It has now been just over two years since the Hokuriku Shinkansen extension from Kanazawa to Tsuruga opened on March 16, 2024. Fukui Prefecture is forecast to receive an annual economic ripple effect of ¥30.9 billion, according to the Development Bank of Japan (DBJ). From the year prior to opening (2023), through the inaugural year (2024), the second year (2025), and now into the third year (2026), the lodging markets of Fukui, Tsuruga, Komatsu, and Kanazawa have undergone dramatic changes. This report analyzes four years of monthly ADR (Average Daily Rate) data collected by MetroEngines Research across the four cities, along with pricing trends at major newly-opened hotels including Courtyard by Marriott Fukui (252 rooms, opened March 2024). Using booking pace data from Golden Week and the summer holidays of 2026, we determine whether the “shinkansen effect” has taken root or if a reactionary downturn has begun, while also examining the impact of the Kansai-region disconnection issue (the so-called “Tsuruga terminus problem”) on the year-three lodging market.

Monthly ADR Trends Across Four Cities (2023-2026): From “Kanazawa Dominance” to “Fukui’s Surge”

First, let us compare monthly ADR trends for Fukui, Tsuruga, Komatsu, and Kanazawa from the year before the Hokuriku Shinkansen Tsuruga extension (2023) through year three (2026). The charts below overlay each city’s monthly average selling price on major OTAs, as collected by MetroEngines Research, year by year.

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (N = Fukui City monthly avg. 306 records, 4 years)

Fukui City has shown the most dramatic movement. In 2023 (pre-opening), ADR ranged between ¥23,000 and ¥29,000 throughout the year, but with the shinkansen opening in March 2024, the range shifted up a notch. December 2024 saw ¥33,500, and August 2025 reached ¥36,200, pushing rates roughly ¥10,000 higher than pre-opening levels. The opening of Courtyard by Marriott Fukui (252 rooms, the first Marriott property in the Hokuriku region) significantly contributed to lifting the price floor. Meanwhile, year three (2026) has entered a slight adjustment phase, with ranges of ¥28,000-¥34,800, suggesting the peak has passed.

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (N = Kanazawa City monthly avg. 443 records, 4 years)

As Hokuriku’s largest tourism city, Kanazawa originally maintained higher ADR levels than Fukui. In 2023, rates ran from ¥23,600 to ¥28,400, and in 2024 they climbed steadily to the ¥26,300-¥30,000 range. However, conditions changed dramatically in 2025. From June through October that year, ADR plunged to ¥21,700-¥25,700, marking the only clear year-on-year decline among the four cities. This was interpreted as the “end of the shinkansen-opening boom.” Yet 2026 saw a recovery, with rates reaching record-high ¥33,000 levels from April onward. Following Fukui Tower’s redevelopment, Kanazawa also welcomed major new supply including Four Points Flex by Sheraton Kanazawa (220 rooms, opened 2025) and KOKO HOTEL Premier Kanazawa Korinbo (135 rooms, opened September 2025), and this market renewal is believed to be driving the rebound.

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (N = Tsuruga City monthly avg. 194 records, 4 years)

Tsuruga, the new shinkansen terminus, has the lowest ADR level among the four cities. Rates ran ¥18,000-¥23,900 in 2023 and ¥17,500-¥24,300 in 2024, indicating that the benefits of the shinkansen opening have barely been priced in. The background lies in the “disconnection structure” forcing Kansai-area passengers to transfer at Tsuruga, turning the city into a mere “transit point.” A major business hotel, Dormy Inn Tsuruga Natural Hot Spring Wakasa-no-Yu (199 rooms), opened in July 2025, but Tsuruga’s overall ADR remained ¥17,600 in June 2025 and ¥18,700 in April 2026, with months falling below ¥20,000 still common.

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (N = Komatsu City monthly avg. 256 records, 4 years)

Komatsu shows the most intriguing pattern of the four. From ¥32,500-¥38,400 in 2023, rates climbed to ¥37,400 in August 2024, ¥44,900 in August 2025, and ¥43,200 in November 2025 – a sustained upward trajectory. The drivers are Komatsu Airport (which preserves access from both the Kanto and Kansai regions) and a price structure where Kaga Onsen ryokan-style properties maintain a meaningful share. In May 2026 (year three), rates reached ¥43,500, making Komatsu the only city among the four to exceed its 2025 Golden Week average.

Four-City ADR Comparison (Golden Week): Uneven Distribution of the Shinkansen Effect

The clearest illustration of each city’s character comes from a comparison of Golden Week ADR (April 29 – May 6) across the years. The chart below shows the average Golden Week ADR by city for each of the four years from 2023 (pre-opening) through 2026 (year three).

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Kanazawa has held the top spot for four consecutive years, but Fukui is closing the gap in growth rate. Fukui’s Golden Week ADR rose roughly 52% – from ¥23,700 in 2023 to ¥36,000 in 2026 – the largest increase among the four cities, marking it as the city where the shinkansen-opening effect is most visibly evident. Tsuruga, in contrast, gained only about 37%, rising from ¥19,100 in 2023 to ¥26,100 in 2026. Komatsu added about 14% (¥34,400 to ¥39,200), and Kanazawa rose roughly 51% (¥26,200 to ¥39,600).

Courtyard by Marriott Fukui: How a New Opening Reshaped the Existing Market

Courtyard by Marriott Fukui (252 rooms), which opened on March 15, 2024, is the first Marriott International property in the Hokuriku region. Occupying floors 17-28 of the 28-story, 120-meter-tall Fukui Station Front Block A redevelopment – a ¥40.7 billion project – it serves as the centerpiece of Fukui Tower. By examining this property’s standalone ADR trajectory, we can clearly see how Fukui’s new openings have reshaped the existing market.

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (N = Courtyard Fukui monthly avg. 2,300 records)

Courtyard Fukui’s ADR launched at high levels: ¥45,200 in April 2024 (right after opening), ¥37,500 in May, ¥43,900 in August, and ¥46,900 in November. Throughout 2025, rates remained in the high-¥30,000s to ¥40,000s range, but a major adjustment phase began in September 2025. By December 2025 prices had fallen to ¥25,800, and by 2026 the low ¥20,000s became the norm. By March 2026, plans selling below ¥20,000 became common, settling at roughly half the opening-period levels.

This does not mean the property has lost competitiveness; rather, it should be interpreted as the “Marriott premium new-demand stimulation phase” running its course, with the market finding a new equilibrium. Even so, the property’s 2026 ADR continues to exceed the Fukui City average (¥28,000-¥34,800), making a sustained contribution to lifting the city’s lodging rate range.

Major New Hotel Openings (2024-2026)

Major new hotel openings of 100+ rooms across the four cities are listed below. Notably, new supply has concentrated in Fukui and Tsuruga.

Source: MetroEngines Research (within scope of coverage), compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

While Fukui added more than 500 rooms of new supply between 2024 and 2026, Tsuruga’s only major addition over the three years was the 199-room Dormy Inn Tsuruga. This is likely one of the structural reasons why Tsuruga’s ADR levels have lagged the other three cities. The fact that new hotel investment has concentrated in Fukui rather than Tsuruga also reflects the market’s judgment that “under the disconnection structure, Fukui is the winner.”

2026 Golden Week & Summer Booking Pace: “Shinkansen Effect Entrenched” or “Reactionary Decline”?

The true assessment of year three (2026) can be derived from booking pace during peak periods. The charts below show year-on-year comparisons of ADR and sold-out rates (the share of plans that had stopped accepting reservations at the time of survey) across the four cities for Golden Week (April 29 – May 6) and the Obon summer holiday period (August 8 – 17) in 2025 and 2026.

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The verdict is clear. ADR for the 2026 Golden Week reached ¥36,000 in Fukui (+10.3% YoY), ¥26,100 in Tsuruga (+1.1%), ¥39,600 in Kanazawa (+11.0%), and ¥39,200 in Komatsu (-5.0%) – three of four cities posted gains. More importantly, sold-out rates surged. The 2025 Golden Week sold-out rate was effectively zero, but in 2026 it climbed to 21.0% in Fukui, 18.5% in Tsuruga, 31.6% in Kanazawa, and 18.5% in Komatsu – a marked tightening of demand. This is not “reactionary decline” accompanied by demand evaporation, but rather “price increase plus inventory absorption” amid expanding demand, indicating that the shinkansen effect has firmly taken root in year three.

The summer holiday period (August 8-17) shows the same pattern, with all four cities recording gains: Fukui ¥45,300 (+15.1%), Tsuruga ¥31,400 (+7.5%), Kanazawa ¥38,000 (+5.3%), and Komatsu ¥40,800 (+2.5%). Fukui’s summer ADR rose by nearly ¥10,000 year-on-year, which is particularly noteworthy.

The ¥30.9 Billion Economic Effect and the “Tsuruga Terminus Problem”

In February 2020, the Hokuriku Branch of the Development Bank of Japan (DBJ) estimated the annual economic ripple effect of the Hokuriku Shinkansen Tsuruga extension on Fukui Prefecture at ¥30.9 billion. This breakdown centers on consumption growth tied to increased tourism and business exchange flows, with the lodging industry being a primary beneficiary sector. The continued ADR rise in Fukui demonstrated by this article’s data (roughly +30% from 2023 to 2026) corroborates the validity of the ¥30.9 billion estimate.

However, the data also clearly reflects the “Tsuruga terminus problem.” Since March 2024, the Hokuriku Shinkansen has connected Tokyo and Fukui in as little as 2 hours and 51 minutes, but travelers from Kansai (Osaka, Kyoto) must transfer at Tsuruga Station to conventional limited express trains (Shirasagi, Thunderbird). Some media outlets have reported on the “Tsuruga terminus crisis,” noting that this transfer burden has reduced convenience for travelers from the Kansai region.

This disconnection problem is most clearly reflected in Tsuruga’s ADR levels. Despite being the new shinkansen terminus, Tsuruga’s ADR was just ¥18,700 as of April 2026 – the only city among the four with months still falling below ¥20,000. Even three years after the shinkansen opening, Tsuruga has failed to function as a “tourism destination,” instead remaining limited to a transit role: a “transfer station” for Kansai-region passengers and a “stop before Fukui” for travelers from the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Conversely, the fact that new supply investment has concentrated in Fukui rather than Tsuruga, and that newly opened hotels are largely selling at high ADR levels, reflects developers’ and operators’ reading that “the shinkansen effect concentrates in Fukui.” If the Tsuruga-Shin-Osaka extension – currently targeted for fiscal 2046 – is realized, the Wakasa region could become a new beneficiary area as an intermediate city along the Tsuruga-Obama-Kyoto route. But for the roughly 20 years until then, the current “disconnection structure” will continue. During this period, Fukui and Kanazawa will remain the leading drivers of the Hokuriku lodging market.

Conclusion: The “Geographic Concentration of the Shinkansen Effect” in Year Three

From this article’s analysis of four-city ADR trends and new hotel openings, the following characteristics emerge in the year-three lodging market following the Hokuriku Shinkansen Tsuruga extension.

Source: MetroEngines Research, compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

First, the shinkansen effect has concentrated in Fukui and Kanazawa. Both cities saw Golden Week ADR rise more than 50% over three years, with sold-out rates in the 20-30% range signaling tight demand. Second, despite being the terminus, Tsuruga has captured the least benefit, bearing the brunt of the Kansai-disconnection structure. Third, Komatsu maintains a unique position thanks to airport access and the appeal of Kaga Onsen, but the upside from the shinkansen effect has been limited. Fourth, while major city-hotel openings such as Courtyard by Marriott Fukui lift the overall market ADR range, an adjustment toward a new equilibrium in year three is unavoidable.

The booking pace data for Golden Week and the summer holidays of 2026 confirms that the shinkansen effect remains firmly entrenched in year three. Whether similar growth continues into year four and beyond, however, remains uncertain. Once Marriott-related premium new demand has run its course and the new-opening rush settles down from 2027 onward, an era will begin in which each hotel’s individual management capabilities (appropriate ADR setting, channel-specific inventory allocation, demand-forecast accuracy) determine results. When the tailwind of the Hokuriku Shinkansen subsides, the true competitive strength of each operator will be tested.

References

• Fukui Prefecture: Hokuriku Shinkansen Development Effects (Official)
• Development Bank of Japan: Economic Ripple Effect of the Hokuriku Shinkansen Tsuruga Extension on Fukui Prefecture