How many of the lodging facilities that opened in 2023 are still on OTAs and similar channels three years later? Tracking the 2,026 facilities that MetroEngines Research records as 2023 openings, listed prices for September 2026 stays could be confirmed for 1,644, an OTA listing retention rate of 81.1%. On a room basis the figure rises to 93.7%. The gap comes down to size: single-unit properties retain only 75.0%, while those with 100 or more rooms reach 95.6%. This article breaks down the 2023 cohort’s composition and retention by property type, size and prefecture, and sets it alongside the 2021 and 2022 cohorts and public statistics to identify the conditions under which small, dispersed supply takes hold.

The 2,026 Properties in the 2023 Cohort: 47.5% Single-Unit, 65.1% of Rooms in 100+ Room Properties

First, the population. The most common property type in the 2023 cohort is the vacation rental, with 735 properties (36.3%), followed by business hotels at 241 (11.9%), guesthouses at 206 (10.2%), cottages at 169 (8.3%) and glamping at 124 (6.1%). The types usually thought of as hotels and ryokan (business, city, resort, ryokan and deluxe) total just 444, slightly over 20% of the whole. By facility count, 2023’s new supply was led by whole-house rentals and small outdoor-style properties.

Sorting by room count makes the picture sharper still. Single-unit properties number 963, close to half (47.5%), yet hold only 2.2% of rooms. Conversely, the 137 properties with 100+ rooms are just 6.8% of facilities but account for 65.1% of rooms (28,553). By prefecture, Shizuoka (136), Hokkaido (128), Tokyo (128), Okinawa (123), Chiba (118) and Nagano (107) lead; in five of these six, all except Tokyo, single-unit properties made up from around 50% to 70% (Chiba 71.2%).

Figure 1: Property-type mix of the 2023 opening cohort (N=2,026)

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

*Rows by room-count band cover the 2,019 properties with known room counts. Facility-share denominator is the full cohort of 2,026.

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

81.1% Still Listed in September 2026 — 93.7% on a Room Basis

Next, the headline metric. For September 2026 stays, roughly three years after opening, listed prices were confirmed for 1,644 of the 2,026 properties, an OTA listing retention rate of 81.1%. Widening the window to June–October 2026 to catch seasonal operators raises it only to 83.1% (1,684 properties), a difference of 2.0pt. Properties that pull listings over the summer are a minority, so the September figure alone appears to capture the picture reasonably well.

The notable point is the gap with the room basis. Properties with confirmed listings hold 41,073 rooms in total, 93.7% of the cohort. The 382 unconfirmed properties average just 7.3 rooms, so their impact on supply volume is limited. By facility count, about one in five has dropped out of view on listings, but by room count nearly all rooms remain on the market; that is the shape of the 2023 cohort.

It bears repeating that an unconfirmed listing does not mean closure. Whole-house rentals often build awareness on OTAs right after opening and then shift toward direct sales on their own websites as repeat guests grow. Some campgrounds and glamping sites do not operate year-round. The OTA listing retention rate shows the share still in OTA and similar sales channels; it does not measure whether the business itself continues.

Compared With the 2021 and 2022 Cohorts — Newer Cohorts Retain More, Partly Because They Are Younger

The 2021 and 2022 cohorts were tallied the same way. The 1,824 properties opened in 2021 retain 73.9% and the 1,686 opened in 2022 retain 79.5%; with 81.1% for 2023, 86.9% for 2024 and 89.7% for 2025, newer cohorts retain more. However, all are measured at the same point, September 2026, so older cohorts have been open longer: roughly five years for 2021 versus about three for 2023. The differences between cohorts therefore include this difference in elapsed time.

On a room basis the gaps are much smaller: 91.7% for 2021, 94.6% for 2022 and 93.7% for 2023. The 2021 cohort’s low facility-basis rate stems mainly from the small bands, single-unit (61.8%) and 2–4 rooms (70.0%); the mid-size 10–99 room band retains 82.6%, only a little over 4pt below the 2023 cohort (86.9%). The cohort gaps read mainly as small properties dropping off listings cumulatively over the years.

Figure 2: OTA listing retention by opening year (as of September 2026, facility basis and room basis)

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

*Shows the eight property types with 70+ properties in the 2023 cohort. The Total row includes other types.

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Across the three cohorts by type, business hotels (92.5% for 2023) and resort hotels (92.0%) stay consistently high. Vacation rentals rise year by year, 63.7% → 74.0% → 78.4%, reaching 89.1% in the newest 2025 cohort. Glamping retained 80.6% in 2023, about 9pt above the prior year, while openings themselves narrowed from 124 in 2023 to 50 in 2024 and 22 in 2025 (OTA listings are often confirmed several months after opening, so newer years may gain properties as further listings appear). This suggests the boom-era rush of entrants has run its course and openings have shifted to more selective locations and facilities.

Size and Staying Power — From 75.0% for Single-Unit to 95.6% for 100+ Rooms, but Already 80%+ at 2–9 Rooms

Lining up retention by room-count band across the three cohorts, larger properties retain more in every year. For the 2023 cohort: single-unit 75.0%, 2–4 rooms 84.1%, 5–9 rooms 85.4%, 10–29 rooms 83.2%, 30–99 rooms 92.1% and 100+ rooms 95.6%. The progression is not linear, though. There is a 9.1pt step from single-unit to 2–4 rooms, then a plateau in the mid-80s up to 29 rooms. In other words, two thresholds drive the split: single-unit versus multi-room, and whether the property is a full-scale operation of 30+ rooms.

Figure 3: OTA listing retention by room-count band (2021–2023 cohorts, as of September 2026)

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

A scatter plot of median room count against retention by type shows the same relationship across property types. Vacation rentals, cottages and campgrounds, with medians of 1–2 rooms, cluster at the 70s or below, while business hotels (median 77.5 rooms) and city hotels (178 rooms) sit in the 90s. Yet some small types retain well: machiya townhouses, also centered on single units, retain 85.2%, and guesthouses (median 2 rooms) 80.1%. Machiya and guesthouses are often located in urban tourist areas, suggesting that location matters in addition to size.

Figure 4: Median room count vs. OTA listing retention by property type (2023 cohort; bubble size = number of properties)

*Horizontal axis is logarithmic. Covers property types with 18+ properties in the 2023 cohort (15 types, excluding “Other”).

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

How Location Works — Single-Unit Around 75% Everywhere; 2–99 Rooms 6pt Higher in Metro Areas

Crossing size with location reveals where each factor bites. Single-unit properties retain 74.8% in regional areas and 75.4% in the three major metro areas, almost no difference. Properties with 100+ rooms also nearly all remain: 96.7% regional and 94.8% metro. The location gap appears in the middle band of 2–99 rooms: for 2–9 rooms, metro areas retain 89.5%, 6.3pt above regional; for 10–99 rooms, 90.9%, 6.0pt higher. Properties with a handful to a few dozen rooms appear to take hold more easily when supported by stable metropolitan demand.

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

So for single-unit properties, what drives retention? Price tier does not: splitting vacation rentals into three tiers by median listed price over their first 12 months, every tier retains around 80%, with little difference. Price tier, in other words, does not determine staying power. The difference shows up by prefecture. Across the 15 prefectures with 20+ single-unit properties, retention spans more than 30pt, from 89.8% in Hyogo to 57.6% in Nagano. In Hyogo, 46 of the 59 single-unit properties are on Awaji Island, and those 46 retain 89.1%. An island resort within driving distance of the Kyoto–Osaka–Kobe region can capture weekend demand in any season, suggesting that whole-house rentals stay in sales channels more readily where demand is less seasonal (for the link between supply growth and rates on Awaji, see Awaji Island: Listings Up 38%, Estimated ADR Still Rose 7.7–11.0%). Nagano’s whole-house rentals concentrate in highland areas such as Hakuba and Yatsugatake, and Shizuoka’s in the Izu villa districts. With wide seasonal swings in demand, these regions still have room to improve off-season sales planning.

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

At the whole-prefecture level, too, prefectures with a higher share of single-unit properties tend to retain less. Across the 24 prefectures with 30+ properties in the 2023 cohort, the correlation coefficient between single-unit share and retention was −0.40. Still, some prefectures, such as Hyogo (single-unit share 60.8%, retention 89.7%), retain well despite a high single-unit share, so size mix alone does not determine a prefecture’s figure.

Figure 5: Single-unit share vs. OTA listing retention by prefecture (2023 cohort; 24 prefectures with 30+ properties)

Source: MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Against Macro Statistics — The ~75% Regional Share Matches; Case Counts Measure Different Layers

It is also worth checking how far our listing data agrees with public statistics and private surveys. According to Teikoku Databank, lodging-industry bankruptcies in 2025 (liabilities of ¥10 million or more, legal proceedings) totaled 89, up from 78 the year before for a second straight annual rise; together with 178 suspensions, closures and dissolutions, 267 businesses exited the market. Regional areas outside the three major metros accounted for 75.3% of them. For how these 267 exits compare with new openings by facility and room count, see Japan Lodging Exits 2025: 267 Cases, New Openings Avg 23.7 Rooms.

The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare’s Report on Public Health Administration and Services, which covers facilities licensed under the Hotel Business Act, shows 7,720 new licenses and 2,817 business closures in FY2024. Closures have fallen for four straight years from 5,130 in FY2020, and licenses have risen for three straight years from 4,391 in FY2021. Facilities at fiscal year-end (hotel/ryokan, simple lodging and boarding-house businesses combined) numbered 98,338, up 8,623 from the end of FY2021. Closures divided by year-end facilities came to 2.9%, half the 5.8% of FY2020. Net supply (licenses minus closures) broken down by prefecture is analyzed in detail in 98,338 Lodging Facilities: 30 of 47 Prefectures Lost Rooms in FY2024.

Figure 6: Hotel Business Act licenses and closures (nationwide, by fiscal year)

Source: MHLW, Report on Public Health Administration and Services (each fiscal year, Table 8); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

*Year-end facilities are the total of hotel/ryokan, simple lodging and boarding-house businesses. The rightmost column is a HotelBank Editorial Team estimate. License and closure counts may include procedures due to a change of operator.

Source: MHLW, Report on Public Health Administration and Services; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Putting the three datasets side by side makes clear where they agree and where they measure different layers. They agree on the regional share: of the 382 properties in the 2023 cohort without a confirmed listing in September 2026, 289 (75.7%) are in regional areas, nearly the same as Teikoku Databank’s 75.3% regional share. However, 71.0% of the 2023 cohort itself is regional, so the regional skew is only about 4.7pt, which should be factored in.

Case counts, on the other hand, cannot be compared directly. Teikoku Databank counts corporations and sole proprietors, and its bankruptcies are limited to legal proceedings with liabilities of ¥10 million or more. An individual running a single-unit vacation rental as a side business who stops listing would hardly show up in such statistics. The public-health report counts facilities, but only those licensed under the Hotel Business Act. Applied to our cohort, the 2023 cohort’s 81.1% confirmed-listing rate equates to a decline of about 6% a year on a simple three-year average (about 7% a year compounded), above the closure ratio for all licensed facilities (2.9–4.3%). Given that properties a few years old turn over more actively than the existing stock, and that the metric also captures changes of sales channel, the level is not inconsistent.

Source: Teikoku Databank (released February 6, 2026); MHLW, Report on Public Health Administration and Services; MetroEngines Research (based on confirmed OTA listings); compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Reading the 1,711 Openings of 2026 — A Mix Nearly Identical to 2023

Finally, let us apply this to current supply. Facilities with an opening date registered between January 1 and October 15, 2026 number 1,711 (38,790 rooms), of which vacation rentals account for 833 (48.7%) and single-unit properties for 863 (50.4%). The single-unit share has risen from 41.7% in 2021 to 47.5% in 2023 and 50.4% in 2026; new supply keeps getting smaller.

Applying the 2023 cohort’s retention by room-count band directly to the 2026 cohort’s size mix gives a weighted average of 81.1%, the same level as the 2023 cohort’s actual result. Although the single-unit share has risen, there are also 283 properties with 30+ rooms, so the shift in size mix is not large enough to move retention much. This is, of course, a mechanical application, not a forecast. Where the 2026 cohort settles three years from now will depend on the demand environment and each property’s sales planning.

In sum, the conditions under which small, dispersed supply takes hold come down to three. First, size: moving from one unit to two or more lifts retention by 9pt. Second, location: for 2–99 room properties, the three major metro areas retained about 6pt more than regional areas. Third, demand seasonality: in Hyogo, where most single-unit properties are on Awaji Island, 89.8% of single-unit properties remain listed. Price tier, by contrast, barely affects retention.

Conclusion — Year-Round Sales Planning Is the Growth Lever for Single-Unit Rentals

Of the 2,026 facilities that opened in 2023, 81.1% were still confirmed as listed on OTAs and similar channels three years later in September 2026, or 93.7% on a room basis. Most of those that dropped from view are small, mainly single-unit properties, so the impact on supply volume is limited. Moreover, an unconfirmed listing does not mean closure; it also includes shifts to direct sales on the property’s own website and seasonal operation.

From an operator’s perspective, even single-unit properties see retention vary widely depending on location and how seasonality is managed. The gap between Hyogo’s 89.8% and Nagano’s 57.6% can be read as a difference in how off-season demand is captured. Combining extended-stay and workation demand with weekday-oriented plans offers upside for raising retention even at villa-district whole-house rentals. Half of the 1,711 openings in 2026 are single-unit properties, and how many of them stay in sales channels is likely to hinge on sales planning from their second year onward.