Kagoshima City’s 75th Ohara Festival, which closes out the city’s autumn, consists of the Night Festival on Monday, November 2, 2026 and the Main Festival on Tuesday, November 3 (a national holiday), held along the tram street through Tenmonkan. Tracking the booking curves of Kagoshima City accommodation (based on listings on major booking sites; N=63–64 properties / 5,133–5,157 rooms) for the four nights from Saturday, October 31 to Tuesday, November 3 — which include both festival days — from 45 days before the stay date to the latest observation (October 19), the first night of the holiday weekend, October 31, had reached an estimated OCC of 98.2%, while November 2, the night of the Night Festival, stood at only 74.7% and November 3, the night of the Main Festival, at 57.6%. The festival’s centerpiece, the sodori mass dance, takes place in Tenmonkan during the Night Festival on November 2 and the daytime Main Festival on November 3; because daytime viewing in particular is easy to complete as a day trip, the numbers show a structure that does not readily translate into overnight demand. This article compares the curves for these four nights at fixed points and sets out, for revenue managers running business and city hotels in Kagoshima City, how to fill the inventory remaining on the festival night and the final holiday night over the last two weeks.

Coverage: Kagoshima City accommodation, N=63–64 properties / 5,133–5,157 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites; varies by stay date); business hotels, N=32–33 properties / 3,935–3,959 rooms. The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data; tax-excluded equivalent; Kagoshima Prefecture; monthly), and occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of October 21, 2026 (latest booking-curve observation: October 19).

Ohara Festival 2026 schedule — the Night Festival falls on a weekday Monday, the Main Festival in the daytime of a holiday

First, let us confirm how the festival is structured. According to Kagoshima Prefecture’s official guide, the Night Festival runs on Monday, November 2 from 18:50 to 20:20 (until 20:30 according to Kagoshima City’s guide) with the sodori mass dance and the Ogojo Taiko drum contest, and the Main Festival runs on Tuesday, November 3 (a national holiday) from 10:20 to 15:25 in four parts: the sodori dance, a marching band segment, a dance segment and “Ohara 21”. The venue is the stretch of the Tenmonkan tram street from the Sanbashi-dori intersection through Izuro to the Takamibaba intersection, and viewing is free. Timed with Part 3 of the Main Festival and marking the 200th anniversary of Saigo Takamori’s birth and the 150th of his death, a “Saigo-don Lookalike Contest” is also scheduled at Centerrace Square.

From the standpoint of overnight demand, what matters is that the Night Festival falls on a weekday Monday evening and the Main Festival in the daytime of a holiday. Spectators who have finished watching the Main Festival on November 3 have little reason to stay in Kagoshima City that night, and for tourists from outside the prefecture November 3 is the last day of the holiday weekend — the day they head home. On the other hand, visitors from outside the prefecture who come to watch the Night Festival on November 2 have a reason to stay in the city that night, and November 2 — a Monday that is the eve of a holiday, which would otherwise carry only weekday-type demand — is the one night on which festival-driven demand can be stacked on top. Let us check this structure against the booking curves.

Booking curves for the four nights — 98.2% on the first night of the holiday versus 74.7% on the festival night and 57.6% on the final holiday night

The table below lines up, for all properties in Kagoshima City (N=63–64 properties / 5,133–5,157 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites), the curves for the four nights from October 31 to November 3 — plus, for comparison, the following Saturday, November 7 — at three fixed points: 45 days out, 30 days out and the latest observation (October 19, i.e. 12–19 days before the stay date).

Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) · Kagoshima City, all properties, N=63–64 properties / 5,133–5,157 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). Sold-out property share = share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and other channels (estimate). Observed from 45 days before each stay date through October 19. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

October 31, the first night of the holiday, built from 74.8% at 45 days out to 84.7% at 30 days out and 98.2% at the latest observation, with the sold-out property share reaching 82.5%. October results tell the same story: Saturday, October 10 landed at 98.0% and October 17 at 97.9%, so this autumn’s pattern is for Kagoshima City Saturdays to fill into the high 90s over the final two weeks. October 31 follows that pattern — it is, in effect, a “Saturday that sells out”.

By contrast, November 2, the day of the Night Festival, moved from 58.4% at 45 days out to 62.8% at 30 days out and 74.7% at 14 days out, leaving a 23.5pt gap to October 31 at the latest observation. What matters here, however, is less the size of the gap than the shape of the curve: November 2 is moving at almost the same level and slope as November 1, the middle of the holiday (74.0% at 13 days out). For a Monday stay date this is clearly high, and it compares well with the September average for Mondays of 78.9%. In other words, the festival night is not a “night that won’t fill” but a night on which “pre-holiday demand has come in and festival-driven demand has not yet fully stacked on top”.

The Main Festival night of November 3 looks different. It barely moved over a month, from 48.8% at 45 days out to 48.9% at 30 days out, and even at the latest observation it was at 57.6% — the only one of the four nights below 60%. The sold-out property share was just 3.1%, so inventory across the city is still wide open. The structure of spectators heading home the same evening after watching the festival shows up directly as a flat curve. How the middle and final nights of a three-night festival fill differently can also be seen in Nagasaki Kunchi 2026: Oct 8 Biz Hotel OCC 88.8%, Final Night 76.6%, which shows the same pattern.

Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) · Kagoshima City, all properties, N=63–64 properties / 5,133–5,157 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). The X axis is days remaining until the stay date (45 → latest). Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Narrowing to business hotels (N=32–33 properties / 3,935–3,959 rooms), October 31 went from 70.1% at 45 days out to 82.6% at 30 days out and 98.6% at 12 days out, slightly above all properties, while November 2 went 55.7% → 60.7% → 74.4% (14 days out) and November 3 went 46.2% → 46.2% → 55.5% (15 days out), tracing almost the same shape as all properties. Business hotels on November 3 stood still at 46.2% from 45 days out through 30 days out, and their sold-out property share was 0.0% even at the latest observation. Since business hotels account for about three-quarters of Kagoshima City’s rooms, vacancies on the two festival nights are effectively the same thing as vacancies at business hotels. How the “booking window” differs by property type in Kagoshima City is covered, using summer stay dates as examples, in Kagoshima Summer Booking Curves: 23.2pt Gap by Type at 45 Days Out.

First, middle and last nights of a holiday — the “final-night drop” shown by October’s three-day weekend

The weakness of November 3 is not unique to the festival; it is a shape common to holiday periods in Kagoshima City. Looking at actual results for elapsed October dates (N=63–64 properties / 5,133–5,398 rooms), the three-day weekend including Sports Day ran 98.0% on the first night, Saturday, October 10; 89.3% on the middle night, Sunday, October 11; and 69.1% on the last day, Monday, October 12 (a holiday) — a drop of 28.9pt from first to last. September’s Silver Week was similar: after three nights of high occupancy — Saturday, September 19 at 93.4%, Sunday, September 20 at 100.0% and Monday, September 21 (a holiday) at 99.8% — it fell to 61.9% on Wednesday, September 23 (a holiday), the last day of the break. How the gap between the first and last days of that five-day holiday arose is traced stay date by stay date in Kagoshima Silver Week Booking Curves: 34.6pt OCC Gap, Sep 21 vs 23.

Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) · Kagoshima City, all properties, actual results for elapsed dates October 1–20, 2026, N=63–64 properties / 5,133–5,398 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Applied to the four nights in question, the latest readings — October 31 (first night) 98.2%, November 1 (middle) 74.0%, November 2 (eve of the holiday) 74.7% and November 3 (last night) 57.6% — stretch the October three-day weekend’s staircase of “highest on the first night, lowest on the last” into four steps. The difference is that November 2, though a weekday Monday, has built up to the same height as the middle night of November 1; this can be read as pre-holiday demand plus a certain amount of Night Festival draw. Conversely, unless Main Festival attendance converts into overnight stays, November 3 is likely to land at the same “final-night level” as October 12 (69.1%) or September 23 (61.9%).

Using September’s day-of-week averages (N=58–64 properties) as a guide, Saturday was 82.7%, Tuesday 80.5% and Monday 78.9%, against 70.7% for Sunday — Sunday night is the weakest night in Kagoshima City. That November 1 (Sunday) has reached 74.0% at the latest observation puts it above the Sunday average as the middle night of the holiday, so demand as the eve of the festival and the middle of the holiday is coming in as expected.

Where estimated settled ADR stands — Kagoshima Prefecture business hotels at ¥6,258 for final September, +6.7% YoY

As a price yardstick, consider estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent, monthly) for business hotels in Kagoshima Prefecture (category-verified, N=160 properties). The final figure for September 2026 was ¥6,258, +6.7% on the same month a year earlier (September 2025: ¥5,866, N=157). The final figure for August 2026 was ¥6,327 (N=161), −2.8% YoY, so September returned to a level above the prior year. City hotels (N=26 properties) came in at ¥8,292 for final September, −14.1% against ¥9,656 (N=23) a year earlier — the two property types moved in opposite directions.

Estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent, monthly, Kagoshima Prefecture). November 2026 is an estimate based on current sales, and a straight comparison with final figures should wait until the month closes. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent, monthly) · Kagoshima Prefecture business hotels, N=151–161 properties. Solid line = final figures; dotted line = estimates based on current sales. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Business hotels for November 2026 show a current estimate of ¥8,788 (N=153), but this is estimated from sales as of October 21, and in a phase where high-rate festival and holiday dates sell first it tends to come out higher than the final figure. Comparison with last year’s final November figure of ¥6,262 should wait until the month closes; here it is used only as a reference level. As a price yardstick, the final September figure of ¥6,258 and last November’s ¥6,262 are the values to use as “the settled level for Kagoshima Prefecture business hotels in a normal month”.

For revenue managers running business and city hotels in Kagoshima City — implications and action plan

All decision-trigger figures are the estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis, Kagoshima City) presented in this article. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Summary — three yardsticks for reading the festival weekend

To sum up, the shape of the four Ohara Festival nights is set by two factors: the “holiday staircase” and the “festival timing”. The first yardstick is position within the holiday: in Kagoshima City, the staircase of highest on the first night and lowest on the last repeats both in the October three-day weekend (98.0 → 89.3 → 69.1%) and this time (98.2 → 74.0 → 74.7 → 57.6%). The second is whether the festival takes place at a time that converts into overnight stays: November 2, with the Night Festival, overlapped with pre-holiday demand and reached 74.7%, high for a Monday, while the daytime Main Festival generates few stays that night, and November 3 stalled at 57.6%. The third is how much builds up over the final two weeks: from 30 days out to the latest observation, October 31 added 13.5pt, November 2 11.9pt and November 3 8.7pt — the weaker the night, the smaller the late build-up.

Overlay these three points on your own property’s curves and it becomes clear which nights to sell on their own and which to pull in with multi-night conditions. The festival nights are not days to fill by cutting prices; they are days to draw in through condition design, anchored on the “nights that sell out” — the first night of the holiday and the following Saturday.

About the Data

References and Sources