The finalized September 2026 settled ADR figures are now in for city hotels and business hotels in Kyoto Prefecture. Business hotels (N=327) came in at ¥11,701, just −2.4% below the same month last year (¥11,992, N=319) — a gap 13pt narrower than August's −15.6%. City hotels (N=61), by contrast, landed at ¥20,179, −14.6% YoY versus ¥23,624 (N=58), a gap that widened by 4pt from August's −10.2%. Both segments posted double-digit declines through June–August, but in September they moved in opposite directions. This article lines up finalized-vs-finalized YoY comparisons for January–September to pinpoint where the segment gap emerged, checks booking progress for the autumn-foliage peak (November) using estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory), and sets out the revenue management issues to settle before pricing.

Coverage: Kyoto Prefecture business hotels N=327 and city hotels N=61 (properties covered by the finalized September 2026 settled ADR). The price metric in this article is settled ADR (the estimated transacted price level derived from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of October 27, 2026.

January–September YoY — Business Up in Spring, City Down by Double Digits for Four Straight Months Since June

First, here are finalized-vs-finalized YoY comparisons from January through September 2026. Table 1 shows each month's settled ADR for business and city hotels in Kyoto Prefecture, the finalized figure for the same month a year earlier, and the change. The number of covered properties (N=) varies by month, so it is shown in each cell.

Business hotels started the year with modest declines (January −3.7%, February −3.0%), but all three spring months beat the prior year: March +6.7%, April +1.3% and May +10.5%. The trend turned in June: the gap deepened month by month from −9.8% to −13.0% in July and −15.6% in August, before finally returning to single digits at −2.4% in September. On a simple January–September average, 2026 stands at ¥12,612 versus ¥12,900 in 2025, only −2.2% — a year in which the spring upside offset the summer slump.

City hotels, on the other hand, held roughly flat in some months (February −0.3%, March +2.4%, May +3.7%) but swung widely in the first half (January −8.9%, April −8.1%), and since June have posted four consecutive double-digit declines: June −14.6%, July −16.8%, August −10.2% and September −14.6%. The simple January–September average is ¥21,635 in 2026 versus ¥23,321 in 2025, −7.2% — more than three times the decline for business hotels. The first takeaway from the finalized figures is that the two are different in nature: for business hotels it was a temporary summer trough, while for city hotels it is a downward shift in level that has persisted since early summer. Which property tiers drove the June–August double-digit declines, and how to set price ranges and floors in a double-digit downturn, are covered in Kyoto Settled ADR Jun–Aug 2026: City −16.8%, Business −15.6% YoY.

Figure 1: Kyoto Prefecture business hotel settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent, monthly). 2025 and January–September 2026 are finalized; October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales (dotted line, subject to change). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Figure 2: Kyoto Prefecture city hotel settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent, monthly). 2025 and January–September 2026 are finalized; October–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales (dotted line, subject to change). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Overlaying the years in Figures 1 and 2, the 2026 business hotel line sits above 2025 in March–May, dips below it in June–August, and nearly converges in September. The 2026 city hotel line runs below 2025 all year, and the gap has stayed open especially since June. Since these are values observed in the same prefecture in the same months, yet their position relative to the prior year differs by segment, it is closer to reality to say the segments absorbed demand differently than to lump it together as "Kyoto rates fell." How Kyoto, which was beating the prior year through spring, reversed in June is examined with January–July finalized figures, occupancy and booking progress in Why Kyoto ADR Broke in Early Summer 2026.

Why the Segments Split in September — The Five-Day Holiday and a Shrinking City-to-Business Ratio

A clue to September's segment gap is the daily shape of estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for the month. Kyoto Prefecture business hotels in September 2026 (189–201 properties, 19,544–20,010 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites) averaged 84.8% for the month, with demand concentrated in the five-day holiday from the 19th to the 23rd: Saturday Sep 19 at 95.5%, Sunday Sep 20 at 100.0% (just 2 OTA-listed rooms left out of about 20,000, with 98.3% of properties full — close to a sales stop), Monday Sep 21 (Respect for the Aged Day) at 99.9%, and Tuesday Sep 22 (national holiday) at 92.3%. City hotels (34–37 properties, 4,987–5,084 rooms) averaged 85.3%, with Sunday Sep 20 at 99.8%, Monday Sep 21 at 99.8% and Tuesday Sep 22 at 93.9% — the holiday peak had nearly the same shape in both segments.

Day-of-week averages line up too — business: Saturday 89.6%, Monday 86.7%, Sunday 82.1%; city: Saturday 89.7%, Monday 87.4%, Sunday 85.0% — so there is almost no segment difference on the occupancy side. That the ADR gap narrowed for only one segment suggests the segments differed in how far they could translate the holiday demand into price. Because business hotels have a lower absolute rate level, holiday demand pressure shows up more readily as a narrower YoY gap; for city hotels, the prior-year September level itself (¥23,624) was high, so the same demand peak was not enough to close the gap.

This relationship is easiest to see in the city-to-business ratio. In September 2025, the city figure of ¥23,624 was 1.97x the business figure of ¥11,992; in September 2026, city at ¥20,179 is only 1.72x business at ¥11,701. In August the ratio had actually widened, from 1.85x in 2025 to 1.97x in 2026, so the relative prices of the two segments effectively swapped direction within a single month. For city hotel operators, this is a metric to watch more closely than plain YoY, because it means entering foliage season with a narrower price gap to business hotels.

As a reference line for YoY, here are the September operating results published by listed hotel REITs. Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (いちごホテルリート投資法人, 3463) reported September 2026 results for 25 hotels combined (excluding fully closed properties, etc.) of ADR ¥11,937, occupancy 87.2% and RevPAR ¥10,414, with ADR +16.3% and occupancy +2.0pt YoY (Source: Ichigo Hotel REIT, Monthly Operating Results, September 2026). Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (ジャパン・ホテル・リート投資法人, 8985) reported, for its 29 hotels with variable rent, etc., ADR ¥20,468, occupancy 85.6% and RevPAR ¥17,519, with ADR +2.3% and occupancy −0.6pt YoY (Source: Japan Hotel REIT, Operating Results). Both are nationwide portfolio figures, not limited to Kyoto, and are compiled on a different basis from this article's settled ADR, so we do not compare levels. Still, the contrast — nationwide published results showing ADR flat to up in the same September while Kyoto's finalized figures were negative for both segments — suggests that part of this downturn may reflect Kyoto-specific supply and demand rather than a national trend (although, as Table 4 below shows, city hotels also fell YoY in Tokyo and Hyogo). Our 47-prefecture cross-section of business hotels for the same September, Business Hotel ADR Sep 2026: 44 Prefectures Up YoY, Median +7.9%, also places Kyoto among the three prefectures left on the negative side, and offers a framework for separating calendar effects from underlying strength.

October–November Reference Levels and Foliage-Season Booking Progress — Saturday, November 21 Already Above 90%

Now to the months not yet finalized. Table 2 sets current settled ADR values for October and November 2026 alongside the prior year's finalized figures. The October and November values are estimates based on current sales and are compiled on a different basis from finalized figures, so YoY is not calculated. A direct comparison with finalized figures must wait for month-end finalization; here they are treated only as reference levels.

Checking October occupancy first: estimated OCC for October 1–27, 2026 averaged 93.7% for business hotels (188–199 properties, 18,377–19,462 rooms) and 92.0% for city hotels (37–38 properties, 5,084–5,621 rooms), up from the 84–85% range in September. By day, Saturday Oct 10 reached 99.7% (business) and 99.2% (city), and Wednesday Oct 21 hit 99.1% / 98.2% — near-ceiling days are appearing on weekdays as well as weekends, and in day-of-week averages, business hotels' Wednesday (96.3%) nearly matches Saturday (96.7%). As in September, Sunday (business 90.3%, city 90.0%) and Monday (90.0% / 88.1%) are relatively low.

With that in mind, we check booking progress for late November — the peak of foliage season — using booking curves (observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest reading). Table 3 shows estimated OCC at 45 days out, 30 days out and the latest reading for key November stay dates, by segment. Coverage is 199–200 business hotels (19,411–19,475 rooms) and 38 city hotels (5,621 rooms), both based on listings on major booking sites.

Figure 3: Booking curves for Saturday Nov 21, Sunday Nov 22 and Monday Nov 23 (holiday) (X-axis = days remaining until the stay date, from 45 days out to the latest reading). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The most advanced date is Saturday, November 21: business hotels were already at 93.3% at 45 days out, 98.0% at 30 days out and 98.9% in the latest reading (26 days out). City hotels were at 95.4% / 97.7% / 98.3% — both segments were above 90% at 45 days out, and subsequent gains were limited to 5.6pt for business and 2.9pt for city. The following day, Sunday Nov 22, built up at the same slope from a step lower than Saturday: business 88.3%→94.0%→95.3%, city 92.9%→96.2%→97.1%.

In contrast, Monday Nov 23 (Labor Thanksgiving Day), the last day of the three-day weekend, stands at 76.9% / 82.5% / 83.3% for business (45 days out / 30 days out / latest) and 82.9% / 84.5% / 85.3% for city — still 15.6pt (business) and 13.0pt (city) below Saturday the 21st within the same holiday weekend. Many guests head home before the holiday ends, so thin demand on the final night is a common pattern, and these curves show that the structure holds even in Kyoto during foliage season.

Among non-holiday weekends, Saturday Nov 14 built up 12.2pt from 45 days out to the latest reading for business hotels: 82.8% (45 days out) → 90.3% (30 days out) → 95.0% (latest, 19 days out). This is a usable measured value for how much late demand remains after the 45-day mark on a foliage-season weekend. Saturday Nov 28 shows business 83.2%→89.1% (latest, 33 days out) and city 89.4%→91.7%; Wednesday Nov 25 shows business 85.8%→91.4% (latest, 30 days out) and city 90.0%→91.9% — in late November, weekdays and weekends alike are reaching around 90% by 30 days out.

Comparison With Major Prefectures — Only Kyoto and Osaka Fell YoY for Business Hotels; City Hotels Also Fell in Tokyo and Hyogo

Placing Kyoto's finalized September figures next to other major prefectures, Kyoto's position looks different depending on the segment. Table 4 compares the same finalized September 2026 settled ADR with Tokyo, Osaka, Hyogo, Fukuoka and Hokkaido.

For business hotels, only Kyoto (−2.4%) and Osaka (−34.0%) fell below the prior year among the six prefectures, and Osaka mainly reflects the base effect of last September falling during the Expo. All others were positive — Tokyo +2.2%, Hyogo +1.9%, Hokkaido +8.9%, Fukuoka +9.9% — consistent with this article's reading that Kyoto-specific factors lie behind the business hotel YoY decline.

City hotels, meanwhile, fell YoY in all four major metropolitan prefectures: Kyoto −14.6%, Tokyo −10.3%, Hyogo −7.8% and Osaka −21.8%. Only Fukuoka (+21.9%) and Hokkaido (+0.1%) were positive. The fair reading is that the city hotel rate decline is not unique to Kyoto; rather, Kyoto's decline is among the larger ones within a movement common to big-city city hotels. On the city-to-business ratio, Kyoto (1.97x→1.72x) and Tokyo (2.10x→1.84x) contracted by nearly the same 0.25–0.26x, followed by Hyogo (1.80x→1.63x) and Hokkaido (1.65x→1.52x). The ratio widened only in Osaka (1.24x→1.47x) and Fukuoka (1.53x→1.69x).

Three Scenarios for Finalized November and Rate × Occupancy Sensitivity — How Far Could the Ratio Shrink?

October and November in Table 2 are current estimates, and YoY must wait for finalization. Even so, building a price calendar requires a sense of the range in which finalized figures could land. Table 5 uses finalized November 2025 as the base and estimates the level November 2026 would reach under three different YoY assumptions.

In the downside scenario, where November lands at the same YoY as September, business hotels hold near last year at ¥21,091 while city hotels fall to ¥27,292, shrinking the city-to-business ratio to 1.29x. That is a 0.19x contraction from 1.48x in November 2025 — the case in which September's ratio compression (1.97x→1.72x) continues into foliage season. Even in the upside scenario (finalizing at current estimates), the ratio is 1.44x, below the prior year, so city hotels' relative pricing is likely to sit in a narrower band than last year in November.

To help decide whether to prioritize rate or occupancy, Table 6 shows a RevPAR index for combinations of rate YoY and estimated OCC. Setting a flat YoY rate at 91% occupancy as 100, cutting rate by 5% while holding RevPAR requires adding about 4.8pt of estimated OCC (equivalent to 91%→95.8%). On dates like Saturday Nov 21, already above 90% at 45 days out, there is only 3–6pt of room to add, so buying occupancy with price cuts rarely pays off. Conversely, on dates stuck in the low 80s like Monday Nov 23 (holiday), taking 87% at a −5% rate yields a RevPAR index of 91 — about the same as 91 for a flat rate at 83% — so the occupancy gain offsets the rate concession.

For Revenue Managers of Business and City Hotels in Kyoto Prefecture — Implications and Action Plan

Turning the above into an action plan along a timeline:

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Kyoto's Autumn

In a sentence, finalized September was the month business hotels climbed out of the summer trough back to roughly last year's level, while city hotels' downward shift since June remained unresolved. Here are three yardsticks for decisions ahead.

First, read YoY finalized-vs-finalized and by segment. In the same prefecture and the same September, business −2.4% and city −14.6% mean different things; evaluate your own YoY by its gap to your segment line. Second, track the ratio between segments at fixed intervals. The fact that the city-to-business ratio shrank from 1.97x to 1.72x is a metric both segments' operators can share, marking both the ceiling and the floor of the price gap. Third, foliage-season weekends take shape by progress at 45 days out. A date like Saturday Nov 21, above 90% at 45 days out, and a date like Saturday Nov 14, which builds 12pt by the latest reading, can be priced differently even though both are weekends. Keeping both finalized figures and booking progress at hand, and updating YoY as October and November finalize, is the shortest route to reading Kyoto's autumn reliably.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. What happened to settled ADR for business hotels in Kyoto Prefecture in September 2026?

A. The finalized September 2026 figure was ¥11,701 (N=327 properties), −2.4% from ¥11,992 a year earlier. The YoY gap narrowed by 13pt from −15.6% in August, supported by demand concentrated in the five-day holiday from the 19th to the 23rd.

Q. How long have city hotels in Kyoto Prefecture been below the prior year?

A. Settled ADR YoY was −14.6% in June 2026, −16.8% in July, −10.2% in August and −14.6% in September — four consecutive months of double-digit declines since June. The simple January–September average is also −7.2% YoY, more than three times the decline for business hotels (−2.2%).

Q. Is the city hotel rate decline unique to Kyoto?

A. No. On finalized September 2026 figures, city hotels in major metropolitan areas all fell YoY: Tokyo −10.3%, Hyogo −7.8% and Osaka −21.8% (the prior year fell during the Expo). Kyoto (−14.6%) is among the larger declines. For business hotels, only Kyoto and Osaka fell YoY among the six major prefectures.

Q. How far along are Kyoto hotel bookings for the November 2026 foliage season?

A. As of October 26, 2026, estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) has reached 98.9% (business) and 98.3% (city) for Saturday Nov 21, and 95.3% / 97.1% for Sunday Nov 22. Monday Nov 23 (holiday), the last day of the three-day weekend, is at 83.3% / 85.3%, 13–16pt below Saturday.

Q. Why is YoY not shown for October and November settled ADR?

A. Because the October and November 2026 values are estimates based on current sales and are compiled on a different basis from finalized figures. This article shows them as reference levels (as of October 27, 2026: November business ¥24,716, city ¥35,474), and YoY will be compared finalized-vs-finalized once the months are finalized.

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