Breaking down the December 2025 visitor arrivals estimate published by the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) on January 21, 2026 by market, Singapore sent 140,600 visitors (+3.2% YoY), Malaysia 100,600 (+40.4%) and Indonesia 81,700 (+8.9%) — all three record highs for any single month. On a full-year basis, Singapore reached 726,200 (+5.1%), Malaysia 636,600 (+25.6%) and Indonesia 640,600 (+23.8%), again all-time records. This article uses the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, broken down by nationality and prefecture, to check which prefectures gained lodging volume from the school holidays that begin in late November in Singapore and Malaysia. It then overlays the estimated settled ADR of those host prefectures and the patterns in English-language reviews to set out the operating issues heading into December 2026.

*Visitor arrivals in this article are JNTO estimates (released January 21, 2026). December’s share of the annual total is a ratio of two estimates, so the decimals may shift once final figures are released. Guest nights are taken from Reference Table 1 (by nationality/region of origin; estimates for facilities with 10 or more employees) of the 2025 and 2024 annual final figures of the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey. Review figures are aggregated by language (English) and do not directly indicate nationality.

December 2025 in Numbers — 19.4% of Singapore’s Annual Visitors Came in December

Start with the big picture from JNTO’s estimates. Visitor arrivals across all markets in December 2025 were 3,617,700 (+3.7% YoY), a record for December, and the full year reached 42,683,600 (+15.8%). Seven markets set all-time single-month records: South Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines — five of them in Southeast Asia.

Singapore welcomed 140,600 visitors in December, about 19.4% of its annual 726,200. Across all markets December accounts for only 8.5% of the year, so Singapore’s December concentration is 2.3 times the overall level. The same calculation for 2024 gives 19.7% (136,250 ÷ 691,226), meaning that for two years running one-fifth of the year’s visitors came in December. JNTO attributed December to the fact that “although travel to China, seen as good value, is growing in popularity, school holidays and other factors also had an effect.” A reasonable reading is that competition from China held growth to +3.2%, while school holidays pushed the level to a record.

Malaysia’s December total of 100,600 accounted for 15.8% of its annual 636,600. What stands out is the scale of growth, +40.4% YoY, which JNTO attributed to “school holidays and an increase in direct flights between Kuala Lumpur and Kansai, among other factors.” Its December share was 14.1% in 2024, so concentration in December also rose within a year. Indonesia sent 81,700, 12.8% of its annual total, which JNTO attributed to “school holidays and Japan’s continued popularity.” That all three markets have their December explained by the same words — school holidays — is the starting point of this article.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from JNTO “Visitor Arrivals by Nationality/Month (2003–2026)” (updated October 21, 2026; 2025 figures are provisional, July–September 2026 are estimates)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from JNTO “Visitor Arrivals by Nationality/Month (2003–2026)” (updated October 21, 2026; 2025 figures are provisional, July–September 2026 are estimates)

Plotted by month, Singapore shows a single peak in December, jumping 1.57 times from November (89,393 on 2025 provisional figures) to December (140,646). November and December together make up 31.7% of the year — a market that earns 30% of its volume in two months of the second half. Malaysia has a second peak in January–February besides December: January 2025 was its second-busiest month of the year at 75,003. This is because Lunar New Year in late January overlaps with the tail end of the school holidays, so Malaysia’s winter peak lasts longer than Singapore’s.

Note that in JNTO’s monthly table as published on October 21, 2026, the 2025 values have been updated to provisional figures: Singapore December 140,646 and full year 726,251; Malaysia December 100,582 and full year 636,575. The YoY changes and shares in this article are based on the estimates at the time of release, and the difference from the provisional figures is only a few dozen people.

School Holiday Timing — Singapore from November 21, Malaysia from December 4–5

The reason for the December peak can be confirmed in each country’s official education calendar. In the 2026 school calendar announced by Singapore’s Ministry of Education (MOE) on July 30, 2025, the year-end holiday for primary and secondary schools runs from Saturday, November 21 to Thursday, December 31, 2026, with the last school day on Friday, November 20. Junior colleges start their holiday a week later, on Saturday, November 28. 2025 followed the same structure, with the year-end holiday running from November 22 to December 31, 2025. In other words, Singaporean families have about six weeks off from late November, and a December trip to Japan sits in the middle of it.

2026 is the year Malaysia moves the start of its school year back to January. According to the 2026 academic calendar attached to the Ministry of Education (KPM) circular “Surat Siaran KPM Bil. 3/2025,” the three states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu (Group A) have their last school day on December 3 and a year-end holiday from December 4 to 31, while Group B — which includes Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, Johor and Penang — is on holiday from December 5 to 31. In the previous school year (2025/2026), the year-end holiday began on December 19–20, so in 2026 almost all of December becomes holiday. Malaysia’s +40.4% growth in December 2025 was achieved with the holiday starting only in late December; host properties should note that in 2026 the holiday begins at the start of the month.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from calendars published by Singapore’s Ministry of Education (MOE) and Malaysia’s Ministry of Education (KPM). Malaysia’s end-2025 dates are those published in the 2025/2026 academic calendar

Where They Stay — Hokkaido Jumps to 17.5% for Singapore and 24.0% for Malaysia in December

Next, we check where visitors stayed in December using the 2025 annual final figures of the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (Reference Table 1, estimates by nationality for facilities with 10 or more employees). Singaporean guest nights in December 2025 totaled 884,290, or 21.7% of the annual 4,075,800. That the December share of lodging is higher than the 19.4% December share of arrivals suggests that December stays are longer than in other months, or that more itineraries cover multiple prefectures. Malaysia recorded 361,550 guest nights in December, 17.8% of its annual 2,033,330, and Indonesia 318,900, or 15.9%.

The picture becomes clear at prefecture level. Singapore’s December ranking was Tokyo 293,600 guest nights (33.2%), Hokkaido 155,020 (17.5%), Osaka 118,410 (13.4%), Kyoto 58,700 (6.6%) and Nagano 37,460 (4.2%), with the top five reaching 75.0%. Hokkaido’s share is 12.5% for the full year and only 5.9% in November alone, so December is the month Hokkaido’s share triples. Nagano also doubled, from 2.0% in November to 4.2% in December — the lodging statistics show itineraries aimed at snow clustering in December.

Malaysia is even more skewed toward Hokkaido. In December, Hokkaido’s 86,950 guest nights (24.0%) nearly matched Tokyo’s 105,960 (29.3%), followed by Osaka 54,760 (15.1%) and Kyoto 29,270 (8.1%). Hokkaido’s share in November was 8.8%, so it also steps up 2.7 times in December. Another feature of Malaysia is that Yamanashi, at 8,870 guest nights (2.5%), ties with Chiba for fifth place, suggesting winter circuits that include the Mt. Fuji area.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency, Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, 2025 annual final figures, Reference Table 1 (facilities with 10 or more employees, estimates by nationality)

Compared with the same month a year earlier, the two markets moved differently. Singaporean guest nights in December fell 0.7% YoY (890,830 in December 2024), the opposite direction to the +3.2% in arrivals. By prefecture, the cities declined — Tokyo −4.0%, Osaka −15.2%, Kyoto −18.9% — while Hokkaido rose +15.0%, Nagano +50.3% and Fukuoka +21.4%. Because the lodging statistics cover only facilities with 10 or more employees, dispersion to small properties remains a factor, but the shift of December stays from the Tokyo and Kansai areas toward snowy regions is clear. For Malaysia, December guest nights rose 21.4% overall (297,720 in December 2024), with regional growth standing out: Hokkaido +41.2%, Nagano +55.2% and Yamanashi +37.7%. Indonesia also grew +42.8% in Hokkaido, meaning December Hokkaido absorbed growth common to all three Southeast Asian markets.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency, Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, 2025 annual final figures, Reference Table 1 (facilities with 10 or more employees, estimates by nationality)

Tracking Hokkaido’s share by month, Singapore also has a peak of 21.4% in July, showing a flow to summer Hokkaido right after the June mid-year school holiday (May 30 – June 28 in 2026). However, July arrivals themselves were 24,304, the second-lowest of the year after August (20,512), and in absolute terms July accounted for only 29,780 guest nights against 155,020 in December. Malaysia’s Hokkaido share remains high from December through February, at 20.1% in January and 22.5% in February, spreading winter Hokkaido demand over three months. Our analysis Lunar New Year 2027: 4 Markets Converge Feb 6–9 looks in depth at which prefectures will host the February peak when it coincides with Lunar New Year in 2027.

Estimated Settled ADR in Host Prefectures — Hokkaido December +19.5% YoY, Nagano +23.8%

If stays are shifting toward Hokkaido and Nagano, operators will want to know how December rates moved in those two prefectures. According to MetroEngines Research data, Hokkaido’s estimated settled ADR in December 2025 was ¥9,400 (N=875 properties), up 19.5% YoY, and Nagano’s was ¥14,100 (N=810 properties), up 23.8% — growth in the two host prefectures outpaced the cities. Tokyo was ¥15,800 (N=1,074 properties, +12.0%), Osaka ¥11,100 (N=627 properties, +10.0%) and Kyoto ¥17,900 (N=580 properties, +13.2%). Adding the November figures shows the seasonal direction reverses by prefecture: in Hokkaido and Nagano rates step up seasonally from November to December, while in Tokyo and Kyoto November, with autumn-foliage demand, is the peak of the year and December settles down from there.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and HotelBank Editorial Team (prefecture estimated settled ADR = median of properties covered, tax-excluded equivalent; property counts are based on listings on major booking sites)

Within Hokkaido, rate levels vary widely by where guests stay. Estimated settled ADR in December 2025 was ¥14,700 in Sapporo’s Chuo Ward (N=132 properties, +30.8% YoY), ¥34,200 in Niseko Town (N=10, +19.6%), ¥20,800 in Noboribetsu (N=14, +14.9%), ¥15,500 in Furano (N=13, +12.3%), ¥15,400 in Otaru (N=25, +3.3%) and ¥8,100 in Hakodate (N=80, +12.8%). Singaporean and Malaysian family trips appear often to use New Chitose Airport as the gateway and Sapporo as a base, with day trips or one-night stays for skiing and onsen; the +30.8% in Sapporo’s Chuo Ward reflects that pull. In Nagano, snow-resort villages drove the prefecture’s growth: Hakuba Village ¥20,100 (N=44, +41.4%), Yamanouchi Town ¥16,400 (N=114, +29.1%), Nozawa Onsen Village ¥15,100 (N=22, +20.2%) and Karuizawa Town ¥24,000 (N=52, +13.3%). For ski resort opening dates and how each town’s winter rates ramp up, Ski Resort Opening Dates 2026-27 & Hotel ADR organizes the data by eight towns, including Hakuba Village and Kutchan Town.

A note on listed levels for December 2026. Estimated from prices listed on major booking sites at the time of the survey (early November 2026), the December 2026 level is ¥12,200 for Hokkaido (N=852 properties) and ¥14,400 for Nagano (N=758 properties), both listed above December 2025 actuals. However, these are estimates based on current listings and will change as new plans are added and prices adjusted closer to check-in. How far listed prices sit from estimated settled ADR is compared across five prefectures, including Hokkaido and Nagano, in Snow Country Winter ADR at 40-50% of Listed.

What English Reviews Talk About — Views and Onsen in Hokkaido, Staff and Shuttles in Nagano

What Singaporean and Malaysian guests value in a property cannot be aggregated by nationality, so we used English-language reviews as a proxy, English being a main language for hotel bookings and reviews in both countries. HotelBank Editorial Team’s aggregation of English reviews from the last 24 months by prefecture covers N=52,723 for Hokkaido, N=35,503 for Nagano, N=346,643 for Tokyo, N=130,767 for Osaka and N=156,673 for Kyoto. Comparing mention rates (the share of reviews referring to each element) derived from semantic analysis of the reviews, the center of gravity of what is discussed differs by prefecture.

Source: HotelBank Editorial Team research (semantic analysis of guest reviews, English, last 24 months; Hokkaido N=52,723, Nagano N=35,503, Tokyo N=346,643)

English reviews in Tokyo most often mention proximity to stations and transport (25.9% mention rate), followed by room size (12.9%) — an urban pattern. In Hokkaido, food (15.8%) far exceeds Tokyo’s 9.1%, and views (7.2%) and onsen (7.4%) rank highly. In Nagano, friendly staff (20.6%) exceeds Tokyo’s 14.2% by more than six points, followed by food (21.8%), onsen (10.7%), shuttles (7.6%), bus service (7.6%), the character of the proprietress or owner (5.4%) and slope access (5.8%). For families traveling by public transport, a property’s shuttle and bus connections are clearly an axis of evaluation.

Source: HotelBank Editorial Team research (semantic analysis of English reviews, last 24 months; Hokkaido N=52,723, Nagano N=35,503, Niigata N=5,171, Tokyo N=346,643. “Not in top 30” means the element was not among the 30 elements with the highest mention rates)

What this table shows is a division of roles: English speakers heading to snow-country properties talk about onsen, shuttles and slope access, while in cities proximity to stations and airport access are the axes of evaluation. The lodging statistics suggest that Singaporean and Malaysian December itineraries often enter via Tokyo or Osaka and combine that with snow in Hokkaido or Nagano. So the move that fits the review criteria is for snow-country properties to communicate onsen and shuttles carefully in English, and for city properties to do the same for routes from the airport and station. In Japanese-language reviews for Hokkaido (N=446,440), family travel has a 3.7% mention rate; although it does not make the English top 30, in December, when many guests travel as families, family-oriented room configurations (3–4-person capacity, Japanese-Western style rooms) are likely to be a selling point.

Implications for December 2026 — January–September Running at Singapore +9.6%, Malaysia +12.1%

Monthly estimates for 2026 are available through September. January–September cumulative arrivals were 472,000 for Singapore (+9.6% YoY), 456,400 for Malaysia (+12.1%) and 495,200 for Indonesia (+10.3%); while the all-market total is down 2.9% on the previous year, all three markets are holding near double-digit growth. In September alone, Singapore set a September record at 43,000 (+6.2%), while Malaysia fell below the previous year at 35,300 (−19.5%). As JNTO’s commentary notes, higher airfares due to the situation in the Middle East and typhoon-related flight cancellations make month-to-month swings large. Even so, December, driven by school holidays, is structural demand, so a baseline at or above 2025 levels seems reasonable.

There are three issues host properties should sort out ahead of December 2026. First, with Malaysia’s year-end school holiday starting on December 4–5, the demand ramp-up that began around December 20 in 2025 may come more than two weeks earlier, so it pays to set up inventory and pricing for the first and second weeks of December early. Second, given that Singaporean December guest nights grew YoY in Hokkaido (+15.0%) and Nagano (+50.3%) but fell in Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto, city properties have room to position December as “the one or two nights Southeast Asian families stay on their way to the snow,” and win back length of stay with airport and station routing and multi-night discounts. Third, for properties in Hokkaido and Nagano, the recent December performance — estimated settled ADR up 19.5% and 23.8% YoY — suggests that strengthening the appeal of onsen, shuttles and food, which English reviews value, could lead to further rate gains.

To sum up, December demand from Singapore and Malaysia rides on a predictable calendar — school holidays — and in 2025 the lodging statistics show it added volume to Hokkaido and Nagano. In 2026, Malaysia’s holiday starts at the beginning of the month, so building winter capacity across the whole of December is an opportunity for properties in both prefectures. City properties, too, have room to change how they earn in December by clearly communicating in English their role as the starting and ending point for families heading to the snow.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Why are visitors from Singapore concentrated in December?
Because Singapore’s Ministry of Education year-end school holiday runs for about six weeks, from late November to December 31, and family trips are scheduled in that window. December 2025 saw 140,600 visitors, about 19.4% of the year, and 2024 was 19.7% — two years in a row with one-fifth of the year arriving in December.

Q. Which prefectures do Singaporean and Malaysian guests stay in during December?
In the 2025 final figures of the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, Singaporean guest nights in December were led by Tokyo (33.2%), Hokkaido (17.5%), Osaka (13.4%), Kyoto (6.6%) and Nagano (4.2%); Malaysian guest nights by Tokyo (29.3%), Hokkaido (24.0%), Osaka (15.1%) and Kyoto (8.1%). Hokkaido’s share roughly triples in December from 5.9% and 8.8% in November.

Q. Are there any calendar changes that affect the December 2026 outlook?
Under the 2026 academic calendar of Malaysia’s Ministry of Education, the year-end school holiday starts on December 4–5. At the end of 2025 it started on December 19–20, so in 2026 almost all of December is holiday and the demand ramp-up may come earlier.

Q. How much did December rates rise in the host prefectures?
On MetroEngines Research’s estimated settled ADR, Hokkaido was ¥9,421 in December 2025 (N=875 properties, +19.5% YoY) and Nagano ¥14,112 (N=810 properties, +23.8%). Growth was larger than in Tokyo (+12.0%) and Osaka (+10.0%); at municipal level, Sapporo’s Chuo Ward (+30.8%) and Hakuba Village (+41.4%) stand out.

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