With one week to go before the opening of the 2026 Saga International Balloon Fiesta (Friday, October 30 – Tuesday, November 3, 2026, a national holiday; Kase River riverbank, Saga City), we tracked estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) by stay date for 35 lodging facilities with 1,517 rooms in Saga City (listed on major booking sites, all property types). Monday, November 2 — the night before the holiday — stood at 97.2% at T-45 and 97.6% at the latest observation (October 23, T-10), barely moving. In between, Sunday, November 1 rose from 84.8% to 92.0%, and the final night, Tuesday, November 3, from 77.1% to 82.7% — both heading into fiesta week with rooms still unsold. In a city where an ordinary Saturday (October 17) built up roughly 40 points, from 58.8% at T-45 to 98.4% the day before, every fiesta night was already full by T-45, and the remaining headroom is concentrated on the Sunday and the final night. This article sets the booking curves for the five fiesta nights against ordinary weekends and reads, on the pace axis alone, which nights still hold inventory and how much.
Scope: Saga City, all property types, N=35 facilities (1,517 rooms, listed on major booking sites). Supplementary references: Saga Prefecture business hotels N=19 facilities (1,929 rooms) and Saga Prefecture all property types N=122–123 facilities (4,303–4,318 rooms). Occupancy figures are estimates based on OTA-listed inventory; the only price metric used is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent, monthly). Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of October 24, 2026 (latest booking-curve observation: October 23).
• ADR (average daily rate) = an estimated settled rate (tax-exclusive equivalent), calculated by applying property-type correction factors to the lowest plan price each facility publishes on OTAs (per room, 2 guests, tax-inclusive). Against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 facilities, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each facility’s actual settled prices and accounting figures.
• Area-level (prefecture / municipality) ADR is the median of the estimated settled rates of the facilities covered (the level of a typical facility in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for 2 guests (tax-inclusive).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracks OTA public prices for about 168,000 facilities in Japan, of which about 27,000 have confirmed operating data)
- — 77–97% at T-45 — For the five fiesta nights (10/30–11/3), estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) across 35 facilities and 1,517 rooms in Saga City had already reached 77.1–97.2% at T-45.
- — Holiday-eve 11/2 flat at 97–98% — 97.2% at T-45 and 97.6% at the latest reading (observed 10/23, T-10). Near sell-out throughout the observation window.
- — Remaining inventory sits on Sunday 11/1 and the final night 11/3 — Latest readings: 92.0% for 11/1 and 82.7% for 11/3. 11/3 has given back 3.7 points from 86.4% at T-16.
- — In normal periods the market “fills from behind” — The ordinary Saturday of 10/17 went from 58.8% at T-45 to 98.4% the day before, adding about 40 points close in. Fiesta-week pickup is limited to +0.4 to +7.2 points.
- — November was the 2025 rate peak for the prefecture’s business hotels — Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, final) for Saga Prefecture business hotels was about ¥7,100 in November 2025 (N=49), the highest of that year’s 12 months.
Event Schedule and Observation Framework — Five Competition Days Plus Official Practice Days
First, the schedule. According to the event overview on the official fiesta website, balloon competition in 2026 runs for five days from Friday, October 30 to Tuesday, November 3 (a national holiday), and the full program including official practice flights and the awards ceremony runs from Wednesday, October 28 to Wednesday, November 4. Because November 3 is Culture Day, a public holiday, lodging demand splits into four core nights — Friday, October 30; Saturday, October 31; Sunday, November 1; and Monday, November 2 (holiday eve) — plus the night of the final day, Tuesday, November 3. The supply side — how many rooms sit within 10km and 30km of the venue — is mapped by distance band in Saga Balloon Fiesta 2026: 2,567 Rooms Within 10km of the Venue.
The observation framework is as follows. We fixed the cohort at 35 facilities (1,517 rooms) located in Saga City that list at least 30% of their total rooms on major booking sites, and for each stay date calculated estimated OCC from how listed inventory was absorbed between T-45 and the latest observation (October 23). Estimated OCC is based on how inventory sold on OTAs is absorbed, and its definition differs from actual room occupancy. We use three checkpoints — T-45, T-30 and the latest observation — and as comparisons we take ordinary Saturdays before the fiesta (October 17 and October 24), the Saturday and Sunday of the week after (November 7 and 8), and the weekdays just before the fiesta (October 27 and 28).
Booking Curves — 90% by T-45, and Holiday-Eve 11/2 a “Motionless” 97%
Overlaying the curves for the five fiesta nights makes the differences in shape clear. Monday, November 2 moved from 97.2% at T-45 to 98.2% at T-30 and 97.6% at the latest reading (T-10), staying flat in a 97–98% band throughout — it had effectively reached near sell-out by T-45. Saturday, October 31 also rose from 92.5% at T-45 to 96.1% at T-38, jumped to 98.4% at T-37 and reached 99.2% at T-33 to T-32, before a slight release of inventory back to 96.4% at the latest reading (T-8). Opening day, Friday, October 30, went from 90.5% to 95.2% (T-30) and 94.8% (T-7), essentially flat from T-30 onward.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The contrast comes from Sunday, November 1 and the final night, November 3. November 1 rose gently from 84.8% at T-45 to 89.2% at T-30, then kept edging up about a point at a time to 92.0% at the latest reading (T-9). Its cumulative pickup of +7.2 points is the largest of the five fiesta nights. November 3 (Tuesday, holiday) went from 77.1% to 81.6% at T-30 and reached 86.4% at T-17 to T-16, then fell 3.7 points to 82.7% at the latest reading (T-11). Since the following day, November 4, is a weekday, many visitors are likely to head home on the final day, and — including inventory that was once held and then released — demand on this night is clearly looser than on the other four.
The eve, Thursday, October 29, is also worth a look. It is an official practice-flight day rather than a competition day, yet it moved from 87.9% at T-45 to 94.8% at T-30 and 94.0% at the latest reading (T-6), close to the level of the competition Friday. That is high for a weekday Thursday and may reflect demand from officials, participating teams and early-arriving spectators checking in the day before.
| Stay date (day) | T-45 | T-30 | Latest (observed 10/23) | Pickup | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/29 (Thu) | 87.9% | 94.8% | 94.0% (T-6) | +6.1pt | Official practice-flight day |
| 10/30 (Fri) | 90.5% | 95.2% | 94.8% (T-7) | +4.3pt | First competition day |
| 10/31 (Sat) | 92.5% | 98.4% | 96.4% (T-8) | +3.9pt | 99.2% at T-33 to T-32 |
| 11/1 (Sun) | 84.8% | 89.2% | 92.0% (T-9) | +7.2pt | Largest pickup of the fiesta |
| 11/2 (Mon, holiday eve) | 97.2% | 98.2% | 97.6% (T-10) | +0.4pt | 97–98% throughout the window |
| 11/3 (Tue, holiday) | 77.1% | 81.6% | 82.7% (T-11) | +5.6pt | Down from 86.4% at T-17 to T-16 |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Compared with Ordinary Weekends — In a City That “Fills from Behind,” Fiesta Week “Filled First”
How unusual the fiesta nights are becomes clear next to ordinary weekends. Saturday, October 17, two weeks before the fiesta, went 58.8% at T-45, 74.8% at T-30, 84.4% at T-20 and 98.4% the day before — building about 40 points over 45 days and selling out on the eve. Saturday, November 7, the week after, also rose steeply in the second half, from 73.4% at T-45 to 87.0% at T-30 and 95.5% at the latest reading (T-15). Weekdays behave the same way: Tuesday, October 27 went from 60.6% at T-45 to 92.2% at the latest reading (T-4), and Wednesday, October 28 from 65.7% to 94.9% (T-5), each adding around 30 points in the final 45 days. In other words, in normal periods Saga City is a short-lead-time market that “fills from behind.”
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
To sum up so far: all five fiesta nights had reached 77–97% at T-45, a very different starting point from ordinary Saturdays (58.8% and 73.4%) and weekdays (60–66%). Pickup over the 45 days, on the other hand, was only +0.4 to +7.2 points, far short of the +20 to 40 points seen on ordinary weekends. Fiesta demand had largely been captured before the observation window opened, and what remains close in is only “the edges of nights that did not quite fill.” Saturday, October 24 moved from 94.5% at T-45 to 97.5% the day before, a shape close to the fiesta nights, but this is thought to reflect separate weekend demand unrelated to the fiesta, so we show it only as a reference value and exclude it from the ordinary-Saturday comparison. How many nights the fiesta fills in Saga City’s inventory is compared on the same yardstick as the Kawagoe Festival and Kyoto’s Jidai Matsuri in Autumn Festivals 2026: Kawagoe 1 Night, Kyoto 1, Saga 7 Nights.
Sundays deserve a look too. The ordinary Sundays around the fiesta were October 25 at 66.3% at T-45 and 72.4% at the latest reading (T-2), and November 8 from 73.6% to 86.9% at the latest reading (T-16) — Saga City’s Sundays normally run a notch below Saturdays. The fiesta Sunday of November 1 at 92.0% is above these, about 20 points above the latest October 25 reading (72.4%). Compared with Saturday, October 31 at 96.4% and Monday, November 2 at 97.6%, however, a Sunday “dip” of around 5 points remains.
Sunday 11/1 and the Final Night 11/3 — Two Nights with Inventory Left, and the Prefecture-Wide Picture
So where is the remaining inventory? Across Saga City’s 35 facilities and 1,517 rooms, the latest estimated OCC is 92.0% for November 1 and 82.7% for November 3, 2.8 to 14.9 points below the other three nights (94.8–97.6%). November 3 in particular is the only fiesta night still in the 80s, and it has slipped from 86.4% at T-16 to 82.7% at T-11 — making it the main battleground for close-in promotion.
The prefecture as a whole points the same way. For Saga Prefecture’s 19 business hotels (1,929 rooms), estimated OCC for November 2 was 92.4% at T-45, 95.3% at T-30 and 95.5% at the latest reading (T-10) — high from early on, as in Saga City — while November 1 built from 78.1% to 84.7% and 90.7%, and November 3 from 76.1% to 81.2% and 86.8%, filling in the second half. Across all property types in the prefecture (122–123 facilities, 4,303–4,318 rooms), November 3 has only just crossed 80%, from 68.6% at T-45 to 80.1% at the latest reading (T-11); on an all-property-type basis, final-night inventory across the prefecture is thicker than in Saga City (82.7%). For facilities in the prefecture away from the venue, the night of November 3 is the date with the most room to capture fiesta demand. Using the same population of 19 Saga Prefecture business hotels (1,929 rooms), how a national event the week before the fiesta filled up is tracked as a Day 1 vs Day 2 gap in Sanfair SAGA 2026 (10/24–25) in Saga Prefecture.
| Stay date (day) | Saga City, all types N=35 / 1,517 rooms | Saga Pref., business N=19 / 1,929 rooms | Saga Pref., all types N=122–123 / 4,303–4,318 rooms |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/30 (Fri) | 90.5% → 94.8% (T-7) | 76.5% → 90.0% (T-7) | 72.7% → 87.1% (T-7) |
| 10/31 (Sat) | 92.5% → 96.4% (T-8) | 79.8% → 94.3% (T-8) | 78.9% → 93.1% (T-8) |
| 11/1 (Sun) | 84.8% → 92.0% (T-9) | 78.1% → 90.7% (T-9) | 76.7% → 88.7% (T-9) |
| 11/2 (Mon, holiday eve) | 97.2% → 97.6% (T-10) | 92.4% → 95.5% (T-10) | 85.1% → 91.6% (T-10) |
| 11/3 (Tue, holiday) | 77.1% → 82.7% (T-11) | 76.1% → 86.8% (T-11) | 68.6% → 80.1% (T-11) |
| 11/7 (Sat, comparison) | 73.4% → 95.5% (T-15) | 67.9% → 90.0% (T-15) | 69.4% → 88.4% (T-15) |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
One caution in reading this: prefecture-wide figures also include demand from outside Saga City (other leisure destinations and events, business travel), so they do not show the fiesta’s effect in pure form. Even so, the fact that November 2 alone had reached 85–92% prefecture-wide at T-45 (85.1% all types, 92.4% business) shows that lodging inventory across the prefecture was widely secured for the Monday holiday eve. For near-full facilities in Saga City, it is a reason to keep wide-area supply and demand in mind, including referring guests to other parts of the prefecture.
Estimated Settled ADR — November Is a High Month for Saga Prefecture Business Hotels
As a price yardstick, we check the estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, monthly, final) for Saga Prefecture business hotels. The final figure for November 2025 was about ¥7,100 (N=49), the highest of 2025’s 12 months. Against November 2024 (about ¥6,800, N=45), that is +3.7%. The most recent final month, September 2026, came in at about ¥6,700 (N=49), +7.2% versus about ¥6,300 in September 2025 (N=47), and August was about ¥6,700 (N=49), +2.7% versus about ¥6,500 a year earlier (N=46) — final-figure YoY has stayed positive heading into autumn.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
| Month | 2024 (final) | 2025 (final) | 2026 (final) | YoY (latest final pair) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | ¥6,727 (N=46) | ¥6,488 (N=46) | ¥6,661 (N=49) | +2.7% (2026/2025) |
| September | ¥7,048 (N=45) | ¥6,290 (N=47) | ¥6,744 (N=49) | +7.2% (2026/2025) |
| October | ¥7,087 (N=45) | ¥6,624 (N=49) | — | -6.5% (2025/2024) |
| November | ¥6,824 (N=45) | ¥7,078 (N=49) | — | +3.7% (2025/2024) |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
For October and November 2026, estimates based on current sales exist, but a simple comparison with final figures should wait until the months close, so this article uses final months only. The point to keep in mind is that in 2025, November was the highest-rate month of the year for Saga Prefecture business hotels, with fiesta week at its core. City hotels are not quoted here because only 7–8 facilities in the prefecture are covered.
For Revenue Managers Running Hotels and Ryokan in Saga City — Implications and Action Plan
Operational Insights
1. Check your own curve against the “T-45 starting point.” The market reached 77–97% on all five fiesta nights at T-45, and subsequent pickup was at most +7.2 points. Whether your November 2 and October 31 had reached the market level by that point is the first test of whether you captured fiesta demand. If they had not, there is room to revisit when you open sales and how you open channels.
2. Remaining inventory is skewed toward Sunday and the final night. At the latest observation in Saga City, November 1 (Sun) was 92.0% and November 3 (Tue, holiday) 82.7%, clearly below the other three nights (94.8–97.6%). Because the whole market still has rooms on these two nights, it is not just your property left unsold. Rather than rushing on price, the better approach is to pull demand from the “filled” nights through multi-night conditions and stay proposals.
3. November 3 comes with inventory flowing back. The drop from 86.4% at T-16 to 82.7% at T-11 shows that inventory once held is returning to the market close in. Treat the final night as one that keeps moving to the end, and design its cancellation policy and last-minute sales separately from the other nights.
4. In normal periods Saga City is a market that “fills from behind.” Ordinary Saturdays add about 40 points over 45 days, and weekdays around 30 points, close in. After fiesta week, Saturday, November 7 has returned to the normal shape, from 73.4% at T-45 to 95.5% at the latest reading, so not carrying early fiesta restrictions into the following week matters for avoiding missed sales in early November.
Action Plan — From Before the Fiesta to the Following Week
| Timeline | Action | Decision trigger (based on figures in this article) | Aim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today – this week (pre-fiesta) | Put multi-night conditions and stay proposals for 11/1 (Sun) and 11/3 (Tue, holiday) up front | If your 11/1 is still below the market’s 92.0% and 11/3 below 82.7% | Extend demand from the filled 10/31 and 11/2 into adjacent nights |
| Today – this week (pre-fiesta) | Check eve demand for 10/29 (Thu) and lift weekday-based sales restrictions | If your 10/29 has not reached the market’s 94.0% | Capture early-arrival demand from the official practice day |
| Just before (T-7 to T-3) | Review whether to hold a small allotment for last-minute sales, in case 11/2 and 10/31 run dry close in | If the market’s 11/2 at 97.6% and 10/31 at 96.4% stay high close in | Keep sales opportunities open on high-demand nights close in |
| Just before (T-7 to T-3) | Set 11/3 cancellation policy and last-minute sales conditions separately from other nights | Given the market’s 11/3 falling from 86.4% at T-16 to 82.7% at T-11 | Secure resale opportunities on the final night as inventory returns |
| During fiesta – next week | Confirm early fiesta restrictions have not been carried over to 11/7 (Sat) and later | If 11/7 has returned to a normal ramp in the market, 73.4% at T-45 → 95.5% latest | Do not miss normal-period short-lead-time demand |
| Toward next month | When November final figures are out, compare your rate with the prefecture business-hotel figure for the same month last year (¥7,078, N=49) | Given that November 2025 was the highest month of the year | Build the fiesta-month price peak into next year’s sales plan |
All of the above are opportunities, not guaranteed outcomes. Priorities will vary with your property’s location (distance from the venue, access to the temporary JR station and parking), room mix, and whether you already have group or official-party demand.
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Fiesta Week
First, “the T-45 starting point.” The five fiesta nights across Saga City’s 35 facilities had reached 77–97% at T-45, a very different starting point from ordinary Saturdays (58.8% and 73.4%) and weekdays (60–66%). Fiesta demand had largely been captured before the observation window, so large close-in movements in market-wide inventory are unlikely.
Second, “identifying the nights with inventory left.” At the latest observation, November 2 was 97.6%, October 31 96.4% and October 30 94.8%, versus 92.0% for November 1 and 82.7% for November 3 — remaining inventory is skewed toward the Sunday and the final night. Prefecture-wide, November 3 is also at 80.1–86.8%, and on the all-property-type basis (80.1%) in particular, final-night inventory is thicker than in Saga City.
Third, “the return to normal.” Saturday, November 7, the week after, has returned to Saga City’s natural short-lead-time pattern, from 73.4% at T-45 to 95.5% at the latest reading, so leaving fiesta sales restrictions in place into the following week risks missed sales. On price, Saga Prefecture business hotels posted their highest final figure of 2025 in November (about ¥7,100, N=49, +3.7% YoY), and it is worth reaffirming that November, which includes fiesta week, was the annual rate peak in 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. When is the 2026 Saga International Balloon Fiesta held?
Balloon competition runs for five days from Friday, October 30 to Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (a national holiday). The full program including official practice flights and the awards ceremony runs from Wednesday, October 28 to Wednesday, November 4, at the Kase River riverbank in Saga City (per the event overview on the official fiesta website).
Q. Which night of the fiesta are Saga City hotels fullest?
Monday, November 2, the eve of the holiday. Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) across 35 facilities and 1,517 rooms in Saga City has stayed in a 97–98% band throughout the observation window, from 97.2% at T-45 to 97.6% at the latest observation (October 23, T-10).
Q. Which nights still have inventory?
Sunday, November 1 and the final night, November 3 (Tuesday, holiday). At the latest observation, estimated OCC was 92.0% for November 1 and 82.7% for November 3, below the other three nights (94.8–97.6%). November 3 has fallen 3.7 points from 86.4% at T-16.
Q. How does fiesta week fill differently from ordinary weekends?
In normal periods Saga City fills close in: Saturday, October 17 built about 40 points, from 58.8% at T-45 to 98.4% the day before. The five fiesta nights had reached 77–97% at T-45, and pickup over the 45 days was only +0.4 to +7.2 points.
Q. What is the November rate level for Saga Prefecture business hotels?
Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, final) was about ¥7,100 in November 2025 (N=49 facilities), the highest of 2025’s 12 months, and +3.7% versus November 2024 (about ¥6,800, N=45 facilities). October and November 2026 are not yet final and are not covered in this article.
About the Data
| Estimated OCC definition | OTA-listed-inventory-based occupancy = 100 – 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of facilities that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of facilities for each stay date; N= in the text is the facility count). It is an estimate based on how inventory sold on OTAs is absorbed, and its definition differs from actual room occupancy (rooms not listed are counted as absorbed, so it reads high). Labeled “estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis)” in the text. |
| Booking curves | Based on observations from T-45 to the latest date. Three checkpoints: T-45, T-30 and latest (latest observation date October 23, 2026). Target stay dates: October 29 – November 3, 2026; comparison dates: October 17, 24, 25, 27 and 28, and November 7 and 8. |
| Estimated settled ADR definition | The settled price level (tax-exclusive equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × property-type factor, an ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are final values; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error against published operating results: 6.6%. This article quotes final months only (January 2024 – September 2026). YoY compares final months with each other. |
| Facility counts | Saga City, all property types: N=35 facilities (1,517 rooms; 34 facilities / 1,512 rooms on some stay dates). Saga Prefecture, business hotels: N=19 facilities (1,929 rooms). Saga Prefecture, all property types: N=122–123 facilities (4,303–4,318 rooms). Estimated settled ADR: Saga Prefecture business hotels, N=41–51 facilities (varies by month; shown with each value). All based on listings on major booking sites. |
| Data date | Data as of October 24, 2026. Sales and inventory change daily, so figures in this article are a snapshot as of retrieval. |
| Source | MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team. Event schedule from the official fiesta website (below). |
References and Sources
■ Data sources
Listed inventory and sales data from major booking sites, continuously tracked by MetroEngines Research. Booking curves (T-45 to the latest observation date, October 23, 2026) for Saga City, all property types, N=35 facilities (1,517 rooms); Saga Prefecture business hotels, N=19 facilities (1,929 rooms); and Saga Prefecture, all property types, N=122–123 facilities (4,303–4,318 rooms); and estimated settled ADR for Saga Prefecture business hotels (monthly final values, January 2024 – September 2026). Event schedule from the official fiesta website.
■ Calculation assumptions
Estimated OCC is on an OTA-listed inventory basis (100 – 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms), for a fixed cohort of facilities listing at least 30% of total rooms on OTAs. Three checkpoints: T-45, T-30 and latest; pickup = latest – T-45. Estimated settled ADR is the tax-exclusive-equivalent settled price level estimated from lowest-plan level × property-type factor; YoY is limited to comparisons between final months.
■ Limitations and caveats
Estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as absorbed and therefore reads higher than actual room occupancy. Saga City’s cohort is small at 35 facilities, so inventory changes at a few properties can move it by several points. Prefecture-wide figures include demand unrelated to the fiesta. Estimated settled ADR for October and November 2026 is not yet final and is not covered. All of the above present opportunities and do not indicate results for any individual facility.
| 2026 Saga International Balloon Fiesta — Event Overview (Saga Balloon Fiesta Organizing Committee, general incorporated association) | https://www.sibf.jp/2026/outline/ |
| 2026 Saga International Balloon Fiesta — Event Schedule | https://www.sibf.jp/2026/schedule/ |
| Saga International Balloon Fiesta — Official Website | https://www.sibf.jp/ |
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