We have already confirmed in several articles that October Saturdays are filling up in the seven prefectures covered by the Kyushu Recovery Subsidy (Kyushu Fukko Ouenwari). On its own, however, that does not tell us whether demand rose “because of the subsidy” or simply because “autumn Saturdays rise everywhere.” In this article we use prefecture-level booking curves observed by MetroEngines Research as of October 11, 2026 to line up three groups on the same stay dates and the same lead time (LT): the seven Kyushu prefectures with national support (Group A), five prefectures where the prefecture or a city is running its own lodging discount in October-November (Group B), and six prefectures where no comparable support could be confirmed (Group C). The short answer: estimated Saturday OCC barely differs across the groups (for the Oct 24 stay at LT14, Group A 89.9% vs Group C 88.8%), and the gap only appears on November weekdays (for the Nov 10 stay at LT31, Group A 70.4% vs Group C 64.2%). This is not an article claiming the subsidy caused anything; please read it as a test of whether “prefectures without support are rising just as much.”

How the Three Groups Are Defined: Splitting the Country by Whether a Program Exists

First, the group definitions. Local-government lodging discount coupons vary by municipality in whether they are active, their periods and their funding, and programs reported in the press often end early once the budget is used up. We therefore adopted only programs whose operation could be confirmed on each municipality’s official page (or primary material reproducing an official announcement) as of October 10-11, 2026, and left out anything we could not confirm. Hokkaido’s “Domin-san Irasshai” program had no round covering October-November stays on its official site at that point, so it was excluded from Group B and shown for reference only.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from each municipality’s official website and announcements (confirmed October 10-11, 2026)

Within Group B, Fukushima and Akita cover stays from November onward, so October Saturdays are still outside their programs. In Group B′, Yamaguchi and Shizuoka have a single-city program (Shimonoseki and Ito) rather than a prefecture-wide one, and Shimonoseki even excludes Saturday check-ins. These two prefectures are treated separately from Group B as a group where “support applies to only part of the prefecture’s observed population.” Group C was chosen from prefectures close to the seven Kyushu prefectures in scale and property mix, spread from Tohoku to Shikoku; its observed population is 1,593 properties and 76,965 rooms across six prefectures. Group A has 2,041 properties and 86,356 rooms in seven prefectures, Group B 568 properties and 27,635 rooms in three, and Group B′ 1,022 properties and 39,741 rooms in two, for a total of 5,224 properties and 230,697 rooms as this article’s yardstick (all on a major-booking-site listing basis, observed population for the Oct 24 stay).

Four Saturdays at the Same LT: Excluding the Reference-Only Nov 21 Stay, Group Gaps Stayed Within the 2pt Range

The core of the test is cutting the same stay date at the same LT. As of October 11, the latest observation points are LT7 for the Oct 17 stay, LT14 for Oct 24, LT28 for Nov 7 and LT42 for Nov 21, and every prefecture is read at these cross-sections. Lining up estimated OCC at the latest LT for the four groups gives, for the Oct 17 stay, Group A 86.1%, Group B 86.2%, Group B′ 82.2% and Group C 88.4%, and for the Oct 24 stay, Group A 89.9%, Group B 89.3%, Group B′ 88.1% and Group C 88.8%. The gap between subsidized Kyushu and the six prefectures without confirmed support is only -2.3pt on Oct 17 and +1.1pt on Oct 24. For the Nov 7 stay (LT28), Group A is 82.6% vs Group C 81.7% (+0.9pt), and for Nov 21 (LT42), Group A is 88.8% vs Group C 84.8% (+4.0pt). Kyushu pulls slightly ahead in November, but the differences between prefectures within each group (see below) are far larger.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

The picture does not change when looking at gains. The rise from LT45 to the latest LT for the Oct 24 stay is Group A +14.6pt, Group B +15.0pt, Group B′ +13.9pt and Group C +13.6pt, all four within a 1.4pt spread, and the Oct 17 stay is level as well at Group A +18.3pt and Group C +18.0pt. In other words, for October Saturdays the answer is that “prefectures without support are rising just as much.” Only the Nov 7 stay shows a wider gap in gains, Group A +10.5pt vs Group C +5.3pt, but this mirrors the fact that Group C’s Nov 7 stay was already high at 76.4% at LT45 (Miyagi was near the ceiling at 94.5%), leaving little room to grow.

Overlaying the group-average curves from LT45 to LT14 for the Oct 24 stay, the four lines rise at almost the same slope, and they share the same acceleration of last-minute pickup after LT20. There is no sign that Kyushu alone jumped early; it filled in the same shape as Groups B and C.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Two-Point Readings by Prefecture: Prefecture Differences Exceed Group Differences

The prefecture-level values behind the group averages are shown below for the four Saturdays, from LT45 to the latest LT. Okinawa and Hokkaido (outside the groups) are included for reference.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data. Estimated OCC (%); figures in parentheses are gains from LT45 (pt). Properties/rooms are the observed population for the Oct 24 stay. Kagoshima excludes one property with anomalous inventory. The Nov 21 stay has only four observation points (LT45-42) and is for reference only

Looking prefecture by prefecture, the spread within Group A exceeds the gap between groups. For the Oct 24 stay (LT14), Fukuoka 96.3%, Miyazaki 93.0%, Saga 91.6% and Kumamoto 91.2% exceed 90%, while Kagoshima is at 82.2% and Nagasaki at 86.6%, a 14.1pt range under the same program. Group C is similar: for the Oct 17 stay (LT7), Hiroshima at 95.7% and Ehime at 93.7% are higher than any Kyushu prefecture, while Tochigi remains at 80.5%. Miyagi’s Nov 7 stay was already near sell-out at 94.5% at LT45, showing that some prefectures fill their Saturdays for reasons unrelated to support (large events or group demand). How Miyagi’s Saturdays fill along differently shaped curves for city hotels and business hotels is traced by segment for the October 17, 2026 stay in Miyagi City vs Business Hotels: 29.5pt T-45 OCC Gap Narrows to 4.7pt.

It is also worth checking the Oct 17 stay that was the starting point of this test. At LT45 (observed in early September), the Group A average was 67.8% against 70.5% for Group C, 75.9% for Okinawa and 73.8% for Hokkaido, so Kyushu was not ahead. Within Group A, Miyazaki (58.0%) and Saga (59.5%) started low and posted large gains from there (Miyazaki +23.9pt, Saga +26.2pt), but as a group Kyushu only drew level with Group B (86.2%) at 86.1% by LT7 and did not reach Group C’s 88.4%. How Kyushu’s Saturdays moved against Okinawa and Yamaguchi in the days right after the program was announced is tracked day by day in Kyushu Subsidy: All 7 Prefectures Beat Control on October Saturdays.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Weekday Cut: The Gap Appeared on a November Tuesday

If Saturdays show no difference, where did the subsidy money go? Lining up the Tuesday and Saturday of the same week at the same LT, the picture changes between October and November. Comparing Oct 13 (Tue) and Oct 17 (Sat), both at LT7, the weekend gap (Saturday OCC minus Tuesday OCC) is Group A 11.1pt, Group B 10.2pt, Group B′ 10.1pt and Group C 12.9pt, so Kyushu weekdays are not unusually full. The level for the Oct 13 stay at its latest point (LT3) is also Group A 79.4% vs Group C 82.2% and Group B 82.4%, with Kyushu tied with Group B′ (79.3%) as the lowest. Likely background: Kagoshima’s program started on Oct 14 so the Oct 13 stay was not eligible, and in the other six prefectures bookings opened only in late September, too recently to move weekday demand.

By contrast, comparing Nov 10 (Tue) and Nov 7 (Sat) at LT31, the weekend gap is Group A 10.9pt, Group B 17.6pt, Group B′ 13.1pt and Group C 16.6pt, so only Kyushu keeps the weekday-Saturday gap small. The Nov 10 stay at its latest point (LT31) is Group A 70.4% vs Group C 64.2%, Group B 63.4% and Group B′ 61.4%: the group gap that had all but vanished on Saturdays opens to +6.2pt on weekdays. To sum up, we can say that “over the same period, Kyushu’s November weekdays are filling ahead of the other groups.” Whether that is the effect of the subsidy or demand specific to Kyushu in November (autumn foliage, school trips, events) cannot be separated from this cross-section alone. The question of whether advance bookings for November and December slacken as demand shifts into October is addressed, from a cross-section right after the announcement, in Kyushu Subsidy Starts Oct 1 in 7 Prefectures: Nov Pickup Level with Oct.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data

Looking at the remaining weekday inventory in room counts shows the scale operators have to work with. Remaining rooms for the Nov 10 stay at LT31 are as follows.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data. Tuesday and Saturday are compared at observation points with the same LT. Remaining rooms are based on major-booking-site listed inventory (Kagoshima excludes one property with anomalous inventory)

For the Nov 10 stay, the seven Group A prefectures still have 25,621 rooms left at LT31 (29.7% of a population of 86,210 rooms), and the six Group C prefectures have 27,724 rooms (36.1%). Weekday inventory of 9,024 rooms in Fukuoka, 3,966 in Kagoshima and about 3,000 each in Kumamoto and Oita can be read as room for revenue managers to design around during a subsidy period that runs into mid-to-late December. Saga has the smallest weekend gap (4.2pt), with Saturday at 82.3% and Tuesday at 78.1% at LT31, so weekdays are starting to fill too. Miyazaki, by contrast, has a weekend gap of 19.4pt, Saturday 76.7% vs Tuesday 57.3%, the typical shape in which weekends sell down first.

How to Read This and Implications: Answering “Does Our Prefecture Need Support Too?”

This article can show only three things. First, for October-November Saturdays (excluding the reference-only Nov 21 stay), estimated OCC in subsidized Kyushu and in the six prefectures without confirmed support differs by no more than the 2pt range at the same LT cross-section: “prefectures without support are rising just as much.” Second, on November weekdays Kyushu is +6.2pt above Group C, which has no support, and its weekend gap is the smallest at 10.9pt. Third, the differences between prefectures within a group (14.1pt in Kyushu for the Oct 24 stay, 15.2pt in Group C for the Oct 17 stay) are an order of magnitude larger than the differences between groups, meaning each prefecture’s own demand structure, more than the presence of support, sets the level.

For revenue managers at operators running properties across multiple prefectures, the implication is that it pays to protect rates on Saturdays on the assumption that they will fill regardless of support, and in subsidized prefectures to steer the subsidy toward weekdays. The subsidy discount applies at the same rate on Saturdays and weekdays, but since Saturdays fill to nearly 90% even without support, the discount creates value on weekdays. For tourism officials at local governments and DMOs, designing a lodging discount to “lift Saturday occupancy” makes it hard to stand out from other prefectures; limiting it to weekdays (the Shimonoseki model) or to off-peak months makes it easier to create a visible difference with the same budget. For hotel and ryokan owners outside Kyushu, the very fact that autumn Saturdays fill to the same level without support is a reason to prepare weekday products (multi-night stays, single occupancy, early-booking deals) rather than wait for support.

Finally, some caveats. Estimated OCC in this article is based on how OTA-listed inventory is selling down and excludes direct, group and corporate-contract inventory. Kagoshima was re-aggregated excluding one property with anomalous inventory, but even so the observed population is not every property in each prefecture. The Nov 21 stay has only four observation points (LT45-42) and is for reference only. Oct 10 (Sat) had already passed at the observation time, and Oct 13 (Tue) had a latest point of LT3, so Oct 13 was used only for the weekday comparison. And to repeat: this article claims nothing beyond “rose over the same period.”

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Does this mean the Kyushu Recovery Subsidy had no effect?
A. No, that cannot be concluded. What this article shows is the observation that “estimated Saturday OCC in October-November was at almost the same level and rose by almost the same amount as in prefectures without confirmed support,” and on November weekdays Kyushu is at a higher level. The effect of the discount on rates, guest mix and length of stay, and what Kyushu’s level would have been without support, are not examined in this article.

Q. Why are Hokkaido and Niigata not in Group B?
A. Because we adopted only programs whose round covering October-November stays could be confirmed on an official municipal page as of October 10-11, 2026. Programs we could not confirm were left out of the groups; Hokkaido appears only in the prefecture table, for reference.

Q. How does estimated OCC differ from the Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy rate?
A. Estimated OCC is an estimate calculated from how inventory listed on major booking sites is selling down and excludes direct, group and corporate-contract inventory. The room occupancy rate in the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey is an actual figure based on surveys of properties, with a different definition and population. When discussing monthly results, refer to the Japan Tourism Agency statistics.

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