Within a 1km radius of JR Kamata Station there were 34 operating hotels with 3,532 rooms as of November 2026. Of these, 31 hotels and 3,472 rooms — 98.3% — are business hotels; there is not a single city-hotel or lifestyle-hotel room. The same radius, however, holds 4,307 business establishments and 54,660 workers, and widening it to 1.5km brings in 168,704 residents. With Haneda Airport about 10 minutes away on the Keikyu Line, airport pre- and post-flight stays add a third layer of demand on top of business and residential demand. This article overlays Ota Ward’s estimated settled ADR trend, nine years of room-stock history, zoning, land prices, flood inundation projections, and the Shin-Kuko Line (new airport line) plan to evaluate, as a site assessment, how much room there is to place an upper price tier in a station area made up entirely of limited-service hotels.

Room stock in this article covers lodging facilities with 10 or more rooms (excluding leisure/love hotels) within 1,000m of JR Kamata Station. “Operating” means a selling price was confirmed on major booking sites in the last 3 months (September–November 2026) (as of November 5, 2026; compiled by MetroEngines Research).

LT (lead time) = days until check-in. Occupancy in this article is “occupancy (OTA listed inventory basis, estimated)”, an estimate based on how OTA-listed inventory sells through, and differs from a property’s actual overall occupancy. Booking curves and estimated OCC use observation points from LT45 to LT1 only.

Site Assessment Summary — Deep Dual Demand, Prices Capped in the ¥15,000–20,000 Band

The conclusion first. The 1km radius around Kamata Station is a three-layer demand location: both employment and residential bases are deep, and proximity to Haneda is added on top. Even so, operating hotels fall within an October estimated settled ADR band of ¥6,200–19,200, and no property reaches ¥20,000. Ota Ward’s overall estimated settled ADR rose to ¥14,400 in October 2026 (+8.5% YoY, N=58), and estimated OCC reached 94.3% at LT1 in October (26 properties, 3,600 rooms). Because demand is being absorbed by a single product — business hotels at ¥12,500–20,000 — the empty upper tier remains as the location’s upside. That is the reading of this article.

The location’s appeal cannot, however, be translated directly into upper-tier profitability. The official land price of the station-front commercial site rose to ¥5.65M/㎡ in 2026 (+15.3% YoY), and every operating room within the radius falls in the 0.5–3.0m band of the Tama River flood inundation projection (maximum scale). Placing an upper-tier hotel requires working backward to the ADR that makes it viable, after factoring in land cost and flood-mitigation capex. The sections below look at demand, supply, pricing, zoning, and risk in that order.

Dual Business × Residential Demand — 55,000 Workers, 169,000 Residents, and Haneda

Start with the demand base. Cutting the small-area tabulation of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications / Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry “Economic Census for Business Activity (2021)” to a 1km radius around JR Kamata Station gives 4,307 establishments and 54,660 workers, of whom 16,753 (30.6%) work in office-type industries (information and communications, finance, real estate, professional services, etc.). Manufacturing, wholesale/retail, food service, and healthcare/welfare make up the rest — a picture of a “station area where business and daily life mix,” unlike an office district in central Tokyo. It suggests weekday business demand with real depth, but without the weekend drop-off seen in office-only locations.

The residential side is deeper still. Aggregating the MLIT National Land Numerical Information (future population estimates by 250m mesh) over a 1.5km radius gives 168,704 residents in 2020, 168,345 in 2025, and a projected 168,901 in 2040 — essentially flat. The 2040 change is +0.1%, the working-age share is 67.9% (2025), and the elderly share only 23.0%. Compared with station areas in regional cities facing population decline, this is a location where “resident-driven lodging demand” — homecomings, weddings and funerals, accompanying family to hospital — should be sustained over the long term.

The third layer is the airport. Keikyu Kamata Station is the junction of the Keikyu Airport Line and the Main Line, about 10 minutes from Haneda Airport Terminals 1 and 2, with average daily ridership of 61,303 in FY2024 (Keikyu figures, compiled by Tetsudo Channel). Haneda’s international passengers exceeded 12.5 million in the first half of FY2025 (April–September), and total passengers including domestic reached 45.56 million (+5.3% YoY) (Aviation Wire, based on Japan Airport Terminal and Tokyo International Air Terminal figures). International passengers in August 2025 alone were 2,197,623, the highest month since the airport opened, so pre- and post-flight demand around early-morning and late-night flights is growing structurally. According to Yokohama City, Haneda’s international slots have been expanded to 90,000 per year, and the national government is studying further increases.

The Shin-Kuko Line (Kamakama Line) plan sits on top of this. According to Ota Ward, Phase 1 runs underground from near Yaguchinowatashi Station on the Tokyu Tamagawa Line, passes beneath JR/Tokyu Kamata Station, and ends at a new Kamata station (tentative name) near Keikyu Kamata Station. Total project cost is ¥124.8 billion (excluding consumption tax), and the developer is Haneda Airport Line Co., funded by the ward and Tokyu Railways. A speed-improvement plan under the Urban Railway Convenience Enhancement Act was approved on October 3, 2025, and the ward’s Q&A (updated April 23, 2026) describes the opening as “planned for the first half of the Reiwa 20s” (roughly 2038–2042). City-planning decisions and environmental assessment are still pending, so this article uses the ward’s wording and does not treat the opening year as fixed. What matters is that the two station areas of JR Kamata and Keikyu Kamata, 800m apart, are planned to be linked underground, so the 1km radius used here closely matches the outline of the future catchment. For how new lines linking central cities and airports affect hotel investment along their routes over time, see our analysis of the Haneda Airport Access Line in Naniwasuji & Haneda Access Lines 2031: Hotel Investment Timelines.

Nine Years of Room Stock — From 2,563 Rooms in 2017 to a 3,688-Room Peak in 2022, Then Flat

Turning to supply. Stacking properties within 1km of JR Kamata Station whose opening year can be confirmed, operating rooms grew from 26 hotels / 2,563 rooms in 2017 to 3,101 in 2019 and 3,428 in 2020, peaking at 34 hotels / 3,688 rooms in 2022. They dipped to 3,467 rooms in 2023 and have held at 34 hotels / 3,557 rooms from 2025. The nine-year increase is +38.8%, with roughly 540 rooms added in the three years to 2019 and roughly 590 in 2020–2022. Since 2023 stock has been effectively flat, with new openings and exits balancing out. The 12 hotels / 1,268 rooms whose opening year cannot be confirmed (of which 3 hotels / 147 rooms are operating) are excluded from this annual series.

By size, of the 34 operating hotels, 14 hotels / 1,962 rooms (55.5%) have 101–200 rooms, 12 hotels / 933 rooms have 51–100, 6 hotels / 197 rooms have 50 or fewer, and 2 hotels / 440 rooms have 201 or more. This is a market built up since the 2010s around a standard format of 100–200-room limited-service hotels. By opening decade, 9 hotels / 1,247 rooms opened in the 2010s and 8 hotels / 922 rooms in the 2020s; 61% of operating rooms are in buildings from 2010 or later. The relative newness of the stock supports its competitiveness in terms of room space efficiency and equipment renewal cycles.

The gap between the listed base of 52 hotels / 5,588 rooms and the operating base of 34 hotels / 3,532 rooms — 18 hotels / 2,056 rooms — consists of properties for which no selling price could be confirmed on major booking sites in the last 3 months. This includes properties whose closure is confirmed by outside reports, such as a 221-room hotel that ceased operations on July 16, 2023 (Traicy, April 11, 2023), alongside others where the reason — different sales channels, temporary closure, etc. — cannot be identified. This article does not treat non-operating properties as closed, leaves confirmation of operating status to each property’s official information, and uses the 3,532 rooms meeting the “operating” definition as the basis of the analysis.

Supply within the radius is dominated by limited-service chains: APA Hotel with 4 hotels / 726 rooms, Keikyu EX Inn with 2 / 301, and Toyoko Inn with 2 / 142. Near Keikyu Kamata Station, Tosei Hotel Cocone Kamata (90 rooms) opened in December 2025 as an office-building conversion, and EN HOTEL Tokyo Kamata (89 rooms, about 3 minutes’ walk from Keikyu Kamata Station, about 720m from JR Kamata Station) is scheduled to open on December 1, 2026. The latter promotes flexible check-in and check-out timed to early-morning and late-night flights as a base after arriving at Haneda — a design aimed squarely at airport pre- and post-flight demand. The near-term pipeline that can be confirmed totals about 180 rooms, or about 5% of operating stock.

A Price Range Made Up Entirely of Limited-Service Hotels — Ota Ward ¥14,400 in October, Zero Properties at ¥20,000+

Now to pricing. Ota Ward’s estimated settled ADR (median of properties in the ward) was ¥14,410 in October 2026, up 8.5% from ¥13,280 a year earlier. September was ¥11,723 (+5.0%), so growth accelerated as the autumn demand season began. Overlaying the monthly series by year, the 2025 and 2026 lines trace the same shape — peaks in April and October–November, a trough in June–August — but the 2026 line runs above 2025 in March–May and September–October, while its June–August trough is deeper than in 2025.

Where does Ota sit among the 23 wards? Of the 20 wards with at least 5 properties covered, Ota Ward ranked 15th by October estimated settled ADR, below neighboring Shinagawa Ward at ¥15,704 (N=35, +16.6%) and Taito Ward, home to Ueno and Asakusa, at ¥17,886 (N=176, +13.2%). The median for all business hotels in Tokyo is ¥17,491 (N=913), and Ota Ward’s business hotel median of ¥14,218 (N=50) is 81% of that. Ota’s level relative to Tokyo business hotels as a whole was nearly unchanged October to October (80% → 81%), and on a monthly basis it tracks the same seasonal shape at 12–20% below.

This brings us to the central point of the article. Ranking the 31 operating business hotels (3,472 rooms) within 1km of JR Kamata Station by October estimated settled ADR, the median is ¥14,200, the room-weighted average ¥14,300, and even the highest property only ¥19,200 — not one property reaches ¥20,000. Stacking rooms by price band: ¥12,500–15,000 accounts for 12 hotels / 1,488 rooms (42.9%), ¥15,000–20,000 for 11 hotels / 1,247 rooms (35.9%), ¥10,000–12,500 for 5 hotels / 531 rooms, and under ¥10,000 for 3 hotels / 206 rooms. October is one of the highest-priced months of the year; restated as the average over the last 13 months (October 2025–October 2026), the median is ¥12,100, the highest property just ¥16,300, and only one hotel with 179 rooms is at ¥15,000 or above.

What this distribution shows is a structure in which three layers of demand are served by a single layer of price points. For reference, the estimated settled ADR of the city-hotel segment within Ota Ward was ¥24,000 in October (N=6, reference value), and the Tokyo city-hotel median was ¥31,731 (N=109). There are no properties in that segment within 1km of Kamata Station, so guests willing to pay ¥20,000–30,000 per room for airport pre-/post-flight stays, business travelers with a booking cap in the ¥20,000s, and residents’ visitors celebrating occasions are presumably either leaving the area or settling for the top room types of business hotels within it. The empty price tier is not a weakness of the area; it points to where demand is that current supply is not capturing.

Estimated OCC and Booking Curves — October Goes from 60% at LT45 to 94% at LT1

Next, the inventory sell-through behind the rates. Tokyo business hotels (about 541 properties / about 78,600 rooms, major booking-site listed basis; the number of properties varies by day) sold through to an estimated OCC of 61.6% at LT45, 70.7% at LT30, 83.1% at LT14, 88.1% at LT7, and 95.8% at LT1 for October 2026 stay dates. Ota Ward business hotels (26 properties / 3,600 rooms, same basis) reached 59.6% at LT45, 69.6% at LT30, 82.2% at LT14, 87.5% at LT7, and 94.3% at LT1 — filling at almost the same pace as Tokyo overall. Sixty percent is booked 45 days out, and roughly the remaining 30% goes in the final two weeks — a typical pattern for a location where business bookings overlap with last-minute airport pre-/post-flight stays.

That the top of the price range stops at ¥19,200 in a month when estimated OCC reaches the mid-90s suggests, for existing properties, room to raise rates through room-type mix and plan design, and, for those considering entry, a high likelihood that inventory would sell through even with an upper tier. Note, however, that this estimated OCC is based on listed inventory and tends to run higher than actual occupancy, so it is better read for “how fast inventory sells by LT” and “how small the gap with Tokyo overall is” than for the level itself.

Zoning, Land Prices, and Flood Projections — A 700% FAR Station Front, and Every Room in the Tama River 0.5–3m Band

Now to zoning and risk. Checking the coordinates of the 34 operating hotels against zoning data in the MLIT Real Estate Information Library, 2,773 rooms (78.5%) stand in commercial zones, 663 rooms (18.8%) in neighborhood commercial zones, and 96 rooms (2.7%) in Category 1 residential zones. The JR Kamata station front is a commercial zone with 700% FAR and 80% building coverage; the Keikyu Kamata station front is also commercial with 500–700% FAR; the street linking the two stations is neighborhood commercial (FAR 300–400%), with Category 1 residential and quasi-industrial zones beyond. Hotel sites are split between the 700% FAR station fronts and the 300–400% connecting street, so an upper-tier hotel means choosing between securing floor area on a high-FAR station-front site or opting for a low-rise, small-scale concept property on the latter.

Land prices keep rising. In the 2026 official land price survey (as of January 1), the commercial site “Ota 5-1” (Nishi-Kamata 7-chome) at the JR Kamata west exit was ¥5.65M/㎡, up 15.3% — double the growth rate of 2025’s ¥4.90M (+7.7%). “Ota 5-14” (Kamata 5-chome), 170m from the station, was ¥3.18M (+12.0%); “Ota 5-17” (Nishi-Kamata 7-chome) ¥2.61M (+8.8%); “Ota 5-33” (Kamata 4-chome) in front of Keikyu Kamata Station ¥1.81M (+8.4%); and “Ota 5-11” in Minami-Kamata ¥1.38M (+11.3%). In the Tokyo prefectural land price survey as of July 1, “Ota 5-2” (Kamata 4-chome), 400m from the station, was ¥2.50M (+16.8%) — growth accelerating further at a point half a year later than the official survey. The five residential benchmark sites were ¥540,000–690,000, up 7.5–10.0%.

Of all the issues in this article, the flood projection bears most directly on design. Checking each property’s coordinates against the flood inundation projection zone (maximum scale) for the Tama River (national government–managed section), all 3,532 operating rooms fall in the 0.5–under 3.0m depth rank. Under the projection for the Nomi River, managed by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 2,296 rooms (65.0%) are in 0–under 0.5m, 533 rooms (15.1%) in 0.5–under 3.0m, and 703 rooms outside the zone. The maximum-scale projection assumes rainfall with an annual exceedance probability of around 1/1000 and differs from the planned-scale projection, but for conventional limited-service hotels with substations, emergency generators, and water pumps on the ground floor, this 0.5–3.0m band is what decides equipment placement. Applying the same test to the low-lying eastern part of Tokyo, Koto 5 Wards: 79% of Hotel Rooms in Flood Zones, Land Half of Taito digs into the results together with land prices and ADR.

In the editorial estimate from our earlier article “5 Station Areas, 29,764 Hotel Rooms: 24% Face 3–5m Flood Depths,” assuming the measures are built into the design at construction, a property in the 0.5–3.0m band that installs flood barriers and watertight doors (¥3–10 million), places substation equipment on the second floor or roof (¥15–35 million), puts the emergency generator on the roof (¥20–40 million), and moves boilers, hot-water and water pumps to upper floors (¥5–15 million) spends ¥43–100 million per property, or ¥290,000–670,000 per room on a 150-room basis. An estimate of ¥30,000–250,000 per room (varying by scale) for raising only the substation equipment is given in another earlier HotelBank article referenced there, on storm-surge inundation zones covering 81% of rooms in Osaka and 120,000 rooms across three prefectures. Ota Ward offers businesses a subsidy for flood-barrier installation covering 3/5 of construction costs up to ¥1.5 million (FY2026 guidance), but relocating electrical equipment to upper floors is not itself eligible. For a new upper-tier hotel in Kamata, it is rational to build this capex into per-room construction cost from the outset.

Conditions for an Upper Tier — Required ADR Back-Calculated from a ¥50 Million-per-Room All-In Cost

Finally, the site assessment is converted into numbers. As an editorial estimate, we worked backward to the ADR required to make an upper-tier hotel viable in front of Kamata Station. Assumptions: a 100-room upper-midscale to lifestyle hotel, 45㎡ of gross floor area per room (including common areas) for a total of 4,500㎡ (about 1,361 tsubo), construction cost of ¥2.5M per tsubo (editorial assumption), and land in a 700% FAR commercial zone with a 643㎡ site, priced at ¥2.50M/㎡ — the “Ota 5-2” prefectural survey point 400m from the station. Under these conditions construction costs about ¥3.40 billion and land about ¥1.61 billion, for a total of about ¥5.01 billion, or about ¥50.1 million per room. Flood-mitigation capex (0.5–3.0m band, ¥43–100 million per property) comes to ¥430,000–1,000,000 per room, or 0.9–2.0% of total cost.

The required ADR is ¥21,100 at a 4.5% yield and ¥23,400 at 5.0%, rising to ¥22,500–25,000 once construction-period material and labor inflation is included. That is ¥2,000–6,000 above the current top of ¥19,200 within 1km of Kamata Station (October), nearly matching the ¥24,000 reference value for the city-hotel segment in Ota Ward (N=6), and 70–80% of the Tokyo city-hotel median of ¥31,700. In other words, an upper tier is hard to make work as an extension of existing business hotels aiming for a 10–20% rate premium; the condition is a concept hotel that bundles airport pre-/post-flight stays with celebration and visitor demand, designed to capture ward city-hotel-level rates from year one. With land prices rising at double-digit rates, it is also worth noting that the timing of land acquisition shifts the required ADR by around ¥1,000 per year.

Yield by Scenario and Sensitivity — The Viability Line in ADR × OCC

We check the required-ADR back-calculation against the yields that result when assumptions change. Total investment is fixed at about ¥5.08 billion (Case A, 2026 costs), and three variables — ADR, estimated OCC, and GOP margin — are recombined. The pessimistic case places the current top rate within the radius, ¥19,200, unchanged on an upper-tier hotel; the optimistic case assumes it achieves the ¥24,000 reference value for Ota Ward’s city-hotel segment (N=6); the middle case is ¥22,000 in between.

The three scenarios span yields of 3.3–5.8%, and the pessimistic 3.3% shows that building an upper-tier property while keeping the existing business hotels’ top rate does not pencil out. In the sensitivity table, exceeding a 4.5% yield requires ADR of around ¥22,000 at 85% OCC, or ¥24,000 if OCC falls to 75%. A ¥2,000 move in ADR shifts yield by about 0.4 points at 85% OCC — more than a 5-point move in OCC (about 0.3 points). This sensitivity also supports the article’s reading that, for an upper tier in Kamata, the issue is how to capture rate rather than how to secure occupancy.

Summary — Site Assessment of Kamata Station

The 1km radius around Kamata Station is a location where three layers of demand — 54,660 workers, 168,704 residents, and Haneda international traffic — are met by supply consisting entirely of business hotels at ¥12,500–20,000. Ota Ward’s estimated settled ADR rose to ¥14,400 in October 2026 (+8.5%), and estimated OCC reached 94.3% at LT1, yet not a single property in the radius has an estimated settled ADR of ¥20,000 or more. Room stock has been flat since peaking at 3,688 rooms in 2022, and the near-term pipeline is only about 180 rooms. The Shin-Kuko Line plan, which the ward describes as “planned for the first half of the Reiwa 20s” (roughly 2038–2042), points toward linking the JR and Keikyu station areas underground.

On the other hand, the official land price of the station-front commercial site has risen to ¥5.65M/㎡ (+15.3%), and every operating room is in the 0.5–3.0m band of the Tama River maximum-scale projection. An upper-tier hotel would need to build upper-floor placement of electrical equipment into its initial design (¥430,000–1,000,000 per room) and be designed to capture ADR of ¥21,000–25,000 from year one as the viability condition for a 4.5–5.0% yield. The ¥24,000 reference value for Ota Ward’s city-hotel segment shows that this rate level is achieved within the ward, and the empty upper tier at Kamata station front is best read as headroom where supply has not caught up with the depth of demand the location holds.

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