Between January and mid-October 2026, 72 new properties with 1,778 rooms opened in Fukuoka Prefecture (based on registrations in our database; opening dates January 1 to October 15, 2026). With less than ten months elapsed, that already exceeds the full-year 2025 total of 64 properties and 1,376 rooms on both counts. Broken down by property type, however, 72% of the rooms (1,288) are concentrated in 14 business and city hotels, while small formats such as hostels and vacation rentals pushed up the property count. On the price side, settled-month data show business hotels at an estimated settled ADR of ¥10,958 (N=342) in September 2026, up 9.9% from ¥9,972 (N=331) a year earlier, and city hotels at ¥18,547 (N=43), up 21.9% from ¥15,212 (N=37). New supply and rising rates are moving in the same phase. This article layers the composition of new supply, settled-month estimated ADR, the shape of September estimated OCC and the booking curves leading into the November Grand Sumo Kyushu Basho, and sets out which yardsticks revenue managers should use while supply is growing.

Scope: business and city hotels in Fukuoka Prefecture (estimated settled ADR: business N=342, city N=43 properties; estimated OCC: fixed cohorts of 178 business hotels / 22,837 rooms and 23 city hotels / 3,321 rooms). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of October 18, 2026.

New Supply — Of 72 Properties and 1,778 Rooms, 72% of Rooms Sit in 14 Business and City Hotels

First, the overall supply picture. New openings in Fukuoka Prefecture registered in our database reached 72 properties and 1,778 rooms for openings from January 1 to October 15, 2026, already surpassing the full-year 2025 total of 64 properties and 1,376 rooms. Looking only at the property count suggests an “opening rush,” but splitting by property type paints a very different picture. The 27 vacation rentals add up to just 46 rooms, the 23 hostels to 308 rooms, and small properties with 1–9 rooms account for 43 properties (132 rooms), more than half of the count.

By contrast, business and city hotels number only 14 properties but carry 1,288 rooms, 72% of the total. City hotels in particular contribute 761 rooms from just 5 properties, making them large on a per-property basis. 2025 was a business-hotel-led year, with 18 business hotels (949 rooms) against 2 city hotels (212 rooms); in 2026 the weight has shifted toward city hotels, which reads as a year in which supply in the upper price bands arrived in a block.

2026 covers registered openings from January 1 to October 15; 2025 is full-year. Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings, N=72 / 64 properties); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

By size class, properties with 50 or more rooms account for 11 properties and 1,263 rooms, or 71% of rooms; even restricting to 100+ rooms leaves 6 properties and 917 rooms. Compared with 7 properties and 851 rooms of 50+ in 2025, large projects have clearly thickened this year. Timing is also skewed: September alone saw 8 properties and 462 rooms open, of which business and city hotels accounted for 5 properties and 438 rooms. A sizeable block of rooms entered the market at the start of the second half, so the estimated OCC and booking curves from September onward discussed below should be understood as observations with this supply already in place.

All property types. Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings, N=72 / 64 properties); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Estimated Settled ADR — Business +9.9% in Settled September; City +21.9%, but Including a Sample Shift

With supply stacking up, how did prices move? Comparing settled months January–September 2026 with the same months a year earlier, business hotels beat the prior year in all nine months, ranging from a peak of +18.9% in April to a low of +2.2% in August (¥10,837 vs. ¥10,606). September came in at ¥10,958 (N=342) vs. ¥9,972 (N=331), or +9.9%, so the growth that narrowed over the summer has widened again. January–September 2026 levels stayed within a ¥10,030–¥11,738 band, and the sample was stable at N=338–342 properties, so the business-hotel increase can reasonably be read as a market-wide step-up in rate levels rather than a composition change.

City hotels look different. September’s ¥18,547 (N=43) is up a large 21.9% from ¥15,212 (N=37), but two factors overlap here. First, last September’s ¥15,212 was the second-lowest month of 2025 for city hotels after January (¥15,198), so the base is low. Second, the sample grew by six properties, from N=37 last year to N=43 this year. Because estimated settled ADR is an area-median metric, new properties joining the sample can move the median itself even if existing properties do not change their prices. If the 5 city hotels (761 rooms) that opened in 2026 sit in the upper price band, part of the +21.9% should be read not as “the market getting more expensive” but as “a change in who is in the market.” The fact that September stands out against city-hotel growth of +6.2% in August and +3.1% in July supports this reading. How growth by property type diverged through settled August is tracked month by month in Fukuoka ADR Splits: City +6.2%, Business +2.2% in August 2026.

Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, monthly). Solid lines are settled values; dotted lines are estimates based on current sales status. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Settled month vs. settled month. N= is the number of properties used for the estimate. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The seasonal shape is also worth noting. In 2025 settled data, November was the highest month of the year for both business and city hotels, at ¥12,368 (N=336) and ¥20,829 (N=38) respectively. It is the month when the Kyushu Basho and convention demand overlap, making it the most important month on Fukuoka’s pricing calendar. For October–December 2026, current estimates based on sales status show business hotels at ¥14,533 in October, ¥14,796 in November and ¥13,982 in December, and city hotels at ¥21,367, ¥23,484 and ¥20,335, again with November highest. These are estimates derived from current listings, however, and a straight comparison with settled values has to wait until each month settles.

Estimates based on current sales status; may change when the month settles. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Comparison with Major Prefectures — Business +9.9% Is in the Same Band as Hokkaido and Okinawa, Not a Fukuoka Outlier

To test whether Fukuoka’s growth is market-specific, we lined up September 2026 for eight major prefectures using the same definition of estimated settled ADR (settled months, by property type). Fukuoka’s business-hotel +9.9% falls in roughly the same band as Hokkaido (+8.9%), Okinawa (+9.4%) and Hiroshima (+12.1%). August was similar too, with Fukuoka at +2.2% against Hokkaido +2.5% and Okinawa +3.3%, so even the trajectory of growth looks alike. The natural reading is that Fukuoka is part of a broader step-up in rates across regional hub cities.

The prefectures with large year-on-year swings have either an unusual base or an unusual event in the current year. Osaka’s −34.0% reflects the comparison with September 2025, when Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai was underway, while Aichi’s +53.2% likely reflects the Asian Games (Aichi-Nagoya), which opened on September 19, 2026, landing in the current year. Tokyo business hotels rose only 2.2% and city hotels fell 10.3%, and Kyoto came in below the prior year for both types. For city hotels, Fukuoka’s +21.9% sits on the high side alongside Hiroshima’s +18.9%, but Fukuoka’s sample grew by six properties (N=37→43), making it more exposed to composition effects than Hiroshima (N=29→31), and should be discounted accordingly.

Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, settled months). N= is the number of properties used for the September 2026 estimate. Prior-year N (business / city): Fukuoka 331 / 37, Hokkaido 419 / 74, Okinawa 193 / 11, Hiroshima 186 / 29, Tokyo 894 / 107, Kyoto 319 / 58, Osaka 498 / 91, Aichi 324 / 30. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Estimated OCC — September at 90.0% Business and 87.1% City, with Holidays and Saturdays Setting the Ceiling

Next, the shape of occupancy after the new supply arrived. September 2026 estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory, observed from 45 days before the stay date to the latest point) averaged 90.0% for business hotels (178 properties / 22,837 rooms; 175–181 properties depending on the day) and 87.1% for city hotels (23 properties / 3,321 rooms; 21–25 depending on the day). The month’s peak was the five-day holiday of September 19–23, bracketed by Respect for the Aged Day (21st) and Autumnal Equinox Day (23rd): on Sunday, September 20, business hotels hit 99.9% and city hotels 99.8%, and on Monday the 21st (holiday) 98.7% and 99.1%, meaning OTA-listed inventory was all but gone. The trough fell on the last day of the holiday, Autumnal Equinox Day on Wednesday the 23rd, at 74.6% for business and 76.1% for city hotels, clearly showing that demand drops for stays on the last night of a holiday when the next day is a working day.

Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory), September 2026, fixed cohorts of 178 business / 23 city hotels. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Averaged by day of week, business hotels peak on Saturday at 92.8%, followed by Monday (90.8%) and Tuesday (90.7%), with Wednesday lowest at 87.8%. City hotels also peak on Saturday at 92.8%, but their midweek dip is deeper than for business hotels, at 83.8% on Wednesday and 84.5% on Thursday, reflecting thin midweek leisure demand. The numbers show the different weekly shapes by type: Fukuoka business hotels fill early in the week on business travel, while city hotels fill on weekend leisure.

Day-of-week averages for September 2026. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

October to date (18 days, the 1st through the 18th) is running above September, at 92.4% for business hotels (179 properties / 22,829 rooms) and 92.1% for city hotels (25 properties / 3,354 rooms). Saturday, October 10 reached 98.0% (business) and 96.9% (city), and Thursday the 15th 98.2% and 98.0%, so even some weekdays are seeing listed inventory nearly exhausted, while Monday the 12th (holiday), the last day of a three-day weekend, dropped to 82.1% and 86.6%, the same shape as September 23. Coming right after 438 business and city hotel rooms were added in September, this reads as a phase in which the new supply is being absorbed.

Booking Curves — A Saturday During the Kyushu Basho Was Already at 90% 45 Days Out

So how is forward demand building? The Grand Sumo Kyushu Basho opens on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at Fukuoka Kokusai Center, with the final day on Sunday the 22nd. The table below shows estimated OCC at 45 days out, 30 days out and the latest point for Saturdays and Wednesdays from late October through November, including the tournament period (fixed cohorts of 179 business hotels / 22,829 rooms and 24 city hotels / 3,331 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites).

Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory). “—” means the stay date has not yet reached that lead time. “During basho” marks the Kyushu Basho tournament period (November 8–22). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The standout is Saturday, November 14, day 7 of the tournament. Business hotels were already at 91.2% 45 days out, 95.5% at 30 days and 96.0% at the latest reading 28 days out, so OTA-listed inventory was nearly gone more than a month ahead. City hotels followed the same path, from 93.5% at 45 days to 95.9% at the latest. Saturday the 7th, the eve of opening day, was at 75.1% 45 days out and 88.1% at the latest (21 days out) for business hotels, and Saturday the 21st, the eve of the final day, at 85.3% and 91.1% (35 days out), both building to high levels. Interestingly, Saturday the 28th, after the tournament, started at 89.3% (business) and 88.9% (city) 45 days out, on par with the in-tournament Saturdays. November in Fukuoka is a month when Saturdays fill early, with or without the Kyushu Basho.

Wednesdays look different, even during the tournament. Wednesday the 11th was at 61.8% 45 days out, 70.9% at 30 days and 74.6% at the latest (25 days out) for business hotels, and Wednesday the 18th at 66.6% 45 days out and 74.8% at the latest (32 days out), building from a point 19–29 pt below the Saturday of the same week at 45 days out. Given that Wednesday the 4th before the tournament was at 56.7% 45 days out and 71.1% at the latest (18 days out), and Wednesday the 25th after it at 61.8% and 64.2% (39 days out), Wednesdays during the tournament are somewhat higher, but for weekdays it is closer to reality to see a few points added on top of a normal weekday curve than to expect the Kyushu Basho to fill rooms in one go. How far weekday rates during the tournament were pushed up in last year’s results is tested on a same-property panel in Sumo Kyushu Basho 2026: Fukuoka Weekday Rates +9.7% Actual, +3.3% Now.

Booking curves (business hotels, 179 properties / 22,829 rooms). X-axis is days remaining until the stay date. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The difference in how weekdays and Saturdays build is even clearer for nearer dates. Business hotels on Saturday, October 24 went from 88.9% 45 days out to 94.2% at 30 days, 97.1% at 15 days and 97.6% at the latest (7 days out), a gain of only +8.7 pt over 45 days. Wednesday the 28th, by contrast, went from 62.6% at 45 days to 71.1% at 30 days, 86.8% at 15 days and 89.6% at the latest (11 days out), gaining +27.0 pt over the same span, with +18.5 pt of that coming between 30 days out and the latest reading. Saturday the 31st also gained +18.0 pt, from 73.8% at 45 days to 91.8% at the latest (14 days out). Saturdays fill early with a small late gain; Wednesdays fill late but gain a lot. With this pattern as the baseline, it becomes clear that the right time to move price differs by day of week. For how the same Saturdays differ across four property types including ryokan and resorts, see Fukuoka Saturday Booking Curves: Ryokan 59.2%→88.4%, Business 97.8%.

Sensitivity Analysis — For Kyushu Basho Saturdays, How Far Can Occupancy Fall for a Given Price Increase?

As the booking curves show, the market’s estimated OCC for Saturdays during the tournament was already around 90% 45 days out. If you step up your rate ladder in this band, how far can occupancy fall while revenue holds? The table below estimates revenue per available room (RevPAR) for combinations of price increase and final estimated OCC, using the November 2026 estimated settled ADR for business hotels (current estimate ¥14,796, N=336) as the hold-price baseline. The bottom row shows the estimated OCC needed to match the RevPAR (¥14,204) of holding price and selling through to 96.0%, the market’s latest reading for Saturday, November 14.

Estimate. RevPAR = estimated settled ADR × (1 + price increase) × final estimated OCC. Baseline ADR is the current estimate for November 2026 business hotels (monthly average, tax-exclusive equivalent, N=336); baseline estimated OCC is the market’s latest reading for Saturday, November 14 (28 days out). These are not any individual hotel’s actual figures. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The reading is simple: raise price by 5% and, as long as final estimated OCC is 91.4% or higher, you keep the same revenue per room as holding price and selling through to 96.0%. At +10% the break-even is 87.3%, at +15% it is 83.5%. Because the market for Saturday, November 14 was already at 91.2% 45 days out, a +5% step for that date is a conservative setting that pays off as long as the 45-day level holds to the end. Saturday, November 28, after the tournament, also started at a similar 89.3% 45 days out, so the same logic applies to November Saturdays in general, not just the Kyushu Basho.

Do not apply the same table to Wednesdays, however. Even during the tournament, Wednesdays were only at 61.8–66.6% 45 days out and follow a pattern of building from 30 days out to the latest point, so raising price early makes it easy to miss late demand. Concentrating rate-increase decisions on Saturdays and moving on Wednesdays only after confirming late pickup is the day-by-day split consistent with the observations in the preceding sections.

For Revenue Managers at Fukuoka Business and City Hotels — Implications and Action Plan

All figures are market values presented in this article. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Summary — Three Yardsticks for a Market with Growing Supply

To sum up, Fukuoka in 2026 is seeing numerous small openings and room-heavy large openings at the same time; prices are up 9.9% for business and 21.9% for city hotels in settled September; occupancy was 90.0% for business and 87.1% for city hotels in September; and Saturdays during the Kyushu Basho are reaching the high-80s to 90% range 45 days out. The yardsticks revenue managers should keep boil down to three.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Does the count of new openings include small vacation rentals and hostels?
Yes. The 72 properties and 1,778 rooms in this article are registrations across all property types, including 27 vacation rentals (46 rooms) and 23 hostels (308 rooms). Limited to business and city hotels, the figure is 14 properties and 1,288 rooms.

Q. Why did city hotels’ estimated settled ADR rise 21.9% in September?
Last September was the second-lowest month of 2025 after January, and in addition the number of properties used for the estimate grew from N=37 to N=43, so the figure includes a composition change from newly opened properties joining the sample. Note that it does not reflect market-wide rate increases alone.

Q. Is estimated OCC the same as actual room occupancy?
No. It is estimated from how inventory listed on OTAs and similar channels is being consumed, and because unlisted rooms are counted as consumed, it runs higher than actual occupancy. That is why we show the number of properties and rooms covered; we recommend using it to read the daily and day-of-week shape rather than the level itself.

Q. Is Fukuoka’s estimated settled ADR growth high compared with other cities?
Business hotels’ settled September +9.9% is in roughly the same band as Hokkaido (+8.9%), Okinawa (+9.4%) and Hiroshima (+12.1%). Osaka (−34.0%) is comparing against the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai period, and Aichi (+53.2%) has the Asian Games in the current year, so large year-on-year swings reflect unusual bases or events.

Q. If I raise prices on Kyushu Basho Saturdays, how far can occupancy fall?
In an estimate based on the November 2026 estimated settled ADR for business hotels (current estimate ¥14,796), the final estimated OCC needed to maintain the same RevPAR as holding price and selling through to 96.0% is 91.4% at +5%, 87.3% at +10% and 83.5% at +15%. These are guidelines using market values, not any individual hotel’s results.

About the Data

References and Sources

■ Data sources

New openings are properties in Fukuoka Prefecture registered in the MetroEngines Research property database (2026: opening dates January 1 to October 15; 2025: full-year; all property types). Estimated settled ADR is from the same research’s monthly aggregates by property type (business and city hotels, settled months and current estimates), and the eight-prefecture comparison uses the same definition. Estimated OCC and booking curves are fixed cohorts based on listed inventory on major booking sites (September 2026, October 1–18, and stay dates from October 24 to November 28). The Kyushu Basho schedule is from press reports of the Japan Sumo Association’s published schedule.

■ Estimation assumptions

Sensitivity-analysis RevPAR = estimated settled ADR × (1 + price increase) × final estimated OCC. Baseline ADR is the current estimate for November 2026 business hotels, ¥14,796 (monthly average, tax-exclusive equivalent, N=336); baseline estimated OCC is the market’s latest reading of 96.0% for Saturday, November 14 (28 days out). Price increases are in five steps from 0 to +20%; final estimated OCC uses three scenarios of 85%, 90% and 95%. Break-even estimated OCC = 96.0% ÷ (1 + price increase). The monthly average ADR is used as a proxy for a single Saturday; daily price levels are not modeled.

■ Limitations

Estimated settled ADR is a median-based area estimate and includes composition changes from increases or decreases in the sample (N). October–December 2026 are current estimates based on listings on sale and may change when each month settles. Estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as consumed and therefore runs higher than actual room occupancy. New-opening counts are based on confirmed listings, and the most recent months may rise as more listings appear. The sensitivity analysis is a guideline based on market values and does not represent any individual property’s results or price elasticity. Future opening plans are not captured in our data.

• ABEMA TIMES, “Grand Sumo tournament and tour schedule” (November tournament 11/8–22, Fukuoka Kokusai Center): https://times.abema.tv/sumo/schedule
• Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun (Kyodo News), “Kyushu Basho ‘gomen-fuda’ sign erected; advance tickets for opening day sell out on first day for second straight year,” October 8, 2026: https://kumanichi.com/articles/2044389
• Internal data: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team