 3. Last time (2025-26), the holiday ran nine days from Saturday, December 27 to Sunday, January 4 with no leave required. This time, whether travelers take “one day off or not” splits the break into six days or nine — and that is the starting point for demand planning.

This article takes a snapshot as of October 4, 83 days before the December 26 stay date (T-83), and lays out year-end sales planning for hotel and ryokan operators. There are three key points. First, booking pace on inventory can only be read from 45 days before the stay date, i.e. from November 11. Second, over the most recent major holidays (Obon and the five-day September holiday), city hotels added 27–38pt of occupancy in the final 45 days, whereas resorts and ryokan had already reached the 60–70% range 45 days out for Obon and 80–90% for the September holiday. Third, at current listed prices, city hotels are pricing Monday, December 28 at roughly normal levels, while resorts and ryokan are pricing it 10–20% higher. From these three points, we work out “when, and which nights” each segment should plan for.

A Calendar Where “One Day Off Makes Nine” — Inventory Becomes Readable in Sequence from Nov 11 to Nov 19

Let us first confirm the calendar and the observation schedule worked back from it. By law, government administrative holidays run from December 29 to January 3, so the last government working day is Monday, December 28, and work resumes on Monday, January 4. Private-sector leave varies by company, but this calendar is the basic shape of the year-end holiday.

However, inventory movements earlier than 45 days before the stay date include periods before properties have finished loading their sales allotments, so they may not reflect actual booking progress. This article therefore limits its reading of inventory absorption to the window from 45 days out to the day before. Applying that rule, inventory for the December 26 night becomes readable on November 11, New Year’s Eve (December 31) on November 16, and the final night of the break (January 3) on November 19.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Cabinet Office, “National Holidays” and the Act on Holidays of Administrative Organs

Put differently, the current T-83 position is the stage where “booking progress on inventory cannot yet be read, but prices and plans are coming onto the market.” Whether year-end booking pace is fast or slow can only be discussed from mid-November; the roughly five weeks until then are best treated as the time to prepare the yardstick you will compare against once reading begins. Note that inventory observation began in March 2026, so a comparison with last year’s year-end holiday at the same lead times is not possible. This article therefore uses the two most recent major holidays, observed to completion on the same basis, as yardsticks.

Yardstick 1: The September Five-Day Holiday — City Hotels at 60–70% 45 Days Out, Resorts and Ryokan at 80–90%

The first yardstick is the five-day holiday of September 2026 (Sep 19–23). For the night of Sunday, September 20, the second night of the break, we lined up occupancy (estimated, based on OTA-listed inventory) from 45 days out to the day before, by segment, across seven prefectures.

Figure 1: Booking curve for the night of Sun, Sep 20 (45 days out → day before, occupancy, estimated)

Coverage: Tokyo business 553 properties / 80,405 rooms, Osaka business 293 properties / 48,402 rooms, Nagano resorts 62 properties / 4,256 rooms, Hokkaido ryokan 174 properties / 7,234 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). Source: MetroEngines, Inc.; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Tokyo business hotels (553 properties / 80,405 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites) were at 65.4% 45 days out, rising to 74.8% at 30 days out and 88.6% at 14 days out, and reaching 98.0% the day before. That is a 32.6pt gain over 45 days. Osaka business hotels (293 properties / 48,402 rooms) climbed 38.4pt from 61.6% to 100.0%, and Kyoto business hotels (197 properties / 19,892 rooms) added 27.2pt from 72.8% to 100.0%.

By contrast, Nagano resort hotels (62 properties / 4,256 rooms) were already at 90.2% 45 days out and Hokkaido ryokan (174 properties / 7,234 rooms) at 93.2% — above 90% at the start of the observation window. Their gains through the day before were only 8.5pt and 6.4pt respectively. Even on the same night of the same holiday, city hotels were a market where “around 30% moves in the final 45 days,” while resorts and ryokan were a market where “most of it is settled by 45 days out.”

Properties / rooms are based on listings on major booking sites (properties listing at least 30% of total rooms). In Shizuoka, some inventory came back between 7 days out and the day before. Source: MetroEngines, Inc.; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Yardstick 2: Obon — City Hotels’ “About 30% in the Final 45 Days” Holds Across Holidays

With the September holiday alone, it remains possible that the pattern was peculiar to that particular break. So as a second yardstick, we lined up the Obon night of Friday, August 14 in the same way. As a period when homecoming trips and leisure travel overlap, it is the holiday closest in character to the year-end break.

Properties / rooms are based on listings on major booking sites (properties listing at least 30% of total rooms). Source: MetroEngines, Inc.; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Gains for city business hotels were +32.0pt in Tokyo, +31.8pt in Osaka and +28.9pt in Kyoto. These fall in almost the same band as the September holiday’s +32.6pt, +38.4pt and +27.2pt, so the pattern that “city hotels move 27–38pt in the final 45 days” held across both holidays.

Resorts and ryokan, on the other hand, looked different depending on the holiday. Levels that were 81.3–93.2% 45 days out for the September holiday stood at only 65.6–78.9% for Obon, and the gains in the final 45 days were larger, at 16.7–29.6pt. Resorts and ryokan filled earlier than city hotels both times, but how much earlier varies. Which of the two patterns the year-end holiday resembles will have to be checked once inventory becomes readable in mid-November.

Figure 2: Occupancy gain from 45 days out to the day before (pt) — Obon night of Aug 14 vs. September holiday night of Sep 20

Properties and room counts are the same as in Tables 2 and 3 (based on listings on major booking sites). Source: MetroEngines, Inc.; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The Holiday’s “Shoulder Nights” — The Eve and the Final Night Fill in the Last Two Weeks

Looking only at the middle of a holiday makes it easy to overlook the nights with the most room for sales planning. Laying out the September five-day holiday night by night, the eve (Friday, Sep 18) and the final night (Wednesday, Sep 23, a national holiday) were a step lower in day-before occupancy than the mid-holiday night of Sep 20.

Figure 3: Seven nights around the September five-day holiday — day-before occupancy (estimated, based on OTA-listed inventory)

Coverage (Sep 20 night): Tokyo business 553 properties / 80,405 rooms, Osaka business 293 properties / 48,402 rooms, Nagano ryokan 280 properties / 6,631 rooms, Hokkaido resorts 92 properties / 9,762 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). Source: MetroEngines, Inc.; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Same population as Table 2 (based on listings on major booking sites). Kyoto ryokan: 119 properties / 2,261 rooms for the Sep 20 night. Source: MetroEngines, Inc.; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Tokyo business hotels were at 98.0% on the mid-holiday night versus 81.0% on the final night, a 17.0pt gap; for Osaka business hotels the gap widened to 33.8pt, at 100.0% versus 66.2%. Shoulder nights, however, are simply slower to start moving — they still have room to grow close in. Over the two weeks from 14 days out to the day before, the final night of Sep 23 gained 21.3pt for Kyoto ryokan, 14.9pt for Nagano ryokan and 14.1pt for Tokyo business hotels.

Mapping this structure onto this year’s year-end holiday, the shoulder nights are Sunday, December 27, Monday, December 28, and Sunday, January 3. December 28 in particular is two-sided: for those taking leave it is the third night of the break, and for those who are not, it is the night of a working day. Whether to sell it the same way as the mid-holiday nights or to design it as a “bridge” for multi-night stays looks set to decide whether a property can capture nine-day-break travelers.

Listed Prices at T-83 — City Hotels Price Dec 28 at Normal Levels, Resorts and Ryokan 10–20% Higher

Inventory cannot be read yet, but prices are already on the market. Limiting the sample to properties with a listed price on all 11 nights from Friday, December 25 to Monday, January 4, we took each property’s December 25 listed price as 100 and calculated the median index, split into city hotels (business and city hotels) and resorts and ryokan. This is an interim snapshot of how the market currently views each night.

Figure 4: Year-end listed-price index (Dec 25 = 100, listed levels as of the Oct 4 survey)

N = Tokyo city hotels 942 properties, Osaka city hotels 568, Nagano resorts & ryokan 265, Shizuoka resorts & ryokan 268. Median of property-level indices of listed price (all-plan average, tax-inclusive). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

N is the number of properties with a listed price on all 11 nights. City = business hotels and city hotels; resorts & ryokan = resort hotels and ryokan. Resorts & ryokan in Tokyo and Osaka are omitted because N is small. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

City hotels show a single concentrated peak on New Year’s Eve. Tokyo (N=942) is at 130.1 on December 31, then falls to 104.3 on New Year’s Day, 93.8 on January 2 and 70.1 on January 3. Osaka (N=568) likewise peaks at 133.8 on December 31 and drops back to 84.7 by January 3. In contrast, Shizuoka resorts and ryokan (N=268) sit on a plateau, at 159.8 on both December 31 and New Year’s Day and 151.7 on January 2, and still hold 124.8 on January 3. Resorts and ryokan in Nagano (N=265), Hokkaido (N=235) and Okinawa (N=271) also show a sustained peak from December 31 through January 2.

The point to watch is how Monday, December 28 is treated. City hotels are pricing it at roughly the December 25 level: 103.4 in Tokyo and 100.0 in Osaka. Kyoto city hotels (N=366), however, are at 125.7, relatively high for the city segment. Resorts and ryokan, meanwhile, have already set levels 10–20% higher: 122.1 in Shizuoka, 115.9 in Kyoto and 115.1 in Nagano. The reading is that resorts and ryokan see December 28 as part of the year-end holiday, while city hotels treat it as an ordinary Monday. Note that this index is not day-of-week adjusted, so it captures how each night is priced relative to December 25 rather than the full daily price structure.

Monthly Estimated Settled ADR — December Above Last Year in Tokyo and Hokkaido, January Positive in All Seven Areas

For an overall sense of price levels, we look at monthly estimated settled ADR. December 2026 and January 2027 are estimates based on listed levels at the time of the survey, while the prior-year months are settled figures. Because the bases differ, year-on-year changes are best read as a directional reference.

N is the number of properties included in the estimated settled ADR calculation. December 2026 and January 2027 are estimates based on listed levels as of the survey (Oct 4) and will change. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

In December, Tokyo at ¥17,500 (+10.6% YoY) and Hokkaido at ¥12,300 (+31.0%) are above last year, while Osaka at ¥10,700 (−3.9%), Kyoto at ¥17,400 (−2.7%) and Shizuoka at ¥14,100 (−9.2%) are below. In Hokkaido the number of properties covered changed from 875 to 822 for December and from 885 to 730 for January, so these figures should be read as including differences in which properties keep listing through winter. In January, all seven areas are up year on year, in a range of +1.3% (Okinawa) to +26.2% (Hokkaido). On a monthly view, prices for the two months spanning the year-end holiday are coming in at or above last year’s levels.

Implications for Operators — Different “Make-or-Break Periods” by Segment, and Three Shoulder Nights

Putting this together, the timing on which year-end sales planning should focus differs by segment. What follows is a framework built using measurements from two holidays as yardsticks; it does not indicate that the year-end holiday will behave the same way. We have arranged it so it can serve as a benchmark when you begin reading your own inventory in mid-November.

Source: MetroEngines, Inc.; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

For city hotels, the effective approach is to capture the movement in the final 45 days without rushing. In the last two holidays, occupancy that was 50–70% 45 days out grew to around 90% or full by the day before. Rather than moving rates all the way early, checking inventory progress at each milestone — 30, 14 and 7 days out — and adjusting prices in steps creates the opportunity to turn the New Year’s Eve concentration into even more revenue. In addition, December 28, currently priced at normal levels by many properties, is worth considering as upside from welcoming nine-day-break travelers on multi-night stays.

For resorts and ryokan, now — before inventory becomes readable — is the core of the planning work. The plateau from December 31 to January 2 is already priced in, so the room for growth is likely at both ends of the plateau: December 27–28 and January 3. In the September holiday, some ryokan areas saw the final night gain about 15–21pt in the last two weeks. Pricing the shoulder nights separately from the mid-holiday nights and preparing plans that build them in as the last night of a multi-night stay should make it easier to absorb close-in demand.

One more thing to keep in mind is policy milestones. In Kyushu, the cutoff of the period covered by the lodging discount program affects travelers’ net costs from December 26 onward. In ski areas, the total daily cost of lift tickets plus lodging becomes travelers’ basis for comparison. And because Christmas Eve 2026 falls on a Thursday, pricing around Christmas is also worth checking against the regular weekday pattern.

Summary — In a Period You Cannot Read Yet, Prepare the Yardstick for When You Can

The 2026-27 year-end holiday splits into six or nine days depending on whether travelers take Monday, December 28 off. Compared with years like last time, when the calendar alone produced a nine-day break, demand in the first half of the break (December 26–28) is more dependent on travelers taking leave. Even in current listed prices, city hotels and resorts/ryokan read December 28 differently.

Booking pace on inventory becomes readable from November 11 to November 19. As yardsticks for that moment, we have presented measurements from the two most recent major holidays. City hotels consistently sat at 50–70% 45 days out and built up 27–38pt from there, while resorts and ryokan filled earlier than city hotels, at the 60–70% range 45 days out for Obon and 80–90% for the September holiday. Shoulder nights have room to grow substantially in the final two weeks. T-83 is not the time to draw conclusions but the time to get the plan in order. When the observation window opens in mid-November, hold your own property’s progress up against these yardsticks.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. How long is the 2026-27 year-end and New Year holiday?
A. Government administrative holidays run six days, from Tuesday, December 29 to Sunday, January 3. Because Saturday, December 26 and Sunday, December 27 fall on the weekend just before, taking Monday, December 28 off creates a nine-day break from December 26 to January 3. Last time (2025-26), the break ran nine days from Saturday, December 27 to Sunday, January 4 without taking any leave.

Q. From when can year-end booking pace be read?
A. This article reads inventory absorption only from 45 days before the stay date to the day before. On that basis, reading can begin on November 11 for the December 26 night, November 16 for the December 31 night and November 19 for the January 3 night. As of October 4 (T-83), prices and plans are still coming onto the market.

Q. How do city hotels and resorts/ryokan differ in how they fill?
A. Measured on the nights of September 20 and August 14, 2026, business hotels in Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto added 27–38pt in the final 45 days. Resorts and ryokan were at 81.3–93.2% 45 days out for the September holiday and 65.6–78.9% for Obon, filling earlier than city hotels (estimates based on OTA-listed inventory). This does not indicate that the year-end holiday will follow the same path.

Q. How is Monday, December 28 priced right now?
A. In the listed-price index as of the October 4 survey (each property’s December 25 = 100, median), Tokyo city hotels are at 103.4 and Osaka city hotels at 100.0, roughly normal levels. Resorts and ryokan are 10–20% higher: 122.1 in Shizuoka, 115.9 in Kyoto and 115.1 in Nagano. Listed prices will change with future price adjustments.

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