The 120th Nagano Ebisuko Fireworks Festival (長野えびす講煙火大会), which closes out autumn in Nagano City, will launch about 10,000 shells from 18:00 on Monday, November 23, 2026 (a national holiday), at Saigawa No. 2 Green Space (犀川第2緑地) on the west side of Nagano Ohashi Bridge. This year the festival falls on Labor Thanksgiving Day, the final day of a three-day weekend starting Saturday, November 21. HotelBank Editorial Team reviewed booking curves for Nagano City lodging (all property types, N=45–48 properties / 2,380–2,441 rooms, based on major booking-site listings) as of October 25. Estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis) for fireworks night, November 23, had reached 80.9% at 45 days before the stay and 87.4% at 30 days, above the 83.3% (T-30) for the middle night of the holiday, Sunday, November 22. In most areas the last night of a holiday weekend usually runs below the first and middle nights, and at the same T-30 snapshot business hotels in Aichi were at only 58.6% and in Miyagi at 51.3%. This article looks not at prices but at the progress of estimated OCC and the sold-out share, to show when and in which property types fireworks-night demand built up, and what to watch over the remaining four weeks.

Scope: lodging facilities in Nagano City (municipal level), all property types N=45–48 properties / 2,380–2,441 rooms, of which business hotels N=13 properties / 1,602 rooms and ryokan N=15–17 properties / 145–191 rooms (fixed cohorts per stay date, so counts vary by date). Price metrics in this article are the estimated settled ADR (settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent, monthly); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of October 25, 2026 (latest observation date: October 24).

Fireworks night, November 23 — from 80.9% at T-45 to 87.4% at T-30, running above the middle night

First, the booking curves for the four nights of the Ebisuko weekend across all property types in Nagano City. At 45 days before each stay, the first holiday night, Saturday the 21st, was at 86.1%; the middle night, Sunday the 22nd, at 75.0%; fireworks night, Monday the 23rd (holiday), at 80.9%; and Tuesday the 24th at 62.4%. Saturday being highest matches the normal Nagano City weekend shape, but the notable point is that the final night (23rd) is 5.9pt above the middle night (22nd). Pickup from T-45 to the latest observation was +7.4pt for the 21st (93.5% at T-28), +9.0pt for the 22nd (84.0% at T-29), +6.5pt for the 23rd (87.4% at T-30) and +5.8pt for the 24th (68.2% at T-31), all building at roughly 3–4pt per week; fireworks night is not picking up unusually fast. In other words, the high level for the night comes from bookings that were already heavy at T-45, not from a reversal driven by last-minute bookings over the past four weeks. This pattern, where event-day demand settles before it even enters the observation window, matches the Miyagi case we examined in Event demand was settled at T-45 — Miyagi, Jozenji Street Jazz Festival 2026.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

For reference, the same weekdays one week earlier: Saturday the 14th was at 92.4% at T-45 and 95.7% at the latest observation (T-21), close to full; Sunday the 15th moved from 73.5% to 77.9%, and Monday the 16th from 68.4% to 78.5%. While the prior-week Sunday (15th) and the holiday middle night (22nd) were almost level at T-45 (73.5% vs. 75.0%), the ordinary Monday the 16th was at 68.4% and the holiday final day (23rd) at 80.9%, a 12.5pt gap. That gap is a rough measure of the uplift created by the fireworks coinciding with a national holiday.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The sold-out share (estimated share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and other channels) tells a different story. For the first night (21st), sold-out properties rose steadily from 39.6% at T-45 to 58.3% at the latest observation, whereas for fireworks night (23rd) it was 28.3% both at T-45 and at the latest observation. Estimated OCC rose 6.5pt without any increase in sold-out properties, which means bookings for the night did not concentrate in particular properties that sold out, but spread thinly across the just over 70% of properties that still had inventory. Within the same holiday weekend, the absorption pattern differs: the first night is in a phase of more properties selling out, while fireworks night is in a phase where the market as a whole fills up but sell-outs have yet to spread.

It is worth establishing the normal day-of-week shape here. In actual results for elapsed months across all property types in Nagano City, estimated OCC averaged a high 96.4% for October 1–25 (N=41–47 properties / 2,387–2,468 rooms); by day of week, Sunday was 92.1% and Monday 92.9% versus 96.9–99.5% for Tuesday through Saturday, making Sunday and Monday the weekly trough. September also averaged 92.5% (N=36–46 properties / 2,312–2,428 rooms), with Sunday lowest at 88.9%. Given that Monday is normally a trough, the fact that Monday, November 23, is already above the middle Sunday at T-30 is itself evidence of a demand lift from the fireworks.

Business hotels — 90.3% for the night, 9.0pt above the middle night, but sell-outs have not spread

Next, by property type. Nagano City business hotels (N=13 properties / 1,602 rooms) account for two-thirds of all rooms and drive the shape of the curve. Estimated OCC at T-45 was 83.6% for Saturday the 21st, 69.7% for Sunday the 22nd, 82.3% for Monday the 23rd (holiday) and 57.6% for Tuesday the 24th, with fireworks night 12.6pt above the middle night. By T-30 these had moved to 92.4%, 81.3% and 90.3%. The middle night picked up the most (+11.6pt), narrowing the gap to 9.0pt, but fireworks night still ranks above the middle night. The night is higher for business hotels than for all types (87.4% at T-30), consistent with their city-center locations being an easy choice for independent travelers coming for the fireworks.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

With N=13, one property moves the sold-out share by 7.7pt, so caution is needed, but the direction is clear. For the first night (21st), listed inventory disappeared at more than half of properties, from 23.1% at T-45 to 53.8% at the latest observation, and the middle night (22nd) also rose from 7.7% to 23.1%. For fireworks night (23rd), by contrast, the share fell from 15.4% to 7.7%: properties that had been sold out resumed sales, and at the latest observation only 1 of 13 properties is sold out. Estimated OCC at 90% with only one sold-out property shows that the remaining inventory of just under 10% is spread across nearly every property. Rooms left for the night are not concentrated in one hotel but sit as a few rooms at each, so each hotel’s last-minute selling will directly determine where the market as a whole lands.

As a supplementary check, ryokan (N=15–17 properties / 145–191 rooms) show a different shape from business hotels. Ryokan are strong in the first half of the weekend: the 21st at 86.4% at T-45 and 89.0% latest (T-28), the 22nd at 74.9% and 81.2% (T-29). But fireworks night (23rd) only went from 61.4% to 65.8% (T-30), below the following night, the 24th, at 71.0%. Room counts are small, so we avoid firm conclusions, but fireworks-night demand appears to favor hotels suited to a watch-the-fireworks-in-town-and-go-home-next-morning itinerary, and is not reaching onsen-stay ryokan with the same strength.

Comparison with other areas — only Nagano City sees the final night beat the middle night

To measure how unusual Nagano City’s shape is, we compare business-hotel curves for the same November 21–23 weekend in Nagano Prefecture as a whole, Aichi and Miyagi. At the T-30 snapshot, estimated OCC on the final night (23rd) relative to the middle night (22nd) was 90.3% vs. 81.3% for Nagano City business hotels (ratio 1.11) and 87.4% vs. 83.3% for Nagano City all types (ratio 1.05), with the final night higher. By contrast, Nagano Prefecture business hotels (N=80 properties / 7,560 rooms) were at 69.2% vs. 78.1% (0.89), Aichi business hotels (N=173 properties / 26,232 rooms) at 58.6% vs. 73.8% (0.79) and Miyagi business hotels (N=61 properties / 8,976 rooms) at 51.3% vs. 81.5% (0.63), all with a clear drop on the final night. Because the last night of a three-day weekend is a travel-home day, it normally runs 9–30pt below the middle night; Nagano City is an exception to that rule. Nagano Prefecture itself saw the final day of the October Sports Day weekend fall well below the first day (see Nagano Oct 3-Day Weekend: Final Night at 69.1% OCC), so this time the shape also differs from the prefecture’s usual pattern.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The gap with Nagano Prefecture as a whole is telling. Even for prefecture-level business hotels, which include Nagano City, the final night is 8.9pt below the middle night, so other cities in the prefecture keep the usual final-night drop. In other words, the fireworks lift is concentrated in central Nagano City; it is localized demand on a scale that gets buried in prefecture-wide figures. It only becomes visible when the curve is cut at the municipal level, a case showing that prefecture-level indicators are too coarse for capturing event demand. For an October 9 snapshot of the same November 21–23 weekend across five prefectures by property type, see Nov 21–23 Foliage Weekend: Kyoto Ryokan 18% Rooms Left, Nagano 32%.

Price context — estimated settled ADR for Nagano Prefecture business hotels was +11.6% YoY in final September data

Pricing is not the focus of this article, but as background for reading the strength of occupancy we check monthly estimated settled ADR. For Nagano Prefecture business hotels (N=168 properties), estimated settled ADR for September 2026 (final) was ¥8,600, +11.6% versus ¥7,700 in September 2025 (N=162 properties). Across January–September, YoY changes ranged from +2.9% (June) to +11.6% (September), positive in every month, with August at ¥9,500 (+3.3% YoY) the annual peak and September the second highest. November 2025 was ¥7,800 (N=161 properties, final), a reference level for the month that includes Ebisuko. Daily prices for fireworks night are outside the scope here, but the combination of monthly rates continuing to run above last year and fireworks-night occupancy well above a normal holiday final night suggests that late November in Nagano City has room to beat last year on both rate and occupancy.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Landing scenarios for fireworks night — absorption of remaining rooms and rate × occupancy sensitivity

Here we turn these observations into decisions for the remaining four weeks. Nagano City business hotels (N=13 properties / 1,602 rooms) were at 90.3% estimated OCC for fireworks night (23rd) at T-30 (observed October 24, 2026), leaving about 155 rooms in the market (1,602 rooms × 9.7%). How many of these are absorbed by the night splits the outcome into three cases. The table below assumes a 100-room property lands at the same occupancy as the market and fixes the rate at the November 2025 estimated settled ADR for Nagano Prefecture business hotels (¥7,824, final), giving an indicative room revenue per night. The actual rate on fireworks night should be above the monthly average, but since this article does not cover daily prices, the final monthly figure is used as the yardstick.

Estimated OCC is an estimate based on OTA listed inventory. Room revenue = estimated settled ADR ¥7,824 (Nagano Prefecture business hotels, final November 2025 value, tax-excluded equivalent, N=161 properties) × landing OCC × 100 rooms; an illustrative calculation that differs from actual sales and accounting figures. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The spread across the three scenarios is at most about ¥57,115 per 100 rooms. On a night already above 90% occupancy, even selling every remaining room adds only a small number of rooms. Laying rate and occupancy out on two axes makes this relationship clearer. The shaded cell in the table below is the baseline (last November’s rate at 90% occupancy). Raising rate by 10% and landing at 90% occupancy (¥7,745) beats holding rate and selling through to 96% occupancy (¥7,511). In the current situation, with only 1 of 13 properties sold out and a few rooms left at each hotel, protecting the rate on remaining rooms tends to make more sense for revenue than filling the last few rooms with discounts.

Rate × occupancy = estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent) × estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis, assumed landing value). An illustrative figure used as a RevPAR guide; it differs from actual room revenue. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

For revenue managers of business and city hotels in Nagano City — implications and action plan

Summary — three yardsticks for measuring event demand on a holiday final night

The first is the final night ÷ middle night ratio. On T-30 estimated OCC, Nagano City business hotels were at 1.11 and all types at 1.05, above 1, while Nagano Prefecture overall (0.89), Aichi (0.79) and Miyagi (0.63) were all below 1. When this ratio exceeds 1, the event itself, rather than the day of week or position in the holiday, can be judged to be creating demand. The second is the combination of the T-45 level and the size of pickup. The 23rd was high at 80.9% at T-45, and pickup of +6.5pt was similar to the other nights. For event demand that books early and heavily, the position at T-45 determines the result more than any hoped-for last-minute rush. The third is the gap between estimated OCC and the sold-out share. Estimated OCC at 90% with just one sold-out property means inventory remains spread out, and each hotel’s remaining-room strategy will shape where the market lands. On the night of the Nagano Ebisuko Fireworks Festival, all three yardsticks point to a strong but not sold-out market. Over the remaining four weeks, the question is not to take comfort in high numbers but how to sell the scattered remaining rooms.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. When and where is the Nagano Ebisuko Fireworks Festival 2026 held?

A. The 120th festival will be held from 18:00 on Monday, November 23, 2026 (national holiday), at Saigawa No. 2 Green Space on the west side of Nagano Ohashi Bridge, with about 10,000 shells. It falls on Labor Thanksgiving Day, the last day of the three-day weekend starting Saturday, November 21.

Q. How strong is lodging demand in Nagano City on fireworks night, November 23?

A. As observed on October 24, 2026 (30 days before the stay), estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis) was 87.4% for all property types in Nagano City and 90.3% for business hotels, both above the middle night of the holiday, the 22nd (83.3% and 81.3%). The final night of a three-day weekend usually runs below the middle night, so this reads as a fireworks uplift.

Q. Is the holiday final night above the middle night in other areas too?

A. Comparing final night ÷ middle night for business hotels at the same T-30 snapshot, Nagano Prefecture overall was 0.89, Aichi 0.79 and Miyagi 0.63, all below 1. Only Nagano City exceeded 1 (business 1.11, all types 1.05).

Q. Why are so few properties sold out when estimated OCC is above 90%?

A. For the 23rd, business hotels are at 90.3% estimated OCC (observed October 24, 2026), but only 1 of 13 properties is sold out; the remaining inventory of just under 10% is spread as a few rooms at almost every property. Rather than particular properties selling out, the market as a whole is filling thinly and broadly.

Q. What should revenue managers check over the remaining four weeks?

A. Compare your own occupancy for November 21–24 with the market T-30 snapshot (business: 92.4% on the 21st, 81.3% on the 22nd, 90.3% on the 23rd), and if the 23rd is well below, review visibility and sales conditions. If sell-outs start to spread on the night itself, tighten conditions on remaining rooms, and there is room to spread demand to the shoulder nights with conditions that make two-night stays (22nd–23rd, 23rd–24th) easy to book.

About the Data

References and Sources