Tracking booking pace at hotels and ryokan in Karatsu City for the Karatsu Kunchi (唐津くんち), the autumn grand festival of Karatsu Shrine, shows that the night of Monday, November 2 — when the Yoiyama (宵曳山) evening float procession takes place — had already reached an estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) of 95.4% 45 days before the stay date (29 properties, 635 rooms). The eve, Sunday, November 1, started from 68.2% at T-45 and gained up to 21.1pt by the October 27 observation. Meanwhile, the night of Wednesday, November 4, after the Yokujitsu-sai (翌日祭, post-festival day) ends, held flat at around 78% — roughly the same level as a Tuesday in a normal week (November 10). This article lines up the booking curves for the three Kunchi nights and the surrounding stay dates, and lays out how to sell the nights other than the Yoiyama night — both the moves available in the final few days and the groundwork for 2027.

Scope: hotels and ryokan in Karatsu City, Saga Prefecture (all categories), N=29–31 properties / 633–651 rooms (varies by stay date), of which ryokan N=14–15 properties / 203–218 rooms. Price metrics in this article are estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of October 28, 2026 (latest booking-pace observation: October 27).

Three Days of Karatsu Kunchi — Only the Opening Yoiyama Takes Place at Night

First, the structure of the festival. Karatsu Kunchi is held every year from November 2 to 4, with 14 hikiyama floats parading through the old castle town. In 2016, the “Yama, Hoko, Yatai float festivals,” which include the Karatsu Kunchi hikiyama event, were inscribed on UNESCO’s Intangible Cultural Heritage list. The 2026 schedule is announced as: Yoiyama on Monday, November 2, 19:30–22:00; Otabisho Shinko (御旅所神幸, the procession to the shrine’s temporary seat) on Tuesday, November 3 (national holiday), 9:30–16:30; and Yokujitsu-sai on Wednesday, November 4, 10:00–16:40 (times are subject to change; check the Karatsu Tourism Association for the latest information).

From a lodging perspective, what matters is that only the opening Yoiyama takes place at night. Visitors who watch the lantern-lit floats and leave late stay on the night of November 2, and those who also want to see the next day’s Otabisho Shinko stay two nights, on the 2nd and 3rd. Conversely, the Yokujitsu-sai on the 4th is a daytime event, and spectators tend to head home the same day. This timing of events shows up directly in the differences between the booking curves by stay date examined below. The tendency for autumn-festival lodging demand to concentrate on the opening night is shared by Nagasaki Kunchi and the Takayama Festival as well.

Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for hotels and ryokan in Karatsu City (all categories). Values from 45 days before the stay date to the October 27 observation.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Reading across the table shows how far the Yoiyama night stands out. Monday, November 2 was at 95.4% at T-45 — 29.2pt above the 66.2% of Monday, November 9 in a normal week. The Otabisho Shinko night (November 3) started at 81.1% at T-45, almost the same starting point as the preceding Saturday (October 31) at 80.0%. The eve, Sunday, November 1, started at 68.2%, the lowest of any Kunchi-related night.

Booking Curves — The Yoiyama Night Was Nearly Settled at T-45; the Eve Is What Grew

Next, we overlay the trend from T-45 to the latest observation. The Yoiyama night built from 95.4% at T-45 to 99.1% at T-34 and held 98.1% at T-30. The curve is pinned near the ceiling — a night whose outcome was decided before the 45-day mark.

Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for hotels and ryokan in Karatsu City — booking curves by stay date. Horizontal axis: days remaining until the stay date. N=29–30 properties / 633–636 rooms.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

In contrast stands the eve, Sunday, November 1. It rose 11.4pt from 68.2% at T-45 to 79.6% at T-30, then further to 89.3% at T-17 — a 21.1pt gain from T-45, the largest of any Kunchi-related night. This movement can be read as demand that could not get rooms on the quickly filled Yoiyama night flowing into arriving a day early. How to sell the eve of a night that fills early is also examined in our booking-curve analysis of Izumo and Matsue for the Kamiari Festival. The Otabisho Shinko night (November 3) also grew 9.0pt, from 81.1% at T-45 to 90.1% at T-26, but has since moved in the 86–89% range.

Note, however, that every night slipped 2–4pt from its peak toward the stay date. The Yoiyama night fell from 99.1% to 96.9% by October 27, and the rooms on sale went back up from 6 at T-34 to 20. The eve went from 89.3% to 86.8% (84 rooms left) and the Otabisho Shinko night from 90.1% to 86.0% (89 rooms left). Inventory returning close to the date is common to stay dates outside Kunchi as well, showing that even near-sold-out nights see rooms come and go until the very end.

Gains by Stay Date — The Post-Festival-Day Night Sits Alongside an Ordinary Weekday

Placing the three points — T-45, T-30 and latest — side by side for each stay date makes the uneven impact of Kunchi even clearer.

Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for hotels and ryokan in Karatsu City. Latest values are from the October 27 observation (4–14 days remaining depending on stay date). N=29–31 properties / 633–651 rooms.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

What stands out is the weakness of the post-festival-day night (Wednesday, November 4). It barely moved — 77.4% at T-45, 77.6% at T-30, 78.8% latest — and its peak during the observation period was only 80.9%. The normal-week Tuesday (November 10) was at 81.8% at T-14; compared at the same T-14, November 4 was at 78.2%, meaning the night of the festival’s final day was actually slightly below an ordinary weekday. Its 134 remaining rooms are also the most of any Kunchi-related night.

Meanwhile, the following Saturday (November 7) grew 16.4pt, from 75.6% at T-45 to 92.0% at T-22, and still holds 89.7% at the latest observation. The preceding Saturday (October 31) also rose from 80.0% at T-45 to 93.7%. Weekend leisure demand in Karatsu in November is strong in its own right; the Kunchi effect concentrates on the Yoiyama night and spills over only partially to the surrounding nights, in the form of “eve inflow” and “holiday-night gains.” How Kagoshima City filled up for its own evening festival on the same November 2 is analyzed in detail in our booking-curve analysis of the Kagoshima Ohara Festival 2026.

Ryokan — The Eve of 11/1 Caught Up with the Yoiyama Night

Narrowing to ryokan only, the growth of the eve is even more striking (14 properties, 203 rooms). The Yoiyama night was 94.6% at T-45, reached 97.5% at T-34, then fell back to 93.1% (14 rooms left). The eve of November 1, by contrast, rose from 75.4% at T-45 to 91.1% at T-19 and 94.1% at T-12, and at the October 27 observation matched the Yoiyama night at 93.1% (14 rooms left).

Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for ryokan in Karatsu City — booking curves. N=14 properties / 203 rooms.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Ryokan on the Otabisho Shinko night (November 3) rose from 77.8% at T-45 to 89.7% at T-21 and are at 86.7% latest (27 rooms left). That ryokan on the eve built up 18.7pt from T-45 suggests that stay-oriented demand — guests arriving a day early to see two days of events — is heading to inns with dinner included. Put the other way, nearly a quarter of eve ryokan inventory was still open at T-45, inventory whose fill could change depending on how it was sold at that point.

Estimated Settled ADR in Saga Prefecture — November Final Figures Show Ryokan +10.7% YoY

We check price levels using estimated settled ADR for Saga Prefecture as a whole rather than Karatsu City alone. Comparing final November figures, ryokan rose from ¥20,700 (N=90) in November 2024 to ¥23,000 (N=82) in November 2025, +10.7% YoY, while business hotels rose from ¥6,800 (N=45) to ¥7,100 (N=49), +3.7%. November is the month that includes Kunchi, and ryokan rates rose the most among property types.

Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent). November 2026 is an estimate based on current sales and may change toward month-end. A simple comparison with final figures should wait until the month is finalized.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Ryokan for November 2026 currently stand at an estimated ¥21,900 (N=88). This is a prefecture-level reference value, and it is too early to argue up or down against the finalized prior-year figure. Nor does it directly show rates in Karatsu City on the Kunchi dates, so when thinking about your own property’s pricing it is best used as a range guide: “ryokan in the prefecture generally settle in the low ¥20,000s in November.”

For Revenue Managers Running Hotels and Ryokan in Karatsu — Implications and Action Plan

Placed on a timeline, the moves for the remaining few days and the groundwork for Kunchi 2027 look like this.

In 2027, Kunchi falls with November 2 on a Tuesday, the 3rd on a Wednesday (national holiday) and the 4th on a Thursday. Because the day-of-week pattern shifts, the eve will be a Monday — a different condition from 2026, when the eve was a Sunday. Rather than applying the 2026 curves as-is, carry them forward as a pattern: “the Yoiyama night fills early; lift the surrounding nights with multi-night stays.”

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Telling the Kunchi Nights Apart

First, the Yoiyama night is essentially full by T-45; in Karatsu it started at 95.4%. The challenge for this night is not sales pace but designing the conditions under which it sells out. Second, the eve is the night that grows the most as the overflow for the Yoiyama night: in 2026 it gained 21.1pt from T-45, and ryokan caught up to the same level as the Yoiyama night. This is likely where multi-night structuring makes the biggest difference. Third, the post-festival-day night, with only daytime events, is no different from an ordinary weekday, and there is little basis for treating it specially just because it falls in the festival period. Distinguishing whether a night has an evening event, and which side of it demand flows to, is the starting point for selling the three days of Kunchi differently.

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