Japan’s visitor arrivals for September 2026 came to 3,103,700 (estimate), down 5.0% year on year, according to figures the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) released on October 21. Within that total, South Korea sent 842,300 visitors (+25.6%) and Taiwan 595,600 (+13.0%), both record highs for a September. The January–September cumulative total reached 30,730,200 (−2.9%), topping 30 million by September for the second year running. This article first confirms the market-by-market changes in JNTO’s primary data, then uses the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (nationality-based guest nights) to identify the prefectures where the growing markets stay, and finally examines how well those prefectures’ September estimated OCC and finalized settled ADR held up.
• ADR (average daily rate) = an estimated settled room rate (tax-exclusive equivalent), calculated by applying segment-specific correction factors to the lowest plan rate each property publishes on OTAs (per room, double occupancy, tax included). Benchmarked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual transaction prices and accounting figures.
• Area-level ADR (prefecture or municipality) is the median of the estimated settled rates of the covered properties (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for double occupancy (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuous tracking of OTA published rates for about 168,000 properties in Japan, of which about 27,000 are confirmed operating)
• Guest nights by nationality are Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey totals for facilities with 20 or more rooms; the 2026 figures are estimates using facilities as of January 1, 2026 as the population. The 2025 final figures cover facilities with 10 or more employees, so the covered facilities and population differ, and year-on-year changes should be read as reference values only.
- — 3,103,700, −5.0%: Japan’s visitor arrivals in September 2026 (JNTO estimate). China fell to 430,800 (−44.5%), while seven markets including South Korea and Taiwan set September records.
- — Korea +28.3%, Taiwan +21.7%: guest nights by nationality for the same month (Japan Tourism Agency, first preliminary figures) grew faster than arrivals, and the two markets’ gain of 628,880 guest nights offset about 84% of China’s decline.
- — Host prefectures: Hokkaido, Fukuoka, Okinawa, Oita, Miyagi: in the August second preliminary figures, the seven September-record markets account for 55.9–68.5% of foreign guest nights there, far above the national average of 36.5%.
- — Estimated OCC 78.8–90.3%: September 2026 stay-date average for those five prefectures (OTA-listed inventory basis, estimate). On September 20, during the five-day holiday, Fukuoka and Oita reached 99.9%.
- — Settled ADR +4.5% to +10.0%: finalized September ADR exceeded the prior year in all five prefectures, led by Okinawa +10.0% (N=515 properties) and Fukuoka +9.8% (N=477 properties).
September Arrivals at 3,103,700 — Seven Markets Hit September Records; Read the Decline Factors as JNTO’s Explanation
Start with JNTO’s published estimate itself. September’s total of 3,103,700 was about 163,500 below the same month last year (3,267,228), the second straight month of year-on-year decline. The decline was far from uniform, however: China fell sharply to 430,800 (−44.5%), while seven markets—South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Mexico, Russia and the Middle East—recorded their highest-ever September figures. On the downside, JNTO cites “higher airfares due to the situation in the Middle East, as well as flight reductions and typhoon-related cancellations”; on the upside, it notes that the Asian Games held in Aichi Prefecture brought athletes and officials to Japan. These are JNTO’s explanations; this article does not assert causation.
In terms of scale, South Korea (842,300) and Taiwan (595,600) alone total 1,437,900, or 46.3% of all arrivals. The two markets combined for 1,197,545 in September last year, so together they grew by about 240,400. China’s decline was about 344,900, meaning the two markets’ gain covers roughly 70% of it. Across all seven record markets the gain is about 258,200, offsetting around 75% of China’s drop. The definition of “visitor arrivals” (based on Ministry of Justice immigration statistics, excluding permanent residents and others, including shore-pass landings, and excluding crew) and the difference between estimates and final figures are covered in our explainer article, so they are omitted here.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from JNTO “Visitor Arrivals (September 2026 estimates)” monthly estimates
| Market | Sept 2026 | YoY | September record |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 842,300 | +25.6% | ● |
| Taiwan | 595,600 | +13.0% | ● |
| China | 430,800 | −44.5% | |
| United States | 217,500 | −3.2% | |
| Hong Kong | 145,000 | −3.0% | |
| Australia | 90,700 | −6.1% | |
| Canada | 49,300 | −11.4% | |
| Germany | 46,100 | −12.7% | |
| Vietnam | 45,800 | −9.2% | |
| United Kingdom | 45,200 | −4.1% | |
| Thailand | 44,800 | −12.6% | |
| Indonesia | 44,000 | −0.2% | |
| Singapore | 43,000 | +6.2% | ● |
| Middle East | 37,700 | +27.0% | ● |
| India | 27,600 | +8.7% | ● |
| Russia | 23,700 | +11.9% | ● |
| Mexico | 22,300 | +13.0% | ● |
| Total | 3,103,700 | −5.0% | Jan–Sep total 30,730,200 (−2.9%) |
Source: JNTO “Visitor Arrivals (September 2026 estimates)” (October 21, 2026). Excerpt of the 12 major markets and the 7 September-record markets
Lodging Moves the Same Way — September Guest Nights: Korea +28.3%, Taiwan +21.7%
Visitor arrivals count people entering Japan, not lodging demand itself. Comparing guest nights by nationality from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey for September 2026 (first preliminary figures, facilities with 20+ rooms, released October 30) with last September’s final figures, total foreign guest nights were 10,386,730, down 5.2%—almost the same as the 5.0% fall in arrivals. Meanwhile South Korea logged 1,470,930 guest nights (+28.3%) and Taiwan 1,709,280 (+21.7%), with stays growing faster than arrivals (+25.6% and +13.0%). Taiwan’s growth rate running more than 8 points above its arrivals growth suggests longer itineraries or more regional stays, but the first preliminary release only covers national figures, so prefecture-level confirmation comes from the August data in the next section.
China logged 1,314,790 guest nights (−36.4%), a smaller fall than its −44.5% in arrivals. The decline was 752,170 guest nights; against it, Korea’s gain of 324,580 and Taiwan’s gain of 304,300 add up to 628,880, about 84% of China’s drop. Adding the gains from Singapore (+4.9%), India (+15.6%) and Russia (+16.0%) brings the offset to about 89%, so in terms of total lodging volume, September can be read as a month in which growth in other markets nearly cancelled out China’s decline. The US logged 1,040,230 guest nights (−11.6%), a steeper fall in stays than in arrivals (−3.2%).
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from JNTO “Visitor Arrivals (September 2026 estimates)” / Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, September 2026 (first preliminary figures, facilities with 20+ rooms) and 2025 final figures (facilities with 10+ employees)
Where Do the Growing Markets Stay? — August Second Preliminary Figures by Nationality and Prefecture
Prefecture-level guest nights by nationality are first published in the second preliminary release, so the latest available data is for August 2026 (released October 30). By prefecture, Korean guest nights rank Hokkaido 319,230 (20.4% of the national total), Tokyo 279,980, Fukuoka 255,710, Osaka 243,020 and Okinawa 103,570; Taiwanese guest nights rank Tokyo 398,210 (20.0%), Okinawa 278,310, Osaka 231,430, Hokkaido 199,550 and Fukuoka 150,800. The two markets combined rose 21.0% year on year nationally, but by prefecture the highest growth rates are outside the Tokyo area: Oita +48.2%, Miyagi +38.2%, Hyogo +52.4% and Osaka +34.4%.
To gauge which prefectures act as hosts, a useful indicator is the share of each prefecture’s foreign guest nights accounted for by the seven September-record markets (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Russia, the Middle East and Mexico). Fukuoka is at 64.8%, Hokkaido 62.0%, Okinawa 59.8%, Oita 68.5% and Miyagi 55.9%—all at least 19 points above the national average (36.5%). China’s share in these prefectures was low to begin with (as of August 2025: Hokkaido 17.0%, Fukuoka 17.7%, Okinawa 17.8%, Oita 12.1%) and fell further to 6.8–11.5% in August 2026; even so, foreign guest nights held at or above the prior year at the prefecture level: Hokkaido +10.3%, Oita +23.3%, Miyagi +32.0% and Okinawa +0.7%. The “18 growing prefectures” pattern seen in our article on the July regional share appears to have continued into August.
| Prefecture | Korea (guest nights) | YoY | Taiwan (guest nights) | YoY | 7-market share | China share Aug 2025 → Aug 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaido | 319,230 | +23.8% | 199,550 | +3.8% | 62.0% | 17.0% → 9.4% |
| Tokyo | 279,980 | +20.1% | 398,210 | +15.7% | 25.3% | 28.6% → 17.6% |
| Fukuoka | 255,710 | +14.6% | 150,800 | +9.7% | 64.8% | 17.7% → 11.5% |
| Osaka | 243,020 | +52.3% | 231,430 | +19.6% | 33.4% | 39.7% → 19.3% |
| Okinawa | 103,570 | +20.9% | 278,310 | +17.6% | 59.8% | 17.8% → 6.8% |
| Kyoto | 47,670 | −0.9% | 109,250 | +20.1% | 20.3% | 31.5% → 13.9% |
| Aichi | 43,410 | +24.3% | 82,980 | +7.1% | 48.1% | 39.3% → 17.1% |
| Chiba | 16,000 | +30.1% | 49,140 | +9.6% | 27.9% | 31.1% → 15.1% |
| Hyogo | 18,880 | +81.4% | 44,310 | +42.7% | 52.4% | 43.2% → 20.1% |
| Oita | 23,340 | +40.6% | 24,940 | +56.2% | 68.5% | 12.1% → 9.4% |
| Miyagi | 4,250 | +66.7% | 48,750 | +36.1% | 55.9% | 15.1% → 11.7% |
| Kanagawa | 11,560 | +20.7% | 31,700 | +36.5% | 20.6% | 25.1% → 18.9% |
| Japan total | 1,568,140 | +27.9% | 1,986,560 | +16.1% | 36.5% | 28.6% → 15.1% |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, August 2026 (second preliminary figures) Reference Table 1 (facilities with 20+ rooms) and August 2025 final figures (facilities with 10+ employees). 7 markets = South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Russia, Middle East, Mexico. YoY figures are reference values because the populations differ
September Estimated OCC in Host Prefectures — Hokkaido 90.3%, Fukuoka 88.3%, Okinawa 86.7%
Estimated OCC shows how full September stay dates were in the prefectures hosting the growing markets. According to MetroEngines Research, the September 2026 stay-date average was 90.3% in Hokkaido (679 properties / 53,149 rooms covered, major booking site listing basis), 88.3% in Fukuoka (381 properties / 28,935 rooms), 86.7% in Okinawa (708 properties / 36,220 rooms), 78.8% in Oita (337 properties / 9,817 rooms) and 87.9% in Miyagi (168 properties / 13,217 rooms). For comparison, Tokyo was 89.8% (805 properties / 104,583 rooms) and Aichi, host of the Asian Games, 90.4% (328 properties / 33,635 rooms). Estimated OCC has only been tracked since March 2026 and has no prior-year values, so the comparison here is limited to levels.
Day by day, all four prefectures peak over the five-day holiday from Saturday, September 19 to Wednesday, September 23. Fukuoka hit 99.9% on Sunday, September 20, and Oita 99.9% on the same day, meaning nearly all inventory listed on major booking sites was sold; Hokkaido also climbed to 97.9% on September 20. Okinawa’s holiday peak of 95.2% was gentler than elsewhere, and it stayed within an 80–90% band throughout the month, suggesting that this resort-led prefecture sold steadily on weekdays too. Oita’s weekday trough sits at 67–73%, giving it the widest gap between holiday and weekday. As shown in our article on Korean-language reviews in Fukuoka and Oita, Korean visitors’ winter peak falls in December–February, and September weekdays are the trough ahead of it.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research. Occupancy (OTA-listed inventory basis, estimate). Hokkaido 679 properties / 53,149 rooms, Fukuoka 381 / 28,935, Okinawa 708 / 36,220, Oita 337 / 9,817 (major booking site listing basis)
| Prefecture | Est. OCC (Sept avg) | Properties | Rooms | Business | Resort | Ryokan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaido | 90.3% | 679 | 53,149 | 92.8% N=222 | 85.7% N=84 | 88.1% N=164 |
| Fukuoka | 88.3% | 381 | 28,935 | 90.0% N=175 | 77.8% N=12 | 72.6% N=52 |
| Okinawa | 86.7% | 708 | 36,220 | 86.7% N=134 | 87.7% N=182 | — |
| Oita | 78.8% | 337 | 9,817 | 81.1% N=35 | 67.9% N=29 | 81.0% N=179 |
| Miyagi | 87.9% | 168 | 13,217 | 91.6% N=58 | 78.5% N=10 | 80.5% N=62 |
| Hyogo | 86.3% | 354 | 17,641 | 88.0% N=74 | 82.6% N=33 | 83.9% N=111 |
| Tokyo | 89.8% | 805 | 104,583 | 90.3% N=539 | 85.4% N=12 | 91.6% N=19 |
| Aichi | 90.4% | 328 | 33,635 | 91.4% N=172 | — | 83.5% N=77 |
| Osaka | 80.4% | 410 | 59,647 | 80.0% N=285 | — | 82.1% N=21 |
| Kyoto | 84.0% | 566 | 31,989 | 84.8% N=190 | — | 85.9% N=81 |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research. September 2026 stay-date average. Occupancy (OTA-listed inventory basis, estimate); segments with fewer than 10 properties are shown as “—”. These are estimates based on the sell-through of inventory sold on OTAs and differ from properties’ actual overall occupancy
Finalized September Settled ADR — Okinawa +10.0%, Fukuoka +9.8%, Hokkaido +4.5%
With occupancy running high, how did rates move? September stay dates are now final, so we compare settled ADR on the same finalized basis as the prior year. Okinawa was ¥12,000 (N=515 properties), up 10.0% year on year; Fukuoka ¥11,600 (N=477), +9.8%; Miyagi ¥9,700 (N=297), +7.4%; Oita ¥14,000 (N=470), +5.7%; and Hokkaido ¥11,500 (N=960), +4.5%. All five of these prefectures, where Korean and Taiwanese stays grew by double digits, also saw rates above the prior year. Tokyo was ¥13,700 (N=1,139), +1.9%, and Kyoto ¥14,200 (N=604), +1.1%—in the prefectures where foreign guest nights fell year on year, rate growth was also modest.
By segment, Fukuoka’s city hotels were ¥18,500, up 21.9% (N=43 properties), and its business hotels ¥11,000, up 9.9% (N=342)—the higher the segment, the bigger the gain. Okinawa grew across segments, with resort hotels at ¥16,800, +7.3% (N=282), and business hotels at ¥8,800, +9.4% (N=197). In Hokkaido, business hotels led at ¥10,800, +8.9% (N=437), while resorts (+0.8%, N=147) and city hotels (+0.1%, N=75) were flat. Fukuoka’s segment detail is covered in our article on the finalized September figures.
The two prefectures with the largest year-on-year swings nationwide can be explained by one-off factors. Aichi posted ¥12,400 (N=505 properties), +45.9%, the highest growth of all 47 prefectures, coinciding with the Asian Games (September 19 – October 4). Osaka was ¥9,300 (N=655), −32.4%, but last September fell in the final stretch of Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, which set a high rate baseline; its estimated OCC of 80.4% (September 2026 stay-date average, 410 properties / 59,647 rooms covered) shows occupancy itself held up. Osaka also saw the largest growth in Korean guest nights in August (+52.3%), leaving room to read it as a host prefecture once the rate baseline normalizes.
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, August 2026 (second preliminary figures) and August 2025 final figures / MetroEngines Research. ADR is settled ADR (YoY between finalized months). Aichi (+45.9%) and Osaka (−32.4%) are excluded from the chart due to one-off factors and discussed in the text
| Prefecture | Sept 2026 settled ADR | Sept 2025 | YoY | N (2026/2025) | Korea + Taiwan guest nights Aug YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okinawa | ¥12,040 | ¥10,947 | +10.0% | 515/491 | +18.5% |
| Fukuoka | ¥11,594 | ¥10,561 | +9.8% | 477/460 | +12.7% |
| Chiba | ¥10,680 | ¥9,820 | +8.8% | 424/405 | +14.0% |
| Miyagi | ¥9,659 | ¥8,994 | +7.4% | 297/291 | +38.2% |
| Oita | ¥14,027 | ¥13,266 | +5.7% | 470/453 | +48.2% |
| Kanagawa | ¥14,154 | ¥13,398 | +5.6% | 579/564 | +31.9% |
| Hokkaido | ¥11,456 | ¥10,958 | +4.5% | 960/912 | +15.3% |
| Hyogo | ¥12,749 | ¥12,439 | +2.5% | 547/542 | +52.4% |
| Tokyo | ¥13,660 | ¥13,405 | +1.9% | 1139/1106 | +17.5% |
| Kyoto | ¥14,168 | ¥14,017 | +1.1% | 604/581 | +12.8% |
| Aichi | ¥12,372 | ¥8,478 | +45.9% | 505/501 | +12.4% |
| Osaka | ¥9,310 | ¥13,764 | −32.4% | 655/643 | +34.4% |
Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (settled ADR, finalized-month basis) / Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey. ADR in this article is an estimate (median error about 7% against REIT-disclosed results). REIT-disclosed ADR is shown excluding consumption tax, and the settled ADR in this article is likewise at a tax-exclusive equivalent level
Analysis — How Far Did the Growing Markets Offset China’s Decline?
To sum up, behind the “total −5.0%” headline, September was a month in which the composition of lodging demand shifted. Nationwide foreign guest nights fell 5.2%, but South Korea and Taiwan added 628,880 guest nights, offsetting about 84% of China’s 752,170 decline. Hokkaido, Tokyo, Fukuoka, Osaka and Okinawa account for 76.6% of Korean and 63.3% of Taiwanese stays, so the hosts are geographically concentrated. That is why, in the host prefectures, foreign guest nights held at prior-year levels even as China’s share dropped to around 10%, and September 2026 estimated OCC landed at 78–90% with settled ADR up 4.5% to 10.0%.
Even among host prefectures, however, rate growth differs. Fukuoka and Okinawa are around +10%, Miyagi and Oita +6–7%, and Hokkaido +4.5%. Hokkaido has the most Korean guest nights in Japan, up 23.8%, but Taiwan grew only 3.8%; by segment, business hotels led at +8.9% while resorts and city hotels were flat. The higher a prefecture’s share of Korean guests, the more volume is absorbed through occupancy in the lower-rate business segment, with rates moving there before the upper segments—a sequence consistent with the winter pattern seen in our article on Korean visitors in January. As covered in a separate article on the depth of Traditional Chinese reviews in Okinawa, prefectures with a high Taiwanese share tend to see rate gains reach the resort segment as well.
Looking ahead to October and beyond, the higher airfares and flight reductions JNTO cited as decline factors mainly apply to long-haul markets and routes via the Middle East, a separate dynamic from the growth in short-haul markets such as South Korea and Taiwan. October estimates are scheduled for release on November 18, and the next point to check is whether the pattern seen here—short-haul market growth supporting rates in host prefectures—continues through the autumn travel season.
Implications for Hotels — Match Pricing to How the Growing Markets Stay
For properties in host prefectures, the September data points to three opportunities. First, Korean and Taiwanese stays are growing faster than arrivals, which likely means longer multi-night and regional stays; there is room to revisit multi-night plans and pricing from the second night onward. Second, at the holiday peak several prefectures saw days on which inventory on major booking sites was almost fully sold, so tiered pricing for the weekdays around holidays, and allocating inventory to early-booking Korean and Taiwanese guests, offer a chance to spread strong holiday demand into weekdays. Third, in prefectures where upper-segment rates are moving—such as Fukuoka city hotels (+21.9%) and Okinawa resorts (+7.3%)—it is an easier moment to reflect differences in breakfast and room type in pricing.
All three come down to one point: match pricing to how the growing markets stay. The timing of a recovery in the Chinese market cannot be judged from the data here, but at least in September the host prefectures kept both occupancy and rates above prior-year levels on the strength of other markets. That performance should serve as the pricing benchmark heading into the winter Korean peak (December–February) and Lunar New Year (February 6, 2027).
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. How many visitors came to Japan in September 2026?
A. According to the estimate the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) published on October 21, 2026, there were 3,103,700 visitors, down 5.0% year on year. The January–September cumulative total was 30,730,200 (−2.9%), exceeding 30 million by September for the second year in a row.
Q. Which markets set records in September?
A. According to JNTO’s press release, seven markets posted their highest-ever September figures: South Korea (842,300, +25.6%), Taiwan (595,600, +13.0%), Singapore (43,000, +6.2%), India (27,600, +8.7%), Mexico (22,300, +13.0%), Russia (23,700, +11.9%) and the Middle East (37,700, +27.0%).
Q. Which prefectures host the most Korean and Taiwanese guests?
A. In the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey for August 2026 (second preliminary figures), Korean guest nights are highest in Hokkaido, Tokyo, Fukuoka, Osaka and Okinawa, and Taiwanese guest nights in Tokyo, Okinawa, Osaka, Hokkaido and Fukuoka, in that order. The top five prefectures account for 76.6% of Korean and 63.3% of Taiwanese guest nights nationwide. Year-on-year growth is highest outside the Tokyo area, in prefectures such as Oita (+48.2%), Hyogo (+52.4%) and Miyagi (+38.2%).
Q. How did occupancy and rates perform in September 2026 in the prefectures hosting Korean and Taiwanese guests?
A. MetroEngines Research’s estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis, estimate; September 2026 stay-date average) was 90.3% in Hokkaido (679 properties), 88.3% in Fukuoka (381), 87.9% in Miyagi (168), 86.7% in Okinawa (708) and 78.8% in Oita (337). Finalized September settled ADR rose year on year in all five prefectures: Okinawa +10.0%, Fukuoka +9.8%, Miyagi +7.4%, Oita +5.7% and Hokkaido +4.5%.
Q. How much of China’s decline was offset by growth in other markets?
A. In the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey for September 2026 (first preliminary figures), Chinese guest nights fell by 752,170 from a year earlier. Meanwhile, gains from South Korea (+324,580) and Taiwan (+304,300) totaled 628,880 guest nights, about 84% of the decline. Because the prior-year values are 2025 final figures with a different population, please treat this as a reference value.
Related Articles
- JNTO Visitor Arrivals Explained: Estimate vs Final, August 3.10M
- Korean Arrivals Peak Dec–Feb (29.5%): Kyushu Reviews and Winter ADR
- Fukuoka Sept 2026 Settled ADR: City +21.9%, Business +9.9% YoY
- Okinawa Reviews: Traditional Chinese Leads at 7.9% Ahead of LNY 2027
- Japan Regional Inbound Share 34.8%, Yet Regional Nights Fell 0.9%
- July Foreign Guest Nights −4.6% in Japan: China Is 93% of the Drop
- US Now Tops Japan Inbound at 13.5% — Prefecture Host Map 2026
- Where Taiwanese Visitors Stay in Japan: 54.6% Outside Major Metros
References and Sources
■ Data Sources
Visitor arrivals: JNTO “Visitor Arrivals (September 2026 estimates)”. Guest nights by nationality: Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (September 2026 first preliminary figures, August 2026 second preliminary figures, 2025 final figures). Estimated OCC and settled ADR: MetroEngines Research aggregates (continuous observation of published rates and listed inventory on major booking sites).
■ Calculation Assumptions
Estimated OCC is the stay-date average from September 1 to 30, 2026 for a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on major booking sites. Settled ADR compares prefecture- and segment-level values between finalized months (September 2026 vs. September 2025), with the number of properties shown as N=. The share of China’s decline offset is a simple ratio of each market’s year-on-year change to China’s year-on-year change.
■ Limitations and Caveats
Year-on-year changes in guest nights by nationality are reference values, because the 2026 figures (facilities with 20+ rooms) and the 2025 final figures (facilities with 10+ employees) cover different facilities and populations. August is the latest month with prefecture-level nationality data; September prefecture figures have not yet been published. Estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as sold and so tends to run higher than actual room occupancy; because tracking began in March 2026, no year-on-year comparison is made. The relationship between changes in arrivals or stays and rates is a comparison of concurrent movements and does not indicate causation.
- Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), “Visitor Arrivals (September 2026 estimates)” press release (October 21, 2026) [Japanese]
- Press release materials (PDF, appendix) [Japanese] / Visitor arrival statistics: monthly estimates (Excel) [Japanese]
- Japan Tourism Agency, Overnight Travel Statistics Survey: September 2026 (first preliminary) and August 2026 (second preliminary) results, and January–December 2025 (annual final) results (released October 30, 2026) [Japanese]
- Travel Voice, “[Charts] Foreign visitors to Japan fall 5% to 3.1 million in September 2026, second straight YoY decline; cumulative total tops 30 million” (October 21, 2026) [Japanese]
- Honichi Lab, “[Breaking] September visitor arrivals at 3.1 million; many markets down YoY despite the Asian Games” (October 21, 2026) [Japanese]
- MetroEngines Research — settled ADR (by prefecture and segment, September 2026 finalized month) and occupancy (OTA-listed inventory basis, estimate; September 2026 stay dates)