On Friday, November 6, 2026, the day the Echizen crab (越前がに) fishing season opened, the booking curve for 19 ryokan (1,038 rooms) in Awara City (Awara Onsen, あわら温泉) climbed from an estimated OCC of 46.9% at 45 days out to 84.3% on the final day before arrival, and Saturday the 7th went from 57.0% to 86.7% to close out the weekend. The path there, however, was anything but linear. At 14 days out, the opening weekend stood at only 68.1% (Fri) and 66.9% (Sat), while the following Saturday, November 14, was already at 96.5% at the same lead time, and Saturday the 21st, the first day of a three-day holiday weekend, was at 98.7% — only the weekend immediately after the season opening was clearly behind. It then caught up by adding 19.8pt (Sat) and 16.2pt (Fri) in the final two weeks. That was the shape of this season’s opening weekend. This article uses booking curves by stay date to confirm why the opening weekend filled later than the weekends that followed, and lays out actions from 14 days out for the weekends ahead in late November and early December.
Scope: ryokan in Awara City, Fukui Prefecture, N=18–19 properties (1,014–1,038 rooms; a fixed cohort per stay date). This article covers booking pace (estimated OCC) only and does not address price levels. Occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory; definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of: November 8, 2026.
• ADR (Average Daily Rate) = an estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying a property-type correction factor to the lowest plan price each property publishes on OTAs (per room, 2 guests, tax-included). Checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual settled prices and accounting figures.
• Area-level (prefecture / municipality) ADR is the median of the estimated settled rates of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for 2 guests (tax-included).
• OCC (occupancy rate) = the share of rooms sold out of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracking OTA published prices for approximately 168,000 properties in Japan, of which approximately 27,000 have confirmed occupancy data)
- — Opening day, Fri Nov 6, went from 46.9% at 45 days out to 84.3% at the final day; Sat Nov 7 went from 57.0% to 86.7%. Lagging at 68.1% and 66.9% at 14 days out, they added +16.2pt and +19.8pt in the final two weeks — a last-minute pattern (Awara City ryokan, N=19 properties, 1,038 rooms).
- — Peak demand fell not on opening week but in mid-November through the three-day weekend. Sat Nov 14 reached 96.5% at 14 days out, and Sat Nov 21, the first day of the three-day weekend, reached 98.7% at 14 days out with a sold-out property rate of 88.9%.
- — Awara’s lag was the largest of six areas. The 14-days-out gap between the Saturday after opening and the following Saturday was +29.6pt in Awara City versus +3.8 to +15.8pt in Echizen Town, Kaga City, Toyooka City, Kami Town and Kyotango City.
- — October’s Friday average of 77.3% and Saturday average of 89.1% are the yardstick. Opening-day Friday finished at 84.3%, +7.0pt above a typical Friday, while the remaining upside from late November lies not in Saturdays but in Friday pre-weekend stays (Fri Dec 4 was 53.9% at 27 days out).
- — The actions: benchmark at T-14 and hold inventory open from T-7. On opening day, occupancy moved +17.7pt from 66.6% at 7 days out to 84.3% at the final day, so the key questions are not closing sales allocations early and steering demand for sold-out dates to adjacent days.
Opening-Weekend Booking Curve — Behind at 14 Days Out, Caught Up in the Final Two Weeks
First, let’s overlay the trajectories of opening day and the day after onto a regular autumn Saturday. The chart below shows estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) from 45 days before the stay date to the final day, with Saturday, October 31 — the last Saturday before the season opened — as the comparison. October 31 ran 63.9% at 45 days out, 78.8% at 14 days out and 86.9% at the final day: a “front-loaded” shape that finished most of its build-up by 14 days out and added only +8.1pt in the final two weeks.
By contrast, opening day, Friday November 6, ran 46.9% at 45 days out, 52.3% at 30 days out and 68.1% at 14 days out, consistently more than 10pt below October 31 at the same points. It then added +17.7pt in the final week alone, from 66.6% at 7 days out to 84.3% at the final day, with a particularly striking +11.0pt jump in a single day, from 69.9% at 3 days out to 80.9% at 2 days out. Saturday the 7th also stayed behind at 57.0% at 45 days out and 66.9% at 14 days out, then landed at 86.7%, +8.6pt from 78.1% at 7 days out. Measured by total build-up from 45 days out to the final day — +23.0pt for October 31 versus +37.4pt for November 6 and +29.7pt for November 7 — the opening weekend can be described as a last-minute pattern: “slow, but catches up at the end.” The pricing side, which this article does not cover — that is, at what levels ryokan priced the opening weekend — is analyzed in detail in Crab Season 2026: Ryokan Rates Up to 44% Above October Saturdays.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The day-of-week comparison of final results is worth noting. Against an average estimated OCC of 77.3% across October’s five Fridays, opening-day Friday finished at 84.3%, +7.0pt above a typical Friday. Meanwhile, October’s five Saturdays averaged 89.1%, and the Saturday after opening, at 86.7%, was -2.4pt below that — roughly in line with a normal Saturday. The opening’s lift appears to have shown up not on Saturday but on the opening-day Friday itself.
Comparison With Later Weeks — Peak Demand Falls in Mid-to-Late November, Not Opening Week
So why did the weekend immediately after the opening fill later than those that followed? The table below lines up fixed points for each stay date (45 days out, 30 days out, 14 days out and the latest observation) for weekends from November through early December. November 6 and 7 are final figures; November 13 onward are the latest observations as of November 8 and may still change.
| Stay date | N (properties/rooms) | 45 days out | 30 days out | 14 days out | Latest observation | Observed at | Sold-out property rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/31 (Sat) | 19/1,038 | 63.9% | 75.0% | 78.8% | 86.9% | Final day (confirmed) | 42.1% |
| 11/6 (Fri) | 19/1,038 | 46.9% | 52.3% | 68.1% | 84.3% | Final day (confirmed) | 31.6% |
| 11/7 (Sat) | 19/1,038 | 57.0% | 62.6% | 66.9% | 86.7% | Final day (confirmed) | 26.3% |
| 11/13 (Fri) | 18/1,014 | 70.0% | 91.0% | 93.8% | 94.7% | 6 days out | 27.8% |
| 11/14 (Sat) | 18/1,014 | 85.0% | 92.9% | 96.5% | 94.2% | 7 days out | 33.3% |
| 11/20 (Fri) | 18/1,014 | 54.7% | 61.8% | 79.6% | 81.9% | 13 days out | 33.3% |
| 11/21 (Sat) | 18/1,014 | 92.3% | 98.3% | 98.7% | 98.7% | 14 days out | 88.9% |
| 11/27 (Fri) | 18/1,014 | 61.2% | 71.5% | — | 84.1% | 20 days out | 27.8% |
| 11/28 (Sat) | 18/1,014 | 69.9% | 82.6% | — | 86.8% | 21 days out | 50.0% |
| 12/4 (Fri) | 18/1,014 | 46.1% | 52.1% | — | 53.9% | 27 days out | 22.2% |
| 12/5 (Sat) | 19/1,038 | 59.2% | 75.5% | — | 80.1% | 28 days out | 36.8% |
| 12/12 (Sat) | 19/1,038 | 61.0% | — | — | 66.0% | 35 days out | 15.8% |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
What the table shows is a structure in which peak demand sits not in opening week but in mid-to-late November. Saturday, November 14 was already at 85.0% at 45 days out and 96.5% at 14 days out, running about 30pt above the Saturday after opening at the same 14-day point (66.9%). The Friday of that week, the 13th, had also reached 91.0% at 30 days out, nearly 40pt ahead of opening-day Friday (52.3% at 30 days out). And Saturday the 21st, the first day of the three-day weekend, was at 92.3% at 45 days out and 98.7% at 14 days out, with a sold-out property rate (the estimated share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and similar channels) of 88.9% — the market as a whole is close to full.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Three factors are plausible as background. First, right after the opening, the state of the first landings and first auctions cannot be known in advance, so travelers who want to enjoy Echizen crab at a relaxed pace are likely to pick the second week onward, when supply has stabilized. Second, the schedule of related events. In Mikuni Town, Sakai City (坂井市三国町), the “Mikuni Minato Crab Festival 2026 (三国湊かに祭り2026)” is being held over two days, Saturday November 14 and Sunday November 15, at a special venue at Mikuni Sunset Beach, with special sales of freshly opened-season Echizen crab and seikogani (female snow crab) soup promoted as highlights (Fukui City official tourism site “Fukuiro (福いろ)” and others). Awara Onsen is close to this venue, so event-driven lodging demand lands on the weekend after the opening week. Third, with the three-day weekend of November 21–23 ahead, “crab + long weekend” demand appears to have concentrated early on the 21st, filling it ahead of the opening weekend.
The movement in neighboring Sakai City (all categories, N=21 properties, 257 rooms) reinforces this interpretation. In Sakai City, Saturday November 7, the day after the opening, built up early, from 70.4% at 45 days out to 89.9% at 14 days out and 91.8% at 2 days out, landing at 83.3% on the final day. Opening-day Friday the 6th also showed a last-minute gain of +22.6pt, from 60.3% at 14 days out to 82.9% at the final day; Saturday the 14th reached 98.8% at 7 days out (N=21 properties, 257 rooms), and Saturday the 21st reached 100.0% at 14 days out (N=19 properties, 255 rooms). What emerges is a difference in roles between the areas: Sakai City, close to Mikuni Port with small room counts, filled early from the opening weekend, while Awara Onsen’s ryokan cluster, with four times the room count, caught up at the last minute.
Comparison With Other Crab Areas — Awara’s Opening-Weekend Lag Was the Largest
Is a slow opening weekend a phenomenon common to crab-producing areas along the Sea of Japan coast, or is it specific to Awara Onsen? For six crab areas in Fukui, Ishikawa, Hyogo and Kyoto where the snow crab (zuwaigani) season opened on the same November 6, we lined up ryokan estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory, fixed cohort per stay date) using the same 14-days-out yardstick. Saturday November 7 figures are final values through the day before arrival; Saturday November 14 figures are values at 14 days before the stay (observed October 31, 2026) and may change with subsequent observations.
| Area (ryokan) | N (11/7, properties/rooms) | 10/31 (Sat) 14 days out | 11/7 (Sat) 14 days out | 11/7 (Sat) final day | 11/14 (Sat) 14 days out | 14-days-out gap (11/14 − 11/7) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awara City, Fukui | 19/1,038 | 78.8% | 66.9% | 86.7% | 96.5% | +29.6pt |
| Echizen Town, Fukui | 12/118 | 82.1% | 86.4% | 93.2% | 99.1% | +12.7pt |
| Kaga City, Ishikawa | 39/2,388 | 77.1% | 82.1% | 88.4% | 93.3% | +11.2pt |
| Toyooka City, Hyogo | 55/952 | 91.9% | 90.3% | 96.4% | 94.1% | +3.8pt |
| Kami Town, Hyogo | 32/328 | 76.5% | 81.1% | 98.5% | 85.8% | +4.7pt |
| Kyotango City, Kyoto | 50/612 | 76.1% | 73.5% | 95.3% | 89.3% | +15.8pt |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Looking at the Saturday after the opening at 14 days out, Awara City was the lowest of the six areas at 66.9%, 11.9pt below the same point for Saturday October 31 before the opening (78.8%). The only other areas below October 31 were Toyooka City (-1.6pt) and Kyotango City (-2.6pt); in Echizen Town (+4.3pt), Kaga City (+5.0pt) and Kami Town (+4.6pt), the Saturday after opening was ahead of October’s last Saturday. The 14-days-out gap to the following Saturday, November 14, was +29.6pt in Awara City, versus only +3.8 to +15.8pt in the other five areas. Even in final results, Awara City’s 86.7% was among the lowest of the six areas alongside Kaga City (88.4%), while Toyooka City, Kami Town and Kyotango City exceeded 95%.
In other words, while the tendency for demand to “wait and see right after the opening and shift to the following weeks” is observed in many crab areas, the magnitude of that swing was exceptionally large in Awara Onsen. Of the three factors cited in the previous section, the Mikuni Minato Crab Festival held the following week in Mikuni Town, Sakai City, and the structure in which a large-room-count ryokan cluster catches up at the last minute may be at work as factors specific to Awara. Note that Echizen Town is small, at N=12 properties and 118 rooms, so its figures can swing with the movement of just a few properties.
Day-of-Week Pattern — October’s 89.1% Saturday Average Is the Yardstick for the Opening Weekend
To evaluate where the opening weekend landed, it helps to understand the previous month’s day-of-week pattern. Estimated OCC for Awara City ryokan (N=19 properties, 1,038 rooms) in October averaged 80.7% for the month; by day of week, Saturday was 89.1%, Sunday 82.5%, Friday 77.3% and Monday 73.2%, a weekend-weekday gap of more than 15pt. Wednesday stands out among weekdays at 87.7%, a shape typical of onsen ryokan serving as a base for group and weekday travel, but Friday at 77.3% is little different from Thursday (78.7%), indicating that pre-weekend demand is not fully landing on Fridays. For how the weekly pattern of Fukui Prefecture’s ryokan looked in summer, see also Fukui Ryokan Sat 90.9% vs Mon 76.3%: Business Hotels Dip on Sunday.
| Day of week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October avg. estimated OCC | 73.2% | 75.7% | 87.7% | 78.7% | 77.3% | 89.1% | 82.5% |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Against this yardstick, November’s weekends come into focus. Saturday the 7th, the day after the opening, at 86.7% was roughly equal to October’s Saturday average, while the following Saturday the 14th (94.2% at 7 days out) and Saturday the 21st (98.7% at 14 days out) are both already above it. Saturday November 28 at 86.8% (21 days out) and Saturday December 5 at 80.1% (28 days out) are ahead of October 31 at the same points (77.0% at 21 days out and 70.1% at 28 days out). Fridays, on the other hand — November 20 at 81.9% (13 days out), the 27th at 84.1% (20 days out) and December 4 at 53.9% (27 days out) — still trail the following Saturday by 2.7 to 26.2pt. It is fair to say that the challenge from late November onward lies not in adding to Saturdays but in Friday pre-weekend stays and how last-minute demand is handled. For how Friday stays in November are building at tourist destinations in other regions, Citizens’ Day Fridays: Nov 13 OCC Hits 86.8% in Hakone, 72.5% in Atami compares them using the same 45-days-out yardstick.
For Revenue Managers at Awara Onsen Ryokan — Implications and Action Plan
Operational Insights
1. Plan the opening weekend as a “last-minute” weekend. The market lagged at 68.1% (Fri) and 66.9% (Sat) at 14 days out, yet added +16.2pt and +19.8pt in the final two weeks to match October’s Saturday average. Even if your property’s curve is as low as the market at 14 days out, there is a basis for keeping sales allocations open on the assumption that it will fill at the last minute.
2. Peak demand is mid-November and the three-day weekend — and those dates are already nearly closed. With Saturday November 14 at 94.2% at 7 days out and Saturday the 21st at 98.7% at 14 days out with a sold-out property rate of 88.9%, the practical question for these dates is not attracting more guests but how to steer inquiries for sold-out dates to the days before and after.
3. Friday pre-weekend stays are the biggest opportunity. October’s Friday average of 77.3% is little different from Thursday’s 78.7%, and the gaps to the following Saturday are large — November 20 (Fri) at 81.9%, December 4 (Fri) at 53.9%. Crab season makes it easy to create a reason for a two-night stay touring local port towns and festivals, so consider multi-night offers with Friday check-in.
4. Early movement in neighboring areas can serve as a leading indicator. Sakai City (all categories) reached 89.9% at 14 days out for the Saturday after the opening, and a sequence was observed in which demand flowed to Awara Onsen after the smaller neighboring area filled first. It is worth tracking neighboring areas’ pace alongside your own property’s curve.
Based on the above, the actions for weekends in late November and early December are organized along a timeline below. Each trigger is tied to the market figures presented in this article.
| Timeline | Action | Decision trigger (figures in this article) | Objective |
|---|---|---|---|
| T-14 (2 weeks before) | Benchmark your booking pace against the market’s 14-days-out level and identify unsold weekend and weekday inventory | At 14 days out, the market was 68.1% (Fri) / 66.9% (Sat) on the opening weekend and 93.8% (Fri) / 96.5% (Sat) in mid-November. If any day of the week falls below this band at your property | Decide how to release inventory for a last-minute weekend |
| T-14 (2 weeks before) | Design multi-night / pre-weekend offers for Fridays with thin demand | 12/4 (Fri) at 53.9% (27 days out) vs. 80.1% for 12/5 (Sat). 11/20 (Fri) at 81.9% (13 days out) also has room vs. 98.7% the next day | Extend Saturday demand into Friday to even out occupancy across the weekend |
| T-7 (1 week before) | Consider keeping sales allocations open until the last minute, rather than closing them early, to capture late bookings | Opening day 11/6 gained +17.7pt from 66.6% at 7 days out to 84.3% at the final day; 11/7 gained +8.6pt. Even if your property is below the market’s 7-days-out level | Capture short-lead-time demand from travelers reacting to season-opening news |
| T-7 (1 week before) | Guide demand concentrated on the first day of the three-day weekend to the day before or after | 11/21 (Sat) was 98.7% at 14 days out with a sold-out property rate of 88.9%; the market as a whole is near full | Convert inquiries for sold-out dates into bookings on surrounding dates |
| T-3 to day before | Monitor inventory sell-through in the final two days and widen exposure for remaining rooms | 11/6 moved +11.0pt in one day, from 69.9% at 3 days out to 80.9% at 2 days out. If your remaining rooms are still out of line with the market’s final-day level | Don’t miss demand in the final stretch |
| Toward next month | Record your property’s opening-weekend curve and keep three points — 45 days out, 14 days out and final day — as benchmarks in next season’s sales calendar | This season’s market values: 11/6 at 46.9% → 68.1% → 84.3%; 11/7 at 57.0% → 66.9% → 86.7% | Be able to simulate next season’s opening weekend in advance |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading the Opening Weekend
Looking back at this season’s Echizen crab opening weekend through the booking curves of Awara Onsen’s ryokan, the findings come down to three points. First, the opening weekend was a last-minute pattern: lagging at 68.1% (Fri) and 66.9% (Sat) at 14 days out, it caught up to 84.3% and 86.7% at the final day. Second, peak demand lay not in opening week but on Saturday November 14, when the Mikuni Minato Crab Festival is held, and Saturday the 21st, the first day of the three-day weekend — the latter nearly full at 98.7% at 14 days out. Third, measured against October’s day-of-week yardstick (Saturday average 89.1%, Friday average 77.3%), the remaining upside from late November lies not in Saturdays but in Friday pre-weekend stays. Recording the opening-weekend curve at three points — 45 days out, 14 days out and the final day — will provide a benchmark next season for telling in advance whether a date is “behind” or simply “the type that fills at the last minute.”
About the Data
| Estimated OCC definition | Occupancy based on OTA-listed inventory = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of properties listing at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; N= in this article is the number of those properties). This is an estimate based on the sell-through of inventory sold on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it tends to run higher because unlisted rooms are counted as sold). |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the most recent. November 6, November 7 and October 31 are observations through the day before arrival (confirmed); November 13 onward are the latest observations as of November 8, 2026, and may change. |
| Sold-out property rate | The estimated share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and similar channels. |
| Coverage | Awara City, Fukui Prefecture, ryokan: N=19 properties, 1,038 rooms for October 31, November 6, November 7, December 5 and December 12; N=18 properties, 1,014 rooms for November 13 to December 4 (fixed cohort per stay date). October day-of-week averages: N=19 properties, 1,038 rooms (31 days). Comparison area Sakai City, all categories: N=21 properties, 257 rooms for November 6, 7 and 14; N=19 properties, 255 rooms for November 21. |
| Pricing | This article covers booking pace only and does not include analysis of price levels. |
| Data as of | Data as of: November 8, 2026. Sales status and inventory change daily, so the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of collection. |
References and Sources
■ Data Sources
From daily observations of OTA published inventory continuously tracked by MetroEngines Research, we aggregated booking curves by stay date (45 days before the stay to the day before) and daily estimated OCC for October 2026 at the municipality × property type (ryokan) level. Comparison areas are Sakai City (all property types) and five snow crab areas on the Sea of Japan coast (Echizen Town, Kaga City, Toyooka City, Kami Town and Kyotango City, all ryokan). The dates and venue of the Mikuni Minato Crab Festival were confirmed with the public information listed below.
■ Calculation Assumptions
Estimated OCC = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Coverage is a fixed cohort per stay date of properties listing at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs; N= is the number of those properties and rooms. Fixed points such as 14 days out and 7 days out are calendar-day lead times from the stay date; the “final day” for October 31, November 6 and November 7 is the observation on the day before arrival. October day-of-week averages are simple averages of daily values by day of week over 31 days. Price levels are not covered.
■ Limitations and Caveats
Estimated OCC is an estimate based on inventory sell-through on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it tends to run higher because unlisted rooms are counted as sold). Stay dates from November 13 onward are interim figures from observations on November 7, 2026 (data retrieved November 8) and may change. Because cohorts are built per stay date, N= varies between 18 and 19 properties. Small areas such as Echizen Town (N=12 properties) can swing with the movement of just a few properties. The factors behind the opening-weekend lag (waiting to gauge the first landings, the Mikuni Minato Crab Festival and the three-day weekend) are inferences from observed data, and causality has not been verified.
■ References
| Fukui City official tourism site “Fukuiro (福いろ)”: Mikuni Minato Crab Festival 2026 (Echizen crab season opening date and event overview) https://fuku-iro.jp/event/detail_14067.html |
| iwafu: Mikuni Minato Crab Festival 2026 (event dates November 14–15, 2026) https://www.iwafu.com/jp/events/1164407 |
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