Counting lodging facilities in Osaka that opened in 2026 (or are scheduled to open before year-end), HotelBank Editorial Team’s new-opening data as of October 30, 2026 shows 53 properties and 3,566 rooms. By category, business hotels account for 24 properties and 1,876 rooms and city hotels for 7 properties and 845 rooms; together, the two categories make up 2,721 rooms, or 76% of the total. Openings were concentrated in the three months of April–June, with 1,915 rooms (53.7%). Meanwhile, Osaka’s settled ADR for the finalized month of September 2026 was ¥8,872 for business hotels (N=504), −34.0% YoY, and ¥13,077 for city hotels (N=97), −21.8% YoY. However, September of last year fell during the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, so the comparison base itself includes a special demand boost. This article breaks down when and at what scale supply accumulated by opening month and room count, checks where settled ADR landed by overlaying three years including pre-Expo 2024, and then uses the November–December booking curves as a foundation for revenue management practice during a supply expansion.
Scope: 2026 openings in Osaka, N=53 properties (24 business hotels and 7 city hotels); settled ADR for Osaka business hotels N=504 and city hotels N=97 (finalized September 2026). Price metrics in this article are settled ADR (the achieved price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent), and occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of October 30, 2026.
• ADR (average daily rate) = the estimated achieved rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying category-specific adjustment coefficients to the lowest-plan level each property publishes on OTAs (per-room rate for 2 guests in 1 room, tax included). Checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, latest 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual achieved prices and accounting figures.
• ADR at the area level (prefecture or municipality) is the median estimated achieved rate of the properties in scope (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for 2 guests in 1 room (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracking OTA public prices for about 168,000 properties in Japan, of which about 27,000 are confirmed active)
- — 53 properties, 3,566 rooms: Osaka’s 2026 openings equal 3.1% of the existing stock of 113,417 rooms. Of these, 53.7% (1,915 rooms) came in April–June, so the supply peak arrived in spring rather than in the second half.
- — Settled ADR for finalized September: business ¥8,872 (−34.0% YoY), city ¥13,077 (−21.8% YoY). Against pre-Expo 2024, business is +1.0% and city +15.4%.
- — Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) reached 88.8% for business and 92.1% for city in October 2026. Even with new inventory in the cohort, rooms are selling through in the peak season.
- — Early-December Saturdays start about 10 points below November. Even with a November-style build of +12 to +15 points, business hotels would land at only 71–78%.
- — For January–March 2027 price floors, a business hotel guideline is the same month of 2024 × (−5.5% to +6.5%). City hotels show a wider spread of ¥2,300–¥2,600, so floors are better reset month by month.
53 New Properties and 3,566 Rooms in 2026 — Openings Came Early, in April–June, Not in the Second Half
First, the volume and timing of supply. The 2026 openings in Osaka tracked by HotelBank Editorial Team total 53 properties and 3,566 rooms, with opening dates from January 1 to December 17, 2026 (including 1 property with 202 rooms scheduled for December). In the first half (January–June), 32 properties with 2,357 rooms opened, equal to 66.1% of the year’s rooms. The second half (July–December) accounts for only 21 properties and 1,209 rooms. Rather than supply building up from autumn onward, openings were pulled forward and concentrated in spring 2026, about six months after the Expo closed.
By month, April stands out with 8 properties and 947 rooms, followed by June with 8 properties and 636 rooms and May with 4 properties and 332 rooms. These three months added 1,915 rooms, or 53.7% of the annual total. July had the most properties at 10, but only 309 rooms, and 9 of them were small properties of 40 rooms or fewer. August had 4 properties and 382 rooms, one of which is a large 302-room business hotel. From October onward, 2 properties with 181 rooms opened in October and only 1 property with 202 rooms is scheduled for December, while no November openings could be confirmed at this point (because the count is based on OTA listings, it may rise as new listings appear).
This chart is compiled on an OTA-listing-confirmed basis. Only about 19% of properties are listed on OTAs before opening and more than half are listed after opening, so counts for recent and future months and years may rise as listings appear. We recommend reading it alongside the building-permit-based construction pipeline (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, “Building Starts Statistics”).
Source: MetroEngines Research (OTA-listing-confirmed basis, N=53 properties), compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka, 2026 openings, rooms by opening month; December includes scheduled openings)
The table below shows the breakdown by category. By rooms, business hotels lead with 1,876 rooms (52.6%), followed by city hotels with 845 rooms (23.7%), hostels with 490 rooms (13.7%) and resort hotels with 265 rooms (7.4%). Vacation rentals, machiya and guesthouses number 9 properties or more but total only 90 rooms. That property counts and room counts do not line up is a defining feature of Osaka’s supply this year.
| Category | Properties | Rooms | Share of rooms | Avg. rooms per property |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business hotels | 24 | 1,876 | 52.6% | 78 |
| City hotels | 7 | 845 | 23.7% | 121 |
| Hostels | 8 | 490 | 13.7% | 61 |
| Resort hotels | 2 | 265 | 7.4% | 133 |
| Vacation rentals, machiya, guesthouses, etc. | 12 | 90 | 2.5% | 8 |
| Total | 53 | 3,566 | 100% | 67 |
Source: MetroEngines Research (OTA-listing-confirmed basis, N=53 properties), compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka, 2026 openings; includes 1 property registered with 0 rooms)
Next, the skew in scale. Openings of 100 rooms or more number 12 properties with 2,335 rooms in total: only 23% of properties but 65.5% of rooms. Narrowing to 200 rooms or more gives 7 properties and 1,688 rooms, listed with their opening dates in the table below. Note that the new-opening data also counts “re-openings” from renovations or rebrands of existing buildings as new. According to public information, Sugata Hotel Osaka Shinsaibashi (256 rooms, April) was announced as a rebrand of an existing hotel and Travelodge Osaka Shinsaibashi (302 rooms, August) as an opening after a full renovation, so these two properties’ 558 rooms (15.6% of the year) differ in nature from a net addition in the strict sense. Even excluding them, 3,008 rooms were added on a net basis.
| Property | Rooms | Opening date | Category | Notes (public information) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travelodge Osaka Shinsaibashi (トラベロッジ大阪心斎橋) | 302 | 2026-08-01 | Business hotels | Opened after full renovation of an existing building |
| Centara Life Namba Hotel Osaka (センタラライフなんばホテル大阪) | 300 | 2026-04-01 | Business hotels | Officially announced opening date is April 6 |
| Sugata Hotel Osaka Shinsaibashi, Series by Marriott (スガタ ホテル 大阪心斎橋 シリーズ byマリオット) | 256 | 2026-04-01 | Resort hotels | Rebrand of an existing hotel |
| The Gate Hotel Osaka by HULIC (ザ・ゲートホテル大阪 by HULIC) | 223 | 2026-06-15 | City hotels | New build directly connected to Shinsaibashi Station |
| GRAND HOSTEL LDK Osaka Shinsekai (GRAND HOSTEL LDK大阪新世界) | 205 | 2026-06-18 | Hostels | — |
| Solaria Nishitetsu Hotel Osaka Honmachi (ソラリア西鉄ホテル大阪本町) | 202 | 2026-12-17 | Business hotels | Scheduled (official announcement: opens December 18) |
| Anchored by Rihga Osaka Namba (アンカード・バイ・リーガ 大阪なんば) | 200 | 2026-04-03 | City hotels | First property of a new brand |
Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (opening dates and room counts are editorial data on an OTA-listing-confirmed basis; notes are based on company releases and press reports; references are at the end of the article)
It is also worth setting this against existing stock. Lodging facilities in Osaka listed on major booking sites number 745 properties and 113,417 rooms (as of October 30, 2026). The 3,566 rooms opening in 2026 equal 3.1% of that, or 2.4% for the 2,721 business and city hotel rooms alone. Annual room growth of around 3% looks moderate at first glance, but more than 50% of it was concentrated in the three spring months, and large properties of 100+ rooms made up two-thirds of the rooms, so the market since summer 2026 has been operating with “a full set of large new inventory” in place. New Supply Didn’t Cut ADR: Kure +21% Rooms, +6.5%; Shinsaibashi -36%, which tests the relationship between new supply and rates in 4 markets including Shinsaibashi, addresses the same question from another angle. With this shape of supply in mind, let us look at where prices landed.
Where Settled ADR Landed — The Steep YoY Declines Are an Expo Rebound; Against 2024, Rates Are Roughly Flat
On pricing, we overlay settled ADR through September 2026, the latest finalized month, across three years: pre-Expo 2024, 2025 including the Expo period (April 13–October 13, 2025), and 2026. Business hotels (N=504) were at ¥8,872 in September 2026, a steep −34.0% from ¥13,450 (N=498) a year earlier. Compared with ¥8,784 (N=494) in September 2024, however, that is +1.0%, so it is closer to the reality to read this as an almost complete return to the pre-Expo level. April–August shows the same pattern: YoY declines widen as the Expo period progresses, at −23.8% in April, −27.5% in May, −32.8% in June, −31.9% in July and −33.6% in August, while the comparison with 2024 stays within a few percent either way, at +3.3% in April, +6.5% in May, −5.5% in June, −3.1% in July and −5.1% in August.
Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka business hotels, settled ADR; 2024 N=484–499, 2025 N=487–503, 2026 N=493–504; dotted line from October 2026 is an estimate based on current sales and may change)
City hotels (N=97) look somewhat different. At ¥13,077 in September 2026, they were −21.8% from ¥16,733 (N=91) a year earlier, a smaller decline than business hotels. Compared with ¥11,336 (N=88) in September 2024, that is +15.4%, a clearly higher landing than before the Expo. By month against 2024, the figures are +7.2% in April, +7.2% in May, −6.0% in June, +1.6% in July and −0.9% in August, which makes September’s +15.4% stand out. Note that the number of properties in scope grew from 88 in 2024 to 97 in 2026, and newly opened properties added in this period may be moving the median.
Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka city hotels, settled ADR; 2024 N=83–88, 2025 N=89–91, 2026 N=91–97; dotted line from October 2026 is an estimate based on current sales and may change)
| Month (finalized) | Business 2026 | YoY | vs. 2024 | City 2026 | YoY | vs. 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | ¥9,845 | −23.8% | +3.3% | ¥13,091 | −18.1% | +7.2% |
| May | ¥9,699 | −27.5% | +6.5% | ¥12,878 | −16.6% | +7.2% |
| Jun | ¥7,884 | −32.8% | −5.5% | ¥10,769 | −26.3% | −6.0% |
| Jul | ¥8,429 | −31.9% | −3.1% | ¥12,582 | −25.1% | +1.6% |
| Aug | ¥8,772 | −33.6% | −5.1% | ¥13,078 | −24.4% | −0.9% |
| Sep | ¥8,872 | −34.0% | +1.0% | ¥13,077 | −21.8% | +15.4% |
Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka, finalized settled ADR; business N=495–504, city N=94–97; the prior year includes the Expo period)
To sum up, 2026 Osaka presents a double picture: “down 20–30% YoY; against pre-Expo 2024, business is roughly flat and city swings between −6% and +15%, with a large gain in September.” The supply increase of 1,915 rooms in spring coincides with the period when business hotels sank slightly below the waterline against 2024, at about −3% to −5% in June–August, so new inventory may have acted as a drag on rates during the months it was ramping up. September, however, returned to a gain against 2024, so it seems fair to view this as a process of prices converging toward pre-Expo levels while the market absorbs supply. For October–December, estimates based on current sales show business at ¥11,111 (N=499), ¥11,100 (N=496) and ¥10,225 (N=493), and city at ¥15,844, ¥15,131 and ¥14,282 (all N=97), but simple comparisons with finalized values should wait until each month closes. The approach of rereading finalized September with 2024 as the baseline is explored in Osaka Sep 2026 Settled ADR: Business −34.0%, City −21.8% vs Expo Year.
Current Occupancy and November–December Booking Curves — Even With New Inventory, October Saturdays Topped 90% and November Is Building
To see whether inventory is selling through in a market with more supply, we check estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis). The September 2026 monthly average was 80.0% for Osaka business hotels (285–300 properties, 47,820–49,130 rooms, listed on major booking sites) and 82.0% for city hotels (34–40 properties, 7,905–9,042 rooms). October (stay dates October 1–October 30) rose to autumn peak-season levels at 88.8% for business (289–304 properties) and 92.1% for city (40–43 properties). The September high came on Sunday, September 20, during the 5-day holiday run, at 100.0% for both categories, and the next day, Monday, September 21 (holiday), was 98.3% for business and 98.8% for city, so the holidays shaped the month. By contrast, the lowest business hotel readings were 65.4% on Sunday, September 6 and 66.2% on Wednesday, September 23 (holiday), the last day of the run, nearly 35 points below the holiday peak.
| Avg. estimated OCC by day | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business, Sep 2026 | 80.9% | 80.0% | 78.2% | 80.6% | 78.3% | 86.3% | 76.0% |
| Business, Oct 2026 (to the 30th) | 83.0% | 89.2% | 91.2% | 92.2% | 88.8% | 93.5% | 82.8% |
| City, Sep 2026 | 83.2% | 79.9% | 78.6% | 80.5% | 83.0% | 88.9% | 81.2% |
| City, Oct 2026 (to the 30th) | 88.2% | 91.1% | 93.4% | 93.6% | 92.0% | 96.7% | 89.6% |
Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka, day-of-week averages of estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis; business 285–304 properties, city 34–43 properties; October covers stay dates October 1–30)
By day of week, Saturday is highest in both categories, reaching 86.3% for business in September and 93.5% in October, while Sunday is the weekly low at 76.0% in September and 82.8% in October. In October, midweek Tuesday–Thursday reached 89–92% for business and 91–94% for city, close to Saturday levels, which points to deep weekday demand in autumn. Despite the peaks and valleys across the week, the fact that a cohort including new inventory posts these levels shows that added supply has not significantly undermined current occupancy.
For the coming November–December, we track progress with booking curves (observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest available). The table below lines up estimated OCC at 45 days out, 30 days out and the latest observation for representative Saturday and Wednesday stay dates. For business hotels, Saturday, November 7 went from 71.6% at 45 days out to 77.5% at 30 days out and 86.4% at 9 days out, a build of 14.8 points, while Saturday, November 14 was already at 80.8% at 45 days out and reached 92.6% at 16 days out. Midweek Wednesday, November 11 was 50.4% at 45 days out and 69.6% at 13 days out, with the latest observation running 17 points below the preceding Saturday (November 7). In December, Saturday, December 5 is at 62.8% at 37 days out and Saturday, December 12 at 59.4% at 44 days out, a little more than 10 points below what November Saturdays showed at the same lead times (November 7: 74.3% at 37 days out and 71.9% at 44 days out; November 21: 75.3% at 37 days out and 70.7% at 44 days out).
| Stay date | Business 45 days out | 30 days out | Latest observed | City 45 days out | 30 days out | Latest observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7 | 71.6% | 77.5% | 86.4% (9 days out) | 85.8% | 88.3% | 93.3% (9 days out) |
| Wed, Nov 11 | 50.4% | 57.8% | 69.6% (13 days out) | 75.8% | 78.0% | 83.6% (13 days out) |
| Sat, Nov 14 | 80.8% | 88.1% | 92.6% (16 days out) | 90.2% | 94.0% | 97.5% (16 days out) |
| Sat, Nov 21 | 70.4% | 80.1% | 84.4% (23 days out) | 91.7% | 96.7% | 97.5% (23 days out) |
| Wed, Nov 25 | 52.6% | 59.6% | 61.7% (27 days out) | 72.6% | 77.1% | 79.6% (27 days out) |
| Sat, Nov 28 | 65.1% | 72.9% | 72.9% (30 days out) | 81.2% | 87.1% | 87.1% (30 days out) |
| Sat, Dec 5 | 58.9% | — | 62.8% (37 days out) | 75.2% | — | 78.1% (37 days out) |
| Wed, Dec 9 | 46.6% | — | 48.6% (41 days out) | 67.6% | — | 68.9% (41 days out) |
| Sat, Dec 12 | 59.1% | — | 59.4% (44 days out) | 76.1% | — | 76.6% (44 days out) |
Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka, estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis; business 296–299 properties / 48,682–48,937 rooms, city 40 properties / 9,232 rooms; observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest available; “—” means that lead time has not yet been reached)
City hotel curves sit higher across the board, with Saturday, November 14 and Saturday, November 21 reaching 97.5% some 2–3 weeks before the stay. November in Osaka is a period of strong demand from autumn foliage and autumn events, and curves holding high even in a cohort including newly opened properties suggest that added supply has not immediately hurt peak-season occupancy. On the other hand, December Saturdays starting about 10 points below November at the same lead times point to next month’s challenge: how to secure enough build toward year-end. The difference in curve shape between business and city hotels can also be seen in Osaka Oct Long Weekend Booking Curves: City 88.8% vs Business 76.8%, which covers the October three-day weekend.
Sensitivity Analysis — Setting Ranges for January–March Price Floors and Early-December Saturday Landings
Before turning to the action plan, we build two sensitivity tables from the figures in this article. Neither is a new demand forecast; both are arithmetic ranges combining actual and observed values from the article.
The first concerns how to set price floors for the low season (January–March 2027). Using finalized values for the same month of 2024 as the baseline and applying the minimum, median and maximum “vs. 2024” changes actually observed in April–September 2026, when supply was increasing, gives the ranges below. The April–September 2026 change against 2024 was −5.5% to +6.5% for business hotels (median −1.1%) and −6.0% to +15.4% for city hotels (median +4.4%).
| Month / category | 2024 finalized (baseline) | Pessimistic (min.) | Mid (median) | Optimistic (max.) | Reference: 2026 same-month finalized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan, business | ¥8,188 | ¥7,740 | ¥8,100 | ¥8,720 | ¥9,144 |
| Feb, business | ¥8,871 | ¥8,390 | ¥8,780 | ¥9,450 | ¥8,430 |
| Mar, business | ¥9,404 | ¥8,890 | ¥9,310 | ¥10,010 | ¥9,324 |
| Jan, city | ¥10,968 | ¥10,310 | ¥11,450 | ¥12,650 | ¥14,015 |
| Feb, city | ¥11,294 | ¥10,610 | ¥11,790 | ¥13,030 | ¥11,421 |
| Mar, city | ¥11,937 | ¥11,220 | ¥12,460 | ¥13,770 | ¥12,792 |
Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka, finalized settled ADR; business N=484–504, city N=83–97; scenario values are estimates calculated as same month of 2024 × (1 + min./median/max. of the April–September 2026 change vs. 2024), rounded to the nearest ¥10)
For business hotels, the spread across the 3 scenarios stays around ¥1,000 per month (¥7,740–¥8,720 in January), and finalized values for February 2026 (¥8,430) and March 2026 (¥9,324) fall within this range. January 2026 (¥9,144), however, exceeded the optimistic scenario, so it makes sense to use the same-month 2024 level as a guideline for the floor rather than as a cap on upside. For city hotels, the gap between pessimistic and optimistic is wide at ¥2,300–¥2,600, and ¥14,015 in January 2026 also exceeded the optimistic scenario (¥12,650). There is ample reason not to set the city hotel floor on a single line from the same month of 2024, but to reset it month by month.
The second concerns how far early-December Saturdays can build. The table below shows landings from adding +3 to +15 points of further build to current observations. For reference, November Saturdays (the 7th, 14th and 21st) gained +11.8 to +14.8 points for business and +5.8 to +7.5 points for city from 45 days out to the latest observation (9–23 days out).
| Stay date / category | Current observation | +3pt | +6pt | +9pt | +12pt | +15pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Dec 5, business | 62.8% (37 days out) | 65.8% | 68.8% | 71.8% | 74.8% | 77.8% |
| Sat, Dec 12, business | 59.4% (44 days out) | 62.4% | 65.4% | 68.4% | 71.4% | 74.4% |
| Sat, Dec 5, city | 78.1% (37 days out) | 81.1% | 84.1% | 87.1% | 90.1% | 93.1% |
| Sat, Dec 12, city | 76.6% (44 days out) | 79.6% | 82.6% | 85.6% | 88.6% | 91.6% |
Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka, estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis; business 296–299 properties, city 40 properties; further build is an assumed value and landings are simple additions to observed values, not a demand forecast)
Even with a November-Saturday-style build of +12 to +15 points, business hotels would land at 71.4–77.8%, short of the 84.4–92.6% that November Saturdays showed at the latest observation. Bringing early-December business hotel Saturdays up to November levels would take about +22 points on December 5 and +25 points on December 12. City hotels reach 88.6–90.1% with +12 points, but matching the latest November Saturday observations (93.3–97.5%) would require +15 to +17 points. The decision in Action Plan item 4 in the next section, “splitting inventory between rooms that wait for a late build and rooms secured early,” should be made with the size of this gap in mind.
For Revenue Managers Running Business and City Hotels in Osaka — Implications and Action Plan
1. Switch the yardstick from YoY to “vs. 2024.” September 2026’s −34.0% for business and −21.8% for city compare with a prior year that fell in the Expo period. Even if your own YoY decline is similar, check your position against the market’s landing relative to the same month of 2024: +1.0% for business and +15.4% for city. Discussing budget shortfalls on YoY alone leaves the loss of Expo demand and the effect of added supply undifferentiated, and could lead you to cut price floors more than necessary.
2. The supply increase “happened in spring”; the autumn peak season is already a market that includes new inventory. After 1,915 rooms were added in April–June, business hotel settled ADR sank slightly below 2024 levels in June–August. By September, however, it was back above 2024, and estimated OCC in October rose to 88.8% for business and 92.1% for city. The current market curve is at this level with large new inventory already included, so if your own pace lags the market, it is worth examining property-specific factors (price tier, how plans are presented, channel allocation) rather than simply blaming supply.
3. Within the weekly pattern, the Sunday trough is deep. Business hotels in September were 86.3% on Saturdays versus 76.0% on Sundays, and in October 93.5% versus 82.8%, with Sundays a little more than 10 points below Saturdays. In a market with more new openings, competing on price alone on weak days such as Sundays and post-holiday dates tends to wear hotels down. Consider non-price designs to fill Sundays, such as multi-night stays or Sunday check-in perks.
4. December Saturdays are starting from a lower position than November. Saturday, December 5 at 62.8% (37 days out) and Saturday, December 12 at 59.4% (44 days out) are below the roughly 70% that November Saturdays showed at the same lead times. Given that Saturday, November 7 built 14.8 points from 45 days out to 9 days out, early-December Saturdays still have room to grow late, but whether to wait for that growth or go after it early depends on your remaining rooms and price tier.
| Horizon | Action | Decision trigger (figures from this article) | Goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today to this week | Compare remaining rooms and current rates for November Saturdays (the 7th, 14th and 21st) with the market curve | The market on Saturday, November 14 is 92.6% for business and 97.5% for city (16 days out). If you are well below this, review your price tier; if above, review how you release remaining rooms | Neither miss demand nor discount on peak-season Saturdays |
| Today to this week | Re-sort your own finalized April–September 2026 ADR by “vs. same month of 2024” and recheck the budget baseline | The market is +1.0% for business in September and +15.4% for city in September (both vs. 2024). If any month falls far outside this range, isolate the cause | Separate the Expo rebound from the effect of added supply |
| Within two weeks | Improve the visibility of weekday corporate and multi-night plans for November Wednesdays (the 11th and 25th) | Market Wednesdays are 50–53% at 45 days out and only 62–70% (business) at the latest observation, 11–23 points below the adjacent Saturdays | Lift weekdays through means other than price |
| Within two weeks | Prepare non-price measures such as multi-night perks and late check-out for weak days such as Sunday check-ins and post-holiday dates | September Sundays were 76.0% for business, and Wednesday, September 23 (holiday), the last day of the holiday run, was close to the monthly low at 66.2% | Do not fill weak days with discounts alone |
| Looking to next month | For early-December Saturdays (the 5th and 12th), design inventory by splitting rooms that wait for a late build from rooms secured early | The market is at 62.8% for Saturday, December 5 (37 days out) and 59.4% for Saturday, December 12 (44 days out). Saturday, November 7 gained +14.8 points from 45 days out to 9 days out | Capture the start of year-end demand while protecting the floor |
| Looking to next month | In light of the December opening (202 rooms) and market estimates for the new year, reset January–March price floors with reference to finalized values for the same month of 2024 | Finalized January–March 2024 values are ¥8,188–¥9,404 for business and ¥10,968–¥11,937 for city | Align low-season price floors with pre-boom actuals |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (decision-trigger figures refer to the settled ADR and estimated OCC in this article)
Summary — 3 Yardsticks for Reading a Supply Expansion
First, “volume and timing.” Osaka’s 2026 openings total 53 properties and 3,566 rooms, equal to 3.1% of the existing stock of 113,417 rooms, with 66.1% in the first half and 53.7% in April–June. The supply shock came in spring rather than the second half, and the autumn market already includes that inventory. Second, “the basis of comparison.” Finalized September settled ADR is −34.0% YoY for business and −21.8% for city, but +1.0% and +15.4% respectively against pre-Expo 2024, so the loss of special demand and the effect of added supply need to be viewed separately. Third, “the position of the curve.” Estimated OCC in October was 88.8% for business and 92.1% for city, and November Saturdays reached 73–93% for business and 87–98% for city at the latest observation, so even with new inventory, peak-season sell-through is progressing. The fact that December Saturdays are starting below November should be the starting point for next month’s build planning.
About the Data
| Estimated OCC | Occupancy on an OTA-listed inventory basis = 100 − 100 × remaining OTA-listed rooms ÷ total rooms. The scope is a fixed cohort of properties listing at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; the property counts in the text are its size). It is an estimate based on the sell-through of inventory sold on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it reads higher because unlisted rooms are counted as sold). Target months are September 2026 (September 1–30) and October 2026 (stay dates October 1–30); the scope is business hotels 285–304 properties / 47,472–49,245 rooms and city hotels 34–43 properties / 7,905–10,388 rooms (listed on major booking sites). |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest available. The scope is business hotels 296–299 properties / 48,682–48,937 rooms and city hotels 40 properties / 9,232 rooms. |
| Settled ADR | The achieved price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × category coefficient, ensembled across multiple channels). Past months are finalized; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error against published operating results is 6.6%. Scope: Osaka business hotels (2024 N=484–499, 2025 N=487–503, 2026 N=493–504) and city hotels (2024 N=83–88, 2025 N=89–91, 2026 N=91–97). YoY comparisons are made only between finalized months. |
| New openings | 2026 openings in Osaka tracked by HotelBank Editorial Team, N=53 (OTA-listing-confirmed basis; opening dates 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-17, including scheduled December openings). Because OTA listings are confirmed from several months before opening through after opening, counts for recent and future months may rise as listings appear. Includes re-openings from renovations or rebrands of existing buildings. Categories follow editorial classification. Existing stock is 745 properties and 113,417 rooms listed on major booking sites. |
| Data as of | Data as of October 30, 2026. Sales status and inventory change daily, so figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of collection. |
References and Sources
■ Data sources
Compiled from MetroEngines Research (continuously tracking OTA public prices and inventory in Japan) Osaka data: 53 properties opening in 2026 (OTA-listing-confirmed basis), settled ADR (business hotels N=484–504, city hotels N=83–97, January 2024–December 2026), estimated OCC (September and October 2026) and booking curves (9 stay dates in November–December 2026). Notes on opening properties are based on company releases and press reports (listed below).
■ Calculation assumptions
YoY and vs. 2024 are comparisons between finalized months. Floor scenarios in Table 6 multiply the finalized same month of 2024 by the minimum (business −5.5%, city −6.0%), median (−1.1%, +4.4%) and maximum (+6.5%, +15.4%) of the April–September 2026 change vs. 2024, rounded to the nearest ¥10. Landings in Table 7 are simple additions of +3 to +15 points of further build to current observations.
■ Limitations and caveats
Settled ADR and estimated OCC are estimates based on OTA sales data and differ from each property’s actual achieved prices and room occupancy. Settled ADR from October 2026 onward and estimated OCC for November–December are snapshots at the time of collection (October 30, 2026) and change daily. Opening counts are on an OTA-listing-confirmed basis, may rise, and include re-openings from renovations or rebrands. Tables 6 and 7 are arithmetic ranges, not demand forecasts.
Related Reading
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