The September 2026 settled ADR estimates (final figures) for city hotels and business hotels in Fukuoka Prefecture are now in. City hotels (N=43 properties) came in at ¥18,547 in September, +21.9% against the same month last year (¥15,212, N=37), while business hotels (N=342) reached ¥10,958, +9.9% against last year (¥9,972, N=331). The growth widened sharply from August’s City +6.2% and Business +2.2%. However, the City +21.9% owes much to a base effect: September 2025 was one of the weakest months of the year. (Limiting the comparison to the same 37 properties tracked in both years still gives +21.9%, so the increase in the sample from 37 to 43 properties contributed almost nothing in September.) It is too early to read the figure at face value as “a 20% rate increase got through.” This article compares each month of January–September with the prior year on a final-figure basis, checks September against occupancy and published REIT results, and then sets out what benchmarks to use for October–November pricing.

Scope: Fukuoka Prefecture city hotels N=43 properties (as of September 2026) and business hotels N=342 properties (same). Price metrics in this article are settled ADR estimates (estimated contracted rate levels derived from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are given at the end of the article. Data as of November 1, 2026.

September Final Figures — City +21.9% Reflects a Low Prior-Year Base Plus Holiday Timing

First, September’s final figures against last year. The settled ADR estimate for city hotels rose from ¥15,212 in September 2025 (N=37) to ¥18,547 in September 2026 (N=43), +21.9% YoY. Business hotels rose from ¥9,972 (N=331) to ¥10,958 (N=342), +9.9% — a little under half the city-hotel growth. Given that August’s final figures were City ¥18,479 (prior year ¥17,406, +6.2%) and Business ¥10,837 (prior year ¥10,606, +2.2%), the level itself was almost flat from August to September (City +¥68, Business +¥121), yet the YoY figure widened sharply. The month-by-month movement through August and the gap between segments are covered on a final-figure basis in Fukuoka ADR Splits: City +6.2%, Business +2.2% in August 2026.

The main driver of this widening is on the prior-year side. In 2025, city hotels fell nearly ¥2,200 from ¥17,406 in August to ¥15,212 in September, making September one of the lowest months of January–September, on par with January (¥15,198). In 2026 there was no August-to-September drop, and the level held around ¥18,500, so YoY jumped from +6.2% to +21.9%. Business hotels show the same pattern: in 2025 they fell from ¥10,606 in August to ¥9,972 in September, whereas in 2026 they edged up from ¥10,837 to ¥10,958.

The other factor is likely the holiday calendar. In September 2026, Tuesday the 22nd — sandwiched between Respect for the Aged Day (Monday the 21st) and the Autumnal Equinox Day (Wednesday the 23rd) — became a national holiday, creating a five-day holiday from Saturday the 19th to Wednesday the 23rd. In September 2025, the three-day weekend ran from Saturday the 13th to Monday the 15th, and the Autumnal Equinox Day fell on Tuesday the 23rd. Compared with last year’s three-day weekend and isolated holiday, this year had five consecutive days off, and the daily estimated OCC discussed below shows near-sellout levels on the second and third days of the holiday in 2026; these high-rate days may have lifted the final figure.

The change in the number of city hotels covered also needs checking. The sample rose by six, from 37 properties last September to 43 this September. Because the settled ADR estimate is a monthly average of the property median within the area, newly added properties can shift the median depending on their price band. Comparing medians only for the same properties with settled ADR estimates in both years (Table 1), City (37 properties) rose from ¥15,212 to ¥18,547, +21.9% — identical to the overall YoY — and Business (323 properties) rose from ¥9,972 to ¥10,822, +8.5% (overall +9.9%). For September, the contribution of composition change was essentially zero for City and just over 1pt for Business, so the jump in YoY is mainly explained by the low prior-year base. In August, by contrast, same-property City growth was +3.4%, about 3pt below the overall +6.2%, meaning newly added properties had pushed the median up. On a same-property basis, the acceleration in YoY from August to September is actually larger than the headline figures suggest.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (settled ADR estimate, tax-excluded equivalent. Same properties = properties with a settled ADR estimate in both the prior-year and current-year month. Values are medians of each property’s monthly settled ADR estimate)

January–September Monthly Trend — Growth Was Uneven, Peaking in Spring and Autumn

Next, the January–September final figures month by month, to check the shape of YoY growth. City-hotel YoY was high early in the year — January +28.8%, February +12.0%, March +16.4% — then settled into the low single digits from spring to summer (April +2.2%, May +6.4%, June +1.2%, July +3.1%), before turning up again in August (+6.2%) and September (+21.9%). On a simple January–September average, 2025 was ¥16,246 and 2026 ¥17,959, a full-period increase of +10.5%.

Business hotels show a somewhat different shape. Growth stayed around double digits through spring — January +14.4%, February +5.4%, March +11.1%, April +18.9%, May +10.0% — then narrowed toward summer (June +6.5%, July +3.6%, August +2.2%) and recovered to +9.9% in September. The simple January–September average rose from ¥9,975 in 2025 to ¥10,870 in 2026, +9.0%, almost the same full-period growth as city hotels. In other words, both segments in reality “rose about 10% across the year,” and September’s double digits are best seen as one fluctuation within that trend.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (settled ADR estimate, tax-excluded equivalent. Solid line = final figures; dotted line = estimate based on current sales)

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (settled ADR estimate, tax-excluded equivalent. Solid line = final figures; dotted line = estimate based on current sales)

Laying out monthly YoY in a table makes the offset peaks and troughs of the two segments easier to see. City peaks in January and September, Business in January and April, and growth slows for both from June to August. Summer in Fukuoka brings strong domestic leisure demand, but prices were already high last year, so YoY growth is structurally harder to achieve.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (settled ADR estimate, tax-excluded equivalent; final figures compared with final figures. N= is the number of properties covered in each month)

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (YoY change in settled ADR estimate, final vs. final)

Occupancy Check — September Estimated OCC: City 87.1%, Business 90.0%, Near Sellout Mid-Holiday

Higher rates mean little for revenue if occupancy falls. Checking September’s daily estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis), the monthly average was 87.1% for city hotels (22 properties / 2,949 rooms, major booking-site listings) and 90.0% for business hotels (175 properties / 22,893 rooms, same basis). By day, Sunday September 20 recorded City 99.8% and Business 99.9%, and the following Monday the 21st (Respect for the Aged Day) City 99.1% and Business 98.7% — on the second and third days of the five-day holiday, rooms were close to sold out. The lowest day was Wednesday the 23rd (Autumnal Equinox Day), at City 76.1% and Business 74.6%: stays on the final night of the holiday, with a workday following, filled less than mid-holiday nights.

By day of week, City averaged 92.8% on Saturdays versus 83.8% on Wednesdays, and Business 92.8% on Saturdays versus 87.8% on Wednesdays. Both segments peak on Saturday, but the weekday dip is shallower for business hotels. October’s monthly averages were even higher — City 92.5% (25 properties / 3,456 rooms) and Business 93.3% (177 properties / 22,883 rooms) — and business hotels shifted to a pattern where weekdays fill more, with Wednesday at 96.8% and Thursday at 95.8%. This suggests that in autumn Fukuoka, weekday business-travel and MICE demand is supporting occupancy. That September’s final ADR held at August levels while occupancy stayed at 87–90% is supporting evidence that the pricing was accepted by demand. The shape of the business-hotel day-of-week trough excluding the five-day holiday is covered in detail in Fukuoka Business Hotels Sep: Sat 92.8%, Sun 89.2% — 85.7% Ex-Holiday.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (estimated OCC, OTA-listed inventory basis. Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest point)

Cross-Check with Published Results — Three REITs’ September ADR Ranged +2.3% to +16.3%; Fukuoka Is in the Upper Band

The settled ADR estimate is derived from OTA and other sales data and serves a different role from operating results that aggregate actual contracted sales. We therefore use the figures of hotel REITs that publish September operating results as a reference. For September 2026, Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (いちごホテルリート投資法人, 3463) reported a portfolio-wide ADR of ¥11,937 (+16.3% YoY) and occupancy of 87.2%; Invincible Investment Corporation (インヴィンシブル投資法人, 8963) reported ADR of ¥15,461 (+7.6%) and occupancy of 85.2% for its 101 domestic hotels; and Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (ジャパン・ホテル・リート投資法人, 8985) reported ADR of ¥20,468 (+2.3%) and occupancy of 85.6% for its 29 hotels with variable rent etc. The three REITs’ YoY ranged from +2.3% to +16.3%; Fukuoka business hotels’ +9.9% sits mid-range, while city hotels’ +21.9% exceeds the top of the band.

The REIT portfolios are spread across Japan and are not Fukuoka-only figures, but they share the month’s character: “September ADR exceeded the prior year nationwide, with growth ranging from single to double digits depending on segment and location.” Placed in this context, Fukuoka’s figures are consistent with the earlier reading — business hotels’ +9.9% is within the national range, while city hotels’ +21.9% needs to be discounted for the low prior-year base. For how the same September looks across all 47 prefectures, see also Business Hotel ADR Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY, Median +7.9%.

Inbound demand also deserves a mention as background. According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) release of October 21, visitor arrivals to Japan in September 2026 (estimate) were 3,103,700, down 5.0% YoY, the second consecutive month below the prior year. By country/region, however, South Korea rose to 842,300 (+25.6%) and Taiwan to 595,600 (+13%), while mainland China fell sharply to 430,800 (−44.5%). Fukuoka’s strength lies in its geographic proximity to South Korea and Taiwan, and the growth of these key source markets even as the national total declined is likely one factor that allowed September to combine high occupancy with higher rates.

Comparison with Other Major Prefectures — The August→September YoY Acceleration Was Not Unique to Fukuoka

To check whether Fukuoka’s September jump was region-specific, we lined up YoY for seven other major prefectures on the same settled ADR estimate (final figures) basis (Table 4). Fukuoka was not the only prefecture where YoY rose sharply from August to September. Among city hotels, Kanagawa went from −3.3% to +15.8%, Hiroshima from +8.4% to +18.9%, and Hokkaido from −11.3% to +0.1% — in each case growth widened by 10pt or more in September. What they share is the September 2025 drop: city-hotel level changes from August to September 2025 were −12.6% in Fukuoka, −15.1% in Kanagawa, −17.9% in Hokkaido and −22.8% in Hiroshima. All four regions fell more than 10% from August in September 2025, and Fukuoka’s +21.9% can be read as resting on the same base effect.

Where Fukuoka’s own strength shows is in full-period growth. Business-hotel YoY on a January–September average was +9.0%, the highest of the eight prefectures compared, and city hotels’ +10.5% ranked behind only Kanagawa (+14.8%) and Aichi (+11.0%). While Tokyo and Kyoto were below the prior year, Fukuoka secured a rise of around 10% across the year without relying on September alone. Note that Osaka cannot be compared on equal terms for September YoY because the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Expo falls in the prior-year period, nor can Aichi, because the Asian Games (September 19 – October 4, 2026) fall in the current year.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (settled ADR estimate, tax-excluded equivalent; YoY of final vs. final figures. N= is the number of properties covered in 2026. January–September is the ratio of simple averages of monthly values. *1 The prior year (2025) includes the Osaka-Kansai Expo period. *2 The current year includes the Asian Games period (September 19 – October 4, 2026))

Current October–November Estimates — City in the ¥22,000s, Business in the ¥14,000s; November Weekends at 80–90% 45 Days Out

Now to the months not yet finalized. The settled ADR estimates for October, November and December 2026 — estimates based on current sales (not final figures) — are City ¥22,069 for October (N=43), ¥22,465 for November (N=42) and ¥20,502 for December (N=42), and Business ¥14,664 for October (N=337), ¥14,960 for November (N=336) and ¥13,631 for December (N=331). All of these will move as sales progress, so a simple comparison with the prior-year final figures (City October ¥18,258 and November ¥20,829; Business October ¥10,450 and November ¥12,368) must wait until the months are finalized. Two things can be confirmed now: current sales are proceeding at a higher price band than finalized September, and the seasonal shape of last year, when rates rose from October to November, is being reproduced this year.

Two tables set out how YoY would look depending on where the current estimates land. Table 5 compares the current estimates with two benchmarks: the level obtained by applying last year’s (2025) September→October/November seasonal shape to this September’s final figure, and the level obtained by applying the January–September average YoY to last year’s October and November. For City, the October current estimate of ¥22,069 almost matches the seasonal-shape level of ¥22,261, whereas for Business the October current estimate of ¥14,664 is about 28% above the seasonal-shape level of ¥11,483. Last year September→October was +4.8%, while the current estimate is +33.8% over this September’s final figure — a height the seasonal shape alone struggles to explain. October’s stay month has ended, but final figures have not yet been reflected, and because the current estimate is observed differently from final figures, it may change when finalized.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (settled ADR estimate, tax-excluded equivalent. Figures in parentheses are vs. prior-year final. Seasonal shape = September 2026 final × (2025 final for the month ÷ September 2025 final). Current estimates are not final figures)

Table 6 is a sensitivity table showing YoY if the final figure comes in a given percentage below the current estimate. The downside at which YoY reaches zero is 17.3% for City October, 7.3% for City November, 28.7% for Business October and 17.3% for Business November — City November turns negative YoY with a 10% downside. City November has a high prior-year final of ¥20,829, and its current estimate is about 12% below the seasonal-shape level (¥25,395), so it has the smallest YoY cushion of the four cells.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (settled ADR estimate, tax-excluded equivalent. Figures in parentheses are vs. prior-year final. Downside percentages are assumptions)

Looking at November booking pace on the booking curve, city hotels (25 properties / 3,354 rooms, major booking-site listings) show Saturday November 7 at 80.5% 45 days out → 85.8% 30 days out → 93.1% at the latest point (7 days out); Saturday November 14 at 93.5% → 95.6% → 96.9% (latest: 14 days out); and Saturday November 21 at 86.5% → 93.6% → 95.0% (latest: 21 days out). Every Saturday had already climbed above 80% at 45 days out. Weekdays — Wednesday November 11 at 70.5% → 78.6% → 87.6% (latest: 11 days out) and Wednesday the 18th at 75.8% → 81.4% → 85.5% (latest: 18 days out) — gained more between 45 days out and the latest point. Business hotels (177 properties / 22,729 rooms, same basis) follow the same shape: Saturday November 14 went from 91.2% at 45 days out to 98.1% at the latest point, and Wednesday November 11 from 61.7% to 86.5%. Weekdays start lower at 45 days out but build nearly 25pt by the final days.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (estimated OCC, OTA-listed inventory basis. City: 25 properties / 3,354 rooms; Business: 177 properties / 22,729 rooms. Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest point)

Saturday November 14 started from a position 6–16pt higher than the other Saturdays, at City 93.5% and Business 91.2% 45 days out. Mid-November in Fukuoka is a period when large events tend to cluster, and on this date the market as a whole appears to have filled early. On days like the 14th, only a few points of last-minute pickup remain, meaning pricing actions needed to be completed before the 45-day mark. By contrast, Saturdays the 7th and 21st gained around 10pt, from 80–87% at 45 days out to 93–95% at the latest point, leaving room to move between 30 days out and the final days.

For Revenue Managers at Fukuoka City and Business Hotels — Implications and Action Plan

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Fukuoka’s September

The first yardstick is “level.” The settled ADR estimate for city hotels went from ¥18,479 in August to ¥18,547 in September, and for business hotels from ¥10,837 to ¥10,958 — both held at August levels. The second yardstick is the “prior-year base”: because September 2025 fell sharply from August, simply holding the same level widened YoY to City +21.9% and Business +9.9%. The third yardstick is “compatibility with occupancy”: September estimated OCC was City 87.1% and Business 90.0%, and on Sunday the 20th, the second day of the holiday, both segments reached the 99% range, with no sign that pricing pushed demand away.

Growth over January–September was City +10.5% and Business +9.0%, both around 10%. September’s double digits are one peak within this full-period trend, and October–November pricing should be built not by “chasing YoY” but by “overlaying this year’s level on last year’s seasonal shape.” Current sales for November are proceeding at estimates of City ¥22,465 and Business ¥14,960, and how far the final figures land at these levels will be the focus of the next monthly report.

Frequently Asked Questions

About the Data

References and Sources

■ Data sources

MetroEngines Research settled ADR estimates (Fukuoka Prefecture city hotels / business hotels, monthly from January 2025 to December 2026; past months are final figures, October 2026 onward are estimates as of November 1, 2026), property-level monthly settled ADR estimates (for same-property comparison), and estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis; daily for September / October 2026 and booking curves for November 2026 stay dates). Comparisons use settled ADR estimates on the same definition for Hiroshima, Kanagawa, Hokkaido, Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka and Aichi. Published results are the September 2026 monthly disclosures of three listed hotel REITs; visitor arrivals are JNTO estimates.

■ Calculation assumptions

YoY is calculated between final figures. The same-property basis is the ratio of medians for properties with settled ADR estimates in both the prior-year and current-year month. The seasonal shape in Table 5 is “September 2026 final × (2025 final for the month ÷ September 2025 final),” and the January–September average scenario is prior-year final for the month × (1 + January–September average YoY). The downside percentages in Table 6 (0–30%) are assumptions, not forecasts.

■ Limitations and caveats

The settled ADR estimate is an estimate that differs from each property’s actual contracted rates and accounting figures, and current estimates are observed differently from final figures, so they may change when finalized. Estimated OCC is on an OTA-listed inventory basis and runs higher than actual room occupancy. Published REIT figures are national portfolios, not Fukuoka-only, and their tax and calculation bases are not aligned with the settled ADR estimate. YoY for Osaka (Expo in the prior year) and Aichi (Asian Games in the current year) includes event factors.