Settled ADR (estimated) for Osaka’s hotel market in September 2026 is now final. Business hotels came in at ¥8,872 (N=504), down 34.0% from ¥13,450 (N=498) a year earlier, and city hotels at ¥13,077 (N=97), down 21.8% from ¥16,733 (N=91). Both declines are steep. But September 2025 fell within the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai period (April 13 – October 13, 2025), so the comparison base itself was unusually high. Set against September 2024, before the Expo, business hotels are up 1.0% and city hotels up 15.4%, meaning rates have returned to, or above, where they were two years ago. This article layers three yardsticks — YoY, change vs the same month of 2024, and estimated OCC — to show where revenue managers should set their baseline during the post-Expo rebound.
Scope: Osaka business hotels N=504 properties and city hotels N=97 properties (both the settled-ADR calculation base for September 2026). The price metric used throughout is settled ADR (estimated) — the achieved price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent; occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of October 26, 2026.
- — Business −34.0%, city −21.8%: Osaka’s settled ADR for September 2026 (final) was ¥8,872 for business hotels (N=504) and ¥13,077 for city hotels (N=97) — the fourth straight month since June well below the prior year.
- — Vs the same month of 2024: business +1.0%, city +15.4%: September 2025 fell inside the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai period, so the comparison base was unusually high. City hotels’ ¥11,336 in September 2024 was on the low side, so that figure should be discounted.
- — April–September average converges on 2024 levels: On a six-month average, business hotels are −0.4% vs 2024 and city hotels +3.9%. The Expo-period spike (business +43.5%, city +33.4%) is what drives the YoY gap.
- — Estimated OCC holds around 80%: September 2026 monthly averages were 80.0% for business and 82.0% for city hotels (OTA-listed inventory basis). On September 20, the middle of the five-day holiday, both segments reached 100.0%.
- — Treat October onward as “current estimates” of level only: October looks higher than the September final at ¥11,111 for business and ¥15,844 for city, but the calculation basis differs, so YoY should wait until the month is finalized.
Final September YoY — Business −34.0%, City −21.8% Reflect the Removal of the “Expo Peak”
Start with YoY between finalized months. Settled ADR for business hotels was ¥7,884 in June 2026 (−32.8% YoY), ¥8,429 in July (−31.9%), ¥8,772 in August (−33.6%) and ¥8,872 in September (−34.0%) — four consecutive months of declines exceeding 30%. For city hotels the decline narrowed gradually, from −26.3% in June to −25.1% in July, −24.4% in August and −21.8% in September, showing a segment gap in how prices are recovering.
Still, it is too early to conclude from these figures alone that “Osaka rates have collapsed.” Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai ran from April 13 to October 13, 2025, and settled ADR for April–September 2025 exceeded the same months of 2024 by 35.6–53.1% for business hotels and 27.6–47.6% for city hotels. The YoY decline is more naturally read as the removal of that temporary peak. How to combine post-Expo YoY with two-year comparisons is also covered in Osaka Settled ADR −25% YoY but +1.6% vs 2024.
As a second baseline, the table below lists the change against the same month of 2024, before the Expo. For business hotels, April–September 2026 stays within −5.5% to +6.5% of 2024, with September essentially flat at +1.0%. City hotels were above 2024 in every month except June (−6.0%) and August (−0.9%), reaching +15.4% in September. However, city hotels’ September 2024 figure of ¥11,336 was lower than the surrounding months, so September’s +15.4% needs to be discounted.
| Segment / Month | 2024 (Final) | 2025 (Final, Expo Period) | 2026 (Final) | YoY | vs Same Month 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Apr | ¥9,529 (N=492) | ¥12,917 (N=503) | ¥9,845 (N=498) | −23.8% | +3.3% |
| Business May | ¥9,108 (N=494) | ¥13,383 (N=503) | ¥9,699 (N=499) | −27.5% | +6.5% |
| Business Jun | ¥8,339 (N=494) | ¥11,735 (N=502) | ¥7,884 (N=495) | −32.8% | −5.5% |
| Business Jul | ¥8,698 (N=496) | ¥12,380 (N=502) | ¥8,429 (N=497) | −31.9% | −3.1% |
| Business Aug | ¥9,247 (N=495) | ¥13,211 (N=499) | ¥8,772 (N=503) | −33.6% | −5.1% |
| Business Sep | ¥8,784 (N=494) | ¥13,450 (N=498) | ¥8,872 (N=504) | −34.0% | +1.0% |
| City Apr | ¥12,216 (N=83) | ¥15,981 (N=91) | ¥13,091 (N=94) | −18.1% | +7.2% |
| City May | ¥12,018 (N=84) | ¥15,441 (N=91) | ¥12,878 (N=94) | −16.6% | +7.2% |
| City Jun | ¥11,460 (N=85) | ¥14,621 (N=91) | ¥10,769 (N=95) | −26.3% | −6.0% |
| City Jul | ¥12,384 (N=88) | ¥16,798 (N=90) | ¥12,582 (N=97) | −25.1% | +1.6% |
| City Aug | ¥13,203 (N=88) | ¥17,291 (N=91) | ¥13,078 (N=97) | −24.4% | −0.9% |
| City Sep | ¥11,336 (N=88) | ¥16,733 (N=91) | ¥13,077 (N=97) | −21.8% | +15.4% |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (settled ADR, tax-excluded equivalent; all months final)
Taking a simple average of the six months April–September, business hotels were ¥8,951 in 2024, ¥12,846 in 2025 and ¥8,917 in 2026 — 2026 is back to essentially the 2024 level at −0.4%. City hotels were ¥12,103 in 2024, ¥16,144 in 2025 and ¥12,579 in 2026, slightly above two years ago at +3.9% vs 2024. The YoY gap between business and city hotels (a little over −30% vs a little over −20%) is the flip side of business hotel rates having jumped more during the Expo (six-month average +43.5% vs 2024, against +33.4% for city hotels). Lining up business hotels nationwide for the same September makes Osaka’s position clearer; that comparison is analyzed in detail in Business Hotel ADR Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY.
Three Years Overlaid — The 2026 Line Tracks the 2024 Line
Overlaying the monthly trend year by year makes the picture even clearer. The 2026 line for business hotels (dark blue) moves almost along the 2024 line (gray) from April onward, while only the 2025 line (light blue) rises sharply during the Expo period. The dotted segment for October–December is an estimate based on current sales and uses a different calculation basis from finalized values.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Osaka business hotels, settled ADR, N=484–504; October–December 2026 are current estimates)
City hotels show the same basic shape, but in many months the 2026 line runs slightly above the 2024 line. This suggests that part of the segment’s rate uplift has survived the post-Expo reversal.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Osaka city hotels, settled ADR, N=83–97; October–December 2026 are current estimates)
The point to watch is the seam between finalized months and current estimates. Current estimates put business hotels at ¥11,111 (N=499) for October and ¥11,100 (N=496) for November, and city hotels at ¥15,844 (N=97) for October and ¥15,131 (N=97) for November. These look much higher than the September final, but current estimates are calculated from ongoing sales and tend to show a step when placed next to finalized values. For that reason, this article does not calculate YoY change for October onward and treats those figures only as an indication of level. Simple comparisons with finalized values should wait until each month closes.
| Stay Month | Business (Current Estimate) | City (Current Estimate) | Ref: Business, Same Month 2024 (Final) | Ref: City, Same Month 2024 (Final) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | ¥11,111 (N=499) | ¥15,844 (N=97) | ¥9,268 (N=495) | ¥12,484 (N=88) |
| Nov 2026 | ¥11,100 (N=496) | ¥15,131 (N=97) | ¥10,035 (N=495) | ¥12,643 (N=88) |
| Dec 2026 | ¥10,225 (N=493) | ¥14,282 (N=97) | ¥9,940 (N=499) | ¥12,886 (N=88) |
| Jan 2027 | ¥9,530 (N=475) | ¥12,614 (N=96) | — | — |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (current estimates are based on sales as of October 26, 2026 and may change; 2024 figures are final values on a different calculation basis, so rates of change are not shown)
Estimated OCC Holds Around 80% — Lower Rates, but Fill Patterns Remain Intact
With rates back at 2024 levels, the natural question is occupancy. The September 2026 monthly average of estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) was 80.0% for business hotels (285–300 properties, 47,820–49,130 rooms) and 82.0% for city hotels (34–40 properties, 7,905–9,042 rooms). Earlier in the year it was 77.1% / 79.5% (business / city) in June, 81.1% / 83.9% in July and 80.1% / 83.6% in August, holding around 80% from summer into autumn.
The standout within September was the five-day holiday from Saturday, September 19 to Wednesday, September 23 (Autumnal Equinox Day). On Sunday the 20th, the middle of the holiday, estimated OCC hit 100.0% for both business and city hotels, and on Monday the 21st (Respect for the Aged Day) it was 98.3% for business and 98.8% for city — listed inventory was almost fully absorbed. On the final day, the 23rd, it fell to 66.2% for business and 74.6% for city, showing peaks and troughs in demand swapping places within a few days. By day of week, business hotels averaged 86.3% on Saturdays versus 76.0% on Sundays, a gap of just over 10 points. For a day-by-day comparison of the five-day holiday with other areas, see also Silver Week 2026 Actuals: Day-by-Day Review Across 7 Areas × 4 Segments.
Next, a look at how recent bookings are building. The booking curves below plot estimated OCC from 45 days before arrival up to the day before, for the stay dates Wednesday, October 14 and Saturday, October 24 (business: 296–297 properties, approx. 48,000 rooms; city: 41 properties, 9,873 rooms).
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Osaka, estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis; business N=296–297 properties, city N=41 properties)
For business hotels on October 14 (a weekday), estimated OCC was 50.1% at 45 days out, 57.7% at 30 days out and 92.3% the day before — a build of +42.2 points over 45 days. Of that, +34.6 points came in the last 30 days, so weekdays are a “fill in the final month” pattern. For the same business hotels, October 24 (Saturday) was already at 68.4% at 45 days out, 78.3% at 30 days and 95.6% the day before, with demand arriving early. City hotels started higher and added less: October 24 went from 86.4% at 45 days out to 98.1% the day before, and October 14 from 77.8% to 94.5%.
The next table lists upcoming stay dates based on observations to date. Saturday, November 21 is the first day of a three-day weekend running through Monday the 23rd (Labor Thanksgiving Day), and city hotels had already reached 96.9% at 30 days out. By contrast, Wednesday, November 11 stood at only 65.6% for business hotels (17 days out), a sharp contrast between weekdays and holidays.
| Stay Date | Business 45 Days Out | Business 30 Days Out | Business Latest | City 45 Days Out | City 30 Days Out | City Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7 | 71.6% | 77.5% | 85.2% (13 days out) | 86.4% | 89.0% | 92.9% (13 days out) |
| Wed, Nov 11 | 50.5% | 57.9% | 65.6% (17 days out) | 77.0% | 79.2% | 82.2% (17 days out) |
| Sat, Nov 21 | 70.3% | 80.1% | 81.3% (27 days out) | 92.3% | 96.9% | 97.3% (27 days out) |
| Sat, Nov 28 | 65.1% | — | 70.1% (34 days out) | 82.3% | — | 86.6% (34 days out) |
| Sat, Dec 5 | 58.8% | — | 60.4% (41 days out) | 76.8% | — | 78.1% (41 days out) |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis; business N=295–297 properties, 48,470–48,730 rooms; city N=41 properties, 9,873 rooms; latest observation as of late October 2026)
Putting it all together, Osaka in 2026 is in a phase of “rates back at 2024 levels, occupancy secured at around 80%.” Rather than piling on discounts in response to the large YoY declines alone, a better approach is to reset the baseline to 2024 and look for room to restore rates on high-demand dates.
For Revenue Managers at Osaka Business and City Hotels — Implications and Action Plan
1. Switch the budget-vs-actual comparison axis from “prior year” to “2024.” The YoY figures of −34.0% for business and −21.8% for city hotels are comparisons with an exceptional Expo year. Using only YoY in internal budget tracking or head-office reporting makes performance look worse than it is and risks prompting unnecessary price cuts. Showing change vs the same month of 2024 (business +1.0%, city +15.4%) alongside YoY puts the discussion on a common footing.
2. Use the market’s settled ADR as a “floor reference” for your own property. The September market level was ¥8,872 for business hotels and ¥13,077 for city hotels. If your property’s achieved rate for the same month is well below this, your occupancy-chasing pricing may be cutting deeper than the market. If it is above, you can treat that as evidence that location or product strength is sustaining your rate.
3. Price holidays and weekdays differently. In the September five-day holiday, estimated OCC hit 100.0% for both business and city hotels mid-holiday, while the final day dropped to the 60–70% range. For the three-day weekend starting November 21, city hotels were already at 96.9% at 30 days out, so there is room to restore rates early on high-demand dates. On weekdays, where much of the build comes in the final month, one option is to avoid locking in low rates too early.
4. Use current estimates for October onward only as an indication of level. Current estimates for October and November — about ¥11,100 for business hotels and the ¥15,000 range for city hotels — look higher than the September final, but the different calculation basis tends to produce a step. Building in a routine to wait for month-end finalization and then re-evaluate against both the prior year and 2024 helps prevent misreads.
| Timing | Action | Decision Trigger (Figures from This Article) | Objective |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week | Add a “vs same month of 2024” column to budget-vs-actual reports | Market YoY is −34.0% for business and −21.8% for city, while vs 2024 it is +1.0% and +15.4% — opposite signs | Avoid excessive pessimism driven by the post-Expo reversal |
| This week | Compare your property’s September achieved rate with the market’s settled ADR | If your September rate remains below ¥8,872 (business) / ¥13,077 (city), review how deep your pricing goes | Check whether discounting to secure occupancy has gone too far |
| Within 2 weeks | Revisit selling rates for the November 21–23 three-day weekend | Market estimated OCC for city hotels reached 96.9% at 30 days out, and 80.1% for business hotels | Consider restoring rates on high-demand dates |
| Within 2 weeks | Avoid fixing weekday rates (e.g. November 11) too firmly ahead of arrival | Business hotel weekdays added +34.6 points from 30 days out onward (October 14 example) | Keep rate tiers that capture last-minute demand |
| Toward next month | Once October is finalized, re-evaluate against both the prior year and 2024 | October current estimates are ¥11,111 (business) and ¥15,844 (city), prone to a step vs final values | Prevent incorrect pricing changes caused by mixing estimates with final values |
| Toward next month | Prepare a proposal to use 2024 actuals as the base year for budgets from spring 2027 | On the April–September average, 2026 is −0.4% vs 2024 for business and +3.9% for city — converging on 2024 levels | Set budgets at realistic levels once the reversal has run its course |
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Osaka’s Post-Expo Period
The first yardstick is to “always show YoY and change vs 2024 side by side.” Final September YoY is −34.0% for business and −21.8% for city hotels, but against 2024 it is +1.0% and +15.4% — a very different picture. The second is to “read rates and estimated OCC as a pair”: September estimated OCC held around 80%, at 80.0% for business and 82.0% for city hotels, so demand itself has not disappeared. The third is to “never mix final values with current estimates.” Figures for October onward need to be re-evaluated once each month is finalized.
A year after the Expo closed, YoY figures are likely to keep printing large declines from autumn 2026 through spring 2027. Rather than being swayed by the sign of the numbers, revenue managers can use 2024 as a normal-year baseline, together with day-to-day booking build-up, to pick off the dates where rates can be restored, one by one.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. What was Osaka’s settled ADR for September 2026?
A. On a final basis, ¥8,872 for business hotels (N=504) and ¥13,077 for city hotels (N=97). YoY changes were −34.0% and −21.8% respectively.
Q. Why is the YoY decline so large?
A. Because September 2025 fell within the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai period, when rates were higher than usual. Compared with September 2024, before the Expo, business hotels are up 1.0% and city hotels up 15.4%.
Q. Can figures for October onward also be compared with the prior year?
A. Figures for October onward are estimates based on current sales and use a different calculation basis from final values. We recommend comparing with the prior year only after the final values are available at month-end.
Q. Is estimated OCC the same as actual room occupancy?
A. No. Estimated OCC is an estimate on an OTA-listed inventory basis, calculated from remaining OTA-listed rooms. Because unlisted rooms are counted as sold, it reads higher than actual room occupancy. The September 2026 monthly averages were 80.0% for business hotels (285–300 properties) and 82.0% for city hotels (34–40 properties).
Q. Is there a difference in booking pace between November’s holiday weekend and weekdays?
A. Yes. For the three-day weekend from Saturday, November 21, city hotels’ estimated OCC had reached 96.9% at 30 days out, while business hotels on Wednesday, November 11 stood at only 65.6% at 17 days out (both observed as of late October 2026).
About the Data
| Estimated OCC definition | OTA-listed inventory occupancy = 100 − 100 × remaining OTA-listed rooms ÷ total rooms. Based on a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; property counts are given in the text). It is an estimate based on the absorption of inventory sold on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it reads higher, because unlisted rooms are counted as sold). |
| Booking curves | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the most recent observation. |
| Settled ADR definition | The achieved price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × segment-specific factor, ensembled across multiple channels). Past months are final values; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error of 6.6% when reconciled against published operating results. |
| Sample size (N) | Settled ADR: Osaka business hotels N=475–504 properties per month; city hotels N=83–97 properties (each month’s value is shown in the tables and chart notes). Estimated OCC (September 2026): business 285–300 properties, 47,820–49,130 rooms; city 34–40 properties, 7,905–9,042 rooms. Booking curves: business 295–297 properties, 48,108–48,730 rooms; city 41 properties, 9,873 rooms. |
| Data as of | Data as of October 26, 2026. Because sales and inventory change daily, figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. |
References and Sources
■ Data Sources
MetroEngines Research settled ADR (monthly area values for Osaka business and city hotels, January 2024 – January 2027), daily estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis (stays June–September 2026), and booking curves from 45 days before the stay date (stays October 14 – December 5, 2026; latest observation late October 2026). Expo dates are as published by the official website and JETRO.
■ Calculation Assumptions
YoY and change vs the same month of 2024 are calculated only between finalized months (September 2026 and earlier); current estimates for October onward are not used to calculate rates of change. April–September averages are simple averages of monthly values. Values are at the prefecture level and are not broken down by city or ward. Estimated OCC and booking curves use a fixed cohort with the same set of properties for each stay date; the number of properties and rooms is given in the text.
■ Limitations and Caveats
Settled ADR is an estimated achieved price level (tax-excluded equivalent) derived from OTA and other sales data and does not match any individual hotel’s actual rate. Estimated OCC reads higher than actual room occupancy because unlisted rooms are counted as sold. Current estimates change daily with sales and tend to show a step against final values. City hotels’ September 2024 figure was lower than surrounding months, so the +15.4% vs the same month includes the effect of that base month.
| EXPO 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan official website (period: April 13 – October 13, 2025) | https://www.expo2025.or.jp/ |
| JETRO, “Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai: Latest Updates on National and Regional Pavilions” (Japanese) | https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/feature/expo2025.html |
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