On August 4, 2026, The Ascott Japan announced that Citadines North Shinjuku Tokyo (シタディーンノース新宿東京) in Hyakunincho, Shinjuku Ward, will open on October 28, 2026. The property has 179 units in total, 106 hotel rooms and 73 serviced residences, about a 3-minute walk from Okubo Station and a 7-minute walk from Shin-Okubo Station. According to a news release issued on June 9, 2025 by parent company CapitaLand Investment (CLI), its private fund CLARA II, together with co-investors, acquired a 22-storey mixed-use building in Shinjuku for more than ¥30 billion and planned to refurbish the hotel and residential floors into 179 serviced-residence units. In the hotel master database tracked by MetroEngines Research, the 106-room Hundred Stay Tokyo Shinjuku (ハンドレッドステイ東京新宿), which opened at the same address in July 2010, ceased operations on August 31, 2025. This opening is therefore a conversion of an existing building, not a new build. This article reads the deal along two axes, “an overseas fund acquiring an existing building” and “mixed hotel and long-stay floors”, and tests three things: the 10-year supply trend within a 1km radius of Okubo Station, the seasonal amplitude of the estimated settled ADR in Shinjuku Ward, and, through a simulation, how much the mixed floor plan smooths monthly revenue.

Opening Overview and Building History: 106 Rooms in a 1992 Mixed-Use Tower, Hosted Since 2010, Reconfigured into 179 Units

First, the facts from primary sources. According to Ascott Japan’s release (PR TIMES, August 4, 2026), Citadines North Shinjuku Tokyo is located at 2-27-7 Hyakunincho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, about a 3-minute walk from JR Okubo Station and a 7-minute walk from Shin-Okubo Station. Its units are described as “106 hotel rooms and 73 serviced residences: 179 units in total”. Hotel rooms range from 25m² studios to two-bedroom units for 3–6 guests, and serviced residences are 48–152m² studios, one-bedrooms and two-bedrooms. Facilities include a 24-hour reception, gym, laundry and café, and most residences have a kitchen. The release describes the property as the “fourth in Japan” under the Citadines brand, following Shinjuku, Yokohama Harbourfront and Namba Osaka. Bookings opened on the official website on August 4, 2026, with residence booking details to follow later.

Next, the building’s history. In the MetroEngines Research hotel master, Hundred Stay Tokyo Shinjuku (106 rooms), opened on July 20, 2010, is registered at the same 2-27-7 Hyakunincho address, with a closure date of August 31, 2025. According to an office listing site, the building is the Hundred Circus East Tower (ハンドレッドサーカスイーストタワー), a 22-storey rental office building completed in 1992, which in 2008 underwent a major renovation from a city hotel into a mixed-use complex of apartments, lodging, shops and offices (BELCA Award, Best Reform category). CLI’s news release dated June 9, 2025 (published on the Singapore Exchange) does not name the building, but describes “a 22-storey” asset in Shinjuku, “a mixed-use asset with hotel and residential components plus ancillary office and retail space”, a plan to “refurbish the hotel and residential components into 179 serviced residence units”, and a “phased opening from the second half of 2026”. Location, height, use mix and unit count are all consistent with Ascott’s opening release. The working name at acquisition was “Citadines Shinjuku Tower Tokyo”, later changed to “Citadines North Shinjuku Tokyo” for the opening.

In other words, this is a conversion that restores the former hotel’s 106 rooms as 106 hotel rooms, switches the former residential floors into 73 serviced residences, and puts the whole building under a single operating brand. In its Hundred Stay days the property had a high review score of 4.42 (13,128 reviews), and its estimated settled ADR over the final 12 months before closure (September 2024 to August 2025) ranged from ¥38,100 to ¥51,900 per month. Given that the Shinjuku Ward median over the same period was ¥12,500–¥17,800, the old property was already selling at roughly three times the rate of a typical property in the ward. Whether the converted property can inherit this tier is the starting point for its revenue.

Deal Structure: CLARA II’s “More Than ¥30 Billion” Covers the Whole Building and Cannot Be Broken Down into a Per-Room Price

The acquisition price of “more than ¥30 billion” is confirmed not by press reports but by CLI’s own news release. According to the release, CLARA II received additional commitments from new and existing institutional investors, and this asset is the fund’s third and its second in Japan. CLI holds about 20% of the fund, and including this commitment its funds under management (FUM) increase by about S$470 million. The company says its on-the-ground team’s knowledge secured an off-market opportunity at an attractive entry price, and emphasises a “flex-hybrid” model in which long-stay guests provide income stability while short-stay guests capture upside.

Note that the ¥30 billion-plus is not the price of “106 hotel rooms + 73 residences”. As CLI’s release states explicitly, the acquisition includes ancillary office and retail floors. Dividing ¥30 billion by 179 units gives about ¥170 million per unit, but that is merely a reference figure, the price of the entire building including non-lodging floors divided by the unit count, not a price for the lodging floors. Refurbishment costs have not been disclosed either. This article therefore does not present a gross yield on the acquisition price or a per-room price, and instead reads the meaning of the mixed floors along an axis that public data can verify: the amplitude of monthly revenue. A method for comparing office and lodging floors on the same revenue-per-tsubo yardstick is shown for Yokohama, Nagoya, Sendai and Osaka in our analysis of the break-even ADR for office-to-hotel conversion.

Checked against our J-REIT ownership master (7 hotel-focused REITs, 300 domestic properties), none of the three properties involved (the former Hundred Stay, Citadines Shinjuku Tokyo and Citadines Central Shinjuku Tokyo) is registered as owned by a listed hotel REIT. A structure in which an overseas private fund owns the asset and an affiliated operator runs it differs in the nature of its capital from a typical domestic REIT acquisition (median ¥3.06 billion per deal). We return to this point in the section on overseas fund flows below.

Location: Commercial Zone with 600% FAR; Land Prices on the Shin-Okubo Side Up 29% in Two Years

In the zoning data of the MLIT Real Estate Information Library, the site is in a commercial zone with a 600% floor area ratio and 80% building coverage ratio. Official land prices around Okubo Station keep rising. The nearest benchmark site, “Shinjuku 5-40” (Kita-Shinjuku 1-chome, 270m from Okubo Station, neighbourhood commercial zone), stood at ¥1.61 million/m² as of January 1, 2026, up 15.0% year on year, after +19.7% in 2025. “Shinjuku 5-14” (Hyakunincho 1-chome, commercial zone), 160m from Shin-Okubo Station, is ¥3.27 million/m², up 19.3%, and has risen about 29% in two years from ¥2.53 million in 2024. On the Nishi-Shinjuku side, “Shinjuku 5-21” (Kita-Shinjuku 1-chome) is also ¥2.37 million/m², up 19.7%. We confirmed in our earlier piece on the investment case for the 207-room Noted Collection Shinjuku that land prices in central Kabukicho rose 5.7–20.0% in 2026; the Okubo side is moving at the same pace.

Station demand is worth checking too. In the National Land Numerical Information station ridership data (FY2022), Okubo Station handles 44,558 passengers/day, Shin-Okubo Station 87,104 and Seibu-Shinjuku Station 135,139. Compared with FY2019, Okubo is down about 21% from 56,700 and Shin-Okubo about 15% from 102,876, as FY2022 was still a post-COVID recovery year. That commercial land prices near Shin-Okubo rose 29% in two years, ahead of the recovery in ridership, can be read as investors pricing in the location’s future potential.

10-Year Supply Trend within 1km: From 62 Properties / 5,817 Rooms to 104 / 8,534, Flat Since 2020

Aggregating year-end room supply within a 1km radius of the Okubo site from the MetroEngines Research hotel master, supply grew from 42 properties / 3,696 rooms in 2012 to 62 / 5,817 in 2017, 86 / 7,321 in 2019 and 90 / 8,227 in 2020. Over the nine years from 2017 to 2026, room count rose 46.7%. Since 2020, however, it has stayed flat in the 8,200–8,600 range, and 2026 shows 104 properties / 8,534 rooms, slightly down from 8,607 rooms in 2024. Small new properties keep being added, but rooms that temporarily drop out, such as the former Hundred Stay’s 106, mean net growth has stalled.

A 1km radius takes in Kabukicho’s large hotels. The +1,642 rooms in 2015 came mainly from a high-rise hotel opening in Kabukicho, the 1,900+ rooms added in 2019–2020 from several openings in Higashi-Shinjuku and Kabukicho, and the +1,056 rooms in 2023 include the two hotels in Tokyu Kabukicho Tower (635 rooms combined). All of these were on the Kabukicho side; supply on the Okubo side has been limited to an accumulation of small properties. The 19 planned projects in Tokyo (50+ rooms) in MLIT’s Building Construction Dynamics Survey included no project in Shinjuku Ward as of the survey date. *This is based on building confirmation applications as of the survey date, and the count is expected to grow as further applications are filed. The 179 units equal about 2.1% of existing supply within 1km, not enough to move the market on the supply side.

Price-Tier Distribution: All 7 Properties at ¥25,000+ Are on the Kabukicho / Nishi-Shinjuku Side; the Okubo Side’s Upper Tier Is Empty

Of the 104 properties within 1km, 30 properties with 6,375 rooms have 12 months of estimated settled ADR (October 2025 to September 2026) (excluding leisure hotels; including capsules and hostels). Grouped by 12-month median, 3 properties / 1,206 rooms are at ¥40,000 or more, 4 / 1,270 at ¥25,000–40,000, 6 / 1,261 at ¥15,000–25,000, 8 / 1,670 at ¥10,000–15,000, and 9 / 968 below ¥10,000. By rooms, 41% are below ¥15,000, centred on limited-service hotels and capsules.

Splitting this distribution geographically makes the deal’s positioning clear. All 7 properties at ¥25,000 or more are on the Kabukicho / Nishi-Shinjuku side south of Shokuan-dori, while the highest of the 10 calculable properties (717 rooms) on the Okubo / Shin-Okubo side (north of Shokuan-dori) is only about ¥17,300. The former Hundred Stay’s median estimated settled ADR over its final 12 months was about ¥44,100, and no property in that tier currently exists on the Okubo side. In other words, if Citadines North Shinjuku Tokyo launches in the ¥25,000+ tier, it will be the only upper-midscale-or-above property on the Okubo side. On the Kabukicho side, the mid-size properties (80–250 rooms) in the same tier (¥25,000–50,000) are two, with 142 and 96 rooms; 106 rooms falls between them.

Shinjuku Ward ADR and Occupancy: Rates Swing 1.66x a Year, Occupancy Holds High at 89–92% in June–September

To gauge what the mixed floors mean, we first need to know how much the nightly-sale floors swing. Shinjuku Ward’s estimated settled ADR (N=84–101 properties, monthly median) over the 12 months from October 2025 to September 2026 peaked at ¥20,700 in April 2026 and bottomed at ¥12,400 in August 2026, a ratio of 1.66x. Year on year, all eight months from October 2025 to May 2026 were positive, ranging from +5.9% (February) to +23.8% (January), while June 2026 was −5.8%, July −7.7% and August −8.3%, three consecutive months below the prior year, before September recovered to roughly flat at +1.1%. Tokyo as a whole follows the same shape: ¥11,800 (−9.2%) in August 2026 and ¥13,700 (+1.9%) in September. Summer rates softened year on year, while April 2026 was up 16.3% at ¥20,700, so rates actually grew in the spring peak season.

Occupancy, on the other hand, is high. Shinjuku Ward’s estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory, 61–64 properties, 7,900–8,200 rooms) was 91.9% in June 2026, 92.4% in July, 89.0% in August and 90.1% in September, holding around 90% even in the summer when rates were below the prior year. This is an estimate based on how OTA-listed inventory is absorbed and differs from properties’ actual overall occupancy, but directionally it shows a market where “rooms fill up but rates swing”. Put differently, the monthly revenue of hotel floors in Shinjuku Ward is determined almost entirely by rate seasonality, and August revenue is around 60% of April’s.

The Revenue Profile of Mixed Floors: A Simulation in Which 73 Fixed-Rent Units Narrow the Peak-to-Trough Ratio from 1.61x to 1.41x

What follows is a simulation. Hotel floors are sold nightly, so revenue moves month by month as “rooms × occupancy × daily rate × days”. Residence floors are mainly on fixed monthly contracts, so as long as occupancy holds, monthly revenue does not move with the seasons. We test, using assumptions based on public data, how much shallower the monthly revenue troughs become when the two are placed in the same building.

The assumptions are as follows. Hotel floors are set at an annual average ADR of ¥30,000 (the middle of the ¥25,000–40,000 tier within 1km, and more conservative than the old property’s results), with monthly variation following the shape of Shinjuku Ward’s estimated settled ADR from October 2025 to September 2026 (April at 1.29x the average, August at 0.77x). Occupancy is fixed at 85%, below Shinjuku Ward’s estimated OCC (89–92%). Residence floors are set at ¥500,000 per unit per month (an assumed value between the roughly ¥545,000 for 30 nights at a Tokyo business hotel and about ¥1,284,000 at a city hotel shown in our earlier analysis of extended-stay hotel business models, adjusted for 48m²+ units with kitchens), with occupancy fixed at 85%. These are assumptions for this article’s simulation, not rates published by the operator.

Reading the results: if all 179 units are sold nightly, the peak-to-trough monthly ratio is 1.61x and the trough month’s revenue is 62% of the peak month’s. With 106 rooms + 73 units on mixed floors, the ratio narrows to 1.41x and even the trough month keeps 71% of the peak. Total annual revenue is larger for Option A at ¥1.67 billion than for Option B at ¥1.36 billion, the configuration that captures all nightly sales. In other words, the mixed floors are a configuration not for “maximising revenue” but for “making the troughs shallower and working capital and staffing plans easier to forecast”, consistent with CLI’s description in its release of “long-stay guests providing income stability while short-stay guests capture upside”. Fixed monthly-rent floors account for 27% of annual revenue, meaning income close in character to fixed rent makes up more than a quarter of the total.

We also check sensitivity. In Option B, annual revenue falls to ¥1.26 billion if hotel ADR drops 10%, to ¥1.30 billion if hotel OCC drops 5pt, and to ¥1.32 billion if residence rent drops 10%; even if all three occur at once, it stays at ¥1.17 billion (−13.8% versus base). Comparing a 10% fall in hotel-floor ADR with a 10% fall in residence rent, the revenue impact is smaller on the residence side, suggesting a structure in which the long-stay floors are also resilient to downside in rates.

One Operator, Two Buildings in the Same Ward: Shared Operations Across 266 Hotel Rooms + 73 Residences

After the opening, Ascott will operate two Citadines in Shinjuku Ward: Citadines Shinjuku Tokyo (シタディーン新宿東京, 160 rooms, opened 2009, on the Shinjuku Gyoen side) and Citadines North Shinjuku Tokyo (179 units). Ascott Japan’s opening release likewise lists three existing Citadines in Japan, Citadines Shinjuku Tokyo, Harbour Front Yokohama and Namba Osaka, and calls this property the fourth. Citadines Central Shinjuku Tokyo (シタディーンセントラル新宿東京, 206 rooms, opened 2008) in Higashi-Shinjuku was sold by CapitaLand Ascott Trust to a Mizuho Leasing affiliate for ¥25 billion in October 2025 and was then acquired by SC Capital Partners in July 2026, so it is not counted for shared operations. The two buildings have 266 hotel rooms combined, plus 73 residences. They are about 2.0km apart, close enough to share cleaning, linen and maintenance contractors, front-desk and sales staff, and a corporate client base. Citadines Shinjuku Tokyo’s estimated settled ADR over the latest 12 months (October 2025 to September 2026) ranged from ¥24,400 to ¥45,000 per month, above the Shinjuku Ward median (¥12,400–¥20,700). If the new building enters the ¥25,000+ tier, both buildings will sit above the ward’s typical level and can split guest segments between them (short-stay leisure and business trips, mid-term training and project stays, and long-term relocations). The differences in contract type, where monthly leases and nightly sales sit side by side under the same “long-stay” label, are organised into three models in our piece on long-stay hotel brands and contract types.

Long-stay supply is also expanding across Tokyo. Our earlier cross-brand supply map of long-stay hotels in Japan grouped 1,521 properties nationwide into five price tiers, but properties holding 70 or more 48m²+ units with kitchens are limited. In its 2025 report, JLL notes that serviced apartments’ margins are supported by “higher room rates than business hotels, longer average stays and less cleaning and linen changing”, and that listed and private REITs and overseas funds have begun investing in them. This deal is a typical example, and by keeping hotel floors in the same building it avoids giving up the upside from short-stay demand.

Residents and Workers Nearby: 144,000 Live within 1.5km, 103,000 Work within 1km

Who will stay, and who will lease? Aggregating MLIT’s National Land Numerical Information (projected population by 250m mesh) within a 1.5km radius of the site, the resident population was 141,730 in 2020, an estimated 144,496 in 2025 and an estimated 144,209 in 2040, +1.7% versus 2020 and essentially flat. In 2025, the working-age share (15–64) is 73.0% and the 65+ share 19.1%, younger than Tokyo overall. In the Economic Census (2021) by MIC and METI, the 1km radius has 5,969 establishments and 102,545 employees, with office-type employees making up 38.0%. This is a smaller business cluster than the 261,000 employees within 1km of central Kabukicho (from an earlier aggregation), but with the Nishi-Shinjuku skyscraper office district within walking distance, the location can capture mid-term stays by training and project teams and temporary housing for relocating staff. Note that this is census-based resident population, not visitor or transit population.

Where This Sits in Overseas Fund Flows: The Share Fell from 30% to 7%, but Small and Mid-Size Deals Continue

The role of overseas investors in Japanese hotel investment changed between 2025 and 2026. As outlined in our earlier census of foreign hotel investment in Japan for 2026, JLL data show overseas investors’ share of Japan’s overall real estate investment market hit a record 39% in 2025, while their share in the hotel sector alone fell from 30% in 2024 to 7% in 2025. Large acquisitions that move quarterly totals have shifted to domestic REITs, and overseas players have turned to selling the large central-Tokyo assets they bought around 2023. A lower share does not mean an exit, however. The same review confirmed that Singapore-based funds keep picking up small and mid-size deals of several billion to ¥30 billion each.

This deal sits squarely in that band. CLI is a listed real asset manager headquartered in Singapore, and the asset was acquired by its value-add lodging fund CLARA II together with co-investors. In its release, CLI cites lyf in Shibuya (a conversion of an existing building) exceeding 70% occupancy within three months of opening, and the sale of lyf Ginza and Somerset Shinagawa from its first fund at prices above target returns, showing it is repeating a cycle of “acquire, refurbish/convert, add value through operations, sell” in Japan. As with the 240-room Avani Kyoto conversion of the former Kyoto Shimbun building and the rebranding of an existing property in Kabukicho, against rising construction costs (¥2.405 million per tsubo for steel-frame buildings in 2025, per MLIT’s Building Construction Starts Statistics) and a low new-supply rate (about 1.5% of existing stock, per JLL), buying and transforming existing buildings rather than building new has become the mainstream strategy for overseas players. The three layers of notification requirements that overlap when an overseas fund acquires Japanese hotel real estate are summarised in our piece on Japan’s 2026 hotel acquisition rules for foreign investors.

From an exit perspective, a size of more than ¥30 billion is near the upper end of the band in which domestic REIT buyers exist, given the distribution shown in our earlier analysis: of the 300 domestic properties held by hotel-focused J-REITs, 41 (13.7%) were acquired for ¥10 billion or more. Being a mixed-use asset with office and retail floors as well as lodging floors makes it harder for hotel-focused REITs to buy at exit, but it could be a target for diversified REITs and private funds.

Investment Implications and Risks: A Conversion Designed to “Capture an Empty Tier”, with Three Points to Verify

From an investor’s perspective, the analysis boils down to three points. First, the gap in location and price tier. The Okubo side has no property at ¥25,000 or more, and the mid-¥40,000s tier the former Hundred Stay held remains vacant. At 106 rooms, the property is in the same band as the mid-size properties in the same tier on the Kabukicho side (96–142 rooms), and combined with its location attributes (commercial zone, 600% FAR, land prices up 15–19%, Shin-Okubo Station at 87,000 passengers/day), there is ample room to launch in the upper tier. Second, smoothing through mixed floors. In the simulation, fixed-rent floors account for 27% of revenue and the peak-to-trough ratio narrows from 1.61x to 1.41x. The design buys revenue predictability rather than maximum annual revenue. Third, it is an asset built with an overseas fund’s standard exit in mind. The pattern of selling after conversion and operational improvement has been demonstrated in the company’s past deals, and it is natural to see this asset as partway through that cycle.

Finally, three points investors looking at this deal should verify. (1) Whether the lodging floors launch in the ¥25,000+ tier (within 1km, the mid-size properties in that tier can be compared with the two on the Kabukicho side). (2) Where the residence floors’ monthly rent and occupancy land relative to this article’s assumptions (¥500,000, 85%). (3) How much office and retail rents contribute to total revenue, and whether a per-room price for the lodging floors alone is meaningful. Only once these three are known can one assess what level of entry price “more than ¥30 billion” represented for the lodging floors.

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