Ahead of the Grand Sumo Kyushu Basho (Sunday, November 8 to Sunday, November 22, 2026, at Fukuoka Kokusai Center), business hotels in Hakata Ward, Fukuoka City, show clearly different booking build-ups depending on the stay date. Lining up the booking curves by stay date as of November 4, 2026 (estimated OCC based on OTA-listed inventory, N=70 properties / 10,845 rooms), Saturday, November 21 — day 14 of the tournament and the first day of a three-day weekend — had already reached 98.1% at 18 days out, while the final day (senshuraku) on Sunday, November 22 stood at 88.5% at 19 days out and the last day of the long weekend, Monday, November 23 (public holiday), at 76.4% at 20 days out: a gap of more than 20pt across the three days of the same weekend. On weekdays, the first half of the tournament (Wednesday, November 11) stood at 81.9% at 22 days out, the second half (Wednesday, November 18) at 87.9%, and the post-tournament Wednesday, November 25 at 81.5% — so even during the tournament, first-week weekdays sit at almost the same level as after it. Rather than selling the 15 days as a single block, this article sets out the material for telling apart each stay date’s pattern and selling each one differently.

Coverage: business hotels in Hakata Ward, Fukuoka City, N=70 properties / 10,845 rooms (all-segment reference values: N=149–154 properties / 12,904–13,212 rooms). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions for both are at the end of the article. Data as of: November 4, 2026.

Overlapping Demand in Hakata Ward in November — Sumo Is Not the Only Driver

First, as a premise, Hakata Ward sees demand beyond the Kyushu Basho between November 8 and 22. The opening day, Sunday, November 8, is also race day for the Fukuoka Marathon 2026, with runner registration on Friday, November 6 and Saturday, November 7 (confirmed in Fukuoka City press releases). On the tournament’s middle weekend, Saturday, November 14 and Sunday, November 15, large concerts are scheduled on two consecutive days at Mizuho PayPay Dome Fukuoka. In addition, Saturday, November 21 through Monday, November 23 (Labor Thanksgiving Day) near the end of the tournament form a three-day weekend, with the final day on November 22 falling in the middle of it. The stay-date differences below therefore cannot be attributed to a “sumo effect” alone; this article reads the shape of booking progress as the combined result of sumo, the long weekend and other events.

The event schedules above are based on the public information listed in the references at the end of this article. The estimated OCC in this article is derived from how OTA-listed inventory is being absorbed; it does not measure the attendance at each event or the lodging demand itself.

Booking Curves by Stay Date — A Gap of More Than 20pt Across the Three-Day Weekend

The table below lines up estimated OCC for Hakata Ward business hotels (N=70 properties / 10,845 rooms) at three fixed points: 45 days out, 30 days out and the latest observation. Because the latest observation falls at a different number of days out for each stay date, the remaining lead time (LT) is shown alongside.

Hakata Ward, Fukuoka City, business hotels, N=70 properties / 10,845 rooms. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory). Based on observations from 45 days before each stay date to the latest. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Three patterns can be read from the table. First, Saturdays had reached 80–90% by 45 days out regardless of the tournament; Saturday, November 14, where the dome concert overlaps with the middle day, was already at 95.7% at 45 days out and almost full at 99.3% by 11 days out. The post-tournament Saturday, November 28 was also high at 91.2% at 45 days out, so for Hakata Ward business hotels a November Saturday fills early independently of sumo. Second, the three-day weekend looks different on its first, middle and last days. Saturday, November 21 follows the Saturday pattern at 98.1% at 18 days out, whereas the final day, Sunday, November 22, stays at 88.5% at 19 days out and the last day of the long weekend, Monday, November 23 (holiday), at 76.4% at 20 days out — a staircase of more than 20pt within the same weekend. Third, weekdays progress differently in the first and second halves of the tournament. Day 4, Wednesday, November 11, built up 24.4pt from 67.1% at 45 days out to 91.5% at 8 days out, while day 11, Wednesday, November 18, started somewhat higher at 74.2% at 45 days out.

Hakata Ward, Fukuoka City, business hotels, N=70 properties / 10,845 rooms. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory), based on observations from 45 days before each stay date to the latest. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

In terms of curve shape, Saturday, November 14 was close to the ceiling already at 45 days out and barely moved as the lead time shortened — an “early-fill” pattern. Saturday, November 21 added almost 10pt over the final month, from 88.2% at 45 days out to 94.2% at 30 days out and 98.1% at 18 days out — a “long-weekend first-day late push” pattern. The final day, Sunday, November 22, tracked 9–12pt below the preceding Saturday’s line at 82.2% at 30 days out and 88.5% at 19 days out, and the last day of the long weekend, Monday, November 23 (holiday), ran below that again at the same slope. The weekday lines for Wednesday, November 11 and Wednesday, November 25 almost overlap from 45 to 30 days out, so at least for the first week of the tournament there is no sign that the tournament is lifting early weekday bookings.

Comparing at the Same Lead Time — Tournament Weekdays Pull Ahead in the Second Half; the Long Weekend’s Last Day Falls Below Weekdays

Because the latest lead time differs by stay date, it is worth comparing on a common lead-time cross-section. The next chart lines up estimated OCC at “25 days out,” the point at which observations are available for all 23 days from Friday, November 6 to Saturday, November 28.

Hakata Ward, Fukuoka City, business hotels, N=70 properties / 10,845 rooms. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) at 25 days before each stay date. Dark bars = Kyushu Basho period (11/8–22). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Comparing tournament and post-tournament dates at 25 days out, Saturday, November 21 at 95.8% is almost identical to the post-tournament Saturday, November 28 at 95.7%, so neither being the first day of the long weekend nor day 14 of the tournament can be said to add anything to progress at this point. On Sundays, the final day, November 22, stood at 84.4% versus 81.2% for the post-tournament November 29 (both at 26 days out), with the final day about 3pt ahead. On weekdays, the second-half Tuesday, November 17 (82.9%) and Wednesday, November 18 (85.6%) were 2–6pt above the first-half Tuesday, November 10 (80.9%) and Wednesday, November 11 (80.0%), with the post-tournament Tuesday, November 24 (76.6%) and Wednesday, November 25 (79.9%) below them. Matching at the same 22 days out, Wednesday, November 11 (81.9%) and Wednesday, November 25 (81.5%) are almost level, while Wednesday, November 18 is 6.4pt ahead at 87.9% — suggesting that tournament weekday demand shows up in booking progress only in the second half.

The last day of the long weekend, Monday, November 23 (holiday), was at 73.8% at 25 days out — below even the post-tournament weekdays of Tuesday, November 24 (76.6%) and Wednesday, November 25 (79.9%). A holiday Monday is followed by a working day, and many spectators of the final day are likely to stay the night of the 22nd and head home on the 23rd, so the night of the 23rd is easily missed by both sumo and long-weekend demand. Across all segments (N=149–154 properties), November 23 was also at 75.8% at 20 days out, the same level as the 76.4% for business hotels on that date, so widening the segment does not remove this trough. The final-night trough of a long weekend is not unique to Hakata Ward: business hotels around Kyoto Station (Shimogyo Ward) over the November three-day weekend show the same staircase, with Saturday, November 21 reaching 99.1% at 21 days out while the final night, November 23, stays at 84.3%.

Separately, tournament Thursdays came out relatively high among weekdays — Thursday, November 12 at 98.0% at 9 days out (88.8% at 25 days out) and Thursday, November 19 at 91.1% at 16 days out — but because this article could not match them to any published event, it does not attempt to identify the cause.

Finish Benchmarks and Estimated Settled ADR — November Is the Peak Month of the Year for Hakata Ward Business Hotels

To evaluate progress for stay dates that still have two to three weeks to go, how far the previous month finished is the yardstick. Estimated OCC for Hakata Ward business hotels (N=70–75 properties) in October 2026 averaged 96.1% for the month, and the day-of-week finishes ranged from 92.3% on Sundays and 93.0% on Mondays up to 99.2% on Wednesdays — all ending above 90%. Given that the September 2026 monthly average was 92.6%, the normal pattern for Hakata Ward in autumn is to add roughly 10–15pt over the last two to three weeks and finish in the 90s; against this yardstick, the 76.4% at 20 days out for Monday, November 23 (holiday) is a lower starting point than any other stay date. September’s day-of-week finishes and how the Sunday trough fills outside long weekends are analyzed in detail in Fukuoka Business Hotels Sep: Sat 92.8%, Sun 89.2% — 85.7% Ex-Holiday.

On the price side, the monthly estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent) for Hakata Ward business hotels was ¥15,700 in November 2025 (N=132 properties), the highest of the 12 months of 2025. Comparing finalized months year on year in 2026, August was ¥13,500 (prior year ¥13,000, +3.5%), September ¥13,900 (prior year ¥12,500, +11.1%) and October ¥16,800 (prior year ¥13,700, +22.8%), with YoY growth widening into the autumn. The current estimate for November 2026 is ¥19,700 (N=133 properties), but this is based on current sales and will move as sales progress, so a straight comparison with finalized figures should wait until the month closes. For reading tournament-period weekday rates from the gap between last year’s results and current listed prices, Sumo Kyushu Basho 2026: Fukuoka Weekday Rates +9.7% Actual, +3.3% Now is also a useful reference when reviewing November pricing.

Hakata Ward, Fukuoka City, business hotels, estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent). Finalized months = solid line; November–December 2026 = estimates based on current sales (dashed line). N=126–134 properties. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

For reference, business hotels across Fukuoka Prefecture (N=335–342 properties) also had their highest estimated settled ADR of the year in November 2025 at ¥12,400, and October 2026 at ¥12,800 (prior year ¥10,500, +22.7%) shows the same growth as Hakata Ward. Hakata Ward city hotels are only a reference value because coverage is thin at 8–11 properties, but November 2025 at ¥31,800 (N=8) was likewise their highest month of 2025. The November peak is not unique to Hakata Ward; it is better understood as Fukuoka’s seasonal shape, where autumn events including the Kyushu Basho overlap with leisure travel demand.

Finish Scenarios — At the Absorption Rates of the September and October Long Weekends, 11/23 Reaches 84.7%–87.5%

How far current estimated OCC will rise can be gauged from how the same type of day built up in the past. For Hakata Ward business hotels, Table 2 takes September and October 2026 stay dates — the last days of long weekends (September 23, Autumnal Equinox Day; October 12, Sports Day), regular Sundays, and Saturdays that were above 90% at 18 days out — and lines up their build-up from the same lead time as the November comparison dates to the day before arrival. Because the higher the starting level, the less room there is to build, we compare not the build-up itself but the share of inventory remaining at the starting point that was absorbed by the day before (the remaining-room absorption rate).

Hakata Ward, Fukuoka City, business hotels, N=70–76 properties (varies by stay date). Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory). Absorption rate = (day before − start) ÷ (100 − start). The starting lead time is aligned to the November comparison dates (11/21 = 18 days out, 11/22 = 19 days out, 11/23 = 20 days out). 9/21–23 were Respect for the Aged Day, a national holiday and Autumnal Equinox Day; 10/12 was Sports Day. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

On the two long-weekend last days, only 35%–47% of remaining rooms were absorbed between 20 days out and the day before — clearly lower than regular Sundays (44%–59%). September 23 still ended at 79.9% on the day before and October 12 at 86.6%, so the pattern of a long weekend’s last day never quite filling up appeared in September and October too. Table 3 applies these absorption rates to the values as of November 4, 2026.

Low = minimum, Mid = median and High = maximum of the comparable days’ absorption rates, multiplied by the current remaining rooms (100 − current value) and added on. Estimated OCC on the day before (one day before the stay date) is used as the finish benchmark. This is not a forecast but a reference value assuming the same build-up as in September–October. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The long weekend’s first day, Saturday, November 21, has only 1.9pt of remaining rooms, so in every scenario it barely moves from the current value at 97.2%–99.7% (near the ceiling, returned inventory can even push the day-before value slightly lower, as on October 24). The final day, Sunday, November 22, would finish at 93.5%–95.3% at the absorption rates of regular Sundays, while the long weekend’s last day, Monday, November 23 (holiday), stays at 84.7%–87.5% — so the current 12.1pt gap between the 22nd and 23rd still leaves 8.5pt even in the mid scenario. If the 22nd grows like October 11 (65%), the Sunday in the middle of that long weekend, the gap actually widens.

So is it worth filling November 23 with price cuts? Table 4 sets the mid-scenario finish of 86.1% at an unchanged rate to 100, and lists the RevPAR (revenue per available room) index for each combination of rate change and finishing estimated OCC.

RevPAR index = finishing estimated OCC × (1 + rate change) ÷ 86.1 × 100. Green = 100 or more; red = below 95. Editorial estimate that excludes everything other than the room-rate change (variable costs, channel commissions, revenue on adjacent nights from multi-night stays). It applies market-wide estimated OCC to a single hotel and does not reflect any individual property’s price elasticity.

Holding RevPAR at the unchanged-rate level after a 10% rate cut requires a 95.7% finish. That is well above the day-before values for the last days of the September and October long weekends (79.9% and 86.6%) and close to the October 2026 weekday finish level. As far as the market as a whole is concerned, the estimate suggests it is more rational to capture the long weekend’s last-day trough by design that carries the previous night’s demand into the 23rd — such as the 22nd–23rd multi-night conditions in the Table 5 action plan — than by cutting rates. However, this applies the market average to a single hotel; if your own property responds to price cuts more strongly than the market, the conclusion changes.

For Revenue Managers Running Business Hotels in Hakata Ward — Implications and Action Plan

Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team based on the figures in this article. Results are not guaranteed.

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading the 15 Days of the Kyushu Basho

The first yardstick is “compare at the same lead time.” Since the latest lead time differs by stay date, progress can only be ranked on a common cross-section such as 25 or 22 days out. On the 25-days-out cross-section for Hakata Ward business hotels, there was no difference between the long weekend’s first day, Saturday, November 21 (95.8%), and the post-tournament Saturday, November 28 (95.7%); the final-day Sunday ran about 3pt above a regular Sunday, and second-half tournament weekdays were 2–6pt ahead of the first half.

The second yardstick is “a long weekend is three different days.” The staircase of 98.1% on Saturday, November 21, 88.5% on Sunday the 22nd and 76.4% on Monday the 23rd (holiday) shows a structure in which selling all three days at the same price and conditions fills the first day early and leaves the last day unsold.

The third yardstick is “the previous month’s finish.” In October 2026, Hakata Ward business hotels finished at a monthly average of 96.1% and at 92–99% by day of week. If building 10pt or more over the last two to three weeks is the normal pattern, stay dates at around 80% now are not at a point to panic and cut, whereas the long weekend’s last day, in the mid-70s, is the day with the most room to act through condition design.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Do all hotels in Hakata Ward fill up during the Kyushu Basho?
A. According to data as of November 4, 2026, how they fill varies greatly by stay date. Saturdays (November 14 and 21) have reached 98–99% at 11 and 18 days out respectively, but the final day, Sunday, November 22, stays at 88.5% at 19 days out and the last day of the long weekend, Monday, November 23 (holiday), at 76.4% at 20 days out. First-half tournament weekdays (November 9–11) also started from 65–68% at 45 days out, the same level as post-tournament weekdays.

Q. Is Saturday, November 14 filling early because of sumo?
A. November 14 is both the middle day of the Kyushu Basho and the day of a large concert at Mizuho PayPay Dome Fukuoka. Reaching 95.7% at 45 days out is likely the result of both overlapping, and this article does not separate out the effect of sumo alone.

Q. How were the occupancy and price figures in this article estimated?
A. Occupancy is estimated from how OTA-listed inventory is being absorbed and is defined differently from actual room occupancy. Prices are monthly estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent): past months are finalized values, and November onward are estimates based on current sales. Both definitions are given in “About the Data” below.

Q. How full is Monday, November 23 (holiday) likely to get in the end?
A. Assuming remaining rooms are absorbed at the same rate as on the last days of the September and October 2026 long weekends (September 23 and October 12), November 23 — at 76.4% at 20 days out as of November 4, 2026 — is estimated to finish at only around 84.7%–87.5% on the day before. By the same method the final day, November 22, reaches 93.5%–95.3%, so the gap between the two days is expected to remain at the finish (Table 3). This is not a forecast but a reference value assuming the same build-up as past comparable days.

Q. Should the long weekend’s last day, November 23, be filled with price cuts?
A. Taking the mid scenario (86.1% finish) at an unchanged rate as the baseline, holding the same RevPAR after a 10% rate cut requires a 95.7% finish — well above the day-before values for the September–October long-weekend last days (79.9% and 86.6%) (Table 4). As far as the market as a whole is concerned, design that carries the previous night’s demand into the 23rd, such as 22nd–23rd multi-night conditions, comes out ahead of price cuts in the estimate, but if your own property responds to price more strongly than the market, the conclusion changes.

About the Data

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

References and Sources

■ Data source

OTA published inventory and price data continuously collected by MetroEngines Research. Booking curves use a fixed cohort of Hakata Ward, Fukuoka City, business hotels (N=70 properties / 10,845 rooms; all segments 149–154 properties); estimated settled ADR uses monthly values for 126–134 Hakata Ward business hotels and 335–342 Fukuoka Prefecture business hotels. Data as of November 4, 2026.

■ Estimate assumptions

The finish scenarios in Table 3 apply the minimum, median and maximum absorption rates of comparable days in September and October 2026 (2 long-weekend last days, 6 regular Sundays and 5 Saturdays at ≥90% at 18 days out) to the remaining rooms at November’s current values. The RevPAR index in Table 4 sets November 23’s mid scenario of 86.1% at an unchanged rate to 100 and is calculated only from the rate change and finishing estimated OCC.

■ Limitations and caveats

Estimated OCC is based on the absorption of OTA-listed inventory and is defined differently from actual room occupancy. The comparable days cover only two months and just two long-weekend last days, and November’s events (the Kyushu Basho, the Fukuoka Marathon, the dome concerts) and autumn-foliage demand are not the same as in September–October. The finish scenarios are reference values, not forecasts, and the RevPAR index applies the market average to a single hotel; it does not reflect individual price elasticity, revenue on adjacent nights from multi-night stays, or commissions. Event schedules are based on public information; attendance and lodging demand themselves are not measured.