Splitting Fukuoka Prefecture’s lodging supply by property type and tracking booking pace for Saturday October 24, Saturday October 31 and Saturday November 7 through estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) reveals clearly distinct fill patterns by type. For Saturday October 24, business hotels were already at 88.9% 45 days before the stay date (N=178 properties / 22,797 rooms), reached 94.2% at 30 days out and 97.8% at the latest reading (8 days out) — a total gain of only 8.9pt. Ryokan, by contrast, climbed from 59.2% at 45 days out (N=52 properties / 952 rooms) to 78.8% at 30 days out and 88.4% at the latest reading, adding 29.2pt. Even on the same Saturday, the gap between “types that fill early” and “types that catch up later” stands out. This article lines up three fixed checkpoints (45 days out, 30 days out, latest) for four property types across three Saturdays, adds a weekday comparison, September actuals by day of week and monthly estimated settled ADR, and sets out a yardstick for inventory management by property type.

Coverage: Fukuoka Prefecture business hotels N=178–179 properties (22,797–22,829 rooms), city hotels N=24 properties (3,331 rooms), ryokan N=51–52 properties (948–952 rooms), resort hotels N=13–14 properties (742–757 rooms; small sample). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions for both are at the end of the article. Data as of: October 17, 2026.

Three Checkpoints for Saturday, October 24 — Ryokan Climb from 59.2% to 88.4%; Business Hotels Start at 88.9% and Reach 97.8%

First, look at the nearest Saturday, October 24, at three points: 45 days out (observed September 9), 30 days out (observed September 24) and latest (observed October 16, 8 days out). A large concert was scheduled at the dome stadium in Fukuoka City that day (Reference ①), and a defining feature was that all four types started from high levels at 45 days out. Business hotels moved 88.9%→94.2%→97.8%, adding +5.3pt from 45 to 30 days out and +3.6pt from 30 days out to the latest reading — steadily absorbing the remaining inventory. At the latest reading, the share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and other channels (sold-out property rate, estimated) reached 64.6%, and remaining inventory had narrowed to 495 of 22,797 rooms.

The ryokan curve has a different shape. At 59.2% at 45 days out, 78.8% at 30 days out and 88.4% at the latest reading, ryokan added +19.6pt from 45 to 30 days out and +9.6pt from 30 days out to the latest reading, for a total gain of 29.2pt — more than three times that of business hotels. City hotels sat in between at 82.7%→89.8%→96.5% (N=24 properties / 3,331 rooms), adding +7.1pt and +6.7pt evenly and approaching business-hotel levels at the latest reading. Resort hotels stayed high at 87.5%→90.9%→95.9% (N=14 properties / 757 rooms), but swings are large because of the small sample — the figure fell to 79.7% the day after the 45-day reading — so these readings should be treated with a margin.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Fukuoka Prefecture; stays on October 24, 2026; estimated OCC = based on OTA-listed inventory; observations from 45 to 8 days before the stay date)

The key point is that even on the same Saturday under the same demand event, “when rooms fill” differs by property type. Business and resort hotels had already secured the high-80% range at 45 days out; for this pattern, actions from 30 days out narrow down to how to sell the last few percent of inventory. Ryokan still had 40% of inventory open at 45 days out and follow a pattern of adding close to 20% in the two weeks to 30 days out, so turning cautious based on the 45-day figure alone makes it easy to miss opportunities. For the distribution of property-level inventory depletion for October 24 stays, see our separate analysis, which classifies properties by depletion pattern.

Extending to October 31 and November 7 — The 45→30-Day Gain Holds at +15pt for Ryokan and About +9pt for Business Hotels

To strip out the special factor of the concert date, the next table lines up the following Saturdays, October 31 and November 7, at the same three points. Because the latest reading shares a common observation date (October 16), it represents 15 days out for October 31 stays and 22 days out for November 7 stays.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated OCC = based on OTA-listed inventory. Sold-out property rate = share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and other channels, estimated. Latest reading observed October 16, 2026)

Across the three Saturdays, the 45→30-day gain stays within a roughly constant band for each type. Business hotels added +5.3pt, +8.9pt and +8.8pt — about +9pt once the concert date is excluded — while city hotels were somewhat smaller at +7.1pt, +8.4pt and +5.3pt. Ryokan added +19.6pt, +15.4pt and +15.7pt, at least +15pt in all three weeks, showing that the two weeks from 45 to 30 days out are the biggest booking window for ryokan. Resort hotels varied widely at +3.4pt, +10.5pt and +18.2pt, but this reflects the small sample (13–14 properties), in which a change in a single property’s listed inventory shows up directly in the figures, so we refrain from describing it as a trend.

In the stretch from 30 days out to the latest reading, the order flips. For October 31 stays, business hotels added +8.8pt, from 82.7% at 30 days out to 91.5% at 15 days out, outpacing ryokan (+5.2pt) and city hotels (+4.0pt) over the same stretch. Business-hotel Saturdays gain little when the 45-day level is high, but keep growing after 30 days out when the 45-day level is in the 70% range — a pattern that could be described as “picking up the unfilled rooms close in.” Remaining inventory at the latest reading also shows business hotels with the largest absolute numbers, 1,933 rooms for October 31 stays and 2,780 rooms for November 7 stays, making them the type with the most room to sell over the remaining two to three weeks.

Weekday Comparison — Business-Hotel Wednesdays Go from 62.6% at 45 Days Out to 90.0% Close In, Three Times the Saturday Gain

Saturday patterns split by property type — but what about weekdays? Lining up Wednesday, October 28 and Wednesday, November 11 at the same three points, the business-hotel weekday curve looks completely different from Saturday. For October 28 stays, business hotels were at 62.6% at 45 days out, 71.1% at 30 days out and 90.0% at the latest reading (12 days out), adding 27.4pt from 45 days out. Compared with the same type on Saturday, October 24, which moved only 8.9pt from 88.9% at 45 days out to 97.8% at the latest reading, the weekday gain is three times larger. At 12 days out, the gap to Saturday had narrowed to 7.4pt (97.4% vs 90.0%), showing that business-hotel weekday demand concentrates in the final two weeks.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated OCC = based on OTA-listed inventory. Latest reading observed October 16, 2026)

What this comparison shows is a two-tier structure for business hotels: “Saturdays fill early, weekdays fill late.” Saturdays are already in the mid-70% to near-90% range at 45 days out, while Wednesdays stay in the low 60s at 45 days out and around 70% even at 30 days out, selling the last 30% of inventory in the final four weeks. November 11 stays were at 74.2% at 26 days out with a large 5,889 rooms remaining; whether progress from here follows the same trajectory as October 28 stays is the key read for November weekdays. Ryokan added +22.2pt from 45 days out to the latest reading even on a Wednesday, confirming they are a type that builds late regardless of day of week. For a case that reads the 45-day snapshot of Fukuoka business and city hotels through the skew of weekend demand, see also Hakozakigu Hojoya 2026: Fukuoka Demand Peaks Opening Weekend.

Day-of-Week Pattern in September Actuals — Saturday Peaks for All Four Types; Ryokan Open an 18pt Gap with Thursday at 64.3%

As a baseline for reading forward curves, the next chart averages daily actuals (estimated OCC, based on OTA-listed inventory) for the completed month of September 2026 by day of week. Note that September included a five-day holiday stretch on the 19th–23rd, which pushes up the Monday and Tuesday averages somewhat. Even so, Saturday was the week’s highest day for all four types: business hotels 92.8% (N=175–181 properties), city hotels 92.8% (N=21–25 properties), ryokan 82.3% (N=47–57 properties) and resort hotels 86.1% (N=11–14 properties).

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Fukuoka Prefecture; daily estimated OCC for September 2026 (based on OTA-listed inventory) averaged by day of week. Monthly averages: business 90.0%, city 87.1%, ryokan 72.6%, resort 77.8%)

What stands out is the gap between Saturday and the week’s lowest day. Business hotels were at 92.8% on Saturday vs 87.8% on Wednesday, a gap of just 5.0pt, and city hotels 92.8% on Saturday vs 83.8% on Wednesday, only 9.0pt. Ryokan, by contrast, showed an 18.0pt spread, 82.3% on Saturday vs 64.3% on Thursday, and resort hotels a 12.3pt gap, 86.1% on Saturday vs 73.8% on Friday. In other words, ryokan and resorts are types that “earn on Saturday and sit empty on weekdays,” and a weekend curve that fails to rise early directly affects revenue for the whole week. The level gap in September monthly averages — business hotels 90.0% and city hotels 87.1% vs ryokan 72.6% and resorts 77.8% — can be understood as the accumulation of this day-of-week disparity.

Saturdays from Mid-November and Estimated Settled ADR — 11/14 Is Above 87% for All Four Types at 45 Days Out; September Settled Rates Show City Hotels +21.9%

So how do November Saturdays look? Saturday, November 14 has a two-day concert scheduled at the dome stadium in Fukuoka City (Reference ②). At 45 days out, all four types started above 87% — business 91.2%, city 93.5%, ryokan 87.5%, resort 91.1% — and at the latest reading (29 days out) had reached business 95.8% (961 rooms remaining), city 95.8% (141 rooms remaining), ryokan 96.7% (31 rooms remaining) and resort 96.1% (29 rooms remaining). Saturday, November 21 is the first day of a three-day weekend running through Monday the 23rd (national holiday); at 36 days out, ryokan were at 98.5% (14 rooms remaining), resorts 95.4%, business hotels 90.5% and city hotels 90.0% — an unusual pattern in which ryokan lead. Saturday, November 28 also has a two-day concert at the same venue (Reference ③); at 43 days out, business hotels were at 89.7%, city 90.3%, ryokan 85.0% (N=51 properties / 948 rooms) and resort 93.0%, already close to the 30-day levels of the October Saturdays.

Now the rate side. Comparing completed months on monthly estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent), business hotels in September 2026 were at ¥10,958 (N=342 properties), +9.9% from ¥9,972 (N=331 properties) a year earlier, and city hotels at ¥18,547 (N=43 properties), +21.9% from ¥15,212 (N=37 properties) — rates for both urban types clearly exceeded the prior year. Ryokan were at ¥12,262 (N=72 properties), −4.9% from ¥12,900 (N=74 properties), and resort hotels at ¥16,585 (N=14 properties), +18.7% from ¥13,967 (N=13 properties). October and November are estimates based on current sales: business hotels ¥14,533 (October, N=337 properties) and ¥14,796 (November, N=336 properties), city hotels ¥21,367 (October, N=43 properties) and ¥23,484 (November, N=42 properties) — higher than the September settled figures — but these can shift with sales through month-end, so a direct comparison with the prior year’s settled figures should wait for the month to close.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR, tax-excluded equivalent. October and November are estimates based on current sales and may change)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Fukuoka Prefecture; estimated settled ADR, tax-excluded equivalent. Solid line = settled figures; dashed line = estimates based on current sales)

Viewed year over year, business hotels have exceeded the prior-year month in every month from January to September 2026, and city hotels have also topped the prior year in most months, including June and September. November was the annual peak month for both types last year (business ¥12,368, city ¥20,829), and current 2026 estimates follow the same pattern. Since this is a month where the curve-side fact that “November Saturdays are high from 45 days out” overlaps with the rate-side fact that “November is the annual peak,” the focus of selling remaining inventory shifts from adding occupancy to capturing rate. For how YoY on a settled-month basis has diverged by property type, Fukuoka ADR Splits: City +6.2%, Business +2.2% tracks January–August 2026.

For Revenue Managers Running Business, City, Ryokan and Resort Properties in Fukuoka Prefecture — Implications and Action Plan

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (decision-trigger figures are market values from this article)

Summary — Measure Inventory Management by Property Type at Three Points: 45-Day Ramp-Up, 30-Day Remaining Inventory and Close-In Gain

To sum up, the pattern of each property type on Fukuoka Prefecture’s Saturday booking curves is defined by three points. First, the ramp-up at 45 days out: business hotels (73.8–91.2%) and resorts (75.3–92.9%) are high, while ryokan (59.2–71.0%, excluding November holiday and concert dates) are low. Second, the gain from 45 to 30 days out: there are bands by type — ryokan +15pt or more three weeks running, business hotels about +9pt, city hotels +5–8pt. Third, the gain from 30 days out to close-in: the range narrows to +2–10pt for all types, and from here it becomes a question of combining remaining room count and rate. Mapping your own curve onto these three points and comparing it with the market bands to pinpoint “in which stretch you are behind” is likely the starting point for inventory management by property type.

Frequently Asked Questions

About the Data

References and Sources

■ Data sources

OTA-listed inventory and published price data compiled by MetroEngines Research (lodging properties in Fukuoka Prefecture; four types: business hotels, city hotels, ryokan and resort hotels). Estimated OCC uses booking-pace snapshots for stays from October 24 to November 28, 2026 (observed September 9 to October 16, 2026) and daily actuals for September 2026; estimated settled ADR uses monthly aggregates for 2025–2026. Concert dates are from the event information in ①–④ below.

■ Calculation assumptions

Fixed checkpoints are 45 days out, 30 days out and latest (as observed on October 16, 2026; 8–43 days out depending on stay date); observations earlier than 45 days out are not used. N for each stay date is the number of covered properties for that date. Monthly estimated settled ADR is the median of estimated settled rates by property type; October and November 2026 are estimates based on current sales.

■ Limitations and caveats

Estimated OCC is based on OTA-listed inventory; its definition differs from actual room occupancy and it runs higher. Resort hotels are a small sample of 13–14 properties, so changes in a single property’s listed inventory readily show up in the figures. September 2026 included a five-day holiday stretch on the 19th–23rd, which affects day-of-week averages. Estimated settled ADR for October and November may change with sales through month-end.

① Stray Kids at Mizuho PayPay Dome Fukuoka, Saturday October 24, 2026 — concert information (live event information)
② Fujii Kaze at Mizuho PayPay Dome Fukuoka, Saturday November 14 – Sunday November 15, 2026 — concert information (live event information)
③ YOASOBI at Mizuho PayPay Dome Fukuoka, Saturday November 28 – Sunday November 29, 2026 — concert information (live event information)
④ YOASOBI announces 10-venue dome and stadium tour (Real Sound, December 2025)
Related article: Fukuoka Oct 24: 48.9% Sold Out at 14 Days Out, Median 1.1% Left — Splitting Inventory Depletion Patterns Across 88 Properties