Estimated settled ADR for city hotels and business hotels in Hokkaido moved in clearly different directions from summer into autumn 2026. City hotels (N=75 properties) finalized September at ¥16,500, flat at +0.1% against the same month last year (¥16,500, N=74), recovering to last year’s level from a finalized August of ¥17,800 (prior year ¥20,100, −11.3%). Business hotels (N=437 properties), by contrast, finalized September at ¥10,800, +8.9% above last year (¥10,000, N=419), and stayed above the prior year throughout the summer: June +2.7%, July +4.1%, August +2.5%. This article reads the gap between the two segments through “how high last year’s base was” and “the composition of September demand,” and sets out what should be on the agenda for winter (December–February) pricing.

Coverage: Hokkaido city hotels N=75 properties and business hotels N=437 properties (properties included in the estimated settled ADR aggregation for the finalized month of September 2026). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent, monthly); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of: October 20, 2026.

Finalized-Month Trend — City Hotels Sank in Summer and Returned to Last Year’s Level in September; Business Hotels Stayed Above the Prior Year Throughout

We start by tracking year-on-year changes between finalized months, by segment. Hokkaido city hotels went from ¥14,800 in June 2026 (prior year ¥15,400, −3.6%) to ¥17,800 in July (prior year ¥18,900, −5.7%) and ¥17,800 in August (prior year ¥20,100, −11.3%) — the year-on-year gap widened month by month toward the peak of summer. In September, however, the rate was ¥16,500, almost exactly last year’s level (¥16,500), and the YoY change recovered to +0.1%. Going from a double-digit decline in August to flat within one month suggests the rate stopped falling once the seasonal peak had passed. The summer trend through August and how each segment set its prices are analyzed in detail in Hokkaido Summer 2026 ADR: City −11.3%, Business +2.5% in August.

Business hotels, in contrast, never fell below the prior year over the same four months: June ¥9,500 (prior year ¥9,300, +2.7%), July ¥11,200 (prior year ¥10,700, +4.1%), August ¥11,300 (prior year ¥11,000, +2.5%), and September ¥10,800 (prior year ¥10,000, +8.9%). What is more, September’s gain was larger than the summer months’. The contrast is clear: in August, when city hotels sank, business hotels secured +2.5%; in September, when city hotels returned to flat, business hotels widened their gain.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data (Hokkaido, city hotels, estimated settled ADR, tax-excluded equivalent. October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales and may change)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data (Hokkaido, business hotels, estimated settled ADR, tax-excluded equivalent. October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales and may change)

Laying out the finalized monthly figures in a table makes the gap between the two segments concrete. Taking the simple average of the finalized months January–September, city hotels moved from ¥14,900 in 2025 to ¥15,000 in 2026, just +0.6%, while business hotels rose from ¥8,800 to ¥9,300, +5.8%. Viewed from the start of the year as well, 2026 in Hokkaido was a year in which business hotels pushed rates up and city hotels did well just to hold the prior year’s level.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data (estimated settled ADR, tax-excluded equivalent, finalized month vs. finalized month. N in parentheses is the number of properties aggregated in each month)

Check the Denominator — In Summer 2025, City Hotels Were on a High Base of +10–17% vs. 2024

Before taking the city hotels’ August −11.3% as “demand stalling,” it is worth checking what level summer 2025 — the denominator of the comparison — was at. In 2025, city hotels rose against 2024 in all four summer months, by roughly double digits: June +11.0% (¥13,800→¥15,400), July +10.2% (¥17,100→¥18,900), August +16.8% (¥17,200→¥20,100) and September +14.4% (¥14,400→¥16,500). In other words, what city hotels fell below in 2026 was a base that had jumped sharply a year earlier.

Re-examining the numbers as a two-year cumulative change from 2024 changes the picture. City hotels’ August 2026 rate of ¥17,800 is +3.5% against ¥17,200 in August 2024, and September’s ¥16,500 is +14.5% against ¥14,400 in September 2024 — both above the level of two years earlier. The simple June–September average went from ¥15,600 in 2024 to ¥17,700 in 2025 (+13.1%) to ¥16,700 in 2026 (−5.5%); the reality is closer to “gave back a little under half of the gain built up in 2025.”

Business hotels’ denominator was not nearly as high. In 2025, business hotels rose against 2024 by +6.8% in June, +8.0% in July, +8.9% in August and +9.2% in September — solid, but roughly half the growth of city hotels. Because 2026 added +2.5% to +8.9% on top of that, the two-year cumulative change is +11.7% in August (¥10,100→¥11,300) and +18.9% in September (¥9,100→¥10,800), outpacing city hotels. Looking only at the sign of the YoY change, it seems city hotels are weak and business hotels strong; on a two-year view, the difference is one of shape: “city hotels jumped once and came back, business hotels built up step by step.” The approach of reading YoY alongside the change versus two years earlier is also set out in our analysis of Osaka in the year after the Expo, Osaka Settled ADR −25% YoY but +1.6% vs 2024.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data (Hokkaido, estimated settled ADR, YoY between finalized months, January–September 2026)

As a result, the rate gap between the two segments also narrowed. The multiple of city hotels’ estimated settled ADR divided by business hotels’ fell from 1.82x in August 2025 to 1.57x in August 2026, and from 1.65x to 1.52x in September. From the city hotels’ side, the premium they justified by their price gap with business hotels was compressed over the summer, and the level to which this multiple should be restored will likely be one of the questions in winter price design.

Composition of September Demand — Estimated OCC by Day of Week Shows a Business-Type Pattern: Strong on Weekdays, Weak on Sundays and Holidays

So what was the composition of September demand, the month in which city hotels returned to last year’s level and business hotels widened their gain? Averaging the daily estimated OCC for September 2026 by day of week, based on OTA-listed inventory (coverage: city 34–37 properties / 8,454–8,831 rooms; business 219–231 properties / 25,308–27,296 rooms; all based on listings on major booking sites, varying by day), city hotels were 91.4% Monday–Thursday, 89.9% Friday–Saturday and 88.7% on Sunday, while business hotels were 93.8% Monday–Thursday, 92.8% Friday–Saturday and 88.3% on Sunday. In both segments, weekdays were higher than weekends, with Sunday the lowest.

For both segments, the lowest day was the Autumnal Equinox holiday, Wednesday, September 23, which marked the monthly low at 77.9% for city hotels and 79.6% for business hotels. The highest days, meanwhile, were Thursday, September 3 for city hotels (97.8%) and Wednesday, September 16 for business hotels (98.8%) — both mid-week weekdays. During the five-day holiday period of September 19–23, the middle day, Sunday the 20th, was high at 96.9% for city hotels and 97.8% for business hotels, as was Respect for the Aged Day, Monday the 21st (96.3% and 97.2%), and the low came on the final day of the holiday period, the 23rd. The Monday–Thursday average excluding the holiday was also above the monthly average, at 92.3% for city hotels and 94.7% for business hotels, suggesting that beyond holiday leisure demand, business-related demand — business trips, groups and MICE — and independent travelers who choose to travel on weekdays supported the depth of demand. This composition is business hotels’ home ground and is consistent with business hotels widening their gain to +8.9% in September. The day-of-week shape of Hokkaido business hotels is explored using June–July results in Hokkaido Business Hotels Aren’t Weekend-Led: Thu 95.4% Ties Sat 95.4%.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data (estimated OCC = based on OTA-listed inventory, September 2026, observed just before the stay date. The Mon–Thu group includes the 9/23 holiday)

Behind this is a year-on-year decline in leisure demand itself. According to the Overnight Travel Statistics Survey compiled and published by the Hokkaido District Transport Bureau, total guest nights in Hokkaido for April–June 2026 were 9.184 million, down 7.5% from the same period last year (9.933 million), and foreign guest nights were 1.934 million, down 11.3% from the same period last year (2.181 million). Foreign guest nights were, however, up 11.4% on the same period of 2024 (1.736 million), so here too the “last year was high” pattern overlaps. Nationally, the Japan Tourism Agency’s first preliminary figures for August 2026 showed 62.68 million total guest nights (−6.7% YoY) and 12.64 million foreign guest nights (−10.3%), meaning summer inbound demand was below the prior year. The segment difference — city hotels, with a higher share of leisure guests, gave up rate in summer, while business hotels, with a heavier weighting of business demand, were less affected — is consistent with the direction of these public statistics.

Toward Winter (December–February) — Last Winter, Too, City Hotels Were on a High Base of +24–29%

To sum up so far: the summer 2026 YoY decline for city hotels is largely “a reaction to the base that jumped in 2025,” while business hotels, with their lower base, were able to keep growing. Applying this view to winter makes clear what to watch for. In December 2025–February 2026, Hokkaido city hotels posted large YoY increases in December and January that exceeded even the summer months, in finalized figures: December ¥13,600 (December 2024 ¥10,900, +24.6%), January ¥14,700 (January 2025 ¥11,300, +29.4%) and February ¥18,200 (February 2025 ¥17,400, +4.4%). The comparison base this winter is as high as in summer, or higher.

Business hotels last winter ran December ¥7,500 (+9.3%), January ¥8,100 (+14.4%) and February ¥8,800 (+8.1%) — again smaller gains than city hotels. The city/business multiple was 1.81x last December, 1.82x in January and 2.07x in February, with the gap widest in February, which includes the Sapporo Snow Festival. How far this multiple, which shrank to the 1.5x range in summer, recovers in winter is the focal point of the segment gap.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data (last winter = finalized figures for December 2025–February 2026; vs. two years earlier = comparison with finalized figures for December 2024–February 2025. This winter = December 2026–February 2027, estimates based on current sales that will change as sales progress. A simple comparison with finalized figures must wait for month-end finalization)

The this-winter columns are estimates based on prices currently on sale and include many asking prices for rooms not yet sold. The difference from last year’s finalized figures therefore cannot be read as a YoY change; here they serve only as a reference for “what level properties are currently selling at.” Note also that the aggregated N for January and February — 68 properties (city) and 341–359 properties (business) — is smaller than in finalized months, as some properties have not yet opened sales.

For Revenue Managers Running City and Business Hotels in Hokkaido — Implications and Action Plan

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data (all decision-trigger figures are finalized or aggregated values from this article)

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Hokkaido’s Winter

The first yardstick is “two-year cumulative change, not YoY.” City hotels’ August −11.3% is +3.5% vs. 2024 and September’s +0.1% is +14.5%, so reading them as a reaction to the base that jumped in 2025 was reasonable. The second is “how high each segment’s base is”: business hotels’ 2025 growth was a moderate +7–9%, so they continued to build +2.5% to +8.9% in 2026 and outpaced city hotels on a two-year cumulative basis. The third is “the day-of-week shape of demand”: September’s estimated OCC was highest Monday–Thursday in both segments, a business-type pattern with Sundays and holidays at the bottom.

Applying these three to winter, city hotels will face a base even higher than in summer — +24.6% last December and +29.4% in January — while the question for business hotels is whether they can build further on last winter’s +8–14% base. Once October’s finalized figures are out, we will update the figures in this article and revisit the winter base scenario.

Frequently Asked Questions

About the Data

References and Sources

■ Data sources

Estimated settled ADR and estimated OCC were aggregated monthly by the HotelBank Editorial Team for Hokkaido city hotels (N=73–76 properties) and business hotels (N=410–441 properties), from public OTA prices and listed inventory continuously tracked by MetroEngines Research. For public statistics, we used the Overnight Travel Statistics Survey published by the Japan Tourism Agency and the Hokkaido District Transport Bureau.

■ Calculation assumptions

YoY and the change versus two years earlier compare finalized months with finalized months. The multiple between segments is city hotels’ estimated settled ADR divided by business hotels’. The January–September and June–September averages are simple averages of monthly values, not weighted by number of properties or rooms. Values for this winter (December 2026–February 2027) are estimates based on sales as of October 20, 2026 and are not treated as YoY changes.

■ Limitations and caveats

Estimated settled ADR is an estimate and differs from individual properties’ actual settled prices and accounting figures. Estimated OCC is based on OTA-listed inventory and counts unlisted rooms as absorbed, so it reads higher than actual room occupancy. The number of properties aggregated changes from month to month, and the estimates for this winter exclude properties that have not yet opened sales. Public statistics are preliminary or provisional figures and may be revised when finalized.