The October 2026 settled ADR estimate for hotels in Osaka Prefecture has now been finalized. Year over year, business hotels came in at −22.6% (¥10,200, N=507) and city hotels at −3.5% (¥15,500, N=97). The gap narrowed from September’s −34.0% and −21.8%, but the comparison month, October 2025, still had the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai (大阪・関西万博) running until the 13th, so part of the narrowing comes from the baseline side. This article re-anchors the comparison on the same month of 2024, separates by hotel type whether current rates represent “normalization” or “underperformance,” and then considers how to reset price floors heading into winter.

Scope: business hotels in Osaka Prefecture N=507 and city hotels N=97 (October 2026; number of hotels in the settled ADR estimate). Price figures in this article are settled ADR estimates (the contracted price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of: November 11, 2026.

Finalized October YoY — Business −22.6%, City −3.5%; the Gap Narrowed from September

First, the finalized figures. The table below lists settled ADR estimates (all finalized values) by hotel type for April–October, the months corresponding to the Expo period, across 2024, 2025 and 2026. Business-hotel YoY was stuck in a −31.9% to −34.0% range from June through September, but narrowed to −22.6% in October. City hotels went from −21.8% in September to −3.5% in October, which looks as if the year-over-year gap has almost closed. A reading of the finalized September figures on the same 2024 baseline is available in Osaka’s finalized September settled ADR read against a 2024 baseline.

Settled ADR estimate (tax-exclusive equivalent); all months are finalized values. N = number of hotels. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

In yen terms, business hotels landed ¥2,960 below last October’s ¥13,100, and city hotels ¥562 below ¥16,100. Within the same October, the remaining year-over-year gap differs more than fivefold by hotel type, so the blanket explanation that “Osaka fell as a rebound from the Expo” is not enough to review October pricing. The next section examines the comparison side, 2025.

Settled ADR estimate for business hotels in Osaka Prefecture (years overlaid; solid line = finalized, dotted line = estimate based on current sales). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Settled ADR estimate for city hotels in Osaka Prefecture (years overlaid; solid line = finalized, dotted line = estimate based on current sales). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Last October Was the Expo’s Final Stretch — The Baseline Itself Was a Surge Month

Before reading the YoY figures, note that April–October 2025 overlapped with the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai (April 13 – October 13, 2025; 184 days). Comparing 2025 settled ADR with the same months of 2024, business hotels ran +35.6% to +53.1% higher and city hotels +27.6% to +47.6% higher throughout April–October; each month during the Expo was off the normal trend line. The size of the YoY declines therefore reflects not only this year’s weakness but also last year’s highs.

The same baseline effect lies behind October’s narrower gap. In October 2025 the Expo ended on the 13th, and the second half of the month was an Osaka without the Expo. Even so, the full month stayed high — business hotels +41.5% and city hotels +28.8% versus the same month of 2024 — which suggests a last-minute rush before closing lifted the monthly average. In other words, October’s YoY is a comparison against “a baseline containing half a month of surge demand,” a different yardstick from the months through September that were entirely within the Expo period.

In addition, even after the closing, November and December 2025 exceeded the same months of 2024 by +15.1% and +6.1% for business hotels and +14.6% and +8.3% for city hotels. YoY from November onward will be less distorted than during the Expo, but the baseline has not fully returned to a normal year either. Given this, it is hard to judge rates on YoY alone, and using pre-Expo 2024 as the baseline is a useful lens.

Using 2024 as the Baseline — Summer Underperformed, October Beat Normal Levels

Because every month of 2024 is available as finalized data, the following compares against the same month of 2024. Business hotels were −5.5% in June, −3.1% in July and −5.1% in August, falling short of pre-Expo levels for all three summer months; for that period, “underperformance” describes the reality better than “normalization.” September, by contrast, was +1.0%, almost back to 2024 levels, and October clearly broke above at +9.5% (¥9,300 → ¥10,200). For the summer YoY declines and how to set the baseline, see also Osaka’s finalized July–September ADR and resetting the baseline.

2026 settled ADR estimate vs the same month of 2024 (finalized months only; business N=495–507, city N=94–97). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

City hotels were +15.4% in September and +24.3% in October — on paper, well above pre-Expo levels. However, the number of city hotels in the sample grew from 88 in October 2024 to 97 in October 2026, and a median-based series is sensitive to changes in composition. We therefore extracted only the same hotels with values in both 2024 and 2026 and checked the per-hotel change as a supplementary measure.

Supplementary tabulation using per-hotel settled ADR estimates (only hotels with values for the month in both years). Because the basis differs from the area series, refer to the rate of change and hotel counts, not levels. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The same-hotel view changes the picture. For the 81 city hotels, the median change was only −2.4% in September and +2.3% in October, and 46 hotels (56.8%) exceeded 2024 in October. The gap with the area median of +24.3% is largely explained by the change in composition: of the 14 hotels with no value in October 2024 that were added in October 2026, 9 were priced above that month’s area median. The median was pushed up by the addition of high-priced properties; rates at continuously operating hotels did not rise 20%. The scale and timing of hotels that opened in Osaka in 2026 are covered in detail in our analysis of the 53 hotels opened in Osaka in 2026, the year after the Expo.

For business hotels, the same-hotel view gives almost the same picture as the area series. In September the median change across 427 hotels was −0.2%, on par with 2024; in October it was +6.0% across 423 hotels, with 275 (65.0%) above 2024. Putting it together: June–August was “underperformance,” with business hotels below pre-Expo levels for three straight months and city hotels in June and August; September was “normalization”; and October was “a landing slightly above normal levels.” October business hotels appear to have been less weak than the −22.6% YoY figure suggests.

Estimated October Occupancy — Price-Floor Questions Concentrate on Sunday and Monday Troughs

In October, as rates returned to normal levels, how did rooms fill? Estimated occupancy for October 2026 (target month, October 1–31; OTA-listed inventory basis) averaged 89.1% for business hotels (289–304 hotels, 47,472–49,245 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites) and 92.3% for city hotels (40–43 hotels, 9,232–10,388 rooms, same basis). Averaged by day of week, both types peaked on Saturday, with troughs on Sunday and Monday.

Estimated occupancy (OTA-listed inventory basis); observations just before the stay date, averaged by day of week (Mon, Tue, Wed and Sun: 4 days each; Thu, Fri and Sat: 5 days each). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

For business hotels, the lowest day of the month was Sunday, October 4 at 75.2%, followed by Monday, October 12 (a national holiday and the last day of a three-day weekend) at 75.7%; the highest was Saturday, October 31 at 96.6%. Only 6 of 31 days fell below 85%. For city hotels, even the lowest day, Sunday the 4th, was 85.1%, with no day below 85% all month. If occupancy stayed this high in a month when rates returned to 2024 levels, there is little need to revise the whole month uniformly; the price-floor discussion can be narrowed to a limited set of days — Sundays, Mondays and the last day of holiday weekends.

Current Estimates for November Onward — Measure with the Same Yardstick Once Finalized

For upcoming months, estimates based on current sales are shown for reference. November is ¥11,600 (N=499) for business hotels and ¥16,000 (N=97) for city hotels; December is ¥10,600 (N=493) and ¥15,200 (N=97); January 2027 is ¥9,600 (N=482) and ¥12,900 (N=96). These values may change as sales progress, and simple comparisons with finalized values should wait until month-end finalization.

Settled ADR estimate (tax-exclusive equivalent). Current estimates are based on sales as of November 11, 2026 and may change. Simple comparisons with finalized values should wait for month-end finalization. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

What to settle now is the yardstick to use once November and December are finalized. Last November and December, although after the Expo closed, ran 6–15% above 2024, so YoY will likely continue to read low. As with October, preparing to evaluate the landing on two tracks — YoY alongside the finalized values for the same month of 2024 (November: business ¥10,000, city ¥12,600; December: ¥9,900 and ¥12,900) — will keep interpretation of the numbers steady.

For Revenue Managers at Osaka Business and City Hotels — Implications and Action Plan

Translating these implications onto a timeline suggests the following steps. Each uses figures in this article as reference points; adapt them to your own guest mix and contract terms.

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Rates in the Year After the Expo

Osaka’s finalized October narrowed the gap from September, at −22.6% for business and −3.5% for city hotels YoY. Part of the narrowing, however, reflects that the comparison month, October 2025, had the Expo running only until the 13th. Keep the following three reusable yardsticks at hand.

Taken together, October in Osaka can be described as “a month that fell short of last year but regained pre-Expo levels.” Resetting price floors should start from this positioning and proceed in light of how each day of the week fills. In December, once November’s finalized values are in, the landing should be measured again with the same three yardsticks.

About the Data

References and Sources

■ Data Sources

For business and city hotels in Osaka Prefecture, we used settled ADR estimates derived from OTA and other sales data collected by MetroEngines Research (tax-exclusive equivalent; area values are the median of per-hotel estimates) and estimated occupancy for October 2026 based on OTA-listed inventory (observations just before the stay date). The Expo period is based on the overview published by the Japan Association for the 2025 World Exposition.

■ Calculation Assumptions

Both YoY and versus-2024 comparisons were calculated between finalized months; current estimates for November 2026 onward were not used in comparisons. The supplementary same-hotel tabulation is limited to hotels with per-hotel settled ADR estimates for the relevant month in both 2024 and 2026, and shows only the median per-hotel change and the number of hotels above 2024.

■ Limitations and Caveats

The settled ADR estimate has a median error of 6.6% when checked against published operating results, and estimated occupancy counts unlisted rooms as sold, so it reads higher than actual room occupancy. Because the supplementary same-hotel tabulation uses a different basis from the area series, it is not used to compare levels. The difference between its sample size (city, October N=81) and the area series sample (N=97) does not equal the 14 hotels newly added in October 2026.