Lodging in Japan’s mountains and on its remote islands welcomes guests for only half the year. In Tateyama Town, Toyama, the number of properties showing prices on OTAs and similar channels fell from 13 in November 2025 to 6 in December and to just 5 from January to March 2026, before recovering to 12 in April. This article builds the monthly curve of these “properties with observable prices” for 879 municipalities nationwide, mechanically extracts where seasonally operated lodging is concentrated, and then examines how annual revenue is built from operating months and room rates, and what conditions make year-round operation attainable.

Method — Extracting Seasonal Operation from the Curve of “Properties with Observable Prices”

The method is simple. For each municipality, we line up the number of properties with an observable selling price in each of the 13 months from August 2025 to August 2026 and read seasonality from that curve. However, only the 10 months from August 2025 to May 2026 are used for the assessment, for two reasons. First, property counts for future months come out low simply because OTA listings have not yet filled in, so nothing from September 2026 onward is used. In an area like Yuzawa Town, which is a winter-peak type whose count rises in winter in finalized months, looking only at future months (73–86 properties for December 2026 to March 2027) shows no winter uplift; judging seasonality from future months gets the direction wrong. Second, from June 2026 the aggregated property base widened by about 14% nationwide (31,446 in May → 35,942 in June), so limiting the window to May, when the population is consistent, lets towns be compared on the same yardstick. June to August are kept in the charts for reference.

Four conditions are applied: (1) the maximum count in the assessment window is 6 or more (to avoid picking up small swings such as 2 → 1); (2) the minimum is below 60% of the maximum; (3) months below 60% continue for two or more consecutive months (excluding single-month observational dips); and (4) the count returns to the same level before and after the trough (to distinguish seasonality from “step changes” caused by new openings or added listings). Designated cities were excluded because they are aggregated only at ward level and show no seasonality. Evaluating 879 municipalities on these conditions narrowed the winter-closure type with an index below 0.6 down to 12. Our prefecture-level look at the same listing swing, Where Lodging Closes by Season: Niigata 14.5% Swing and Off-Peak ADR, ranked Niigata, Hokkaido and Yamanashi at the top; this article drills down to the municipal level to identify which towns within those prefectures generate the swing.

Tateyama Town’s curve runs from 11 properties in August 2025 and 13 in October down to 6 in December and 5 from January to March, then back to 12 in April and 15 in August. The trough lasts four months and the levels before and after match — a textbook “winter-closure type.” Elsewhere in Toyama, Kurobe City (17 → 15) and Toyama City (75 → 86) are roughly flat, showing that only the mountain-side town drops to less than half in winter.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

*Bars = listed active properties; line = estimated settled ADR (median). Properties covered for ADR: N=4–5 in April–November and N=1 in December–March. June–August 2026 are outside the assessment window (reference).

Inside Tateyama Town — Altitude Determines Operating Months

Looking at the town’s properties one by one makes the nature of the trough clear. The Tateyama Kurobe Alpine Route was reported to open fully on April 15 for fiscal 2026 with operations scheduled through November 30. Hotel Tateyama (ホテル立山, 85 rooms), Midagahara Hotel (弥陀ヶ原ホテル, 52 rooms) and Mikurigaike Onsen (みくりが池温泉, 28 rooms), located at Murodo (about 2,450 m above sea level) and Midagahara, have observable prices only from April to November, matching that operating period. By contrast, Green View Tateyama (グリーンビュー立山, 32 rooms) and Tateyama Green Park Yoshimine (立山グリーンパーク吉峰, 10 rooms), near Tateyama Station and at the foot of the mountains in Yoshimine, continued selling in all 13 months, and the five properties that remain from December to March are this foothill group. In other words, Tateyama Town’s “13 → 5” is a direct picture of the town’s supply splitting into two tiers. Room capacity from the foothills to central Toyama is tallied for the autumn foliage season in Tateyama Kurobe Autumn 2026: 542 Rooms Near Trailhead, 8,519 in Toyama.

Rates reflect the same two-tier structure. The median estimated settled ADR rises to ¥23,500 (N=4) in November 2025, because in November, before the route closes for the season, only the high-priced properties on the Alpine Route remain and the median shifts toward them. The drop to ¥7,500 (N=1) in December is the foothill level; even within the same town, the town-level rate moves threefold depending on “which tier is selling.” August 2026 was ¥11,600 (N=5), an in-season level mixing mountaintop and foothill properties.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

*17 properties had an observable price in at least one of the 13 months from August 2025 to August 2026; the table lists the main 14 (room counts from our own property data; the map shows all 17). Mountain huts not listed on OTAs or similar channels are not included.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (circle size = rooms; blue = seasonal; gray = year-round)

National Ranking — 12 Municipalities with a Seasonal Operation Index Below 0.6

Applying the same yardstick nationwide, the 12 winter-closure municipalities are distributed as six in Hokkaido, four in Tohoku/Hokuriku/Koshinetsu and two in Shikoku, and four of them are remote islands. The smallest index belongs to Shakotan and Rebun at 0.18, where a peak of 11 properties shrinks to 2 in winter. Rishirifuji goes from 12 to 3 and Rishiri from 7 to 2: the three towns on Rebun and Rishiri islands off Wakkanai all see prices disappear from November through April and return in May–June. Kamijima in the Seto Inland Sea also drops to 2 properties in November–December. Among mountain and highland areas, alongside Tateyama Town are Hinoemata Village (6 → 3), the gateway to Oze; Kosaka Town (7 → 3) on the west shore of Lake Towada; and Kumakogen Town (7 → 3), home to the Shikoku Karst.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

*Assessment window August 2025–May 2026. Max and min are listed active properties; index = min ÷ max. In-season ADR is the median estimated settled ADR in months when the property count is at least 80% of the maximum. 879 municipalities evaluated (excluding those with a maximum of 4 or fewer properties, wards of designated cities and Tokyo’s 23 wards). *Niseko is a special type in which the property count falls in winter while rates rise to 2.4 times the in-season level (¥38,300); see text.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team (circle size = maximum property count; color = type; position = centroid of each town’s active properties)

Near the threshold, 251 towns fall into the “moderate” band of 0.6–0.8 — for example Kamifurano (23 → 14, 0.61), Teshikaga (36 → 22, 0.61), Yamanakako (181 → 129, 0.71) and Koya (31 → 21, 0.68). In these towns 20–40% of properties stop selling in winter but the majority remain. This is the tier where “only some properties operate seasonally,” and it should be read separately from the 12 municipalities where the entire town closes.

Types — Islands, Mountains, Lakesides, Coasts, plus the Niseko Type and the Winter-Peak Type

Indexing the 12 municipalities’ curves to a maximum of 100 and overlaying them reveals a distinct shape for each type. The island type (Rebun, Rishiri) begins falling in October, drops below 30% in November and recovers sharply in May–June. Because tourism demand itself disappears in winter when ferry services are reduced, the trough is deep and long. The mountain type (Tateyama, Hinoemata) shows a step down in December in line with road closure dates and recovers when routes reopen in late April. The depth of the trough depends on whether there are year-round properties in the foothills; in Tateyama Town, five foothill properties hold the index up at 0.39. Shakotan, a coastal type, sees demand concentrated in the June–August sea urchin season and shrinks to 2 properties from December, yet its in-season ADR of ¥22,200 (N=6–8) is the highest among the 12 municipalities.

Niseko Town and Kutchan Town share the shape of the winter-closure type but mean the opposite. Niseko’s count falls in winter, from 25 in November to 19 in January, but the estimated settled ADR in the same months rises to ¥38,300, 2.4 times the in-season level (¥16,200). Kutchan likewise falls from 138 properties in October to 42 in January, while ADR in January–February reaches ¥61,600–¥63,500. In areas where winter is the peak season, the drop in properties on domestic OTAs likely reflects more properties selling out early through overseas channels or direct sales and therefore showing no price on domestic OTAs; it cannot be read as an indicator of closure. Because this article’s index is based on “observed selling prices,” these two towns must be read separately from the winter-closure type.

In contrast is Yuzawa Town, a winter-peak type. It runs at 69–78 properties from August to November, rises to 113 in December and 139 in March, then returns to 96 in May. Vacation rentals and condominiums near the ski slopes come onto the market only in winter, so winter is a peak, not a trough. Yamanouchi Town (112–144) moves the same way but its swing is limited to 0.78. Hakuba Village (201–262) and Nozawa Onsen Village (57–76) have their minimum in January and do not show a winter-increase shape. Selling year-round appears to be the mainstream model for ski-area lodging.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

*Each town’s listed active properties indexed with the maximum in the assessment window = 100 (August 2025–May 2026).

Operating Months × Rate — What Nightly Rate Does Half-Year Operation Require?

Revenue at seasonally operated lodging is the product of operating days, rate and occupancy. Using as a baseline the annual revenue per room earned by a year-round property at ¥10,000 per night and 60% occupancy (¥10,000 × 60% × 365 days = about ¥2.19 million), we estimated the rate needed to maintain the same revenue when the operating period is shortened. Operating from April 15 to November 30 (230 days), the same as the Tateyama Kurobe Alpine Route, requires ¥15,900 at 60% occupancy or ¥13,600 at 70%. Six months (183 days) requires ¥19,900 at 60%, and four months ¥29,900: halve the operating period and the rate must double; cut it to one-third and the rate must triple.

Source: HotelBank Editorial Team estimate (nightly rate needed to equal the baseline annual revenue per room of about ¥2.19 million at year-round operation, ¥10,000 and 60% occupancy)

Source: HotelBank Editorial Team estimate

Mapping actual figures onto this table shows seasonal lodging recovering lost operating days through rates. Tateyama Town’s in-season median ADR of ¥10,700 (N=5) is a town median that includes the year-round foothill properties; limited to the Murodo and Midagahara properties, listed prices are in the tens of thousands of yen. Shakotan’s ¥22,200 and Kosaka’s ¥19,800 (N=5–8) nearly match the ¥19,900 required for “six-month operation at 60% occupancy,” and Kamijima’s ¥17,600 is close to the level for seven-month operation. On the other hand, low-rate highland areas such as Kumakogen (¥4,400) and Iizuna (¥5,600) are not structured to make up for short operating periods through rates; their revenue model appears to presuppose thin fixed costs (family-run, owner-occupied or side-business operations).

This estimate is a simplified one that looks only at room revenue and excludes labor, utilities, property tax and winter maintenance costs. Seasonal operation has the advantage of cutting fixed costs while closed, but it adds the costs of opening and closing preparations and of securing staff on short notice for the season. Actual investment decisions require examination based on each property’s individual profit-and-loss structure.

Conditions for Year-Round Operation — Hot Springs, Skiing, Winter Access and Snow Removal

Even among the 12 municipalities, some properties stay open in winter. Organizing the conditions from the curves and rates, the keys to year-round operation come down to two things: “winter demand” and “winter access.” The first is hot springs. The core of the five properties that remain in Tateyama Town in winter are foothill properties with hot springs, and their estimated settled ADR from December to March is ¥7,300–¥8,300 (N=1), holding at around 70% of the in-season level. In Kosaka Town, too, the ADR of the three winter properties is ¥15,100 (N=2–3), 76% of the in-season ¥19,800, indicating that lakeside hotels with hot springs capture winter demand. The second is skiing: as the winter-peak curves of Yuzawa and Yamanouchi show, locations near the slopes peak in winter. Hinoemata Village also has a ski area and hot springs within the village, which likely explains its relatively shallow trough of 6 → 3.

The third is winter access. Island towns find it hard to create winter demand through lodging efforts alone, as this is tied to reduced winter ferry service. As reported in the case of a tourism campaign run by the Rebun Island Tourism Association in August–September that drew nearly three times as many applications as the same period a year earlier, there is room to grow by thickening the shoulders of the operating season (the end of summer). The fourth is the cost of snow removal. Winter closure of mountain roads is decided by road administrators weighing the cost of snow removal for year-round traffic against safety, and it is not a variable a lodging operator can move alone. A written opinion from the Yamagata Prefectural Assembly argues that national funding allocated under the Snow and Cold Region Act is limited relative to municipalities’ snow removal burden and that spending from their own budgets has become a fiscal strain, showing that maintaining winter access is borne by the region as a whole.

Based on the above, growth opportunities for seasonal lodging can be organized into three stages. (1) Extend both ends of the operating season (April and November; May and October for islands) by one to two weeks each. In Tateyama Town, 13 properties remain in November, and rates are highest just before the season closes. (2) Partner with foothill properties that stay open in winter, using them as the winter sales channel for mountaintop properties. (3) In locations where winter demand can be created through hot springs, skiing or winter food (Shakotan’s winter seafood, ice experiences at lakesides, etc.), year-round operation is worth considering. Conversely, in locations with neither winter demand nor access, designing in-season rates to match the estimate table above is more profitable than forcing year-round operation.

Summary

Extracting seasonal operation from the monthly curve of properties with observable prices, 12 of 879 municipalities nationwide are winter-closure towns that close town-wide in winter, divided into 4 remote islands, 4 mountain/highland, 1 lakeside, 1 coastal, 1 flower-field and 1 special type (Niseko). Tateyama Town’s 13 → 5 reflects a two-tier structure of the Alpine Route operating period and year-round foothill properties, and the town’s rate moving between ¥23,500 in November and ¥7,500 in December is a difference in “which tier is selling.” Niseko and Kutchan look similar in shape but are special types whose rates rise in winter (Niseko at 2.4 times the in-season level; Kutchan at ¥61,600–¥63,500 in January–February), and Yuzawa is a winter-peak type — the same “swing” takes three different forms. Maintaining year-round room revenue with half-year operation requires about ¥19,900 at 60% occupancy, and the in-season ADRs of Shakotan and Kosaka are at that level. Because property counts for future months come out low simply because listings have not yet filled in, seasonality should be judged only on finalized past months — a premise we want to emphasize for anyone reproducing this method.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Does a month with fewer listed active properties mean lodging is closed?
A. Not necessarily. Because properties with no observable selling price on OTAs or similar channels are not counted, the figure excludes not only closed properties but also those that halt sales for the entire month or show no price because they are sold out. Niseko Town, where the count falls during the peak season, is a typical example.

Q. Why shouldn’t seasonality be judged from property counts for future months?
A. OTA listings fill in progressively starting several months before the stay date, so the further out the month, the lower the property count. Looking only at future months, Yuzawa Town shows no winter increase, but in finalized months it is a winter-peak type whose count rises in winter. Use only finalized past months for the assessment.

Q. What nightly rate does half-year lodging need?
A. To maintain the same annual revenue per room as a year-round property at ¥10,000 and 60% occupancy, the guide is about ¥19,900 for 183 days of operation at 60% occupancy, or about ¥15,900 for 230 days (mid-April to end of November). This is a simplified estimate that excludes fixed costs and labor.

Q. Which are the 12 winter-closure municipalities?
A. Shakotan, Rebun, Rishirifuji, Rishiri, Niseko and Nakafurano in Hokkaido; Tateyama in Toyama; Kosaka in Akita; Hinoemata in Fukushima; Iizuna in Nagano; and Kamijima and Kumakogen in Ehime. These are towns where min ÷ max of listed active properties in the assessment window (August 2025–May 2026) fell below 0.6; Niseko is read separately as a special type whose rates rise in winter.

Q. Under what conditions can seasonal lodging consider year-round operation?
A. When both winter demand (hot springs, skiing, winter food) and winter access (year-round road and ferry operation and snow removal) are in place. In Tateyama and Kosaka, foothill and lakeside properties with hot springs keep winter rates at around 70% of the in-season level. In locations lacking either, prioritizing in-season rate design over year-round operation is likely more profitable.