Two years and five months have passed since the Noto Peninsula Earthquake. As of April 1, 2026, the Wakura Onsen Ryokan Cooperative has seen its membership decline from 20 to 19 inns, with only 9 currently back in operation. Meanwhile, recovery has entered a new phase: Kagaya New Wing (designed by Kengo Kuma, approximately 50 rooms, all with ocean views) is scheduled to open in winter 2026, and Okudaya plans to restart with a rebuilt facility in July 2026.

Unlike our existing article Wakura Onsen Noto Recovery Hotel Investment 2026: Hokuriku Polarization (investment perspective), this article examines the critical point of Noto tourism recovery in summer 2026 from a three-axis view: summer booking pace × benchmark against other onsen destinations × seawall recovery policy ROI. We compare the sales status of the 9 reopened Wakura Onsen properties side-by-side with Kaga Onsen Village, Notojima, Hakui, Wajima, and Noto Town, and quantify the cost-effectiveness of the “Regional Tourism Revitalization Support Plan for Wakura Onsen Integrated with Seawall Recovery,” formulated by the government in March 2025.

Where Wakura Onsen Stands Today — 9 Reopened, 19 Cooperative Members

Before the January 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, the Wakura Onsen Ryokan Cooperative had 21 member inns, but severe damage forced some to withdraw. As of April 1, 2026, membership stands at 19, with 9 currently in normal or partial operation (Wakura Onsen Tourism Association announcement). Kagaya Main Building (232 rooms), the area’s flagship large-scale facility, began demolition of its main building in March 2026; its new wing (designed by Kengo Kuma, approximately 50 rooms, 5 stories, all with ocean views) is scheduled to open in winter 2026 (Hokkoku Shimbun, December 2024). Tadaya (60 rooms) plans to complete demolition in summer 2027 and resume operations in April 2028, while Okudaya is set to reopen in early July 2026 as the first post-earthquake rebuild (Hokkoku Shimbun, May 2026).

This article’s analysis focuses on the five major Wakura Onsen properties whose sales can be observed on OTAs during summer 2026 (July–August): Nihon no Yado Notoraku, TAOYA Wakura, Hotel Kaibo, Hamazuru, and Hanagoyomi. Kagaya Main Building, Kinpaso, and Yadomoriya Jyuen show almost no observable OTA sales, reflecting their demolition or renovation status. For an initial analysis of the Wakura and Wajima recovery phases at the 16-month mark post-earthquake and 2026 summer booking trends, see Noto Earthquake +16 Months: Wakura Onsen Recovery & Summer 2026 ADR.

Onsen Destination Benchmark — The Supply-Demand Gap with Kaga Onsen Village

We compare the July–August 2026 sales status of Wakura Onsen against benchmark Hokuriku onsen destinations. Kaga Onsen Village (13 combined properties across Yamashiro, Yamanaka, Awazu, and Katayamazu) shows an average ADR of ¥49,100 and a sellout rate of 22.6%. By contrast, Wakura Onsen’s 5 properties show an average ADR of ¥54,800 and a sellout rate of 18.4%. Wakura’s ADR is about 12% higher than Kaga Onsen Village’s, but the sellout rate is about 4 points lower. Noto Town (Hyakurakuso and 2 other middle-Noto properties) sees its average ADR rise to ¥127,200, due to a high proportion of remote-location luxury ryokans, but it lacks the scale of an onsen district like Wakura.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (OTA-published price data, July–August 2026, properties with 10+ rooms per area)

What stands out is the combination of ADR and sellout rate. Wakura Onsen has a higher unit price than Kaga Onsen Village, yet a lower sellout rate. This reflects the structural pattern where properties with higher ADR see bookings fill in later (smaller last-minute demand), combined with the possibility that post-earthquake reputational concerns and access challenges (level differences and uplift on the Noto Satoyama Kaido, reduced JR Nanao Line service) are “delaying tourists’ bookings somewhat.” Meanwhile, Kaga Onsen Village hosts many mid-price resorts like the Oedo Onsen Monogatari chain, where summer family demand fills bookings early. The divergence between “popular onsen rankings” and actual lodging satisfaction is also examined from a different angle in Kusatsu, Beppu, Hakone: Popular Onsen Rankings vs. Real Guest Satisfaction — 383 Properties, 955K Reviews Analyzed, which offers a useful reference for benchmark comparison.

Day-of-Week Booking Curve — Demand Concentration on Saturdays

Breaking down the July–August 2026 sales data by day of week, both Wakura Onsen and Kaga Onsen Village set Saturday ADR about 12–19% higher than other days, while Saturday’s sellout rate is lower than Sunday’s and Monday’s. This means “Saturday bookings tend to come in later” — i.e., as of the survey snapshot (May 15), there is still room for Saturday bookings to be added in the run-up to summer.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (OTA-published price data, July–August 2026, day-of-week averages)

A distinctive feature of Wakura Onsen is that the sellout rate on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday (multi-night-stay days) is relatively low at 15–17%. In Kaga Onsen Village, Wednesday–Friday hovers around 23%, suggesting Wakura is not fully capturing multi-night-stay demand. This points to lingering challenges with Shinkansen access (about 1 hour by limited express from Kanazawa Station) and secondary transit, and indicates that tourism content designed to extend stays — such as the “Wakura Onsen Recovery Tour” (running March–November 2026, participation fee ¥5,000) — has not yet fully converted into bookings (Wakura Onsen Tourism Association announcement). For a comparison of ADR across the four cities of Fukui, Tsuruga, Komatsu, and Kanazawa at the three-year mark of the Hokuriku Shinkansen Tsuruga extension and the impact of secondary-transit development on demand distribution, see Hokuriku Shinkansen Year 3: Fukui, Tsuruga, Komatsu & Kanazawa ADR Comparison.

Monthly ADR Trend — Approximately +10% Unit-Price Recovery YoY

Comparing the monthly ADR of Wakura Onsen’s 5 reopened properties against 2025, the summer months (July–August) have recovered to a +12% level versus 2025. August 2025 ADR of ¥52,800 rose to ¥54,900 in August 2026. This includes effects from individual properties moving upmarket (TAOYA Wakura’s rebranding, Hotel Kaibo’s post-renovation reopening), but reflects structural change that differs from a simple unwinding of the earthquake penalty.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (OTA-published price data, monthly averages for 5 reopened properties, January 2025 – December 2026)

At the same time, the rapid rise in monthly sellout rates from April 2026 onward (April 35.7%, May 38.2%) reflects short-term supply-demand tightness from concentrated Golden Week and long-weekend demand. The rate drops to 17% in August and 13% in September, confirming sales headroom remains after peak season. How other high-ADR onsen ryokans outside Wakura are moving prices during bonus season is examined in cross-section in our cross-section analysis of 5 onsen destinations.

Seawall Recovery Policy and the Regional Tourism Revitalization Support Plan ROI

In March 2025, the Japan Tourism Agency and the Ports and Harbours Bureau of MLIT formulated the “Regional Tourism Revitalization Support Plan for Wakura Onsen Integrated with Seawall Recovery.” Public-funded recovery procedures for privately owned seawalls along Nanao Bay that collapsed in the earthquake were completed in December 2024, and full-scale recovery construction began on December 20, 2024. Completion is targeted within fiscal 2026 (by the end of March 2027) (Japan Tourism Agency announcement). In parallel, the Japan Tourism Agency is integrally advancing information dissemination support for reopened properties, recovery-tour support, and subsidies for secondary-transit development.

We estimate the economic impact of this policy using Wakura Onsen sales data. The combined room count of the 5 reopened properties is 378 rooms. If the sellout rate were to rise from the current 18.4% to Kaga Onsen Village’s 22.6%, the number of sold rooms over the 62-day summer period would increase from approximately 15,900 to approximately 19,500 — an increase of about 3,600 rooms. Multiplied by the average ADR of ¥54,800, this implies approximately ¥197 million in additional revenue creation. This serves as one indicator for estimating the policy’s annual ROI.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (OTA-published price data, 62-day summer simulation)

That said, the true significance of seawall recovery extends beyond short-term tourism revenue. The “Creative Recovery Vision” announced by the Wakura Onsen Ryokan Cooperative in March 2025 (link) sets out eight tourism zones for 2040 and articulates long-term regional value regeneration, including creating engagement populations and town-design enabling strolls in yukata. Seawall recovery is a precondition for new supply such as the Kagaya New Wing, Tadaya’s new building, and Okudaya’s rebuild; with the staged opening of new buildings during 2027–2028, the overall attractiveness of the area will be rebuilt.

“Post-Reopening Quality” as Seen in Reviews — Service and Meals Evaluation

Aggregating guest reviews for the 5 reopened properties by category (MetroEngines Research & Consulting, N=11,746 reviews), Hotel Kaibo has the highest rating at 4.54, TAOYA Wakura at 4.22, and Hanagoyomi at 4.12, with Wakura’s major properties maintaining high marks above 4.0 overall. The “dinner” category in particular sees Kaibo at 4.54 and Hamazuru at 4.30, with the regional strength of ryokan cuisine being highly evaluated.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (aggregated OTA guest reviews, 5 reopened properties, cumulative N=11,746)

What deserves attention is the review trend for properties that reopened after an earthquake-related closure. Hotel Kaibo had essentially zero review posts during the roughly 20-month period from March 2024 to October 2025, marking its closure period. After reopening in November 2025, monthly scores have moved at a higher level of 4.5–5.0 than before. This may include satisfaction bias because post-recovery guests skew toward repeaters and those visiting to support Noto, so it cannot be stated definitively. Nevertheless, it is quantitatively confirmed that facility renovations and service quality have been maintained.

The Critical Point of Summer 2026 — Simultaneous Activation of the Recovery Tour and Kagaya New Wing

Summer 2026 marks the convergence of multiple milestones in Wakura Onsen’s recovery. First, the “Wakura Onsen Recovery Tour” (participation fee ¥5,000, guided 90 minutes, with souvenirs and meal coupons worth ¥1,000), running from March 1 to November 30, 2026, is active and is expected to pull up bookings in peak summer. Second, with Okudaya (the first post-earthquake rebuild) reopening in July and preparations for the Kagaya New Wing’s winter opening progressing, attention is rising as a precursor to new supply. Third, progress on seawall recovery construction reaches its final phase in the second half of fiscal 2026, and the area’s landscape restoration will begin to be felt by tourists.

On the other hand, access recovery from the Noto Peninsula Earthquake’s impact is not yet complete. Level-difference correction and uplift repair continue on the Noto Satoyama Kaido, and JR Nanao Line service remains reduced. The roughly 4-point booking-pace gap between Wakura Onsen and Kaga Onsen Village reflects, in part, these structural factors. Whether the Japan Tourism Agency and MLIT’s support plan can accelerate access improvement and information dissemination will be the key from summer 2026 onward. As another analysis of summer-2026-peak booking pace from a different area, Mt. Fuji 2026: ¥4,000 Climbing Fee + Lodging Tax Double-Tax Structure addresses the impact of policy costs (climbing fees and lodging taxes) on demand, allowing comparison with Wakura’s policy-ROI discussion.

Summary — Recovery Progress through a Three-Axis Lens

This article examined Wakura Onsen’s summer 2026 recovery through three axes: summer booking pace × benchmark against other onsen destinations × seawall recovery policy ROI. Three key conclusions follow.

First, Wakura Onsen’s sales pace is approximately 4 points behind Kaga Onsen Village, yet its ADR level (¥54,800) has recovered to near pre-earthquake levels on a unit-price basis. The earthquake penalty persists as a “delay in booking timing.” Second, the low sellout rates on days other than Saturday (especially Wednesday–Friday) indicate that multi-night-stay demand is not being fully captured, and that the effects of secondary-transit development and stay-extension tourism content have not yet been sufficiently reflected in bookings. Third, if the sellout rate were to improve to Kaga Onsen Village’s level, the short-term ROI of the seawall recovery and regional tourism revitalization support plan would amount to approximately ¥197 million in additional revenue creation over the 62-day summer period. The true significance lies in long-term regional value regeneration, but the short-term impact is also quantifiable at a meaningful scale.

With Okudaya’s reopening in July 2026, the Kagaya New Wing’s opening in winter 2026, the targeted seawall recovery completion in March 2027, and Tadaya’s resumption in April 2028, Wakura Onsen’s recovery will enter new phases in stages over the next 2–3 years. How policy and new supply fill the “delay” in booking pace visible in OTA sales data is directly tied to the overall recovery scenario for Noto tourism.