Draw a 1km circle around Ueno Station and it contains 85,302 workers, 140,529 residents (2025 estimate), and 135 lodging properties with 11,973 rooms. According to MetroEngines Research, Taito Ward’s estimated settled ADR reached ¥17,900 in October 2026, up 13.2% YoY, and rates keep trending upward ahead of the year-end holidays and the spring season at Ueno Park. Whereas our earlier coverage of the Sensoji 1km and Minowa Station 1km areas focused on supply, this article centers on Ueno Station and evaluates three overlapping location factors — working population, resident population and disaster risk — with the nine-year trend in room stock added as a supporting indicator. We examine where a location with a dual structure of business and leisure demand still has room to grow as an investment target.

Room stock in this article covers lodging properties with 10 or more rooms within a 1,000m radius of Ueno Station (excluding love hotels). “Active” means a selling price was confirmed on major booking sites in the latest three months (September–November 2026). Figures as of November 4, 2026, compiled by MetroEngines Research.

Executive Summary — 12,000 Rooms Where 85,000 Workers Meet 140,000 Residents

To state the conclusion first: the Ueno Station 1km area has conditions well suited to budget/business hotel investment — “a thick daytime population, a still-growing nighttime population, and room rates that sit mid-pack among the 23 wards yet are rising 13.2% year on year.” Only 21.7% of the 85,302 workers are in office-type industries; the remaining roughly 80% work in the commercial cluster — wholesale, retail, food service and services. This is not a Marunouchi-style office district; it signals demand from “commercial business trips and purchasing visits” generated by the wholesale districts of Okachimachi, Ameyoko and Higashi-Ueno. Meanwhile, the resident population is projected to grow from 134,163 in 2020 to 153,032 in 2040 (+14.1%), so the nighttime population is also deepening as the area absorbs the return to central Tokyo.

Reading the location risk, however, requires care. Overlaying the 135 properties within 1km on the National Land Numerical Information flood inundation zones (maximum assumed scale) places 83.1% of rooms inside the zone, and 7.5% (902 rooms) in the 3–5m inundation band. A two-tier structure — properties on the plateau by Ueno Park are outside the zone, while those on the low-lying shitamachi side east of Showa-dori are inside — shapes both room placement and the assumptions for BCP investment. Below we test the numbers in order: employment, residents, transport, disaster risk, supply, rates and investment metrics.

Workers × Residents — “Commercial-Cluster” Business Demand with Only 20% Office Jobs, and a Nighttime Population Up 14% by 2040

Start with employment. Cutting the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications / METI “Economic Census for Business Activity (2021)” by the small-area boundaries of the 2020 Census, 6,835 establishments and 85,302 workers are located within a 1km radius of Ueno Station. Of these, 18,549 workers — just 21.7% — are in office-type industries (information and communications, finance, real estate, professional services, etc.). The figures suggest that Ueno’s business demand is supported less by “business trips by office workers” than by “visits tied to retail, food service and the wholesale district.” Unlike office districts, where weekday business demand is concentrated Monday to Thursday, retail and wholesale trade areas keep drawing visitors on weekends, so day-of-week swings tend to even out — a tailwind for business hotel occupancy.

Next, residents. Aggregating MLIT’s National Land Numerical Information 250m-mesh future population projections (2024 projection by the National Policy Bureau) over 103 meshes within a 1.5km radius, the resident population keeps rising — 134,163 in 2020, 140,529 in 2025 and 153,032 in 2040 — and is projected to hold at the current level even in 2070 (152,851). The 2025 age mix is 70.5% working-age and 20.1% elderly, younger than the average aging rate for Tokyo’s ward area. Residents are not hotel guests themselves, but they are the base for “stays generated by residents” — weddings, funerals, homecomings and visits to friends — and areas with a growing population support the floor in the off-season. Note that these figures are census-based resident population, not daytime or transit population.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from MLIT National Land Numerical Information (future population projections by 250m mesh, 2024 National Policy Bureau projection)

At the mesh level, the resident population is thickest east of the station (Higashi-Ueno, Kita-Ueno, Shitaya) and to the south (around the borders of Ueno, Taito and Higashi-Ueno), while the west to northwest — occupied by Ueno Park and the station precinct — has almost no residents. Hotel locations follow this distribution, concentrating in the commercial districts to the east and south where population is dense.

Source: MLIT National Land Numerical Information (future population projections by 250m mesh, 2024 National Policy Bureau projection) (resident population, not visitor population)

Transport, Zoning and Land Prices — 170,000 Daily Boardings, 600% FAR Commercial Zoning, Double-Digit Land Price Growth

According to JR East, Ueno Station averaged 170,042 boardings per day in FY2024 (104.6% of the previous year), ranking 13th in the company’s network. Tohoku Shinkansen boardings at Ueno also grew to 12,622 per day (108.9%). The station’s role as Tokyo’s “northern gateway,” said to have faded after the Shinkansen extension to Tokyo Station and the opening of the Ueno-Tokyo Line, appears to be recovering judging by Shinkansen ridership. Beyond JR, the Tokyo Metro Ginza and Hibiya lines and the Keisei Main Line serve the area, and direct access to both Haneda and Narita airports without transfers is a key criterion for its value as a base for inbound travelers.

In terms of zoning, the MLIT Real Estate Information Library designates the area around Ueno Station as a commercial zone (floor area ratio 600%, building coverage ratio 80%), and 130 of the 135 lodging properties within 1km are in commercial zones. The remaining five are in residential zones west of Ueno Park. A 600% FAR is what makes it possible for a limited-service hotel to put up a 10-plus-story guestroom building even on a small plot.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from the MLIT Real Estate Information Library (Official Land Price Publication, 2026)

Land prices differ sharply between the east and west of the station. The southern entertainment district stands out — the Ueno-Hirokoji benchmark site is ¥13.6M/㎡ (+10.6% YoY) and Ueno 6-chome near Naka-Okachimachi is ¥8.74M/㎡ (+12.1%) — whereas Higashi-Ueno 2-chome across Showa-dori is ¥4.70M/㎡ (+14.4%), Ueno 7-chome north of the station ¥2.48M/㎡ (+19.2%), and Kita-Ueno 2-chome ¥1.05M/㎡ (+20.7%). The farther east and north from the station, the lower the price level and the higher the growth rate. The implication for hotel sites is clear: east and north of the station, 5–10 minutes’ walk away, land is still one-half to one-fifth the price of the entertainment district, and as the growth rates show, the market is moving to close that gap. The Prefectural Land Price Survey as of July 1, 2026 confirms the same pattern, with Higashi-Ueno 3-chome at ¥3.46M/㎡ (+15.3%) and Ueno 6-chome at ¥13.8M/㎡ (+12.2%).

On redevelopment, the “Higashi-Ueno 4-chome A-1 District Redevelopment Preparatory Association” was established on March 26, 2024 to study an area of about 1.0ha near the intersection of Showa-dori and Asakusa-dori, with Tokyo Metro and Obayashi Corporation selected as business partners. Completion is targeted for the mid-2030s, but Tokyo Metro says specific facility plans have not been decided, and whether a hotel use will be included has not been announced. In this article we note it only as a sign that land use east of the station has begun to move.

Disaster Risk — 16.9% on the Plateau, 83.1% on the Lowland, 902 Rooms in the 3–5m Band

The core of this location assessment is a topographic fact: the station sits on the boundary between the Ueno plateau and the shitamachi lowland. Overlaying the 135 properties / 11,973 rooms within 1km on the National Land Numerical Information flood inundation zones (maximum assumed scale; the Kanda, Sumida and Arakawa rivers combined, using the deepest band), 21 properties / 2,025 rooms (16.9% of rooms) are outside the zone and 114 properties / 9,948 rooms (83.1%) are inside it. Within the zone, 5 properties / 924 rooms (7.7%) are in the under-0.5m band, 87 properties / 8,122 rooms (67.8%) in the 0.5–3m band, and 22 properties / 902 rooms (7.5%) in the 3–5m band.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting by overlaying the locations of 135 lodging properties on MLIT National Land Numerical Information (flood inundation zones, maximum assumed scale)

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from MLIT National Land Numerical Information (flood inundation zones)

For storm surge, applying the same method to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s maximum-scale storm surge inundation zones (assuming a typhoon of Muroto Typhoon class), 40 properties / 2,144 rooms (17.9% of rooms) fall inside the zone, and 33 properties / 1,944 rooms of those are in the under-0.3m band. Compared with river flooding, storm surge affects only part of the east side and the depths are shallow. By landform classification (liquefaction tendency), 89 properties / 7,370 rooms (61.6%) stand on “delta / coastal lowland (prone to liquefaction),” 41 properties / 4,016 rooms (33.5%) on “sandbars / gravel bars (somewhat prone),” and 5 properties / 587 rooms (4.9%) on “loam plateau (resistant).” Ueno Station’s hotel cluster is weighted toward the lowland in terms of landform as well. Across the Sumida River, we previously contrasted this with the Koto 5 wards, where 79% of hotel rooms are in flood inundation zones and land prices relative to ADR are about half of Taito Ward’s, which provides a side-by-side reference for evaluating lowland locations.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (locations and room counts of 135 lodging properties) / MLIT National Land Numerical Information (flood and storm surge inundation zones). Circle size = rooms; color = flood inundation depth band

These figures are zones that assume the maximum-scale external force; the inundation area of more probable medium-scale floods is narrower. The assessment also overlays each property’s representative point on the zone map and does not consider building foundation height or ground-floor use. Translated into investment decisions, the issues are: in the 0.5–3m band, which floor houses the substation equipment, emergency power and elevator machine rooms, and flood barriers for ground-floor retail units; in the 3–5m band, designs that put floors up to the second story to non-guestroom uses. The BCP investment cost range we outlined in “How Deep Would Station-Front Hotels Flood?” (tens of thousands to a little over ¥100,000 per room) applies directly to lowland properties in this area. Because the Ueno plateau side outside the zone accounts for only 16.9% of rooms, properties that can market themselves as “outside the projected flood zone” are scarce and may gain an edge under corporate travel policies and in accommodation arrangements by MICE organizers.

Nine-Year Room Stock Trend (Supporting Indicator) — 6,824 to 10,429 Rooms at Properties with Known Opening Years, +52.8%

After location conditions, we look at the supply trend as a supporting indicator. Among lodging properties within 1km whose opening year can be confirmed, cumulative rooms grew from 65 properties / 6,824 rooms at the end of 2017 to 109 properties / 10,429 rooms in 2026, up 52.8%. Nine properties / 311 rooms with unknown opening years are excluded from the trend and treated as existing stock. Total listed stock as of November 2026 is 135 properties / 11,973 rooms, of which 84 properties / 8,321 rooms are active, with a selling price confirmed in the latest three months.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (based on OTA listings; N=109 properties with known opening years, as of November 2026)

The peak increase was +1,033 rooms in 2017–2018, and since then net additions of roughly 200–500 rooms a year have continued, except in 2023 (+96 rooms). In 2026, APA Hotel <Keisei Ueno Ekimae Minami> (アパホテル〈京成上野駅前南〉; 342 rooms, with a free large bath and open-air bath for guests on the top floor), the eighth APA in the Ueno area, opened in August, joined by smaller properties such as GRAND MONday Ueno Okachimachi (57 rooms) and TABI Ueno (35 rooms). Major booking sites list KOKO HOTEL Residence Kita-Ueno (39 rooms) as opening in 2027. MLIT’s Building Starts / building permit statistics show several hotel projects in Taito Ward, such as one in Asakusa 1-chome (40 rooms, scheduled for completion in August 2027), but no new project of 50 rooms or more is currently visible within 1km of Ueno Station. Because building confirmation applications are filed one to two years before opening, this count should be read as a lower bound that will rise.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (as of November 2026). “Active” = properties with a selling price confirmed on major booking sites in the latest three months

By type, business hotels account for 84 properties / 8,351 rooms — 70% of rooms — with a high active share of 67 properties / 7,627 rooms. In contrast, capsule hotels (1,880 rooms) and hostels/dormitories (1,295 rooms) have few active properties relative to listings, which could reflect either a focus on channels other than major booking sites or membership sales, or operations that restrict sellable inventory. By size, the 101–200 room class is largest at 4,002 rooms; the standard size of limited-service chains forms the core of Ueno’s supply. By opening decade, the 2010s account for 43 properties / 3,964 rooms and the 2020s for 38 properties / 3,375 rooms, so just over 60% of current rooms are relatively new stock built within the last 15 years.

Rates and Occupancy — Taito Ward October Estimated Settled ADR ¥17,900, +13.2% YoY

Tracking Taito Ward with MetroEngines Research’s estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, median), October 2026 came in at ¥17,900 (N=176), up 13.2% from ¥15,800 a year earlier. In the same month, Tokyo business hotels were at ¥17,500 (N=913, +14.0% YoY) and city hotels at ¥31,700 (N=109, −0.7% YoY), so Taito Ward sits slightly above the Tokyo business hotel median, while its growth rate is slightly below that of Tokyo business hotels (+14.0%). Rates climbed to ¥18,500 in spring (April 2026) and fell to ¥11,600 in August; this seasonal amplitude is the waveform of a tourist destination whose demand is driven by cherry blossoms and autumn leaves in Ueno Park and special exhibitions at its museums.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (Taito Ward, around N=176 properties; November 2026 onward and 2027 are estimates based on listed prices at the time of research)

The dotted line from November 2026 onward shows levels estimated from selling prices listed on major booking sites at the time of research, and these will shift as check-in dates approach. Even so, the estimates — in the ¥19,000 range for November and in the ¥19,000 range for March 2027 — are tracking above the same months of the previous year, pointing to upward rate momentum heading into the year-end holidays and spring.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (Tokyo 23 wards; the top 12 by level among the 16 wards with 10 or more properties with a calculable estimated settled ADR)

Among the 23 wards, Taito ranks 9th by level, but with N=176 it is the ward with the largest number of properties for which an estimated settled ADR can be calculated, making its median highly stable. It is mid-pack compared with wards such as Shibuya, Chuo and Minato with rates in the ¥20,000–¥30,000 range, but its +13.2% growth outpaces Chuo (+11.0%) and Chiyoda (+5.9%). The pattern of lower-priced wards growing faster typically appears when lodging demand spreads from the central core to surrounding wards. The rate-band structure that gives Taito Ward the most properties of any of the 23 wards is broken down in Why Taito Ward Has Tokyo’s Most Hotels.

Occupancy also points to tight supply and demand. Tokyo’s estimated occupancy based on OTA-listed inventory was 95.8% for business hotels in October 2026 (555 properties / 79,539 rooms, based on major booking site listings) and 95.0% for city hotels (52 properties / 16,054 rooms, same basis), up from September’s 90.3% for business hotels (539 properties / 78,439 rooms) and 90.0% for city hotels (54 properties / 17,294 rooms) heading into the autumn peak. These are estimates based on how OTA inventory is being sold and differ from each property’s actual overall occupancy.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (business: 532 properties / 78,000 rooms; city: 53 properties / 16,128 rooms; both based on major booking site listings; average of 30 stay dates)

Following the booking curve for November stays from 45 days to 1 day of lead time, business hotels sold through from 63.0% at LT45 to 89.1% at LT1, and city hotels from 74.4% to 89.3%. City hotels reach high levels early, whereas business hotels build in the final stretch from LT20 onward, consistent with corporate travel being confirmed at short notice. In a location like Ueno, where commercial visits and tourism overlap, managing separately the pricing that captures last-minute corporate demand and the ceiling price for tourism demand that fills early leads to higher rates.

Investment Metrics — 7 REIT-Owned Properties Acquired at ¥9.77M–¥39.39M per Room; Newer Properties Earn +26% Higher Rates

Within 1km of Ueno Station, listed REITs own 7 lodging properties with 973 rooms (cross-checked against ownership data based on each investment corporation’s disclosures, as of November 2026). Total acquisition price is ¥23,713 million, ranging from ¥9.77 million to ¥39.39 million per room. The properties are three acquired by Invincible Investment Corporation in 2014–2018 (Hotel MyStays Ueno East, Ueno Iriyaguchi and Ueno Inaricho) plus Super Hotel JR Ueno Iriyaguchi; Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation’s Candeo Hotels Ueno Park and Washington Hotel R&B Ueno-Hirokoji; and MIRAI Corporation’s KOKO HOTEL Ueno Ekimae. Japan Hotel REIT does not disclose acquisition dates by property, so the acquisition date column is left blank.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting based on each investment corporation’s portfolio list (IR) (ownership data based on each corporation’s disclosures, as of November 2026; N=7 properties)

Looking at the three Invincible Investment Corporation properties whose operating results are disclosed individually, September 2026 occupancy was 93.9% at Hotel MyStays Ueno East (ADR ¥11,938), 91.9% at Ueno Iriyaguchi (ADR ¥12,014) and 94.9% at Ueno Inaricho (ADR ¥9,548). All exceed the 85.2% occupancy of the REIT’s 101 domestic hotels (September 2026 actual; ADR ¥15,461; ADR +7.6% YoY; occupancy −0.6pt). Their rates are below the portfolio average, but the depth of demand that sustains occupancy in the 90% range is characteristic of business hotel sites on Ueno’s lowland side, suggesting that growth potential remains on the rate side. ADRs disclosed by REITs are shown excluding consumption tax, and the estimated settled ADR in this article is likewise on a tax-exclusive equivalent basis.

So which size and rate bands have headroom? For the 67 active business hotels (7,627 rooms), we take the median estimated settled ADR for May–October 2026 and combine it with room count to map their positioning. The median across the 67 properties is ¥13,100; weighted by rooms it is about ¥16,500.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (N=67 properties. Circle size = number of months with a calculable rate. Property names not shown)

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (active business hotels, N=67 properties)

By opening decade, the median for the 20 properties opened in the 2020s is ¥14,400 versus ¥11,500 for the 16 opened in the 1990s or earlier, so newer properties earn a rate premium of about +25.6%. By size, the 101–200 room class is highest at ¥16,400, while properties with 50 rooms or fewer stay at ¥11,100. In Ueno, where just over 60% of existing stock is less than 15 years old, the remaining group of properties opened in the 1980s–90s has room to capture this premium through renovation or rebranding, positioning them as acquisition and value-add targets.

Quick Estimate — New-Build Replacement Cost of About ¥38M per Room vs. Acquisitions at ¥9.77M–¥39.39M per Room

To put investments on a common yardstick, we estimate the per-room cost of building a new limited-service hotel along Showa-dori east of the station (Higashi-Ueno 2-chome; official land price ¥4.70M/㎡; FAR 600%). Assuming 25㎡ of gross floor area per room (15–18㎡ guestroom plus common areas), the required land is 25 ÷ 6.0 = about 4.2㎡, for a land cost of about ¥19.58 million. Applying the 2025 steel-frame construction cost of ¥2.405 million per tsubo (based on MLIT’s Building Starts Statistics, compiled by archi-book) gives about ¥18.19 million in construction cost, for a total of about ¥37.77 million per room. Most of the 7 REIT-owned properties’ per-room acquisition prices of ¥9.77M–¥39.39M sit below this replacement cost, showing that buying existing assets keeps a price advantage over building new.

Source: Estimates by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (ADR = Taito Ward estimated settled ADR for October 2026; 85% occupancy references Invincible Investment Corporation’s domestic hotel actual of 85.2%; the 35% GOP margin adjusts the same REIT’s disclosed 38.9% [FY ended December 2024, 91 properties] to a conservative level for the early years after opening)

The base-case yield on replacement cost is 5.1%; it falls to 4.6% if ADR drops 10% and to 4.8% if occupancy drops 5pt. With land prices rising at double-digit rates and construction costs staying high, new-build yields are driven by the weight of land cost, and seeking a site toward Kita-Ueno (¥1.05M/㎡), farther from the station, would cut land cost by more than half. Rising construction costs also work to restrain new supply, which is an upside factor for existing properties as competitive pressure eases. Note that this is a simplified estimate; actual investment decisions require a detailed feasibility study.

Three Scenarios — Applying the October Level All Year Is the Optimistic Case; the 12-Month Average Yields 4.2%

The base case in the table above applies Taito Ward’s October 2026 estimated settled ADR (¥17,886) as the full-year rate. October is the second-highest-rate month after April (¥18,516); the simple average of the 12 monthly values (medians) from November 2025 to October 2026 is ¥14,624, and the lowest month, August, is ¥11,579. Because the 12-month average is closer to reality as a yardstick for annual revenue, we recalculated with it as the middle case, the October level holding all year as the optimistic case, and a case where rates fall 10% below the 12-month average and occupancy drops to 80% as the pessimistic case.

Source: Estimates by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (ADR = Taito Ward estimated settled ADR, tax-exclusive equivalent. The 12-month average is the simple average of monthly medians from November 2025 to October 2026, with N=161–177 properties each month. Replacement cost of ¥37.77M per room and 35% GOP margin as in the table above)

The middle case’s 4.2% is 0.9pt lower than the 5.1% base case above. In Ueno, where seasonal rate swings are large, estimating a full year from peak-month rates overstates the yield by nearly 1pt. On the other hand, Taito Ward rates were up 13.2% YoY in October 2026, and if that growth spreads across the year, the 12-month average will approach the optimistic-case level.

Two-Way Sensitivity of ADR × Occupancy — A 5% Yield Requires RevPAR of About ¥14,800

Expanding the combinations of rate and occupancy to a 5×5 grid, the yield on replacement cost exceeds 5% only in the lower-right of the table. Assuming ¥37.77M per room and a 35% GOP margin, a 5% yield requires RevPAR (ADR × occupancy) of about ¥14,800, and a 4% yield about ¥11,800. At the 12-month average ADR of ¥14,624 the yield stays at 4.7% even at 95% occupancy; reaching 5% requires a full-year ADR of ¥16,000 with 95% occupancy, or the October-level ADR of ¥17,886 with 85% occupancy. To aim for over 5% with a new build, the prerequisite is either lowering the replacement cost itself by seeking a site on the cheaper Kita-Ueno side, or securing year-round rates on par with the newer 101–200 room properties that earn a median of ¥16,400.

Source: Estimates by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (yield = ADR × occupancy × 365 days × 35% GOP margin ÷ replacement cost of ¥37.77M per room. Blue = 5.0% or higher)

Investment Summary — Three Directions for Capturing Dual Business × Leisure Demand

Taken together, the investment opportunities within 1km of Ueno Station fall into three directions. First, a “value-add” play: acquire existing business hotels opened in the 1980s–90s in the under-¥15,000 band and narrow the rate gap with newer properties through renovation and rebranding. The core is the ability to buy in below replacement cost. Second, a “scale × rate” play: bring large upper-midscale hotels, new-build or converted, into the thinly supplied 201+ rooms × ¥20,000+ band, with Higashi-Ueno and Kita-Ueno — where land east of Showa-dori is a third or less of entertainment-district prices — as candidate locations. Third, refine properties on the plateau side outside the projected flood zone, which hold only 16.9% of rooms, using “outside the flood zone” as a selling point for corporate contracts and MICE demand. In every case, the dual demand structure — 85,000 workers and 140,000 residents overlapping within the same 1km — underpins occupancy better than locations dependent on a single demand source, and that is the rationale for choosing Ueno.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. How many hotel rooms are there within 1km of Ueno Station?

A. As of November 2026, 135 lodging properties with 10 or more rooms are listed, totaling 11,973 rooms; 84 properties with 8,321 rooms are active, with a selling price confirmed in the latest three months. Among properties with known opening years, cumulative rooms rose 52.8%, from 6,824 in 2017 to 10,429 in 2026.

Q. Are hotel rates in Taito Ward rising?

A. MetroEngines Research’s estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, median) was ¥17,900 in October 2026, up 13.2% YoY. Among Tokyo’s 23 wards it ranks 9th by level, and its growth rate exceeds that of Chuo and Chiyoda wards.

Q. Are Ueno’s hotels inside projected flood inundation zones?

A. Overlaying the 135 properties within 1km on the maximum-scale flood inundation zones (Kanda, Sumida and Arakawa rivers), 83.1% of rooms are inside the zone and 16.9% outside. The plateau by Ueno Park is outside the zone; the lowland east of Showa-dori is mostly in the 0.5–3m band, with a 3–5m band toward Inaricho and Matsugaya. The area of more probable medium-scale floods is narrower, and building foundation height is not considered.