The winter of 2026 is a winter worth re-reading hotel and ryokan heating costs for. As of the survey dated 17 August 2026, the national average over-the-counter price of kerosene was ¥2,532 per 18 litres (¥140.7 per litre, tax included). That is 15.6% above the ¥2,190 average of the previous winter (December 2025 to February 2026). And this ¥140.7 figure already incorporates the ¥32.5 per litre subsidy that the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy has applied to shipments from 19 March 2026 under its emergency price-shock mitigation measure.
Starting from the published price series for kerosene and LP gas, this article breaks winter heating costs down to a per-room monthly figure for November through March, using two models: a 100-room business hotel and a 50-room onsen ryokan. It then tests how far winter room rates in the ryokan category are absorbing that cost level, using MetroEngines Research estimated settled ADR and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications accommodation-charge CPI.
Metric Definitions Used in This Article
- ADR (average daily rate): an estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent) calculated by applying a category-specific adjustment coefficient to the lowest published plan level each property lists on OTAs and similar channels (two guests per room, per-room price, tax included). Cross-checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent three months), the median error is approximately 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual transacted prices and accounting figures. Area-level ADR is the median of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in that area).
- Room occupancy rate: the occupancy rates used in this article’s modelling are adopted as assumptions from the room-scale occupancy rates published by the Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (January 2026, second preliminary figures). They are not our own estimates.
- Heating cost (thermal energy cost): the cost of fuel and electricity used for hot-water supply, bath heating and space heating. Kitchen, lighting, power and cooling are excluded.
- Data sources: MetroEngines Research (ADR) / Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Petroleum Product Price Survey” (kerosene) / Oil Information Center “LP Gas Price Survey” / Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Consumer Price Index” / Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey”
- — Kerosene at ¥140.7/L (17 August 2026 survey, over-the-counter cash price ¥2,532 per 18L). That is 15.6% above the previous winter’s average, and it is the level after the ¥32.5/L subsidy under the emergency price-shock mitigation measure is factored in.
- — A 50-room onsen ryokan pays ¥15,202 per room per month (November to March). At the ¥173.2/L equivalent that would apply without the subsidy, it becomes ¥18,710. A 100-room business hotel pays ¥3,794 — a gap of roughly 4.0x per room.
- — Cost per megajoule of delivered heat: kerosene ¥4.53, LP gas ¥7.99, heat pump ¥2.11. LP gas costs 1.76x kerosene. 31.1% of the ryokan category sits in towns and villages, and the further outside the pipeline network a property lies, the greater the room for conversion.
- — Raising occupancy from 40% to 60% increases heating cost by only 5.6%. Large-bath heating and building-wide space heating are fixed thermal loads, so the increment from selling one additional room-night is only about ¥140.
- — Winter estimated settled ADR is up a median +17.4% year on year (all 18 prefectures covered are positive). Against a median revenue gain in the ¥35,000s, the heating-cost increment is +¥2,053 (+¥5,564 even assuming no subsidy).
Kerosene is 15.6% above last winter — but that level already sits on top of a ¥32.5/L subsidy
Start with where prices stand. The over-the-counter cash price of kerosene (national average, 18 litres, tax included) in the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Petroleum Product Price Survey” (weekly, Monday survey) was extremely stable in a ¥2,170–2,230 range from autumn 2025 through February 2026. The low point in that period was ¥2,173 in the 19 January 2026 survey.
The picture changed in March 2026. From ¥2,267 in the 9 March survey, the price rose to ¥2,774 in the 16 March survey — ¥507 (22.4%) in a single week. Behind it was a sharp rise in crude oil prices driven by developments in the Middle East, and on 11 March 2026 the government decided to implement the emergency price-shock mitigation measure.
Kerosene over-the-counter cash price (national average, 18 litres, tax included; 70 weekly observations) / Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Petroleum Product Price Survey”
The design of this measure matters for operators, not only for households. According to the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy explanatory material (11 March 2026), the framework provides a 10/10 subsidy on the portion above ¥170 whenever the national average retail price of gasoline is projected to exceed roughly ¥170, and applies the same per-litre subsidy amount to diesel, heavy oil and kerosene as to gasoline. For kerosene and heavy oil, this measure replaced the earlier flat ¥5 per litre price-reduction subsidy.
From 27 August 2026 the subsidy is ¥32.5 per litre for gasoline, diesel, kerosene and heavy oil alike, and ¥13.0 for jet fuel (the adjustment unit price was ¥6.0/L for August 2026). In other words, the current ¥140.7/L kerosene price converts to roughly ¥173.2/L before the subsidy is deducted.
The regulatory picture (established facts only, no speculation)
・Kerosene is not subject to any provisional tax rate equivalent to the gasoline tax or the diesel delivery tax. The abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate in December 2025 therefore has no direct downward effect on kerosene prices.
・Indeed, the ¥29.2 gap between the ¥169.9/L national average gasoline price in the week of 24 August 2026 and the ¥140.7/L kerosene price in the 17 August survey is broadly consistent with the post-abolition gasoline tax level.
・On the emergency price-shock mitigation measure, the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy states that it “will continue to consider the form of support flexibly should the situation become prolonged,” and no end date is specified in the published materials. This article does not prejudge an end date and models both with and without the subsidy.
LP gas has been rising since May 2026 — up 5.4% nationally in three months
The other major winter heat source alongside kerosene is LP gas. The general retail price of LP gas surveyed by the Oil Information Center (national average, at 10 cubic metres of usage, including the basic charge and consumption tax) had risen only tens of yen a month for nearly two years, from ¥9,096 in July 2024 to ¥9,281 in April 2026.
Then came ¥9,489 in May 2026, ¥9,697 in June and ¥9,785 in July — a 5.4% rise in three months. Because LP gas retail prices move with a lag of several months in response to the contract price (CP) published by Saudi Aramco and to the exchange rate, this reads as the spring 2026 crude oil surge feeding through to retail prices over the summer. While kerosene is being held down by the emergency price-shock mitigation measure, LP gas falls outside that measure, so price movements pass straight through to the retail stage.
LP gas general retail price (national average, at 10 cubic metres of usage, basic charge and tax included) / Source: Oil Information Center “LP Gas Price Survey”
The regional breakdown of the July 2026 survey shows cold regions running high — ¥11,569 in Hokkaido and ¥10,698 in Tohoku — a wide gap per cubic metre against ¥9,227 in Kanto. Commercial users with large volumes face a lower marginal unit price by design: the national average is ¥37,197 at 50 cubic metres and ¥17,022 at 20 cubic metres, which implies a marginal unit price of roughly ¥672 per cubic metre across that band. This article uses that ¥672 figure as the commercial-use benchmark.
31% of ryokan sit in towns and villages — geography is what splits the heat-source mix
Even for the same “winter heating cost,” the starting conditions differ sharply between business hotels and ryokan. The decisive factor is how far the city gas pipeline network reaches. As the Japan Gas Association explains, the city gas supply area covers only a small portion of Japan’s land area; outside the pipeline network, heat sources are limited to LP gas, kerosene, class-A heavy oil and electricity.
Aggregating operating accommodation properties within MetroEngines Research coverage by municipality type brings this geographic divide into focus. Of the 7,753 properties in the ryokan category, 2,415 (31.1%) and 51,304 rooms (28.5%) are located in towns and villages. In the business hotel category of 6,388 properties, town and village locations account for only 301 properties (4.7%) and 15,532 rooms (2.4%).
| Category | Properties in cities/wards | Properties in towns/villages | Town/village share | Rooms in towns/villages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryokan | 5,338 | 2,415 | 31.1% | 51,304 rooms |
| Business hotel | 6,087 | 301 | 4.7% | 15,532 rooms |
Source: MetroEngines Research (operating properties basis, N = 7,753 ryokan and 6,388 business hotels)
Listing the municipalities with the largest number of ryokan makes the picture more concrete. The top ranks are filled by onsen towns and villages — Hakone, Yamanouchi, Kusatsu, Minakami, Minamioguni, Kokonoe — while among cities, Yufu, Takayama, Kyotango and Kaga rank high on the strength of onsen settlements set well away from their urban centres. All are at some distance from the core of the pipeline network, and all are locations where dependence on LP gas, kerosene and class-A heavy oil tends to be high. The perspective of treating climate itself as a variable in location assessment is explored from both the demand and cost sides of winter in Snow as Cost or Asset: Winter RevPAR 53% vs Winter ADR 2.66x.
| Municipality | Ryokan properties | Rooms | Average rooms per property |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakone, Kanagawa | 158 | 4,206 rooms | 26.6 rooms |
| Yufu, Oita | 135 | 1,556 rooms | 11.5 rooms |
| Takayama, Gifu | 120 | 2,086 rooms | 17.4 rooms |
| Yamanouchi, Nagano | 100 | 2,687 rooms | 26.9 rooms |
| Nikko, Tochigi | 95 | 4,478 rooms | 47.1 rooms |
| Toyooka, Hyogo | 88 | 1,377 rooms | 15.6 rooms |
| Toba, Mie | 85 | 2,048 rooms | 24.1 rooms |
| Ito, Shizuoka | 82 | 1,615 rooms | 19.7 rooms |
| Kyotango, Kyoto | 76 | 913 rooms | 12.0 rooms |
| Atami, Shizuoka | 76 | 2,508 rooms | 33.0 rooms |
| Beppu, Oita | 74 | 1,538 rooms | 20.8 rooms |
| Kusatsu, Gunma | 72 | 1,626 rooms | 22.6 rooms |
Source: MetroEngines Research (operating ryokan-category properties, top 12 municipalities out of N = 7,753 properties)
Cost per megajoule of heat — kerosene ¥4.53, LP gas ¥7.99, heat pump ¥2.11
Comparing heat sources requires aligning them not on fuel unit price but on “how much it costs per megajoule of heat actually delivered.” The chart below is the result of applying equipment efficiency to standard calorific values based on the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Standard Calorific Values and Carbon Emission Factors by Energy Source” and the standard 13A calorific value set by city gas utilities.
Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research from Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Petroleum Product Price Survey,” “Standard Calorific Values and Carbon Emission Factors by Energy Source” and “Electric Power Survey Statistics,” and Oil Information Center “LP Gas Price Survey”
The ranking is unambiguous. An air-source heat pump (assuming a winter average coefficient of performance of 3.0) is cheapest at ¥2.11/MJ, followed by a kerosene boiler at ¥4.53/MJ, a city gas boiler at ¥4.71/MJ, direct electric resistance heating at ¥6.33/MJ, and an LP gas boiler at ¥7.99/MJ. Stripping out the ¥32.5/L subsidy under the emergency price-shock mitigation measure moves kerosene to ¥5.58/MJ, above city gas.
The 1.76x gap between LP gas and kerosene translates directly into a heating-cost gap for properties located outside the city gas pipeline network. Conversely, the scope for partial conversion to heat pumps is larger for LP-gas-dependent properties than for kerosene-dependent ones, and that is where the upside sits from an investment-payback perspective.
Modelling assumptions
Heating costs for November through March (151 days) are modelled using the two models below. All assumptions are stated explicitly, with sensitivity analysis showing the range.
| Item | Assumption | Basis / notes |
|---|---|---|
| Period covered | November to March, 151 days | The five months when space-heating and hot-water loads rise |
| Winter average supply water temperature | 10°C | Assumes winter tap water temperature in inland Honshu |
| Standard calorific value (gross) | Kerosene 36.5 MJ/L, city gas 13A 45.0 MJ/m³, electricity 3.6 MJ/kWh | Electricity per Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Standard Calorific Values and Carbon Emission Factors by Energy Source.” Kerosene 36.5 MJ/L is the FY2013/FY2018 revised value from the same source (the FY2023 revised value is 36.60 MJ/L); city gas 13A 45.0 MJ/m³ is the standard 13A calorific value set by gas utilities |
| LP gas calorific value | 99 MJ/m³ | Conventional value for propane-based gas at standard conditions |
| Hot-water boiler efficiency | 85% | Common to kerosene, LP gas and city gas |
| Heat pump coefficient of performance | 3.0 (winter average) | Air-source; a conservative value that factors in falling outside air temperatures |
| Kerosene unit price | ¥140.7/L (tax included) | 17 August 2026 survey, over-the-counter cash price ¥2,532 per 18L. Level inclusive of the ¥32.5/L subsidy |
| LP gas unit price | ¥672/m³ (tax included) | July 2026 survey, national average marginal unit price across the 20–50 m³ band |
| Commercial electricity unit price | ¥22.8/kWh | Average high-voltage unit price level per Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Electric Power Survey Statistics” |
| City gas commercial unit price | ¥4.0/MJ (equivalent to ¥180/m³) | Set as a reference value given the wide variation by contract type |
| Item | Model A: 100-room business hotel | Model B: 50-room onsen ryokan |
|---|---|---|
| Rooms and room area | 100 rooms, 18 m² (unit bath) | 50 rooms, predominantly Japanese-style |
| Total floor area | 3,600 m² | 4,000 m² (including banquet hall and large bath) |
| Large communal bath | None | Indoor and open-air baths, total tub volume 20 m³, heated recirculation |
| Hot water temperature | 40°C at point of use (mainly guest-room showers) | Bath maintained at 42°C; guest-room and kitchen hot water at 40°C |
| Room occupancy rate (mid case) | 65% | 50% |
| Basis for occupancy | Room-scale occupancy rates from the Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey,” January 2026, second preliminary figures. Properties with 100–199 rooms where leisure guests account for under 50%: 66.1%; properties with 40–99 rooms where leisure guests account for 50% or more: 49.8% (national). These were rounded to set the mid case | |
| Hot-water heat demand | 26.5 MJ per occupied room-night (130 L per room + 25% storage/circulation loss + 30% common areas) | 30 MJ per occupied room-night (including dinner/breakfast service and in-room baths) |
| Large-bath heat demand | — | 1,800 MJ per day (432 MJ tub heat loss + 670 MJ to heat 5 m³ of make-up water + approx. 700 MJ for piping and washing areas) |
| Space-heating heat demand | 32.5 MJ per occupied room-night (25.2 MJ guest room + 30% common areas) | 3,000 MJ per day (4,000 m² total floor area × 0.75 MJ/m²/day) |
| Baseline heat-source mix | Hot water = city gas; space heating = individual heat pump air conditioning | Hot water, bath and space heating all by kerosene boiler |
Note: This modelling covers heating costs only. Kitchen, lighting, power and cooling, along with basic charges and maintenance costs, are excluded. Actual costs vary widely with building insulation performance, source-spring temperature, hot-water system design and contract terms. Please treat these figures as a starting point for decision-making rather than a precise forecast.
Results — ¥15,200 per room per month for the onsen ryokan, ¥3,800 for the business hotel
Applying the assumptions, Model B, the onsen ryokan, has daily heat demand of 5,550 MJ. With a kerosene boiler at ¥140.7/L, that costs ¥25,164 per day, or roughly ¥3.80 million across the five months from November to March. Divided by the full 50-room inventory, that is ¥15,202 per room per month.
Model A, the business hotel, requires 3,835 MJ per day and, on the baseline mix (city gas hot water plus heat pump space heating), costs ¥12,562 per day, roughly ¥1.90 million for the season, or just ¥3,794 per room per month. On a per-room basis, the onsen ryokan runs about 4.0x the business hotel.
| Model and heat-source mix | Heat demand (MJ/day) | Heating cost (¥/day) | Per room per month | Nov–Mar total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: 100-room business / city gas hot water + HP heating | 3,835 | 12,562 | ¥3,794 | ¥1.90M |
| A: 100-room business / kerosene hot water + HP heating | 3,835 | 12,266 | ¥3,704 | ¥1.85M |
| A: 100-room business / LP gas hot water + HP heating | 3,835 | 18,221 | ¥5,503 | ¥2.75M |
| B: 50-room ryokan / kerosene boiler (subsidy included) | 5,550 | 25,164 | ¥15,202 | ¥3.80M |
| B: 50-room ryokan / kerosene boiler (equivalent without subsidy) | 5,550 | 30,977 | ¥18,710 | ¥4.68M |
| B: 50-room ryokan / LP gas boiler | 5,550 | 44,354 | ¥26,790 | ¥6.70M |
| B: 50-room ryokan / converted to heat-pump-led system | 5,550 | 11,706 | ¥7,071 | ¥1.77M |
Source: MetroEngines Research modelling (on the assumptions in Tables 3 and 4)
Three implications are worth drawing out. First, the large communal bath contributes heavily. Without one, the ryokan model comes to ¥10,269 per room per month, meaning the large bath accounts for roughly ¥4,930 per room per month, or 32% of the total. Second, an LP-gas-dependent onsen ryokan faces 1.76x the heating cost of a kerosene-dependent one — the geography of sitting outside the pipeline network shows up directly in the numbers. Third, the theoretical figure for conversion to a heat-pump-led system is ¥7,071 per room per month, implying scope to cut roughly ¥2 million across the November–March season versus kerosene. Capital expenditure and source-spring temperature constraints have to be factored in, but the level is more than enough to justify examining the economics of conversion.
Sensitivity analysis — kerosene ±¥20/L, occupancy ±10 points
The assumptions carrying the greatest uncertainty are the kerosene unit price and the occupancy rate. The tables below show the per-room monthly figure across those two axes. The ¥173.2/L at the right-hand edge corresponds to the level that would apply if the ¥32.5/L subsidy under the emergency price-shock mitigation measure were not in place.
| Occupancy \ kerosene price | ¥120.7/L | ¥140.7/L (base) | ¥160.7/L | ¥173.2/L (no-subsidy equivalent) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | ¥12,689 | ¥14,792 | ¥16,894 | ¥18,205 |
| 50% (mid case) | ¥13,041 | ¥15,202 | ¥17,363 | ¥18,710 |
| 60% | ¥13,394 | ¥15,613 | ¥17,833 | ¥19,216 |
| Occupancy \ kerosene price | ¥120.7/L | ¥140.7/L (base) | ¥160.7/L | ¥173.2/L (no-subsidy equivalent) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | ¥2,851 | ¥3,135 | ¥3,419 | ¥3,595 |
| 65% (mid case) | ¥3,369 | ¥3,705 | ¥4,040 | ¥4,249 |
| 75% | ¥3,888 | ¥4,275 | ¥4,662 | ¥4,903 |
Source: MetroEngines Research modelling (on the assumptions in Tables 3 and 4)
What stands out is how little the result moves with occupancy. In the ryokan model, raising occupancy 20 points from 40% to 60% lifts the per-room monthly figure by only ¥821 (5.6%), because large-bath heating and building-wide space heating are fixed thermal loads almost independent of occupancy. Read the other way: adding winter occupancy barely raises heating cost at all. The incremental heating cost of one additional room-night is only about ¥140, so the structure is one in which the heating burden per room-night falls the more winter room-nights are sold.
Winter rates are outrunning the cost increase — ryokan estimated settled ADR is up a median +17.4% year on year
So how far are winter rates absorbing this cost level? We compared MetroEngines Research estimated settled ADR for the ryokan category by prefecture, taking the three-month average for December 2024 to February 2025 against December 2025 to February 2026.
Year-on-year change in winter (December–February) estimated settled ADR, ryokan category / Source: MetroEngines Research (18 prefectures covered, monthly samples of N = 67–554 properties)
All 18 prefectures were positive, with a median of +17.4%. The leaders were Aomori at +31.1%, Hokkaido at +28.0% and Yamagata at +23.2% — northern Japan stands out. In the business hotel category over the same period, the year-on-year median was +5.7%, a materially different level. The room to move price in winter, in other words, sits disproportionately with ryokan, which have added value in the form of communal baths and meals.
The next table converts that rate increase into revenue per room per month and sets it beside the increase in heating cost. Revenue is calculated as winter estimated settled ADR × occupancy × 30.2 days. Occupancy is assumed at 50% (as of January 2026; the Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” second preliminary figures put properties with 40–99 rooms where leisure guests account for 50% or more at 49.8%).
| Prefecture | Last winter ADR | This winter ADR | YoY | Revenue gain (¥/room/month) | Heating cost ratio (current) | Heating cost ratio (no subsidy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aomori | ¥8,162 | ¥10,697 | +31.1% | +¥38,278 | 9.4% | 11.6% |
| Hokkaido | ¥8,167 | ¥10,452 | +28.0% | +¥34,504 | 9.6% | 11.9% |
| Yamagata | ¥13,056 | ¥16,084 | +23.2% | +¥45,713 | 6.3% | 7.7% |
| Fukushima | ¥10,011 | ¥12,284 | +22.7% | +¥34,322 | 8.2% | 10.1% |
| Miyagi | ¥12,817 | ¥15,539 | +21.2% | +¥41,097 | 6.5% | 8.0% |
| Kagoshima | ¥9,301 | ¥11,205 | +20.5% | +¥28,750 | 9.0% | 11.1% |
| Tochigi | ¥15,171 | ¥18,256 | +20.3% | +¥46,594 | 5.5% | 6.8% |
| Nagano | ¥12,410 | ¥14,854 | +19.7% | +¥36,914 | 6.8% | 8.3% |
| Gifu | ¥13,785 | ¥16,206 | +17.6% | +¥36,557 | 6.2% | 7.6% |
| Shizuoka | ¥18,053 | ¥21,155 | +17.2% | +¥46,840 | 4.8% | 5.9% |
| Gunma | ¥14,995 | ¥17,199 | +14.7% | +¥33,280 | 5.9% | 7.2% |
| Akita | ¥8,356 | ¥9,535 | +14.1% | +¥17,803 | 10.6% | 13.0% |
| Oita | ¥18,101 | ¥20,433 | +12.9% | +¥35,203 | 4.9% | 6.1% |
| Niigata | ¥13,715 | ¥15,334 | +11.8% | +¥24,452 | 6.6% | 8.1% |
| Kanagawa | ¥20,328 | ¥22,711 | +11.7% | +¥35,988 | 4.4% | 5.5% |
| Iwate | ¥8,913 | ¥9,881 | +10.9% | +¥14,612 | 10.2% | 12.5% |
| Hyogo | ¥25,477 | ¥28,052 | +10.1% | +¥38,882 | 3.6% | 4.4% |
| Ishikawa | ¥19,597 | ¥21,371 | +9.1% | +¥26,792 | 4.7% | 5.8% |
The heating cost increment is measured against last winter’s prevailing kerosene price of ¥121.7/L: +¥2,053 per room per month at the current ¥140.7/L, and +¥5,564 per room per month at the ¥173.2/L no-subsidy equivalent (identical across all prefectures). Source: MetroEngines Research
The rise in kerosene from last winter’s ¥121.7/L to the current ¥140.7/L adds ¥2,053 per room per month in heating cost. Even assuming the ¥173.2/L level with no subsidy, the increment stops at +¥5,564. Against that, the revenue gain from higher winter rates is +¥14,612 even in Iwate, the smallest, and reaches the ¥35,000s at the median. In all 18 prefectures, the rate increase substantially exceeds the heating cost increment.
Expressed as a ratio of heating cost to revenue, the ryokan category median is 6.4% at current levels and 7.8% assuming the subsidy lapses. For the business hotel category it is 2.9% on the baseline mix and only 4.1% even with LP gas dependence. Heating cost is a fixed cost that bites into GOP, yet in a period of rising winter rates its relative weight is actually falling. Summer utility costs behave quite differently, with air conditioning taking the lead role and the load profile diverging considerably from winter, as we analysed in our earlier work on how summer 2026 electricity costs erode hotel GOP across a 200-room business hotel and a 500-room resort.
The accommodation-charge CPI points the same way
Official statistics corroborate the movement. Overlaying the accommodation-charge component of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Consumer Price Index” (national, 2020 = 100) year by year shows the level shifting upward while the seasonal pattern holds.
Accommodation-charge CPI (national, 2020 = 100) / Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Consumer Price Index” (e-Stat table ID 0003427113)
Across the three winter months, December 2025 came in at 167.9, up 7.8% from 155.8 a year earlier; January 2026 at 159.1, up 5.9% from 150.2; and February 2026 at 164.7, up 6.0% from 155.4. The relationship between a CPI — an average across all categories nationwide — rising 6–8% and ryokan-category estimated settled ADR rising a median +17.4% is consistent with ryokan and resort properties being the main movers of winter pricing.
Four moves that turn heating cost into headroom
Building on the figures above, four directions are worth considering for winter 2026. All of them can be framed as revenue opportunities.
1. Heat-source conversion — heat pumps and geothermal spring heat
As Table 5 shows, the theoretical figure for the ryokan model converted to a heat-pump-led system is ¥7,071 per room per month, 53% below the kerosene boiler. That is roughly ¥2 million over the five-month season, and a larger gap still on a full-year basis. Because air-source heat pumps lose coefficient of performance as outside temperatures fall, realistic options in cold regions are water-source heat pumps using spring heat, or combining heat exchange with the source spring for hot-water pre-heating. At properties where the source spring exceeds 42°C, there is scope to shrink the large-bath heating requirement itself. Given the 1.76x unit-price gap between kerosene and LP gas, payback can be projected as faster the more a property depends on LP gas.
2. Operating-hours design for the large communal bath
In the ryokan model the large bath accounts for 32% of heating cost, most of it heat loss from the tub and piping. Fitting insulating covers during late-night hours when bathing demand is low, and optimising the timing of refilling around cleaning windows, are areas where results come without capital expenditure. At the same time, clearly promoting a morning-bath window raises the value of the stay and supports winter room rates.
3. Housekeeping and linen design for multi-night stays
A substantial share of hot-water heat demand is tied to laundering linen and towels and to amenity hot water. Making linen changes optional on multi-night stays, with an in-house benefit granted to guests who decline, works on both heating cost and labour cost, and can be positioned as part of the stay experience. Winter also requires heat for drying laundry, so the effect is easier to read the higher the share of multi-night stays.
4. Pricing winter plans
As the sensitivity analysis showed, raising occupancy from 40% to 60% lifts per-room monthly heating cost by only 5.6%. The incremental heating cost of one additional room-night is about ¥140. Winter is a period in which heating cost accrues in a fixed-cost manner, so the more occupancy is added, the lower the heating burden per room-night. That winter ryokan rates are running at a median +17.4% year on year indicates the foundation for staged pricing is already in place. Designing price gaps between weekdays and weekends, early bookings and last-minute, and multi-night versus single-night stays — taking rate on high-demand dates and occupancy on thin ones — is the structure that best fits the fixed nature of heating cost.
Summary
Winter 2026 heating costs come to roughly ¥15,200 per room per month for a 50-room onsen ryokan and ¥3,800 for a 100-room business hotel. Assuming the level at which the ¥32.5/L subsidy under the emergency price-shock mitigation measure no longer applies, the ryokan model rises to ¥18,700. But that increment is ¥5,564 per room per month versus last winter — comfortably small against the revenue gain delivered by a median +17.4% year-on-year rise in winter estimated settled ADR (a median in the ¥35,000s).
The heaviest heating burden falls on ryokan that have a large communal bath and sit outside the city gas pipeline network. That is also, simultaneously, where the headroom is greatest across all three directions — heat-source conversion, operational design and pricing. The fact that 31.1% of the ryokan category is located in towns and villages is a constraint and, at the same time, a statement that these properties hold a resource no other category has: geothermal spring heat.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. How long will the emergency price-shock mitigation measure for kerosene continue?
The published materials from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy specify no end date. The explanatory material of 11 March 2026 states that the agency “will continue to consider the form of support flexibly should the situation become prolonged, while also monitoring developments in the Middle East and the level of crude oil prices that follow from them.” The subsidy is updated weekly, and from 27 August 2026 it is ¥32.5 per litre for gasoline, diesel, kerosene and heavy oil alike. This article does not prejudge an end date and models both with and without the subsidy.
Q2. Is kerosene subject to a provisional tax rate?
Kerosene is not subject to any provisional tax rate equivalent to the gasoline tax or the diesel delivery tax. The abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate in December 2025 has no direct downward effect on kerosene prices. As of August 2026, the ¥29.2 gap between the ¥169.9/L national average for gasoline and ¥140.7/L for kerosene is broadly consistent with the post-abolition gasoline tax level.
Q3. How much of heating cost does the large communal bath account for?
In Model B of this article (a 50-room onsen ryokan with total tub volume of 20 cubic metres and heated recirculation), large-bath heat demand is 1,800 MJ per day, or 32% of the total 5,550 MJ. Converted to a per-room monthly figure, that is roughly ¥4,930. At properties where the source spring is hot enough that heating is largely unnecessary, this component shrinks substantially.
Q4. How large is the gap between LP gas and kerosene?
Factoring in 85% equipment efficiency, the cost per megajoule of heat is ¥4.53 for kerosene and ¥7.99 for LP gas — LP gas is 1.76x kerosene. In Model B, the onsen ryokan, November–March heating cost is ¥3.80 million on kerosene versus ¥6.70 million on LP gas. That said, LP gas varies widely by contract terms, and actual volume rates may differ from the assumption used here.
Q5. How much does heating cost rise if winter occupancy is increased?
In Model B, raising occupancy 20 points from 40% to 60% takes the per-room monthly figure from ¥12,689 to ¥13,394 (at kerosene of ¥120.7/L), an increase of only 5.6%. This is because large-bath heating and building-wide space heating are fixed thermal loads almost independent of occupancy; the incremental heating cost of selling one additional room-night is about ¥120.
On the use of these modelled figures: The heating costs in this article are a simplified model based on the assumptions set out explicitly in Tables 3 and 4. Actual costs vary widely with building insulation performance, source-spring temperature, hot-water and space-heating system design, contract terms and regional climate. For decisions about an individual property, please undertake detailed analysis based on measured data. Fuel prices and subsidy rates also change weekly, so please check the latest figures with each source.
Related Reading
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References and Sources
■ Fuel prices and policy
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, “Petroleum Product Price Survey” (kerosene over-the-counter cash price, weekly)
- Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry / Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, “Emergency Price-Shock Mitigation Measure in Light of the Middle East Situation” (subsidy rates; kerosene ¥32.5/L from 27 August 2026)
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Petroleum and Fuel Department, Fuel Distribution Policy Office, “On the Emergency Price-Shock Mitigation Measure” (11 March 2026)
- Institute of Energy Economics, Japan / Oil Information Center, “LP Gas General Retail Prices (preliminary),” survey of 31 July 2026
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, “Standard Calorific Values and Carbon Emission Factors by Energy Source” (FY2023 revision)
■ Government statistics
- Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey,” January 2026 (Reiwa 8), second preliminary figures (Table 8, room occupancy rates)
- Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey”
- Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, “Consumer Price Index,” accommodation charges (national, 2020 = 100) / e-Stat table ID 0003427113
■ Industry materials
- Japan Gas Association, “About the City Gas Business”
- Energy Conservation Center, Japan, “Energy Conservation in Hotels — Characteristics of Hotel Energy Consumption”
■ Data sources
Fuel prices are from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Petroleum Product Price Survey” kerosene over-the-counter cash price (national average, 18 litres, tax included; 70 weekly observations from 31 March 2025 to 17 August 2026) and the Oil Information Center “LP Gas General Retail Prices” (national average, monthly from July 2024 to July 2026). Subsidy rates are the published figures from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Emergency Price-Shock Mitigation Measure.” Rate levels are the estimated settled ADR of operating properties within our coverage (ryokan category, 18 prefectures covered, monthly samples of N = 67–554 properties; business hotel category) together with the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Consumer Price Index” accommodation charges (national, 2020 = 100). Location mix is on an operating-property basis, covering 7,753 ryokan and 6,388 business hotels. Occupancy assumptions are the room-scale occupancy rates from the Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey,” January 2026, second preliminary figures.
■ Limitations and caveats
The modelling covers only the heating cost of hot-water supply, bath heating and space heating; kitchen, lighting, power and cooling, along with basic charges and maintenance costs, are excluded. Equipment efficiencies, coefficients of performance and heat-demand intensities are standard design values, and actual costs vary considerably with building insulation performance, source-spring temperature, hot-water system design and contract terms. Fuel prices and subsidy rates change weekly, so the figures here are a snapshot as of the survey date. ADR figures are estimates and differ from each property’s actual transacted prices and accounting figures. Prefecture-level comparisons are aggregations within our coverage and do not encompass every property.
■ Market data
- MetroEngines Research — estimated settled ADR for the ryokan and business hotel categories (monthly by prefecture); location mix of operating properties by municipality