On February 21, 2025, Polaris Holdings (TSE: 3010) disclosed that its consolidated subsidiary Fino Hotels would sign a basic agreement with Misawa Homes toward lease contracts for two hotels planned in Oshiage and Azumabashi, Sumida Ward, Tokyo. One of them, the tentatively named “KOKO HOTEL Residence Honjo-Azumabashi,” is an apartment hotel in Azumabashi 3-chome, Sumida Ward, a one-minute walk from Honjo-Azumabashi Station on the Toei Asakusa Line, with 45 rooms (planned) and operations scheduled to start around February 2028. The Oshiage property announced at the same time has already opened as “KOKO HOTEL Residence Tokyo Oshiage” on July 16, 2026. This article layers the room stock within 1 km of the station, the estimated settled ADR in Sumida and Taito wards, the price range of rooms that sleep larger groups, and the flood-risk assumptions, and then works backward to the room rate the 45-room plan needs to pencil out.

The room stock in this article covers lodging properties with 10 or more rooms (excluding leisure/love hotels) within a 1,000 m radius of Honjo-Azumabashi Station. “Operating” refers to properties with selling prices confirmed on major booking sites during the most recent three months (August–October 2026) (as of October 27, 2026; compiled by MetroEngines Research). MetroEngines Research tracks about 168,000 properties and analyzes the roughly 27,000 properties and 1.26 million rooms confirmed to be operating on OTAs.

The bottom line: if the 45 rooms are sold as ordinary rooms, the required ADR is roughly ¥15,000–19,000, which roughly matches or slightly exceeds the level of a typical property in Sumida Ward (about ¥15,300 on a trailing 12-month average). At the same time, about 45㎡ of floor area per room is the same layout as “per-room pricing” rooms, which sell at the same room rate whether two or four guests stay, and the estimated settled ADR of comparable nearby properties reaches a median of about ¥37,000. What decides the plan’s economics is less the rate level of the location than how far the property can convert multi-guest and multi-night demand into room rate through room size.

Project Overview — 45 Rooms, 2,042㎡ GFA, Long-Term Lease with Variable Rent Including a Fixed Portion

According to the disclosure, Misawa Homes will build the property and Fino Hotels will lease and operate it. The lease is planned as “a long-term lease with variable rent that includes partial fixed rent,” and in the same disclosure Polaris positions it as “highly profitable, middle-risk, middle-return hotel operation.” Building-plan data based on the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Building Activity Statistics show the Azumabashi 3-chome, Sumida Ward project as a 10-story building with 2,042.57㎡ of gross floor area, construction starting June 15, 2026, and completion scheduled for January–February 2028, with Misawa Homes as the building owner.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from Polaris Holdings timely disclosure (February 21, 2025), MLIT “Building Activity Statistics,” and MLIT Real Estate Information Library (zoning)

Rent that combines fixed and variable components lets the owner secure a floor income while also capturing upside when room revenue grows. Put differently, through the revenue-linked portion the owner takes on part of the volatility in rate and occupancy, and in exchange receives a share of the upside. In the owner’s investment decision, therefore, “the rate at which the operator can sell” feeds directly into the yield. The required-ADR estimate later in this article assumes this revenue-linked portion.

Polaris has been adding “KOKO HOTEL Residence” properties in the same trade area. “KOKO HOTEL Residence Tokyo Oshiage” in Oshiage 1-chome opened on July 16, 2026 with 25 rooms, all 42㎡ or larger, equipped with kitchens and washing machines, and able to sleep up to seven adults (including co-sleeping). “KOKO HOTEL Residence Asakusa Nitenmon” in Hanakawado, Taito Ward (39 rooms, 33.5–55.9㎡) is also scheduled to open on December 17, 2026. The 45 rooms at Honjo-Azumabashi can be read as part of a plan to build out the same room type across both banks of the Sumida River.

Room Stock Within 1 km of the Station — 88% of the 4,438 Operating Rooms Opened in 2010 or Later

A 1 km circle around Honjo-Azumabashi Station spans the Sumida River, taking in Asakusa Station and the Kaminarimon area on one side and reaching almost to Oshiage Station on the other. Within this circle, 94 lodging properties with 6,316 rooms are listed on major booking sites, of which 60 properties with 4,438 rooms had selling prices confirmed in the most recent three months and are counted as operating. The 45 rooms add about 1.0% to this operating stock — not enough to move supply and demand on their own.

The notable point is the opening-year mix. Of the 4,438 operating rooms, 1,964 opened in the 2010s and 1,963 in the 2020s, for a combined 3,927 rooms (about 88%) opened in 2010 or later. This reflects new lodging spreading to the far bank of Asakusa as inbound demand grew. A relatively new stock in the trade area means a new entrant is less likely to be buried on facilities, but also that it needs a differentiator other than price. How room stock has built up within 1 km of Senso-ji on the opposite bank is analyzed in detail in our article on Nomura Real Estate’s two hotels in Asakusa 2-chome and room supply within 1 km of Senso-ji.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (within 1 km of Honjo-Azumabashi Station, 60 operating properties / 4,438 rooms, as of October 27, 2026)

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (types follow our property classification, as of October 27, 2026)

By size, 32 of the operating properties have 50 rooms or fewer, but they account for only 796 rooms (about 18%); most rooms are concentrated in properties with 101 or more rooms (15 properties, 2,624 rooms). Because the 45-room plan falls in the numerous small-property band, it would be natural for it to target different demand through room size and in-stay functionality rather than compete on rate on the same footing as large business hotels.

The map shows operating properties as circles sized by room count, over a 250 m mesh of resident population. Properties are concentrated on the opposite bank around Asakusa Station and Kaminarimon, while the area east of Honjo-Azumabashi Station has relatively few lodging properties and is more residential.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (60 operating properties) / MLIT National Land Numerical Information (future population estimates by 250 m mesh, 2024 National Policy Bureau estimates)

The resident population within the 1 km radius is 63,749 as of 2025 and is projected to reach 66,452 in 2040, an increase of about 7.8% (versus 2020). According to the Economic Census, the same 1 km area hosts 4,695 establishments and 43,696 employees, of whom 12.3% work in office-type jobs. Business-travel demand is not as deep as in central business districts, but a growing residential population fits well with medium- to long-stay demand, such as relatives visiting nearby residents or temporary housing before and after a move.

Source: MLIT National Land Numerical Information (future population estimates by 250 m mesh); Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications / Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, “Economic Census for Business Activity (2021)”

On transport, daily passengers at Honjo-Azumabashi Station fell from 19,630 in 2019 to 14,500 in 2020, then rose to 20,350 in 2023, surpassing 2019. The station sits between Asakusa and Oshiage on the Asakusa Line, which runs through onto the Keikyu and Keisei lines, giving good access toward both Haneda and Narita airports — an advantage for inbound families with large luggage.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from MLIT Real Estate Information Library (National Land Numerical Information, passengers by station)

Estimated Settled ADR in Sumida and Taito Wards — Sumida Averages ¥14,900 for January–September, Above Taito

Sumida Ward’s estimated settled ADR was ¥14,278 in September 2026 (N=30), −3.3% from ¥14,760 a year earlier. Neighboring Taito Ward came in at ¥13,366 for the same month (N=176), +4.4% YoY. Although Sumida fell below the prior year in that single month, its January–September 2026 average of ¥14,878 was +1.1% above the same period a year earlier (¥14,716) and stayed about ¥1,000 above Taito Ward’s ¥13,912 (+1.3% YoY).

The monthly shape is very similar in both wards: a peak in April during cherry-blossom season and a trough in June–August. Sumida peaked for the year at ¥19,462 in April 2026 (+6.2% YoY), while August fell to ¥11,939 (−14.7% YoY). The depth of the summer trough is where there is room for relief by capturing multi-guest, multi-night family demand. Note that Sumida’s sample is 27–31 properties, smaller than Taito’s (161–180), so price changes at a single property move the median more easily.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (estimated settled ADR; Sumida Ward N=27–31 properties, Taito Ward N=161–180 properties)

The strength of demand also shows up in occupancy. From June to September 2026, estimated occupancy ran at 86.3–89.2% in Sumida Ward (24–26 properties / 3,126–3,181 rooms, based on major booking-site listings) and 89.6–91.8% in Taito Ward (143–146 properties / 13,247–13,647 rooms, same basis). Even in the summer off-peak, around 90% of inventory is being absorbed, so demand in the trade area itself is deep.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (occupancy is an estimate based on absorption of sales inventory on major booking sites and differs from each property’s actual total occupancy)

Price Range of Rooms That Sleep Larger Groups — Per-Room-Priced Rooms Fetch ¥34,000 Even for Two, ¥9,500 per Person for Four

To gauge the profitability of an apartment hotel, you need to look at the price gap between selling the same room to two guests and to four. Among the operating properties within 1 km of the station, we compared, within each property, 53 properties for which the lowest listed prices for both 2 adults per room and 4 adults per room could be confirmed for stay dates of November 10–16, 2026. Properties where the 4-guest rate is within 1.4 times the 2-guest rate are classed as “per-room pricing” (14 properties, 600 rooms), and those above that as “per-person pricing” (39 properties, 3,564 rooms); the medians for each are shown below.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (listed prices, lowest plan, tax included, stays of November 10–16, 2026; 53 properties with both 2- and 4-guest prices confirmed at the same property)

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (median of property-level medians for each type; listed prices, tax included)

The results are a study in contrast. For four guests, the room rate lands at about ¥38,000–39,000 for both types, or ¥9,500–9,800 per person — nearly the same level. The difference appears with two guests: the median per-room-priced property earns about ¥34,000, roughly 1.9 times the per-person-priced type (about ¥18,000), even from two guests. Selling a large room as a “room” keeps the room rate from falling on days with fewer guests and lifts the ADR level.

The same tendency holds for estimated settled ADR. The median of the six per-room-priced properties for which estimated settled ADR can be calculated was about ¥37,000 in September 2026, roughly 2.6 times the Sumida Ward median (¥14,278). KOKO HOTEL Residence Honjo-Azumabashi has about 45㎡ of gross floor area per room, so even after deducting common areas, room sizes close to Tokyo Oshiage (all rooms 42㎡ or larger) can be expected. Whether rooms of this type can reach the rate band they achieve nearby will determine the plan’s upside.

Supply Pipeline — 6 Projects / 356 Rooms in Sumida and Taito Wards Based on Building Confirmation Applications

Pulling hotel-use building plans in Sumida and Taito wards (those stating a room count) from plan data based on the Building Activity Statistics turns up 6 projects with 356 rooms, including the 45 rooms at Honjo-Azumabashi. Most are small projects of 50 rooms or fewer, such as Asakusa 1-chome (40 rooms, completion scheduled August 2027), Asakusa 3-chome (40 rooms) and Asakusa 6-chome (29 rooms).

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from MLIT “Building Activity Statistics.” *Based on building confirmation applications at the time of the survey. Project and room counts are expected to rise as further applications are filed; treat these as the lower bound of the confirmed pipeline at present.

Dividing gross floor area by room count gives about 45㎡ for this project and about 49㎡ for the Asakusa 1-chome plan — on the large side — while Asakusa 3-chome (about 13㎡) and Negishi 2-chome (about 31㎡) have a different room layout. Even within the same small-property band, plans are splitting into those that target multi-guest, multi-night stays with large rooms and those that prioritize turnover with compact rooms, suggesting the character of supply in the Asakusa–Oshiage trade area is diversifying.

Land and Disaster Risk — Official Land Prices Up 13–21% YoY; Inside the Arakawa Maximum-Scale Flood Zone

Nearby official land prices (as of January 1, 2026) were ¥960,000 per ㎡ for commercial land in Narihira 2-chome, Sumida Ward, near Oshiage Station (+13.6% YoY), ¥1,440,000 in Oshiage 1-chome (+15.2%), and ¥1,700,000 in Kaminarimon 1-chome, Taito Ward, across the Sumida River (+21.4%). Land prices are rising faster on the Asakusa side, and the Sumida side across the river is positioned to access Asakusa demand while keeping land costs down.

Source: Prepared by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from MLIT Real Estate Information Library (Land Price Publication, as of January 1, 2026)

On disaster risk, the area around the station lies within the flood inundation zone assumed for an Arakawa River overflow under maximum-scale rainfall, with an inundation depth rank of 0.5 m to less than 3.0 m. The five Koto Delta wards (Koto 5 Wards), including Sumida, published a large-scale flood hazard map in 2018 and call for wide-area evacuation outside the wards on the assumption that, in the worst case, flooding could last two weeks or more. The maximum-scale event is said to be on the order of once in a thousand years, but for investments premised on long-term ownership it is a precondition to build into the building specifications. How many existing hotels in the Koto 5 Wards sit within this flood zone is set out property by property in our analysis of hotel rooms and flood inundation zones in the Koto 5 Wards (147 properties).

Concretely, measures could include placing power-receiving equipment and emergency generators on floors above the inundation depth, installing flood barriers at entrances, and securing drinking water and emergency power so that guests can keep staying on guest-room floors during flooding. A 10-story building with kitchen-equipped rooms could also serve the local community as a vertical evacuation refuge. It is reasonable to include such measures in the initial construction cost as BCP-related capital expenditure, and the estimate below includes a case that factors in construction-cost inflation.

Source: MLIT Real Estate Information Library (flood inundation zones, maximum-scale assumption); Koto 5 Wards Wide-Area Evacuation Promotion Council, “Koto 5 Wards Large-Scale Flood Hazard Map”

Working Back to the Required ADR — ¥1.6–2.0 Billion Total Investment Implies ¥15,000–19,000 at a 4.5% NOI Yield

Finally, from the owner’s perspective, we work backward to the rate level the 45 rooms require. The assumptions are as follows, all based on public information. For land, we took the minimum site area assuming the 500% floor area ratio is used to the limit (2,042.57㎡ ÷ 5 = about 408.5㎡) and multiplied it by the official land price of the nearest commercial site (Narihira 2-chome, ¥960,000 per ㎡), for about ¥390 million. For construction, we multiplied the roughly 617.9 tsubo of gross floor area by 2025 per-tsubo costs based on MLIT’s Statistics on Building Construction Starts (RC: ¥2.026 million; steel: ¥2.405 million). We also included a case that builds in two years of construction-cost increases during the build period (about +5% per year) (on whether the owner or the contractor bears construction-cost increases, see our article on who pays when hotel construction costs rise).

On the income side, we assumed the NOI left to the owner under fixed-plus-variable rent at 35% of room revenue. Invincible Investment Corporation discloses a GOP margin of 38.9% for its MHM-operated hotels (fiscal period ended December 2024), and 50–60% is considered the industry benchmark for limited-service hotels. The picture is that, out of the GOP of an operationally light apartment hotel, about 40% of revenue is paid to the owner as rent, with about 5% of revenue going to taxes and public charges, insurance and repair reserves. Occupancy was set at 85%, slightly more conservative than Sumida Ward’s estimated June–September 2026 occupancy (86–89%).

Source: Estimated by MetroEngines Research & Consulting based on MLIT “Statistics on Building Construction Starts,” MLIT Real Estate Information Library (Land Price Publication), Invincible Investment Corporation IR materials, etc. Total investment is land plus construction cost and excludes design and supervision fees, furniture, fixtures and equipment, and pre-opening costs. Required ADR is tax-excluded equivalent and assumes 85% annual occupancy and a 35% NOI margin.

Using a 4.5% NOI yield as the benchmark, the required ADR comes to ¥15,100–18,700. Sumida Ward’s trailing 12-month average estimated settled ADR (October 2025–September 2026) is ¥15,340, so in the RC, 2025-actuals case the target is reachable at roughly the level of a typical property in the ward. The steel and inflation cases call for a rate above the ward median, but that is still well below the estimated settled ADR of per-room-priced properties seen in the previous section (median about ¥37,000). If the large rooms are sold for multi-guest, multi-night stays, there is meaningful upside relative to the required rate in the estimate.

Source: Estimated by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (a simplified estimate; actual investment decisions require a detailed feasibility study)

Moving occupancy and NOI margin together widens the range of required ADR as follows. In the steel, with-inflation case (¥2.03 billion total investment) targeting a 4.5% NOI yield, the base cell at 85% annual occupancy and a 35% NOI margin is ¥18,700; a downside to 80% occupancy and a 30% NOI margin gives ¥23,100, and an upside to 90% occupancy and a 40% NOI margin gives ¥15,400. The ward’s trailing 12-month average (¥15,340) is reached only with a 45% NOI margin and 85% or higher annual occupancy, or a 40% NOI margin and 95% annual occupancy.

Source: Estimated by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (total investment × 4.5% ÷ (NOI margin × 45 rooms × 365 days × occupancy), rounded to the nearest ¥100)

The sensitivity shows that a 5-point difference in occupancy moves the required ADR by about ¥1,100, while a 5-point difference in NOI margin moves it by ¥2,400–3,100. Because the split between the fixed and variable portions of rent feeds directly into the NOI margin, the method for calculating variable rent matters more to the owner’s yield than the occupancy outlook. Rising construction costs also work to restrain new supply, so for this project, already under construction, there is an upside in that competition from later projects in the same trade area may be milder.

Conclusion — A Plan to Capture “Sell the Room” Rates Across the Sumida River

The 45 rooms of KOKO HOTEL Residence Honjo-Azumabashi add about 1% to the 4,438 operating rooms within 1 km of the station; this is not a plan that moves the market through volume. Sumida Ward’s estimated settled ADR averaged ¥14,900 for January–September 2026, above Taito Ward, and estimated occupancy held at 86–89% even in summer, so demand is deep. The owner’s required ADR is about ¥15,000–19,000 in our estimate, overlapping the ward’s typical level, but if about 45㎡ of floor per room can be sold as a “room,” the ¥30,000-plus rate band shown by comparable nearby properties comes into view as upside. Whether the operator can convert multi-guest, multi-night demand into room rate — while building flood-ready equipment specifications into the initial investment — is the point to watch after the February 2028 opening.

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