On the single slope that climbs Dogenzaka from Shibuya Station, both ends of the price spectrum will arrive at once between 2026 and 2027. According to building plans in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Building Activity Statistics, a 231-room limited-service hotel commissioned by APA Home and APA Mansion — APA Hotel Shibuya-Ekimae (アパホテル〈渋谷駅前〉), scheduled for completion on October 31, 2026 — is rising at Dogenzaka 2-chome 10, while further up the slope, in the Dogenzaka 2-chome South district, the redevelopment tower led by Mitsubishi Estate is slated to open “TRUNK(HOTEL) DOGENZAKA (tentative name)” in summer 2027. This article overlays the room stock within 1,000 m of Shibuya Station (28 active properties, 4,070 rooms), Shibuya Ward’s estimated achieved ADR (¥23,700 in September 2026, +10.0% YoY), and Dogenzaka’s official land prices (¥20.3M–¥27.0M/m²) to read the economics of “two price tiers entering the same slope” — for developers hunting central-Tokyo sites for limited-service and lifestyle hotels, and for funds holding income property in Shibuya.

The room stock in this article covers lodging properties with 10 or more rooms (excluding leisure/love hotels) within a 1,000 m radius of the reference point (35.6580°N, 139.7016°E). “Active” means a selling price was confirmed on major booking sites in the latest three months (August–October 2026) (as of October 20, 2026, compiled by MetroEngines Research). Booking curve = the trajectory of rooms remaining on major booking sites toward the check-in date. LT (lead time) = days until check-in (LT1 = the day before). The curves and OCC in this article use only observations within 45 days of lead time.

To put the conclusion first: room stock within 1 km of Shibuya Station grew 57% over the past decade, from 3,037 rooms (2017) to 4,755 rooms (2026, listed basis including scheduled openings), but that growth has been concentrated in “lifestyle hotels at ¥50,000–100,000” and “midscale at ¥25,000–50,000.” There is not a single large (200+ rooms) limited-service hotel with a listed price under ¥40,000, and among 100–200-room properties only one — an extended-stay hotel — is priced above ¥100,000. APA Hotel Shibuya-Ekimae’s 231 rooms and the TRUNK(HOTEL) DOGENZAKA plan each slot into one end of this gap. Restated per room, the difference in land cost between the two comes not from construction cost but from “the site area each room carries.” Below, we walk through the supply pipeline, existing stock, positioning, ADR and booking pace, land prices and location, and per-room cost, in that order.

Supply Pipeline — 231 Limited-Service Rooms and 120–130 Lifestyle Rooms on the Same Slope

First, let us lay out the hotel plans from 2026 onward that can be confirmed within 1 km of Shibuya Station. In our building-plan data, based on MLIT’s Building Activity Statistics, the project at Dogenzaka 2-chome 10, Shibuya Ward, is registered as “hotel, new build, 15 floors, total floor area 3,596.5 m², 231 rooms, construction start November 1, 2024, scheduled completion October 31, 2026, commissioned by APA Home Co., Ltd. / APA Mansion Co., Ltd.” Our property master captures this project as APA Hotel Shibuya-Ekimae, with opening expected within 2026 (our data). Because we could not confirm an opening date in APA Group’s official news releases at the time of writing, we do not state a fixed date. Within the same radius there is also the existing APA Hotel Shibuya Dogenzaka-Ue (アパホテル〈渋谷道玄坂上〉), which opened a 74-room South Wing on April 3, 2025, bringing it to two buildings and 247 rooms together with the existing 173-room building (Travel Watch, April 4, 2025). Expanding onto the adjacent lot after strong performance at the existing building, and then launching a second property on the station side, illustrates APA’s growth strategy of securing prime central-Tokyo locations block by block with limited-service hotels.

Up the slope, in the Dogenzaka 2-chome South district, a Type 1 urban redevelopment project in which Mitsubishi Estate participates as a business partner (implementer: Dogenzaka 2-chome South District Urban Redevelopment Association; area about 0.8 ha; total floor area about 87,095 m²; project cost about ¥76.7bn) broke ground on January 16, 2024, with completion scheduled for the end of February 2027. The office tower will have 30 floors above ground and the hotel tower 11 floors above ground and 2 below; “TRUNK(HOTEL) DOGENZAKA (tentative name)” is reported to occupy the hotel tower, with opening scheduled for summer 2027 (fashion-press, January 19, 2024; Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of Urban Development). When operator Take and Give Needs announced the plan in May 2022, it cited 120–130 rooms, room sizes of 28–120 m², and an expected room rate of ¥50,000–300,000 (fashionsnap, May 18, 2022); our building-plan data also registers it as “Dogenzaka 2-38, 130 rooms, hotel tower 11 floors.” This article treats these as planned figures (based on press reports). For the brand’s first project outside Tokyo, in Sapporo, we model an F&B- and spa-driven revenue structure in TRUNK(HOTEL) SAPPORO: 107-Room GOP Test.

Beyond these two, more plans are lined up within the radius. Sotetsu Urban Creates acquired a roughly 660 m² site six minutes’ walk from JR Shibuya Station on March 30, 2026, and is developing an 11-story, 31-room lifestyle hotel under Columbia Works’ new brand “NOCTIS,” targeting completion in December 2027 (Kanagawa Shimbun, April 10, 2026). The “Shibuya Upper West Project” on the former Tokyu Department Store main store site (Dogenzaka 2-chome 24) broke ground on March 11, 2025, and is scheduled for completion in FY2029, housing a hotel under “The House Collective” brand, rental residences, and Bunkamura The Museum (Tokyu, March 12, 2025; room count not disclosed). In other words, the pipeline around Dogenzaka is structured so that the price tier rises year by year: starting with 231 limited-service rooms in 2026, then two boutique projects in 2027, then small-scale luxury in FY2029. Hulic is also pursuing a hotel redevelopment on the former Hands Shibuya store site nearby, adding a further upper-tier option to the area’s medium-term pipeline.

Looking at the annual trend, stock grew from 20 properties / 3,037 rooms in 2017 to 27 properties / 3,579 rooms in 2019, then held flat at 3,633 rooms in 2020–2021. Hotel Indigo Tokyo Shibuya (272 rooms, inside PPIH’s “Dogenzaka-dori”) was added in 2023, taking the total to 3,989 rooms, and in 2024 lyf Shibuya Tokyo (200 rooms), Hyatt House Tokyo Shibuya (126 rooms), and HOTEL GRAPHY Shibuya (114 rooms) opened together, lifting the total to 4,440 rooms — an increase of 451 rooms in a single year. 2026 reaches 4,755 rooms with APA Hotel Shibuya-Ekimae’s 231 rooms plus VADE HOTEL SHIBUYA (74 rooms) and others, +19% versus 2023. Whereas the 2024 additions were a combination of lifestyle and extended-stay hotels, limited-service hotels account for 70% of the 2026 additions — a clear indication of the character of this round of supply.

Existing Stock Within 1 km — Six Large Hotels Hold 43%; 2000s and 2020s Vintages Dominate

Next, we examine the structure of the existing stock that the new supply will enter. Within the 1,000 m radius there are 40 lodging properties / 5,233 rooms with 10 or more rooms on a listed basis, of which 28 properties / 4,070 rooms were active, with selling prices confirmed on major booking sites in the latest three months (August–October 2026). By segment, business hotels account for 14 properties / 1,805 rooms, or 44% of active rooms, followed by deluxe hotels with 4 properties / 1,092 rooms (27%) and city hotels with 4 properties / 733 rooms (18%). By size, the six properties with 201 or more rooms alone account for 1,753 rooms (43%): Shibuya Excel Hotel Tokyu (408 rooms), Cerulean Tower Tokyu Hotel (403 rooms), Hotel Indigo Tokyo Shibuya (272 rooms), sequence MIYASHITA PARK (240 rooms), Shibuya Tokyu REI Hotel (225 rooms), and Shibuya Tobu Hotel (205 rooms).

By opening vintage, active rooms in properties opened in the 2000s (5 properties / 1,261 rooms, including Cerulean Tower Tokyu Hotel, Shibuya Excel Hotel Tokyu, and JR-East Hotel Mets Shibuya) and in the 2020s (9 properties / 1,205 rooms) are roughly equal in weight, followed by the 2010s (9 properties / 1,009 rooms). Properties opened in the 1970s–90s amount to only 5 properties / 595 rooms, so the stock in the radius is relatively young. While the 2000s cohort, now more than 20 years old, is entering its renovation cycle, the 2020s cohort is centered on lifestyle and extended-stay hotels with fresh product. The arrival of a new-build limited-service hotel in 2026 means that, within this young stock, the combination of “new build, large, value tier” is being supplied for the first time in a long while.

Positioning — “200+ Rooms × Under ¥40,000” and “100–200 Rooms × Over ¥100,000” Are Empty

So where do the properties in the radius cluster on the plane of room count and price? Of the 28 active properties, we plotted the 25 whose listed price (all-plan average, double occupancy, tax-inclusive) was observed in 10 or more of the 12 months from October 2025 to September 2026. By listed price band, the distribution is: ¥100,000 and above, 3 properties / 544 rooms (Cerulean Tower Tokyu Hotel, Hyatt House Tokyo Shibuya, TRUNK HOTEL); ¥50,000–100,000, 10 properties / 1,842 rooms; ¥25,000–50,000, 11 properties / 1,531 rooms; and under ¥25,000, 1 property / 72 rooms.

Two white spaces can be read from the chart. The first is the area of more than 200 rooms on the horizontal axis and under ¥40,000 on the vertical axis (WS1): all seven properties in the radius with 200 or more rooms have listed prices of ¥40,000 or more, and no large value-tier limited-service hotel exists. The existing APA Hotel Shibuya Dogenzaka-Ue (173 rooms, average listed price ¥31,200) sits in this price band but has fewer than 200 rooms; APA Hotel Shibuya-Ekimae’s 231 rooms fit squarely into this gap. The second is the area of 100–200 rooms with listed prices above ¥100,000 (WS2), where the only occupant is the extended-stay Hyatt House Tokyo Shibuya (126 rooms, opened February 26, 2024) (among properties with more than 200 rooms, the 403-room Cerulean Tower Tokyu Hotel is above ¥100,000). TRUNK(HOTEL) DOGENZAKA’s 120–130 rooms at an expected ¥50,000–300,000 would bring a full-service boutique hotel into this area for the first time. Whether the same brand can replicate, at more than eight times the scale, the track record of the existing TRUNK HOTEL (15 rooms), which has achieved listed prices above ¥150,000 at a small scale, will be the litmus test of how deep WS2 demand really is.

Shibuya Ward Estimated Achieved ADR — ¥23,700 in September, +10.0% YoY

On pricing, Shibuya Ward’s estimated achieved ADR (median of verified segments) reached ¥23,700 in September 2026, up 10.0% from ¥21,500 a year earlier (N=33 properties). July 2026 was ¥22,000 (+9.2%) and August ¥20,600 (+8.0%), so rates stayed nearly 10% above the prior year throughout the summer. The January–September average of ¥24,400 is up 11.4% from ¥21,900 in the same period last year and already exceeds the full-year 2025 figure of ¥23,600. Tokyo’s overall estimated achieved ADR was ¥13,700 in September 2026 (N=1,139 properties), putting Shibuya Ward at 1.7 times that level. By segment, the estimated achieved ADR of business hotels was ¥22,800 in September 2026 (+5.9% YoY, N=27 properties), with a latest-12-month average of ¥23,700.

Overlaying the seasonal pattern, Shibuya Ward has a twin-peak profile, with peaks in March–May and October–December and troughs in January and June–August. In 2026 the spring peak sat a notch higher than the prior year — ¥28,500 in March and ¥30,400 in April (vs. ¥24,700 and ¥26,700) — and the summer trough also ran above last year’s level. October–December are estimates based on listed rate levels at the survey date: ¥33,900 for October, ¥34,800 for November and ¥29,600 for December, above last autumn’s ¥27,844–30,000, but these are interim readings that will move as check-in dates approach and must be distinguished from finalized months. If APA Hotel Shibuya-Ekimae opens within 2026, it will coincide with the autumn peak, when rates are highest all year — a tailwind for a ramp-up.

Booking Curves — Shibuya Ward Goes From 64.7% at 45 Days Out to 93.2% the Day Before; Limited-Service Hotels Gain Most Late

It is also worth checking how demand fills in. For October 2026 check-in dates, we lined up monthly-average occupancy (based on inventory listed on major booking sites, estimated) from 45 days out to the day before. Shibuya Ward as a whole (21 properties / 3,938 rooms) progresses from 64.7% at 45 days out to 70.6% at 30 days, 78.8% at 14 days and 83.0% at 7 days, reaching 93.2% the day before. Shibuya Ward business hotels (13 properties / 2,582 rooms) start from a somewhat lower 56.4% at 45 days out, but build 17 points in the final two weeks: 75.0% at 14 days, 79.9% at 7 days and 92.3% the day before. Because Shibuya Ward alone has too few city and deluxe hotels, we look at Tokyo as a whole for those segments: city hotels (52 properties / 15,988 rooms) start at 76.1% at 45 days out and deluxe hotels (22 properties / 3,928 rooms) at 72.6%, both converging at 94.4% the day before.

This difference in shape directly reflects the different operating styles of the two price tiers. Upper segments are already in the 70% range at 45 days out, securing higher-rated bookings early and tightening remaining inventory close in. Limited-service hotels are in the 50% range at 45 days out, but have the steepest slope from 14 days to the day before, broadly capturing last-minute demand and reaching the same 90% range as upper segments by the day before. The two new supplies entering the same slope are therefore better read as sharing customer layers with different booking time horizons, rather than competing for the same night’s demand. Note that observations earlier than 45 days out include periods before allotments are loaded, so they are not used in this article.

Location and Land Prices — Dogenzaka 2-chome Is a Commercial Zone With 800% FAR; Official Land Prices Up 5.5–8.0%

Turning to site conditions: according to zoning data in MLIT’s Real Estate Information Library, the APA Hotel Shibuya-Ekimae site (Dogenzaka 2-chome 10) is in a commercial zone with a floor area ratio (FAR) of 800% and a building coverage ratio of 80%; blocks immediately next to Shibuya Station have a FAR of 1000%. Official land prices (as of January 1, 2026) were ¥27.0M/m² at Dogenzaka 2-chome 36-10 (Shibuya 5-14, +5.5% YoY), ¥20.3M/m² at Dogenzaka 2-chome 213 (Shibuya 5-12, +8.0%), and ¥35.3M/m² at Udagawacho 77-14 (Shibuya 5-22, +5.4%), while Dogenzaka 1-chome 16-18 (Shibuya 5-1), down the slope, was ¥7.75M/m² (+13.5%) — one-third the level but with a higher growth rate. As at Sakuragaokacho 15-6 (Shibuya 5-13) at +29.0% and Maruyamacho 31-1 (Shibuya 5-18) at +16.7%, the pattern of faster growth on the periphery of the station-front redevelopments continues. In the prefectural land price survey as of July 1, 2026, Dogenzaka 2-chome 213 stood at ¥21.0M/m² (+8.2%), showing no break in the rise through mid-year.

The station’s drawing power is also a premise of site valuation. According to National Land Numerical Information passenger data, Shibuya Station’s daily passengers in FY2023 were 1,036,352 on the Toyoko Line, 628,118 on the Yamanote Line, 285,759 on the Inokashira Line and 179,645 on the Ginza Line; from the FY2020 trough (Toyoko Line 732,759, Yamanote Line 444,300), both the Toyoko and Yamanote lines recovered 41% in three years. Relative to FY2019 levels (Toyoko Line 1,381,618, Yamanote Line 741,712), the Toyoko Line has recovered to 75% and the Yamanote Line to 85%, leaving room for further gains once FY2024 and later figures are published. Within a 1 km radius there are 243,735 workers and 12,796 establishments, with office workers accounting for 39.2% — a deep base for business demand as well.

Land Cost per Room — About ¥40M for Limited-Service, About ¥150M for Lifestyle

Here is the heart of this article: restating everything per room, we estimate how the economics of the two price tiers diverge on the same Dogenzaka. For the limited-service hotel we use actual building-plan figures: total floor area 3,596.5 m² ÷ 231 rooms = 15.6 m² per room; assuming the full 800% FAR is used, the required site is about 450 m², or 1.95 m² of site per room. For the lifestyle hotel, given a plan with 28–120 m² rooms plus a rooftop pool and restaurants, we use 60 m² of total floor area per room as the base case (90 m² as the upper case); at the same 800% FAR, that means 7.5 m² of site per room (11.3 m² in the upper case). Setting the land price at the Dogenzaka 2-chome official point of ¥20.3M/m², the land cost each room carries is about ¥39.5M for the limited-service hotel versus about ¥152M for the lifestyle hotel (about ¥228M in the upper case) — a 3.9x gap. (For an estimate using the same method in Ginza, where land prices are a notch higher, see Ginza Hotel Pipeline: 16 Sites, Required ADR at ¥52.5M/m².)

What this table shows is the structure of Dogenzaka: the land gap (about ¥40M vs. about ¥150M) is larger than the construction cost gap (about ¥11M vs. about ¥60M per room). The limited-service hotel comes to about ¥51M per room for land and construction combined — almost the same as the roughly ¥51.4M per-room acquisition price of The OneFive Tokyo Shibuya (72 rooms), acquired within the radius by Ichigo Hotel REIT in 2020. New-build cost matching REIT acquisition prices means that, for a limited-service hotel, an exit can be drawn even at Dogenzaka 2-chome land prices — which supports the rationale behind APA’s decision to launch a second property on the station side. The lifestyle hotel, by contrast, must recover a cost of more than ¥200M per room on a standalone purchase through rooms with expected rates of ¥50,000–300,000, which makes it far more viable within a framework where land is obtained through redevelopment rights conversion. That TRUNK(HOTEL) DOGENZAKA, arriving on Dogenzaka in summer 2027, is planned inside a redevelopment building can be read as a consequence of these economics.

Sketching revenue in simple terms: for the 231-room limited-service model, applying the latest-12-month average estimated achieved ADR of Shibuya Ward business hotels (¥23,700) and an occupancy rate of 85% (this article’s assumption, full year) gives annual room revenue of about ¥1.7bn; at a GOP margin of 50% (this article’s assumption), GOP is about ¥850M, implying a total investment yield in the 7% range on land plus construction of about ¥11.8bn (¥51M per room × 231 rooms). Replacing the land price with ¥27.0M/m² raises the investment to about ¥14.8bn and lowers the yield to the high-5% range. For a 125-room lifestyle model, setting the expected rate at a midpoint of ¥60,000, occupancy at 80% (this article’s assumption, full year) and GOP margin at 30% (the upper end of the 10–30% guideline for full-service hotels) gives annual room revenue of about ¥2.19bn and GOP of about ¥660M. On a standalone purchase, with an investment of about ¥26.3bn (¥210M per room × 125 rooms), the yield stays in the 2% range; but if land cost can be compressed as entitlement floor space, the yield on construction cost alone of about ¥7.5bn (about ¥60M × 125 rooms) jumps into the 8% range. The lesson of Dogenzaka is that the investment opportunity for lifestyle hotels lies not in buying sites but in participating in redevelopment.

To see how far the 7%-range point estimate can move, we shift the assumptions. For the 231-room limited-service model, we recalculated the total investment yield under pessimistic, mid and optimistic scenarios, and along two axes of estimated achieved ADR (±20%) × occupancy (75–95%) (investment held fixed at about ¥11.8bn, based on a land price of ¥20.3M/m²).

In the two-axis table (occupancy assumed on a full-year basis), the total investment yield ranges from 5.1% (ADR −20%, occupancy 75%) to 9.7% (ADR +20%, occupancy 95%). Even if occupancy falls to 75% at the base ADR, the yield is 6.4%, and even if ADR falls 10% with occupancy at 85% (full year), it is 6.5%; it drops below 6% only when ADR falls 20% with occupancy at 85% or below, or when ADR falls 10% and occupancy drops to 75%. With the investment at about ¥14.8bn based on a land price of ¥27.0M/m², the same table shifts down uniformly by about 20%, meaning that differences in land price within Dogenzaka 2-chome move yields about as much as a 20% swing in ADR.

Implications for Investment Decisions — What Separates the Two Ends Is How Land Is Carried, Not the Price Tier

Finally, we summarize by intended reader. For developers seeking limited-service sites in central Tokyo, the 1 km radius of Shibuya Station still has a white space for 200+ rooms in the value tier, and as long as land cost per room stays around ¥40M, new-build cost matches REIT acquisition prices. With Shibuya Ward’s estimated achieved ADR up 10.0% YoY and business hotels adding a substantial 17 points of bookings in the final two weeks, demand in this price tier is both broad and deep. For those seeking lifestyle hotel sites, the decision is to prioritize entry points that compress land cost — participation in redevelopment or conversion of existing buildings — on the premise that a standalone purchase means carrying more than ¥150M of land per room. For funds holding income property in Shibuya, the +231 rooms in 2026 equal 5.7% of active rooms, and even including the planned 2027 additions (120–130 rooms + 31 rooms) the increase stays within +9–10%; the new supply is of an absorbable scale, and the period is better positioned as one in which unrealized gains on holdings accumulate as official land prices keep rising 5–8% a year.

Summary

Room stock within 1 km of Shibuya Station stands at 28 active properties / 4,070 rooms, or 40 properties / 5,233 rooms on a listed basis, and the 57% growth of the past decade has been concentrated in lifestyle hotels and the midscale band. APA Hotel Shibuya-Ekimae (231 rooms), scheduled to open within 2026, enters the “200+ rooms × under ¥40,000” white space, and TRUNK(HOTEL) DOGENZAKA (planned 120–130 rooms), scheduled to open in summer 2027, enters the “100–200 rooms × over ¥100,000” white space. Shibuya Ward’s estimated achieved ADR was ¥23,700 in September 2026 (+10.0% YoY), and occupancy for October check-ins progressed from 64.7% at 45 days out to 93.2% the day before — demand retains the depth to absorb additional supply. What separates the two price tiers lined up on the same slope is not construction cost but the site area each room carries. The limited-service hotel, at about 1.95 m² and about ¥40M of land per room, brings new-build cost in line with REIT acquisition prices; the lifestyle hotel works by taking on 7.5 m² and about ¥150M of land per room within a redevelopment framework. Dogenzaka in 2026–2027 will be a valuable moment for judging central-Tokyo hotel sites, offering a chance to observe the difference between these two entry points in the same place.

Source: Hyatt Hotels Japan, press materials, April 2026 (Hyatt House Tokyo Shibuya: opened February 26, 2024, 126 rooms)