The estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent) of city hotels in Hyogo Prefecture came in at ¥12,700 (N=47) in the finalized figures for September 2026, 7.8% below the ¥13,800 (N=46) of the same month last year. The year-on-year decline has now lasted six months, since April. Business hotels, by contrast, posted ¥7,800 (N=168) in September, up 1.9% YoY, and +2.8% in August, holding on to a small gain. Within the same prefecture, only the upper-tier category is failing to reach last year’s level. This article compares the figures with finalized data from two years earlier to determine whether the city-hotel decline is a “price collapse” or a “rebound from last year’s spike.” It then uses November booking pace to examine the practical issues in sustaining the small gain for business hotels.
Coverage: Hyogo Prefecture city hotels N=47 properties; business hotels N=166–169 properties (varies by month). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of October 29, 2026.
• ADR (average daily rate) = an estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying category-specific correction coefficients to the lowest-plan level each property publishes on OTAs (two guests per room, per-room rate, tax included). Checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual settled prices and accounting figures.
• Area-level (prefecture / municipality) ADR is the median of the estimated settled rates of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for two guests per room (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracks OTA published prices for about 168,000 properties in Japan, of which about 27,000 are confirmed operating)
- — The estimated settled ADR of Hyogo city hotels was ¥12,700 (−7.8% YoY) in September 2026, the sixth straight month below the prior year since April. However, the April–September average was +9.3% versus the same period of 2024, which reads as a rebound from the Expo-period spike.
- — Business hotels held a small gain at ¥7,800 (+1.9%) in September. The city ÷ business price multiple narrowed from 1.80x to 1.63x, and the gap between categories is returning to 2024 levels.
- — On November Saturdays, estimated OCC for city hotels has reached 96–98% at the latest observation, while on a weekday (November 11) pickup was +7.6pt for city hotels versus +22.7pt for business hotels. Rates on days that fill and earlier selling on weekdays are the key issues.
City Hotel Estimated Settled ADR — Six Straight Months Down YoY, but Up Versus Two Years Ago
First, let us overlay the monthly trend of city hotels year by year. January–March 2026 averaged ¥12,800, 11.3% above the ¥11,500 of the same period last year, so at the start of the year the market was running ahead of the prior year. The tide turned in April. YoY was −6.2% in April, −1.2% in May, −12.4% in June, −7.5% in July, −8.7% in August and −7.8% in September: six consecutive months below the prior year. The April–September average was ¥12,600, 7.3% below the ¥13,600 of the same period last year. The path of the finalized figures through the first half (January–June) is laid out in detail in Hyogo Hotel ADR H1 2026: City -12.4% in June, Business -0.4%.
However, 2025, the base for this comparison, was an unusual year. Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai was held on Yumeshima in Osaka City from April 13 to October 13, 2025, and during this period Hyogo city hotels pushed rates up YoY by anywhere from +10.8% (April) to +23.7% (June). The 2025 April–September average of ¥13,600 was well above the ¥11,500 of the same period in 2024. Comparing 2026 with 2024, two years earlier, the April–September average is +9.3% and September alone is +6.0%, comfortably above the level of two years ago. It is more natural to read the city-hotel YoY decline as a rebound from the Expo-period spike rather than a price collapse. In Osaka Prefecture, which hosted the venue, the rebound is even larger; see also Osaka Sep 2026 Settled ADR: Business −34.0%, City −21.8% vs Expo Year, which likewise uses 2024 as the baseline.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Estimated settled ADR of Hyogo city hotels (finalized, tax-excluded equivalent, N=46–47). For 2026, only the finalized months January–September are shown. November 2025 is not shown because its sample size does not match the other months (N=10).
Even if it is a rebound, for operators on the ground a run of YoY declines is still a run of YoY declines. The question is whether to keep using the prior year’s finalized figures as the baseline for pricing decisions going forward. Targeting the prior year’s level risks chasing the Expo-period spike and losing occupancy. Conversely, dropping to 2024 levels would mean giving up rate gains built over two years. The next section looks at business hotels over the same period for clues to this decision.
Business Hotel Estimated Settled ADR — Absorbing the Expo Rebound, +1.9% in September
Business hotels also raised rates in 2025, but by less than city hotels. In April–September 2025 their YoY stayed within a range of +4.7% to +9.6%, with none of the 20%-plus jumps seen in city hotels. Accordingly, the 2026 rebound was shallow, and they fell below the prior year in only two months: May (−1.2%) and June (−0.4%). July was +1.5%, August +2.8% and September +1.9%, back in positive territory from summer on. The April–September average was ¥7,700, +1.0% YoY and +7.8% versus the same period of 2024.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Estimated settled ADR of Hyogo business hotels (finalized, tax-excluded equivalent, N=165–169). For 2026, only the finalized months January–September are shown. November 2025 is not shown because its sample size does not match the other months (N=22).
Placing the two categories side by side month by month shows the price gap between city and business hotels narrowing. The prefecture-wide multiple of city-hotel estimated settled ADR divided by business-hotel ADR fell from 1.80x in September 2025 to 1.63x in September 2026, and in August from 1.86x to 1.65x. In yen terms, the September gap narrowed from ¥6,100 to ¥4,900. The picture is one in which only city hotels spiked sharply during the Expo, and as that spike faded, the price step between categories is returning to roughly its 2024 width.
| Month | Business 2025 | Business 2026 | YoY | City 2025 | City 2026 | YoY | City ÷ Business (2025 → 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | ¥6,932 (N=167) | ¥7,716 (N=167) | +11.3% | ¥11,012 (N=47) | ¥13,521 (N=47) | +22.8% | 1.59x → 1.75x |
| Feb | ¥7,135 (N=168) | ¥7,359 (N=167) | +3.1% | ¥11,178 (N=47) | ¥11,878 (N=47) | +6.3% | 1.57x → 1.61x |
| Mar | ¥7,368 (N=166) | ¥7,675 (N=167) | +4.2% | ¥12,355 (N=47) | ¥13,044 (N=47) | +5.6% | 1.68x → 1.70x |
| Apr | ¥7,485 (N=169) | ¥7,576 (N=166) | +1.2% | ¥12,967 (N=47) | ¥12,159 (N=47) | -6.2% | 1.73x → 1.60x |
| May | ¥8,040 (N=168) | ¥7,944 (N=166) | -1.2% | ¥13,801 (N=47) | ¥13,633 (N=47) | -1.2% | 1.72x → 1.72x |
| Jun | ¥7,290 (N=167) | ¥7,260 (N=166) | -0.4% | ¥13,098 (N=47) | ¥11,473 (N=47) | -12.4% | 1.80x → 1.58x |
| Jul | ¥7,559 (N=168) | ¥7,673 (N=166) | +1.5% | ¥13,120 (N=47) | ¥12,131 (N=47) | -7.5% | 1.74x → 1.58x |
| Aug | ¥7,884 (N=168) | ¥8,104 (N=167) | +2.8% | ¥14,632 (N=47) | ¥13,366 (N=47) | -8.7% | 1.86x → 1.65x |
| Sep | ¥7,678 (N=169) | ¥7,826 (N=168) | +1.9% | ¥13,808 (N=46) | ¥12,737 (N=47) | -7.8% | 1.80x → 1.63x |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
To summarize so far: in 2026 Hyogo shows city hotels “down YoY, up versus two years ago” and business hotels “up both YoY and versus two years ago.” It is also worth referring to the national picture. In the September 2026 operating results published by major hotel REITs, ADR was up YoY across the board (table below). These cover nationwide portfolios, not Hyogo alone, but they are consistent with the view that the city-hotel decline is not a nationwide phenomenon and stems from a prior-year spike specific to Kansai.
| REIT | Scope | Occupancy | ADR | ADR YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invincible Investment Corporation (8963) | 101 domestic hotels | 85.2% | ¥15,461 | +7.6% | Monthly disclosure |
| Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (8985) | 29 hotels with variable rent, etc. (total) | 85.6% | ¥20,468 | +2.3% | Monthly disclosure |
| Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (3463) | 25 hotels total (excluding those closed for renovation) | 87.2% | ¥11,937 | +16.3% | Monthly disclosure |
Source: Compiled from each REIT’s September 2026 monthly disclosure (nationwide portfolios; not figures for Hyogo alone)
November Booking Pace — City Hotels Fill on Weekends Too, Business Hotels Lead Weekday Pickup
Whether the YoY rate decline reflects weak demand can be checked against booking pace. Looking at estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) for November 2026 stay dates at three points — 45 days out, 30 days out and the latest observation — Saturdays are pacing at high levels for both city and business hotels. On November 21 (Sat), city hotels reached 92.6% at 45 days out and 98.0% at 30 days out, and were still at 97.7% at the latest observation (24 days out), essentially full. November 7 (Sat) and 14 (Sat) were also in the 96% range at the latest observation. At least for weekends, it is hard to say that city-hotel demand is thinning. For October weekends as well, Hyogo Oct Weekends: Holiday Lift Only for Ryokan & Resorts (+5.4pt) confirmed the same pattern: city hotels pacing high from an early stage and business hotels catching up in the close-in window.
The difference appears on weekdays. On November 11 (Wed), city hotels went from 72.3% at 45 days out to 79.9% at the latest observation (14 days out), a pickup of only +7.6pt. Business hotels on the same day rose from 61.1% to 83.8%, +22.7pt, overtaking city hotels as of 14 days out. On November 18 (Wed) too, business hotels gained +17.3pt versus +10.4pt for city hotels; business hotels have the stronger ability to build in the close-in window. This suggests business hotels are capturing demand that is decided at short notice, such as business travel.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Booking curves (estimated OCC, OTA-listed inventory basis). The horizontal axis shows days remaining until the stay date. Sample: 25 city hotels / 3,748 rooms and 78 business hotels / 9,476 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). Observed through October 28, 2026.
| Stay date | Latest observation | City 45 days out | City 30 days out | City latest | City pickup | Business 45 days out | Business 30 days out | Business latest | Business pickup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 7, 2026 (Sat) | LT10 | 90.3% | 93.6% | 96.0% | +5.7pt | 85.4% | 90.7% | 94.3% | +8.9pt |
| November 11, 2026 (Wed) | LT14 | 72.3% | 76.1% | 79.9% | +7.6pt | 61.1% | 70.2% | 83.8% | +22.7pt |
| November 14, 2026 (Sat) | LT17 | 89.4% | 94.0% | 96.4% | +7.0pt | 84.1% | 91.1% | 94.8% | +10.7pt |
| November 18, 2026 (Wed) | LT21 | 72.1% | 74.2% | 82.5% | +10.4pt | 64.3% | 73.9% | 81.6% | +17.3pt |
| November 21, 2026 (Sat) | LT24 | 92.6% | 98.0% | 97.7% | +5.1pt | 86.5% | 94.8% | 97.6% | +11.1pt |
| November 22, 2026 (Sun) | LT25 | 83.2% | 91.9% | 90.5% | +7.3pt | 75.4% | 82.4% | 85.2% | +9.8pt |
| November 28, 2026 (Sat) | LT31 | 84.4% | — | 86.6% | +2.2pt | 71.9% | — | 79.2% | +7.3pt |
Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis). Sample: 25 city hotels / 3,748 rooms and 78 business hotels / 9,476 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). Latest observation: October 28, 2026. Pickup is the difference from 45 days out to the latest observation. November 28 was 31 days before the stay date, so no 30-days-out value exists yet.
Results for months already past show the same tendency. Estimated OCC for September 2026 (OTA-listed inventory basis, observed the day before the stay date) averaged 85.8% for city hotels (22–26 properties / 3,300–3,866 rooms) and 88.0% for business hotels (74–80 properties / 8,985–9,632 rooms). By day of week, city hotels ran 90.7% on Saturdays against 83.7% on Fridays, a large gap between weekends and other days. Over the long weekend, September 20 (Sun) and 21 (Mon, holiday), both city and business hotels filled to around 100%. The monthly results also show a city-hotel profile in which weekends and holidays fill but weekday pickup is sluggish.
Note that estimated settled ADR from October onward is an estimate based on current sales and uses a different estimation basis from finalized figures. We therefore do not compare it directly with the prior year’s finalized figures and will wait for month-end finalization. Comparing months within the same basis, city hotels show November at ¥15,900 (N=48), higher than October’s ¥15,100 (N=47) and December’s ¥14,000 (N=48), so for now November is the autumn peak. Business hotels show October at ¥10,900 (N=161), November at ¥10,800 (N=162) and December at ¥10,400 (N=154), a gently declining sequence.
For Revenue Managers Running City and Business Hotels in Hyogo — Implications and Action Plan
1. Use a two-year comparison alongside YoY. City hotels were −7.3% YoY for April–September, but +9.3% versus the same period of 2024. Targeting only the prior year’s finalized figures tends to produce pricing that chases the Expo-period spike. Lay out your own figures against both the prior year and two years ago, and judge by whether your own decline is larger than the market’s rebound.
2. Do not concede rate on days that fill. On November Saturdays, the market’s estimated OCC for city hotels has reached 96–98% at the latest observation. If you are accepting below-last-year rates on days with little occupancy risk, that is where there is room to revisit. Checking rates on days that fill is likely more efficient than trying to recoup the YoY decline through weekday pricing.
3. Plan city-hotel weekdays on the assumption that “waiting won’t build much.” City-hotel pickup on November 11 was +7.6pt, a different pace from the +22.7pt for business hotels. Rather than holding inventory in hopes of a late surge, consider whether demand such as corporate, group and extended-stay business can be secured earlier.
4. The close-in window is what supports business hotels’ gain. Business hotels build heavily on weekdays from 30 days out to the latest observation. Panicked rate cuts in this window could easily wipe out September’s small +1.9% gain. With the gap to city hotels narrowed to 1.63x, city-hotel rate cuts may spill over into business-hotel demand, so it is worth regularly checking the price gap within your own competitive set.
Translating these implications into actions along a timeline gives the following. All are based on market figures as the starting point for decisions; pick and choose in light of your own booking position.
| Time horizon | Action | Decision trigger (figures in this article) | Aim |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week | Take stock of remaining rooms and set rates for the November Saturdays (7th, 14th, 21st) | The city-hotel market’s estimated OCC has reached 96–98% at the latest observation, yet your own Saturday inventory is selling through more slowly than the market | Confirm you are not conceding rate on days that will fill |
| This week | Line up your own April–September 2026 ADR against the same months of the prior year and check the sign of YoY against the market | The city-hotel market averaged −7.3% YoY for April–September, but +9.3% versus the same period of 2024. Is your own decline larger or smaller than that? | Separate a market-wide rebound from property-specific causes |
| Within 2 weeks | City hotels: review weekday rates segmented by period | City hotels on November 11 (Wed) only added +7.6pt, from 72.3% at 45 days out to 79.9% at the latest observation, versus +22.7pt for business hotels | Weekday demand builds slowly; look for room to move inventory earlier |
| Within 2 weeks | Business hotels: consider settings that avoid rushing into weekday rate cuts in the close-in window | Business hotels on November 11 and 18 gained +13.6pt / +7.7pt from 30 days out to the latest observation, growing in the close-in window | Protect the close-in rates that underpin the +1.9% YoY for business hotels (September) |
| Toward next month | Build the December 2026–January 2027 rate calendar against 2024 rather than the prior year’s finalized figures | City hotels in September were −7.8% YoY but +6.0% versus September 2024. The prior year reflects Expo-period levels | Avoid mistaking a rebound for a price collapse; set the baseline on a two-year comparison |
| Toward next month | Check the city–business rate gap within your own competitive set | The prefecture-wide city ÷ business multiple narrowed from 1.80x to 1.63x in September | With the gap narrower, work out how city hotels can reflect their value proposition in price |
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading the YoY Decline
Estimated settled ADR for Hyogo city hotels has been below the prior year for six consecutive months since April 2026. However, the prior year was inflated by the Expo, and versus two years ago the April–September average was +9.3%, so rate levels have held. Business hotels saw a shallow rebound and kept a small gain of +1.9% in September. Three yardsticks can be used for pricing decisions in this phase.
The first is the “two-year comparison.” Only by comparing with two years ago can you tell whether a YoY decline is a rebound or a price collapse. The second is “rates on days that fill”: if estimated OCC for city hotels reaches the high 90s on weekends, the YoY decline can be treated as a pricing issue rather than a demand issue. The third is “the price gap between categories”: now that the city ÷ business multiple has narrowed from 1.80x to 1.63x, city hotels appear to be at the stage of re-pricing their value proposition, and business hotels at the stage of protecting close-in rates.
About the Data
| Definition of estimated OCC | OTA-listed inventory occupancy = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. The sample is a fixed cohort (the same set of properties for every stay date) of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs. This is an estimate based on how OTA-sold inventory is being absorbed and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it tends to run high because unlisted rooms are counted as sold). |
| Booking curves | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest point. Covers seven stay dates in November 2026, observed through October 28, 2026. |
| Definition of estimated settled ADR | An estimated settled price level (tax-excluded equivalent) derived from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × category-specific coefficient, ensembled across multiple channels). Past months are finalized figures; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error of 6.6% against published operating results. YoY is calculated only between finalized months. |
| Sample N= | Estimated settled ADR: Hyogo city hotels N=46–47 (finalized months from January 2024 to September 2026; November 2025 excluded from comparison because N=10), business hotels N=165–169 (same; November 2025 excluded because N=22). Current estimates (October–December 2026): city N=47–48, business N=154–162. Estimated OCC: for November 2026 stay dates, 25 city hotels / 3,748 rooms and 78 business hotels / 9,476 rooms. September 2026 actuals: 22–26 city hotels, 74–80 business hotels. |
| Data as of | Data as of October 29, 2026. Sales and inventory change daily, so the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
References and Sources
| Document | Link |
|---|---|
| Osaka Prefecture, “Ikude! Expo — Special Feature Ahead of the Opening” (Expo period: April 13 – October 13, 2025) | https://www.pref.osaka.lg.jp/j_fusei/2503/cts0101_477.html |
| Invincible Investment Corporation, September 2026 monthly disclosure | https://www.invincible-inv.co.jp/news/upd/140120261026555713.pdf |
| Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation, monthly disclosure data | https://www.jhrth.co.jp/file/review_exceldl-bbee5c73bb593e23531d912dac842c540e46f08e.xlsx |
| Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation, September 2026 monthly disclosure | https://www.ichigo-hotel.co.jp/ir/news/news_file/file/IchigoHotel_20261026_Monthly_Operating_Results_JPN.pdf |
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