According to the Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (August 2026 first preliminary release; July 2026 second preliminary release) published by the Japan Tourism Agency on September 30, 2026, guest-nights in August totaled 62.68 million (−6.7% YoY), and the overall room occupancy rate was 64.4% (−1.3pt YoY). Against that backdrop, ryokan alone came in above the prior year at 47.4% (+1.7pt), following July’s 40.2% (+3.0pt). This article overlays these national occupancy figures with MetroEngines Research’s estimated settled ADR for ryokan in 10 key prefectures (in August, 8 of the 10 were down YoY, with only Gunma +3.3% and Nagano +1.1% up), and reads the result as two patterns: prefectures that “gave up rate to capture occupancy” and prefectures that “raised rate as well.”

The national picture in August — in a month when guest-nights fell 6.7%, only ryokan occupancy beat the prior year

Let us start with the primary-source figures. Guest-nights in August 2026 were 62.68 million, −6.7% YoY, of which Japanese guests accounted for 50.04 million (−5.8%) and foreign guests 12.64 million (−10.3%). The overall room occupancy rate was 64.4%, down 1.3pt from the prior year. By facility type, business hotels were 75.7% (−0.7pt), city hotels 72.3% (−3.0pt), resort hotels 66.9% (−0.6pt) and simple lodgings 36.2% (−2.9pt), all below the prior year, whereas ryokan at 47.4% (+1.7pt) was the only type to exceed it. The Japan Tourism Agency itself states in the release that “the room occupancy rate of ryokan improved year on year.”

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency, Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (August 2026 first preliminary; July 2026 second preliminary), published September 30, 2026

The August figure is a first preliminary release, estimated from survey forms collected by September 14, 2026 (valid response rate 36.5%). The first thing to keep in mind when citing it is that it may be revised in the second preliminary release scheduled for October 30, 2026. For reference, July’s figures settled at 61.0% overall and 40.2% for ryokan after revision from the first preliminary release (valid response rate 32.9%) to the second (45.1%), and a similar increase in response rate is expected for August. How large the revisions from preliminary to final figures actually are has been measured over the past 15 months in our article How Much Are Preliminary Overnight Travel Statistics Revised?.

There is another important note that affects how year-on-year comparisons should be read. To improve statistical accuracy, the Japan Tourism Agency changed the stratification criterion from “number of employees” to “number of guest rooms” starting with the January 2026 survey. Establishments with 20 or more rooms are fully surveyed and those with 1–19 rooms are sampled, and the release states at the outset that YoY ratios and differences “may include the effects of this revision.” The fact that ryokan occupancy is above the prior year and the fact that this design change began in the same month, January 2026, need to be read together.

Ryokan occupancy has beaten the prior year in every month from January to August 2026 — while the overall rate has fallen short for 8 straight months

Rearranging the trend tables in the preliminary releases by month shows that ryokan outperforming the prior year is not limited to July and August. Ryokan room occupancy in 2026 was 33.7% in January (+0.7pt YoY), 40.1% in February (+3.5pt), 39.7% in March (+1.5pt), 37.7% in April (+2.4pt), 41.5% in May (+3.0pt), 36.7% in June (+1.7pt), 40.2% in July (+3.0pt) and 47.4% in August (+1.7pt) — above the same month of the prior year in all 8 months. Meanwhile, the overall room occupancy rate was −1.9pt in January, −0.8pt in February, −1.7pt in March, −2.3pt in April, −0.7pt in May, −1.6pt in June, −0.2pt in July and −1.3pt in August, below the prior year in all 8 months.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency, Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2024 and 2025 are final figures; January–July 2026 are second preliminary figures; August is a first preliminary figure)

The contrast — ryokan consistently up among all types while the overall rate is consistently down — appears abruptly from January 2026. In 2025, ryokan stood at 33.0% in January and 45.7% in August; in 2024, 29.1% in January and 43.1% in August, so year-to-year level differences were gradual. In other words, the 2026 picture of “only ryokan rising” may mix genuinely stronger ryokan demand with a shift in the estimation weight of small properties, including ryokan, caused by the stratification change — and the preliminary releases do not allow us to separate how much is which. With this as a premise, this article treats the national occupancy rate as an indication of direction, and examines price movements with a different yardstick: our own data.

July by prefecture — ryokan occupancy led by Hokkaido 59.1%, Shizuoka 48.7% and Gunma 47.4%

Room occupancy by prefecture and facility type is published from the second preliminary release onward, so July is currently the latest month available at the prefecture level. Among the 10 key ryokan prefectures covered in this article, ryokan room occupancy was Hokkaido 59.1% (2nd nationally), Shizuoka 48.7% (6th), Gunma 47.4% (7th), Kanagawa 44.3% (13th), Ishikawa 41.3% (18th), Tochigi 39.1% (23rd), Hyogo 38.6% (24th), Nagano 34.0% (34th), Oita 33.9% (35th) and Kyoto 33.4% (38th) — a spread of more than 25pt from top to bottom. Note that the preliminary release shows YoY differences by prefecture only for “all facilities”; prefecture-level YoY differences for ryokan are not published.

Source: Japan Tourism Agency, Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (July 2026 second preliminary); estimated settled ADR from MetroEngines Research (prefecture median for ryokan, July 2026 YoY, N=110–519 properties per prefecture); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Looking at the YoY change in July’s all-facility occupancy, Ishikawa (+4.4pt), Kanagawa (+2.1pt), Kyoto (+1.4pt), Shizuoka (+1.2pt) and Hyogo (+1.0pt) rose, while Hokkaido (−0.4pt), Gunma (−0.5pt) and Tochigi (−1.6pt) fell. Placing our estimated settled ryokan ADR (July) in the rightmost column reveals prefectures where rising occupancy and falling rates appear in the same month: in Ishikawa, ryokan ADR fell 13.8% in the very month its all-facility occupancy rose the most among the 10 prefectures (+4.4pt), and in Hyogo ADR fell 11.5% against +1.0pt. However, the occupancy figures on the left are for all lodging facilities while the rates on the right are estimates for ryokan only, with different populations and definitions. We cannot attribute causation — “rates were cut to capture occupancy” — on a common yardstick, so here we simply present them as two facts observed in the same month.

Ryokan ADR in 10 key prefectures — 8 down YoY in August, only Gunma +3.3% and Nagano +1.1% up

Next, we turn to our own data. Comparing MetroEngines Research’s estimated settled ADR for ryokan (prefecture median, tax-excluded equivalent) with the same month of the prior year for the 10 prefectures with the largest ryokan room counts, in August 2026 Gunma rose from ¥17,500 to ¥18,100 (+3.3%) and Nagano from ¥14,400 to ¥14,500 (+1.1%), while the remaining 8 prefectures fell below the prior year. The steepest decline was Ishikawa, from ¥20,700 to ¥18,200 (−12.0%), followed by Tochigi (−7.4%), Hyogo (−7.0%) and Kyoto (−6.3%). Shizuoka (−4.0%), Oita (−3.9%) and Hokkaido (−3.7%) were mid-range, and Kanagawa was nearly flat at −1.0%.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (YoY change in estimated settled ryokan ADR, prefecture median, N=111–515 properties per prefecture)

Applying the same method to July, all 10 prefectures were below the prior year. Even Gunma (−3.9%) and Nagano (−2.8%), which rose in August, were down in July, and Ishikawa (−13.8%), Hyogo (−11.5%) and Oita (−6.4%) posted larger declines in July than in August. The combination — ryokan rates in all 10 key prefectures below the prior year in July, the month when national statistics showed ryokan occupancy rising +3.0pt, more than August’s +1.7pt — is consistent with summer ryokan as a whole leaning toward “occupancy over rate.”

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (estimated settled ryokan ADR, prefecture median, retrieved October 22, 2026)

The second column from the right adds the YoY change in estimated settled ADR across all categories, not just ryokan. Gunma rose +1.8% across all categories as well, so the ryokan increase moved in the same direction as the prefecture’s overall price environment. In Nagano, all categories were nearly flat at −0.3% while ryokan alone rose +1.1%. Conversely, in Kanagawa ryokan held at −1.0% while all categories fell 7.5%, and in Kyoto both declined (all categories −8.4%, ryokan −6.3%). In a summer when Tokyo’s city hotels fell 20.6% in August and Hokkaido’s city hotels fell 11.3% in August, the overall impression across the 10 prefectures is that ryokan rate declines were shallower than these in most of them.

Two patterns — prefectures that “gave up rate to capture occupancy” and Gunma and Nagano, which “raised rate as well”

To summarize so far, summer 2026 ryokan can be read in two patterns. The first pattern is prefectures where our estimated settled ADR fell below the prior year in the months when national statistics showed ryokan occupancy rising. Ishikawa (August −12.0%), Tochigi (−7.4%), Hyogo (−7.0%) and Kyoto (−6.3%) are typical, with rates below the prior year in both months including July. In Ishikawa, ryokan ADR in August 2025 was ¥20,700, among the highest of the 10 prefectures, so the high starting point also makes the decline look larger. The second pattern is Gunma and Nagano: below the prior year in July, but ryokan rates exceeded the prior year in August. Gunma reached ¥18,100 (+3.3%) and Nagano ¥14,500 (+1.1%) in August, widening the gains to +4.2% and +4.7% respectively in September.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (YoY change in estimated settled ryokan ADR, June–September)

Looking at the monthly trend, the four prefectures share a sharp improvement in YoY change from August to September (Ishikawa −12.0% → −0.7%, Tochigi −7.4% → +7.7%, Hyogo −7.0% → −2.2%, Kyoto −6.3% → +6.1%). September was also the month, including a five-day holiday (September 19–23), in which estimated settled ADR for business hotels exceeded the prior year in 44 prefectures, and Tochigi ryokan rose +7.7% in September while Ishikawa recovered to −0.7%. So even the first-pattern prefectures “gave up rate for the two summer months,” and the same prefectures’ ryokan recovered rates once autumn arrived. It is closer to reality to see the two patterns not as fixed characteristics but as phases that alternate month to month.

To reinforce these two patterns from the occupancy side, we also show, for reference, our estimate of August ryokan occupancy derived from listed inventory on major booking sites (OTA listed-inventory basis, estimated). This figure is based on how OTA inventory sells through and differs from a property’s actual overall occupancy. Because unlisted rooms are counted as sold, it structurally runs higher than the national room occupancy rate and is not an indicator whose level should be compared with the Japan Tourism Agency’s 47.4%. Also, because our data began accumulating in March 2026, YoY changes cannot be calculated; what can be read here is only relative positioning across prefectures and categories. Why the national room occupancy rate and the OTA-inventory-based figure differ by more than 20pt is explained in our article decomposing the 22.7pt gap in July’s national figures into four factors.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (August 2026, monthly average. Coverage is a fixed set of properties listing at least 30% of total rooms on major booking sites; the number covered varies by day)

On this yardstick, August ryokan occupancy was high in Nagano at 90.1% (237 properties / 5,588 rooms, major-booking-site listing basis), Gunma at 87.6% (162 properties / 4,996 rooms), Shizuoka at 87.4% (283 properties / 7,998 rooms) and Tochigi at 87.4% (135 properties / 5,488 rooms), and relatively low in Oita at 81.1% (215 properties / 3,519 rooms), Kyoto at 82.5% (101 properties / 1,941 rooms) and Ishikawa at 82.8% (78 properties / 3,424 rooms). In Gunma and Tochigi, ryokan ran higher than all categories in the same prefecture, with ryokan inventory sell-through pulling up the prefectural average. That Gunma and Nagano, which raised rates, also rank high on ryokan inventory sell-through by this yardstick offers support from a different angle that the two prefectures were close to the second pattern — “both rate and occupancy” — in August.

How to read this — national occupancy and our estimated ADR are not the same yardstick

The figures in this article sit on three different yardsticks. First, the Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy rate is an estimate of overall facility occupancy based on survey forms sent to hotels, ryokan, simple lodgings and other facilities nationwide (full survey for 20+ rooms, sample for fewer than 20), and the August figure is a first preliminary release with a valid response rate of 36.5%. Second, our estimated settled ADR applies category-specific adjustment factors to the lowest-plan level each property publishes on major booking sites; it covers only properties confirmed as operating and excludes ryokan that do not list on booking sites. Third, the OTA listed-inventory-based occupancy rate is the sell-through rate of listed inventory, not actual occupancy.

Therefore, causal claims such as “ADR fell because occupancy rose” or “occupancy was captured because rates were cut” cannot be established merely by putting these three side by side. The effect of the stratification change on YoY comparisons, the movements of ryokan that do not list on booking sites, and the demand-side shift in which foreign guests fell sharply (−10.3%) as total guest-nights declined 6.7% (in July’s second preliminary release, the share of regional areas outside the three major metropolitan areas was 58.4%, +1.9pt YoY) are all moving in the background at the same time (ryokan have the lowest share of foreign guests among lodging categories — 12.9% for full-year 2025). What this article can show is a simultaneous observation of how estimated settled ryokan rates in 10 key prefectures moved in the months when national statistics showed ryokan occupancy trending up, and we ask readers to approach it in the same spirit as our previous article classifying July’s 47 prefectures into four quadrants of volume × rate.

Implications for ryokan operators and investors — identifying the months when rates can be recovered as occupancy turns up

For ryokan operators, the opportunity in the summer 2026 data lies in judging “how far rates can be recovered in months when occupancy follows.” Ryokan in Gunma and Nagano brought rates that were below the prior year in July back above it in August and widened the gains in September. Tochigi ryokan exceeded the prior year by 7.7% in September, and Ishikawa recovered to −0.7%, close to the prior-year level. When occupancy is trending up, there is room to revise not only peak-day prices but also, in stages, the price bands for weekdays before and after the peak. August in particular is the month with the highest ryokan room occupancy of the year (45.7% in 2025, 47.4% in 2026), so there is less need to concede on rate than in other months.

As a guide for this “recover the rate” decision, Table 5 uses the identity room revenue = rate × occupancy to show, by prior-year occupancy level, how many points occupancy must move to keep room revenue flat when the rate changes YoY. At a rate change of −4%, a property with prior-year occupancy of 45% needs +1.9pt more occupancy, and at −7%, +3.4pt; conversely, recovering the rate by +3% keeps room revenue flat even if occupancy falls 1.3pt. National ryokan room occupancy in August was 45.7% in 2025 and 47.4% in 2026 (Japan Tourism Agency; August 2026 is a first preliminary release), so the 45% column is close to the August benchmark. However, because the Japan Tourism Agency’s occupancy rate and our estimated settled ADR differ in population and definition, this table cannot be read as actual room revenue for any specific prefecture. It is strictly an arithmetic guide for checking a property’s own combination of rate and occupancy.

HotelBank Editorial Team estimate (required change = prior-year occupancy × (1 ÷ (1 + rate YoY) − 1), rounded to one decimal place). Positive values are the additional occupancy required; negative values are the allowable decline

From an investor’s or analyst’s perspective, the premise is to evaluate ryokan occupancy exceeding the prior year in every month from January to August separately from the stratification change. How the August figures are revised in the October 30 second preliminary release, and how ryokan figures moved YoY in top ryokan-occupancy prefectures such as Gunma, Nagano, Shizuoka and Hokkaido once August occupancy by prefecture and facility type is published, will be the next material for testing the two-pattern hypothesis. Our estimated settled ADR is updated monthly, and we will follow whether the autumn rate recovery continues into winter — including the fact that September ryokan rates turned above the prior year in 7 of the 10 prefectures (Gunma +4.2%, Nagano +4.7%, Tochigi +7.7%, Kyoto +6.1%, Oita +4.5%, Shizuoka +2.7%, Kanagawa +2.4%).

Three things to watch in the October 30 second preliminary release

First, whether August 2026 ryokan room occupancy of 47.4% (+1.7pt) stays above the prior year after revision. In July, the valid response rate rose from 32.9% in the first preliminary release to 45.1% in the second, and a similar increase is expected for August. Second, August room occupancy by prefecture and facility type, which will make prefecture-level ryokan figures readable for the first time. Third, foreign guest-nights by nationality: in July, Taiwan (+24.7%), South Korea (+28.4%) and Hong Kong (+49.3%) grew while China fell 44.7%, and we want to check, together with guest-nights by prefecture, how this mix affected demand in regional prefectures with many ryokan.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Is the 47.4% ryokan room occupancy rate for August 2026 a final figure?

A. It is a first preliminary figure, estimated from survey forms collected by September 14, 2026 (valid response rate 36.5%), and may be revised in the second preliminary release scheduled for October 30, 2026.

Q. Can the Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy rate be compared with this article’s ADR and estimated occupancy?

A. No. The Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy rate is overall facility occupancy based on survey forms; this article’s ADR is an estimated settled rate derived by applying adjustment factors to public prices on major booking sites; and the OTA listed-inventory-based occupancy is the sell-through rate of listed inventory. Their populations and definitions differ. This article presents them as facts observed in the same month.

Q. How does the stratification change affect YoY comparisons?

A. The Japan Tourism Agency changed the stratification criterion from number of employees to number of guest rooms starting with the January 2026 survey, and the release states that YoY ratios and differences may include the effects of this revision. The size of the effect has not been published.

Q. Which prefectures saw estimated settled ryokan ADR exceed the prior year in August 2026?

A. Among the 10 key prefectures, two: Gunma (¥17,517 → ¥18,102, +3.3%) and Nagano (¥14,363 → ¥14,521, +1.1%). The remaining 8 fell below the prior year, with the largest declines in Ishikawa (−12.0%), Tochigi (−7.4%) and Hyogo (−7.0%) (MetroEngines Research prefecture median for ryokan, retrieved October 22, 2026).

Q. When will August ryokan room occupancy by prefecture be available?

A. Room occupancy by prefecture and facility type is published from the second preliminary release onward, so August figures will be available in the second preliminary release scheduled for October 30, 2026. The latest currently available is July 2026, when Hokkaido’s 59.1% was the highest and Kyoto’s 33.4% the lowest among the 10 key prefectures.