At its regular press conference on October 8, 2026, the Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) announced a “Spring ski & snowboard: book early and save! March departure campaign” run jointly with nine travel companies. It covers departures from March 1–31, 2027, and the application deadline for air-inclusive tours is October 31, just around the corner. Comparing the estimated settled ADR of 12 major ski municipalities between February and March 2026, Kutchan (倶知安町) fell −54.3%, to nearly half price, while Nozawa Onsen (野沢温泉村) slipped only −3.0%, holding close to its February level. This article examines how much this “February-to-March drop” differs from town to town, and uses the trend through April to classify whether March is the entrance to the trough or still a continuation of the plateau.

All figures in this article are estimated settled ADRs for closed months (actual-results basis) from December 2024 to April 2026, shown with the number of properties covered (N) for each municipality. Municipalities with N below 10 are treated as reference only.

JATA and Nine Travel Companies Jointly Promote “March Departures” for the First Time

The nine participating companies are ANA X, Orion Tour, Club Tourism, JTB Gaialeck, J-Trip, JALPAK, T-LIFE Holdings, Tobu Top Tours and Big Holiday. A dedicated website showcases March-departure ski and snowboard products in one place, with special prices and discount coupons for early bookings (benefits vary by company). Application deadlines are October 31, 2026 for air-inclusive tours, and December 31 for JR/shinkansen tours, bus tours and accommodation-only bookings.

According to press reports, the targets are students on spring break and skiers who want to avoid the January–February peak and enjoy a more relaxed trip. Explaining the focus on March, JATA noted that, compared with January–February, March still has capacity not yet filled by inbound bookings, and said it wants this to be a first step toward encouraging early booking and weekday travel. With travel agents moving to sell March capacity ahead of time, it is all the more important for hotels to understand, region by region, “how much the March rate moves from February.”

On the calendar side, the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan’s ephemeris for 2027 (Reiwa 9) sets the Vernal Equinox Day on Sunday, March 21, with Monday the 22nd as a substitute holiday. March 2027 therefore has a three-day weekend from Saturday the 20th to Monday the 22nd. March 2026 also had a three-day weekend from Vernal Equinox Day (Friday the 20th) to Sunday the 22nd, so the March 2026 results discussed below include one three-day weekend.

The February-to-March Drop — 40–50% in Hokkaido, 10–20-Something Percent in Nagano and Niigata

First, we line up the change in estimated settled ADR from February to March 2026. The biggest drop was in Kutchan, from ¥63,500 in February to ¥29,000 in March, a fall of −54.3% (N=21). Niseko (−43.0%, N=10) and Furano (−38.6%, N=11) show that all three Hokkaido municipalities dropped by around 40%. Shimukappu (占冠村) moved in the same direction at −46.3%, but with only four properties covered it should be treated as a reference value.

By contrast, the major ski resorts in Niigata and Nagano saw drops of 10–20-something percent. Yuzawa fell −24.0% (N=53), Hakuba −21.5% (N=50) and Myoko −18.0% (N=43). Minamiuonuma (−10.9%), Yamanouchi (−5.1%) and Nozawa Onsen (−3.0%) largely held their February levels even into March.

This ranking is not a one-off. A year earlier, from February to March 2025, Hokkaido also fell sharply — Kutchan −34.1%, Niseko −41.9%, Furano −53.7% — while Nozawa Onsen (−3.4%) and Minamiuonuma (−2.7%) moved only slightly, an order broadly shared across both seasons. The size of the drop can be read as a trait rooted in each town’s winter demand structure. Municipal price tiers in January, the peak month, are laid out in detail in ourSnow Country Hotel ADR Jan 2027.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR, municipal median. * = fewer than 10 properties covered; reference value)

12 Municipalities in February, March and April — Most Show Positive YoY in March

The table below lists levels through April along with March’s year-over-year change. Even in towns with a large February-to-March drop, March rates themselves are above the same month a year earlier in many cases. Yuzawa is +18.4%, Hakuba +24.1% and Yamanouchi +20.0%, so the March level itself has stepped up over the year. Kutchan, on the other hand, was −17.5% YoY in March, in contrast to February’s +19.1% YoY gain, widening the gap between February and March compared with the previous year.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR, municipal median, tax-excluded equivalent. N = number of properties covered in each month)

The “Type” column classifies each municipality by the share of the February-to-April decline already completed by March: 65% or more is “March Plunge,” 40–65% is “Stepped Decline” and under 40% is “March Plateau.” Karuizawa is a year-round destination where April exceeds March, and is included as a control not driven by ski demand. Note that some properties resume or newly start listing in certain months, so the number of properties covered (N) varies by month. In Nozawa Onsen, N ranges from 19 in February to 24 in March.

Is March the Entrance to the Trough, or Still a Plateau? — Three Types

The next chart shows how much of the February-to-April decline had already happened by March. Kutchan and Furano are both at 79%, meaning most of the winter-to-spring decline is done by March. Niseko (73%) and Otari (71%) also fall into the “March Plunge” type. For these towns, March is already the month that marks the entrance to the trough.

Yuzawa (46%), Hakuba (56%) and Myoko (56%) are the “Stepped Decline” type, falling roughly half in March and half in April. March sits midway between the peak season and the off-season and tends to be a month with wide day-to-day swings in rates.

The most distinctive are the three “March Plateau” municipalities. Only 12% of the decline in Nozawa Onsen, 25% in Yamanouchi and 35% in Minamiuonuma had occurred by March, with the real drop in rates deferred to April. Nozawa Onsen and Yamanouchi are towns where ski areas and hot-spring districts are integrated, and reasons to stay beyond skiing may be supporting March rates. Seasonal patterns by municipality within Nagano are also mapped out in ourNagano Hotel Investment Map 2026.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research ((Feb − Mar) ÷ (Feb − Apr). * = fewer than 10 properties covered; reference value)

Four Representative Municipalities — December to April, Indexed to February = 100

To view the differences between types across the season, we indexed the estimated settled ADR of Kutchan, Yuzawa, Hakuba and Nozawa Onsen to February 2026 = 100. Kutchan climbs from 57 in December to 97 in January and 100 in February, then falls steeply to 46 in March and 31 in April — a high, “spiky winter.” The step from November to December at the start of the season is analyzed by municipality in ourSki Resort Opening Dates 2026-27 & Hotel ADR.

Nozawa Onsen, by contrast, swings only modestly from 94 in December to 76 in April, and holds at 97 in March, on par with February. Yuzawa and Hakuba sit in between: after peaking in January they fall to 76–78 in March and drop another step in April.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR, February 2026 = 100)

Kutchan and Nozawa Onsen — Overlaying Two Seasons Shows the Types Repeat

To confirm that the types are not a coincidence of a single year, we overlaid the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons on a December–April axis for Kutchan and Nozawa Onsen, the two extremes. In both seasons Kutchan peaked in February and fell sharply in March; in 2025-26 February reached ¥63,500 (+19.1% YoY), and the higher peak widened the drop into March. Nozawa Onsen was nearly flat from January to March in both seasons, repeating a pattern of declining in April.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR, municipal median. Kutchan N=20–24, Nozawa Onsen N=15–26)

Implications for Hotels and Travel Agents — How to Sell March Inventory

Summing up the results so far, how far March rates soften varies widely by region, and so does how hotels should approach travel agents’ March-departure products, depending on type.

In the Hokkaido towns of the March Plunge type, rates move by 40–50% between February and March. This type is probably where the “capacity not yet filled compared with January–February” that JATA points to arises most easily. Offering allotments early to travel agents’ March products between late October and late December is an opportunity to lock in March demand in advance. Within March, it is effective to set prices in steps — holiday weekends versus weekdays, first half versus second half of the month — and to separate the allotment for travel agents from inventory for last-minute direct sales.

In Yuzawa, Hakuba and Myoko, the Stepped Decline type, March rates sit right between February and April. One possible design is to draw a clear gap between the three-day weekend (March 20–22 in 2027) and weekdays, with weekdays going to travel agents’ early-booking products and the holiday weekend reserved for direct sales up to the last minute. JATA’s goal of “promoting weekday travel” is a particularly good fit for weekday inventory in towns of this type.

In Nozawa Onsen, Yamanouchi and Minamiuonuma, the March Plateau type, March rates have held at February-like levels. There is relatively less need to release allotments through early discounts; rather, the upside lies in building products that capture multi-night stays and spring-break demand from late March to early April, premised on the strength of March demand and ahead of April’s decline.

Across all types, many towns saw March rates themselves exceed the same month a year earlier. There is ample room to reprice March not as “a discounted version of February,” but as a month with its own demand — students on spring break and travelers who want to avoid crowds.

Summary

Comparing estimated settled ADR for 12 major ski municipalities between February and March 2026, Hokkaido’s Kutchan (−54.3%), Niseko (−43.0%) and Furano (−38.6%) fell sharply, Yuzawa (−24.0%) and Hakuba (−21.5%) were in the middle, and Nozawa Onsen (−3.0%) and Yamanouchi (−5.1%) held February-like levels. Measured by the share of the decline through April that had occurred by March, the towns split into three types — “March Plunge,” “Stepped Decline” and “March Plateau” — and this order was broadly repeated in the 2025 season. For the March-departure campaign by JATA and nine travel companies, the application deadline is October 31 for air-inclusive tours and December 31 for accommodation-only and other bookings. Hotels should decide how to allocate March inventory based on which type their town belongs to.

Related Articles

• Ski Resort Opening Dates 2026-27 & Hotel ADR: Hakuba +60%, Kutchan 2x
• Snow Country Hotel ADR Jan 2027: Kutchan ¥49k, Hakuba ¥29k, 5 Tiers
• Lunar New Year 2027: 4 Markets Converge Feb 6–9, Hokkaido ADR 1.18x
• Hokkaido Meal Premiums: City Breakfast +20.5%, Business +10.6% Pre-Ski
• Nagano Hotel Investment Map 2026: Karuizawa ¥27K, Matsumoto ¥14K