For business hotels in Nara Prefecture, prices move more between November and December — when the autumn foliage season ends — than at any other point in the year. According to figures compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team as of November 10, 2026, the estimated settled ADR was ¥11,074 in November 2025 and ¥8,022 in December 2025, a drop of −27.6% in a single month. The year before, it fell from ¥10,775 to ¥7,626 (−29.2%), almost exactly the same magnitude. Meanwhile, when we line up the estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) for this year’s December stay dates as of 45 days before arrival, occupancy does not collapse the moment December begins; instead it steps down week by week — 68.3%, 63.1%, 56.2%, 51.2%. In this article we overlay the “size of the drop” with the “order in which dates soften” and show how far, and when, to adjust post-foliage pricing at three checkpoints: T-45, T-30 and T-14.
Scope: business hotels in Nara Prefecture. Estimated OCC: N=22 properties, 2,613 rooms (listed on major booking sites; 21 properties / 2,565 rooms for December 5 and 6). Estimated settled ADR: N=31–33 properties. The price metric in this article is the estimated settled ADR (the settled-price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of: November 10, 2026.
• ADR (average daily rate) = estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying a segment-specific correction factor to the lowest plan level each property publishes on OTAs (per-room rate for two guests, tax included). Benchmarked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual settled prices and accounting figures.
• Area-level (prefecture / municipality) ADR is the median of the estimated settled rates of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for two guests (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracking OTA public prices for approx. 168,000 properties in Japan, of which approx. 27,000 have verified occupancy data)
- — −29.2% / −27.6% The November→December drop in estimated settled ADR for Nara business hotels (confirmed figures for 2024 and 2025). The 2026 estimate, ¥15,721→¥11,363, shows the same ratio at −27.7%
- — Second only to Kyoto Among Kansai prefectures, only Nara and Kyoto (−39.4% / −38.8%) fell by 20% or more in both years. Osaka and Shiga stayed within −10%
- — 68.3%→51.2% The 45-day-out estimated OCC for December 2026 stay dates (as of November 10, 2026) declines in weekly steps rather than collapsing on December 1
- — Sat, December 12: 82.2% The 45-day-out estimated OCC on Nara Marathon 2026 registration day exceeds Kyoto (65.9%) and Osaka (59.5%). A date to manage separately from a flat December rate
- — −49.0% Cutting to last December’s confirmed ¥8,022 would mean this drop versus the November estimate — deeper than a Kyoto-level drop (−39.1%). A band of around −28% versus November follows the shape of the past two years
November→December Estimated Settled ADR — A Seasonal Drop of “About 30%” Two Years Running
Let us start with the seasonal shape of prices. The estimated settled ADR of Nara business hotels follows a twin-peak pattern, with peaks in April (spring) and November (autumn) and troughs in June–July and December–February. The descent from November to December is particularly steep: on confirmed figures, 2024 went from ¥10,775 to ¥7,626 (−29.2%, N=33) and 2025 from ¥11,074 to ¥8,022 (−27.6%, N=32). The following January fell further, to ¥7,372 (January 2025) and ¥7,795 (January 2026), meaning that from a November baseline the market moves to a level roughly 30% lower by the new year.
The level itself, however, has stepped up from last year. Year-on-year comparisons of confirmed months show September 2026 at ¥9,035, +14.5% (vs. ¥7,888 a year earlier), and October at ¥11,532, +21.2% (vs. ¥9,512), with growth widening into the autumn. October’s ¥11,532 already exceeds last year’s foliage-peak November figure of ¥11,074.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
November onward this year is not yet confirmed, but estimates based on current sales are ¥15,721 for November, ¥11,363 for December and ¥9,404 for January 2027 (all N=31). These values may change with future sales, so a simple comparison against last year’s confirmed figures should wait until month-end confirmation. With that caveat, comparing the estimates with each other, the November→December drop is −27.7%, almost the same ratio as the confirmed figures of the past two years. Even with the higher level, the shape of “December at a little over 70% of November” appears intact.
| Season | November | December | Nov→Dec drop | Following January | N (properties) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 → Jan 2025 | ¥10,775 | ¥7,626 | −29.2% | ¥7,372 | 33 | Confirmed |
| Nov 2025 → Jan 2026 | ¥11,074 | ¥8,022 | −27.6% | ¥7,795 | 32 | Confirmed |
| Nov 2026 → Jan 2027 | ¥15,721 | ¥11,363 | −27.7% | ¥9,404 | 31 | Estimate based on current sales |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The yardstick this yields is simple. When setting December rate bands, anchoring on “the ratio to your own November actuals” rather than “last December’s absolute rate” makes it easier to align with this year’s market, whose level has stepped up. So from which December dates should that adjustment take effect? Next, we look at how bookings progress.
Estimated OCC 45 Days Out — December Doesn’t Drop All at Once; It Steps Down Week by Week
Lining up each date’s estimated OCC on the same yardstick — 45 days before the stay date (OTA-listed inventory basis, N=22 properties / 2,613 rooms) — reveals the boundary between the foliage season and December. The 20 days from November 11–30 averaged 75.5%, versus 60.4% for the 24 days from December 1–24, a gap of about 15pt. Looking only at Monday–Thursday weekdays, November’s 74.3% compares with December’s 57.7%, widening the gap further.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
What deserves attention is that the decline is not a cliff at December 1. Tracking weekly averages, occupancy goes from 77.6% for November 23–29 to 68.3% for November 30–December 6, 63.1% for December 7–13, 56.2% for the 14th–20th and 51.2% for the 21st–24th, falling 5–9pt each week. The first week of December still carries the afterglow of the foliage season: Saturday, December 5 stood at 74.9% at 45 days out, above Saturday, November 14 (71.1%).
| Stay week (Mon–Sun) | 45-day-out estimated OCC, weekly average | Highest day | Lowest day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16–22 | 78.5% | Sat, Nov 21: 88.7% | Wed, Nov 18: 68.5% |
| Nov 23–29 | 77.6% | Fri, Nov 27: 82.7% | Mon, Nov 23 (holiday): 71.8% |
| Nov 30–Dec 6 | 68.3% | Sat, Dec 5: 74.9% | Fri, Dec 4: 64.4% |
| Dec 7–13 | 63.1% | Sat, Dec 12: 82.2% | Wed, Dec 9: 54.2% |
| Dec 14–20 | 56.2% | Wed, Dec 16: 60.5% | Sun, Dec 20: 52.4% |
| Dec 21–24 (4 days) | 51.2% | Mon, Dec 21: 51.5% | Tue, Dec 22 & Thu, Dec 24: 51.0% |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
On the other hand, 14 of December’s 24 days were below 60% at 45 days out, and from the 14th onward even Saturday the 19th stood at only 55.7%. The exception is Saturday, December 12 at 82.2%, which stands out even against the neighboring Saturdays (74.9% on the 5th and 55.7% on the 19th). A likely factor is that Nara Marathon 2026 (奈良マラソン2026) is held the next day, Sunday the 13th, and runner registration is limited to the day before, Saturday the 12th (official race website, “Race Guidelines”). Bundling December into a single rate band makes it easy to miss the gap between this date and the weekdays from the third week onward. The pattern of race-eve bookings running ahead was also covered in our analysis of Kobe Marathon 2026 in Kobe’s Chuo Ward.
Three Points on the Booking Curve — The Foliage Season Builds Steadily, December Weekdays Pick Up Late
Beyond the 45-day-out level, how much is added from that point is also an input to pricing decisions. Averaging the 13 stay dates from November 11–23, estimated OCC was 74.6% at 45 days out, 80.8% at 30 days out and 87.5% at 14 days out, building by +6.2pt in the first half and +6.7pt in the second. Saturday, November 21 — the first day of a foliage-season three-day weekend — went from 88.7% at 45 days out to 95.3% at 30 days and 99.3% at 14 days, reaching 99.5% at the most recent observation, 12 days out. The tendency for the first day of a long weekend to fill early was also confirmed in our booking curve analysis of Nara’s October three-day weekend.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
December stay dates are still being observed, but differences are already emerging. Saturday, December 5 rose from 74.9% at 45 days out to 80.2% at 30 days and 82.3% at 26 days — a slope close to that of Saturday, November 28 at the same points (79.1% at 45 days → 86.6% at 30 days). Saturday, December 12 has held at a high level, from 82.2% at 45 days out to 84.5% at 33 days. In contrast, Saturday, December 19 stood at 55.7% at 45 days and 60.4% at 40 days, a starting point roughly 19–27pt lower.
| Stay date | 45 days out | 30 days out | 14 days out | Latest observation | Gain from 45 days out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 21 — first day of foliage-season 3-day weekend | 88.7% | 95.3% | 99.3% | 99.5% (12 days out) | +10.8pt |
| Sun, Nov 22 | 83.0% | 88.0% | 96.5% | 95.8% (13 days out) | +12.8pt |
| Sat, Nov 28 | 79.1% | 86.6% | — | 93.6% (19 days out) | +14.5pt |
| Sat, Dec 5 | 74.9% | 80.2% | — | 82.3% (26 days out) | +7.4pt |
| Wed, Dec 9 | 54.2% | 65.7% | — | 65.7% (30 days out) | +11.5pt |
| Sat, Dec 12 — Nara Marathon eve | 82.2% | — | — | 84.5% (33 days out) | +2.3pt |
| Sun, Dec 13 | 69.0% | — | — | 70.1% (34 days out) | +1.1pt |
| Sat, Dec 19 | 55.7% | — | — | 60.4% (40 days out) | +4.7pt |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Another takeaway is that December weekdays follow a “start low, pick up late” pattern. Monday, December 7 to Wednesday the 9th were at 54.2–59.1% at 45 days out, rising 9.5–11.5pt to 65.7–68.7% by 30 days out. That is a larger gain than the early-November average (+6.2pt from 45 to 30 days out), so moving prices based only on the low 45-day reading risks taking in later demand at a discount. In sum, December is a market where “the starting point differs by date, and weekdays leave room to wait until 30 days out before deciding.” For the basics of reading booking curves, see What Is a Booking Curve? How to Read Booking Pace.
Comparing Kansai Prefectures — Nara’s “About 30%” Is Second Only to Kyoto
Is Nara’s November→December drop unusually large, or a seasonal shape common across Kansai? We check by lining it up against neighboring prefectures on the same estimated settled ADR basis (business hotels, tax-excluded equivalent) (Table 4). On confirmed figures, only Nara and Kyoto fell by 20% or more from November to December in both years. Kyoto was even deeper than Nara at −39.4% (2024) and −38.8% (2025); Osaka was −0.9% and −8.7%, Shiga −6.0% and −9.9%, and Wakayama and Mie stayed within roughly ±5%. The ranking shows that the more autumn tourism demand lifts rates in a prefecture, the deeper its December drop — so Nara’s “about 30%” reads as the shape of a foliage-tourism market.
| Prefecture | Nov→Dec 2024 (confirmed) | Drop | Nov→Dec 2025 (confirmed) | Drop | Nov→Dec 2026 (estimate) | Drop | N (properties) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nara | ¥10,775→¥7,626 | −29.2% | ¥11,074→¥8,022 | −27.6% | ¥15,721→¥11,363 | −27.7% | 31–33 |
| Kyoto | ¥21,079→¥12,772 | −39.4% | ¥21,610→¥13,224 | −38.8% | ¥25,626→¥14,258 | −44.4% | 305–321 |
| Osaka | ¥10,035→¥9,940 | −0.9% | ¥11,554→¥10,546 | −8.7% | ¥11,625→¥10,559 | −9.2% | 487–499 |
| Hyogo | ¥7,386→¥7,194 | −2.6% | — (*) | — | ¥11,218→¥10,542 | −6.0% | 157–167 |
| Wakayama | ¥5,969→¥6,144 | +2.9% | ¥6,441→¥6,253 | −2.9% | ¥9,892→¥9,727 | −1.7% | 67–71 |
| Shiga | ¥7,122→¥6,692 | −6.0% | ¥7,859→¥7,078 | −9.9% | ¥11,528→¥10,016 | −13.1% | 78–83 |
| Mie | ¥6,452→¥6,506 | +0.8% | ¥6,883→¥6,540 | −5.0% | ¥9,807→¥9,766 | −0.4% | 88–97 |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
*For Hyogo, November 2025 is a thin-coverage month in which only 22 properties were covered by the estimated settled ADR — well below 60% of the usual count (approx. 167) — so its drop is not shown. November and December 2026 are estimates based on current sales and cannot be compared directly with confirmed figures (shown only as a comparison between estimates).
Booking pace also shows distinctive features versus neighboring prefectures (Table 5). Lining up Saturday stay dates by 45-day-out estimated OCC (as of November 10, 2026), the decline from November 21 to December 19 was 33.0pt in Nara, 28.4pt in Kyoto and 14.4pt in Osaka — Nara’s drop was the steepest. On the other hand, Nara’s 82.2% on Saturday, December 12 is 16–23pt above Kyoto (65.9%) and Osaka (59.5%). This is Nara Marathon 2026 registration day, but since Shiga is also high at 80.6%, it should be noted that Nara’s strength cannot be attributed entirely to pre-race stays.
| Prefecture | N (properties) | Nov 21 | Nov 28 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 | Dec 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nara | 22 | 88.7% | 79.1% | 74.9% | 82.2% | 55.7% |
| Kyoto | 195–200 | 93.1% | 83.0% | 74.8% | 65.9% | 64.7% |
| Osaka | 302–308 | 70.8% | 65.5% | 59.3% | 59.5% | 56.4% |
| Shiga | 43 | 89.5% | 83.2% | 70.7% | 80.6% | 67.4% |
| Wakayama | 29–31 | 91.4% | 75.8% | 62.7% | 59.5% | 72.0% |
| Mie | 64 | 96.6% | 69.1% | 76.0% | 59.7% | 80.4% |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
December Rate-Band Guide — Three Scenarios and a Two-Axis Sensitivity Table
We now turn the drops in Tables 1 and 4 into a yardstick for setting December rate bands. Using November 2026’s estimated settled ADR of ¥15,721 (N=31, an estimate based on current sales) as the baseline, we set three scenarios by drop size (Table 6). At the past-two-year average (−28.4%), December would be ¥11,256, nearly overlapping the current December estimate of ¥11,363. Cutting to last December’s confirmed ¥8,022, by contrast, corresponds to −49.0% versus the November estimate — about 10pt below even a deep Kyoto-level drop (−39.1%, ¥9,574). Using last year’s absolute rate as the target would mean cutting deeper than Kyoto, the prefecture with the largest drop in Kansai.
| Scenario | Nov→Dec drop | December level | Difference vs. current December estimate ¥11,363 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shallow drop (Shiga 2025 level) | −9.9% | ¥14,165 | +24.7% |
| Past-two-year average (mid) | −28.4% | ¥11,256 | −0.9% |
| Deep drop (Kyoto two-year average) | −39.1% | ¥9,574 | −15.7% |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Since a property’s own November actuals often do not match the market median, Table 7 lets you read off a December guide on two axes: November level and drop rate. For example, a property with November actuals of ¥14,000 would land at ¥9,912–¥10,136 in December with a past-two-year drop, and ¥8,526 even with a deep Kyoto-level drop. The values are simple guides that apply the market’s drop rates and are meant to be adjusted up or down according to your own booking pace (compared against Tables 2 and 3).
| Your November actuals | −10.0% | −20.0% | −27.6% (2025) | −29.2% (2024) | −39.1% (Kyoto level) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ¥10,000 | ¥9,000 | ¥8,000 | ¥7,240 | ¥7,080 | ¥6,090 |
| ¥12,000 | ¥10,800 | ¥9,600 | ¥8,688 | ¥8,496 | ¥7,308 |
| ¥14,000 | ¥12,600 | ¥11,200 | ¥10,136 | ¥9,912 | ¥8,526 |
| ¥16,000 | ¥14,400 | ¥12,800 | ¥11,584 | ¥11,328 | ¥9,744 |
| ¥18,000 | ¥16,200 | ¥14,400 | ¥13,032 | ¥12,744 | ¥10,962 |
Source: Estimated by HotelBank Editorial Team based on drop rates from MetroEngines Research
For Revenue Managers at Nara Business Hotels — Implications and Action Plan
1. Measure “how far to cut” against November, not last year’s absolute rate. On confirmed figures for the past two years, the November→December drop was nearly constant at −27.6% and −29.2%, and the current estimate is −27.7%. This year, with the market level stepping up (+14.5% in September, +21.2% in October), targeting last December’s ¥8,022 risks cutting too far. Setting a ceiling at a band of roughly 30% or less below your own November actuals is an effective approach.
2. Look at “when to cut” week by week, not from December 1. The 45-day-out estimated OCC stepped down from 68.3% for the week of November 30–December 6 to 63.1% the next week and 56.2% the week after. The first week of December — especially Saturday the 5th — has kept pace close to the foliage season, leaving room to stage rate changes week by week rather than fixing the switch at the start of the month.
3. Don’t finalize December weekdays on 45-day-out numbers. December 7–9 gained 9.5–11.5pt between 45 and 30 days out. A sequence worth considering: compare your booking pace for the same period against this market gain, hold rates if you are keeping up with the market, and adjust only the dates where pickup is clearly slower.
4. Treat Saturday, December 12 as a separate date. At 82.2% 45 days out, it is 26.5pt above the 55.7% of Saturday the 19th, another December Saturday. Race-eve dates tend to generate pre-race stays due to registration requirements, and managing this date separately from a flat December setting allows you to sell at a level that matches its strong demand.
The table below maps the above onto a timeline. Taking the data date of November 10 as the reference, T-45 corresponds to late-December stay dates, T-30 to mid-December and T-14 to late-November stay dates.
| Checkpoint | Action | Decision trigger (figures in this article) | Objective |
|---|---|---|---|
| T-45 (this week: stay dates from December 21) | Consider decoupling late-December rates from November levels and setting a band that builds in the seasonal drop in advance | Market 45-day-out estimated OCC averages only 56.2% for December 14–20 and 51.2% for the 21st–24th. The November→December drop over the past two years was −27.6% to −29.2% | Set the ceiling on cuts first and avoid additional last-minute discounts |
| T-45 (same) | Manage Saturday, December 12 separately from ordinary Saturdays | 82.2% at 45 days out and 84.5% at 33 days out — well above the following Saturday (December 19) at 55.7% | Keep race-eve demand out of a flat December rate |
| T-30 (this week to next: weekdays December 7–18) | For weekdays that looked weak at 45 days out, decide the size of any adjustment after checking progress at 30 days out | December 7–9 rose 9.5–11.5pt from 54.2–59.1% at 45 days out to 65.7–68.7% at 30 days out. Check whether your own pickup falls short of this | Separate dates that can wait for late demand from those that cannot |
| T-30 (same) | Review whether Saturday, December 5 can hold November’s rate band | 80.2% at 30 days out and 82.3% at 26 days out, close to foliage-season Saturday November 28 at 86.6% (30 days out) | Revisit “cut everything once December starts” settings |
| T-14 (late November: first-week-of-December stay dates) | Decide how to release remaining inventory, assuming pickup over the final two weeks | The average of 13 stay dates from November 11–23 went from 80.8% at 30 days out to 87.5% at 14 days out (+6.7pt). Check whether your first week of December reaches this slope | Limit last-minute discounts to dates where pace falls below the slope |
| After T-14 (toward January) | Set January rate bands early while watching December results | Last year, December ¥8,022 → January ¥7,795, with January a further step lower. The current estimate also shows December ¥11,363 → January ¥9,404 | Anticipate the new-year trough and avoid carrying December over-cutting into January |
All of the above are guides based on the market-wide average picture; the optimal answer for your property will differ by location and guest mix. Use the market curve as a baseline for understanding “which way your property deviates.”
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Post-Foliage Pricing
Post-foliage pricing at Nara business hotels can be organized around three yardsticks. First, the drop: on confirmed figures, the November→December estimated settled ADR fell about 30% — −27.6% (2025) and −29.2% (2024). Second, the order: the 45-day-out estimated OCC declines week by week — 68.3% in the first week of December, 63.1% in the second and 56.2% in the third — rather than collapsing at the start of the month. Third, the exceptions: Saturday, December 5 and Saturday, December 12, the eve of the Nara Marathon, show pace close to the foliage season.
This year, with levels stepped up from last year, “keeping the same ratio to November” fits the market’s shape better than “cutting to the same amount as last year.” On top of that, choose the dates to cut by week and day of week, and move on weekdays only after checking pace at 30 days out. Reviewing the December calendar in this order is the starting point for protecting post-foliage revenue.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. How much do rates at Nara business hotels fall in December?
A. On confirmed estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent), the November→December drop was ¥10,775→¥7,626 in 2024 (−29.2%, N=33) and ¥11,074→¥8,022 in 2025 (−27.6%, N=32). For 2026, the estimate based on current sales is ¥15,721→¥11,363 (−27.7%, N=31), almost the same ratio as the past two years.
Q. Should December discounts start uniformly from December 1?
A. Based on how the market is progressing, staging changes week by week is closer to reality than switching uniformly at the start of the month. As of November 10, 2026, the 45-day-out estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) declined each week: an average of 68.3% for November 30–December 6, 63.1% for December 7–13, 56.2% for the 14th–20th and 51.2% for the 21st–24th. Saturday, December 5 was at 74.9% 45 days out, close to the foliage season.
Q. How should Saturday, December 12 — the eve of the Nara Marathon — be handled?
A. It is a date to manage separately from a flat December setting. As of November 10, 2026, estimated OCC was 82.2% at 45 days out and 84.5% at 33 days out, 26.5pt above the following Saturday, December 19 (55.7% at 45 days out). Nara Marathon 2026 is held on Sunday, December 13, and runner registration is only on Saturday the 12th (official race website). However, Shiga is also high on the same date at 80.6% (45 days out), so not all of it can be attributed to pre-race stays.
Q. Is Nara’s December drop large compared with other Kansai prefectures?
A. Yes, it is among the largest. On confirmed figures, only Nara and Kyoto fell by 20% or more from November to December in both 2024 and 2025, with Kyoto even deeper at −39.4% and −38.8%. Osaka was −0.9% and −8.7%, Shiga −6.0% and −9.9%, and Wakayama and Mie stayed within roughly ±5%.
Q. What are estimated settled ADR and estimated OCC?
A. Estimated settled ADR is the settled-price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated by applying a segment-specific correction factor to the lowest plan level on OTAs; benchmarked against property-level results of listed hotel REITs, its median error is about 7%. Estimated OCC is a listed-inventory-based occupancy rate calculated from remaining OTA-listed rooms and total rooms; because rooms not listed are counted as sold, it tends to read higher than actual room occupancy.
About the Data
| Definition of estimated OCC | OTA-listed inventory occupancy = 100 − 100 × remaining OTA-listed rooms ÷ total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; the N= in the text is that property count). It is an estimate based on the sell-through of inventory sold on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (rooms not listed are counted as sold, so it reads higher). |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest. Stay dates covered: November 11–December 24, 2026. |
| Definition of estimated settled ADR | The settled-price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest plan level × segment factor, ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are confirmed values; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error versus published operating results: 6.6%. |
| Coverage N= | Estimated OCC and booking curves: 22 Nara business hotels, 2,613 rooms (listed on major booking sites; 21 properties / 2,565 rooms for December 5 and 6). Estimated settled ADR: Nara business hotels — 33 properties in 2024 (32 in March only), 32–33 in 2025, 31–33 for January–October 2026, and 31 for November 2026–January 2027. |
| Data as of | Data as of: November 10, 2026. Sales and inventory change daily, so the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. |
References and Sources
■ Data Sources
MetroEngines Research estimated settled ADR (business hotels in Nara, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Wakayama, Shiga and Mie; monthly, January 2024–January 2027; confirmed months based on sales results, November 2026–January 2027 as estimates based on current sales), and estimated OCC and booking curves (OTA-listed inventory basis; observations from 45 days out to the latest for stay dates November 11–December 24, 2026). Data as of November 10, 2026.
■ Calculation Assumptions
Table 6 applies drop rates of −9.9% (Shiga 2025), −28.4% (average of Nara 2024 and 2025) and −39.1% (average of Kyoto 2024 and 2025) to the November 2026 estimated settled ADR of ¥15,721. Table 7 is a simple guide that multiplies a property’s November actuals (¥10,000–¥18,000) by the same drop rates and does not reflect changes in demand or sales channel mix. Weekly and period averages are simple averages of each stay date’s values.
■ Limitations and Caveats
Estimated settled ADR from November 2026 onward will change with sales and cannot be compared with confirmed values. Estimated OCC is based on OTA-listed inventory and counts suspended or unlisted rooms as sold, so it reads higher than actual room occupancy. Hyogo’s November 2025 was excluded from comparison because its property count fell below 60% of the usual level. December stay dates are still being observed; values at 30 and 14 days out will be filled in by future observations.
■ References
Nara Marathon 2026 Race Guidelines (Nara Marathon Organizing Committee) — Race date (Sunday, December 13, 2026; runner registration on Saturday, December 12)
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