Ehime’s lodging market held flat in 2025, with total guest nights of 4.34 million (−0.7% YoY), but foreign guest nights rose to 580,000 (+28.3%) and the room occupancy rate recovered to 56.9% (+1.7pt) (Japan Tourism Agency, Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, 2025 preliminary figures compiled by the Shikoku District Transport Bureau). On top of that demand, three hotels with 684 rooms opened in Matsuyama City in 2026. This article overlays estimated settled ADR by municipality, estimated occupancy by hotel type, sell-out status for the night of September 20 (Silver Week), the trend in room stock within 1 km of Matsuyama-shi Station, and MLIT zoning and flood inundation data to identify the price bands and locations where development potential remains in Ehime.

The bottom line first. Ehime’s price hierarchy has three tiers: Matsuyama City at the top (estimated settled ADR about ¥10,100), Ozu and Imabari in the middle (¥6,900–7,400), and the cities of Toyo (eastern Ehime) and Nanyo (southern Ehime) at ¥5,200–6,300. Estimated occupancy varies widely by type, with ryokan above 90% and business hotels just under 80%. For the night of September 20, all 85 properties that met the criteria—out of 211 that could be assessed from listed inventory—sold out, and 35 had sold out 45 or more days before the stay date. The estimated settled ADR band of ¥15,000–25,000 is thin, with only 6 observed properties and 321 rooms, and 4 of them sold out 45+ days in advance, making it the most undersupplied price band in the prefecture. Meanwhile, at current construction cost levels, a new build in central Matsuyama needs a settled ADR of around ¥30,000 to break even, which suggests that acquiring and renovating existing buildings is more rational than filling the gap with new construction.

Prefecture Overview — Foreign Guests +28.3% in 2025; Est. Settled ADR +4.5% YoY in September 2026

Let us start with the prefecture-wide level. MetroEngines Research’s estimated settled ADR was ¥7,100 in September 2026 (N=210), +4.5% from ¥6,800 in the same month a year earlier. The annual pattern peaks in January, May, August and November, with June as the trough. By type, ryokan stood at ¥10,600 (N=77, +11.4% YoY), city hotels at ¥7,700 (N=23, −1.8%), and business hotels at ¥6,100 (N=101, +3.5%), with ryokan driving rate growth.

Behind this is a shift in the demand mix. According to the 2025 preliminary figures of the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (compiled by the Shikoku District Transport Bureau), of Ehime’s 4.341 million total guest nights, foreign guests accounted for 580,000 (+28.3% YoY) while Japanese guests accounted for 3.761 million (−4.1%). The room occupancy rate was 56.9%, up 1.7pt year on year, above the four-prefecture Shikoku average of 54.9%. Matsuyama City estimates that tourist visitors in 2025 reached about 6.36 million, surpassing 2019; the foreign visitor mix is centered on South Korea (56%) and Taiwan (22%), and international flights at Matsuyama Airport reached a record 23 per week as of March 2025 (Seoul 14, Busan 6, Taipei 3). The rise in ryokan rates can be read as the result of this foreign demand coinciding with the full reopening of Dogo Onsen Honkan (道後温泉本館) in July 2024.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Ehime Prefecture, estimated settled ADR, finalized months only, N=204–213 per month)

Price Hierarchy by Municipality — Matsuyama at ¥10,100 on Top, Then Ozu/Imabari, Then Toyo/Nanyo

Next, we line up the levels by municipality. Comparing estimated settled ADR in September 2026 across municipalities with 4 or more covered properties, Matsuyama City stands out at ¥10,100 (N=90, +3.1% YoY), followed by Ozu City at ¥7,400 (N=8) and Imabari City at ¥6,900 (N=32, −0.2%). Uwajima City ¥6,200 (N=8), Yawatahama City ¥6,300 (N=5), Niihama City ¥6,000 (N=10), Seiyo City ¥6,000 (N=4), Saijo City ¥5,800 (N=20, +7.5%), Iyo City ¥5,600 (N=4), Shikokuchuo City ¥5,400 (N=12, +6.4%) and Ainan Town ¥5,200 (N=4) all fall within the ¥5,000–6,300 band. Toon City is high at ¥15,900, but a high-priced property among only 4 covered properties lifts the level, so it is treated as a reference value.

This three-tier structure also reflects differences in hotel-type mix. In Matsuyama City, business hotels stand at ¥7,600 (N=36, +11.2%), city hotels at ¥9,300 (N=14, +1.0%), and ryokan at ¥18,900 (N=36, +7.8%), with Dogo’s ryokan cluster lifting the citywide median. In Imabari City, business hotels are at ¥6,200 (N=12) and ryokan at ¥9,200 (N=17, +12.8%); while properties along the Shimanami Kaido are growing, the business segment is below last year’s level, leaving room for price growth. Toyo (Niihama, Saijo, Shikokuchuo) relies mainly on business-trip demand from manufacturing, and Saijo and Shikokuchuo are solid at +6–8% YoY. The Dogo / Matsuyama / Shimanami hierarchy was also confirmed in our July analysis, and this article layers 2026 supply and site conditions on top of it.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (September 2026, estimated settled ADR, municipalities with 4+ properties covered on a settled-rate basis)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR is a tax-exclusive equivalent estimate; listed price is the per-room rate for 2 guests per room, tax included)

Estimated Occupancy and Booking Curves by Type — Ryokan at 90%, Business Hotels Just Under 80%

After price comes inventory sell-through. Estimated OCC (occupancy rate, based on OTA listed inventory, estimated) for September 2026 was 82.8% prefecture-wide (141 properties / 7,986 rooms). By type, ryokan reached 91.3% (36 properties / 993 rooms), city hotels 85.6% (10 properties / 1,304 rooms), and business hotels 79.7% (50 properties / 5,232 rooms)—an 11.6pt gap between ryokan and business hotels. In August, the overall figure was 85.0% (149 properties / 8,072 rooms), with ryokan at 93.6% and business hotels at 82.0%, so for two consecutive months ryokan filled up first. On a daily basis, occupancy concentrated in the first half of the five-day holiday: 98.3% on Saturday, September 19, and 100% on Sunday, September 20 and Monday, September 21 (public holiday), before falling back to 71.1% on the 23rd after the holiday.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Ehime Prefecture, September 2026, daily estimated OCC; property counts by type noted in the text)

The shape of the booking curve also differs greatly by stay date. For the night of September 20 (183 properties / 8,724 rooms), estimated occupancy was 83.4% at LT45, 93.7% at LT30 and 99.9% at LT21—essentially sold out three weeks before the stay date. The weekday night of September 9 started at 53.5% at LT45, reached 73.0% at LT14 and 89.4% at LT1. The night of October 10, the first day of a three-day weekend, started at 81.6% at LT45 and reached 93.5% at LT14—not as high as Silver Week, but starting more than 20pt above a weekday. The fact that holiday demand forms 45 or more days before the stay date represents an opportunity for revenue management in the prefecture to capture rate through early pricing.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Ehime Prefecture, all types, LT45–LT1, estimated occupancy = based on OTA listed inventory)

Positioning by Est. Settled ADR × Early Sell-Out — The ¥15,000–25,000 Band Is the Thinnest

This is the core of the article. For the night of September 20, in an inventory ranking limited to properties whose OTA allocation is at least 30% of total rooms, all 85 qualifying properties—out of 211 with listed inventory data—sold out on that date, and 35 of them had sold out 45 or more days before the stay date (by type: 11 business hotels, 9 ryokan, 6 guesthouses, 3 minshuku, 2 city hotels and others). For the 66 of these 85 properties in verified hotel types for which estimated settled ADR can be calculated, the chart below plots September 2026 estimated settled ADR on the horizontal axis, early sell-out LT (the lead time at which available rooms first reached zero; 45 or more is shown as 45) on the vertical axis, and room count as bubble size. Property names are not shown; read it as an aggregate by area × type.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Ehime Prefecture, night of September 20, 2026, N=66 properties, limited to properties whose OTA allocation is at least 30% of total rooms)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (N=66 properties; early sell-out LT = the lead time at which available rooms first reached 0)

The table shows that as the price band rises, the number of properties falls and the share of early sell-outs rises. Below ¥6,000 there are 26 properties with 1,670 rooms, of which 8 (31%) sold out 45+ days ahead; the ¥6,000–8,000 band has 18 properties with 1,735 rooms and only 6 (33%). By contrast, the ¥15,000–25,000 band has just 6 properties with 321 rooms, and 4 of them (67%) sold out 45+ days ahead. No sell-outs were observed at ¥25,000 and above. In other words, in Ehime, “properties above ¥15,000” are scarce in both property count and room count—and they fill up the fastest. Median rates by type are ¥6,100 for business hotels (47 properties), ¥9,400 for city hotels (7) and ¥11,400 for ryokan (11), with ryokan standing out at a median early sell-out LT of 45+ days.

Matsuyama’s 684 Rooms in 2026 — Net New Supply 439 Rooms at 2 Hotels; 1 km Stock +20.5% in 9 Years

Turning to supply: three hotels with 30 or more rooms and a total of 684 rooms opened in Matsuyama City in 2026, and within the scope tracked by MetroEngines Research, all 2026 openings in Ehime are concentrated in these three. However, treating all three as “new supply” overstates the net increase. Confirming with each company’s announcements: APA Hotel Matsuyama-shi Ekimae (アパホテル〈松山市駅前〉, 213 rooms, opened July 28) is the first newly built APA Hotel in Shikoku, an 11-story new building a 3-minute walk from Iyotetsu’s Matsuyama-shi Station. Hotel Route-Inn Matsuyama Kita (ホテルルートイン松山北, 226 rooms, opened July 13) is a new 8-story building in Higashinagato, Matsuyama, about a 7-minute drive from JR Iyo-Wake Station, outside the city center. Hiyori Hotel Matsuyama (日和ホテル松山, 245 rooms, opened April 16) followed the closure at the end of March 2026 of the Matsuyama Tokyu REI Hotel (3-3-1 Ichibancho), which had operated for 34 years since 1991; Sunfrontier Hotel Management took over the same building and is renovating it floor by floor while operating, with the room count unchanged at 245. Net new supply is therefore 439 rooms at 2 hotels, plus 1 rebrand of 245 rooms.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from company press releases and MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR is for September 2026, estimated from each property’s lowest plan level × hotel-type factor)

The three hotels have made a strong start. September estimated settled ADR was ¥8,900 for APA Hotel Matsuyama-shi Ekimae and ¥10,800 for Hotel Route-Inn Matsuyama Kita, both above the Matsuyama business hotel median of ¥7,600. Hiyori Hotel Matsuyama rose from ¥8,500 in its opening month to ¥11,000 in September, exceeding the city hotel median of ¥9,300. That rates did not fall even as 684 rooms entered the market—in a month when Matsuyama’s business hotel ADR grew by double digits at +11.2% YoY—indicates that current demand is absorbing the added supply.

We check this absorptive capacity against the trend in room stock. Room stock within a 1 km radius of Matsuyama-shi Station grew +20.5% from 4,086 rooms at 29 properties in 2017 to 4,924 rooms at 34 properties in 2026, with two peaks: 2020–2022 (Comfort Hotel Matsuyama, REF Matsuyama City Station, Hotel Route-Inn Matsuyama Chuo) and 2026 (APA Hotel Matsuyama-shi Ekimae). As of October 2026, 34 properties with 4,904 rooms are operating, of which business hotels account for 20 properties / 2,820 rooms and city hotels for 9 properties / 1,956 rooms; large properties with 201+ rooms (10 properties, 2,519 rooms) account for more than half. By opening decade, the 2000s account for 9 properties / 1,369 rooms and the 2020s for 9 properties / 1,256 rooms, while of the 11 properties / 1,268 rooms from the 1970s–80s, only 7 / 994 rooms are still operating. Expanding to a 2 km radius, 45 properties / 5,702 rooms are operating, +16.3% versus 2017 (2 properties / 70 rooms with unconfirmed opening years are excluded from the annual trend).

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (as of October 2026) (1 km radius of Matsuyama-shi Station, 10+ rooms, properties with confirmed opening year)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research; MLIT Real Estate Information Library (zoning). Circle size = rooms; blue = business hotel, navy = city hotel, gray = other; thick outline = opened in 2026. Light blue areas = Commercial Zone and Neighborhood Commercial Zone

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (as of October 2026, operating properties)

The next wave of supply is not yet visible. On a building-confirmation-application basis in MLIT’s Building Activity Statistics Survey, there are zero planned hotels in Ehime Prefecture (based on confirmation applications as of the survey date; the count is expected to rise as new applications are filed). In e-Stat’s Building Construction Starts Statistics, lodging-use buildings peaked most recently at 17 buildings / 34,159㎡ in 2019, and stood at only 5 buildings / 13,073㎡ in 2024. The three 2026 hotels are the result of construction starts in 2021–2023 (12–14 buildings each year), and given the low number of starts in 2024, supply in Matsuyama is likely to pause in 2027–2028. Elevated construction costs raise the profitability hurdle for new builds, but they are also an upside factor that increases the scarcity value of existing stock.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from e-Stat Building Construction Starts Statistics (Statistics ID 0003114490, Ehime Prefecture, lodging-use buildings)

The Upper Tier in Dogo and Shimanami (Imabari) — Ryokan Rates +7.8% / +12.8%, Stock Flat

We look at the upper tier by area. Room stock within a 1 km radius of Dogo Onsen consists of 33 operating properties with 1,572 rooms, of which ryokan account for 24 properties / 1,233 rooms, or about 80%. The annual trend has been flat at 1,873 rooms since 2022, with 13 mid-sized properties of 51–100 rooms (990 rooms) forming the core. Matsuyama City’s ryokan ADR is ¥18,900 (N=36, +7.8%), and together with estimated OCC of 91.3% in September 2026 and 93.6% in August, Dogo is in a phase where “supply is not increasing and both rate and occupancy are rising at the same time.” Of the 33 operating properties, 11 opened in the 1970s or earlier, leaving significant room to move into the ¥15,000–25,000 band through renovation investment.

Imabari presents a different picture. Operating rooms within a 1 km radius of Imabari Station total 1,133 at 12 properties; the annual trend rose +34% from 868 rooms in 2017 to 1,163 rooms in 2026, with two hotels—JR Clement Inn Imabari (JRクレメントイン今治, 121 rooms, 2021) and Shimanami Prime Hotel Imabari (しまなみプライムホテル今治, 152 rooms, 2024)—boosting supply in front of the station. Imabari City’s business hotel ADR is ¥6,200 (N=12), below last year’s level, suggesting the station area is in a phase of digesting added supply. Ryokan, on the other hand, grew by double digits to ¥9,200 (N=17, +12.8%), with cycling demand on the Shimanami Kaido and small inns on the islands driving rates up. If there is an investment opportunity in Imabari, it lies in the small, high-priced segment on the Shimanami side rather than limited-service hotels in front of the station (supply trends and land price movements within 2 km of the station are analyzed in detail in Imabari Station 2 km Area: Rooms Rose from 929 to 1,524 in 9 Years — Falling Land Prices, Imabari City ADR ¥7,233).

Zoning, Flood Risk and Land Prices in Central Matsuyama — Commercial Zones at 400–600%, Ishite River Flood Depth 0.5–3 m

We check site conditions using MLIT’s Real Estate Information Library. Mapping the 34 operating properties within 1 km of Matsuyama-shi Station to zoning, 30 properties / 4,615 rooms are in Commercial Zones (floor area ratio 400–600%, building coverage ratio 80%) and 4 properties / 289 rooms are in Neighborhood Commercial Zones (300%), with none in residential zones. The site of Hotel Route-Inn Matsuyama Kita (Higashinagato) is in a Category 2 Residential Zone (floor area ratio 200%), a suburban location distinct from the city center. Overlaying the flood inundation risk area (maximum assumed scale, Ishite River), 31 of the 34 properties (4,517 rooms) fall within areas with an expected inundation depth of 0.5 to under 3.0 m, and only 3 properties (387 rooms) on the north side of Matsuyama Castle are outside the area. Because most of the city center lies within an area where first-floor flooding is assumed, placing electrical equipment on upper floors and planning basement use should be built into the design stage for both new builds and renovations. The points around Dogo Onsen Station are in a Commercial Zone, and within the data obtained, no flood inundation risk area designation was confirmed.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MLIT Real Estate Information Library (zoning, flood inundation risk areas) and MetroEngines Research

Land prices continue to rise gradually. In the 2026 Official Land Price Publication (as of January 1), 2-4-13 Okaido was ¥870,000/㎡ (+1.2% YoY), 4-2-2 Chifunemachi ¥382,000/㎡ (+1.6%), 4-11-12 Sanbancho ¥375,000/㎡ (+2.5%), and Dogo-Yunomachi Ko 1570 ¥363,000/㎡ (+4.6%), with Dogo outpacing the city center. In the 2025 Prefectural Land Price Survey (as of July 1), 4-1-1 Ichibancho was ¥399,000/㎡ (+2.6%) and 3-5-17 Minatomachi ¥432,000/㎡ (flat), so the area around Matsuyama-shi Station is stable in the ¥300,000–430,000/㎡ range. For hotel sites, this is a relatively accessible level among regional core cities, and the estimate below assumes ¥380,000/㎡.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MLIT Real Estate Information Library (Official Land Price Publication 2026)

Price Bands with Development Potential — New Upper-Midscale Breaks Even at ¥30,000 Settled ADR; Takeover & Renovation Is the Realistic Path

To summarize so far, the band in Ehime where supply is thin and demand fills first is the ¥15,000–25,000 estimated settled ADR band, and locations are limited to Dogo and central Matsuyama. We use a simplified estimate to test whether this band can be filled with new construction. Construction cost is set in the first stage at ¥2.405 million per tsubo for a steel-frame (S) hotel (an assumed 2025-level value), and in the second stage, cost increases during construction (Turner & Townsend forecast: +5.3% in 2026, +5.0% in 2027) are compounded up to the midpoint between a 2027 construction start and a 2028 opening. GOP margins are set at 50% for limited-service and 35% for upper-midscale, more conservative than the 38.9% GOP actual for the 91 operating properties disclosed by Invincible Investment Corporation (インヴィンシブル投資法人) (fiscal period ended December 2024).

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Turner & Townsend construction cost forecasts, Invincible Investment Corporation financial results presentation, and MetroEngines Research. This is a simplified estimate; actual investment decisions require a detailed feasibility study

The result is clear. An 80-room limited-service hotel reaches a GOP yield of 5.9% (5.4% after inflation) at ¥8,500 and 82% occupancy—slightly above Matsuyama’s business hotel median—but a 60-room upper-midscale hotel yields only 4.0% even at ¥20,000, the center of the gap band, and reaching 6% requires a settled ADR of ¥30,000. With zero observed sell-outs above ¥25,000 in Ehime, targeting this band with a new build is premature. Acquiring an existing building and raising rates from the low ¥10,000s through renovation while operating—as Hiyori Hotel Matsuyama did by taking over the Matsuyama Tokyu REI Hotel—allows an approach to the gap band while avoiding construction costs. The same logic applies to Dogo’s ryokan that opened in the 1970s or earlier: renovations of a few million yen per room, such as adding in-room open-air baths or converting to Japanese-Western style rooms, could move them into the ¥15,000+ band. For how far renovation can close the rate gap in a rebrand and how many years payback takes, see our case study of the same operator, Hiyori Hotel Flex Hakata’s 157-Room Rebrand — Former ADR ¥11,000 at 77% of Hakata Ward, the Rate Gap Renovation Closes and 4.5-Year Payback.

We also check the sensitivity to assumptions. Holding the conditions of the 60-room upper-midscale case constant (total investment ¥2.88 bn, GOP margin 35%), the table below shows GOP yield when settled ADR and annual occupancy vary. At ¥25,000, even raising annual occupancy to 85% yields only 5.7%; 6% is reached only with combinations of a settled ADR of ¥30,000 and annual occupancy of 75% or more, or ¥35,000 and 65% or more. The conclusion that new builds do not pencil out at the center of the gap band holds even with optimistic occupancy assumptions.

HotelBank Editorial Team estimate. GOP yield = ADR × occupancy × 365 days × 60 rooms × GOP margin 35% ÷ total investment ¥2.88 bn (room revenue only, pre-inflation). With the post-inflation total investment of ¥3.15 bn, each cell is about 10% lower (6.0% → 5.5%). Bold indicates 6% or higher

Conclusion — Ehime’s Investment Opportunity Lies in “Upgrading What Exists”

For Ehime, 2026 was a year in which, with tailwinds from growing foreign demand and the full reopening of Dogo Onsen Honkan, Matsuyama City’s estimated settled ADR rose to ¥10,100 (+3.1%) and ryokan to ¥18,900 (+7.8%), and 684 rooms of new openings were absorbed without lowering rates. Net new supply was 439 rooms, stock within 1 km grew +20.5% over 9 years, and no next wave of supply is visible on a confirmation-application basis. The price hierarchy has three tiers—Matsuyama, Ozu/Imabari, and the rest—and by type, ryokan fill first at 90% occupancy, while the ¥15,000–25,000 estimated settled ADR band remains thin at 6 properties and 321 rooms, with 4 selling out 45+ days in advance. For operators, early, staged pricing that leverages the fact that holiday demand forms 45+ days ahead—and for investors, moving into the upper tier through the takeover and renovation of existing buildings rather than new construction—are the highest-conviction opportunities in Ehime.