Room rates at Kusatsu Onsen (草津温泉) peak in December, while Hida-Takayama and Nikko peak in October and decline toward December. When we line up the settled-ADR estimates compiled by MetroEngines Research (2 guests per room, per room, tax-exclusive equivalent) for 16 hot-spring municipalities in Tochigi, Gunma, Gifu, Nagano and Niigata from October 2024 through March 2027, the onsen towns split into two types depending on whether their peak falls in autumn or winter — and the same type appeared in the same shape the previous year as well. With Kusatsu Town announcing 4.05 million visitors for FY2025, and Gunma Prefecture’s year-end/New Year survey showing Kusatsu Onsen overnight guests rising to 60,187 (108.0% of the prior year), this article classifies onsen towns by their “peak-month type,” examines what separates the types and whether inventory also sells out first in the months when prices rise, and then lays out a procedure for identifying your own property’s type and designing products for the trough months.

October–January in 16 Onsen Municipalities — Areas That Peak in Autumn vs. Areas That Peak in Winter

First, using finalized figures from October 2025 to January 2026, let us check in which month each municipality’s settled-ADR estimate was highest. Hida-Takayama (Takayama City) was highest in October at ¥20,900, then declined month by month to ¥18,500 in November and ¥17,300 in December — December came to only 0.83x October. Nikko City also eased gently from ¥21,300 in October to ¥20,000 in December. Kusatsu Town, by contrast, climbed steadily from ¥17,100 in October to ¥19,700 in November and ¥21,300 in December, reaching 1.24x October in December. Hakuba Village went from ¥10,900 in October to ¥21,500 in January — 1.97x — and Yuzawa Town hit 1.91x; in these areas the price level itself switches as winter arrives.

The key question is whether this shape is a one-year phenomenon. Running the same calculation for October 2024 to January 2025, Takayama, Nikko and Matsumoto again peaked in October, while Hakuba, Yuzawa, Myoko, Yamanouchi, Tsumagoi and Minakami again peaked in January (or December). Kusatsu peaked in December in both years. In other words, the position of the peak month is not year-to-year noise but a reproducible seasonal pattern specific to each area. On this basis, this article calls areas that peak in October–November the “autumn-peak type” and areas that peak in December–January the “winter-peak type,” and separately groups as the “flat type” areas whose peak month changes from year to year, as well as areas where December–January is the highest month but the uplift versus October stays within 10%.

Monthly median of settled-ADR estimates (2 guests per room, per room, tax-exclusive equivalent). “Peak month” is the highest of the four months from October to January. N is the range of properties included across those four months.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Autumn-Peak Type — Takayama, Nikko, Matsumoto, Gero and Ikaho Sell Out on Autumn Foliage, Then Decline Toward December

The five cities classified as autumn-peak are Takayama, Nikko and Matsumoto (peaking in October) and Gero and Shibukawa (Ikaho, peaking in November). What they share is that the main reason to visit is “historic streetscapes, shrines and temples, and autumn foliage,” and snow does not take center stage. Laying out Takayama’s 2025 from January to December, there is a summer peak of ¥18,600 in August and an autumn peak of ¥20,900 in October; January–March, bottoming at ¥14,500 in February, forms the annual trough, and December’s ¥17,300 sits on the way down from the autumn peak. Takayama is designated a heavy-snow area by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), yet snow is not a driver that lifts its rates.

The 2026 shape is the same. At ¥22,300 in October (N=136), ¥20,900 in November (N=139) and ¥19,200 in December (N=124), the step-down from October to December reappears even at listed levels as of the survey date. October is listed above the prior-year figure of ¥20,900, suggesting that strength in the foliage season continues. However, because the number of properties included begins to fall from December onward, it is too early to call how deep the trough will be.

Settled-ADR estimate for Takayama City (monthly median, 2 guests per room, tax-exclusive equivalent). October–December 2026 are estimates based on listed rates as of the survey date (October 12). N = 119–141 properties in 2025, 124–142 in 2026.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Nikko has the narrowest swing among the autumn-peak areas. In 2025 it stayed within the ¥19,000–¥21,000 range from ¥21,300 in October to ¥19,900 in January, with December ÷ October at just 0.94. The large ryokan of Kinugawa Onsen absorb group and family demand over the year-end/New Year holidays, a structure that keeps rate levels from collapsing even after the foliage ends. Gero and Shibukawa (Ikaho) peak in November — Gero at ¥21,700 and Shibukawa at ¥20,900. Both sit at elevations where peak foliage shifts into November, so their peak arrives in November rather than October. While we group them all as autumn-peak, note that whether the peak falls in October or November differs by area depending on foliage timing. The structure in which Gujo and Shirakawa-go in Gifu see their peaks shift to December or later is broken down by municipality in our analysis of Gifu room rates, where the autumn peak is October in Takayama and November in Gero.

Winter-Peak Type — Kusatsu, Hakuba, Yuzawa, Myoko and Shiga Kogen Shift to a Higher Rate Level from December

The winter-peak type comprises seven municipalities: Kusatsu and Yamanouchi (peaking in December) and Hakuba, Yuzawa, Myoko, Tsumagoi and Minakami (peaking in January). Their swings are on a completely different scale from the autumn-peak type. Hakuba roughly doubles from ¥10,900 in October to ¥21,500 in January, and Yuzawa rises 1.91x from ¥12,100 in October to ¥23,200 in January. These are areas where ski slopes and lodging are integrated, and it is natural to think that the product itself changes once the snow arrives.

Kusatsu has a somewhat different character within this type. In 2025 it rose every month — ¥17,100 in October, ¥19,700 in November, ¥21,300 in December — peaking in December, then settled a notch to ¥18,700 in January and held in the ¥17,000s at ¥17,600 in February and ¥17,500 in March. Rather than peaking in January–February like Hakuba or Yuzawa, it is highest in December and then holds a plateau through the rest of winter. This can be read as a two-layer structure taking visible form: year-round demand for strolling the onsen town centered on Yubatake and the public baths provides the base, and demand for snow viewing and Kusatsu Onsen Ski Resort layers on top from December. How Kusatsu’s rates held up even as 191 newly opened rooms came online in summer 2026 is examined from both the supply and inventory-absorption sides in our analysis of Kusatsu Onsen room rates, flat year on year in summer 2026.

Settled-ADR estimate for Kusatsu Town (monthly median, 2 guests per room, tax-exclusive equivalent). October–December 2026 are estimates based on listed rates as of the survey date. N = 77–96 properties in 2025, 79–94 in 2026.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

For 2026, Kusatsu is listed at ¥17,300 in October (N=89), ¥17,500 in November (N=89) and ¥18,400 in December (N=79), so the climb toward December appears even as of the survey date. December, however, is still below the finalized ¥21,300 of the prior December. In winter-peak areas, a large part of the peak-month price is formed by additional plans and price adjustments as the stay date approaches, so listed levels at the survey date should be read as the picture “before the build-up.” From January 2027 onward, the number of properties included thins to 63 and then 49, so this article does not place much weight on those figures.

Listing the swings of all 16 municipalities makes the difference between types clear at a glance. The chart below plots December ÷ October and January ÷ October as “change versus October.”

Change in December and January 2026 settled-ADR estimates relative to October 2025 (finalized values).

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The Type Is Decided Not by “How Much Snow” but by “Whether Snow Changes the Product” — Elevation, Heavy-Snow Designation, Ski Areas and Distance from Tokyo

So what separates the types? We lined up candidate factors: elevation, MLIT heavy-snow area designation, the presence of ski areas and their proximity to lodging, travel time from the Tokyo metropolitan area, and the main purpose of stays. Looking at heavy-snow designations (as of April 1, 2022), Hakuba, Yuzawa, Yamanouchi and Myoko — all designated special heavy-snow areas — are winter-peak, which is consistent. However, Takayama, where the former Shokawa Village is a special heavy-snow area, and other areas that are heavy-snow areas are nonetheless autumn-peak, and Nasu Town is flat-type even though the entire town is a heavy-snow area. Conversely, Yuzawa’s onsen town sits at roughly 350m, the lowest of the 16 municipalities, yet its January ÷ October ratio is 1.91x, second only to Hakuba. Elevation and snowfall alone do not determine the type (the cost-side impact of heavy-snow designation is tallied by designation category across 180,000 rooms in five prefectures in our analysis showing hotel costs in heavy-snow areas run ¥115,000 per room per year).

The deciding factor is whether lodging and ski slopes are within walking distance, so that the “reason to stay” switches the moment snow arrives. In Yuzawa a ski area connects directly to the shinkansen station, and in Hakuba, Myoko and Yamanouchi (Shiga Kogen) the lodging areas themselves sit at the foot of the slopes. Kusatsu also has a ski area adjacent to the onsen town, and snow viewing at 1,200m becomes a product from December. By contrast, Takayama and Matsumoto have ski areas within city limits but far from the city centers, so the purpose of stays remains streetscapes and foliage. Gero and Shibukawa (Ikaho) have no large ski areas to begin with. Distance from Tokyo includes both long and short trips in each type and is not a variable that separates them. Karuizawa, a year-round resort with no heavy-snow designation, settles into the flat type, and in Nasu, year-round demand as a highland resort also smooths out seasonal peaks.

Elevations are approximate values for the center of each onsen town (approximations based on public sources). Heavy-snow designations are from MLIT’s “Designation Status of Heavy-Snow and Special Heavy-Snow Areas” (as of April 1, 2022). “Partly” refers to municipalities where designated zones are split by pre-merger former municipality. Travel times are approximate by rail/bus.

Source: MLIT “Designation Status of Heavy-Snow Areas”; MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

On a map, the winter-peak areas line up in a belt along the mountains of the Joshin’etsu border (Hakuba, Myoko, Shiga Kogen, Yuzawa, Kusatsu, Manza, Minakami), while the autumn-peak areas are spread across basins and old highway towns in front of the mountains: Hida (Takayama, Gero), the Matsumoto Basin, Nikko and Ikaho.

Circle color: navy = autumn-peak, blue = winter-peak, gray = flat. Circle size is proportional to the December 2025 settled-ADR estimate. Click to show October and December levels.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Does Inventory Also Sell Out First in the Months When Prices Rise? — Checking the Types Against October Booking Curves

Whether a price peak is pulled by demand or whether pricing design is moving first can be checked by how inventory is absorbed. Here, for October 2026 stay dates, we compared the monthly average remaining-inventory rate (based on OTA-listed inventory, estimated) from LT45 to LT1 across all properties in each municipality. October is the main season for the autumn-peak type: Takayama had a remaining-inventory rate of 14.3% at 45 days out (117 properties / 3,630 rooms, based on major booking-site listings), absorbed down to 7.1% by the day before. Matsumoto went from 19.7% at 45 days out to 2.9% the day before, and Gero from 27.0% to 8.9%. Inventory sells out earliest in the month when prices are highest, so the autumn-peak can be read as demand-driven.

In contrast, October is off-season for the winter-peak type. Yuzawa still had 35.8% remaining at 45 days out and 24.3% even the day before; Tsumagoi had 27.2% the day before and Minakami 18.2%. Kusatsu, going from 33.9% at 45 days out to 12.9% the day before, absorbs more than other winter-peak areas, confirming once again that year-round demand for strolling the onsen town supports a base even in autumn.

Monthly average booking curve for October 2026 stays (remaining-inventory rate = share of total rooms still available on OTAs, estimated). Solid lines = autumn-peak, dashed lines = winter-peak. LT45–LT1. See the table below for the number of properties and rooms.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

For November stay dates, observation had only progressed to around LT45–LT20 as of the survey date, so only the 45-day and 30-day points are compared with October. In Takayama and Matsumoto, where October is the highest month, the 45-day remaining-inventory rate for November is higher than for October (Takayama 14.3% → 20.1%, Matsumoto 19.7% → 27.4%), consistent with November ADR falling below October. Kusatsu, on the other hand, has almost the same remaining-inventory rate in October (33.9%) and November (32.9%), yet its ADR is already rising from ¥17,300 in October to ¥17,500 in November and ¥18,400 in December. In the winter-peak type, then, the price staircase is designed ahead of inventory absorption. Observation for December stay dates begins on October 17 or later, so we will revisit December inventory absorption once more data has accumulated.

Remaining-inventory rate at each LT point (share of total rooms still available on OTAs, monthly average, estimated). For October, all stay dates have been observed (LT1 is the 12-day average for stays on October 1–12); for November, the values are averages of LT45 (25 days) and LT30 (10 days) for stays on November 1–25. Coverage is properties of all categories in each municipality, based on major booking-site listings.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Kusatsu Onsen Draws 4.05 Million Visitors and Over 60,000 Year-End/New Year Overnight Guests — The Depth of Winter-Peak Demand

As the representative of the winter-peak type, let us also check the evidence for demand at Kusatsu Onsen. Kusatsu Town announced 4,053,223 visitors for FY2025 (according to a Yomiuri Shimbun report), exceeding 4 million for the second consecutive year and reportedly setting a record for the third straight year. According to Gunma Prefecture’s “FY2025 (Reiwa 7) Visitor Status at Major Onsen Areas and Ski Resorts in the Prefecture over the Year-End/New Year Period,” overnight guests over the nine days from December 27, 2025 to January 4, 2026 were 60,187 at Kusatsu Onsen (108.0% of the prior year), 47,029 at Minakami Onsen-kyo (102.0%), and 42,064 at Ikaho Onsen (101.1%), with the total for the prefecture’s seven major onsen areas at 175,190 (103.8%). In the same survey a year earlier, Kusatsu Onsen recorded 55,723 (104.6%), meaning year-end/New Year stays have grown two years in a row.

Overlaying these figures on the settled-ADR estimates, Kusatsu’s December peak can be understood as “an area where demand thickens toward the year-end/New Year holidays, with the price staircase designed in advance from November.” Minakami Onsen-kyo (Minakami Town) also saw year-end/New Year guests grow, and its ADR peaks in January at ¥20,100. Ikaho Onsen (Shibukawa City) saw only a slight rise in year-end/New Year guests, and its ADR peak is in the foliage month of November at ¥20,900, settling a notch to ¥19,600–¥19,200 in winter. Even among onsen areas within the same Gunma Prefecture, Kusatsu and Minakami are winter-type while Ikaho is autumn-type — a difference that cannot be overlooked when thinking about pricing design.

For Operators — How to Identify Your Property’s Type and Design Products for Trough Months

Your property’s type does not necessarily match your area’s type. Even within Kusatsu, a property near the ski area and one around Yubatake may have peaks in different positions. Three steps are enough to make the determination. First, line up your property’s monthly settled ADR (or average selling rate) for October–January over the past two years and see whether the highest month is the same in both years. If it is, that month is your peak; if it changes from year to year, treat your property as flat-type. Second, compare the remaining-inventory rate at 45, 30 and 14 days before the peak month with that of the trough months: if inventory sells out first in the peak month, it is demand-driven; if only the rate rises while the remaining-inventory rate stays the same, it is price-driven. Third, compare your area’s type (from the tables in this article) with your property’s type, and if they differ, articulate why (room types, meals, location). Once this is organized, what to sell in the trough months becomes clear.

Source: Metro Engines Inc.; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Note that the types are not a ranking of which is “better.” The autumn-peak type is proof that an area is fully capturing foliage demand, and the winter-peak type is proof that it has skiing and snow viewing as products. Both types have trough months, and which products fill those troughs determines annual revenue design.

Summary

Looking at the October–January settled-ADR estimates for 16 onsen municipalities in Tochigi, Gunma, Gifu, Nagano and Niigata, Takayama, Nikko, Matsumoto, Gero and Ikaho fall into the “autumn-peak type” with a peak in autumn; Kusatsu, Hakuba, Yuzawa, Myoko, Shiga Kogen, Manza and Minakami into the “winter-peak type” with a peak in winter; and Nasu, Shiobara, Karuizawa and Omachi into the “flat type” with shallow peaks — and these types reproduced in both 2024-25 and 2025-26. What separates the types is not snowfall or elevation but whether a ski area sits right next to the lodging so that snow switches the reason to stay. Kusatsu Onsen has a two-layer structure in which snow viewing and skiing layer onto year-round demand for Yubatake and the public baths from December, holding a plateau through winter after peaking in December. October booking curves confirmed a demand-driven pattern in which autumn-peak inventory sells out first, while in the winter-peak type the price staircase was designed ahead of inventory absorption. Operators should check whether their property’s highest month matches across two consecutive years, and decide according to their type whether to strengthen multi-night, weekday or meal-inclusive offerings in the trough months.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. In which month are room rates at Kusatsu Onsen highest?
A. According to MetroEngines Research’s settled-ADR estimates (Kusatsu Town, 2 guests per room, tax-exclusive equivalent), December was the highest of the October–January months in both 2024-25 and 2025-26. December 2025 was ¥21,300 (N=77 properties), 1.24x October.

Q. Why do rates in Hida-Takayama and Nikko fall in December?
A. Because the main reasons to visit are streetscapes, shrines and temples, and foliage, and snow does not become a reason to stay. October booking curves also confirm a demand-driven pattern in which inventory sells out first; after demand is fully captured in the foliage season, rates decline toward December, with the annual trough around February.

Q. How should I determine which type my property is?
A. Line up your monthly settled rates for October–January over the past two years and check whether the highest month is the same in both years. If it is, that month is your peak; if it changes year to year, you are flat-type. In addition, comparing the remaining-inventory rate at 45 and 30 days before the peak month with that of the trough months shows whether you are demand-driven or price-driven.