Comparing the estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent) of hotels and ryokan in Shizuoka Prefecture year on year, using finalized months only, shows that business hotels and city hotels — both below last year in August 2026 — moved back above last year together in September. Business hotels (N=221 properties) went from ¥7,854 in August (−0.4% YoY) to ¥7,372 in September (+7.9%), and city hotels (N=31) from ¥13,522 in August (−22.0%) to ¥14,565 in September (+7.8%). October, finalized in early November, widened the gap further: business ¥7,538 (+9.2%) and city ¥14,627 (+25.5%). Leisure-oriented segments, by contrast, stayed between flat and slightly negative: ryokan (N=460) were +2.7% in September and −2.9% in October, and resort hotels (N=148) −0.3% and −1.7%. This article separates the segments that recovered from the August dip in September and October from those that did not, reads the source of that difference from the monthly shape, and sets out the order in which to revisit the autumn–winter rate ladder.

Coverage: Shizuoka Prefecture business hotels N=221, city hotels N=31, ryokan N=460, resort hotels N=148 (number of properties in the estimated settled ADR calculation as of September 2026). The price metric in this article is the estimated settled ADR (the estimated transaction price level derived from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent). Past months are finalized values; November 2026 onward are estimates based on current sales. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of November 3, 2026.

From the August Dip to September and October — How YoY Moved in Four Segments

We start by lining up the YoY change for the three finalized months (August, September, October) across four segments. All YoY figures compare finalized 2025 values with finalized 2026 values; current estimates are not included. In August, all four segments were below last year: business hotels −0.4%, city hotels −22.0%, ryokan −4.0% and resort hotels −9.6%. In September, three segments turned positive — business +7.9%, city +7.8%, ryokan +2.7% — and resort hotels narrowed the decline to −0.3%. October was the month the segments clearly split: business +9.2% and city +25.5%, so the two limited-service and urban segments widened their gains, while ryokan (−2.9%) and resort hotels (−1.7%) slipped back below last year.

Estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent; finalized vs. finalized). N = number of properties in the estimated settled ADR calculation. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

Shizuoka Prefecture: YoY change in estimated settled ADR by segment (finalized vs. finalized). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

Two premises cannot be ignored when reading these YoY figures. The first is the calendar. September 2026 had a five-day holiday from the 19th (Sat) to the 23rd (Wed, Autumnal Equinox Day) — the 21st was Respect for the Aged Day and the 22nd a Citizens’ Holiday — whereas in September 2025 Respect for the Aged Day (15th, Mon) and Autumnal Equinox Day (23rd, Tue) were apart, giving only one three-day weekend. The difference in holiday structure is layered on top of September’s positive YoY. October 2026 also had five Saturdays (the 31st was a Saturday), one more than the four of the prior year. The second is coverage. For ryokan and resort hotels, the number of properties in the estimated settled ADR calculation has grown since June 2026 (ryokan 439→463 and resort hotels 131→150 in August), so their YoY mixes price movement with changes in the property mix. For business hotels (219–221 properties) and city hotels (31 in both years), the composition is almost unchanged, so their YoY can be read directly as price movement. For the uplift the same five-day holiday gave to business hotels’ September YoY nationwide, Business Hotel ADR Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY splits it into calendar factors and underlying strength — a useful reference when reading Shizuoka’s figure against the national picture.

Business Hotels — A Shallower August-to-September Drop Lifted the Autumn Level a Notch

In 2026, business hotels were above last year in seven of the ten finalized months from January to October, and the months below were only slightly so: May −1.1%, June −0.3%, August −0.4%. Except for January (+6.2%), the gains from the start of the year through summer stayed within a +0.7% to +2.4% range — Shizuoka’s business hotels had been having a year of “edging above last year.” Against that backdrop, the gains of +7.9% in September and +9.2% in October stand out for the year: the gap to last year opened sharply as autumn began.

Shizuoka Prefecture business hotels: estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent). November and December 2026 are estimates based on current sales (dashed line). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

The reason the gap opened lies in the depth of the August-to-September “trough.” In 2025, the rate fell 13.3% from ¥7,886 in August to ¥6,834 in September, and October (¥6,900) stayed at almost the same level. In 2026, by contrast, the drop from ¥7,854 in August to ¥7,372 in September was limited to 6.1%, and October rose a further 2.3% from September to ¥7,538. In other words, the August peak was nearly identical in both years (¥7,886 vs. ¥7,854), yet the post-summer level from September onward ran ¥500–¥600 higher in 2026. As noted, the September five-day holiday and October’s five Saturdays were tailwinds, but the fact that the monthly median — weekdays without holidays included — moved this much suggests that business hotels in the prefecture set their autumn rate ladder a step higher than last year.

Current sales point to ¥9,150 for November 2026 and ¥8,982 for December, but these are not finalized and may change toward month-end. A simple comparison with last year’s November (¥7,038) and December (¥6,815) has to wait for the months to close; this article treats only finalized-vs-finalized comparisons as YoY.

City Hotels — August −22.0% Reflects Last Year’s Spike; October +25.5% Last Year’s Trough

City hotels’ YoY swings widely — August −22.0%, September +7.8%, October +25.5% — but the 2026 levels themselves have been fairly steady: ¥13,522 in August, ¥14,565 in September and ¥14,627 in October. The swing comes mainly from the shape of 2025. In 2025, the rate jumped 29.9% from ¥13,341 in July to ¥17,333 in August, fell 22.1% to ¥13,506 in September, and dropped to ¥11,653 in October, the lowest of the year. In 2026 that peak and trough flattened out: July ¥13,252 to August ¥13,522 was a 2.0% rise, September was 7.7% above August, and October held at almost the same level as September. Prior-year peaks and troughs driving YoY swings are not unique to Shizuoka; Kanagawa Sept 2026 Settled ADR: City +15.8%, Business +6.5% Rebound breaks the same pattern down into the same two factors — the five-day holiday and the prior-year trough.

Shizuoka Prefecture city hotels: estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent; N=30–31 properties). November and December 2026 are estimates based on current sales (dashed line). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

This difference in shape means August’s −22.0% should not be read as “Shizuoka city hotels cut rates in summer.” The August 2026 figure of ¥13,522 was above July of the same year; the YoY decline is a base-period issue caused by August 2025 being unusually high relative to its normal pattern. By the same logic, October’s +25.5% does not mean October 2026 jumped from September (¥14,565 → ¥14,627, essentially flat); it is the rebound from October 2025 being the year’s low. With only 31 properties covered, the city-hotel median easily reflects pricing changes at a handful of properties. For the segment-wide trend, the stability of the level — “in 2026 the rate held in a ¥13,200–¥14,600 band from July to October” — is closer to the substance than any single month’s YoY. How volatile a median of around 30 properties can be is examined down to property-level quartiles in Shizuoka City Hotel ADR YoY: −2.5% to +16.6%.

Looking back across the year, city hotels had months well above last year — January +16.6%, May +16.1% — and months slightly below — February −1.6%, March −2.5%, April −0.3%, July −0.7% — making this a segment with large month-to-month swings. Still, September and October were above last year two months in a row, and the overall picture of making up the August dip in autumn points in the same direction as business hotels.

Ryokan and Resort Hotels — Not Fully Recovered in September, Back Below Last Year in October

Ryokan and resort hotels, which depend mainly on leisure demand, did not fully recover from the August dip in September and fell below last year again in October. Ryokan posted ¥21,542 in August (−4.0%), ¥17,484 in September (+2.7%) and ¥16,431 in October (−2.9%); only September, with its five-day holiday, was positive, and October came in under last year’s ¥16,922. Resort hotels posted ¥22,524 in August (−9.6%), ¥17,030 in September (−0.3%) and ¥16,073 in October (−1.7%), short of last year in all three months. Their August-to-September drops were 18.8% for ryokan and 24.4% for resorts — in contrast to business hotels’ 6.1% and city hotels’ rise, the height of the summer peak translated directly into the size of the autumn fall.

The change in coverage needs attention here. Ryokan coverage grew from 439 properties in August 2025 to 463 in August 2026, and resort hotels from 131 to 150; the effect of coverage expanding from June 2026 is included in the YoY. Because the metric is median-based, if newly covered properties are priced away from the existing median, YoY moves even when prices do not. So rather than concluding that “rates fell” from ryokan’s −2.9% or resorts’ −1.7%, it is more accurate to read them as “flat to slightly below last year, including composition changes.” Even so, within the same prefecture and with the same calendar tailwinds (the September five-day holiday and October’s five Saturdays), the two limited-service and urban segments rose well above last year while the two leisure segments stayed around last year’s level — and that difference in direction remains even after allowing for composition changes.

Against Four Neighboring Prefectures — September’s Gain Is a Broad Calendar Effect; October’s +9.2% Ranks High Among Neighbors

To check whether the recovery in Shizuoka’s business hotels is specific to the prefecture, we lined up business hotels in four adjacent or nearby prefectures — Kanagawa, Yamanashi, Aichi and Nagano — on the same metric (estimated settled ADR, finalized-vs-finalized YoY). In September all five prefectures were above last year, and Shizuoka’s +7.9% falls between Kanagawa (+6.5%) and Yamanashi (+9.0%) / Nagano (+11.6%). Across all prefectures nationwide, the median September YoY was +7.9%, placing Shizuoka exactly mid-table. September’s gain is more naturally read as a broad calendar effect including the five-day holiday than as demand growth specific to Shizuoka.

Estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent), finalized vs. finalized. N = number of properties in the estimated settled ADR calculation for September 2026. City hotels are excluded from this table because only three properties are covered in Yamanashi. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

The difference shows up in October: Shizuoka’s +9.2% exceeds Kanagawa (+7.3%) and Yamanashi (+6.5%) and is close to Nagano (+9.8%). The August-to-September drop also became shallower than last year in all four prefectures except Aichi (from −16.4% to −10.9% in 2025 to −9.6% to −0.3% in 2026); Shizuoka’s narrowing from 13.3% to 6.1% sits within this broad trend. On top of that, the prefectures that widened their YoY gap further in October were Shizuoka and Kanagawa, while Yamanashi and Nagano narrowed their gains from September — so in terms of sustaining the autumn uplift, Shizuoka ranks near the top among its neighbors. Aichi’s +53.2% in September and +29.6% in October reflect a special factor — the period of the 20th Asian Games (Aichi-Nagoya), held from September 19 to October 4 — and are not used as a yardstick for comparison.

For Revenue Managers Running Business and City Hotels in Shizuoka — Implications and Action Plan

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Finalized-Month YoY

Shizuoka’s finalized September and October were two months in which the segments split in direction: business hotels (+7.9% → +9.2%) and city hotels (+7.8% → +25.5%) recovered from August’s YoY declines, while ryokan (+2.7% → −2.9%) and resort hotels (−0.3% → −1.7%) stayed around last year’s level. Three yardsticks help when applying these results to your own property. The first is the August-to-September drop: business hotels narrowing it from 13.3% last year to 6.1% is the substance of the autumn gain and the benchmark to compare with your own ladder. The second is the nature of the prior-year month: for months where last year was a peak or a trough, as with city hotels’ −22.0% and +25.5%, YoY needs to be re-read in terms of 2026’s level (¥13,500–¥14,600 for August–October). The third is coverage and calendar: ryokan and resort YoY includes the growth in covered properties, and September and October for all segments include the uplift from the five-day holiday and five Saturdays. Only the difference in direction that remains after allowing for these should be taken as a change in the market.

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