Comparing 2025 room occupancy for October and November in the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, Hokkaido fell 9.0pt from 63.2% to 54.2%, while Gunma slipped only 1.2pt, from 49.2% to 48.0%. November, which falls between the autumn-foliage and ski seasons, does not produce a trough of the same timing or depth even among prefectures with mountain and highland resorts. For six prefectures — Hokkaido, Yamagata, Gunma, Niigata, Nagano and Gifu — this article overlays public statistics from the past two seasons with booking status at 45 days before arrival for early-to-mid November 2026, to identify what the places that fill rooms without cutting rates have in common, and which November demand is there to be captured.

November in the Past Two Seasons — Hokkaido Has a V-Shaped Trough; the Five Honshu Prefectures Step Down into December

First, we locate the trough in the 2024 and 2025 monthly figures, for which final data are complete. The Japan Tourism Agency publishes by month and does not break out the early, middle and late parts of a month. So we placed October (peak foliage) and December (the start of the ski season) at either end and looked at where November sits between them.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, final annual figures for 2024 and 2025 (Table 8). Unit: %

Of the six prefectures, only Hokkaido shows a clear trough in November. It fell 10.2pt from 65.9% to 55.7% in 2024 and 9.0pt from 63.2% to 54.2% in 2025, recovering to 58.7% and 59.5% respectively in December. The five Honshu prefectures, by contrast, keep the November decline within 1.0–6.7pt, but their December monthly average drops further, giving a staircase rather than a trough. Because ski demand concentrates toward year-end, the first half of December appears to pull the monthly average down.

Gunma recorded the smallest declines, −1.0pt in 2024 and −1.2pt in 2025, moving almost exactly with the national figures (+0.1pt and −1.2pt). Gifu (−4.2pt and −3.0pt) came next. Even among “mountain prefectures,” then, some treat November as an empty spell after the foliage, while others manage to use it as an extension of autumn.

Figure 1. Room occupancy in Hokkaido (monthly). Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey

Figure 2. Room occupancy in Gunma (monthly). Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey

Splitting by property type narrows down who owns the trough. Hokkaido’s resort hotels fell 20.5pt from 50.4% to 29.9% in 2025 before returning to 57.8% in December — a deep V. Resort hotels in Niigata (32.5% → 24.8% → 31.9%) and Nagano (37.5% → 29.4% → 31.1%) moved the same way. In Gunma, by contrast, ryokan held flat at 47.5% and resort hotels actually rose from 49.5% to 50.7%, while Yamagata’s ryokan barely moved, from 48.6% to 48.7%. Business hotels in all six prefectures held 69.9–80.2% in November.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, final annual figures for 2025 (Table 8). Unit: %

Rates Did Not Fall in November — Ryokan ADR Exceeded October in All Six Prefectures in 2025

Against that dip in volume, how did rates move? Indexing ryokan’s November estimated settled ADR from MetroEngines Research to October = 100 gives 96.4–104.0 for 2024 and 102.4–117.2 for 2025. In 2025, November exceeded October in all six prefectures, with Gunma rising from ¥15,300 to ¥18,000 and Niigata from ¥13,300 to ¥15,200. At least for ryokan, the November trough shows up in volume, not in price. In Nagano, ryokan and resort hotels saw only their off-peak-month rates fall below the previous year in 2026, with settled ADR moving from +21.9% year on year in January to −0.1% in June.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team. Index = November estimated settled ADR ÷ October of the same year × 100. The 2026 figure is an estimate based on listed rate levels at the survey date (early October 2026); because its basis differs from that of finalized months, it is shown only relative to October of the same year.

Figure 3. Ryokan estimated settled ADR, November index (October of each year = 100). Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team

Hokkaido, however, looks different. Its ryokan index was 96.4 in 2024 and 92.8 in the 2026 survey-date estimate, and business hotels also fell to 91.4 in 2025. Where volume and rate retreat together, as in Hokkaido, the levers to pull in November differ from those in Honshu’s onsen prefectures, where only volume retreats and rates hold. At the 2026 survey date, ryokan in Gunma (104.3) and Niigata (103.9) are heading into November priced slightly above October.

Interim Readings for Early-to-Mid November 2026 — At 45 Days Out, the Trough Sits on Weekdays

We now turn to this season’s bookings. Because our inventory-based estimated OCC began in March 2026, it cannot be set against the same lead time a year or two earlier. Instead, we aligned each stay date on “how full it was 45 days before arrival” and compared stays from September through November 17 on the same yardstick. Stays from November 18 onward are more than 45 days away and are not covered here. Stays from November 4 onward are more than 30 days from today, so all figures below are interim readings while bookings are still building.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team. Estimated OCC (%) is at 45 days before arrival and covers properties listing at least 30% of total rooms on major booking sites (major booking site basis). Weekdays are Monday–Thursday nights (excluding Nov 2, the eve of a holiday); averages cover 6 nights for late October, 5 nights for early November and 4 nights for mid-November (Nov 11–17). Saturday for late October is the average of Oct 24 and Oct 31. Gifu resorts (6 properties) are excluded because no values were obtained.

Across all properties on weekdays, the decline from late October to early November was largest in Hokkaido at −8.1pt, while Gunma was −2.1pt. The same ordering seen in public statistics over the past two seasons is already visible at 45 days out. Weekday listed prices also fell in Hokkaido, from ¥22,700 to ¥20,500, whereas in Gunma they rose from ¥24,900 to ¥25,400 and in Gifu from ¥25,500 to ¥26,300.

Split by segment, ryokan Saturdays have not weakened in November. Gunma ryokan stood at 80.3% for late-October Saturdays, 82.0% for Saturday, November 7 and 83.1% for Saturday, November 14, and Gifu was almost flat at 88.2% → 88.8% → 88.6%. In other words, what remains as a trough is the weekday side. Comparing Saturday with weekdays for ryokan in early November, the gap was 18.1pt in Gunma (82.0% vs 63.9%), 11.7pt in Nagano (75.7% vs 64.0%) and 10.0pt in Gifu (88.8% vs 78.8%). How the trough day differs by segment in Gunma is covered in Gunma Day-of-Week OCC: Ryokan Trough Wed 78.9%, Business Sun 81.3%.

Figure 4. Ryokan weekday estimated OCC (at 45 days out, by ten-day period). Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team. Coverage: Hokkaido 154 properties / 6,879 rooms, Yamagata 106 / 2,830, Gunma 176 / 5,660, Niigata 136 / 3,283, Nagano 264 / 6,282, Gifu 131 / 3,438 (major booking site basis)

Tracing Figure 4 from early September, ryokan in the five Honshu prefectures build toward late October and then give back 2–5pt in November. Hokkaido alone hovered around 66% from September, falling from 64.0% in late October to 57.8% in early November. With foliage arriving earlier in Hokkaido, its autumn peak itself comes before Honshu’s, and November is a long wait for snow. Shiga Kogen has announced that its 2026-27 season opens on Saturday, December 5, so Honshu’s main ski areas get moving only after the November window covered here.

What Shallow-Trough Municipalities Have in Common — Onsen Towns Average −2.4pt, City Tourism −7.2pt

Taking the prefectural averages down to municipalities shows where the gap comes from. We took the 24 municipalities in the six prefectures with at least 20 properties covered, grouped them by main character into onsen towns, highland/ski and city tourism, and compared late-October weekdays with weekdays from November 3 to 17 (9 Monday–Thursday nights).

Figure 5. Difference in weekday estimated OCC (Nov 3–17 weekdays − late-October weekdays, at 45 days out, pt). Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team. Estimated OCC (%) covers all segments at 45 days before arrival, for properties listing at least 30% of total rooms on major booking sites (major booking site basis). ADR index = November 2025 estimated settled ADR ÷ October of the same year × 100. Listing retention = properties with listed prices observed in November 2025 ÷ properties in August of the same year. “Main character” is an editorial classification.

Simple averages of the difference were −2.4pt for the 8 onsen-town municipalities (319 properties / 12,397 rooms), −2.6pt for the 9 highland/ski municipalities (346 properties / 10,850 rooms) and −7.2pt for the 7 city-tourism cities (440 properties / 21,165 rooms). Shibukawa (Ikaho) was +2.2pt, Nakanojo (Shima) −0.5pt and Yamanouchi (Yudanaka-Shibu and Shiga Kogen) +2.4pt — towns built around hot springs are heading into November at almost the same pace as late October. City-tourism destinations such as Matsumoto (−10.9pt), Hakodate (−10.8pt) and Otaru (−11.2pt), by contrast, fall further because their October levels are higher.

Rates pointed the same way. The 2025 ADR index (October = 100) averaged 113.1 for onsen towns, 107.7 for highland/ski and 98.5 for city tourism. With Shibukawa at 128.1, Gero at 119.7 and Kusatsu at 115.1, onsen towns raised rates in November while holding volume. Likely factors are that the season overlaps with foliage descending from high elevations to the onsen towns, and that the hot springs themselves are the purpose of the trip and depend less on weather or scenery. Within Gifu, the autumn rate peak also falls in different months by municipality — October in Takayama, November in Gero.

Year-round operation, on the other hand, was not decisive. The share of properties listed in August that remained listed in November ranged from 84% to 108% across the 24 municipalities, with no visible link to trough depth. Within highland/ski, towns improving toward mid-November, such as Furano (+6.6pt) and Yuzawa (+0.9pt), sit alongside villages with large declines, such as Tsumagoi (−10.4pt), leaving a spread that location type alone cannot explain.

The other common factor is whether non-leisure stays are in the mix. Splitting the Japan Tourism Agency’s statistics by purpose of stay, in November 2025 Nagano properties where “leisure guests are 50% or more” had room occupancy of 24.0%, versus 68.6% for those “under 50%.” In Gunma, occupancy at under-50% properties rose from 69.0% in October to 71.7% in November, suggesting that weekday demand — business trips, training and construction-related stays — props up the November floor.

November Demand to Capture and Where It Lands — Weekdays, Extended Stays, Toji Bathing Retreats and Training

Putting this together, November in mountain-resort prefectures looks like “Saturdays and onsen towns fill; weekdays, city tourism and highland areas leave room.” Converting that room into rooms, 1pt of weekday estimated OCC equals about 57 rooms per night in Gunma’s 5,660-room ryokan cohort and about 63 in Nagano’s 6,282 rooms. Given the 10–18pt gap to Saturday, the scope for adding weekday business is not small. The table below lists where that demand can land, by type of demand.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey and MetroEngines Research

For individual guests on weekdays, the easier design is to change conditions on weekdays only without disturbing Saturday levels. Ryokan Saturdays are already around 80% at 45 days out, so there is little need to move weekend prices. Weekday-only perks and multi-night conditions limited to certain days can be layered on to extend stays into the first half of the week. The record of onsen towns pricing November above October shows that discounting is not the only way to fill weekdays.

Extended stays and toji retreats are levers that simply stretch an onsen town’s strengths. Combinations such as simplified housekeeping from the second night in exchange for a perk, or optional dinner to give guests more freedom, already appear among published plans. For corporate training and group camps, the statistic that properties with a lower leisure share run higher November occupancy is the clue. For resort hotels and ryokan with meeting rooms or large banquet halls, post-foliage weekdays are likely a good time to widen capacity for training groups.

In regions where volume and rate both retreat, as in Hokkaido, it helps to change the order of priorities. Early-November weekdays stand at 57.4% at 45 days out with a listed price of ¥20,500 — a step down from late October. Here, rather than chasing rate, the realistic approach is to capture urban business demand in Sapporo, Hakodate and elsewhere early (weekday depth by day of week is covered in Hokkaido Business Hotels Aren’t Weekend-Led: Thu 95.4% Ties Sat 95.4%), along with early stays ahead of ski-season opening, and carry that into the December ramp-up. The interim reading showing Furano improving toward mid-November suggests that movement may already be under way.

Converting Weekday Upside into Room-Nights — Sensitivity Across Ryokan Cohorts in Six Prefectures

To put the “scope for adding weekday business” from the previous section into units with a sense of scale, we multiplied the room count of each ryokan cohort in Table 4 by the number of points weekday estimated OCC could be raised, and summed across the 16 weekday nights of November 2026 (Monday–Thursday nights, excluding November 2, the eve of a holiday). The uplift columns can be read as +2pt conservative, +6pt moderate and +10pt aggressive.

Source: Estimates by MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team. Room counts are the ryokan cohorts from Table 4 (major booking site basis). “Gap to Saturday” is the difference in estimated OCC between ryokan Saturday (Nov 7) and weekdays in early November (at 45 days out). Additional room-nights = rooms × uplift (pt) × 16 nights. * marks cells where the uplift exceeds the gap to Saturday — an assumption above weekend levels, shown for reference.

Gunma has an 18.1pt gap to Saturday, so even +10pt would not reach weekend levels. At about 906 room-nights per point, it is one of the combinations where uplift pays off most among the six prefectures. Nagano, with more rooms, has the largest scale per point at about 1,005 room-nights, reaching about 6,000 room-nights at +6pt. Yamagata, by contrast, has only a 9.8pt gap to Saturday, so +10pt would mean exceeding weekend levels. Across ryokan in all six prefectures, lifting weekdays by just 2pt amounts to about 9,100 room-nights, and 6pt to about 27,200. These figures convert the size of the opportunity; they do not show that the demand already exists.

FAQ

Q. Which mountain resort areas see the steepest drop in November occupancy?

A. In the Japan Tourism Agency’s final 2025 figures, Hokkaido had the largest decline of the six prefectures, with room occupancy falling from 63.2% in October to 54.2% in November. For resort hotels alone it dropped from 50.4% to 29.9%, before returning to 57.8% in December.

Q. Do room rates also fall in November?

A. For ryokan, the estimated settled ADR in November exceeded October in all six prefectures in 2025 (102.4–117.2 with October = 100). The occupancy trough and rate movements do not necessarily coincide.

Q. How far along are bookings for November 2026?

A. In interim readings at 45 days before arrival, ryokan Saturdays are at almost the same level as late October, while weekdays in early November (Nov 3–10) are 1.6–6.2pt below late October. Stays from November 18 onward are not covered because the observation period is too short.

Q. Is there demand supporting November weekdays?

A. Splitting the Japan Tourism Agency’s statistics by purpose of stay, properties where leisure guests are under 50% had November 2025 room occupancy of 71.7% in Gunma, 72.0% in Gifu and 68.6% in Nagano. Non-leisure stays — business trips, training and construction-related work — support the post-foliage weekday floor.

Q. How many room-nights would a few points of weekday uplift add?

A. As shown in Table 7, converting over the 16 weekday nights of November 2026 (Monday–Thursday nights, excluding Nov 2), each point equals about 906 room-nights for Gunma’s 5,660-room ryokan cohort and about 1,005 room-nights for Nagano’s 6,282 rooms. A guide to the upper limit of uplift is the gap to early-November Saturdays (Gunma 18.1pt, Nagano 11.7pt).

Summary

November in the six prefectures with mountain and highland resorts was not a single, uniform off-season. In public statistics, only Hokkaido forms a V-shaped trough; the five Honshu prefectures step down into December with November as a shoulder, and Gunma and Gifu decline only slightly from October. Ryokan rates in November exceeded October in all six prefectures in 2025, so the trough lies in volume — and specifically on weekdays.

In this season’s 45-day-out snapshot, too, the eight onsen-town municipalities averaged −2.4pt, tracking close to late October. The 10–18pt gap to Saturday can be read as room to fill with weekday, extended-stay, toji and training demand. We plan a follow-up on the late-November three-day weekend (November 21–23) and early December, using the same yardstick, as observations accumulate.