The HotelBank Editorial Team examined booking curves as of November 12, 2026 for lodging demand in Toyooka City, Hyogo, around November 6 — the customary opening day of the snow crab (zuwai-gani) fishing season. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for Saturday, November 7, the first Saturday after the opener, stood at just 84.9% 10 days before the stay date — 11.4pt below Saturday, November 21, the first night of the 3-day holiday weekend, which had reached 96.3% at the same 10-day mark. November 7 added 7.2pt over its final 10 days to land at 92.1% the day before arrival, but still fell short of the 96.4% recorded for October 31, the last Saturday before the opener. This article lays out how the weekends at the start of crab season split into “dates that fill late” and “dates whose shape is set 45 days out,” and considers how to prepare for the final days before arrival and how to sell the last night of the 3-day weekend.

Scope: all properties (hotels and ryokan) in Toyooka City, Hyogo — N=83–95 properties / 1,563–1,663 rooms (varies by stay date; based on listings on major booking sites). The price metric in this article is the estimated settled ADR (the transacted price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions for both are given at the end of the article. Data as of: November 12, 2026.

The Saturday After the Opener Was at 84.9% 10 Days Out — 20pt Behind the Holiday Weekend’s First Night at the 45-Day Mark

Let us start by isolating Saturdays and overlaying estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) from 45 days before the stay date to the most recent observation. Toyooka City encompasses Kinosaki Onsen as well as Takeno, Izushi and Kannabe, and Matsuba crab landed at Tsuiyama Port is the mainstay of its winter demand. The snow crab fishery off the San’in coast customarily opens on November 6, with the season running until March 20 of the following year. In 2026, November 6 fell on a Friday, making the 7th the first Saturday after the opener.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

The shape of the curve differed sharply by stay date. Saturday, November 21, the first night of the 3-day weekend, had already reached 93.8% 45 days out, and added only +2.5pt to reach 96.3% at 10 days out. By contrast, Saturday, November 7 stood at 73.4% 45 days out — 20.4pt behind the holiday weekend’s first night at the same point. It progressed to 80.9% at 30 days and 84.9% at 10 days, but the gap narrowed only to 11.4pt.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

It would be premature, however, to read November 7 as a “weak Saturday.” Its pickup from 45 days out to the day before arrival was +18.7pt, close to the +20.2pt for October 31 and +20.7pt for October 24. The difference lay in where it landed: day-before estimated OCC was 95.2% for October 24 and 96.4% for October 31, versus 92.1% for November 7 — 3 to 4pt lower. At least in terms of absorbing listed inventory, falling on the day after the opener did not translate into stronger demand than an autumn-foliage Saturday.

Saturday, November 14, the second week of the season, looks different. It tracked a notch above November 7 — 80.0% at 45 days, 85.7% at 30 days, 89.6% at 10 days — and reached 91.7% 3 days out. At the same 3-day mark, November 7 was at 86.2% and October 31 at 91.3%, so November 14 has essentially returned to the trajectory of the pre-opener Saturdays. The sequence in which the weekends after the opening weekend fill sooner than the opening weekend itself is worth keeping in mind when thinking about how the season ramps up. The same sequence was observed at ryokan in Awara City, Fukui, which we covered in detail in how Awara Onsen ryokan filled up for the Echizen crab season opener.

The Gap Came from Non-Ryokan Properties — Ryokan Landed at 96.4% Even Right After the Opener

So why did November 7 land lower than the October Saturdays? Splitting by property category brings the picture into focus. Taking only the ryokan among the covered properties (N=55 properties / 952 rooms), November 7 moved from 80.8% at 45 days to 90.3% at 10 days and 96.4% the day before — only 1.5pt below the 97.9% day-before figure for ryokan on October 31 (N=58 properties / 974 rooms).

Subtracting the ryokan component from the all-property figure, day-before estimated OCC for non-ryokan properties (31 properties / 638 rooms) on November 7 was 85.7%, down 8.3pt from 94.0% on October 31 (29 properties / 621 rooms). The pattern suggests that stays aimed at crab cuisine went first to ryokan, which serve dinner, and that non-ryokan properties did not receive as much of the demand on the Saturday right after the opener as they did during foliage season. For ryokan, the opening weekend was a date that filled at a high level; for hotel-type properties, it was a date on which inventory kept moving until the last minute.

On November 21, the first night of the 3-day weekend, ryokan (N=55 properties / 951 rooms) were also at 96.3% 10 days out — the same level as the all-property 96.3%. Holiday weekends fill early regardless of category, while the Saturday right after the opener fills at different speeds by category. That difference is what lies behind the 11.4pt gap noted at the outset.

Pickup in the Final 10 Days Was +7 to +10pt — More Than Half of It Concentrated in the Last 3 Days

Next, let us confirm the late-booking pattern using completed stay dates. The table and chart below line up three points — 10 days out, 3 days out and the day before — for eight stay dates around the opener.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

Pickup from 10 days out to the day before fell within +7.2 to +9.7pt on all 8 dates. Regardless of day of week or whether the date fell before or after the opener, just under 10% of listed inventory was absorbed in the final 10 days. Nor was that pickup spread evenly: the move from 3 days out to the day before accounted for +4.4 to +7.6pt, so on every stay date more than half of the 10-day movement occurred in the last 3 days. For November 7, +5.9pt of the +7.2pt came from 3 days out onward.

Friday, November 6 — opening day itself — followed the same pattern. After progressing from 68.3% at 45 days to 79.8% at 10 days, it climbed late to 83.8% at 3 days and 89.5% the day before. Toyooka City ran at a high monthly average of 89.5% in October (N=84–89 properties), and the 11 days from November 1 to 11 also landed between 88.5% and 96.2% as of the day before arrival. In a market that stays high even on weekdays, when and on what terms the last 10% of inventory is sold tends to be where differences in rate emerge.

Only the Last Night of the 3-Day Weekend Is 12pt Lower — 11/23 at 84.1% vs 96.6% for the First Night and 95.3% for the Middle Night

From here we turn to the current status of upcoming stay dates. For the 3-day weekend that includes Labor Thanksgiving Day (Monday, November 23), aligning the November 11 observations at the same 12-days-out cross-section shows the first night (November 21) at 96.6% and the middle night (the 22nd) at 95.3%, while the last night (the 23rd) was at 84.1%. That is 12.5pt below the first night and 11.2pt below the middle night: of the weekend’s three nights, only the last is moving differently.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

The last night’s curve itself is not sluggish. It has risen from 74.9% at 45 days to 78.2% at 30 days and 84.1% at 12 days — +9.2pt since 45 days out. For comparison at the same 12-days-out point, Culture Day (Tuesday, November 3, a national holiday) was at 81.7% and November 9, the first Monday after the opener, at 84.0%; they went on to land at 90.0% and 92.8% respectively the day before arrival. The last night’s current position is at or above where those dates stood 12 days out. Because the night of a holiday is followed by a working day, extended stays are hard to grow, but there appears to be as much room as on a weekday to fill through last-minute bookings. Our analysis tracking the eve and last night of the same 3-day weekend for Toyooka ryokan only, Toyooka ryokan over the Labor Thanksgiving 3-day weekend: 95.7% on the first night, 85.5% on the last, is also a useful reference when preparing for the last night.

Turning to December Saturdays, the same “late-filling pattern” seen right after the opener continues. Saturday, December 12 progressed +8.6pt from 75.2% at 45 days to 83.8% at 31 days; Saturday, December 5 reached 89.0% at 24 days, and Saturday, November 28 reached 89.2% at 17 days. All of these reflect current sales status and may change as bookings evolve. None of them had exceeded 90% at 45 days out the way the holiday weekend’s first night did, which makes December Saturdays a phase in which a sales design that anticipates late-booking movement is meaningful.

The Seasonal Price Shape — ¥19,155 Final for October vs a Current Estimate of ¥31,213 for December

Finally, let us check the pricing yardstick using monthly estimated settled ADR. The final figure for October 2026 across all properties in Toyooka City was ¥19,155 (N=98), up 1.2% from ¥18,932 (N=98) in the same month a year earlier. Once crab season begins, the level steps up sharply: in 2025, December came in at ¥32,776 (N=99) versus ¥18,932 for October — roughly 1.73x.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

November 2026 is at ¥26,971 (N=97) and December at ¥31,213 (N=95); both are estimates based on current sales status and may change. November is best evaluated once the month-end figure is final. For December, too, a straight comparison with the prior year’s final figure should wait until the month closes, but the seasonal shape itself is pointing in the same direction as last year. In a market where occupancy is pinned at a high level, there is limited room to chase volume. Differences in revenue are more likely to arise from which dates — and which room types — the switch to season rates is applied to. Our comparison of opening-weekend pricing across the four prefectures of Hyogo, Tottori, Fukui and Ishikawa, Crab season opener 2026: ryokan priced up to 44% above October Saturdays on the first weekend, also provides material for deciding when to make that switch.

For Revenue Managers at Toyooka Ryokan and Hotels — Implications and Action Plan

The above organizes options that can be read from market data and does not promise any particular outcome. Please select among them in light of your property’s guest mix and channel composition.

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Crab-Season Weekends

To sum up, the movement around the opener in Toyooka City can be captured in three points. First, among peak dates there are “dates whose shape is set 45 days out” and “dates that fill late”: the first night of the 3-day weekend (93.8% at 45 days) belonged to the former, while the Saturday right after the opener (73.4% at the same point) and the December Saturdays belonged to the latter. Second, pickup in the final 10 days was a stable +7 to +10pt, with more than half of it concentrated in the last 3 days. Third, the last night of the holiday weekend sits 11–12pt below the first and middle nights, but is pacing no worse than weekdays and holidays at the same point.

The key takeaway from these observations is that the sequence of days of the week and differences in property category shaped how bookings came in more than the opening date itself did. Making a habit of comparing your property with the market at four cross-sections — 45, 30, 10 and 3 days out — will provide a yardstick that can be used throughout a season that runs until the fishery closes on March 20.

About the Data

References and Sources